tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post1738744214068791606..comments2023-04-03T02:23:21.185+01:00Comments on The Football Analyst: Intelligent Risk TakingGraeme Dandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-11146503624288944172012-06-18T16:29:37.130+01:002012-06-18T16:29:37.130+01:00Hi Rowan.
Apologies for the delay in responding m...Hi Rowan.<br /><br />Apologies for the delay in responding mate, was determined to finish the Euro systems download document at the weekend, so didn’t really read your comments until today. I need time to digest your comments! ;)<br /><br />Having read your comments, I think it’s safe to say we’re both on the same wavelength completely. I think the one point you make which I missed in my post is something I’ve said elsewhere a few times. There is such a big drop-off needed from making a profit to a achieving a loss on the systems, I take great comfort from this fact and I think others should too. As you say, a disappointing season next season is probably a small profit, rather than a gigantic loss on the systems, touch wood. <br /><br />I’ve given the new UK systems from last season a lot of stick since they went live and yes, they have disappointed me but 10 of the 11 systems achieved an ROI of 3%+ last season. As picked up during the system reviews, some of the ROC’s were actually very decent due to the low level of volatility on many of these new systems meaning the banks were fairly low. Hence, with hindsight, it wasn’t anywhere near as bad as it seemed on these systems. I got too sucked in by the low ROI and of course, by comparing the returns to my other systems.<br /><br />It’s hard to say what I want these Euro systems to achieve next season. As long as the UK systems do well again, I’d take any sort of profit on the Euro systems as a bonus. Of course, if the UK systems don’t do well, it will be a poor season, regardless of what the Euro systems do. Hence, my preference of course is for the UK systems to do well first and foremost but I suspect that view is shared by everyone following, regardless of how many of us dabble with the Euro systems next season. <br /><br />The risk:reward ratio will vary for every individual as it depends on your risk aversion ultimately but I’m sure I won’t be alone in dabbling with a few of the Euro systems next season. At the very least, it means I have an interest in even more games taking place next season!<br /><br />I reckon there may be 500 system bets some weekends. Should be fun trying to keep track of all of them over a weekend. lol<br /><br />Can’t wait. :)<br /><br />Graeme<br />PS. I reckon that blog post was my longest ever (that's saying something for me!) but your reply was the longest I'd ever seen on a blog post too. You should really get a blog with your writing skills. Oh, wait a minute....Graeme Dandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-72458180161299467472012-06-16T10:20:02.354+01:002012-06-16T10:20:02.354+01:00....
Thirdly, re. not following and falling behin.......<br /><br />Thirdly, re. not following and falling behind the curve. I'm not too concerned personally about potentially missing out on profits with a view to following once there is a season of "live" performance to give that bit more confidence. But I also think it would be a shame to miss out entirely, IF there is sufficient evidence to suggest that by taking a calculated risk by following, there is a good chance of profits being made. The emphasis being on the word 'calculated'. What suggests to me that the risk may well be worth taking are the similarities in performance to the UK systems that became apparent during the development of the Euro systems. Perhaps it is coincidence, but reading your blog posts, I simply don't believe it is. So we have one, proven analyst, developing new systems using similar methodologies to those that have already been proven to be extremely successful, coming up with something that produces extremely similar results. You see where I'm coming from.<br /><br />One other point. As you know, I followed your UK systems in their first live season, and did rather well. So, a) if I was prepared to do that with the UK systems, what logical reason is there for not doing so with the Euro systems now that I've seen the UK systems perform so superbly, bearing in mind the paragraph above? And, b) as a (hopefully) wiser gambler now, I'd not bugger up in the same way as I did when following the UK systems in their first live season by tinkering with staking, changing which system I followed, etc. Still made great profits in that first season, but not as great as they should have been. Lesson learnt, and by learning it, I'm sure that even if the Euro systems didn't live up to our hopes next season, any losses would be very controlled.<br /><br />Finally (phew!), there's a long way to fall from the roi's quoted - even allowing for the fall between backtested and live results - to produce a loss. My estimation at this stage would be that if the first live season of Euro systems turn out to be disappointing, it would be because the profits made were smaller than hoped as opposed looking at losses.<br /><br />So to my mind the risk:reward ratio, to me anyway, looks like the risk is worth taking. With an older head on my shoulders though, I need to look at staking. Perhaps wading in at full stakes is simply unnecessary at this stage. It would upset that risk:reward calculation.<br /><br />I have a feeling I've just written paragraphs confirming that we're thinking along similar lines! :) Maybe I'm just coming at it from a different angle...that of the punter/follower as opposed to the Systems Analyst/Developer/Owner.<br /><br />Now I'm off for a rest...<br /><br />RowanTPIhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08267151875715791707noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-47453330556123601862012-06-16T10:19:35.010+01:002012-06-16T10:19:35.010+01:00Bingo! I do believe we're on the same wavelen...Bingo! I do believe we're on the same wavelength! :)<br /><br />OK...this is what I'm thinking. <br /><br />When I look at a service or system that potentially I might want to follow financially, I think there are so many more factors to consider other than (or at least, in addition to) what the simple bottom line profit figures say. Let's take for granted that the figures state that a profitable edge has been found.<br /><br />Two of the major factors to consider have got to be: can I get the money down on the selections, and can I get it down at a decent price, ie. before the price is smashed in (or before an intelligent market brings the price in by virtue of being an intelligent market). <br /><br />So when you talk of the ability to get money into the major European markets with little difficulty, which I know from personal experience to be true, and the fact that there are very likely a fewer number of people actually following the Euro systems than the UK systems next season, to my mind, they are both extremely relevant points.<br /><br />I must add though, I'm 100% convinced that by following professionally and diligently, and by having bookmaker accounts set up properly (which is a whole different topic) getting on the UK system selection bets at the correct prices won't be a problem this season coming. <br /><br />Anyway, before I digress further...I am also very aware of the weaknesses that paper trading hold. You're right, without actually putting money on selections, it is near impossible to gauge the ups and downs involved in following. As you know, wherever possible with the footie, I now take an age literally going through each day's past results from a system/service, just to get an idea of the psychology needed to follow it live. Doing this, you see some bad days (remember the day back in the 2010/11 season when West Brom were 3-0 up at half time against West Ham, and drew 3-3 - the day where every other bet seemed to lose aswell?) and you can start to menntally prepare. This is massively important I think, when it comes to gambling. Once all the analysis and poring over figures has been done, it's rendered useless if you can't handle the mental side of following something live.<br /><br />To be continued...TPIhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08267151875715791707noreply@blogger.com