tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post8945478475738078797..comments2023-04-03T02:23:21.185+01:00Comments on The Football Analyst: Big Weekend Coming Up......Graeme Dandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-37871448549031195682012-03-08T01:47:25.291+00:002012-03-08T01:47:25.291+00:00Well ok I will take the service for free the rest ...Well ok I will take the service for free the rest of the season. No problem :)Pølsenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12115085854631421077noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-56469417273139272762012-03-07T21:19:41.538+00:002012-03-07T21:19:41.538+00:00Hi Jan.
You can't subscribe for the rest of...Hi Jan. <br /><br />You can't subscribe for the rest of this season. The service is closed. It will open up once the season has finished.<br /><br />In the meantime, the bets appear on the blog at 6pm every Friday UK Time and 9am every Tuesday UK time.<br /><br />Hope this makes sense.<br /><br />GraemeGraeme Dandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-45168897233027986912012-03-07T21:03:51.645+00:002012-03-07T21:03:51.645+00:00I don´t get it. Where can I subscribe for the rest...I don´t get it. Where can I subscribe for the rest of the season for your picks?<br /><br />Regards<br /><br />JAnPølsenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12115085854631421077noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-49023526740857923242012-02-27T10:13:49.868+00:002012-02-27T10:13:49.868+00:00Hi Dartguru.
The odds quoted are as you say. 2.75...Hi Dartguru.<br /><br />The odds quoted are as you say. 2.75 is really 1.75/1. Hence, a profit of 1.75 on the bet.<br /><br />As I’ve said before, the odds quoted are the odds at the time I release the bets to email subscribers and not the time of the blog posting clearly. As you will no doubt have noticed this weekend (especially with Hibs and Southport in particular), the odds shortened a fair bit from the odds quoted and if I’m honest, they continued to shorten all the way to kick-off. Hibs were a significant market mover this weekend on the footie as anyone using shot supremacy ratings had to find Hibs as a bet IMO as they were playing much better than it looked on paper and Killie were playing much worse than it looked, so it was the perfect game really. Just annoyed Hibs didn’t appear on even more systems!<br /><br />Cheers,<br /><br />GraemeGraeme Dandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-67555844711110120752012-02-27T09:15:17.439+00:002012-02-27T09:15:17.439+00:00Hi Graeme, a good weekend with one match to go, we...Hi Graeme, a good weekend with one match to go, well done.<br /><br />Can I clarify your odds, ignoring the DNB odds for now...<br /><br />if you say 2.75 for Southport, is that 2.75/1 or 1.75/1<br /><br />TIADartguruhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13319243421688561009noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-55748136097704670002012-02-26T22:21:47.180+00:002012-02-26T22:21:47.180+00:00Hi Bellerophone. (Is that really a Greek name or a...Hi Bellerophone. (Is that really a Greek name or a made up name?)<br /><br />Not sure if anything was too unbelievable this weekend really as it was a good weekend but I've had better this season! As I've said to other recent posters, any plans for next season are still being developed, so you can't join for next season at the moment.<br /><br />As soon as I know what's happening next season, I'll share it on the blog.<br /><br />GraemeGraeme Dandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-2083322318651125072012-02-25T18:15:43.734+00:002012-02-25T18:15:43.734+00:00Unbelievable how do we join for next season
Belle...Unbelievable how do we join for next season<br /><br />BellerophoneHello from Greecenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-57009402222516804582012-02-24T19:34:44.786+00:002012-02-24T19:34:44.786+00:00Hi Eddie.
You've written that comment as if y...Hi Eddie.<br /><br />You've written that comment as if you know something that I don't, so I'd be keen to hear your thoughts. :)<br /><br />I tested out a lot of things (every variable that can be analysed in a game basically) back when I first started out building the first rating algorithm in early 2010 and I did have this sort of idea to look for these sort of trends. Nothing was statistically significant that I could see in terms of trends of win/away/draw %. Likewise, any season that has a high number of homes or aways in the first half doesn't mean that the second half will be the same or the opposite. <br /><br />I think I probably touched on it in my recent post when I said the ratings can never take into account the psychological impact that might become apparent late on in the season. Quite simply, the bookies start underpricing teams who have more to play for and therefore, my ratings end up highlighting the opposition as value. Long-term though, I know that there is still great value there to be had as the return in the second half of the season is still well above 10% historically. Unfortunately, this is well down on the 20%+ that is usually achieved in the first half of the season.<br /><br />I think it's just important that people are aware of this which is why I highlight it constantly. All it means is that you'd never increase stakes as the season progresses and of course, never start following in the second half of the season. Stick to these two rules and you should achieve a good return over the season I expect each season. <br /><br />The last thing I should mention is that the systems get sucked into backing teams at much higher prices as the season approaches the climax which in turn, increases the variance. That's why I discussed AH betting the other day and is why I'll be introducing this next season as an option. I don't really like backing away teams at 4/1+ away from home due to the increased volatility. That's all we're seeing at the moment, increased variance. <br /><br />Hope this makes sense. <br /><br />GraemeGraeme Dandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-48477842895470736692012-02-24T18:19:46.268+00:002012-02-24T18:19:46.268+00:00Hi Graeme
With your bets looking for away wins, p...Hi Graeme<br /><br />With your bets looking for away wins, presumably you've looked at each league on a month-by-month basis on past results to determine whether home wins or away wins fluctuate over the course of a season? For example, do you expect there to be less draws as the seasons get towards the end, with teams looking more urgently for positive results to climb into the top four slots or avoid the bottom four?SoccerDudehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07830266261515231776noreply@blogger.com