tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post3972089561962114106..comments2023-04-03T02:23:21.185+01:00Comments on The Football Analyst: Ways to play system 7-22Graeme Dandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-63404959102228240912012-05-04T09:38:06.795+01:002012-05-04T09:38:06.795+01:00Hi Fizzer.
Thanks again for the comment.
Yeah, ...Hi Fizzer.<br /><br />Thanks again for the comment. <br /><br />Yeah, I think the thing that is ultimately my downfall in some people’s eyes (too many systems, too many bets) when it comes to attracting new members is actually my greatest asset in many other’s eyes. I knew when I developed my first rating algorithm that I was always going to end up creating another algorithm and therefore, if I’d stopped at systems 6,7,8 and did nothing else, I would still have a set of systems which are comparable with some of the best services in the market doing what I’m doing. <br /><br />However, I’ve taken that a step further and ultimately, it is actually the building of the second algorithm that has got me to where I am at the moment. If I’d just settled on the first algorithm and built more systems based on that, I’d probably end up with a lot more systems similar in return to 6-8 with ROIs of 5%-10%. Again, that’s not bad and before I started building any footie ratings, people were telling me that if I could get a system which had an ROI of around 5%-10%, I’d be doing great.<br /><br />Although I’m only 2 seasons into this project, apart from adding more leagues using the same methodology, I reckon I’ve taken the footie returns to the highest place you’ll see footie returns over a large sample of bets. <br /><br />My next task has to be to replicate this for European Leagues. If I can manage that (it’s a big IF as there are no guarantees in this game), then I think I’ll have achieved what I set out to do with this project within the 3 season timescale I set myself at the outset.<br /><br />My next task has to be getting this out to a wider audience. The footie betting market is a big place and although it’s great that the guys subscribing this season can meet or beat my proofed results, it’s not really sustainable to run a small service when the systems are the best in the market! I’d be as well stopping the service and working in a supermarket at night as I’d earn more per hour than I’ve done to date. <br /><br />I suspect you’ll enjoy the fact I’ll be releasing the historical system results to all members this Summer. Will give you plenty to analyse before next season.<br /><br />Cheers,<br /><br />GraemeGraeme Dandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-85192767018614970442012-05-04T09:17:40.499+01:002012-05-04T09:17:40.499+01:00Hi Rowan.
Thanks for the comment. As usual, you ...Hi Rowan.<br /><br />Thanks for the comment. As usual, you make a lot of good points and I agree with you that depending on the stakes you’re using, you would ultimately adapt the staking plan you are using. <br /><br />Yeah, the drawdown comment is a fair one and I’m not best placed to discuss betting banks as my nature is always going to have you understaking! It’s a funny one as I personally overstake and always have done on these systems but when advising others (especially on this blog!), I get drawn towards a very conservative approach to betting bank. I guess it’s just that I don’t want to be responsible for anyone losing badly, so I try to ensure people are aware of worst case scenarios. As I’ve said all along, people should use a bank they are comfortable with. ;)<br /><br />No analysis is ever perfect and if you look at that table, you’ll see that the drawdown of 7.5pts appears 3 times. Quite simply, the Homes have never had a drawdown that’s been very bad in 6 seasons, so as long as you do something to reduce the variance of the Aways, you can stake more on the Homes and it won’t impact your drawdown. <br /><br />I suspect there is an argument for saying that you can include more Home bets in your portfolio as these tend to be very good bets and due to the less average odds (lower volatility), you could follow something like 7/22 and all 21 homes which in essence would mean you stake 2pts on all 7/22 homes but 1pt on all 21 homes with maybe 1pt AH0 on Aways on 7/22. I suspect you need to get the bet total up a little next season.<br /><br />I’ll do a post on it today but I have my reservations now about 7/22 as a standalone system. It may well be the best system on the planet and the one we’ve all got most faith in but with less than 100 bets a season (only 70 this season), this could break-even for the next 2 seasons and would still be the best system on the planet on overall returns. Definitely something to consider this Summer also. <br /><br />I think it’s good that we can all spend time discussing how to make best use of the systems this Summer rather than trying to find a profitable edge. Not a bad place to be in!<br /><br />GraemeGraeme Dandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-60116454625897197252012-05-04T00:42:50.817+01:002012-05-04T00:42:50.817+01:00Excellent post Graeme.
I think you are spot on i...Excellent post Graeme. <br /><br />I think you are spot on in suggesting that we individually think through how we want to use your systems, and look at the return on capital and levels of risk involved.<br /><br />Your systems are achieving some great results, but managing your own way through them is still key. I prefer to have about 10-20 selections that I will follow with a higher unit stake rather than 50-100 at a lower unit stake even if the 50-100 have achieved a higher % profit.<br /><br />It's definitely part of my pre-season plan to think through how I want to bet your systems next year having followed their performance this year.Fizzer55noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-40977156633289526832012-05-03T21:26:07.042+01:002012-05-03T21:26:07.042+01:00Hi Graeme.
As you know I've been spending a l...Hi Graeme.<br /><br />As you know I've been spending a lot of time recently thinking about the best way of moving forward with a long term aim in mind. You, and anyone who reads my blog, knows that I think this will entail larger stakes being placed on football matches with bookmakers that will take them.<br /><br />With that in mind, as a general principle, I'm looking at increased stakes but lower volatility (not, I hasten to add, that 7/22 has been volatile this season - it hasn't and the suggestion of 2pts home bets and 1pt away was a masterstroke).<br /><br />Looking at that table, one thing smacks you square between the eyes. Amongst nine different ways of staking, the lowest roi achieved is 13%! What a starting point!<br /><br />Added to that, is the fact that the simple, straight 1pt/bet (ie. the method likely to have the highest level of volatility) has a maximum drawdown of just 16pts. Personally, I think 2.5 times the max drawdown for a bank on a system with six years of performance data is a little conservative, but even then, to achieve an ROC averaging just over 100% per season!?!<br /><br />The other thought that occurs to me is that you could easily progress through various staking systems as the bank grows (assuming a reinvestment of profits). The straight 2pt/1pt split has served me very well this season as mentioned, but as stakes get higher, a natural transition might be towards something like the methodolgy at the bottom of the table, where the drawdowns look relatively tiny but the ROC goes through the roof.<br /><br />Like you say, loads to think about.TPIhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08267151875715791707noreply@blogger.com