tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-64024427223217066272024-03-14T02:52:57.680+00:00The Football AnalystI started out in January 2010 with an idea of developing profitable football systems. Follow my progress as I try to build on the results from the 2010/11 season.Graeme Dandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.comBlogger593125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-79181769417294036022016-01-06T11:34:00.002+00:002016-01-06T11:34:27.558+00:00Monthly Review for December 2015<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">It’s
always hard to write a monthly review for December without looking back at the
year as a whole. Given my ratings and systems have just had their worst ever
month (seems like a consistent theme in the monthly reviews at the moment!),
it’s hard to not think that this might be the last December update that this
blog sees. An absolute disaster of a month which follows a terrible start to
the season for the ratings and systems and overall, the service is on its knees
after December’s performance. 2015 as a whole has been a nightmare for the service.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Personally,
2015 was my first losing year betting since I started taking this semi
seriously in 2008 and I guess I could say I was due it. My footie losses ran
into 5 figures for the year which sort of sums up 2015 for me when it comes to
football betting. There were no hard luck stories, I deserved a decent loss. My
losses were reduced somewhat over the year as a result of other non-football
related activities (horseracing in the Summer and a Twitter tipping game in the
second half of the year) and I suspect if I hadn’t gone down these other
routes, I would probably already be looking for another hobby for 2016 and
beyond. As things stand at the moment, I still think I can make a profit
long-term at this game but it won’t be from simply following the football ratings and systems
like I was doing a few years ago.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">When
you add in that the 2014/15 season was my first losing season at the football
and now the 2015/16 season is loss making also, I have to seriously question
whether or not I’ll continue with betting on footie beyond this season. Being
honest, I was very close to calling it quits at the end of December after a
disaster of a month but I’ve decided to see it through until season end. My
personal betting won’t impact the service and I’ll keep churning out the ratings
and bets for those still following until the end of the season but as I said last month, if you are making
money at this game using my bets, you are definitely not following the systems
or ratings blindly! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">So,
what happened in December? Well, the first half of December wasn’t too bad I
thought. The UK Draw systems started well, the Euro systems were doing OK, the
UK bets were plodding along OK and then boom, we hit mid-December and trying to
find a winner on nearly any system was like finding a needle in a haystack. A
total nightmare and the Festive period in particular hurt like mad as I worked
really hard to get the bets out to everyone, get my bets placed and then
watched in anguish as game after game went the opposite way to what I wanted! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The
UK Draw systems went from being in a decent profit in mid December to losing
all this profit in a couple of weeks. There was a very high number of Draw bets
and unfortunately, they barely bit a winner over a couple of weeks. January has
also started poorly for the Draw systems and given I stake these fairly high
these days, it just adds to the mess my P&L is in this season.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall,
nightmare is the only word I can use to describe December and therefore, it
rounds off a very poor 2015 for my ratings and systems. I thought 2014 wasn’t
great but jeez, compared to 2015, 2014 seemed like it was amazing! It’s clear
that whatever edge I had before is no longer slowly evaporating, it has pretty
much evaporated completely and I think my base systems and ratings are probably
unlikely to return to profitability. New max drawdowns are being set on so many
systems at the moment it’s unreal and therefore, I have to think the days of
being able to simply follow my ratings and systems and be able to make a profit
are gone.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I
think my saving grace this season and probably the only reason I am still
betting on footie is due to system 41! Yes, the system that is heavily loss
making and absolutely hopeless. I was going to drop this system in the Summer
as it had clearly lost whatever edge it had in its first season and was looking
like the worst system I’d ever seen but I think it was Matthew Trenhaile on
Twitter who told me to keep this system as having a losing system can actually
be beneficial long-term. I then cottoned onto the fact that you can use this
system as a filter and the Not 41 system was born. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I
already have the Max 4 system which Tage had noticed and as I showed last
month on the blog, these methods may not be conventional but so far this
season, they have really saved my bacon. Admittedly, it’s a helluva lot of work
to update 4 rating algorithms, filter out bets and then only place bets that
don’t appear too many times or bets that don’t appear on system 41 but so far
this season, they have been my saving grace.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">At
the moment, all 22 UK systems are loss making. All 11 Established Systems and
all 11 New Systems. However, the issue is the fact that the teams which appear
on multiple systems have been doing terribly. Being honest, they have done
terribly for a couple of seasons but this season has really seen them get
worse!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">In
addition, system 41 is having a nightmare season (even worse than anyone could
have expected) and all this means that if you were using system 41 as a filter
or using Max 4 to filter out the multiple bets, you could actually take a set
of systems which have clearly lost their edge and create your own edge.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">My
issue (and I suspect the issue of many reading this who follow the service) is that none of this was
crystallised before this season started. I only started following Not 41 when
it started badly this season and likewise, I didn’t invest too heavily in Max 4
after a poor season last season. Hence, although I have made money from both
these other methods, it doesn’t cover the losses I have from following the
other systems I follow. :(<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">However,
2016 is a New Year and I made the decision to adjust stakes a little (might be
called chasing your losses!) and I’m lucky that January has started OK. Of
course, increasing stakes when you haven’t made a profit for over 2 year seems
like a quick way to the poor house but I have as much confidence in Max 4 and
Not 41 at the moment as I’ve had in any system apart from system 31.
Unfortunately, my confidence in system 31 has resulted in about a 20pt loss so
far this season, so this confidence is fading fast! :(<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s
the updated results for Max 4 and Not 41 this season:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-htW1aeB1Opo/Voz5iPEHTII/AAAAAAAAEYg/wuzTfffuNxU/s1600/Pic%2B1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="448" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-htW1aeB1Opo/Voz5iPEHTII/AAAAAAAAEYg/wuzTfffuNxU/s640/Pic%2B1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Y54n68OB6a8/Voz5nx8TRlI/AAAAAAAAEYo/mkPJwTzZDs8/s1600/Pic%2B2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="336" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Y54n68OB6a8/Voz5nx8TRlI/AAAAAAAAEYo/mkPJwTzZDs8/s640/Pic%2B2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">It
makes me smile that Max4/Not 41 has made 50pts profit this season from 326
bets. System 41 has lost 56.8pts from 414 bets this season. That’s a helluva
swing! Considering every UK system is loss making, seeing Max 4 and Not 41 in
profit highlights just how crazy the losses are on multiple bets.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I’m
sure I hinted at this last month but given how bad the losses are on multiple
bets, this could be the greatest service ever if I simply reversed the bets
where teams appear on multiple systems and continued to back the teams who
don’t appear too often! Not 41 is a step
there but it would be reversing 41 in addition to Not 41! If 41 is going to run
at -10% ROI, then there must be a profit to be made somewhere from the other
side. ;)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Anyway,
I apologise to anyone reading this that has done their bollocks in 2015 on the
footie systems and ratings like I have. I’m sure my 5 figure loss won’t be the
worst loss but you can’t change the past at this game, you can only change the
future. I’m trying to find a way through this for myself and if anyone is still following, hopefully some of musings may help.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Right,
onto December’s losses. This isn’t going to be pretty.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Est Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-hIxgYie_-ls/Voz555twYqI/AAAAAAAAEYw/FDpqPIiWbNE/s1600/Pic%2B3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="108" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-hIxgYie_-ls/Voz555twYqI/AAAAAAAAEYw/FDpqPIiWbNE/s640/Pic%2B3.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Both
algorithms had a nightmare month. System 21 in particular had an amazingly bad
month but system 6 wasn’t much better. System 22 continued the trend this
season of making a worse return than system 21 and the combined systems did
absolutely nothing to improve upon the returns of the single systems.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall,
a loss of 106pts from 471 bets. The second worst month system 21 and system 22
have ever had. The worst month system 6-21 has ever had by a long way though
(around 12pts worse!) and the second worst month system 6-22 has had. Records
falling all over the place but for the wrong reasons! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">New Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-FGvyhj2LjLA/Voz5-V9Ak0I/AAAAAAAAEY4/_i2-ocNcXko/s1600/Pic%2B4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="76" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-FGvyhj2LjLA/Voz5-V9Ak0I/AAAAAAAAEY4/_i2-ocNcXko/s640/Pic%2B4.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A
very similar story to the first two algorithms. A nightmare month and both
system 31 and system 41 have had an amazingly bad month. System 31-41 did
nothing to help and basically, nothing is working like it is supposed to work
and being honest, it has been this way for a while now!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall,
a loss of 86pts from 327 bets. The second worst month system 31 has ever had,
the second worst month system 41 has ever had and surprisingly, the worst month
system 31-41 has ever had. Terrible results.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Misc Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-mTy8-w8QpWk/Voz6CtDBPgI/AAAAAAAAEZA/u6amla2dQvk/s1600/Pic%2B5.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="90" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-mTy8-w8QpWk/Voz6CtDBPgI/AAAAAAAAEZA/u6amla2dQvk/s640/Pic%2B5.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Hard
to know where to start here with these results! Before this season, system
6-21-31 had never come close to losing over a season. Now it’s lost about 2/3
of its full betting bank this season and these systems have wiped out a massive
chunk of historical profits this season already. Hard to believe how bad they
have been!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">All
5 systems here lost with a combined loss of 143.6pts from 384 bets. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Draw Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-LwkPa1zYy1w/Voz6Hjx20mI/AAAAAAAAEZI/FhamFhvqFOI/s1600/Pic%2B6.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="216" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-LwkPa1zYy1w/Voz6Hjx20mI/AAAAAAAAEZI/FhamFhvqFOI/s640/Pic%2B6.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Another
poor month for these systems. The month started very well and half way through
the month when I updated the results, the systems had an overall ROI of 10% so
far this season but 2 weeks later, they are basically break-even for the
season. An amazing drawdown in a very short period of time which sort of sums
up the last couple of weeks of the year for the systems.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall,
a loss of 23.8pts from 214 bets. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Euro Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-fe5iLMNK7tQ/Voz6MdWM7VI/AAAAAAAAEZQ/75Cv3ue_MFE/s1600/Pic%2B7.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="154" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-fe5iLMNK7tQ/Voz6MdWM7VI/AAAAAAAAEZQ/75Cv3ue_MFE/s640/Pic%2B7.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A
small loss this month for these systems. The systems haven’t got off the
starting line so far this season and unless we see a change in fortune in the
second half of the season, it looks like a losing season is on the cards.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A
loss of 5.4pts from 185 bets.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Euro Draw Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7HwMTi78DQQ/Voz6Q-s0CaI/AAAAAAAAEZU/mP7uZKkk-X0/s1600/Pic%2B8.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7HwMTi78DQQ/Voz6Q-s0CaI/AAAAAAAAEZU/mP7uZKkk-X0/s640/Pic%2B8.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A
bit of irony here that the worst systems I have are the only systems to have
made a profit this month. A profit of 11.4pts from 100 bets.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall
then, a small loss (just kidding!) of 353pts from 1,681 bets. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">If
anyone has any doubts whether or not the edge is now gone on simply following
my ratings and systems, then this graph tells the story I think. Here’s a graph
of the full P&L for all TFA systems proofed since inception of the service:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-l06mTjorelE/Voz6WFpZO6I/AAAAAAAAEZg/FQqVVG2Svo4/s1600/Pic%2B9.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="384" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-l06mTjorelE/Voz6WFpZO6I/AAAAAAAAEZg/FQqVVG2Svo4/s640/Pic%2B9.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">As
you can see, since the last peak (Jan-15), the systems have now lost 50% of all
the profits they had previously achieved. This doesn’t happen to systems which
still have a significant edge!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Let’s
see what 2016 holds……</span>Graeme Dandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-38348817643342212942015-12-09T10:38:00.001+00:002015-12-09T10:38:37.298+00:00Monthly Review for November 2015<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Another month, another loss for the systems.
Becoming quite boring now. I could just about handle the fact the UK systems
are rubbish as there are ways around this by missing off multiple system bets
but the profits on the UK Draw systems this season have evaporated after a really poor
month and the Euro system bets just haven’t got started so far this season.
Overall, it’s a complete mess of a season so far and off the back of a horrible
season last season, it’s looking more and more like I’m wasting my time betting
on footie.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I was updating my own betting results last
night to the end of Nov-15 and my last profit peak was 25<sup>th</sup> January
2015. Given the losses since, I had the same level of cumulative profit at
Jan-14 as I have now. If I don’t make a profit in Dec-15, it will be 24 months
since I have moved forward in my P&L. I touched on this when it was nearly
18 months towards the end of last season but there comes a point when if you
can’t move forward, you have to draw a line and stop wasting your time. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I have made no profit over my last 8,000 bets.
If I let that sink in, that’s a helluva lot of work and effort for no return
over the last 2 years. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">As of today, the only UK system (exc Draws)
that is in profit this season is system 31 and even then, it is only just. The
Euro systems are all in a loss making situation and the Euro Draws are loss
making. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Amazingly, I am just better than break-even
this season and I’ve had a nightmare November. Considering the results of all
the systems, I’m grateful that I am break-even for the season! I touched on this last
month but didn’t have the numbers for historical seasons and so didn’t mention
it too much on the blog but the one method which is doing well this season is
Max 4. Regular readers will be aware of this method that was first highlighted
by Tage but if I look at the results this season, they are very good. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The other
system I mentioned over the Summer was using system 41 as a filter as it has
clearly lost the plot and if you were to back all bets that appear on any
system apart from system 41, you would be doing well this season. You can
obviously cross refer both the Max 4 and Not 41 system and it creates a Max 4,
Not 41 system which not surprisingly, also does well this season! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the breakdown of P&L for each of the
3 methods:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-KAEc-JOC2kE/VmgD0gdiyzI/AAAAAAAAEW4/wm2OEINWq7s/s1600/Max%2B4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="446" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-KAEc-JOC2kE/VmgD0gdiyzI/AAAAAAAAEW4/wm2OEINWq7s/s640/Max%2B4.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">As you can see, the results this season for
both methods are very good. Unfortunately, the profits I’ve made on these
methods have been swallowed up completely by losses on other UK systems, Draw
systems and Euro bets but I guess that’s why I follow different systems and
methods!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">In terms of why Max 4 does so well, it’s hard
to explain. Each rating algorithm has the ability to pick up these bets that
are to find and therefore, not every algorithm finds them. Ultimately, it is
these bets that are the jewels in the crown when it comes to TFA but
unfortunately, apart from Max 4 or some method missing off multiple system
bets, it’s not as straightforward as you think to find these bets. The systems
are populated by all these other bets appearing multiple times and therefore,
when you look at the overall results, the losses from the multiple system bets
kill the returns from the other bets which are profitable.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I’m sure there are other ways to identify these
bets (using a similar method to Not 41) but it’s something that probably needs
more time. In addition, I’ve no idea how the TFA Value ratings behave for these
other bets too but I know from looking at the results by Value band that you
can’t simply identify the better bets by using the TFA value ratings. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Anyway, that’s an oversight of the mess of the
systems at the moment. There are still lots of positives to take from my UK
ratings but unfortunately, the positives are being massively outweighed by the
negatives at the moment. Until this changes, the P&L for the systems in
total will look horrible!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">On the plus side, if you ignore the profits
generated from the multiple system bets in the first 3 seasons, then laying
these bets looks the way to go these days. Hence, as well as using system 41 as
a filter for example, you could actually just reverse the bets and generate yourself
another method or system. Being honest, you could do this with lots of the
systems and your only risk is that the systems return to the profitabililtiy
they had 3+ seasons ago. As every day passes, the chances of this decrease I
think! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the monthly results update. Going to
keep comments to a minimum.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Est
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-HTZuLqQlx4k/VmgD5mCrz1I/AAAAAAAAEXA/OrN-ajGaRqw/s1600/Pic%2B1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="110" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-HTZuLqQlx4k/VmgD5mCrz1I/AAAAAAAAEXA/OrN-ajGaRqw/s640/Pic%2B1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-1sqDC948z8o/VmgD8N8x4xI/AAAAAAAAEXI/2c5aL5SIIxw/s1600/Pic%2B2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="98" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-1sqDC948z8o/VmgD8N8x4xI/AAAAAAAAEXI/2c5aL5SIIxw/s640/Pic%2B2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5XBTD_qT3w8/VmgD-tjY2SI/AAAAAAAAEXQ/233Y8BWqu4M/s1600/Pic%2B3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="106" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5XBTD_qT3w8/VmgD-tjY2SI/AAAAAAAAEXQ/233Y8BWqu4M/s640/Pic%2B3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"> A</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> small profit on algorithm 1 and a small loss
on algorithm 2. System 22 had a nightmare (same every month this season!) and
both combined systems lost again. Hard to take too much comfort from these
results, the poor start to the season continues.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">New
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0VSAQZgqBNU/VmgECVvLh0I/AAAAAAAAEXY/ECgHKPndbco/s1600/Pic%2B4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="162" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-0VSAQZgqBNU/VmgECVvLh0I/AAAAAAAAEXY/ECgHKPndbco/s640/Pic%2B4.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xKI1CVKgJaY/VmgEFfcY0VI/AAAAAAAAEXg/PWq9o0S2qfM/s1600/Pic%2B5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="138" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xKI1CVKgJaY/VmgEFfcY0VI/AAAAAAAAEXg/PWq9o0S2qfM/s640/Pic%2B5.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-nEV_6Ht9jNE/VmgEHmSBRdI/AAAAAAAAEXo/KPDQ2jwATNQ/s1600/Pic%2B6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="74" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-nEV_6Ht9jNE/VmgEHmSBRdI/AAAAAAAAEXo/KPDQ2jwATNQ/s640/Pic%2B6.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A small profit across the board is like putting
a plaster on a massive cut that needs stitches…it might stop the bleeding for a
bit but long-term, not sure it matters!
I always laugh when system 41 makes a profit, I sort of hope it loses
now given I’m using it as a filter to find the worst bets! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Misc
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-fOxtcFTO-_Y/VmgEK6fvFII/AAAAAAAAEXw/4WtEikuXu38/s1600/Pic%2B7.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="162" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-fOxtcFTO-_Y/VmgEK6fvFII/AAAAAAAAEXw/4WtEikuXu38/s640/Pic%2B7.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Krha9ySpG4o/VmgENkBi8tI/AAAAAAAAEX4/XlyUWgGZHPI/s1600/Pic%2B8.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="92" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Krha9ySpG4o/VmgENkBi8tI/AAAAAAAAEX4/XlyUWgGZHPI/s640/Pic%2B8.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Losses all round here again and another poor
month. System 6-21-31 hasn’t had a losing season yet. It will be doing well to
continue the tradition this season!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Draw
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/--xlg066288A/VmgES9zwb4I/AAAAAAAAEYA/h29ZIkXci2I/s1600/Pic%2B9.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="218" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/--xlg066288A/VmgES9zwb4I/AAAAAAAAEYA/h29ZIkXci2I/s640/Pic%2B9.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">The 2</span><sup style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">nd</sup><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> algorithm was the issue this
month, finding 12 more bets than algorithm one but unfortunately, finding no
more winners! Not a disaster of a month</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Euro
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-YpXngTypECo/VmgEWVyQCFI/AAAAAAAAEYI/xcXIWksCliQ/s1600/Pic%2B10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="144" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-YpXngTypECo/VmgEWVyQCFI/AAAAAAAAEYI/xcXIWksCliQ/s640/Pic%2B10.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A bit of a nothing month for these systems and
they just can’t get any momentum going at all this season. Long way to go but
they need a bumper month sooner, rather than later.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Euro
Draw Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-lCb6RbCMAsM/VmgEZSBoTFI/AAAAAAAAEYQ/vQ0X94R7r9Q/s1600/Pic%2B11.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="194" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-lCb6RbCMAsM/VmgEZSBoTFI/AAAAAAAAEYQ/vQ0X94R7r9Q/s640/Pic%2B11.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">The best lay-the-draw systems on the market
continue to perform in line with last season’s massive loss. These really are a
pile of shi*!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall, a loss of just under 100pts this
month. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I think making money at betting based on
ratings and systems is still possible as long as the past remains a good guide
to the future. The issue I have is 3 years ago, my systems were massively
profitable and these days, they aren’t. However, get to the end of this season
and it will be 3 seasons in a row for some systems where losses have been made.
This is probably a decent trend and therefore, there has to be a way of turning
losing systems into profitable systems by reversing the bets. If my ratings don’t
work, rather than trying to fix them, keep them as they are and find a way to
use systems which are no longer profitable to find ways to make money. Clutching at straws springs to mind! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Anyway, I’ll worry about that at the end of the
season. If I don’t make a profit betting this season, it’s hard to think I’ll
be following any ratings or systems next season, never mind trying to find a
way to use unprofitable bets! </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Graeme Dandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-47611360343710227252015-11-03T13:56:00.001+00:002015-11-03T13:56:46.545+00:00October 2015 Monthly Review<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Going to be one of the shortest reviews of a
month ever on the blog. In short, I can’t really be arsed writing about another
poor month for the systems. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">The same themes have been apparent for a while
now and therefore, I’m not going to keep repeating them over and over again. At
the moment, the only reason I’m still betting on football is the UK Draw
systems look like they have a decent edge and the Max 4 system is doing well. I
also started following a new method earlier this season to small stakes (basically,
ignore every bet that system 41 has and back the rest) and it has been doing
well. The stakes are tiny though and can’t undo the losses on some of the other UK systems I’m following. I really should have gone one step further and basically
backed the opposite of every bet system 41 has but I didn’t want to tempt fate.
So far, if I’d been following this system, it would have been the best system
ever I suspect!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Although I’m no longer proofing the filtered UK
systems (7,8,32,33,42) and the combined systems which these systems are part
of, I still track the results and show the bets in a single tab each week in
the bet sheet. I needed to do this to enable myself and others to continue
following the Max 4 system using the same criteria as previous seasons. I have
pulled together the results of these other systems into a single sheet just for
my own curiosity and will share the results when I share the monthly spreadsheet but as expected, they are shockingly bad. It is even worse
than last season which takes some doing!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">As well as using system 41 as a filter, you can
probably use systems like 7, 8 or 32 as these have been loss making now for a
long time – hence, the reason I stopped proofing these systems this season. I
was thinking about dropping system 41 this season and then I figured it was
actually beneficial to have a system that was probably going to lose money as
it could maybe be used in some way to identify my weaker bets….I just didn’t
expect 75% of my bets to fall into this category!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Anyway, that’s a little moan about how bad the
season has been so far. Keeping my head above water at the moment but it’s
simply papering over the cracks and in reality, any edge I had at this game
has probably evaporated completely now. A few systems and a few methods are
profitable but given how much work goes into finding the other 95% of the bets,
not sure it is economically viable to continue maintaining multiple rating
algorithms which aren’t very good any longer. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Here’s the results for October. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Est
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5ogttPlhXks/Vji7MONTj2I/AAAAAAAAEVc/V-mGnD10qnw/s1600/Pic%2B1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="104" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5ogttPlhXks/Vji7MONTj2I/AAAAAAAAEVc/V-mGnD10qnw/s640/Pic%2B1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vqN9akLszlg/Vji7PQLCyCI/AAAAAAAAEVk/fuxGaUFypPM/s1600/Pic%2B2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="98" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vqN9akLszlg/Vji7PQLCyCI/AAAAAAAAEVk/fuxGaUFypPM/s640/Pic%2B2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6Ig8Y23N8SQ/Vji7TMigZ-I/AAAAAAAAEVs/rGsb0xc2dJ8/s1600/Pic%2B3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="90" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6Ig8Y23N8SQ/Vji7TMigZ-I/AAAAAAAAEVs/rGsb0xc2dJ8/s640/Pic%2B3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Algorithm 2 somehow nearly broke even but the
first algorithm had a nightmare as did the combined systems. Even though
algorithm 2 did well, system 22 took these bets and had an absolute nightmare.
You couldn’t try to do as bad as this system did. Took a 1/3 of the bets and
found a 1/6 of the winners!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Overall, a mess of a month with a loss of
68.6pts.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">New
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bcg9NIlwBnc/Vji7YD-jvyI/AAAAAAAAEV0/RlRd7LXWRjM/s1600/Pic%2B4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="74" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bcg9NIlwBnc/Vji7YD-jvyI/AAAAAAAAEV0/RlRd7LXWRjM/s640/Pic%2B4.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-GrCQW4HZ5h4/Vji7bXZNlOI/AAAAAAAAEV8/zPjH9-n4RwI/s1600/Pic%2B5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="154" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-GrCQW4HZ5h4/Vji7bXZNlOI/AAAAAAAAEV8/zPjH9-n4RwI/s640/Pic%2B5.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-omBEFDzsFp8/Vji7fWhkSGI/AAAAAAAAEWE/Rf7rHl3ae10/s1600/Pic%2B6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="128" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-omBEFDzsFp8/Vji7fWhkSGI/AAAAAAAAEWE/Rf7rHl3ae10/s640/Pic%2B6.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Not the worst month in the world for system 31
but another shocker for system 41 & system 31-41. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Misc
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-o8hnk0MXByw/Vji7jwkhECI/AAAAAAAAEWM/MInkJRRM3o4/s1600/Pic%2B7.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="90" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-o8hnk0MXByw/Vji7jwkhECI/AAAAAAAAEWM/MInkJRRM3o4/s640/Pic%2B7.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Poor month for all 5 systems. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Draw
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Z0pKDu6suoI/Vji7nicY2_I/AAAAAAAAEWU/Y8xPx50p2RA/s1600/Pic%2B8.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="220" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Z0pKDu6suoI/Vji7nicY2_I/AAAAAAAAEWU/Y8xPx50p2RA/s640/Pic%2B8.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">These systems are my only saving grace at the
moment. Let’s hope they can continue bailing me out for the rest of the season!
<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Euro
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-jaQMLh8S4ac/Vji7rUod3eI/AAAAAAAAEWc/brNIHMpTklk/s1600/Pic%2B9.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="150" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-jaQMLh8S4ac/Vji7rUod3eI/AAAAAAAAEWc/brNIHMpTklk/s640/Pic%2B9.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Shocker of a start for these systems this
season. Hopefully they’ll pick up next month.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Euro
Draw Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ywp29MDeV_I/Vji7xMGVHyI/AAAAAAAAEWk/zSkd-cT0NOc/s1600/Pic%2B10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="194" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ywp29MDeV_I/Vji7xMGVHyI/AAAAAAAAEWk/zSkd-cT0NOc/s640/Pic%2B10.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">A solid start for these systems this season.
Not sure it will continue but would just about sums up the month that these
systems managed to make a profit and they are useless!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Overall, a poor month and it’s becoming a
common theme. The good old TFA days from a few seasons back when profits were
made every month is becoming a distant memory…..</span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Let’s see what next month brings.</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Graeme Dandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-72298337632311581692015-10-11T23:17:00.002+01:002015-10-11T23:17:25.599+01:002015/16 Season Results to end of September<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">It feels like it has been a long time since I’ve written
a blog post. My last post was at the start of July, so it has been a 3 month
break for the blog. Being honest, the break wasn’t planned to be quite as long
as this but I’ve been very busy over the Summer (more so than usual) and
therefore, writing blog posts wasn’t too high up my priority list. We’ll at
least get monthly results posts for the next 8 months or so but if time allows,
I’ll try to do other update posts but given my lack of time these days, it’s
probably highly unlikely.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">This post covers the results for the first two months of
the season. In reality, it was one weekend in August and the whole of
September, so it’s hardly two months of results but this post covers all
results up to the end of September for this season.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">One bit of consistent feedback I had over the Summer was
that many subscribers didn’t really enjoy my regular results updates and
comments on Twitter, on the blog or in emails and therefore, I have definitely
cut down my comments on social media about how things are going. I suspect last
season was a painful one for others as well as me and me moaning about it on Twitter
and continually updating on my personal losses probably didn’t help those
following keep their confidence that things would turn around. I suspect if
things were going well, people wouldn’t mind reading about it but for whatever
reason, when things aren’t going well, they don’t want to hear about it! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">It is also for this reason that the blog will be getting
monthly results updates. I have thought this for a while but updating results
frequently actually makes for a bit of a rollercoaster ride and I think looking
at things monthly is often enough. I still try to update the results after
every set of fixtures but I won’t be updating results on the blog any more
frequently than monthly. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">If I look at this season so far, the first two weeks were
amazing and the systems were showing big profits after a bit of a dream start.
Roll on another two weeks and it is pretty much break-even this season and
therefore, we have already had a bit of a rollercoaster so far this season but looking
at the monthly P&L gives a slightly boring picture but it has been anything
but boring this season so far!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Anyway, here’s a quick rundown of the results so far.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Est Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for algorithm 1:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-LS553yR9lYA/VhreRo6BPfI/AAAAAAAAETw/HFJHxcMkPXM/s1600/Pic%2B1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="132" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-LS553yR9lYA/VhreRo6BPfI/AAAAAAAAETw/HFJHxcMkPXM/s640/Pic%2B1.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A profit of 7.7pts from 157 bets but quite quickly, we
can recognise that all the profits have been made in the low value bands which
continues the pattern from last season. All bets with a value % of 10%+ has
made a loss of 13.2pts from 28 bets. However, low value bets with a value of
less than 10% has made a profit of 20.9pts from 129 bets.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for algorithm 2:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-KZXxR2dwY8s/VhrduFD6tdI/AAAAAAAAETo/FUd9Sunl1hI/s1600/Pic%2B2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="110" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-KZXxR2dwY8s/VhrduFD6tdI/AAAAAAAAETo/FUd9Sunl1hI/s640/Pic%2B2.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A loss of 2.7pts from 133 bets. No clear pattern by value
bands aside from the fact that the bets with higher value have again performed
poor so far this season. The sample sizes are very small though.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A bit of a mixed bag with both algorithms and it’s not
easy to see how this would have translated into a profit or loss on the
combined systems. Here’s the results for all systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-s8fYQLmXcB4/VhreWCOzQBI/AAAAAAAAET4/C1mowmLwzI0/s1600/Pic%2B3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="120" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-s8fYQLmXcB4/VhreWCOzQBI/AAAAAAAAET4/C1mowmLwzI0/s640/Pic%2B3.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Overall, a profit of 12.1pts from 485 bets. 4 of the 5
systems have made a profit with only system 21 making a small loss.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I didn’t touch on it above but the issues on both these
algorithms have come from the Home bets so far this season. Here’s the P&L
for the 5 systems combined split by Home/Away bets:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-A_bVf1MwIMc/VhreaEg7rlI/AAAAAAAAEUA/2MgJFdQiFLo/s1600/Pic%2B4.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="110" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-A_bVf1MwIMc/VhreaEg7rlI/AAAAAAAAEUA/2MgJFdQiFLo/s640/Pic%2B4.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">As you can see, Aways have done really well so far this
season and have a profit of 51.2pts at an ROI of 19.2%. Unfortunately, Homes
have really struggled and it’s a loss of 39.1pts at an ROI of -18%.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall, a solid enough start but it’s disappointing that
the Home bets have performed so poorly thus far this season. These tend to be
less volatile than the Away bets even though they are less profitable but it
has been a tough month or so for these bets. Hopefully things improve as the
season progresses.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">New Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for algorithm 3:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6GyV5j-_Zc4/VhrefkJIyYI/AAAAAAAAEUI/Oj2GeAzIGUY/s1600/Pic%2B5.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="186" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6GyV5j-_Zc4/VhrefkJIyYI/AAAAAAAAEUI/Oj2GeAzIGUY/s640/Pic%2B5.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Overall, a profit of 0.7pts from 142 bets. Pretty much a
break-even month. The same issues were apparent here as on the first two algorithms.
All the profits from Away bets were wiped out by losses from Home bets which is
disappointing.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The value bands show most bets have fallen into the lower
value bands and the profits on the Aways were cancelled out by the losses on
the Homes. Hard to draw any conclusions here.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for algorithm 4:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-n-g8ChoeFWE/VhrekyiZNoI/AAAAAAAAEUQ/7vkvwxPDrl8/s1600/Pic%2B6.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="160" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-n-g8ChoeFWE/VhrekyiZNoI/AAAAAAAAEUQ/7vkvwxPDrl8/s640/Pic%2B6.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Not too many surprises here but another loss for
algorithm 4. I would be disappointed if it didn’t make a loss I suspect! A loss
of 6.5pts from 126 bets. I refreshed the underlying systems behind the
algorithm during the Summer but it’s like trying to polish a turd I think. No
matter what I do, I can’t turn this algorithm around into having an edge.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">So, with mixed fortunes on the algorithms, how did system
31-41 do? Here’s the results for the New Systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-1X9sxXiU4rA/VhreqO97I2I/AAAAAAAAEUY/FGxi23oLT8E/s1600/Pic%2B7.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="88" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-1X9sxXiU4rA/VhreqO97I2I/AAAAAAAAEUY/FGxi23oLT8E/s640/Pic%2B7.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A small loss on system 31-41 of 3.2pts from 99 bets. Did
it’s job I guess of filtering out some bets from system 41 although clearly
filtered out the profitable bets from system 31 that didn’t appear on system
41. Ideally, I think you need to try to use system 41 to filter out the worst
bets from system 31 as if system 41 has no edge, you don’t want to be backing
the bets on other systems that system 41 has.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall then, a loss of 8.9pts from 367 bets. Not a great
start but I’ve had worse starts to the season on these systems before!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Misc Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for these systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Wmt4LFj6oRc/VhrevFVd2ZI/AAAAAAAAEUg/J6zF0SnVDxQ/s1600/Pic%2B8.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="110" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Wmt4LFj6oRc/VhrevFVd2ZI/AAAAAAAAEUg/J6zF0SnVDxQ/s640/Pic%2B8.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Overall, a loss of 14.8pts from 380 bets. 3 of the 5
systems made a loss with systems TOX and STOY in particular having poor months.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Again, it’s too early to get too carried away with these
results but I guess seeing STOZ doing better than the other two systems bucks
the trend from last season. Out of these 5 systems, system 6-21-31 is
historically the best system and therefore, I’d expect this to perform the best
out of these systems again this season. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Not the best start for these systems but it’s early days
and plenty of time left this season for these systems to hopefully build some profits.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Draw Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s these results:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-CTpIarMoxDg/VhrezvNqTyI/AAAAAAAAEUo/hE9wpoBJgXY/s1600/Pic%2B9.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="306" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-CTpIarMoxDg/VhrezvNqTyI/AAAAAAAAEUo/hE9wpoBJgXY/s640/Pic%2B9.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Overall, a profit of 17.6pts from 183 bets. An ROI of
9.6%. 5 of the 8 systems made a profit with 3 systems showing a 0.2pts loss. At
first glance, it looks like a very solid start to the season for these systems
but underneath, it has been a rollercoaster month where the profits gained
early on in the month were mostly all given back by the end of the month. Can’t
help but feel it should have been a much better month but hey ho, it’s hard to
moan too much when a profit is made.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">It has been a pretty uneventful start to the season with
a profit of 6pts from 1,415 bets. Hardly a great start to the season but then
again, given some of the monthly losses last season, I can’t moan too much
about making a profit in a month! The Euro bets start from October and it will
be interesting to see how these bets do this season. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results in the usual format showing the
results so far this season and the overall results for all systems since
inception:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0YyXzqutIV4/Vhre4up0idI/AAAAAAAAEUw/idyCyH1XY18/s1600/Pic%2B10.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0YyXzqutIV4/Vhre4up0idI/AAAAAAAAEUw/idyCyH1XY18/s1600/Pic%2B10.jpg" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-o6yfakjsg1s/Vhre9wxSZ-I/AAAAAAAAEU8/bYXldqWMxxs/s1600/Pic%2B11.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-o6yfakjsg1s/Vhre9wxSZ-I/AAAAAAAAEU8/bYXldqWMxxs/s1600/Pic%2B11.jpg" /></a></span></div>
Graeme Dandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-46997715535719332622015-07-03T16:38:00.000+01:002015-07-03T16:38:00.279+01:00Plans for 2015/16 Season<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">This is going to be the final post before I
send out the renewals for next season and before I contact anyone currently on
the waiting list to join the service. Given the overall results last season and
the general feeling towards last season (it wasn’t very nice), I expect the
subscription base to shrink massively for next season. Given the results for
the other ratings services last season and the competition generally, I expect
the number of football bettors subscribing to services next season will
undoubtedly reduce and therefore, I think the number subscribing to TFA may be
at an all-time low. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">On the plus side, those on the waiting list
(yes, hard to believe you had to queue to join the service!) will be offered a
place and hopefully this churn of the subscription base is no bad thing. It’s
always interesting getting new subscribers and they don’t have the scars that
many of us currently have after last season!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">In terms of the service for next season, there
is obviously going to be less attention on the UK systems which have been the main
systems until now and a lot more attention on the Euro systems and the UK Draw
systems. If you look at the last two seasons in isolation, we have the
following results for each set of systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-TJyspR0sWgQ/VZar2DRm-TI/AAAAAAAAES8/_AZyBIYIbl4/s1600/Pic%2B1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="212" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-TJyspR0sWgQ/VZar2DRm-TI/AAAAAAAAES8/_AZyBIYIbl4/s640/Pic%2B1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">As you can see, based on this table, the 3 UK
sets of systems have made losses for the Est & New systems and the Misc
systems have basically broken even. If we compare this to the Euro and UK Draw
systems, we can see that there have been big profits and therefore, going into
next season, you have to say that I have more confidence in these systems than
the UK systems.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Of course, we can’t just ignore the fact that
for the first 3 seasons of the service, the UK systems had a significant edge
and therefore, you can’t write the UK systems off completely and my hope would
be that they can bounce back after last season but with no profits for two
seasons, I think you have to have your doubts. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">One criticism that the service has had for a
few seasons now is that there are too many systems. The survey results
indicated this too and therefore, based on the system reviews I’ve carried out,
I will be retiring a number of systems. Importantly, I’m not wiping these
results from history and most systems have been profitable since inception but
I feel going forward, I need to trim down the number of systems. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Rather than discuss each set of systems, below
is a table which shows all the systems that will be alive for the 2015/16
season:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-JBlMf_o4Ok0/VZar80lO2rI/AAAAAAAAETE/n4ye66Sd9Cs/s1600/Pic%2B2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="504" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-JBlMf_o4Ok0/VZar80lO2rI/AAAAAAAAETE/n4ye66Sd9Cs/s640/Pic%2B2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">In summary, there will now only be 31 live
systems. It is most of the lower turnover systems that have been retired as
quite simply, although they may have had decent ROIs, the turnover was too low
every season and I want to try to reduce the volatility in the results by
removing these systems which are basically filtered systems on the other systems.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I have been particularly harsh on the Est
Systems and New Systems but they have been around for either 3,4 or 5 seasons
now and I think it’s a good time to draw a line under some of these systems. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I have decided to continue with algorithm 4
again next season even though there appears to be no edge there. I will
obviously try to revive the system over the Summer but I would have my doubts
about this system going forward.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The Draw system D3 appeared to be the issue on
the UK Draw systems, so I have removed this with the corresponding combined
systems D3-D6 and D3-D7. Same story with the Euro bets where I have removed E3,
E3-E6 and E3-E7. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">As the table shows, I will have another go at
Euro Draws next season but just have two algorithms and no filtered systems.
Until I get a set of ratings to work, there is no point trying to filter the
bets. At the very least, I need the ratings to be break-even in order to even
think about filtering the bets. I’ll build these systems over the Summer.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Importantly, I know a number of people use the
UK systems in order to create methods for themselves such as Max 4, Max 3, Max
2, Min 5 etc. To satisfy these people, although the systems are not being
proofed results wise, I will have a table in the weekly bet sheet which looks
like the below:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Yo193OpzNAg/VZasCkezBYI/AAAAAAAAETM/2ut-HGH-ghY/s1600/Pic%2B3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="138" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Yo193OpzNAg/VZasCkezBYI/AAAAAAAAETM/2ut-HGH-ghY/s640/Pic%2B3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">People can even create their own systems like
system 6-21-41 by putting simple formulae in this sheet, so there are endless
systems people can play about with. I will obviously keep the same systems
there as I know a lot of people used these 22 systems over the first few
seasons but people can do what they want with this knowledge. Based on the last
two seasons, filtering out the bets that appear on too many systems might not
be such a bad idea!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I have decided to keep the email to a Thursday
evening although as always, this can move around based on work commitments. The
time will be as soon as I can get the bets out but with my daughter being at
nursery and having her in the car on the way home, I’m not going to be speeding
to make 6pm deadlines every week. As last season showed, following the bets
straight after other tipsters is the lowest prices anyway and therefore,
Thursday is not an optimal time to be releasing bets. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">In terms of the bookmakers used, based on the feedback
in the survey, I’ll continue to use Pinnacle but with more UK bookmakers used
when the Pinnacle prices are artificially too low. Based on the survey feedback,
the vast majority of members get the prices no problem and although I don’t
want this to change necessarily, it does open the door to more flexibility. In my
opinion, if most subscribers are achieving or beating the quoted odds for a
service like TFA, I either don’t have enough members or I’m too generous with
the odds quoiting! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I don’t foresee too many other changes to the
service. I’m always happy to discuss any changes with anyone who subscribers
and I’ll always listen to constructive feedback either via emails, on the blog
or even Twitter although as I’ve learnt over the years, I’ll never please
everyone at this game.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">In terms of expectations for next season, I
think first and foremost, I need all the proofed systems to return an overall
profit. Last season was the first season this hasn’t happened and therefore,
this is what I need to correct. If all the systems can create a profit (no
matter how small), it’s a great base to work from and I want to get back to the
first few seasons where no matter what anyone did with TFA, they made a profit.
This has to be the aim. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I think with the bets spread across so many
sets of systems these days, it’s probably asking a lot for every set of systems
to make a profit but even if one set of systems has a poor system, the hope
would be the other systems could cover it. My issue last season was all 3 UK
sets of systems made losses which combined with the Euro Draw losses meant that
the service had no chance of achieving a profit overall. The performance of the
Euro systems were effectively overlooked completely and yet, they had an
amazing season I think. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">I think this covers off the key points I want
to discuss with regards to next season. Details on prices etc. will be
available on the website and in the renewal email in due course. I hope to have
this all done over the weekend.</span></div>
Graeme Dandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-28183795972329320542015-06-29T16:15:00.000+01:002015-06-29T16:15:05.305+01:00Euro Draw Systems Season Review 2014/15<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">If I was most looking forward to reviewing the
Euro systems on the last post, it’s safe to say reviewing the Euro Draw systems
is the thing I’m least looking forward to this Summer. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">If I wind the clock back 12 months, I had just
had a pretty decent first season with UK Draws and therefore, it seemed a
natural progression to take a look at Euro Draws in the Euro leagues. I had
plenty of reservations though and given my first set of Euro systems flopped in
their first season, I think I had my doubts whether or not the same could
happen here. My other issue is well documented but basically, backing Draws in
the Euro leagues isn’t exactly an easy place to make money. Historically, the underlying
losses for backing Draws was on average of 7.5% going back to 2006/07 season
and therefore, I had my doubts about finding an edge. I think the combination
of both the doubt about the Euro leagues and the doubt about Draws in the Euro
leagues should hopefully have helped people didn’t get carried away with these
systems last season. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">It is somewhat ironic that based on the
underlying results, season 2014/15 was the second easiest season for Draws in
the Euro leagues in the last 9 seasons! There was an overall loss of 2.7% and a
strike rate of 25.8% over the season and therefore, it wasn’t impossible to
make a profit last season if you had an edge in these leagues. Clearly, as
we’ll see, I had no edge and wasn’t even close to finding an edge.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I better just get on with sharing the results
for last season:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-w2MGpWZ-9Ao/VZFgn5Am7PI/AAAAAAAAESk/GI5hitQwZN0/s1600/Pic%2B1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="346" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-w2MGpWZ-9Ao/VZFgn5Am7PI/AAAAAAAAESk/GI5hitQwZN0/s640/Pic%2B1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Considering the Euro systems a few years ago
had a nightmare season and lost 127pts, this takes losing to a complete new
level. A loss of 297.8pts at an ROI of -11.9%. All 11 systems made a loss and
the average loss was 27.1pts on each system.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">It’s hard to know where to start here.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The ratings themselves were very poor, with
both rating algorithms losing 9.8% and 13.6% respectively. This accounts for a
loss of 41pts and 61pts loss on each algorithm. If your base is this bad, it’s
impossible to imagine any system could make a profit and even cross referring
systems isn’t going to help too much as the losses are so extreme.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The filtering between DE1 to DE2 to DE3 didn’t
work at all and as you reduced the bet number, the ROI simple deteriorated
which is the opposite of what is supposed to happen! The filtering from DE6 to
DE7 did work better though and a loss of 13.6% on DE6 was reduced to a loss of
2.7% on DE7. There were 230 bets that appeared on DE6 but not DE7. These 230
bets lost a total of 55.2pts which is an ROI of -24%. Considering the
underlying loss was only 2.7%, this is an unbelievably bad result. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Looking at the combined systems, I’m not sure
the picture improves. If anything, it’s just as bad, if not worse. DE1-DE6 lost
12.8% which was closer to the losses on DE6 than DE1 unfortunately.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">DE1-DE7 did OK as DE7 did OK but again, there
was no real improvement from cross referring the systems. DE2-DE6 did worse
than DE2 or DE6 and the same is true for DE2-DE7 when compared to the single
systems.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">DE3-DE6 and DE3-DE7 both had nightmares and
lost over 20% each which takes some going over a season backing draws!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall, a total and utter disaster and based
on these results, all you can say is that you’d need to rip up the systems and
ratings and start again if you wanted another attempt at doing something with
Draws in these leagues. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">To try to give a little insight into the issues
these ratings and systems faced, here’s the breakdown by league for last
season:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wJQ975PgiIA/VZFgrPpPkbI/AAAAAAAAESs/107BscDeHG4/s1600/Pic%2B2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="160" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-wJQ975PgiIA/VZFgrPpPkbI/AAAAAAAAESs/107BscDeHG4/s640/Pic%2B2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">As you can see, France was a major issue. My
ratings obviously favoured this league for Draws due to the low goal expectancy
historically but last season, the strike rate dipped massively in this league.
The underlying ROI for backing draws in France was -18.4% which meant you were
always going to take a bath backing draws in this league.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">If you simply ignore the French league (I know
you can’t do this but just pretend!), then the overall results were not
anywhere near as bad and although it would have still been an 83pt loss,
nothing like the 297.8pts loss the systems suffered.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I’m sure if I drilled into the results deeper,
I can find lots of examples of last season’s results being nothing like the
historical results for subsets of bets but this is the same in every league.
It’s how your ratings cope with this that determines their profitability
long-term I think and last season, my Euro Draw ratings couldn’t cope at all.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<b style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Summer
Action – </b><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">I need to decide whether or not I want to
continue with looking for an edge at Euro Draws next season. At the moment, I
would say it’s probably the end for these systems but I’ll spend some time this
Summer seeing if I can develop another set of ratings quickly. I’m not
investing too much time though! Even if I do have Euro Draw systems next
season, they would be trial systems at best and I wouldn’t touch them with a
bargepole after this season! </span>Graeme Dandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-69043033867602040512015-06-29T09:08:00.001+01:002015-06-29T09:08:39.531+01:00Euro Systems Season Review 2014/15<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I think the only systems I’ve been looking
forward to reviewing this Summer have been the Euro systems. Before we get onto
last season’s results, it’s worth recalling the history of these systems over
the 3 seasons so far.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The first season was season 2012/13 for the
Euro systems. I decided I wanted to branch out into the European leagues for a
couple of reasons. The obvious reason is for additional diversification and I
didn’t want to put all my eggs into one basket when it came to the UK leagues.
I was also acutely aware a few years ago that my edge would be eroded as I
started to lose bookmaker accounts and therefore, with liquidity becoming a
little bit of an issue, branching out into European leagues seemed like a good
move. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">When the systems went live though, it was clear
there wasn’t much of an edge. Although the results were not a disaster, given
the Home bias that was apparent in the Euro leagues, launching systems with
70%+ of bets being Away bets was never going to work I think. Here’s the
results for season 1:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-vGBHL-_KuCM/VZD8nQBvD6I/AAAAAAAAER0/9wUvY6FU3sA/s1600/Pic%2B1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="354" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-vGBHL-_KuCM/VZD8nQBvD6I/AAAAAAAAER0/9wUvY6FU3sA/s640/Pic%2B1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Although not a disaster of a season, a 4.4%
loss across all systems and the fact that both rating algorithms lost 4.5% and
9.3% respectively meant that I made the decision that I needed to start again
and basically scrap these ratings completely. My main concern was the Away bias
within the systems and when I built the systems, the intention was to match the
UK methodology which obviously has an Away bias within the ratings. Considering
the Home bias in the Euro leagues, I was basically fighting against the
underlying results and therefore, I realised I had no edge with these ratings.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I spent the Summer of 2013 building a brand new
set of rating algorithms for the Euro leagues and corrected the Home and Away
bias. Here’s the results for the first season of these new ratings:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-X2saUUkIM0o/VZD8qZkZAEI/AAAAAAAAER8/6fEs2_Sy--I/s1600/Pic%2B2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="352" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-X2saUUkIM0o/VZD8qZkZAEI/AAAAAAAAER8/6fEs2_Sy--I/s640/Pic%2B2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">All 11 systems were profitable, both rating
algorithms were profitable and the combined systems did pretty well overall. Of
course, it would take more than one good season to wipe out the losses and
memories of the first season but overall, it was a step in the right direction
at least.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">So, that brings us onto last season’s results.
Going into the season, I think many (including myself) still had reservations
about these systems and even though I appreciated the ease of which I can place
the bets and achieve better than the advised prices, I didn’t go overboard with
my stakes on these bets last season. Hindsight is a wonderful thing and I
really wish I’d gone to town on these systems now, especially given the UK
results! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for last season:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SaLVgX8olmQ/VZD8t6jkZuI/AAAAAAAAESE/o-QOgQXbadE/s1600/Pic%2B3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="412" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SaLVgX8olmQ/VZD8t6jkZuI/AAAAAAAAESE/o-QOgQXbadE/s640/Pic%2B3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">10 of the 11 systems were profitable, the
overall results of all systems was very good but more importantly, both
algorithms did very well. 6.8% and 8.2% respectively for profits of the
algorithms is very good and therefore, it’s hard to not be impressed by these
results.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The filtering between system E2 and E3 was
rubbish and this impacted E3-E6 and E3-E7 but overall, it is hard to be too
critical. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">E1-E6 and E1-E7 had exceptional years and
really managed to build on the profits from the first year these ratings were
live (second season of Euro bets). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">If we look at the last two seasons when these
rating algorithms were live, here’s the combined results:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8f2PsUlfPwo/VZD8xCWIJJI/AAAAAAAAESM/3-0QY3sm1K4/s1600/Pic%2B4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="392" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8f2PsUlfPwo/VZD8xCWIJJI/AAAAAAAAESM/3-0QY3sm1K4/s640/Pic%2B4.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Although it’s still early days and my comments
are similar to the UK Draw systems, these results are pretty good. Both
algorithms look solid, the combined systems look solid, especially E1-E6 and
E1-E7 and I think as we go into the 3</span><sup style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">rd</sup><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> season with these
algorithms, there is going to be an element of expectation now.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I think having written the UK Draws and Euro
systems reviews now, it’s safe to say that as TFA goes into its 6<sup>th</sup>
live service, it is no longer predominantly a service specialising in the UK
leagues for outright bets. It has systems with great potential for UK Draws and
we have the Euro bets with a couple of seasons of proven results behind them.
This isn’t a bad place to be in.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">For the record, here’s the results for the
first 3 seasons which are not really meaningful when looking forward but of
course, this is the proofed results for these Euro systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-X2_VWNWI2P8/VZD80rsqAjI/AAAAAAAAESU/IqeaNjJEXFo/s1600/Pic%2B5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="394" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-X2_VWNWI2P8/VZD80rsqAjI/AAAAAAAAESU/IqeaNjJEXFo/s640/Pic%2B5.png" width="640" /></a></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Even with the very poor first season included,
these Euro system returns are starting to stack up I think. Roll on next
season! </span></div>
Graeme Dandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-57936515921513528942015-06-26T11:30:00.001+01:002015-06-26T11:30:46.274+01:00UK Draws Season Review 2014/15<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I think the most difficult systems to review
this Summer are the UK Draw systems. This was their 2<sup>nd</sup> live season
and the results in the first season were very impressive on most of the
systems. As I alluded to last Summer, the results were even better when
compared to the underlying draw strike rates in the UK leagues and the 2013/14 season
was the lowest strike rate for draws since the 2007/8 season. Therefore, to
produce these results below in the first season of live results was impressive
to say the least:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-d5jiaFL7wnY/VY0ovyvkmiI/AAAAAAAAERU/Qwe7UFcVwL4/s1600/Pic%2B1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="372" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-d5jiaFL7wnY/VY0ovyvkmiI/AAAAAAAAERU/Qwe7UFcVwL4/s640/Pic%2B1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">I think coming into last season, I probably had
in the back of my mind that the UK draw systems were possibly my best systems.
Yes, they didn’t have anywhere near the profits or number of bets as my other
UK systems but given they had only been live for 1 season, you had to look
beyond this. My assumption was that the 2014/15 season couldn’t be any tougher
than the 2013/14 season and therefore, if the underlying results were a little
easier, the profits should improve and we would have a serious set of systems on
our hands after 2 seasons.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Unfortunately, the strike rate was draws in the
season past was the lower than it was in 2007/8! A strike rate of only 25.3%
last season makes it the toughest season for draws since 2006/7 and one of the
toughest seasons for draws you could ever expect I think. Therefore, any plans
of the UK Draws having a great season last season went out of the window quite
early on as they got themselves into a bit of a hole and at one stage,
break-even looked a helluva long way away from being achieved. However, the
systems ended the season well as the strike rate picked up a little in April
and the results for the season were:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-v-zkatzk-Fo/VY0ozgteTNI/AAAAAAAAERc/vanRdAvjY-k/s1600/Pic%2B2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="372" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-v-zkatzk-Fo/VY0ozgteTNI/AAAAAAAAERc/vanRdAvjY-k/s640/Pic%2B2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Overall, these results are disappointing and
seeing 5 of the 11 systems making a loss over the season means it can never be
a good season for the systems. However, when you consider the underlying
results produced a strike rate of 25.3% for draws, then it is a positive that
every system managed to beat this strike rate and although they couldn’t turn
it into a profit on every system, having 5 systems in profit is not easy when
the results are so tough.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I think the most pleasing aspect of these
results is the fact that both algorithms made a profit independently. System D6
made an ROI of 5.8% over the season to Pinnacle prices when the P&L to best
draw prices was a loss a loss of over 6%. In my opinion, this is probably the
best result of any system I’ve ever had over a season. It was very tough to
break-even over the season but to make a profit of this magnitude is an amazing
performance. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Although system D1 wasn’t anywhere near as impressive,
to make a profit of 1.7% is acceptable in a season like this and I think both
UK Draw algorithms outperformed the other UK algorithms by a long, long way.
The only thing that stops these algorithms being hailed as the best last season
will be the performance of the Euro algorithms as we’ll see when I review these
systems.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The filtering on systems D2 & D3 and D7
didn’t really work well last season but being honest, it’s hard to be too
critical given the underlying results.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The combined systems were nowhere near as
impressive as the first season although I think seeing D1-D6 hit a 4.6% ROI in
a season as tough as this, combined with the results in the first season means
this system is potentially very, very good. I look forward to seeing what this
system can do when the underlying draw strike rate increases by a 2%-3% like
previous seasons. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">If we look at the results of both seasons
combined, here they are:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HzWh9uQpT70/VY0o264l29I/AAAAAAAAERk/S4TGTY5fu-I/s1600/Pic%2B3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="344" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-HzWh9uQpT70/VY0o264l29I/AAAAAAAAERk/S4TGTY5fu-I/s640/Pic%2B3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">I’ll start with the positives first. After 2
very tough seasons for draw bettors, these results are pretty good I think. Yes,
none of the systems are statistically significant and it’s too early to be
putting all our eggs in one basket with these systems but given the underlying results
so far, I think these results are exceptional.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Both algorithms are doing as they are intended
to do and are making a small profit over a large number of bets. A 2.7% and 3%
ROI respectively won’t make you rich but if you can turn 5%-6% losses for
underlying results into a couple of % points profits to Pinny prices only, you
have a great base to work from. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The filtering from system D1 to D2 works exceptionally
well at the moment. The filtering from system D2 to D3 is about as bad as you
could do! To turn a 12.9% profit on D2 into a -5.6% loss on D3 takes some
going! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The filtering from system D6 to D7 is pretty
good although not as good as moving from D1 to D2.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The real power of these systems appears to be
in the combined systems though. Systems D1-D6 to D2-D7 have now built up very
good results over 2 seasons and if the underlying results can just get a little
bit easier over the next few years, the results for these systems could be even
better I suspect.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Systems D3-D6 and D3-D7 obviously suffer badly
from the results with system D3 and therefore, I don’t think these systems add
anything to the other systems.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall then, still early days for these UK
Draw systems but two seasons in, I’m really pleased with these results. Yes, I
would have hoped for a better season last season but given the underlying
results, we’ll accept these results and move onto next season with a fair
degree of confidence.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<b><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Summer
Actions</span></b><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"> – System D3 and Systems D3-D6 and D3-D7 will
be retired. I don’t see the need for these systems going forward. Not sure they
add anything to my proofed results and the turnover on the systems is far too
low anyway. I don’t plan on touching these systems too much over the Summer. I’ll
take a look at them and see if any tweaks could be applied but I’m never a fan
of touching something that isn’t broken or even appears to be on the decline. I’m
not sure we’ve seen the best of these systems yet. </span>Graeme Dandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-45930702493532866342015-06-23T13:32:00.002+01:002015-06-23T13:32:48.956+01:00Misc Systems Season Review 2014/15<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The 3<sup>rd</sup> set of systems to review
this Summer is the Misc Systems. As the name suggests, these systems are a
bunch of misfits and were cobbled together at the start of the second season of
the service to see if I could improve up on the returns on the other systems at
the time, the Est Systems and the 3 New Systems (31-33). To recap, the systems
are made up of:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">6-32 – any bet that appears on system 6 and 32<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">21-31 – any bet that appears on system 21 and
31<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">6-21-31 – any bet that appears on system 6,21
and 31<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The rationale for the 3 systems above was quite
simple. It was another method to try to filter the bets on the higher turnover
systems. Ideally, we would reduce the turnover, increase the ROI and we would
have another system that could be followed.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The final 3 systems were a little bit
different. These systems were based on a method known as a ‘Similar Game
Method’ and simply involved building rules looking for particular types of
bets. For example, backing the teams in 21<sup>st</sup>-24<sup>th</sup> place
in League One every season when they play away from home is a profitable
strategy. There are a whole host of rules I have built which are based on
historical results which are profitable. When the bets were thrown up using
these rules, the bets were then cross referred with either system 21, system
6-21 or system 31 and this created 3 new systems.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">TOX – SGM bets which appeared on system 21<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">STOY – SGM bets which appeared on system 6-21<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">STOZ – SGM bets which appeared on system 31<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">If anyone looks closely, there will be the odd
bet that appears on TOX for example that isn’t on system 21. It will be a bet
where system 21 had it as value but the bet was dropped due to an odds
restriction. Hence, it isn’t on 21 but is on TOX.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Again, the purpose of these 3 systems was to
provide another slightly different method to cross refer the bets but of
course, the correlation to systems 21,6-21 and 31 was basically 100%. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Over the first 3 seasons these 6 Misc systems
were live, the results were:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-OKYi2rg6Mas/VYlRlqahvvI/AAAAAAAAEQs/Fkt1ZYZHmpk/s1600/Pic%2B1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="212" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-OKYi2rg6Mas/VYlRlqahvvI/AAAAAAAAEQs/Fkt1ZYZHmpk/s640/Pic%2B1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">As you can see above, 5 of the 6 Misc systems
were actually very profitable over the first 3 seasons and although the results
weren’t as impressive as some of my other systems, they were still very good. I
took some additional comfort from the methods used to create these systems and
for example, for one of the SGM systems to lose, they needed the underlying
rules to lose as well as the system it was cross referred with losing. Hence,
it sort of felt like these systems were a little protected from a downturn,
more so than some other systems. Likewise, for systems 21-31 or 6-21-31 to lose
badly, it needed two or three algorithms to perform badly. Given I had never
had a losing algorithm over a season, surely I couldn’t hit 2 or 3 algorithms
losing at once?</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">It’s always nice setting the scene, showing the
thought that went into things and then boom, a season like last season comes
along and the results for the 6 systems were:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Eqdaakholno/VYlRvFPanJI/AAAAAAAAEQ8/els7URZ5PSA/s1600/Pic%2B2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="218" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Eqdaakholno/VYlRvFPanJI/AAAAAAAAEQ8/els7URZ5PSA/s640/Pic%2B2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">I’ll start with the positives first. Systems
21-31 and 6-21-31 didn’t have a losing season even though systems 21 and 31 had
a nightmare season. This shows the strength of cross referring systems and
although these systems didn’t perform as well as the individual systems did
during the good seasons, during a downturn, the cross referral of the systems
has helped reduce losses. Therefore, the rationale for cross referring the
systems was correct and therefore, in a season of few positives, anyone
following these 2 systems did OK.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Ignoring that positive (says it all that just
better than break-even over a season for a system in a positive!), we have the
performance of the other 4 systems. I’ll deal with system 6-32 first.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A loss of 12.4pts isn’t a disaster but being
honest, the system wasn’t doing that great coming into the season. Over 4
seasons now, the system has generated a profit of 8.3pts at an ROI of 0.9%.
That’s nothing and put it down as one of the worst performing systems since
inception of the service. This service will now be retired and we won’t see
6-32 in future. It isn’t any better than system 6 or system 32, so no point
having it!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Right, the 3 SGM systems.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I’ll start with STOY. A loss of 13.3pts at an
ROI of -3.7%. A poor season but given the previous results, it isn’t a
disaster. The overall returns for the 4 seasons now stand at 68.4pts at an ROI
of 5.6%. Hence, the system lost about 16% of the profits it had made previously
which although disappointing, isn’t a disaster.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Unfortunately, the other two systems were a
complete and utter disaster. TOX lost 28.7pts at an ROI of -7.2% and STOZ lost
41.8pts at an ROI of -7.9%. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">TOX is cross referred with system 21 and we
know system 21 lost 1.5% last season, so the SGM system rules made things much
worse. The same is true for STOZ as we know that system 31 lost 2.6% and
therefore, the SGM rules have had a nightmare.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I don’t have time at this moment in time to run
through all the rules and check the individual P&Ls but I think it’s
probably not too surprising. We already know last season wasn’t like the
previous 4 seasons in terms of the results for my ratings and given my ratings
are based on historical results, it all points to last season’s results being a
little bit different from previous seasons. Of course, one issue with using a
SGM approach is that if something changes and the historical results aren’t an
indicator of future results, then an SGM approach will really suffer. Probably
more so than my ratings as my ratings are much smarter than just applying basic
rules based on historical trends and results. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Being honest, I had never really thought about
this until I spent time looking at the SGM results but in a way, I quite like
the fact these systems have bombed massively last season now. Yes, it’s cost me
a small fortune (I followed STOY) but it sort of helps me understand why my
ratings struggled so badly last season. It’s impossible for me to exactly
pinpoint where it went wrong last season (we know it wasn’t the underlying
results as the number of Aways/Wins/Draws was in tolerance) but clearly, something
happened last season that hasn’t happened previously. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I guess the question for all of us and what we
want to know is will next season follow last season and we’ll lose again or
will it revert back to the long-term trend? <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I’m not really ripping into the systems here as
although they created massive losses and performed miserably, I sort of
understand why. Systems and ratings are only as good as the data they are based
on and if something material changes in the data, the systems and ratings will
fall into a hole. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I will obviously rebuild the SGM rules which
will hopefully help the performance of these systems in future but I now have
my own reservations with these systems now. If we can’t be confident that the
past will help predict the future, then the first systems that will fail are
the SGM systems I suspect. After last season, I would be worried about
following these systems blindly in future although if we see last season as a
blip, then there are no worries.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">This review is fairly short but anyone who
wants to play around with the performance by league etc. can do so in the
spreadsheet I provided. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the updated results for all 6 systems
after 4 live seasons of results:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-P-MMNDjo3EM/VYlRzaGw6qI/AAAAAAAAERE/16AwCnP6Z28/s1600/Pic%2B3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="216" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-P-MMNDjo3EM/VYlRzaGw6qI/AAAAAAAAERE/16AwCnP6Z28/s640/Pic%2B3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Summer
actions – </b><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">System 6-32 is now retired. I will rebuild the
SGM rules for the 3 SGM systems but apart from this, I think it’s a case of
waiting to see what happens next season. I wouldn’t touch 21-31 or 6-21-31. I
think both these systems are now two of the strongest systems I have as they
have never had a losing season even though last season was a disaster! If they
can get through last season without a loss, I suspect they can get through any
season without a loss! </span></div>
Graeme Dandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-13223389712003923102015-06-19T15:55:00.002+01:002015-06-19T15:56:10.609+01:00New Systems Season Review 2014/15<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">If we thought it was a poor season for the
Established Systems, this review is going to make even worse reading. Going
into the season, I would say this set of systems probably carried more weight
than any other set of systems in subscriber’s portfolios and betting strategies
but these systems crashed and burned badly this season. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">These systems have always been a little bit of
boom and bust since their inception and this was the 3<sup>rd</sup> season that
all systems had been live. Systems 31-33 have been live for 4 seasons. The
first season all systems were live wasn’t great, the second season was amazing
and the 3<sup>rd</sup> season has been poor. Overall, the results don’t look
too bad although they now lag a little behind the Established Systems.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Going into this season, system 31 looked like
the best system I had and probably one of the best systems I’d ever seen with 3
season’s of live results behind it. Roll on another season and the results don’t
look anywhere near as impressive after a very poor season. Half way through the
season, System 31 hit the magic <1% P-Value and I thought, finally, a system
that is statistically significant. It barely hit a winner after this! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for the 3<sup>rd</sup>
algorithm (system 31):<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-1eW6lZFQg7Y/VYQsN4ucDDI/AAAAAAAAEOU/uq_o0UaVPXs/s1600/Pic%2B1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="256" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-1eW6lZFQg7Y/VYQsN4ucDDI/AAAAAAAAEOU/uq_o0UaVPXs/s640/Pic%2B1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A poor season for this algorithm as discussed
above. A loss of 24.5pts from 943 bets for a -2.6% ROI. Looking at the
breakdown by value, all the profits were generated in two bands. Bets less than
10% value lost 33.5pts ( low value bets were profitable historically unlike the
other algorithms) and the bets with more than 20% value lost 21.4pts. The
sample sizes for the higher value bets were very low but it is these bets that historically,
have really made the difference on this algorithm as we’ll see later. Only
hitting 1 winner from 20 bets at 25+ value is a killer although the ave odds
are pretty high as you can see.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Unlike the first two algorithms, the low value
bets didn’t do well and I find it slightly annoying that on the first two
algorithms, low value bets were great and were terrible historically and yet on
this algorithm, low value bets did poorly and yet, were profitable
historically. Very irritating!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">If we look at the results on this algorithm
since inception, we can see how annoying these results this season are:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-OHWRMlMfydc/VYQsXgePZwI/AAAAAAAAEOc/wyW9xn0tDrU/s1600/Pic%2B2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-OHWRMlMfydc/VYQsXgePZwI/AAAAAAAAEOc/wyW9xn0tDrU/s640/Pic%2B2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">I guess if I was data mining, I could say that the
value band 25%-30% has struggled since inception and last season’s losses aren’t
a great surprise but the highest value band usually does very well.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Since inception, the overall algorithm has
generated a profit of 4.3% even after last season and therefore, it is
obviously very disappointing to see a losing season. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results of this algorithm for the
past 4 seasons, side by side:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Hk9g53cTI9w/VYQsahkvdmI/AAAAAAAAEOk/vGUOZ2GTxCs/s1600/Pic%2B3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="156" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Hk9g53cTI9w/VYQsahkvdmI/AAAAAAAAEOk/vGUOZ2GTxCs/s640/Pic%2B3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">I think this picture reiterates the fact that
seeing a losing season for this algorithm is very disappointing. The first
season wasn’t great by any means but still a helluva lot better than a loss. A
10% ROI two years ago was maybe the best performance I’ve ever seen by a rating
algorithm over a season. To go from this to a loss in two seasons is very disappointing.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">You could potentially point to the increased
bet number as a mitigating factor for the deterioration in performance but as I
said with the previous review, I don’t think the increased turnover is to blame
for the poor results. Always impossible to prove this but nothing was done to
the ratings to worsen the expected performance going forward.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the Home & Away split for last
season:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-GTc7l8GycLo/VYQsd9dH6AI/AAAAAAAAEOs/VfECoA4a4bw/s1600/Pic%2B4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="104" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-GTc7l8GycLo/VYQsd9dH6AI/AAAAAAAAEOs/VfECoA4a4bw/s640/Pic%2B4.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Homes were slightly better performers than
Aways last season but overall, both lost money.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the same split since inception:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-lo2viEJhJj0/VYQsg4xV3HI/AAAAAAAAEO0/DT-vDXn0xdE/s1600/Pic%2B5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="106" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-lo2viEJhJj0/VYQsg4xV3HI/AAAAAAAAEO0/DT-vDXn0xdE/s640/Pic%2B5.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Again, similar to everything else last season,
the results didn’t match the historical results. Aways have been the most
profitable bets historically and these were the worst bets last season.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Going into the season, the best performing
league on this algorithm was the Championship by far. Of course, 437 bets wasn’t
a big sample but even so, an ROI of 16.3% was impressive and if I was having to
bet on a league performing well on an algorithm, the Championship on algorithm
was nailed on. Here’s the results before this season:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-cSO_tP1plL0/VYQsj7vVthI/AAAAAAAAEO8/osfc3Dn7S7U/s1600/Pic%2B6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="206" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-cSO_tP1plL0/VYQsj7vVthI/AAAAAAAAEO8/osfc3Dn7S7U/s640/Pic%2B6.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Amazingly, the P-value for the results in the
Championship was 2% going into the season. Here’s the results from last season:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-2WObAwOtTWw/VYQsml_vU7I/AAAAAAAAEPE/jcy7j9UczlY/s1600/Pic%2B7.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="204" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-2WObAwOtTWw/VYQsml_vU7I/AAAAAAAAEPE/jcy7j9UczlY/s640/Pic%2B7.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Well, you can obviously guess but the worst
performing league was of course, the Championship. A loss of 25.7pts when on
average, the league was making 25pts a season before last season! Grrrr….</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I think as always, these sample sizes are small
but it shows the difficulties people have with trying to draw conclusions by
league or by any other factor they may use to filter bets. It isn’t easy and in
any season, I honestly believe the results are going to be random and will bear
little resemblance to historical trends. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall then, a first losing season for algorithm
3 although at one stage last season, it looked like the algorithm would make a
profit. The wheels fell off mid season and never really recovered if I’m
honest.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Going forward, there will obviously be doubts
about this algorithm now and I think they are justified. However, one poor
season can’t undo the work of the previous seasons and it’s important this lost
is kept in context. I’ll tweak a few things in the Summer to try to improve the
algorithm and check the changes made last Summer didn’t impact the performance
negatively.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for the 4<sup>th</sup> algorithm:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-iFeBzLl35bc/VYQsp-xq1kI/AAAAAAAAEPM/4FG5_6CoyQo/s1600/Pic%2B8.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="260" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-iFeBzLl35bc/VYQsp-xq1kI/AAAAAAAAEPM/4FG5_6CoyQo/s640/Pic%2B8.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Not much to say here apart from this algorithm
isn’t very good. Coming into the season, it was definitely my poorest
performing algorithm and nothing last season made me change my mind. If anything,
these results reinforce the fact the algorithm isn’t very good.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Annoyingly, the bets that made a profit were
the bets with less than 5% value. Here’s the results coming into the season:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bAGM1n-MpwE/VYQsw92XeZI/AAAAAAAAEPU/iY9pPEnIQG8/s1600/Pic%2B9.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bAGM1n-MpwE/VYQsw92XeZI/AAAAAAAAEPU/iY9pPEnIQG8/s640/Pic%2B9.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">If there was one value band on any algorithm I
wouldn’t have touched with a bargepole, it was low value bets on algorithm 4.
What happens? This is the value band that makes 12.1pts profit, the other value
bands made a loss combined of 65.5pts from 372 bets! Terrible.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the updated results for the algorithm
since inception:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-umXPAehWFZM/VYQs0uHA9WI/AAAAAAAAEPc/86JMXf3_gx8/s1600/Pic%2B10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="232" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-umXPAehWFZM/VYQs0uHA9WI/AAAAAAAAEPc/86JMXf3_gx8/s640/Pic%2B10.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Even after last season’s disaster, the
algorithm is still pretty much break-even after 3 seasons and 2,639 bets.
Although it’s disappointing it hasn’t performed better, it’s not a total disaster
and if you were filtering the bets from system 41, you are at least starting
from a break-even position. There is clearly no edge here though as things
stand at the moment.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Given I basically rebuilt this algorithm last
season on the same basis as the previous algorithm, it’s clear that this method
no longer works. If this algorithm continues, it needs a full rebuild again and
probably ignores any previous method or rules for this algorithm. Not sure I
have the appetite to do this!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Over the last 3 seasons then, here’s the
results:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-aoj9yGaX_ss/VYQs33k8_AI/AAAAAAAAEPk/IFzfCIEAv-g/s1600/Pic%2B11.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="152" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-aoj9yGaX_ss/VYQs33k8_AI/AAAAAAAAEPk/IFzfCIEAv-g/s640/Pic%2B11.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Not much to say, even when the algorithm
performed well, it was still rubbish!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Not going to show any more tables for algorithm
4, not much point really given the poor results. Any members can do this for
themselves using the spreadsheet. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">So, looking at the results for both algorithms,
it’s hard to imagine the other system results being much better. Here’s the
filtering on algorithm 3:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MYPJQJ9rpzM/VYQs7G8__XI/AAAAAAAAEPs/FaGxBCPwE-o/s1600/Pic%2B12.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="130" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MYPJQJ9rpzM/VYQs7G8__XI/AAAAAAAAEPs/FaGxBCPwE-o/s640/Pic%2B12.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Basically, the filtering made very little
difference on algorithm 3. The results were similar for all 3 systems and
basically, the filtering didn’t make things better but didn’t really make
things worse either.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results since inception:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-9a--wUWGDpk/VYQtC5FSsfI/AAAAAAAAEP0/ylHSUYABzUU/s1600/Pic%2B13.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="132" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-9a--wUWGDpk/VYQtC5FSsfI/AAAAAAAAEP0/ylHSUYABzUU/s640/Pic%2B13.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Interestingly, we can see clearly that system
32 and system 33 don’t improve things at all. If anything, they make things a
little bit worse in terms of the results. Therefore, there is little point in
having these systems.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Did system 42 rescue the 4<sup>th</sup>
algorithm? Here’s the results this season:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bk672PoIjoU/VYQtG1_u14I/AAAAAAAAEP8/OH0s7GNTW9o/s1600/Pic%2B14.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="104" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bk672PoIjoU/VYQtG1_u14I/AAAAAAAAEP8/OH0s7GNTW9o/s640/Pic%2B14.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">In a word, no!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results since inception:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-mAbfHmcgETo/VYQtKfBzgHI/AAAAAAAAEQE/JwkmsfDTDNA/s1600/Pic%2B15.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="104" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-mAbfHmcgETo/VYQtKfBzgHI/AAAAAAAAEQE/JwkmsfDTDNA/s640/Pic%2B15.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Same story here, system 42 adds nothing to
system 41.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Based on these system results then, we already know
the combined systems aren’t going to look great. Here’s the results for all 11
New Systems this season:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-W_7Ry8oQS0M/VYQtM5ac8QI/AAAAAAAAEQM/vyob0szC_Ok/s1600/Pic%2B16.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="382" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-W_7Ry8oQS0M/VYQtM5ac8QI/AAAAAAAAEQM/vyob0szC_Ok/s640/Pic%2B16.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A terrible set of results all round. I guess
the only plus point is that the cross referring of the systems ensured the
overall impact of systems 41 and 42 were reduced somewhat but even then, if you
cross refer two losing algorithms, it’s impossible to do well.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">System 33-42 somehow made a profit even though
systems 33 and system 42 were terrible, so it shows you can actually make a
profit cross referring losing systems but it’s easier to do that with lower
turnover systems. Trying to do it with higher turnover systems is much more
difficult.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the same results since the inception of
these systems (have to split it in two since systems 31-33 been alive for an
additional season):<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-3GyDDMaxqE0/VYQtQnmP_PI/AAAAAAAAEQU/CAsSw40sDcU/s1600/Pic%2B17.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="132" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-3GyDDMaxqE0/VYQtQnmP_PI/AAAAAAAAEQU/CAsSw40sDcU/s640/Pic%2B17.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Lsrr-1LeA1M/VYQtUTyG8ZI/AAAAAAAAEQc/xxjjo5lsg58/s1600/Pic%2B18.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="260" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Lsrr-1LeA1M/VYQtUTyG8ZI/AAAAAAAAEQc/xxjjo5lsg58/s640/Pic%2B18.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Overall, the returns from most of these systems
have taken a significant hit after last season and therefore, all these systems
are now under the microscope I think. I think it’s clear that systems 32,33 and
42 don’t improve the returns on either 31 or 42 and therefore, not sure what
the point of having these systems is. The filtering doesn’t work and therefore,
there is no need for these systems.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">My only concern with scrapping them is that
they are used by some people for various methods of filtering the bets but I
suspect that next season, these won’t be official systems in the proofed
results. They will be retired! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall, a really poor set of results and it’s
a shame that these systems have had such a poor season after a solid start for
a few seasons. I need to think long and hard about what I do with these systems
and whether or not they all continue (unlikely) and if I drop some, they need
to probably still highlight the bets they would have had for people using the
number of times a team appears as a filter.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><b>Summer Actions </b>– Decide what I do with this
whole bunch of systems. 31 is the only system that is guaranteed to continue
next season although it’s likely I’ll do a deep dive on the rating algorithm to
see what I can do. Not sure about system 41 or any of the other systems 32,33
and 42. Something needs to be done though! </span></div>
Graeme Dandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-5057051992869635452015-06-05T12:20:00.003+01:002015-06-16T13:43:58.845+01:00Est Systems Review for Season 2014/15<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Similar to previous seasons, I’m going to
review all the various sets of systems, one at a time. It can become quite
boring writing and reading this stuff if I’m honest but as always, I’ll try to
highlight anything that I find interesting and potential things we can look out
for going forward. I’m going to work
from the spreadsheet I sent out to all members at season end which is called
“TFA live results to end of 2014-15 season”. This way, anyone reading this with
access to the sheet can recreate any of these tables themselves. Usually, I
work from my own results sheets I have which contains results for each set of
systems and has some formatting applied to it but I quite like this new sheet
I’ve created and I like the idea that anyone using the sheet can see these
tables for themselves.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">So, this review will look at the performance of
the first two rating algorithms (sys 6 & 21) for the season as well as the
11 Est systems. I’ll also look at the latest live results to date and make some
commentary on these hopefully. As
always, I’ll try to summarise at the end and hopefully provide some sort of
conclusion. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for this season for the
first rating algorithm (system 6):<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-biZun5K5PgY/VXGDhtS2SlI/AAAAAAAAELc/0BxNzHgPXl8/s1600/Pic%2B1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img border="0" height="259" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-biZun5K5PgY/VXGDhtS2SlI/AAAAAAAAELc/0BxNzHgPXl8/s640/Pic%2B1.png" width="640" /></span></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Not a fantastic season by any means but a
profit of 10.8pts from 808 bets, an ROI of 1.3%. At a high level, a solid
enough season for this rating algorithm although as we will see, trying to
filter the bets on this algorithm proved very difficult. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">We can see from the table here that the value
ratings didn’t really work at all. There were 650 bets with a value % of less
than 10% and these did very well, generating a profit of 29pts at an ROI of
4.46%. I think this is about as good as you can expect from these bets and I
would say they hit the target this season. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The issue with this algorithm (it will be a
common theme across reviews) is that the bets with a value of >10% lost
18.2pts from 158 bets. This is ultimately the issue with this algorithm this
season and unfortunately, for whatever reason, these bets have underperformed
massively this season.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">If we look at the results since inception of
the algorithm (value ratings were not shared prior to the 2013/14 season), then
we see that this trend last season is not common across the value bands:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-06VOqv86Lpk/VXGDpeyH_SI/AAAAAAAAELk/vwNXVWmRCIE/s1600/Pic%2B2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="275" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-06VOqv86Lpk/VXGDpeyH_SI/AAAAAAAAELk/vwNXVWmRCIE/s640/Pic%2B2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Since inception of the algorithm, even with last
season’s good returns in the lower value band, backing all bets with less than
5% value has not been profitable. Backing all bets with a value of at least 10%
has generated a profit of 5.5% which although below expectations, is
acceptable. Therefore, seeing a loss of over 11.5% last season is
disappointing.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">One of the aims last Summer with this algorithm
when I was refreshing the ratings was to try to increase the bet number a
little and as the below table shows, this was a success. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FzS9ZzHJAbk/VXGDswPOiNI/AAAAAAAAELs/nC9gUDe0eUA/s1600/Pic%2B3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="206" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-FzS9ZzHJAbk/VXGDswPOiNI/AAAAAAAAELs/nC9gUDe0eUA/s640/Pic%2B3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">However, what I haven’t managed to do (which
was my aim!) was to reverse the downward trend on the ROI. The ROI has been
declining each season since the 2011/12 season and although I refreshed the
algorithm last Summer, I didn’t actually manage to improve on the returns. Now
I’ve seen the underlying results and the fact that last season wasn’t too tough
overall, I’m disappointed by the returns from this algorithm (about to become a
common theme I think during the reviews!).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-8wFevMFR6SU/VXGDyHKDK0I/AAAAAAAAEL0/avq3lCgHvdU/s1600/Pic%2B4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="114" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-8wFevMFR6SU/VXGDyHKDK0I/AAAAAAAAEL0/avq3lCgHvdU/s640/Pic%2B4.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Homes were slightly more profitable than Aways
but interestingly, both Homes and Aways were profitable. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-tdPiAMKXWRE/VXGD1yP2liI/AAAAAAAAEL8/ll1DeKmSjSs/s1600/Pic%2B5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="114" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-tdPiAMKXWRE/VXGD1yP2liI/AAAAAAAAEL8/ll1DeKmSjSs/s640/Pic%2B5.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Looking at results since inception, Aways are
twice as profitable as Homes which is down to the risk/reward I suspect of the
higher odds.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall then, not the greatest season by any
means for this algorithm but considering the performance of the other 3
algorithms, this was my best performing UK algorithm (ignoring the Draw
algorithms). The worry is the clear downward trend on the ROI and if this
continues, we’d probably be looking at a losing season next season. Saying
that, making a profit 5 seasons in a row for any football algorithm is not easy
and therefore, it needs to be applauded for this at least! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for the second rating
algorithm (system 21):<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-p7go17fh1hw/VXGD49LRhmI/AAAAAAAAEME/OePGzRK5dOI/s1600/Pic%2B6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="260" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-p7go17fh1hw/VXGD49LRhmI/AAAAAAAAEME/OePGzRK5dOI/s640/Pic%2B6.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A loss of 12.2pts from 812 bets. An ROI of
-1.5%. The first losing season the algorithm has had since inception.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A similar story to the first algorithm in the
sense the value ratings are all over the place. Coming into this season, the
lowest value bets were loss making over the previous 4 seasons but this season,
the lowest value bets somehow created a profit of 17.3pts at an ROI of 3.5%.
Very good and probably better than I would expect given the value % for these
bets is between 0%-5%. However, all other bets then with a value % of 5%+ made
a loss of 29.5pts from 322 bets. An ROI of -9.2%. Very, very poor.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results since inception for this
algorithm:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-45ECd82wTp4/VXGD71y1tNI/AAAAAAAAEMM/4S7qbCLDRK4/s1600/Pic%2B7.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="276" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-45ECd82wTp4/VXGD71y1tNI/AAAAAAAAEMM/4S7qbCLDRK4/s640/Pic%2B7.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Same sort of story as algorithm 1. Bets with
less than 10% value have generated a profit of 18.7pts from 1,590 bets over 5
seasons. Bets with more than 10% value have generated 122.2pts from 1,322 bets.
Nothing in these results would lead me to believe that we would have suffered
losses from the over 10% value last season. Variance is probably at play due to
the low bet numbers.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results over time for this
algorithm:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/--tn3H6y48no/VXGD_DJ-7hI/AAAAAAAAEMU/6GdIm0WHobA/s1600/Pic%2B8.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="192" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/--tn3H6y48no/VXGD_DJ-7hI/AAAAAAAAEMU/6GdIm0WHobA/s640/Pic%2B8.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">One of the big changes this season as a result
of the tweaks last Summer was the increased bet number. Great that this
algorithm now has more bets as it wasn’t generating enough bets but
unfortunately, the P&L has probably been impacted by the changes too. I’ve
let too many bets sneak onto the algorithm that haven’t been profitable last
season and therefore, the challenge I guess is to try to refine the algorithm
again this Summer to reduce the bet number a little but increase the ROI.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-G_0Ky3yEs5I/VXGECdY723I/AAAAAAAAEMc/cDV35F9FY4s/s1600/Pic%2B9.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="110" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-G_0Ky3yEs5I/VXGECdY723I/AAAAAAAAEMc/cDV35F9FY4s/s640/Pic%2B9.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Unfortunately, Aways were poor and a loss on
Aways caused the issues for this algorithm.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">
</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Here’s the results below since inception:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0un1_53nM9c/VXGEFkf902I/AAAAAAAAEMk/_soj5lFku9E/s1600/Pic%2B10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="106" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0un1_53nM9c/VXGEFkf902I/AAAAAAAAEMk/_soj5lFku9E/s640/Pic%2B10.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Again, the results since inception don’t back
up what we saw last season and Aways have generally been the strongest bets on
this algorithm since inception.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall then, both algorithm’s performance last
season was below par, more so on algorithm 2. Unfortunately, the algorithms
didn’t perform like they did in previous years although how much of this was
down to the increased turnover on each algorithm is unclear. Even so, as I said
last Summer, none of the changes to the algorithms were expected to reduce
profitability and therefore, I wouldn’t put any blame of the underperformance
on these tweaks last Summer. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">So, if it was impossible to filter the rating
algorithms using the value ratings, how did the system filtering do last
season? Unfortunately, it was a similar story.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the filtering on the systems on
algorithm 1 for last season:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-gy22nsFfNNk/VXGEI3SieAI/AAAAAAAAEMs/cLmdPA-sTgU/s1600/Pic%2B11.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="138" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-gy22nsFfNNk/VXGEI3SieAI/AAAAAAAAEMs/cLmdPA-sTgU/s640/Pic%2B11.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A nightmare really for these systems and as you
tried to filter the bets, it became worse and worse. System 7 made a 9.1% loss
which is very poor considering the fact system 6 made a profit and system 8 did
even worse and managed to make a loss of 13.3%. A very poor performance and the
last couple of seasons have been similar.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for the filtering of these
systems based on the first 3 seasons of results:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-GlpRoJf-0CY/VYAZbHcHYrI/AAAAAAAAEN8/nxEzG5nNSGQ/s1600/Pic%2B12.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="136" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-GlpRoJf-0CY/VYAZbHcHYrI/AAAAAAAAEN8/nxEzG5nNSGQ/s640/Pic%2B12.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A perfect example of how I hoped the filtering
would work on the systems and as you reduced the bet number, the ROI increased
and for those that wanted to reduce the bet number by using higher system
numbers, the strategy appeared to be working well.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the same results for the last 2 seasons
only:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-u63awIqNYmw/VXGEOwBmDnI/AAAAAAAAEM8/1XqiY_IOJtM/s1600/Pic%2B13.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="128" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-u63awIqNYmw/VXGEOwBmDnI/AAAAAAAAEM8/1XqiY_IOJtM/s640/Pic%2B13.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Quite amazing how badly the filtering has
worked for the last two seasons and therefore, I have massive question marks
over whether or not system 7 & 8 should continue next season. At the end of
the day, if the systems aren’t adding anything to system 6, then what is the
point in having them.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Based on the last two seasons, you could use
system 7 as a filter on system to weed out the worst bets on system 6! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the full picture for the last 5 seasons:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-snHFhMEHwNE/VXGFRr9tWaI/AAAAAAAAENE/dLNNdb4um9c/s1600/Pic%2B14.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="132" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-snHFhMEHwNE/VXGFRr9tWaI/AAAAAAAAENE/dLNNdb4um9c/s640/Pic%2B14.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Based on this, you have to say that dropping
system 7 and 8 wouldn’t be the worst idea. If you use system 7 as a filter on
system 6, you end up with system 6 improving its ROI and reducing the bet
number. You end up with 2,287 bets and a profit of 124.5pts. An ROI of 5.4%.
The unfiltered ROI is 3.7%. Hence, you can increase the ROI on system 6 by 45%
by excluding all system 7 bets!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The crazy thing is that after the first 3
seasons, it’s hard to think this strategy could have possibly have worked the
last two seasons. Whatever worked for the first 3 systems on this algorithm has
stopped working for the last two seasons.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the filtering on the systems for
algorithm 2 for last season:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Oh0Mfc-EIIQ/VYAaBgbfhXI/AAAAAAAAEOE/8TkR6XxMbeI/s1600/Pic%2B1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="108" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Oh0Mfc-EIIQ/VYAaBgbfhXI/AAAAAAAAEOE/8TkR6XxMbeI/s640/Pic%2B1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A similar story to algorithm 1 where the
filtering has actually worsened the performance of algorithm 2. A 5.5% loss on
system 22 compared to a 1.5% loss on system 21.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">If we look at the first 4 seasons this
algorithm was live (rather than the first 3 as the filtering worked fine last
season), we have the following performance:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-yuTPHaJSAf0/VXGFgsN3rCI/AAAAAAAAENU/LPf3c7DGsJY/s1600/Pic%2B16.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="124" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-yuTPHaJSAf0/VXGFgsN3rCI/AAAAAAAAENU/LPf3c7DGsJY/s640/Pic%2B16.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">As you can see, the filtering has worked
perfectly well up until this season and the ROI increased from 7.3% to 12.3% as
you moved from system 21 to system 22.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">More importantly, system 22 in isolation had
looked a very good system until last season and here’s the returns by season
for this system:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NZA3rlMFl1M/VXGFj3H8VJI/AAAAAAAAENc/-EMPpCVBJOQ/s1600/Pic%2B17.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="182" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-NZA3rlMFl1M/VXGFj3H8VJI/AAAAAAAAENc/-EMPpCVBJOQ/s640/Pic%2B17.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Again, I’m not sure I could have predicted
system 22 would struggle this season. It looked one of the best systems
although as always, sample sizes were small and therefore, there was no
guarantee there was any edge here at all in the previous 4 seasons.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I think unlike system 7 & 8, there appears
to be good rationale for continuing with system 22. It actually adds a fair bit
to the performance of algorithm 2 and I think I would happily write off last
season based on the fact that the previous 4 seasons were very good. More
difficult to do this for systems 7 & 8 given it has happened 2 years in a
row on these systems.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">So, we have seen that filtering the algorithms
based on value ratings didn’t work this season (worked previously) and we have
now seen that filtering systems didn’t work either last season (worked
previously). The last place to filter bets is obviously using the combined
systems and hoping to improve the performance of the basic algorithms by cross
referring the systems.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for last season for the 11
systems in total:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ix_Ey8o42Mk/VXGFnl9Tu_I/AAAAAAAAENk/kGhmUIKGlbQ/s1600/Pic%2B18.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="376" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ix_Ey8o42Mk/VXGFnl9Tu_I/AAAAAAAAENk/kGhmUIKGlbQ/s640/Pic%2B18.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Overall, a loss of 118.4pts from 3,604 bets and
an ROI of -3.3%.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Clearly, systems 7 and 8 are responsible for a
large part of the losses as it has a knock-on impact on the combined systems.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Systems 6-21 and 6-22 had disappointing seasons
but being honest, the results weren’t that bad at all. Same comment probably
goes to system 7-22 and 8-22 although these did have poor seasons. Systems 7-21
and 8-21 had an absolute nightmare of a season and anyone following these
systems would have struggled badly. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">These systems have obviously been around since
the inception of the service. Here’s the updated live results after the season
past:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GTonUxg9bvI/VXGFrueVQHI/AAAAAAAAENs/UynMPbUyDNE/s1600/Pic%2B19.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="398" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GTonUxg9bvI/VXGFrueVQHI/AAAAAAAAENs/UynMPbUyDNE/s640/Pic%2B19.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I think now we have 5 seasons of worth results,
we can draw our own conclusions.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Going back to what I said earlier in
this review, I’m not sure what system 7 or system 8 adds to the party. Clearly,
the filtering from system 6 using these two systems doesn’t work well enough at
all. I either need to look into this over the Summer or I simply need to drop
system 7 & 8. Of course, dropping 7 & 8 would mean dropping 7-21 thru
to 8-22. Looking at the results, I’m not
sure I would like to drop systems 7-21 thru to 8-22. I know one person who has
followed system 7-22 since inception with a little tweak applied and I’d
probably lose this member if system 7-22 was removed!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I have always been a fan of following system
6-21 rather than just following system 6 or 21 and I think this table backs
this up. System 6-22 is also an
improvement on system 22 and therefore, this justifies having system 6-22 in
the portfolio. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Given the fact that systems 7 & 8 are poor,
you really need the cross reference with 21 & 22 to achieve any sort of
meaningful return. Therefore, if you are going to keep system 7 & 8 going,
you really need to keep 7-21 thru to 8-22. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall then, a poor season for these systems
but long-term, the results still look OK. I guess the question is around
whether or not I can improve on the algorithms and base systems in the summer
to hopefully try to stop the slide on the returns over time. Another season
like last season and I suspect these systems are dead (and the service
likewise!).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<b style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Summer Actions</b><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> – Look to do some form of re calibration on both algorithms over the Summer to hopefully increase ROI whilst at the same time,
looking at the 10 base systems that sit behind systems 6,7,8 and possibly look
to improve these if possible. Not sure if I will look at the base systems on
algorithm 2 or not, will see how much time I have this Summer. </span>Graeme Dandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-46732511128348552602015-06-02T13:32:00.000+01:002015-06-02T13:32:56.703+01:002014/15 Season Underlying Results<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I’m now in review mode for the 2014/15
season. I’m actually not looking forward to it really and after the season I’ve
had, reviewing what has happened isn’t going to be much fun but it can’t be
good all the time. I was probably due a poor season after 4 really good seasons
although the season before last didn’t actually feel like that great a season
either. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The last 2 seasons now have been below the profits experienced in the
first 3 seasons and therefore, I suspect the systems and ratings have a lot of
questions to answer going forward. When I refer to this, I’m really referring
to the UK systems as we know them. The Euro ratings & systems have had a
second successive profitable year and the UK draws did OK this season, so it’s
not all doom and gloom. I won't mention the Euro Draws!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Anyway, the various systems and ratings will be
reviewed over the next few weeks.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I thought I should start this summer with a
review of the underlying results. I’ll deal with the UK results first and then
cover the Euros later on in the post. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">If we can recap for a moment, it’s worth
reiterating why it’s worth looking at the underlying results. Historically,
there is a clear correlation between the underlying results and the results of
my ratings. If we see fewer Home wins in the season and more Aways for example,
I would expect my ratings to possible see fewer Home wins and more Aways. If
the strike rate for Aways is very high, I would hope my ratings would catch
more Away wins and therefore, we’d potentially make more profits on Aways. Of
course, the opposite is true for Homes in this circumstance and my ratings
would probably struggle with Home bets if we see an Away bias.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Of course, nothing is ever perfectly
correlated and we have seen spells before where there was a spike in Homes or
Aways and my ratings haven’t caught any of the bias at all. If we’re backing
lots of Homes bets and there is an Away bias, it’s not much good to us if we’re
backing the wrong teams. Likewise, sometimes the bias could be from short-priced
Aways and because my ratings and systems filter out all low priced away bets,
we don’t catch any of the bias and we’ll usually be on the Home bets in these
games, thus creating large losses. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Generally, I have used the underlying results
to try to understand the fluctuations I am seeing in the results in the
short-term. Over the course of the season, things tend to revert close to the
mean we would expect although every season, there will always be a slight bias
towards one or two of the outcomes. Given I have systems which look at Homes,
Aways and Draws, my aim was always that by taking a diversified approach over a
season, we could somehow always ensure that we didn’t end up with too many eggs
in one basket.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Saying all of the above, this season, I have
been aware of the fact that for my UK ratings, the P&L hasn’t been in line
with the underlying results. Even from my investigations, I’m struggling to see
why my ratings and systems haven’t had a better season in the UK leagues and
therefore, it is a bit of a head scratcher. Usually, with these underlying
results, I would have expected a decent season and therefore, it again points
to something being a little bit different this season than the previous 4
seasons.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the underlying results this season
alongside the last 4 seasons:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3CrstV2xwAQ/VW2TdVVyWBI/AAAAAAAAEJc/PKItgerNf5E/s1600/Pic%2B1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="78" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3CrstV2xwAQ/VW2TdVVyWBI/AAAAAAAAEJc/PKItgerNf5E/s640/Pic%2B1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Overall, the Home ROI is the best it has been
since I started out 5 seasons ago with a loss of only 0.6%. The Aways have had
their second best season since I started and it’s amazing to think that
following all Aways created a profit of 2.9%. The downside from these results
is that Draws had their toughest season and a loss of 6.8% if backing all
draws. The strike rate for draws was only 25.3% over the season which is the
lowest strike rate since 2006/07 season.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">So, putting these results together, I would
have bet pretty big bucks that my UK rating algorithms (systems 6,21,31 &
41) would have a profitable season (maybe as good as any of the previous 4 seasons)
and my Draw rating algorithms would have a nightmare season and a big loss. I
was very impressed that my draw algorithms made a profit the previous season when the
draw strike rate was lower than historically, so I would expect the draw
algorithms to really struggle this season with an even lower strike rate.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">As you can see from the picture above at the right hand side, the
results for my ratings were nothing like what I expected to happen. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">In arguably the second easiest season (in terms
of underlying results for Homes/Aways) since I started, 3 of my 4 UK algorithms
have made a loss over the season. In easily the hardest season for UK draws
since 2006/07, both my UK draw algorithms have made a profit. My second draw
algorithm somehow made a profit of 5.8% if backing all games on this algorithm.
Considering the underlying results were a loss of 6.8% (this is to best prices
remember whereas the P&L I’m quoting is to Pinnacle prices only on a
Thursday evening), I would have to say that the performance by system D6 this
season is maybe the most impressive performance from any algorithm since I
started. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">On the other hand, I would have to say that my
4 UK algorithms have under-performed massively looking at these results this
season. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">As I said above, it is a bit of a head
scratcher and it shows us that simply looking at the high level underlying
results and expecting our P&L to follow suit every season is never going to
happen. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the full breakdown by month since I
started:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-2RG94oFDGZs/VW2T8qp-5GI/AAAAAAAAEJk/I7FK1jRewuw/s1600/Pic%2B2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="464" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-2RG94oFDGZs/VW2T8qp-5GI/AAAAAAAAEJk/I7FK1jRewuw/s640/Pic%2B2.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">If we look at the months for the past season, we
can see that for the first 2 months of the season, unless you were backing
Homes, you had no chance of making a profit. As we know, Homes are what my
ratings have the least of and therefore, it’s no surprise that my algorithms
struggled to make much headway these months. The 4 UK algorithms were pretty
much around the break-even mark and the UK Draw algorithms had dug themselves
into a substantial hole looking at the ROIs here.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">November was a slightly easier month and
amazingly, the loss on Homes, Aways and Draws was very similar across each
outcome. Surprisingly, system D1 had a great month and system D6 had a
nightmare month. Funny how a month which had a loss of 1.8% for backing all
Draws can see a profit of 25% on algorithm 1 and a loss of 17% on algorithm 2!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I think December is another tricky month to
fathom. An amazing month for Aways, a nightmare month for Homes & Draws. I
would have expected my UK algorithms to make a profit and the Draws to have a
nightmare. 3 of the 4 algorithms had a losing month and amazingly, the draw
algorithm which had a nightmare in November had an amazing December. A profit of 18.4% when the underlying results
lost 12.2% is an amazing result.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">January underlying results were pretty good and
my 4 UK algorithms made massive profits. The best month of the season by far
for the ratings. Another poor month for the UK Draw algorithms and it’s been a
tough season so far for Draws!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">February should have been a dream month with an
8% and 9% return for Homes & Aways but it just didn’t happen for my ratings
at all. Algorithm 1 made a 19.4% return but algorithm 3 made a loss in one of
the easiest months the ratings have had in terms of underlying results since I
started. Another loss for Draw ratings this month which was to be expected.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">March is easily the month where I get very,
very confused. A return of 24.8% if backing all Aways. Same story as December,
3 of the 4 algorithms have made a loss this month. Before this season, it is
hard to find a losing algorithm in a month where the Away bias is so favourable
and yet, it has happened twice in one season! Draws were a substantial loss
again given the low strike rate. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">April then came along, was very favourable for
Draws, a nightmare for Homes & Aways and boom, the 4 UK rating algorithms
run up a massive loss in the month. The worst month the ratings have ever had together in total and considering they hadn’t made good profits during the favourable months
previously, no surprise to see the way the season turned out for these ratings.
Although the month was favourable for Draw bettors, nothing like what the Draw
ratings managed to do and the algorithms achieved a 20% and 45% profit to
recoup most of the seasons losses in one fell swoop! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">May was again favourable for Homes/Aways and
although 3 of the 4 algorithms capitalised, the bet numbers were small and it
didn’t make too much of a dent in the overall results for the season. Algorithm
2 somehow made a loss too this month which means for 3 very favourable months
for Aways, the ratings haven’t capitalised at all. The Draw ratings ended the
season well although the bet number was tiny.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">So, in a season that was very favourable for
Homes/Aways, the ratings have had a nightmare and whilst I would have expected
losses for my Draw ratings, they did very well!
All in all, a very strange season I think.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the breakdown by league for this season:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-xzxfpgOgSXU/VW2gAZQ3NWI/AAAAAAAAEJ0/2VIfeyWCA98/s1600/Pic%2B3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="116" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-xzxfpgOgSXU/VW2gAZQ3NWI/AAAAAAAAEJ0/2VIfeyWCA98/s640/Pic%2B3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">I always think a season isn’t a long time for
looking at this sort of breakdown and if you look at the historical results,
the breakdown by league does bob around every season.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The Championship was a league I struggled with
most of the season to get my head around and looking at these results, I sort
of see why. I never seemed to hit the right Home/Away winners in this league
all season and the draw was a pest. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The SPL is another league I struggle with and
looking at the underlying results, it’s disappointing that this is the case.
Again, I can’t seem to hit the correct home and away winners in this league.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the breakdown by month again which is
maybe easier to see than the picture above:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-P3sdLWTE1vU/VW2gL-32e4I/AAAAAAAAEJ8/I5jHF1G3YwY/s1600/Pic%2B4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="164" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-P3sdLWTE1vU/VW2gL-32e4I/AAAAAAAAEJ8/I5jHF1G3YwY/s640/Pic%2B4.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Here’s the breakdown by day of the week:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-PDgxMhLgzkI/VW2gUsOUpHI/AAAAAAAAEKE/--GZklFTvv4/s1600/Pic%2B5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="130" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-PDgxMhLgzkI/VW2gUsOUpHI/AAAAAAAAEKE/--GZklFTvv4/s640/Pic%2B5.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Although all of the above is interesting, I’m
not sure any of it explains why we’ve had a tough season this season. If
anything, it definitely points to this season not being any tougher than the
last 4 seasons on average and therefore, it’s disappointing my ratings have
struggled so badly.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The last place to look is the odds. We know
that from the above, backing all Homes/Aways was profitable this season. We
know that my ratings play in the higher odds ranges and therefore, the last
question we need to answer is related to the odds. Has there been a bias
towards longer prices this season?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s a pic simply showing the P&L if
backing teams above/below 2.75:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-IhJA1afWmwo/VW2grnTFIUI/AAAAAAAAEKM/wIjnkF6LJzQ/s1600/Pic%2B6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="63" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-IhJA1afWmwo/VW2grnTFIUI/AAAAAAAAEKM/wIjnkF6LJzQ/s400/Pic%2B6.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Given about 90% of my bets come from the group
2.76+, it is so, so frustrating to see that it has actually been a profitable
set of bets.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">To recap, the same results last season is shown
below:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-h9Cxd1iLa1k/VW2g828tRBI/AAAAAAAAEKU/ukWJcgF4mQw/s1600/Pic%2B7.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="63" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-h9Cxd1iLa1k/VW2g828tRBI/AAAAAAAAEKU/ukWJcgF4mQw/s400/Pic%2B7.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">As you can see, the previous season was a much
less favourable year and my ratings did pretty well. This season is probably
the easiest year I’ve had since inception and my ratings have had a nightmare.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s a breakdown of the odds ranges for the
2014/15 season split by Home and Aways:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7jw50qm-dr8/VW2hHS4nNdI/AAAAAAAAEKc/jI0WtmMAeSw/s1600/Pic%2B8.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="180" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7jw50qm-dr8/VW2hHS4nNdI/AAAAAAAAEKc/jI0WtmMAeSw/s640/Pic%2B8.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">It starts to look even worse!</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">We know that most of my Aways are in the
2.75-6.00 odds range and backing all these bets returned a profit of 6.5%.
Therefore, for me to not have a good season after seeing these underlying
results is mindboggling to me!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Right, how do I summarise this? Well, quite simply, all 4 of my UK rating
algorithms have had a very, very poor season. The worst season they’ve had
since inception and given how favourable the underlying results appear to be,
you have to really question my ratings after last season.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">On the other hand, my UK draw ratings appear to
have had quite an exceptional year. Yes, the profits aren’t great but given how
tough a season it was for backing UK draws, you have to think that when the
strike rate increases a little for draws, these draw ratings can only get
better. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I’m so used to using the underlying results to
show that my ratings are outperforming expectations but for whatever reason,
this happened for the 2014/15 season. The UK Draw ratings have done very well
but all 4 UK algorithms underperformed badly. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I’ll quickly look at the Euro underlying
results now. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results by season updated to include
last season:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-YYzzjKCYUQM/VW2hUp9fP9I/AAAAAAAAEKk/yBNfK1yCkHk/s1600/Pic%2B9.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="92" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-YYzzjKCYUQM/VW2hUp9fP9I/AAAAAAAAEKk/yBNfK1yCkHk/s640/Pic%2B9.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">At a high level, these numbers look favourable
for all 3 outcomes last season. Homes are probably a little down on historical
experience (remember there has only been 2 losing seasons for backing all Home
bets since 2007/08) but even so, there was still a marginal profit if backing
all Home bets in these leagues.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Aways were a marginal loss and again, looking
at the historical results, slightly worse than the last two seasons but much
better than previous seasons. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Draws had their 2<sup>nd</sup> best season out
of the last 5 seasons, both in terms of strike rate and ROI although it was
still a loss making season. As I picked up in the pre-season post last Summer
about the Draws in these leagues, every season for the last 9 seasons have now
been loss making for the underlying draws and with an average loss of 7%,
backing draws in these leagues seems a difficult place to be. Of course, the
upside of this is that backing Homes (and possibly Aways) is the place to be
and I think the results I’ve seen this season for the Euro systems back this
up.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I think when you see the fact that the
Underlying draws only lost 2.7% and yet, my Euro Draw ratings lost 9.8% and
13.6% respectively, it backs up what we picked up very early on in the season
and that these ratings were rubbish. I guess I wasn’t totally surprised
although as always, it’s disappointing to spend time building something to
basically watch it never get off the ground or a better metaphor is probably
getting off the ground and then crashing and burning very quickly. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">On the other hand, the Euro ratings have
followed up their first good season with another great season and I would have
to say that based on the last two seasons, these ratings would probably be my
best ratings. Considering the first attempt I had at building Euro ratings
failed miserably, in a weird way, it sort of gives me hope for the Euro draw
systems if I want to have another go at producing a new set of ratings.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I guess the biggest difference between having a
second attempt at Euro Draw ratings and my second attempt at the Euro systems
was that I was always confident I could find an edge with a set of Euro
ratings. The underlying results look OK and I’m sure I just needed a second
attempt at building the ratings again and I would have a good shot at getting
it right.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">After seeing the strike rate for Euro Draws
again this season and seeing the fact that all of the underlying profits this
season have come from one league (Italy), it doesn’t exactly fill me with
confidence that trying to build another set of Euro Draw ratings is the way to
go. The other 3 leagues made massive losses for Draws again and therefore, I
have to think that if the bookmakers are going to continue to under-price
draws, backing Homes/Aways is the place to go.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">In terms of the Euro ratings, I have to say
I’ve been massively impressed with these ratings over the last two seasons.
It’s a shame I didn’t nail these ratings first time round as their proofed
results are ruined a little by the losses in the first season but even so, the
last two seasons have been impressive.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Algorithm 1 (System E1) has had 2 losing months
in the last 14 months and for any rating algorithm, this is impressive stuff.
The second algorithm has had a few small losses which has meant a little bit of
red has crept onto the page but even so, the results are decent.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The actual season results show that algorithm 2
is slightly more profitable than algorithm 1 over the last 2 seasons but there
isn’t much in it. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall, I’m looking forward to seeing if these
Euro algorithms can build on the last two seasons and if they can, I suspect
the focus will switch away from UK bets and more towards Euro bets for most of
us following the systems.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the breakdown by league:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-YwLtUQU4QTs/VW2hd4g2WXI/AAAAAAAAEKs/5oJpgUBAB40/s1600/Pic%2B10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="82" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-YwLtUQU4QTs/VW2hd4g2WXI/AAAAAAAAEKs/5oJpgUBAB40/s640/Pic%2B10.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">This is what makes this game so interesting at
times for me. A few people have suggested I have different ratings for
different leagues based on historical trends but the truth is, the results over
a season are purely random. No one knew that Italy was going to be a goldmine
for Draws any more than Germany would be a goldmine for Homes. Based on the
previous 4 seasons, Italy was the worst place to be for Draws and my ratings
had picked this up clearly. I had fewer Draws in Italy and boom, an amazing
season comes along for Draws in Italy.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Historically, France was the best league for
Draws and although the average odds were lower in this league, there profits in
2 of the last 4 seasons for underlying draws in France. Boom, an 18.4% loss for
underlying draws in France and of course, my ratings took a bath here.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Backing all Homes in Spain had been profitable
for 7 seasons in a row before last season. Boom, a 6.7% loss this season.
Italian Homes has been the other place to be historically, profits in most
seasons. Boom, an 8% loss last season.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">As I said, this is what makes this game
interesting and if it was as easy as simply following historical trends,
everyone would be making money at football betting. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">My Draw ratings were clearly not smart enough
to get around these changes in trends this season and unfortunately, they
suffered the consequences as a result. On the other hand, my Euro ratings have
navigated through the season well and didn’t get too caught up in these
short-term blips.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the P&L by month again in a table
that’s easier to read for this season:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ChWs-H0F-CQ/VW2hq0R5ucI/AAAAAAAAEK0/ROMCNo5Zeuc/s1600/Pic%2B11.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="164" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ChWs-H0F-CQ/VW2hq0R5ucI/AAAAAAAAEK0/ROMCNo5Zeuc/s640/Pic%2B11.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the P&L by day of the week:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-a4BUUL89Vkw/VW2hyvYCZiI/AAAAAAAAEK8/8qbLEKAaALw/s1600/Pic%2B12.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="130" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-a4BUUL89Vkw/VW2hyvYCZiI/AAAAAAAAEK8/8qbLEKAaALw/s640/Pic%2B12.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Interestingly, one thing I noticed the season
before last was that there was a slight Home bias on a Saturday and a Sunday
and a slight Away bias in midweek. I have noticed the exact same trend last
season. Not sure I’d start acting on this but it will be interesting to see if
it continues next season too.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">For Euro bets, most of my bets fall into the
2.51+ price range rather than below this. The results have been slightly
favourable in this group last season.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"> </span><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8jIKOqTBIjk/VW2h8hZ-tII/AAAAAAAAELE/a0ZzlNulKAw/s1600/Pic%2B13.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="63" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8jIKOqTBIjk/VW2h8hZ-tII/AAAAAAAAELE/a0ZzlNulKAw/s400/Pic%2B13.png" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Here’s the breakdown between Homes & Aways
for a few odds ranges.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7Le5iTkfWGk/VW2iFl0jSAI/AAAAAAAAELM/vmuaDkfrWzU/s1600/Pic%2B14.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="180" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7Le5iTkfWGk/VW2iFl0jSAI/AAAAAAAAELM/vmuaDkfrWzU/s640/Pic%2B14.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Big priced Homes and big priced Aways was the
place to be last season generally and thankfully, this is where a lot of my
bets occur in the Euro leagues.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">To summarise the Euro results then, a very good
performance from the Euro rating algorithms against favourable conditions
although to be fair, the conditions appear favourable every year for Homes/Aways
in these leagues. Euro Draws underperformed massively and the results were a
little more favourable than normal. However, finding any sort of edge in these
leagues with Draws looks to be difficult to me and I guess I need to seriously
consider whether or not it is worth the effort of trying to find an edge. </span>Graeme Dandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-8326491216820895902015-05-02T23:32:00.000+01:002015-05-02T23:32:07.119+01:00Monthly Review for April 2015<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Well, after a nightmare March, I was really hoping April
would see the systems return to some sort of normality and get back on track.
Unfortunately, the systems have followed up a nightmare March with an absolute
shocker of a month in April. The actual losses aren’t anywhere near as bad as
March at an overall level but some of the most popular systems within the
service have really suffered during April, so on the back of a poor March, it’s
not looking great.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Any hope of a break-even season are long gone and it’s
simply about how big a loss the systems will have this season. The graph of all
system returns is shown below along with the drawdown graph.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-11Jf7i-MjWw/VUVM499uOaI/AAAAAAAAEHw/hK6QEUjEE4Q/s1600/Pic%2B1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-11Jf7i-MjWw/VUVM499uOaI/AAAAAAAAEHw/hK6QEUjEE4Q/s1600/Pic%2B1.png" height="384" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CUqdMvdZqD8/VUVM-zbBd6I/AAAAAAAAEH4/sxJ-M6YHgwg/s1600/Pic%2B2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CUqdMvdZqD8/VUVM-zbBd6I/AAAAAAAAEH4/sxJ-M6YHgwg/s1600/Pic%2B2.png" height="382" width="640" /></a></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">As you can see, it’s not a pretty sight and the overall
drawdown is now at 800pts. To put this drawdown in some sort of context, the
systems had generated a profit of 2,345pts in the first 41 months of the
service. They have lost 800pts in 3 months. Around 1/3 of the overall profit
for the service has been lost in 3 months. That’s a fairly substantial drawdown
in a short space of time.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">What has happened I can hear you all thinking. Being
honest, I don’t know. All of the main ratings services have suffered
substantial drawdowns over the last 2-3 months and in many cases, the drawdowns
have been equivalent to the betting bank for the system or service. In my case,
many of my systems have lost a betting bank from the peak of the P&L and
therefore, it is very worrying.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Personally, since the middle of January, I have lost the
equivalent of my betting bank which has been very painful to say the least. The
problem with doing this as a hobby is that I got used to winning and you sort
of mentally bank the profit you’ll make every year. This game isn’t easy at
times, it can be very time consuming but knowing that you’ll make a little
income each year makes it worthwhile. At the moment, my head is in a spin as
I’ve lost all of the profits I had generated this season so far and another 50%
of my betting bank. In terms of income made from betting, I’m back at a level I
was at mid April 2014. Hence, I have basically broke even over the last 12
months.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Looking further back, I first hit the profit level I’m at
now in April 2013. Therefore, I have made no profit betting for the last 24
months in total!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Break-even may not sound too bad over 24 months but when
I think about how much time and effort has gone into this, it’s a really poor
return. A conservative estimate is maybe 1,00 hours. Not sure anyone would like
to work for free for 1,000 hours. I’ve joked about this on Twitter but my daily
spend the last few months is in 3 figures. People with bad drug habits spend
less than I’m spending at the moment which is crazy!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Of course, it’s always easy to get caught up in the
short-term and I know I should assess things at season end and look at the
season as a whole but even if I do this, I’m looking at losing 50% of my
betting bank this season and no profit for the last 2 years.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I have said this a few times in emails and on Twitter but
I really need to consider whether or not I continue past this season. Of
course, the service is separate to my own betting activities and just because
I’ve made no profit in 2 years doesn’t mean everyone else is in the same boat.
However, I have always ran the service on the side of my betting and being
honest, the returns from the betting is what makes this worthwhile for me. With
no returns from betting, it’s hard to justify even having the service and I
have a bit of thinking to do over the early summer about the future.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Anyway, here’s the results for the month of April.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><u>Est Systems</u></b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for the first two rating algorithms,
split by Home & Away bets:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-mxG1jLJw9MM/VUVN-yCLvWI/AAAAAAAAEIE/UQRT55XzARM/s1600/Pic%2B3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-mxG1jLJw9MM/VUVN-yCLvWI/AAAAAAAAEIE/UQRT55XzARM/s1600/Pic%2B3.png" height="146" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BbjIlvt28HI/VUVOC21rsHI/AAAAAAAAEIM/C9CRXluz1kI/s1600/Pic%2B4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-BbjIlvt28HI/VUVOC21rsHI/AAAAAAAAEIM/C9CRXluz1kI/s1600/Pic%2B4.png" height="150" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A lot to take in here but whatever way you look at these
tables, it’s rubbish.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The first thing that jumps out to me is that both Homes
and Aways are loss making on each algorithm. This doesn’t happen too often in a
month and we usually see a little pocket of bets do OK in one of the
categories. The other thing that jumps out to me is the performance of the low
value bets. These have really been a head scratcher this season and after
over-performing for most of the season, they have really gone down the tubes in
April.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">System 21 had 70 bets with less than 5% value and only
found 14 winners. A loss of 37.2pts. This is greater than the loss the
algorithm had this month, so the bets >5% value were profitable.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The draw was a pest for the Away bets on both algorithms
and you can see the AH returns increasing as you take more draw cover on Aways
this month. The draw has been fairly quiet so far this season but it definitely
hit back a little in April.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall, both algorithms had a nightmare and therefore, the
combined systems will have a nightmare too.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results from all 11 systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zOx333WmEaU/VUVOSoAm8KI/AAAAAAAAEIU/qQSw_gMqNB0/s1600/Pic%2B5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zOx333WmEaU/VUVOSoAm8KI/AAAAAAAAEIU/qQSw_gMqNB0/s1600/Pic%2B5.png" height="164" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A loss of 114.2pts from 506 bets. Hard to be positive
about anything in this picture. The filtering didn’t work on algorithm 1,
systems 7 & 8 were worse than system 6. The filtering worked much better on
system 22 (as it has traditionally to be fair) and system only lost 3.5pts.
Basically, the less bets that appeared on system 22 the better.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The combined systems didn’t ease the pain either and
unless you were doing something with the value ratings this month on these
algorithms, you had to take a bath. Although, doing the same thing with the
value ratings in previous months would have had you taking a pretty big bath
then, so it’s swings and roundabouts. Whatever way you look at it, it’s rubbish
this season.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><u>New Systems</u></b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for the next two algorithms:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-jjRXr593Ew8/VUVO3_sL-uI/AAAAAAAAEIc/gCKisaB6oHg/s1600/Pic%2B6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-jjRXr593Ew8/VUVO3_sL-uI/AAAAAAAAEIc/gCKisaB6oHg/s1600/Pic%2B6.png" height="174" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-y-_S5vsdDVs/VUVO9X4mxDI/AAAAAAAAEIk/rN7kCv_IXfY/s1600/Pic%2B7.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-y-_S5vsdDVs/VUVO9X4mxDI/AAAAAAAAEIk/rN7kCv_IXfY/s1600/Pic%2B7.png" height="156" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A disaster of a month for both algorithms and the worst
month system 31 has had by quite a long way. The previous worst month was a
26pts loss, so to hit a 45pts loss takes some going. Aways were to blame with
only 12 winners from 91 bets. The draw was clearly a pest and the average odds
were quite high this month (higher than the long-term average), so I guess if a
few of these draws had been wins, we’d have been looking at a much different
month.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">System 41 had another nightmare (becoming the norm for this
system) and only managed to find 10 winners from 70 away bets. The higher value
home bets did well on system 41 (similar to historical results) but that’s
about the only positive I can take from either of these tables. A disaster
month.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">When the ratings have had a month like this, the combined
systems are going to feel the pain. Here’s the results of the 11 systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-TnTEgxzm3AU/VUVPDL16oII/AAAAAAAAEIs/Zhl_7wLIn6w/s1600/Pic%2B8.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-TnTEgxzm3AU/VUVPDL16oII/AAAAAAAAEIs/Zhl_7wLIn6w/s1600/Pic%2B8.png" height="152" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A 146.4pts loss from 641 bets after a loss of 80pts in
March. Sad times for what was previously a very decent set of systems with good
long-term results.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Similar to the Est Systems, it is difficult to take any
positives from the results here. All 11 systems lost badly although the draw
was clearly a nuisance for these systems. The loss was only 22.9pts for using
AH0.5 on all bets which is about 7 times better than backing outright.
Basically, you would have made a good profit this month backing all these bets
to be draws rather than the selections to win. When this is the case, it’s
always going to be difficult to make a profit.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Hard to know what else to say. System 31 is the most
popular system by far amongst subscribers, it’s the one I have invested in the
most over the last couple of seasons myself and it is currently on a drawdown
of 80pts. Says it all really. I’m happy for the service to be judged on system
31 and ultimately, this makes it a nightmare losing run for the service and a
nightmare season.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><u>Misc Systems</u></b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for the systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6FUlKbv8-FI/VUVPTAWTWbI/AAAAAAAAEI0/dTULG-iNMBE/s1600/Pic%2B9.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6FUlKbv8-FI/VUVPTAWTWbI/AAAAAAAAEI0/dTULG-iNMBE/s1600/Pic%2B9.png" height="100" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Given all these systems are subsets of previous systems
already discussed to some degree, these losses aren’t too much of a surprise. A
loss of 75.2pts from 386 bets.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Until this month, 21-31 was doing a great job at missing
some of the carnage on the other systems but this has now gone. A 20.7pts loss
from 77 bets for this system decimates the season return.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The SGM systems (TOX, STOY and STOZ) are not helping the
situation at all and are just haemorrhaging points every month like the other
systems and it seems no matter what method is used at the moment, the losses
are accumulating.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><u>Draw Systems</u></b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for the UK Draw systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-lmCeUJRy46U/VUVPlbK5zDI/AAAAAAAAEI8/Ep7k6zy9G4Y/s1600/Pic%2B10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-lmCeUJRy46U/VUVPlbK5zDI/AAAAAAAAEI8/Ep7k6zy9G4Y/s1600/Pic%2B10.png" height="272" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Given my comments above regarding the impact of the draw
on many systems this month, you won’t be too surprised by these returns this
month. A profit of 134.3pts from 298 bets.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">It has been a really, really strange season for the UK
draw systems. Coming into the season, I actually had great confidence in these
systems after last season. Although they only had one season behind them, they
performed well in a tough season for draw betting generally and I figured these
systems were ‘potentially’ my best systems. Very easy to get the quoted prices
or better for nearly all the games and with good results in a tough season,
surely they would perform better this season?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Well, errr….. no. They started the season terribly,
clawed the losses back by the end of December and I was looking forward to 2015
for these systems. A loss in Jan, a loss in Feb and then the mother of all
losses in March. Thankfully, with April’s profits, the systems are sort of back
on an even keel (small loss) and with a good May, they could escape with a
break-even season.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I guess my assumption that this season would be better
was based on the likelihood that the draw strike rate would be higher than last
season. This hasn’t happened and this season looks like being another tough
season for draws.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">We’ll revaluate things at season end and if the systems
have did OK for two seasons in quite difficult trading conditions, it probably
bodes well for the future. Could do with a good May though to help rebuild some
confidence.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><u>Euro Systems</u></b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for the systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-LNpLhZczq70/VUVP8MOZulI/AAAAAAAAEJE/Sfmq1wffob0/s1600/Pic%2B11.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-LNpLhZczq70/VUVP8MOZulI/AAAAAAAAEJE/Sfmq1wffob0/s1600/Pic%2B11.png" height="184" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A loss of 0.9pts from 405 bets. These systems have really
been the stars of the service so far this season and in a month when UK systems
are losing hundreds of points, it’s nice to see these systems pretty much
break-even.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The filtering worked well, particularly on system E2 and
it managed to filter out the bad bets from E1 quite well. The combined
systems benefitted from this and managed a profit of 10.1pts from 180 bets this
month.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall, a solid enough month and hopefully these systems
can end their season with a solid May and it will be the second decent season
in a row for these systems.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><u>Euro Draw Systems</u></b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for the systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-qQ2i0Gg1gPc/VUVQOOOvCmI/AAAAAAAAEJM/0Id_-C9b__o/s1600/Pic%2B12.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-qQ2i0Gg1gPc/VUVQOOOvCmI/AAAAAAAAEJM/0Id_-C9b__o/s1600/Pic%2B12.png" height="386" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Considering the other months this season for these
systems, this has to go down as a great month. They only lost 11pts from 461
bets.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">No idea what I do with these systems at season end. I
could use them as lay systems possibly, I could use them to generate more Euro
bets (backing Homes/Aways rather than the Draw) or I can have a go at creating
another set of Euro draw systems or I could even keep these going (unlikely!).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Anyway, in a month when the UK systems fell off a cliff,
I can’t moan about an 11pts loss.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall, a loss this month of 213.4pts from 2,697 bets.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Well, another month, another loss and given the downward
trajectory on most of my system’s P&L graphs at the moment, I’m not really
looking forward to May I think! Let’s see what happens.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<o:p></o:p></div>
Graeme Dandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-77563067910670298432015-04-09T12:22:00.004+01:002015-04-09T12:22:51.815+01:00March 2015 Monthly Review<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I should just paste up the link to the March
2014 review and tell you to read this alongside the results for March 2015. It
is quite scary how similar the month of March we’ve just experienced was to
March 2014 and it was another nightmare month for the systems.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">My conclusion last year is quite similar to where I am now. <i>“Mar-14 will now join the months of Feb-11,
Apr-11 and Sep-13 in my memory bank. For me personally, this is the biggest
loss I’ve ever suffered from betting and it has been a wake up call for me.
I’ve discussed this before on the blog but I appreciate the way I play this
game carries lots of risks but I have always felt like the returns were
appropriate for the level of risk I was taking. Before this month, I was on
course for a pretty good season which considering the start I had this season,
would have been amazing. 4 weeks later and any thoughts of doubling my betting
bank this season for the 4th straight season are gone. I’d take break-even
again which is what I said a few months ago before things started going well.”<o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">March 2015 goes down as my 2<sup>nd</sup> worst
month of betting ever, not surprisingly, behind March 2014. Amazing how history
repeats itself at times although my actual £ loss this year was a bit
smaller. I’m pretty much break-even for the
season. I said the same when I wrote the monthly review last year but I would
happily take break-even for the season now. The current trends all point to me
making a loss though, so I’m hoping for a swift turnaround in fortune.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Last year, it was a bit of a miraculous
recovery but I followed my worst ever betting month with my best ever month and
therefore, I actually ended the season in an OK place. Wasn’t a vintage season
by any means and was well down on the previous 3 seasons in terms of ROI and
ROC but at least I made a profit that was acceptable to me. Roll on 12 months
and unless I see another miraculous recovery, I could be facing up to my first
ever loss as a football bettor over a season. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">In terms of the service and the systems, I
think it now looks odds on that the systems will have their first ever loss
over a season and therefore, it’s looking like a very disappointing season.
Ironically, at the start of February, the systems were pretty much break-even
after a great January but they’ve given back all these profits over the next
couple of months to be in a hole again.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">As promised in the last post, here’s the
updated P&L for all systems to the end of March. I have also included the
graph of the drawdowns.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lsP-y3CXSBQ/VSZgS_775XI/AAAAAAAAEGE/x56KFdPWN1g/s1600/1.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-lsP-y3CXSBQ/VSZgS_775XI/AAAAAAAAEGE/x56KFdPWN1g/s1600/1.PNG" height="384" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Q9RQc1mb_E8/VSZgV5kxEfI/AAAAAAAAEGM/TY3Opql8ECw/s1600/2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Q9RQc1mb_E8/VSZgV5kxEfI/AAAAAAAAEGM/TY3Opql8ECw/s1600/2.PNG" height="382" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">As you can see, the systems are now on their 2<sup>nd</sup>
worst drawdown since inception although they still have a bit to go before
matching the drawdown we witnessed 12 months ago.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Anyway, enough doom and gloom. This is meant to
be a review of the month, not a funeral for the systems and the service. Onto
the review…..<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Est
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for algorithms 1 & 2:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rD4XDtVO2OM/VSZga6lroUI/AAAAAAAAEGU/RAfyUNUpoFQ/s1600/3.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rD4XDtVO2OM/VSZga6lroUI/AAAAAAAAEGU/RAfyUNUpoFQ/s1600/3.PNG" height="120" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-NdQG4-V-AI0/VSZgd8S2ZSI/AAAAAAAAEGc/_4AQT6DeXag/s1600/4.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-NdQG4-V-AI0/VSZgd8S2ZSI/AAAAAAAAEGc/_4AQT6DeXag/s1600/4.PNG" height="120" width="640" /></a></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">An 11.1pts loss from 102 bets on algorithm 1. Only
2 winners from 16 bets with 10%+ value shows the major issue this month on this
algorithm.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Algorithm 2 did much better and managed a
profit of 4.3pts from 118 bets. Again, when you look at the value bands, you
are left scratching your head. 11.1pts profit for bets with less than 10% value
and a loss of 6.8pts for bets with more than 10% value. Not really the pattern
of results we’re looking for.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">You would expect the systems to make a loss if
I’m honest with these results. The wrong bets were winning and one algorithm
had a substantial loss too. Here’s the results for the 11 systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-9JM9LIyggeQ/VSZgh3RxBqI/AAAAAAAAEGk/KzOAY1hOxXM/s1600/5.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-9JM9LIyggeQ/VSZgh3RxBqI/AAAAAAAAEGk/KzOAY1hOxXM/s1600/5.PNG" height="164" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A loss of 38.8pts from 553 bets. The filtering
on the first algorithm made things worse which is hardly surprising given only
2 winners had 10% value. Systems 7 and 8 really struggled again but they had
little chance given the poor results on system 6.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">System 22 performed in line with system 21.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The combined systems lost 15.8pts from 224 bets
which was disappointing and the combined systems are on course for another poor
season this season I think. Given the results on system 6 and 21, it’s actually
very disappointing that the combined systems are going to post a loss for the
season but I said the exact same last season. The filtering on systems 6 and 21
just doesn’t work any longer or at least, nowhere near like it worked in the
first couple of seasons. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall, a disappointing month for these
systems but as we’ll see, this loss wasn’t too bad in the context of the rest
of the TFA systems this month. There is much worse to come!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">New
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for algorithms 3 & 4:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VFlUgleioW4/VSZgl64yKAI/AAAAAAAAEGs/dUa2zUl_Z6M/s1600/6.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-VFlUgleioW4/VSZgl64yKAI/AAAAAAAAEGs/dUa2zUl_Z6M/s1600/6.PNG" height="174" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-K1Dp0zOLpYE/VSZgp1sZIkI/AAAAAAAAEG0/9NX65CTTWac/s1600/7.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-K1Dp0zOLpYE/VSZgp1sZIkI/AAAAAAAAEG0/9NX65CTTWac/s1600/7.PNG" height="166" width="640" /></a></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A 14.2pts loss from 134 bets on algorithm 3.
Considering this is my best algorithm, the results have dropped off a cliff
from mid January and we have now gone past the historical worse drawdown for
this system. Very disappointing and after 3 very good seasons, there is a
chance we’ll see this algorithm have its first losing season. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Algorithm 4 was more predictable with a loss of
10.5pts from 109 bets. Difficult to know what to do with this algorithm. It
clearly has no edge and I’m tempted to keep it going to use it as a filter for
other systems! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A couple of highlights from the value bands.
Low value bets on system 31 lost 16.9pts, so if you exclude these bets, the
algorithm managed a profit. Of course, the issue historically is that these low
value bets on algorithm 3 are profitable, so you wouldn’t be excluding these.
You’d be excluding the low value bets on the other algorithms and this season,
they’ve made all the profits!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">To highlight this again, low value bets on
algorithm 4 made a profit of 15.3pts. A stunning return again from these low
value bets on this algorithm but unfortunately, the bets with a value of 5%+
lost 25.8pts! You couldn’t make this up. It’s like the complete reversal of
what we have seen historically on this algorithm. Goes back to a point I made
above, the wrong bets are winning on the algorithms! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall then, with two algorithms doing really
badly, the system results aren’t going to look pretty. Here’s the results from
the 11 systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-n48ITNW5WaY/VSZgt72z-BI/AAAAAAAAEG8/vy1OoYjrZAo/s1600/8.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-n48ITNW5WaY/VSZgt72z-BI/AAAAAAAAEG8/vy1OoYjrZAo/s1600/8.PNG" height="164" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">An 80pt loss from 627 bets. Disaster. On the
plus side, the systems lost over 200pts last March from fewer bets, so it’s not
as bad as last season’s performance in March.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Hard to take any positives from the results on
these systems. System 33-42 somehow made a profit which is good going
considering the rubbish performance on system 42! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall, a shocking month and these systems
have dug themselves a hole for the season (again!). Could do with a quick
recovery in April.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Misc
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results from the 6 systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-rCi_opOxv5U/VSZgxlEBFrI/AAAAAAAAEHE/QFCsEEE_QGA/s1600/9.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-rCi_opOxv5U/VSZgxlEBFrI/AAAAAAAAEHE/QFCsEEE_QGA/s1600/9.PNG" height="104" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A loss of 31pts from 374 bets. A shocking month
for STOZ (again!) and amazingly, STOZ found an additional 18 bets that STOY
didn’t have and found…1 winner from these 18 bets. Amazing really and
considering STOZ was potentially the best Misc System coming into the season,
it definitely won’t be the best system leaving the season.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">System 21-31 did pretty well to pretty much
break-even and looking at the results since inception on this system, they
aren’t bad. A 7% ROI over 1,714 bets so far and the system is on course for
it’s 4<sup>th</sup> solid season in a row. Given the mess other systems have
made of this season, this would be a pretty good achievement.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall, a poor month for these systems and in
particular, the 3 SGM systems are really struggling this season. STOZ in
particular is having a nightmare this season after a really poor season last
season. Whatever has changed in the last 2 seasons has really impacted this
system as much as any other I think. Shame really as a few seasons back, it
looked like one of the best systems! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Draw
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for the systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Ai6ki0dRGn8/VSZg1lp2b5I/AAAAAAAAEHM/WsjRmLVNZGQ/s1600/10.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Ai6ki0dRGn8/VSZg1lp2b5I/AAAAAAAAEHM/WsjRmLVNZGQ/s1600/10.PNG" height="268" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A loss of 106.8pts from 304 bets. Easily the
worst month these systems have had since they went live and nothing during
backtesting was anywhere near as bad as this for a single month.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The filtering was a disaster again on these
systems and system D2-D7 hit a perfect (or not so perfect!) 0 winners from 15
bets in the month. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Difficult to explain what has happened apart
from blame it on the underlying results. The draw strike rate is the lowest it
has been since I started betting on footie and therefore, I would expect the
Draw systems to make a loss over the season when the strike rate is so low but
maybe not to this extent.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The same issue is apparent here about the wrong
teams winning. Here, it is the wrong teams drawing. Many of the draws are
coming when I’ve backed the home or away team and therefore, they are not appearing
as draw bets as often as I’d like. The games where I’ve backed the Away and
Draw are tending to be won by the Home team and therefore, it’s just a
nightmare scenario where I can’t catch the right games.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">One midweek saw a plethora of draws in most
leagues and I barely had a draw bet! I then had a ton of draws and there was
barely a draw in any of the leagues!
Just want this season over and hopefully these systems can regroup and
come back stronger next season.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Euro
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for the systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0Zu_CeHGmV8/VSZg5sttl9I/AAAAAAAAEHU/NVfrK0Mp1cY/s1600/11.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0Zu_CeHGmV8/VSZg5sttl9I/AAAAAAAAEHU/NVfrK0Mp1cY/s1600/11.PNG" height="188" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A loss of 9.4pts from 333 bets. Starting to
sound like a broken record but the draw was a nuisance on these systems during
the month of March. Of course, the games where the draw was a nuisance is games
where I didn’t have an Euro Draw bet as we’ll see shortly!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall, not too despondent and although it’s a
losing month, given the season these systems have had so far, I can handle a
losing month.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Euro
Draw Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for the systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-WPzgtpReoPA/VSZg8wkPT3I/AAAAAAAAEHc/9rfZ2Z7gLCg/s1600/12.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-WPzgtpReoPA/VSZg8wkPT3I/AAAAAAAAEHc/9rfZ2Z7gLCg/s1600/12.PNG" height="382" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Another massive loss of 88.5pts from 353 bets.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I’m actually in two minds about these systems
now. One piece of work I’m going to do in the Summer is calculate the returns
from laying the draw (I’ll look at ditching the H/A or staking 0.5pts on H/A)
in these systems this season. Of course, it could just be the case that these
systems have suffered from enormous variance and we’ll see a correction next
season but I’m obviously not going to have these systems in the service next
season in their present guise. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">If I decide I wanted another shot at building
Euro Draw systems (highly unlikely given the underlying results I calculated
after I built these draw systems!) but if I did, I would obviously bin these
systems and start again from scratch. In reality, I don’t think I do want
another go at following Draw systems (lost a small fortune this season between
the UK bets and Euro bets) and therefore, I might actually consider laying the
Euro Draws next season in their current guise.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Anyway, we’ll keep this one for the Summer and
I’ve no idea what the results look like by doing this but given I’ve never seen
such bad ratings and systems before, I would think these could be pretty decent
lay the draw systems to follow! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall then, a nightmare month for the systems
and a combined loss of 354.5pts from 2,544 bets. Draws alone account for 195pts
of this loss and therefore, anyone not backing the draw this season won’t be
having quite the same level of nightmare as others. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Well, that sums up March. In a really tough season,
we’ve just had the worst month the systems have ever had which only makes this
season even tougher. I keep telling myself that if this is as bad as it gets,
then we’re OK but unfortunately, things keep deteriorating and therefore, we
may not be anywhere near the bottom of the P&L yet. If not, this could
potentially get very painful for all of us following but at the end of the day,
I don’t believe the ratings have suddenly lost any edge they had overnight.
Yes, it’s clear the systems are nowhere near as profitable as they were a few
seasons back but nothing indicated that they were about to fall off a cliff. It
has to be variance and hopefully, this will correct itself over the next 6
weeks or so. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Let’s see what April brings…….</span>Graeme Dandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-72898064666156030512015-03-27T16:05:00.000+00:002015-03-27T16:05:24.393+00:00March so far.....<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Going to keep this post short and just update
the results for March so far. It has been a disaster of a month so far (as bad
as I’ve seen) and it’s difficult to find the time to sit down and write some
thoughts about everything as I’ve not had the time. I keep wanting to get
involved in some Twitter debates over the last few weeks but I can’t even get
time to read all the tweets, never mind give a point of view or hold a
conversation. Some of the threads moved so quickly but I’ll try to find some
time to jot down my thoughts on the blog next week, I've a few days off work. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">As for March so far, not a lot has went right.
I’m on course for my 2<sup>nd</sup> worst ever betting month in terms of the monetary amount lost but in terms of pts lost in my betting portfolio, I’ve
already exceeded the worst historical month I’ve had before now. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">It’s amazing how quickly things change and from
a season high and all time betting high on 17<sup>th</sup> Jan, I’ve lost over
a 5 figure sum which for someone with my stakes, is a helluva drawdown! Like
everyone else following the systems, I’m starting to question what I’m doing
and I think there has to be a massive doubt about whether or not I’ll continue
with the football betting & the service next season. Being honest,
continuing with the football betting isn’t that big an issue and this season
has probably been my most relaxing in terms of actually following the bets. I
have a pretty nice process set up, I’m doing pretty well compared to the
advised odds (c.+1.5%) and I’m probably following my betting returns closer
than I have ever done. Shame I'm counting up losses more often than not but at least I know what I'm losing! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">My issue is the service but as I’ve
discussed before, they do go hand in hand to a degree. The chances of me always
having the discipline to do the football ratings without the service isn’t very
high and I know for a fact that if I didn’t have the service responsibility, I
would have stopped following the football before now as quite simply, I don’t
have the time for it. The fact I can manufacture the time required by staying
up late and working myself into the ground is down to the service but given the
last 6 months or so and how difficult I have found combining the football
ratings with my career, I would have definitely stopped following I suspect. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Anyway, it’s easy to sit here off the back of a
substantial drawdown and say I’m stopping the service next season but it would
be a knee-jerk reaction. I’m going to get through to the end of the season,
look at things fresh and then decide whether or not I stop the service. If I
continue with the football betting, I’ll need to do the ratings anyway, so I
need to see if I can fit a service around this or not. I’ll share more thoughts
over the next few months as I need to get writing again. When I’m losing money
like this, the blog is a great help to get some thoughts down and even if no
one replies or reads them, I always feel better for getting it off my chest I
find! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for March so far:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Est
Systems</span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></u></b></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-9AdndK9CJtY/VRV-kvYgYiI/AAAAAAAAEFE/VrN30_yiUM8/s1600/1.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-9AdndK9CJtY/VRV-kvYgYiI/AAAAAAAAEFE/VrN30_yiUM8/s1600/1.PNG" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A loss of 44pts from 505 bets. Both algorithms
losing badly, the filtering making things worse and the combined systems losing
too as a result.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">New
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4X7CP7r_aPA/VRV-o_6uQyI/AAAAAAAAEFM/Ssh7HHCwfJo/s1600/2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-4X7CP7r_aPA/VRV-o_6uQyI/AAAAAAAAEFM/Ssh7HHCwfJo/s1600/2.PNG" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A loss of 91.17pts from 571 bets. System 31 has
had a shocker of a month (down 23pts) and system 41 has had the usual month (a
losing one!). Overall, a horrible loss so far with the weekend to come! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Misc
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-EQ3rt-ordVU/VRV-sYJ04jI/AAAAAAAAEFU/RJI7hNxQ-kk/s1600/3.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-EQ3rt-ordVU/VRV-sYJ04jI/AAAAAAAAEFU/RJI7hNxQ-kk/s1600/3.PNG" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A loss of 44.68pts from 338 bets. In line with
system 31, STOZ has had a disaster of a month and a loss of 16pts. All 6
systems are losing this month, so no real comfort to take from these systems at
the moment either.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Draw
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-e1pyWI263xU/VRV-wKa4SyI/AAAAAAAAEFc/i0Cb0U67Wxc/s1600/4.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-e1pyWI263xU/VRV-wKa4SyI/AAAAAAAAEFc/i0Cb0U67Wxc/s1600/4.PNG" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A loss of 110.43pts from 256 bets. To say these
Draw systems have dropped off a cliff is not an understatement and the last 600
system bets or so have been terrible!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Euro
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-V1B0odVYbf8/VRV-z5XAnBI/AAAAAAAAEFk/q-SQj94oFRY/s1600/5.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-V1B0odVYbf8/VRV-z5XAnBI/AAAAAAAAEFk/q-SQj94oFRY/s1600/5.PNG" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A loss of 9.4pts from 333 bets. Not too bad
considering the losses on the other systems this month! :)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Euro
Draw Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-5U_Le0u0fCc/VRV-3kTYmgI/AAAAAAAAEFs/RUR2vMD5g8g/s1600/6.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-5U_Le0u0fCc/VRV-3kTYmgI/AAAAAAAAEFs/RUR2vMD5g8g/s1600/6.PNG" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A loss of 88.5pts from 353 bets. Same old story
with these systems. Might well be the best lay the draw systems I’ve ever seen!
Not much good if backing the draw though.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall, a loss of 388.18pts so far this month
from 2,356 bets. If tomorrow goes badly, could smash the record for the worst month ever by a long way!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I’ve no doubt given the numerous discussions on
Twitter recently, the conclusion for this post should really be that the
systems are regressing to the mean loss of 2% and I’ve somehow fluked the first
4.6 seasons of profits but not sure I buy into this myself. I’ve no doubt
people get lucky for periods of time but I don’t believe it can stem from
Sep-10 to Feb-15 and then my luck ran out completely. No one can be that
unlucky to lose so much in a single month anyway, so it has to be variance! ;)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Here’s the graph of the system results since
inception in Sep-10 to the end of February 2015. I’ll share the graph at the
end of March in the March review, it won’t be pretty…..</span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-BsOA5C9uCGI/VRV_GXpEyHI/AAAAAAAAEF0/2apn0Hn4uoc/s1600/7.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-BsOA5C9uCGI/VRV_GXpEyHI/AAAAAAAAEF0/2apn0Hn4uoc/s1600/7.PNG" height="263" width="400" /></a></div>
Graeme Dandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-76216455298661032492015-03-13T16:22:00.000+00:002015-03-13T16:22:00.622+00:00February 2015 Monthly Review<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Well, I’ve managed to go a whole 6 weeks
without a results update on the blog. The last post was a review of January and
now we’re in the middle of March. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Anyone following the service will be aware of
why this is but for those not seeing my emails, the truth is that I have found
it incredibly difficult this season to dedicate as much time to the football
project as previously. Becoming a Dad has had a massive impact on my spare time
as you would imagine and combined with my career continuing to take up more and
more of my time, it’s been nearly impossible to get time to do blog posts etc. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I just about have enough time to send bets out,
update results & ratings and place some of my bets and monitor my own
betting results. Unfortunately, trying to do any value adds like blog posts or
one-off pieces of analysis, it has been impossible. Being honest, I don’t see
this changing in the near future and I expect TFA as a service will look a
little different next year. I did say that last year but my issue is so many
people use the systems and ratings in various ways, it’s hard to reduce the
workload without impacting someone! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Anyway, enough of my moaning. The is going to
be a very, very quick overview of the performance of the systems in February. I
won’t call it a review, I’m not really reviewing anything!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Given we’re halfway through March and things
haven’t really improved, it has been a tough 6 or 7 weeks I’m afraid but that’s
part of the game as I know only too well!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Est
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results of both of the rating
algorithms and the 11 systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-uAubftH0wDo/VQMNatV8tPI/AAAAAAAAEDs/92_gHLoA7-0/s1600/1.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-uAubftH0wDo/VQMNatV8tPI/AAAAAAAAEDs/92_gHLoA7-0/s1600/1.PNG" height="124" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-X8vXQz47fpU/VQMNdwlM9yI/AAAAAAAAED0/hFQQSUp2P3Q/s1600/2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-X8vXQz47fpU/VQMNdwlM9yI/AAAAAAAAED0/hFQQSUp2P3Q/s1600/2.PNG" height="130" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-42fx7nmJBt0/VQMNg6TSigI/AAAAAAAAED8/Oe57mEZYoXQ/s1600/3.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-42fx7nmJBt0/VQMNg6TSigI/AAAAAAAAED8/Oe57mEZYoXQ/s1600/3.PNG" height="134" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">An amazing performance from algorithm 1 with a
profit of 17.1pts from 88 bets. As has been the case for most of the seasons,
all of the profits have come in the lower value band. Algorithm 2 made a small
loss of 0.2pts and again, it was the lower value band bets that have kept this
algorithm afloat.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">In total, the 11 systems made a loss of 20.2pts
from 399 bets. Disappointing considering the algorithm results weren’t too bad this
month.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">As has been the case for the last few seasons
(wow, seems a long time!), the filtering of the algorithms just doesn’t work.
System 7 made a loss even though system 6 had an amazing month. Sort of sums up
the filtering I’m afraid.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">New
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results of both of the rating
algortihms and the 11 systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-SJp4Tmc0dzA/VQMNvYl2d2I/AAAAAAAAEEE/aCq3vb8vIPk/s1600/4.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-SJp4Tmc0dzA/VQMNvYl2d2I/AAAAAAAAEEE/aCq3vb8vIPk/s1600/4.PNG" height="128" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-I5zvje-vR6g/VQMNxx8WWsI/AAAAAAAAEEM/iKtSYWAI0fo/s1600/5.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-I5zvje-vR6g/VQMNxx8WWsI/AAAAAAAAEEM/iKtSYWAI0fo/s1600/5.PNG" height="124" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-xAZkmiL9V4M/VQMN0pEarQI/AAAAAAAAEEU/0lTEWAzxnh0/s1600/6.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-xAZkmiL9V4M/VQMN0pEarQI/AAAAAAAAEEU/0lTEWAzxnh0/s1600/6.PNG" height="156" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A loss on algorithm 3, a loss on algorithm 4
and a loss of 23.1pts from 513 bets from the 11 systems. Algorithm 4 somehow
made 22.6pts profit from 19 low value Away bets! These traditionally aren’t the
best bets, so sort of sums up the way this season has gone! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">System 31-41 managed to make a profit even
though both algorithms had a poor month. Apart from this, no other highlights.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Misc
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for the 6 systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2-b0IMqFpCg/VQMN4F4Jd2I/AAAAAAAAEEc/VWwK37-VANA/s1600/7.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-2-b0IMqFpCg/VQMN4F4Jd2I/AAAAAAAAEEc/VWwK37-VANA/s1600/7.PNG" height="104" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A loss of 7.1pts from the 316 bets.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Draw
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for the 11 systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-8A6dj5TK7NE/VQMN8hSPsQI/AAAAAAAAEEk/uNa32diBC_4/s1600/8.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-8A6dj5TK7NE/VQMN8hSPsQI/AAAAAAAAEEk/uNa32diBC_4/s1600/8.PNG" height="308" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A loss of 26.4pts from 337 bets. Another very
tough month for these systems and the season has been disappointing considering
the results last season. I hope that in future, we look back on this season’s
very low draw strike rate and say these UK Draw systems did well to only have a
small loss!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Euro
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for the 11 systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-SxcExGR_TFU/VQMN_7GkiYI/AAAAAAAAEEs/U8OBj6C2VHo/s1600/9.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-SxcExGR_TFU/VQMN_7GkiYI/AAAAAAAAEEs/U8OBj6C2VHo/s1600/9.PNG" height="184" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A profit of 89.3pts from 331 bets. All 11
systems made a decent profit again, so difficult to have too many complaints.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Euro
Draw Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for the 11 systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-fCOjDhRCQIs/VQMON25FqjI/AAAAAAAAEE0/LRI5RdDUjWg/s1600/10.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-fCOjDhRCQIs/VQMON25FqjI/AAAAAAAAEE0/LRI5RdDUjWg/s1600/10.PNG" height="382" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A loss of 66.6pts from 315 bets.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">It’s becoming a bit of race between the Euro
Systems and the Euro Draw Systems. The Euro systems are doing an amazing job at
trying to cover the losses on the Euro Draw systems! Would be some achievement to
cover these losses fully I suspect but so far, they’re doing a good job. I keep
expecting the Euro Draw systems to have an odd week where results go well but
not happened too often all season. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Overall, a loss of 54.1pts from 2,211 bets across the month. Felt like a much worse month unless you are top heavy on Euro system bets! </span>Graeme Dandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-10641825686929459682015-02-10T14:23:00.001+00:002015-02-10T14:23:32.375+00:00Monthly Review for January 2015<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">(I
wrote most of the below before the nightmare that happened at the weekend. This
basically means we have had two nightmare weekends in a row, one to finish off
January and one to start February. I’ll save my comments about February until I
update the first set of results for February!)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">If
it wasn’t for the mess that happened last weekend, I’m sure the tone of this
monthly review would have been a little different. Being honest, I shouldn’t let
it bother me too much and as I’ve said a few times before with monthly reviews,
it tends to be the end of the month that dictates the tone of the posts rather
than the overall results in the month. Human nature I suspect to dwell on the
loss in the last week rather than the previous 3 weeks of profit but anyway,
this post won’t be as jovial as it should really have been considering the
P&L results this month.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Looking
at the season results to date, it’s still not anywhere near as good as the
previous seasons although of course, we still have 4 months left to hopefully
get back to something like the profitability levels in previous seasons. There
are lots green shoots within the overall P&L and the results of the Euro
systems for example have been above expectations (my expectations anyway!) but
the UK Draw and Euro Draw systems have struggled from day one this season. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I
think it feels to me like we’re now on an even keel and hopefully we can push
on for the remainder of the season. Saying that, given how tough this
season has been generally, wouldn’t be surprised if this doesn’t happen at all
and we just end up having a rubbish season. Hope not though!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Est
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s
the results from algorithm 1:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ILYAy3P_edQ/VNoTYVKSZZI/AAAAAAAAEBc/gpc01qQt6yk/s1600/1.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ILYAy3P_edQ/VNoTYVKSZZI/AAAAAAAAEBc/gpc01qQt6yk/s1600/1.PNG" height="102" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">In
terms of points won, it’s a record for algorithm 1 in a single month although
the ROI isn’t as high as we’ve seen before for a single month. It’s nice to see
all value bands make a profit and I guess ideally, I would have liked more bets
in the higher value bands but not sure I can complain too much. Bets with 5%+
value made a profit of 13.6pts from 32 bets and this is about as you can get I
think. A common theme this season has been the unexpected performance of the
low value bets in some months and we can see it again here on this algorithm. A
great performance from these bets and shows that there are potentially some
profitable low value bets on the algorithm and the key has always been to try
to identify them amongst the other bets that are low value and probably not the
best bets.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s
the split by Home and Away:<o:p></o:p></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-eAPpza7YuqU/VNoTgXc1qFI/AAAAAAAAEBs/Iq-zQYh0yd4/s1600/3.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-eAPpza7YuqU/VNoTgXc1qFI/AAAAAAAAEBs/Iq-zQYh0yd4/s1600/3.PNG" height="118" width="640" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Not
happened too often this season but Aways are where the majority of the profit
has been made on this algorithm and again, it’s hard to be too critical given
the returns.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s
the results from algorithm 2:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-EqITa88SCIc/VNoTdCgqT8I/AAAAAAAAEBk/1COsnIV3eLU/s1600/2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-EqITa88SCIc/VNoTdCgqT8I/AAAAAAAAEBk/1COsnIV3eLU/s1600/2.PNG" height="96" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">In
terms of points won in the month, it’s the 2</span><sup style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">nd</sup><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> best month ever
(behind March-12 with 25.1pts profit). Value bands were nowhere near as pretty
though with the vast majority of bets in the low value band. The value ratings
haven’t worked well all season on algorithm 2 and we’re seeing it again here. A
phenomenal performance to hit a 45.3% ROI from 45 bets although as always, I
wish more of these bets were in the higher value bands.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s
the split by Home and Away:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-tt8_A1hnt_w/VNoTjngDCKI/AAAAAAAAEB0/fJMF1l3hxZo/s1600/4.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-tt8_A1hnt_w/VNoTjngDCKI/AAAAAAAAEB0/fJMF1l3hxZo/s1600/4.PNG" height="118" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Homes
again dominated the P&L on this algorithm and I think there is definitely
something to consider for those using value ratings when looking at Homes and
Aways. A 5% Away bet could be a team priced at 8.00 when I think they should be
priced at 7.62 and a 5% Home bet could be a team priced at 1.80 when I think
they should be priced at 1.715. Both 5% value bets as defined by my ratings but
I suspect long-term, we’ll make much more money backing the short priced team
here than the long priced team. We already know my ratings find value in
outsiders a little too easily and my ratings find it much harder to find value
at the front end of the market. Therefore, I think we need to take this into
account in our staking.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I
think when applying value filters, we need to do something to look at
Homes/Aways and possibly, it may be the case that Home low value bets are much
more worthwhile than Away value bets but I’ll do the analysis at season end to
see if this is true or not. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">So,
with both algorithms having phenomenal months, I’d be hoping that the Est
Systems have capitalised on this and had a good month also. Here’s the results
from the 11 systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xWIS7DNVVKE/VNoTneKBAHI/AAAAAAAAEB8/QG-KtDrkhg4/s1600/5.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xWIS7DNVVKE/VNoTneKBAHI/AAAAAAAAEB8/QG-KtDrkhg4/s1600/5.PNG" height="176" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">The
highest number of points won by the systems in a single month since they went
live which is something I never thought I’d say again if I’m honest. Also the 4</span><sup style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">th</sup><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">
highest ROI in any month and therefore, a dream start to 2015 for these systems
after a poor 2014. To put the month in perspective, this is more pts profit
than the systems managed in 2014 or 2013 over the course of the year!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">If
I was being picky, I would say it’s disappointing that system 22 had poorer
month than the other systems and this of course impacted systems 6-22,7-22 and
8-22. However, given the troubles these systems have had over the last couple
of years, I’m just pleased they still had the chance to pull this sort of month
out of the bag in total and therefore, not too concerned by the lower profits
on a couple of systems.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall,
a great start to 2015 for these systems with a profit of 140.5pts from 367
bets. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><u>New
Systems</u></b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s
the results for algorithm 3:</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-yFA0HNEFNnA/VNoTsB_-YRI/AAAAAAAAECE/tNcLSCaBIN4/s1600/6.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-yFA0HNEFNnA/VNoTsB_-YRI/AAAAAAAAECE/tNcLSCaBIN4/s1600/6.PNG" height="134" width="640" /></a></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><o:p></o:p></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A
small loss on Homes, offset by the profits on Aways. Given the results on the
first 2 algorithms, maybe a little disappointing that the best algorithm I have
didn’t have a better month but I think algorithm 3 tends to be very steady
generally whereas the other algorithms do tend to be a bit more boom and bust. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Over
half of the profits have come in the lowest value band and similar to the first
2 algorithms, the profits are not really coming from where I would ideally want
them in terms of the value ratings. Again though, I’m not going to give my
ratings a hard time about making a profit and any profit is welcome at the
moment.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s
the results for algorithm 4:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-R1S99XZSncg/VNoTv-29mKI/AAAAAAAAECM/5qTVcm0u8-o/s1600/7.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-R1S99XZSncg/VNoTv-29mKI/AAAAAAAAECM/5qTVcm0u8-o/s1600/7.PNG" height="140" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A
massive 19.2pts profit for low value Aways which more than makes up all of the
profits on this algorithm. Coming into the season, low value bets were loss
making but similar comments to above, the profits are not really coming in the
right places on any of the algorithms this month for those using value ratings
for either staking or filtering purposes.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall,
2 profitable algorithms and therefore, we would expect the systems to have had
a profitable month.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s
the results from the 11 New Systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-UofTAMsc_2c/VNoTzI0k-EI/AAAAAAAAECU/yM3FIpwD6A0/s1600/8.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-UofTAMsc_2c/VNoTzI0k-EI/AAAAAAAAECU/yM3FIpwD6A0/s1600/8.PNG" height="138" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">10
of the 11 systems have been profitable and an overall ROI of 18.2% is not to be
sniffed at.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">System
32 had an amazing month which is pretty rare for this system but on the other
hand, system 42 had a poor month and made a loss. Long-term, system 42 is
better than 32, so as always, things are never straightforward and it depends
on what systems you follow. System 31-42 is a popular system and made 1.9pts
profit from 36 bets. System 32-41 is a less popular system and made a profit of
16.2pts from 29 bets. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall,
a profit of 84.9pts from 467 bets. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s
the results for the Misc Systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-q6wCMCZL6Tw/VNoT2YPcSrI/AAAAAAAAECc/LnqL9fNLGc4/s1600/9.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-q6wCMCZL6Tw/VNoT2YPcSrI/AAAAAAAAECc/LnqL9fNLGc4/s1600/9.PNG" height="102" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">All
6 systems were profitable but the 3 SGM systems struggled yet again. I can’t
honestly remember the last time these systems put together a good run and I’m
not too sure what these add to the portfolio of TFA systems at the moment.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The
2 systems which have performed above expectations this season are systems 21-31
and 6-21-31 and these have been steady systems now. Looking through the historical
seasons, these systems do achieve 5%+ ROI each season with around an average
ROC of 50% each season. Pretty steady returns I think and both systems are
underplayed amongst the subscriber base I suspect. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">System
6-32 is a system that hasn’t really done anything for a long time, mainly as a
result of system 32 not being very profitable but it’s nice to see the system
make a nice return this month to give the overall P&L figures a boost.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall,
a profit of 67.5pts from 267 bets. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s
the results for the UK Draw Systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-oK9UbD_o59Q/VNoT6aknlCI/AAAAAAAAECk/HPiFwQ653vA/s1600/10.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-oK9UbD_o59Q/VNoT6aknlCI/AAAAAAAAECk/HPiFwQ653vA/s1600/10.PNG" height="268" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A
mixed bag really and only 2 of the 11 systems have been profitable. These
systems have not got going all season and although they started the month well,
it didn’t end well and it’s another loss.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I’ve
said this before but I just think these systems haven’t had the rub of the
green this season. Of course, the more bets the systems have and the longer
this run goes without any profit, the more doubts start to creep in about the
returns last season but as always, we’ll know more when we get more data. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall,
a loss of 33.3pts from 182 bets. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s
the results for the Euro Systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-SSCtFjllx9M/VNoT-WxCVYI/AAAAAAAAECs/3tR-zeLpcCA/s1600/11.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-SSCtFjllx9M/VNoT-WxCVYI/AAAAAAAAECs/3tR-zeLpcCA/s1600/11.PNG" height="188" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A
bit of a mixed bag for these systems again and 9 of the 11 systems were
profitable but being honest, only 6 systems had any meaningful profit.
Unfortunately, these systems started the month amazingly well but about 45pts
were lost on the last day of the month! Very frustrating if I’m honest but as
always, I’ve no control over when the profits occur, as long as they occur in
the long-run.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall,
a profit of 69pts from 318 bets.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Lastly,
here’s the results for the Euro Draw Systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zHJYn6CRVcE/VNoUBvlRNpI/AAAAAAAAEC0/9ydEDVVHGtc/s1600/12.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-zHJYn6CRVcE/VNoUBvlRNpI/AAAAAAAAEC0/9ydEDVVHGtc/s1600/12.PNG" height="238" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Well,
here’s a surprise, a profit of 36.3pts and all 11 systems being profitable. A
long way to go to get back to break-even but small steps and all that.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall,
a profit of 36.3pts from 308 bets. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Well,
in total then, the month saw a profit of 431.5pts from 1,909 bets. An ROI of
22.6%.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">The
biggest monthly profit the systems have ever achieved in a single month! </span>Graeme Dandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-18167465630074560592015-02-05T13:42:00.002+00:002015-02-05T13:42:23.295+00:00Results for last weekend to close off January<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Before I get on with looking at the January
monthly review, a quick update on the last set of results for January. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Unfortunately, my comments in the previous
posts about the likelihood of a loss occurring did in fact come true again. We
all know there is no correlation between what happens with our previous results
and what happens next but all I know is that after 5 years of playing this
game, when my own P&L reaches a new peak, I tend to suffer a correction.
It’s like a game of snakes and ladders and anytime I hit a big ladder, I always
hit a snake soon after. I’ve sort of got used to it now but it still annoys me
when it happens!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">As always, we need to look longer term and although
it wasn’t a great weekend, the month wasn’t too bad and the season looks a bit
better than it did at the end of December.
Will pick this up in the monthly review post.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results up to the end of January
(I’ll keep Sunday and Monday’s results until the first results update for
February).<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Est
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-5-xUDaJjBhU/VNNysOi8J5I/AAAAAAAAEAk/_xfKd31ASbg/s1600/Est%2BSystems.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-5-xUDaJjBhU/VNNysOi8J5I/AAAAAAAAEAk/_xfKd31ASbg/s1600/Est%2BSystems.PNG" height="332" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A loss of 13.18pts from 56 bets. System 21 took
a massive hit here with only 4 winners from 18 bets.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">New
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-7SLQUTPOt5g/VNNyyn9HfQI/AAAAAAAAEAs/EYAkV2ux2ms/s1600/New%2BSystems.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-7SLQUTPOt5g/VNNyyn9HfQI/AAAAAAAAEAs/EYAkV2ux2ms/s1600/New%2BSystems.PNG" height="376" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A loss of 22.7pts from 77 bets. System 31 took
a bit hit on Saturday with only 3 winners from 21 bets.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Misc
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-8hfzy7K-x34/VNNy8RGQ12I/AAAAAAAAEA0/5HowJqTxGcQ/s1600/Misc%2BSystems.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-8hfzy7K-x34/VNNy8RGQ12I/AAAAAAAAEA0/5HowJqTxGcQ/s1600/Misc%2BSystems.PNG" height="234" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Only 7 winners from 45 system bets and a loss
of 26.69pts. 0 from 9 on system 21-31 and 0 from 8 on system 6-21-31. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Draw
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8dYfEpYgmno/VNNy_USP9QI/AAAAAAAAEA8/LDclPsak-L4/s1600/Draw%2BSystems.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-8dYfEpYgmno/VNNy_USP9QI/AAAAAAAAEA8/LDclPsak-L4/s1600/Draw%2BSystems.PNG" height="376" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Only 7 winners from 50 system bets here and a
loss of 26.35pts. Only 1 winner from 9 on algorithm 1 unfortunately. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Euro
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Dz_4mKXxq1M/VNNzFJvffWI/AAAAAAAAEBE/j3U2lPcLbr8/s1600/Euro%2BSystems.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Dz_4mKXxq1M/VNNzFJvffWI/AAAAAAAAEBE/j3U2lPcLbr8/s1600/Euro%2BSystems.PNG" height="328" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Only 8 winners from 63 bets and a loss of
45.1pts. 1 winner from 10 on the first algorithm and 1 winner from 11 on the
second algorithm.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Euro
Draw Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-iCFk-1MdXvA/VNNzIBOHDRI/AAAAAAAAEBM/Ur9fCaXlZDE/s1600/Euro%2BDraw%2BSystems.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-iCFk-1MdXvA/VNNzIBOHDRI/AAAAAAAAEBM/Ur9fCaXlZDE/s1600/Euro%2BDraw%2BSystems.PNG" height="358" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Only 9 winners from 39 bets and a loss of
7.6pts.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">6 sets of systems, covering 11 leagues, Homes,
Aways & Draws and all 6 sets had a nightmare on Saturday. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I saw plenty of tweets with pictures of
P&Ls for January where the P&L fell off a cliff on Saturday and seeing
the results above, you can see why. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall, a loss of 141.62pt from 330 bets. An
ROI of -42.9%! OUCH!!!!!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Well, that brings January to a close. Next post
in a day or so will cover the monthly review.</span>Graeme Dandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-39095073847051926052015-01-27T16:25:00.000+00:002015-01-28T11:34:52.951+00:00Recent Results Update<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I signed off the last results update by saying
that I would be amazed if the systems managed to retain the profits they
achieved in the first half of the month. Well, the systems have even more of a
buffer now as they have had another good week or so and if the month finished
today, it would be the best month the systems and service has had in the 5
seasons to date so far. Not the best month the UK systems have had in isolation
but given how good the Euro systems have done as well, it makes it the best
month ever (touch wood it stays that way!). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">For me personally, this is currently my 3<sup>rd</sup>
best month since I started online betting in terms of £ won and 2<sup>nd</sup>
best month ever in terms of ROI. Still got a weekend left to come which will
mean another swing up or down I’m sure but to say I needed a month like this
after the start of the season is no understatement. It wasn’t the fact I was
losing money (I wasn’t), it was the fact I couldn’t get any momentum going at
all and treading water was becoming the norm. As strange as it sounds, treading
water isn’t great for the mental side of things for me as it feels like I’m
doing a helluva lot of work for nothing. At least when I’m losing money hand
over fist, it feels like it’s part of the game. Breaking even over a long
period is quite boring! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I remember saying this a few times earlier this
season but I thought my ratings and systems were doing well to not lose money
given the underlying results and short-term trends for the first few months.
It’s always difficult at times to say stuff like this as some people think I’m
just papering over the cracks and the edge I had is gone and we’re all about to
sink but I never thought this. I was confident we just needed to keep doing
what we do and we’d turn things around (always have done before!) and it’s nice
it has happened this month. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Still a long way to go this season and of
course, given how quickly things have turned, they could also turn back and a
massive losing run could be around the corner (nothing ever surprises me now!)
but I think it’s always easier losing money you’ve already won. This season has
been the same as last season whereby it felt like we were never in front until
after January and therefore, it does make the season seem tougher than it
should be.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for the last week or so. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Est
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b><br />
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></u></b>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-pIX5ZDl-as0/VMjJLKLPtII/AAAAAAAAEAU/lk5Yaji0i2U/s1600/Est%2BSystems.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-pIX5ZDl-as0/VMjJLKLPtII/AAAAAAAAEAU/lk5Yaji0i2U/s1600/Est%2BSystems.PNG" height="640" width="464" /></a></div>
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A profit of 36.76pts from 139 bets. Pleasing to
see system 6-21 have a good update as it has lagged behind system 6 and 21 all
season but has started to finally make some headway this month (as have a lot
of systems!)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">New
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bbjQAl4IWbo/VMe61giS--I/AAAAAAAAD_c/XdZBF5AXiZc/s1600/New%2BSystems.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-bbjQAl4IWbo/VMe61giS--I/AAAAAAAAD_c/XdZBF5AXiZc/s1600/New%2BSystems.PNG" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A profit of 7.99pts from 165 bets. A disappointing
update I think but given the profits already this month, I’ll never moan too
about a small profit!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Misc
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-AlUKwEkz7_s/VMe7iek4RJI/AAAAAAAAD_k/20q54JR_0ug/s1600/Misc%2BSystems.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-AlUKwEkz7_s/VMe7iek4RJI/AAAAAAAAD_k/20q54JR_0ug/s1600/Misc%2BSystems.PNG" height="640" width="580" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A profit of 14.24pts from 101 bets.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Same story as most of the season where 21-31
and 6-21-31 have been doing well but the other 4 systems have struggled. Again,
I’ll take the profit though and move on.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Draw
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ZY8vohLh0tA/VMe7l7ent4I/AAAAAAAAD_s/xdV3y-dAsmc/s1600/Draw%2BSystems.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ZY8vohLh0tA/VMe7l7ent4I/AAAAAAAAD_s/xdV3y-dAsmc/s1600/Draw%2BSystems.PNG" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A profit of 8.84pts from 68 bets. Slow going as
it has been most of the season and they’ve not really had any momentum going at
all this season but after an amazing season last season, maybe we’re seeing a
bit of a correction. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Euro
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Uj0_BpDbJ-Y/VMe7p9aSt8I/AAAAAAAAD_0/2_cCyRSME_k/s1600/Euro%2BSystems.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Uj0_BpDbJ-Y/VMe7p9aSt8I/AAAAAAAAD_0/2_cCyRSME_k/s1600/Euro%2BSystems.PNG" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A profit of 16.8pts from 125 bets. Not a
massive profit but it continues to build on the returns from earlier this
month.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Euro
Draw Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wi0Qr7BuKTY/VMe7tA9BFKI/AAAAAAAAD_8/RY7N7W0Sex0/s1600/Euro%2BDraw%2BSystems.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wi0Qr7BuKTY/VMe7tA9BFKI/AAAAAAAAD_8/RY7N7W0Sex0/s1600/Euro%2BDraw%2BSystems.PNG" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A profit of 13.6pts from 172 bets. Not the
greatest of profits but continues to slowly clawback earlier losses this
season.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall, a profit of 98.23pts from 770. An ROI
of 12.76%. All 6 sets of systems made a profit again! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">After a 400pt profit in the first half of the
month, to follow up with another big profit is a little bit of a surprise. I
can’t recall too many months like this. I’ll say it again (hopefully works like
last time!) but the next update is likely to be a losing update! </span>Graeme Dandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-44317439850480671762015-01-14T17:09:00.001+00:002015-01-14T17:09:47.929+00:00January results so far.....<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The first results update of 2015 and I’m
pleased to say it has been a pretty good start to the year. That’s probably
an understatement really and I reckon this is maybe the best results update
I’ve ever posted on the blog. Having been doing this for a number of years now,
it’s always good when something out of the blue occurs and given this is
usually record losses, it’s nice to be posting a record profit.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Anyone who read the monthly review for December
will have seen the fact that the ratings weren’t doing too much wrong, the
issue was that they were finding too many draws and as I commented on in the
post, if you hit a winner rather than a draw, at the average odds I’m playing
at, it makes a massive difference to the P&L.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The first two weeks of 2015 has witnessed the ratings firing in
winners left, right and centre and although it can’t last, it always feels good
to see the ratings making some spectacular profits in a short space of time. As
I always say, it’s easy to make money at this game when things are going well
and the true test is how well you do when things are going badly and how much
you lose during these spells. I feel like my ratings have fought really hard so
far this season to not dig themselves in too big a hole during the tough
periods and therefore, we’re seeing the benefit of this now we’ve had a good
spell. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The only thing I can be sure of is the next
downturn isn’t too far away as every time my own P&L hits a new high, I
tend to lose money soon after. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Anyway, here’s the results so far for January.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Est
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ul8lXvFasYQ/VLaiGx4Xu2I/AAAAAAAAD-c/PjFkanryYls/s1600/Est%2BSystems.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ul8lXvFasYQ/VLaiGx4Xu2I/AAAAAAAAD-c/PjFkanryYls/s1600/Est%2BSystems.PNG" height="640" width="362" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A profit of 116.88pts from 172 bets. Quite
amazing returns and to hit 91 winners from 172 bets at an average odds of 3.23
takes some doing. Positive variance I would say!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">New
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ozIuV5yY05I/VLaiMAIw1YI/AAAAAAAAD-k/oHjwI99ARRg/s1600/New%2BSystems.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ozIuV5yY05I/VLaiMAIw1YI/AAAAAAAAD-k/oHjwI99ARRg/s1600/New%2BSystems.PNG" height="640" width="322" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A profit of 99.59pts from 225 bets. More
positive variance but given how bad last month was for these systems, it is
just getting the losses back!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Misc
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-lyvQzq9dstM/VLaiRTTXTFI/AAAAAAAAD-s/09Dnfcx4_L4/s1600/Misc%2BSystems.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-lyvQzq9dstM/VLaiRTTXTFI/AAAAAAAAD-s/09Dnfcx4_L4/s1600/Misc%2BSystems.PNG" height="640" width="580" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A profit of 79.97pts from 121 bets.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Draw
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1XNKAP4u5_A/VLaiVFyNWJI/AAAAAAAAD-0/S-Wv93GEDG0/s1600/Draw%2BSystems.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-1XNKAP4u5_A/VLaiVFyNWJI/AAAAAAAAD-0/S-Wv93GEDG0/s1600/Draw%2BSystems.PNG" height="640" width="284" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A loss of 15.74pts from 64 bets. I think these
systems aren’t getting any breaks at all. So many games are finishing 1-0 at
the moment and therefore, they are very close to hitting winners. I did a quick
check and I think there is a higher % of games under 2.5 goals this season
compared to last season on these systems and yet, the strike rate for draws is
3% points lower. Probably missing 5 or 6 winners which would appear on multiple
systems but it’s thin lines and so on.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Euro
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-mZvz3xy_s4Y/VLaiZcw0byI/AAAAAAAAD-8/Lq-Fjf26Opk/s1600/Euro%2BSystems.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-mZvz3xy_s4Y/VLaiZcw0byI/AAAAAAAAD-8/Lq-Fjf26Opk/s1600/Euro%2BSystems.PNG" height="640" width="316" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A profit of 104.1pts from 130 bets. Another
amazing return from these systems this season after a poor December. We’ll know
more about these Euro ratings at season end but possibly, these systems may
have an edge which would be great news for the long-term.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Euro
Draw Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Dly3OSmWhIc/VLaieI-nFHI/AAAAAAAAD_E/FNWdMp-63dg/s1600/Euro%2BDraw%2BSystems.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Dly3OSmWhIc/VLaieI-nFHI/AAAAAAAAD_E/FNWdMp-63dg/s1600/Euro%2BDraw%2BSystems.PNG" height="640" width="364" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A profit 30.3pts from 97 bets. A profit beats a
loss I guess but a long way back to break-even for these systems this season,
never mind trying to make a profit!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall, a profit of 415.1pts from 809 bets.
Had worse results updates on the blog in the last 5 years!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Let’s see what the rest of the month brings. I
really hope I’m proven wrong but I will be amazed if the profit at the end of
the month is this high. It would smash the record for the best ever month I
think although it’s not something I really look at for all systems combined. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Graeme Dandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-75044665819136347862015-01-07T20:41:00.000+00:002015-01-07T20:41:25.805+00:00Monthly Review of December 2014<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Going
to keep this monthly review very short. I usually say ‘short’ and write a few
thousand words but being honest, I can’t be bothered discussing a month where not
a lot went right for the systems. The underlying results were very good
generally and therefore, I should have made a small fortune in
December. The fact the systems didn’t even make a profit is disappointing but as always, there are possibly some extenuating circumstances for the results.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I’ll
quickly touch on it but the Draw strike rate was very low for the month of
December (22.8%) for the underlying results in the UK and therefore, the
ratings and systems should have been able to capitalise on this. Unfortunately,
they didn’t manage to capitalise and some systems have been impacted massively
from Draws. You get these little runs where Draws impact my results but this
month is maybe one of the worst months I’ve ever seen if I’m honest.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Below
is a table which shows the Draw strike rate for the month of December for all
28 UK systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-v7WpeqTCN8k/VK2XeyOmCgI/AAAAAAAAD88/MfVh7YjlTuI/s1600/1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-v7WpeqTCN8k/VK2XeyOmCgI/AAAAAAAAD88/MfVh7YjlTuI/s1600/1.png" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Sometimes,
I don’t need words to explain. Given the average odds we’re playing at here,
each of these Draws loses the systems 1pt when it would have been a 2.5pt
profit on average. A swing of 3.5pts on each game on average. Multiply this up
by a lot of systems and a lot of bets appearing on a lot of systems and you get
the jist of the month for the UK systems. A massive loss that wasn’t far away
from a massive profit. The best AH returns I’ve ever posted for a month but not
much good for me and everyone else playing outright betting I’m afraid.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">If
we take the UK Draw systems, with such a low strike rate for Draws generally this month,
I would expect these systems to suffer a fairly large loss. The fact they didn’t
(they’ll post a small profit) says a lot about these systems and in a season
that has been pretty tough to find UK Draws in the lower leagues, my Draw
systems are continuing to fight hard to make a profit. Not going to be a
vintage season like last season for the UK Draw systems but I’d take any profit
given the Underlying results so far for Draws.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">This
only leaves the Euro leagues. The December strike rate for Draws was an amazing
32.1%. Therefore, I would expect my Euro systems to really struggle and again,
the fact they are going to post a break-even month later is testament to these
Euro systems. Might have taken me two attempts but I think the Euro ratings may
actually have a little bit of an edge which is pleasing after the disaster in
the first season with these ratings. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">So,
with a strike rate of 32.1% in the month for all games if backing Draws, surely
to God my Euro Draw systems would have posted a massive profit and recovered
all of the season’s losses? Well, no. They’ve posted another mammoth loss and I
think this could be the worst set of ratings and systems I’ve ever seen. I
thought my first attempt at Euro ratings would never be beaten but these Draw
ratings are taking the pis* now with how bad they are. Not sure I see any hope and the only question
for next season is whether I have a second attempt at Euro Draw systems or if I
just bin the idea completely. At the moment, I don’t think I can face ever
betting on Euro Draws again but I’ll see how the next few months go. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">This
just about sums up my feelings about the systems this month and constitutes the
review of the month at a high level. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I
also have lots of other annoyances at the moment if I’m honest. I’m fed up with
quoting Pinnacle prices when they are below market average for lower league
games and ultimately, it cost the systems over 150pts in the last week of December
alone. The liquidity for Boxing Day was appalling when I was releasing the bets
and therefore, given the fact I’ve tied myself into quoting Pinny prices only
for the past 2 seasons, I was forced to miss bets that were terrible odds with
Pinny (other tipsters had released before me, causing the price to crash at
Pinny but much better odds were generally available with UK bookmakers and even other Asian bookmakers). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">It
was as clear as night follows day that the teams would rebound up to
kick-off and low and behold, the rebounds happened and the teams won. The fact I
was on a couple of other teams (were false value prices as we ended up being on
steamers that I didn’t think would win!) in the same games just rubbed salt
into the already gaping wounds and to say I felt awful after the Boxing Day
massacre is an understatement. In total, I missed 6 bets and of course, all 6
won. Sod’s Law some would say but I would say it’s stupidity on my part
to be quoting false Pinnacle prices that are clearly too low to be used for
running my value ratings. This needs sorted.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Putting
all this together, with the first 3 months of the season being pretty rubbish before
December and you start to get an insight into where my mind was at on the 26<sup>th</sup>
of December. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">What
has happened since? Well, the big system bets have stopped drawing and started
winning, the ratings have hit a bit of form generally and I’ve had a good few
Euro winners too (not Euro Draws, they just keep losing money!). Given it’s only the
7<sup>th</sup> of January, it’s amazing how quickly things can turn and
therefore, this sort of explains why I’m not about to spend a few hours
lambasting my systems for a rubbish December. It happened, we were unlucky with
hitting too many draws, we move on. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s
the results for all the different sets of systems in December.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Est Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for algorithms 1 & 2:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-9P25iDrtTr4/VK2YWo04LhI/AAAAAAAAD9E/MqrWsZy7fXI/s1600/2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-9P25iDrtTr4/VK2YWo04LhI/AAAAAAAAD9E/MqrWsZy7fXI/s1600/2.png" height="130" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"></span></o:p></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-VmhBCTkgNnU/VK2Ya2t0YQI/AAAAAAAAD9M/0NONkDqm4d0/s1600/3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-VmhBCTkgNnU/VK2Ya2t0YQI/AAAAAAAAD9M/0NONkDqm4d0/s1600/3.png" height="140" width="640" /></a></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Losses on both algorithms and the only plus point (it’s
hardly a positive!) is that the losses were with the lower value bets. Anyone
filtering the bets by value would have missed some of the carnage this month.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for the 11 systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-F1NVDuts9Ng/VK2Yg-ySPSI/AAAAAAAAD9U/OLoVFLzBrh0/s1600/4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-F1NVDuts9Ng/VK2Yg-ySPSI/AAAAAAAAD9U/OLoVFLzBrh0/s1600/4.png" height="146" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">I think all you can say is WOW when you look at the AH
returns. The highest AH0.50 monthly returns since the systems went live 5
seasons ago and when you look at the Draw strike rates above, you can see why
this has happened.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The massive positive is that both the rating algorithms
were rubbish, system 7 was rubbish too and yet, these 3 systems account for
nearly all of the loss. Amazing that some systems managed a profit given how
bad the ratings were this month and when you think these systems which managed
a profit were also heavily impacted by Draws this month, they have been very
unlucky.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I could pick any system but I will take system 7-21 as an
example. 29 bets this month. 9 winners which resulted in a loss of 6.2pts. What happened with the other 20 bets?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Well, these 20 bets included 14 Draws and 6 losers. 14
Draws ffs. The odds for these bets were 4.30, 4.07, 3.93, 3.91, 3.50, 3.38,
3.32, 3.27, 3.16, 2.98, 2.90, 2.83, 2.71, 2.22. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The same pattern is repeated across most of these
combined systems and quite simply, December was maybe one of the most frustrating
months my systems and ratings have ever had. Given the first 3 months were 3 of
the toughest months they’ve had, it’s very frustrating that this has happened
off the back of the results earlier this season. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Anyway, the Est Systems lost 27.9pts from 468 games. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">New Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for algorithms 3 & 4:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-G1G4wy8KVRo/VK2Ys8cnp4I/AAAAAAAAD9c/jtXwl5fcP2I/s1600/5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-G1G4wy8KVRo/VK2Ys8cnp4I/AAAAAAAAD9c/jtXwl5fcP2I/s1600/5.png" height="140" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"></span></o:p></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MA5q60TaHhs/VK2Yx8Cx48I/AAAAAAAAD9k/URM0YQB9KoI/s1600/6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MA5q60TaHhs/VK2Yx8Cx48I/AAAAAAAAD9k/URM0YQB9KoI/s1600/6.png" height="136" width="640" /></a></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Amazingly, algorithm 3 managed to make a profit (I do
love this system!) and as you can see, it somehow managed to avoid the carnage on
the other algorithms of hitting too many Draws. I don’t think it’s any
coincidence that if you look back at the first picture in this post, which
system had the lowest draw strike rate this month by a long way? Yip, system 31.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Algorithm 4 lost again (4<sup>th</sup> month in a row)
and I don’t appear able to stop the slide on this algorithm. I did a fair bit
of work on it in the Summer but it hasn’t had the desired effect and the
algorithm doesn’t have any edge and is possibly worse than last season! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">One point I should make is that the low value bets caused
the loss on algorithm 4 and also reduced the profits on algorithm 3. I know it’s
not really a positive but given so many following are filtering bets by value,
I think it shows these value ratings are at least doing their job to a degree.
The ratings haven’t been as good this season as previous seasons but we’re only
halfway through the season.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for the New Systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bWZFGK5Dgdk/VK2Y3s7Do6I/AAAAAAAAD9s/yExWpeNv_hk/s1600/7.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-bWZFGK5Dgdk/VK2Y3s7Do6I/AAAAAAAAD9s/yExWpeNv_hk/s1600/7.png" height="130" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">At face-value, it looks like a nightmare with a loss of
84pts from 507 bets but the Draw has been a killer. System 31-41 had a disaster
and only hit 16 winners from 66 bets. What happened to the other 50 bets?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Well, 25 of them were draws! Not going to quote all the odds for the bets
on this system that were draws but it included odds such as 6.62, 6.33, 4.77,
4.67 and so on. Basically, the system was a couple of winners away from
break-even and a handful of winners away from an amazing month. Closer than a
loss of 84pts looks.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Having a month in a season where the Draw is a pest is to
be expected but to happen after the first few months of the season the systems
have had is just irritating really. Things can only get better!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Misc Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results from the 6 systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-pJeY6u7rOcM/VK2Y9wpt3xI/AAAAAAAAD90/VloPTDvvS1U/s1600/Pic%2B8.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-pJeY6u7rOcM/VK2Y9wpt3xI/AAAAAAAAD90/VloPTDvvS1U/s1600/Pic%2B8.png" height="100" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Ouch!</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Same story
really with the AH returns being much better due to the impact of the
Draws.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Nothing more to add.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A loss of 63.5pts from 290 bets.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Draw Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results from the 11 systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-HBisSQO3DN4/VK2ZE6y-yzI/AAAAAAAAD98/UgDvOX2PpnI/s1600/Pic%2B9.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-HBisSQO3DN4/VK2ZE6y-yzI/AAAAAAAAD98/UgDvOX2PpnI/s1600/Pic%2B9.png" height="270" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A strange set of results really with the first Draw
algorithm losing 3.3pts from 55 bets and the 2</span><sup style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">nd</sup><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> draw algorithm
making a profit of 12.3pts from 67 bets.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">This is the 2<sup>nd</sup> best performance in a month by
the second algorithm since the ratings went live. Given it has happened in one
of the toughest months for Draws since the ratings went live, it’s a very
strange result.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I think overall, it’s an achievement for these systems to
make a profit this month if I’m honest and therefore, I have to be happy. I
keep waiting for it getting a little easier for Draw bettors in the UK leagues
but so far, it hasn’t happened yet! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall, a profit of 10.9pts from 323 bets.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Euro Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-NJjBe_3M31s/VK2ZNos5hhI/AAAAAAAAD-E/brD6VY8vtF0/s1600/10.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-NJjBe_3M31s/VK2ZNos5hhI/AAAAAAAAD-E/brD6VY8vtF0/s1600/10.png" height="182" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A loss of 0.1pts from 272 bets. Same story as with the UK
systems and the AH returns were better as a result of too many Draws.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Euro Draw Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-St4brsztwYU/VK2ZgCPJ85I/AAAAAAAAD-M/IRzTAtTnSzE/s1600/11.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-St4brsztwYU/VK2ZgCPJ85I/AAAAAAAAD-M/IRzTAtTnSzE/s1600/11.png" height="238" width="400" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A loss of 76.9pts from 291 bets. Given the underlying
strike rate was 31% in the month, to only hit a strike rate of 21.3% takes some
doing I’m afraid. They keep missing the winners and backing the losers, not
really a recipe for a successful set of systems!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall, a loss of 241.5pts from 2,151 bets. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Never quoted this before on a monthly review but the
returns from AH0.5 betting on all bets this month was 163.7pts! If there was
ever a way to illustrate the impact of the draw on the monthly returns, this is it…..<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<br /></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Roll on 2015!</span><br />
<div class="MsoNoSpacing">
<o:p></o:p></div>
Graeme Dandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-51176368669050796502014-12-23T11:48:00.000+00:002014-12-23T11:48:10.829+00:00December Results So Far......<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I’ve been working flat out to try to bring the
results up to date before the Festive period kicks off. It’s a manic few weeks
for the UK bets, so there are a lot of bets about to be placed over the next
two weeks. It has been another very frustrating month so far and we’re now
pretty much 4 months into the season and it’s been the toughest start to the
season my ratings and systems have had. The weekend past is probably one of the
most frustrating days the systems have had for a long time and off the back of
a tough start to the season, we can just do without it I think. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The weekend past was littered with draws and
late goals and the combination of both these things turned an OK weekend for my
ratings into a disaster in terms of the P&L. Aways this season have never
got going at all and my ratings just can’t string a decent period of results
together this season. We have the odd good weekend, followed by a poor spell
and then the odd good day. When you add up the P&L, it’s not pretty
unfortunately and with nearly 40% of the season gone, achieving a profit across
all systems combined this season is starting to look quite a challenge. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Anyway, the good news is that we have 60% of
the season left and it doesn’t take too much for the season to turn around. A
few good sets of results and the P&L will look a lot different but on the
other hand, there isn’t a lot of room to manoeuvre if results don’t pick up. Not
sure we can continue on like this indefinitely and I really need my ratings to
start making some profits rather than treading water!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results up to 22<sup>nd</sup>
December:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Est
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GJ6UUcIECFc/VJlVsbh7ADI/AAAAAAAAD7s/Onpd5LSuKdU/s1600/Est%2BSystems.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GJ6UUcIECFc/VJlVsbh7ADI/AAAAAAAAD7s/Onpd5LSuKdU/s1600/Est%2BSystems.PNG" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A very skewed set of results and as I said in
the introduction, the results are littered with draws. A loss of 21.96pts from
261 bets. However, the AH returns were scary and not what we want to see.
AH0.50 made a profit of 59.71pts which is an unreal number. The average odds
were 1.60 for these bets, so to make a profit of 22.8% at these average odds is
a bit silly. Draws have been killing the returns and all it takes is a few of
these draws to have been wins and the loss would have been a profit.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">New
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-67yMSXnkQfo/VJlVxjPrKPI/AAAAAAAAD70/VXlUyVWx3QQ/s1600/New%2BSystems.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-67yMSXnkQfo/VJlVxjPrKPI/AAAAAAAAD70/VXlUyVWx3QQ/s1600/New%2BSystems.PNG" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Another skewed set of results but unfortunately,
the losses are horrendous here. A loss of 85.79pts from 298 bets. AH returns
were much better but even AH0.50 was only a profit of 11.31pts. Still 97pts
better than backing outright though!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A real struggle for these systems and the
damage was done very early on in the month. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Misc
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-f9rsFvYsNBE/VJlV4AUio0I/AAAAAAAAD78/revQi88tjx8/s1600/Misc%2BSystems.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-f9rsFvYsNBE/VJlV4AUio0I/AAAAAAAAD78/revQi88tjx8/s1600/Misc%2BSystems.PNG" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Same story again with AH returns being much
better. A loss of 31.11pts from 150 bets. AH0.50 made a profit of 19.34pts.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Draw
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3_DDj99nJEI/VJlV9rboYKI/AAAAAAAAD8E/zWsURbdDdtI/s1600/Draw%2BSystems.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3_DDj99nJEI/VJlV9rboYKI/AAAAAAAAD8E/zWsURbdDdtI/s1600/Draw%2BSystems.PNG" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Given my comments above about the draw being a
major pest so far this month, these results won’t be too surprising. A profit
of 53.29pts from 181 bets. Only issue here is that I don’t have enough UK Draw
systems to cover the losses on the outright betting systems!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">These Draw systems started the season very
slowly (as they did in their first season) but now they’ve got a decent sample
of bets behind them, the results have again been decent. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I suspect if they can have another second half
of the season like the first half, these systems will quickly propel themselves
up the TFA pecking order in terms of results, especially since most other
systems are on the slide!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Euro
Systems <o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-RCoYCD1cYQo/VJlWCPUL_EI/AAAAAAAAD8M/htf6zr7eQgs/s1600/Euro%2BSystems.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-RCoYCD1cYQo/VJlWCPUL_EI/AAAAAAAAD8M/htf6zr7eQgs/s1600/Euro%2BSystems.PNG" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Annoyingly, the same trend as the UK systems
with the AH returns being better. Overall though, a loss of 0.1pts from 272
bets.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Euro
Draw Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></u></b></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2lv110v-dpE/VJlWIZg5qTI/AAAAAAAAD8U/St4oR7_8lNg/s1600/Euro%2BDraw%2BSystems.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-2lv110v-dpE/VJlWIZg5qTI/AAAAAAAAD8U/St4oR7_8lNg/s1600/Euro%2BDraw%2BSystems.PNG" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Not going to moan too much as I covered it on a
recent blog post but the results are dismal for these systems. The draw strike
rate has picked up in some of the leagues but these systems are not hitting the winners and the strike
rate is amazingly low.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I’ve never been a fan of laying bets but
another second half of the season like this and we may have the best lay the
draw systems I’ve ever seen! You couldn’t really aim to be hitting a 22% strike
rate for draws if you tried in these Euro leagues and therefore, the results
are abysmal. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A loss of 76.9pts from 291 bets. Rubbish.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall, a horrible update I’m afraid and the
systems have dug themselves into yet another hole this season. I think they’ve
been in 3 or 4 holes now but this is another one to clawback from. A loss of 162.57pts from 1,453 bets. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">It’s going to be a losing month (again!) unless
the systems recover these losses over the rest of the month. Continues like it
has been going recently and we’ll have a record losing month possibly. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Let’s see what happens…….</span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Graeme Dandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-84310110921108079022014-12-16T15:12:00.001+00:002014-12-16T15:12:03.667+00:00Euro Draws Update<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I thought it was worth doing a quick post
looking at the performance of the Euro Draws. In a way, I think one of the best
things I did over the Summer wasn’t actually having a go at producing some Euro
Draw systems (no, I think I can safely say that was a very bad idea!) but the
fact I invested the time to look at the underlying results for the Euro
leagues.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I’m not sure why but before I had looked at the
Euro underlying results in depth, I had it in my head that Euro Draws was maybe
an OK place to be. I’d seen a few services follow Cassini’s lead and start
looking at Euro Draws and given the fact I really buy into the idea that few
punters back draws and they are more interested in backing a team to win (same
idea as why no one backs 0-0 when watching a game as they want to see goals!),
I thought Euro Draws was going to be a profitable place to play generally. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">You can re-read my post from the Summer <a href="http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/euro-underlying-results.html" target="_blank"><b><span style="color: blue;">here</span></b></a> but I’m going to quote some
comments I made as it was a little prophetic I think.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span style="color: red; font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Considering I’m about to embark on new Euro Draw systems, let’s just
say my confidence is a little lower having seen these underlying results!<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span style="color: red; font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The Draws have lost 6.4% over the last 4 seasons, last season lost
8.5% and the 2010/11 season lost 10.5%. Not exactly an easy place to make
money!<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span style="color: red; font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">12 winning months from 37 for Draw bets shows the difficulties
playing in this space. Only 2 winning months in the last 12 shows how difficult
it has been recently in these leagues if backing Draws.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span style="color: red; font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">In terms of the Euro Draw systems, I think the above has opened my
eyes to how tough this place is to make money. Being honest, having seen
Cassini’s results over the last two seasons, I realised it wasn’t exactly an
easy place to make a profit but I’m not sure I’ve seen too many tougher groups
of data to try to find a betting angle over the last few years.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<i><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="color: red;">Unless conditions get a bit easier for Draw backers (higher strike
rate), I would struggle to believe that my ratings could make a profit next season.
It’s not impossible (my UK Draw systems did it last season) but experience
tells me that when the underlying results are tough, making a profit from a
very high number of bets is just as tough. The odd system with lower turnover
can do well but the higher turnover systems may struggle if the losses are as
bad as 3 of the last 4 seasons.<o:p></o:p></span></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I had a few emails from subscribers after I
wrote this piece and the general consensus was that after reading my thoughts,
they were going to give the Euro draws a miss this season. Of course, a few
others decided that they would plough on anyway and given the fact they were
playing lower stakes, surely these systems couldn’t do too much damage to their
overall TFA P&L……<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Well, I’ve had a few emails over the last few
weeks saying how great a decision it was by some to miss these bets out from
their portfolio after my post but I’ve also had two emails from subscribers in
the past week who took the plunge with these systems at lower stakes and they
are now licking their wounds a little.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I guess the first point I’d make is that
although I judge TFA systems as an overall package and every bet carries 1pt in
the proofed results, it’s fair to say that this isn’t really representative of
the service as a whole. If anyone is placing 1pt on a TFA Euro Draw and 1pt on
a UK Draw, they aren’t playing the game correctly I think. If you have zero
live results and no evidence that a system or rating algorithm may be
profitable, you shouldn’t really be placing too much emphasis on it. Therefore,
although I feel bad for anyone following the Euro Draw systems this season at lower
stakes, the reason they are following at lower stakes is due to the additional
risk of these systems and therefore, even if they lose badly, the decision to
follow the systems was down to them and them alone.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Anyway, caveats aside, my conscience is fairly
clear given the comments I made before the season started and the fact the
comments have been pretty accurate shows I did at least warn about what may
happen.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">So, after the weekend past (15<sup>th</sup>
December), here’s the results for all 11 systems so far this season:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-7oQPoKFOWD4/VJBLbxTZhuI/AAAAAAAAD7c/c8X5ATcUnv4/s1600/Euro%2BDraws.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-7oQPoKFOWD4/VJBLbxTZhuI/AAAAAAAAD7c/c8X5ATcUnv4/s1600/Euro%2BDraws.png" height="312" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">In total, the 11 systems have lost 180pt from
651 bets. They have only found 137 winners, so a strike rate of 21%. The
overall Draw strike rate for all Euro games I’ve rated this season after the
weekend stands at 24.7%.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I guess the first point to make is that with a
strike rate of 24.7% for the underlying results, I would expect my systems to
be loss making. At average odds of 3.40, I need to be hitting 29.4% Draws to be
break-even. Hence, at this sort of strike rate for the underlying results, I
would expect to have lost c. 16% so far this season. This equates to 104pts!
Therefore, my systems are clearly doing much worse than average and worse than
expected, even with the underlying results.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I said before the season that if the season was
as tough as 3 of the last 4, the higher turnover systems may struggle. The
systems with the highest turnover have all lost over 30pts each and therefore,
this assumption was correct. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I guess the question that we all want answered
is what happens next? Well, looking at the betting banks I suggested for each
system (bear in mind I had no live results to know what the expected edge or
lack of edge may be!), there is a very good chance that the first ever TFA
system to lose a betting bank will occur. System DE1-DE6 has now lost 33pts of
a 45pt bank (bank looks woefully inadequate based on the turnover) and
therefore, by setting an inappropriate bank at the outset, I expect this system
will effectively go broke.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">There are a handful of other systems that may
lose their suggested betting bank too and therefore, I think it’s odds on that
one of the systems will go broke. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Having never been in this situation before, I’m
not sure what it means for the Euro Draws. Clearly, if the Euro Draw strike
rate is running at this sort of level, my systems are going to make a loss and
personally, I’m not sure there is much I can do about it. You can’t have
ratings that throw up Draws in 40%+ games and expect to make a profit if the
Draw strike rate runs at the level it is running at now. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">With hindsight, having seen what I saw with the
Underlying results, having Euro Draw systems that bet in 40% of the games,
knowing that it’s a very tough place to make a profit is probably not the most
sensible thing in the world. However, the Euro Draw systems were built before I
had looked at the Underlying results and therefore, I wouldn’t have had such
high turnover systems if I had known how difficult it could be. Then again, if my ratings had an edge in
these leagues, the more the merrier when it comes to bet number and therefore,
if I had gone down a very selective approach and made a small loss, I’d have
been wondering what would happened if I had more bets…the truth is, a bigger
loss. :(<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I think if anyone is following the Euro Draws
and have based their betting banks on the banks I suggested, I would suggest
they reduce stakes if they feel the losses on the Euro Draws are impacting
their overall portfolio too much. I personally follow the Euro Draw systems
(E2-E6 and E2-E7) and I’m down 28pts at the moment. 1pt for me on Euro Draws is
worth 3pts for UK Draws but even with this sort of staking plan, the losses on
Euro Draws has wiped out my profits on the UK Draws and more unfortunately.
With hindsight, I was too aggressive with my staking on the Euro Draws given
the turnover on these systems and although I adjusted stakes based on the fact
they had no results, I probably underestimated the sizable turnover the systems
have. As always, I live and learn!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">There is nothing I can do about the fact the
systems are running so poorly at the moment. There is nothing fundamentally
wrong with the bets thrown up. I’m pretty close to the Euro leagues this season
due to the fact the Euro outright bets are doing great and so often, the Euro
systems are on a big priced bet, the Euro Draws have the same game and then the
big priced team wins! That weekend past, how PSG didn’t equalise or how Ath
Madrid lost I’ve no idea but the outright ratings got the big priced winners as
the Draw systems were left licking their wounds. The same could be said for the
number of 1-0 games or the number of games with late goals which swing a Draw
from a winner to a loser. However, this is gambling and ultimately, it happens
to everyone!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">If these systems do recover from these losses
and reach break-even or a small loss (miles away from this at the moment!),
then we could reassess the banks in the Summer and decide whether or not these
systems should remain part of the service going forward. I have the option of
doing what I did with the Euro systems and rebuilding them from scratch for
next season or I could just take the decision that it’s too difficult a place
to make money (sort of there now in my own head!) and why bother even trying to
get something to work? At the moment, I’m definitely wondering why I’m even
bothering continuing to back these bets given there are much easier ways to
make money with other systems but I’ll continue until I feel the losses have
reached a level that I feel like I’m not comfortable with and I’ll probably
stop. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Interestingly, I stopped following the Euro
systems myself in their first season just before an upturn after 3-4 months of
poor results and it’s funny how things like this leave a psychological mark! I
was playing small stakes on these systems too although the losses were nowhere
near as bad as I’m suffering with these Draw systems. I’ll personally give it a
few more weeks and then take stock of the losses and the impact it’s having on
my P&L this season. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I expect those who took a chance on the Euro
Draws this season are the same ones who took a chance on the UK Draws last
season and coined it in! I bottled the UK draws last season and jumped on board
very late and still managed to make a nice profit. If I had just showed the same
little bit of patience and discipline again this season with the new Euro Draw
systems…….</span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Graeme Dandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-47152426947981335912014-12-10T14:15:00.000+00:002014-12-10T14:15:02.188+00:00Season review do far<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I don’t tend to write too many season review
posts apart from season end as quite simply, I don’t think any time period
shorter than a season is too meaningful. Yes, I do write monthly reviews and
yes, I even go as far as detailing all results on this blog for every day my
ratings and systems have bets but anyone with half a brain knows that what happens
on a day to day basis when it comes to gambling is fairly random. If it wasn’t
random and I knew when I was more likely to win or lose on any day, I’d build
this into my models and my staking plan and increase my profitability. :)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I think any time I have done season review
posts it’s always off the back of poor runs of results and most times, it’s to
have a period of reflection for myself more than anyone else. Anyone who reads
my blog posts will know this blog isn’t an advert for the service and is simply
a record of all the system results over the season. I suspect some people only
read the monthly reviews and if you only read these, I’m not sure you get the
full flavour of what we are seeing in a season. I think this season maybe falls
into this category and therefore, after 3 poor months, I think it’s better to
stand back and take stock of the situation.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">There’s not going to be a lot of depth in this
post and it’s going to be a high level overview. I think I sometimes get too
lost looking at details of how each rating algorithm and each system is doing
but at an overall level, people are generally following the ratings or
following a combination of systems or a mixture of the two. Therefore, I’ll try
to look at the results in this way in this post.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results so far this season for each
algorithm,:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3xfKCkkQJcI/VIhUiQoGB7I/AAAAAAAAD6k/osOQOkOj5Bk/s1600/1.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-3xfKCkkQJcI/VIhUiQoGB7I/AAAAAAAAD6k/osOQOkOj5Bk/s1600/1.PNG" height="154" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Coming into the season, algorithm 3 was the
best algorithm, algorithm 4 was the worst algorithm and algorithm 2 just shaded
algorithm 1. Therefore, I think these results aren’t too far out from what I
would expect in terms of how the systems are doing relative to one another.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Algorithm 3 has made a 4.5% profit from 298
bets so far and although it’s not a vintage season, it’s hard to expect the
algorithm to do that well when Aways have been performing so poorly. Algorithm
4 has made a loss of 7% from 252 bets and this is disappointing, even taking
into account the difficulties this season. Algorithm 1 has a profit of 1.3% and
algorithm 2 has a loss of 0.1%. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I think in a more normal and probably an ideal
season, algorithm 3 would be sitting at c. 8%, algorithm 1 and 2 at 5% and
algorithm 4 at 3%. Hence, all 4 algorithms are substantially down on where they
should be I think based on historical experience. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I think this season, algorithm 3 is the most
followed algorithm, followed by 2 and 1. Not too many will be following
algorithm 4 but of course, quite a few are following unique bets and therefore,
a unique bet on algorithm 4 may be pulling down the returns a little based on
these results but I could be wrong. I
know Steve (Daily 25) is following algorithm 4 this season as I figured that it
was a potential way to follow TFA bets with less odds movements but I didn’t
expect the algorithm to do as badly as this! Even though it was the worst algorithm,
it has been profitable up until now, so it’s disappointing to see it making a
loss so far this season.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall, not the best results over the first 3
months for the algorithms but it’s not a disaster. All 4 algorithms favour Away
bets heavily and therefore, given the carnage on Away bets, I don’t the results
are too bad apart from algorithm 4.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">This season, quite a number of people are using
the value ratings to filter the bets to try to improve the profitability of the
ratings and systems. I have always been wary of this myself but after seeing
fairly conclusive results last season, I decided to base my staking plan in
part of the value ratings so far this season. Unfortunately, it has been a
disaster so far and the following tables will help me (and you!) understand
why.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Rather than looking at the results by algorithm
and value band, let’s look at the total results for all 4 algorithms together
and by value band:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/--B_d059ND5Q/VIhU_0YNTHI/AAAAAAAAD6s/GlF0qIv_tN0/s1600/2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/--B_d059ND5Q/VIhU_0YNTHI/AAAAAAAAD6s/GlF0qIv_tN0/s1600/2.PNG" height="222" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Straight away, we can see the issue the
algorithms are having this season. Historically, the low value bets were
marginally profitable and on some algorithms, the low value bets were loss
making. So far this season, we are seeing the complete opposite picture. Bets
with less than 5% value have created all the profits and those of you filtering
these out or staking according to value are basically missing all the profits
so far this season.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A profit of 34pts for all bets <5% value, a
loss of 34.8pts on all bets >5%. As you would expect, the average odds
increase as you go up the value bands and with the issues we are having on
Aways this season, it makes sense that the highest value bets are struggling. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I think one part of the value ratings that I
haven’t investigated in enough detail is the Home v Away bias when it comes to
% value. Clearly, with the way value is defined within my ratings, Aways are
always going to have more value on average since it is based on odds and Aways
have a much higher average odds than Homes. This means that those of us
filtering by value or staking by value ultimately end up with more riding on
Away bets. Not really ideal and in a season like this, missing Home bets for
being so called ‘low value’ is a killer for the P&L. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">This is definitely something that needs more
thought this Summer and rather than having a value % based on odds, I maybe
need to relook at how I define value for Homes and Aways. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the same results split by algorithm:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xXBVt4JkkMw/VIhVEzPnVfI/AAAAAAAAD60/TrbnWvJNX_E/s1600/3.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xXBVt4JkkMw/VIhVEzPnVfI/AAAAAAAAD60/TrbnWvJNX_E/s1600/3.PNG" height="640" width="618" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Those following each of the algorithms and
filtering by value can probably relate to the results shown here. Although
algorithm 4 is the disappointing one this season, the carnage could have been
avoided by applying a value filter as suggested during the Summer.
Unfortunately, playing the same way on any of the other algorithms (which was
also a suggestion!) has resulted in losses as the wrong bets have been winning.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">What I would say though is that we are only 3
months into the seasons and there are a helluva lot more historical results
that show that filtering by value isn’t the worst idea in the world. Given the
results this season aren’t in line with the previous seasons, I’m not totally
surprised the value ratings aren’t proving a good indicator but I’m hopeful
this will change over the next few months and hopefully by season end, the
season may look something like previous seasons!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">As I outlined in the introduction, using the
algorithms and/or value ratings are one way to play the bets I provide each
week. The other way is to simply select a portfolio of systems to follow and
follow these systems in a portfolio. It has been discussed to death on the blog
before about the pros and cons of a portfolio approach but I feel that as long
as you aren’t following correlated systems within a portfolio, the portfolio
approach has its benefits. This season, I invested 75% of my betting bank in a
portfolio approach and the other 25% in an approach using the algorithms and
value ratings. So far, the portfolio approach has been much more successful but
both approaches have been disappointing so far to varying degrees. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Going into this season, the record for
profitable systems was:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">2010/11 – 11 live systems, 11 profitable
systems (100%)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">2011/12 – 22 live systems, 21 profitable
systems (95%)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">2012/13 – 41 live systems, 33 profitable
systems (80%)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">2013/14 – 52 live systems, 35 profitable
systems (67%)<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I remember doing the work on this in the Summer
and writing about it on the blog but if you followed a random selection of 4
systems each season in a portfolio, the chances of making a profit were over
90% in each season. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">How does things look this season?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s the results for all systems to the end
of November:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-aLydzbOMg1U/VIhVI_o_mwI/AAAAAAAAD68/hgicUePgyow/s1600/4.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-aLydzbOMg1U/VIhVI_o_mwI/AAAAAAAAD68/hgicUePgyow/s1600/4.PNG" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">There are 61 live systems this season. At the
moment, only 22 of the systems are in profit which is only 36% of the systems.
As you can see, compared to the previous seasons, this is a much lower % and
shows the difficulties the systems are having this season.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Doing the same analysis I did in the Summer,
what are the chances of making a profit if selecting 4 random systems in a
portfolio? Here’s the same sort of table I showed in the Summer:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-p0A9EYHFtUk/VIhVOow3OcI/AAAAAAAAD7E/Kztd1FOZRDk/s1600/5.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-p0A9EYHFtUk/VIhVOow3OcI/AAAAAAAAD7E/Kztd1FOZRDk/s1600/5.PNG" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">As you can see, if following 4 systems this
season in a portfolio, the chances of being in profit at the moment are only
39%. Considering this number was 90%+ for the last 4 seasons, you can see how
poor this season has been to date if using this portfolio method.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">To finish this post off, I thought it was worth
having a quick look at the 10 SBC portfolios I tracked last season and posted
about during the Summer. Admittedly, some people may have used these portfolios
and tweaked systems based on what I wrote in the review of these portfolios in
the Summer but at the very least, this gives us an indication of how these
systems are performing compared to last season. Here’s the results of the 10
portfolios for the season so far:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-JhZK_wT4kaI/VIhVS8wtBxI/AAAAAAAAD7M/FiQcedZLyHk/s1600/6.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-JhZK_wT4kaI/VIhVS8wtBxI/AAAAAAAAD7M/FiQcedZLyHk/s1600/6.PNG" height="178" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">7 of the 10 portfolios are in a marginal profit
situation and 3 of the 10 portfolios are in a marginal loss situation. Simply,
break-even for the 10 portfolios isn’t too far away from the truth.</span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">If anyone has added Euro Draws to their
portfolio (I did!), then it may be slightly worse than break-even but not a
disaster.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Again, similar to what I said above, it
highlights the fact that it hasn’t been the easiest strategy this season but
then again, it’s not been the worst strategy in the world.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall, I think this post provides a quick
overview of a few strategies this season and how they are doing. I think
break-even is a common theme that jumps out to me and if you are break-even
this season, I think you are in line with where I expect. Anyone doing better
than this is outperforming and anyone doing worse is under-performing. I’m sure
there are outliers at both ends of the scale. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">For results to improve, we need to see more
Away winners in the UK, more Euro Draws than we are seeing and we need the
higher value bets to start performing a bit better than so far this season. A
combination of all 3 would turn this season around quickly but I suspect we’ll
see some improvements in some cases and some deterioration in others! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Let’s see what the next 6 months bring……</span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Graeme Dandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6402442722321706627.post-32826655645931073762014-12-05T13:40:00.000+00:002014-12-05T13:40:12.572+00:00November 2014 Monthly Review<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Same
story as last month and I’m going to try to keep this review a little shorter.
I say shorter rather than short as I’ll no doubt still end up writing 5,000
words to summarise another tricky month for my ratings and systems. I will try
to not write too much about the season to date as I plan on following this post
with a post looking at the season to date for the systems. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">We
have seen by the Underlying results post that the UK underlying results were
quite benign this month for the UK and therefore, I would have hoped that we
would see most systems post a profit this month (they haven’t!). Underlying
results at the level I’m looking at them every month only tell part of the
story and as always, if I’m backing Homes when Aways have been winning, I’m
never going to make a profit even though Aways may be profitable!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">One
thing I did notice this month from my own betting was a shocking performance
from the high value bets generally. I stake according to value in one of my two
portfolios of bets and it has been a disaster this month. Again, this probably
indicates the wrong type of bets were winning and I’m sure we’ll see that in
the results review below. Of course, it’s a short-term trend and historically,
missing low value bets hasn’t been a bad idea but in a month where they have
kept the results afloat, it hurts a little to see the low value bets do so
well. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">3<sup>rd</sup>
disappointing month of the season and it’s been a tough season so far. Next
post will look at the results this season to date.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Est
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s
the results of algorithm 1:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-qyvjJcz_pOo/VIG0f0sMKPI/AAAAAAAAD40/Cqw-wVqhd3c/s1600/1.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-qyvjJcz_pOo/VIG0f0sMKPI/AAAAAAAAD40/Cqw-wVqhd3c/s1600/1.PNG" height="123" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A
loss of 1.7pts from 110 bets. An ROI of -1.6%.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A
disappointing month given the underlying results and I would have hoped the
algorithm could make a profit this month. The other issue is the results by
value band and we can see that the low value bets made a profit of 9.4pts
whereas the bets with value of 5%+ made a loss of 11.1pts. Not ideal for those
of us using value in our staking plans or filtering the bets by value but as
always, we can’t read too much into one month’s results.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s
the split by Home and Away:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-p3jLOCu7tqg/VIG0le-EghI/AAAAAAAAD48/5TOeVKqUWG0/s1600/2.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-p3jLOCu7tqg/VIG0le-EghI/AAAAAAAAD48/5TOeVKqUWG0/s1600/2.PNG" height="122" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Similar
story to the previous months with Aways making a massive loss (10.4pts from 64
bets) and Homes making a profit (8.7pts from 46 bets). Homes low value
(<5%) bets is where all the profit is this month with a profit of 13pts from
26 bets.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall,
a disappointing month overall for this algorithm with a small loss and being
honest, anyone following this algorithm would have done worse if they used the
value ratings as an additional filter. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s
the results of algorithm 2:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ECmNSG9u6tc/VIG0op-jfdI/AAAAAAAAD5E/Ku_oFrwJZDA/s1600/3.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ECmNSG9u6tc/VIG0op-jfdI/AAAAAAAAD5E/Ku_oFrwJZDA/s1600/3.PNG" height="150" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">0.6pts
profit from 103 bets. An ROI of 0.6%.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A
disappointing month again for this algorithm and interestingly, the same issue
applies with the value bands. All of the profit is in the lowest value band
(12.8pts from 66 bets) which hurts those using the value bands I suspect.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s
the split by Home and Away:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bLbB1s00Y3s/VIG0sWxVECI/AAAAAAAAD5M/VXlzh1Y64p8/s1600/4.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bLbB1s00Y3s/VIG0sWxVECI/AAAAAAAAD5M/VXlzh1Y64p8/s1600/4.PNG" height="166" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Aways
only lost 1pt and Homes only made 1.6pts. However, both showed the same trend
with the low value bets doing best.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall,
a poor performance from both these algorithms and given the bets that won were
the wrong bets for the value bettors, I think I would expect the Est Systems to
lose money this month. If the ratings aren’t profitable overall and the value
filters aren’t working as well as they should, not sure the filtering of the
ratings by systems is going to improve things too much.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s
the results of all the systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ydGqIMW0wTE/VIG1ACVQD2I/AAAAAAAAD5U/aIvzPLD3eKM/s1600/5.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ydGqIMW0wTE/VIG1ACVQD2I/AAAAAAAAD5U/aIvzPLD3eKM/s1600/5.PNG" height="164" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A
loss of 22.8pts from 476 bets. An ROI of -4.8%.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">It’s
safe to say that the filtering is all over the place (again!). System 22 has
had a nightmare and this has had a knock-on effect onto the higher combined
systems. On the other hand, system 6-21 did quite well I think to turn a profit
given the results on 6 and 21 but 6-22 has had a nightmare as all the system 22
bets were picked up by system 6 which means 6-22 had them all.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">7-22
has had a poor month after a good month last month and overall, the 6 combined
systems lost 10.3pts from 185 bets.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Not
too surprised at the results of the systems this month given the results on the
algorithms. It’s a poor month again for these systems and it’s worrying I
think.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The
Est systems have now been live for 39 months. The first 13 months created a
profit of 409pts from 4,056 bets. An ROI of 10%,<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The
second 13 months created a profit of 382.9pts from 4,349 bets. An ROI of 8.8%.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The
last 13 months have created a loss of 13.1pts from 3,372 bets. An ROI of
-0.38%. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I
guess if the systems didn’t have such a good track record over the first 2
periods, I’m not sure I’d have been as disappointed with them as I have been
over the last 13 months of bets. I’m sure anyone following these systems is
getting frustrated at the lack of progress over the last season and a bit but
then again, the systems aren’t doing too much apart from treading water. I’ve
said this before but I’m not against retiring systems if I feel like the edge
has gone and these systems definitely fall into this category these days. I
will of course give them to season end but if we don’t see an improvement, I
expect systems 7 & 8 will be retired along with the corresponding combined
systems 7-21 thru to 8-22. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">New
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s
the results for algorithm 3:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-gcwDMKr9Bhc/VIG1DqiKJEI/AAAAAAAAD5c/gTYCJVoON-E/s1600/6.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-gcwDMKr9Bhc/VIG1DqiKJEI/AAAAAAAAD5c/gTYCJVoON-E/s1600/6.PNG" height="154" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A
profit of 12.9pts from 118 bets. An ROI of 10.9%. At an overall level, a very
good month for this algorithm and it kick starts the season as it has been like
ploughing through treacle so far this season on this algorithm, with one step
forward, one step back. Rightly or wrongly, I place a lot of emphasis on system
31 as I know it’s the most followed algorithm and therefore, if system 31 can
do well, it papers over the cracks a little on the other algorithms.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Homes
made the majority of the profits which is a common theme this season but I
think it’s disappointing when you look at the split by value band. Similar to
the first 2 algorithms, the profits have been made in the lowest value bands.
21.6pts profit from 55 bets for bets with less than 5% value. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">To
be fair to this algorithm, the lowest value bets have never been loss making
and therefore, those who exclude bets with less than 5% value when they appear
on this algorithm are taking a chance. However, the bets are not as profitable
as the higher value bets and therefore, I can see why people maybe exclude the
low value bets. For months like this though, it really hurts to see so much
profit in the lowest band, knowing that some would filter these bets out.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Those
who follow the value ratings will know that there isn’t much between a bet in
the first two value bands. A bet with 4.99% value is in the low band, a bet
with 5.01% is in the next band. Looking at the results, big losses are in the
5%-10% band. 11pts loss from 37 bets. Frustrating that more of the low value
bets were not in this band.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall,
it’s hard to be critical of an algorithm which makes 10% in a month although as
always, the results haven’t fallen perfectly (the never will!). <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s
the results for algorithm 4:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-iACC_Q8-kGk/VIG1G1uCbeI/AAAAAAAAD5k/CJj6nf70Nj0/s1600/7.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-iACC_Q8-kGk/VIG1G1uCbeI/AAAAAAAAD5k/CJj6nf70Nj0/s1600/7.PNG" height="168" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">The
blacksheep of the TFA family and it’s a 3</span><sup style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">rd</sup><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> losing month in a row. A
loss of 4.1pts from 94 bets. Wrote a little about this a recent blog post but
this algorithm is probably on its last legs. I refreshed it in the Summer and
hoped to improve it but the results just aren’t good enough. Not sure I have
the appetite to start again with proofing a new 4</span><sup style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">th</sup><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> algorithm and I
suspect I may retire the 4</span><sup style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">th</sup><span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;"> algorithm at season end.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Looking
at the results, the profits were in the lowest band and that means over a
month, all 4 algorithms have achieved profits for bets with less than 5% value
and bets over 5% value were badly loss making. Another record I think as I
can’t recall this happening on every algorithm in the same month before. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">With
the results on the algorithms, it’s difficult to know how the systems would do.
System 31 provides a great platform but system 41 will reduce the profits and
then looking at the fact the profits are all on low value bets, I would expect
the filtering didn’t work great this month since the teams I wanted to win
didn’t win!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s
the results of the New Systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CjOqQxTgygo/VIG1KTsmMZI/AAAAAAAAD5s/zHJ3H1MrlPQ/s1600/8.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CjOqQxTgygo/VIG1KTsmMZI/AAAAAAAAD5s/zHJ3H1MrlPQ/s1600/8.PNG" height="150" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A
loss of 16.9pts from 505 bets. An ROI of -3.3%. The filtering on systems 32 and
33 was rubbish and therefore, the only combined systems to make a profit was
system 31-41 and 31-42. 31-42 had a nightmare season last season after a great
first season and as we’ll see in the next blog post, the system has really
bounced back so far this season.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall,
a poor month but given the way the results fell this month, not too surprised. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Misc
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s
the results of the Misc Systems this month:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-37WgtwuoPWA/VIG1OMPPcrI/AAAAAAAAD50/gWJM75Aitqs/s1600/9.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-37WgtwuoPWA/VIG1OMPPcrI/AAAAAAAAD50/gWJM75Aitqs/s1600/9.PNG" height="104" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A
loss of 12.4pts from 331 bets. An ROI of -3.7%. Nice profits on 6-21-31 and
21-31, offset by losses on the other 4 systems. It’s a weird set of results
considering most of the same bets appear on 21-31 as TOX, STOY or STOZ! For
example, STOZ had all of the bets that appeared on 6-21-31. Unfortunately, it
also had an additional 11 bets and didn’t hit any winners! Easier said than done
to achieve that particular feat.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s
the split by Home/Away for these systems:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-63ObwCLdpIc/VIG1R-Qb0GI/AAAAAAAAD58/JwB6bM-rto4/s1600/10.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-63ObwCLdpIc/VIG1R-Qb0GI/AAAAAAAAD58/JwB6bM-rto4/s1600/10.PNG" height="182" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">Another
massive loss on Aways with a loss of 28.5pts from 232 bets. Homes did better as
usual with a profit of 16.1pts from 99 bets.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">It
will be interesting to see the results for the season split Home and Aways on
the systems as Aways must be in about as big a hole as I’ve ever seen in a
season! If I hadn’t refreshed the ratings in the Summer and incorporated more
Home bets, I dread to think what the loss would be this season on all systems!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Anyway,
another losing month for these systems although 6-21-31 and 21-31 are doing
better than the base ratings this season so far. Hopefully won’t end this way! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Draw
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s
the results of the Draw Systems this month:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ashck7r8nmo/VIG1Vy4eAlI/AAAAAAAAD6E/zt_ScYB5T9c/s1600/11.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ashck7r8nmo/VIG1Vy4eAlI/AAAAAAAAD6E/zt_ScYB5T9c/s1600/11.PNG" height="306" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A
profit of 25.9pts from 278 bets. Wow, a profit. Last month was a profit of
25.7pts from 263 bets. That’s about as consistent as these profits have ever
been!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I
had my doubts about these systems after the start to the season in September
and the massive loss but they’ve bounced back well. Still a long way to go to
reach the heights of the previous season but at least they have clawed back the
losses now after two decent months. Hoping to see these systems push on now and
hopefully start to create some sort of meaningful profit this season.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Euro
Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s
the results:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-g92a9MliQvY/VIG1bsEqbWI/AAAAAAAAD6M/FhXBeEko2RA/s1600/12.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-g92a9MliQvY/VIG1bsEqbWI/AAAAAAAAD6M/FhXBeEko2RA/s1600/12.PNG" height="186" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A
loss of 36.9pts from 321 bets. Scratching my head if I’m honest about why these
systems are posting a loss when the underlying results have been so favourable
this month. The ratings haven’t done too badly (still underperformed though)
but the filtering has been a disaster on systems E2 and E3.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">I’m
finding it very hard to understand the European results this season and I’m not
sure my ratings are finding it easy either. The results look fairly random and
although the underlying results point to it being quite easy, I’m not sure it
is. My ratings don’t seem to picking up Dortmund to lose often enough (I keep
having them drawing!) and things like this are throwing up massive profits for
the underlying results but it’s not as easy as it appears to be backing winners
at big odds all the time!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Euro
Draw Systems<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Here’s
the results:</span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ztp4oOBIXGs/VIG1fDK-eHI/AAAAAAAAD6U/32rgtcUqBVg/s1600/13.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ztp4oOBIXGs/VIG1fDK-eHI/AAAAAAAAD6U/32rgtcUqBVg/s1600/13.PNG" height="376" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, 'Times New Roman', serif;">A
loss of 30.1pts from 309 bets. No need to scratch my head here as I understand
these results and I guess my only comment is that based on the underlying
results, I’m surprised the loss is not greater this month!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A
flat 14% loss if backing all Euro Draws in my rated games this season and it
has been impossible. Before the season started, I said it was a tough place to
make money based on the work I did in the Summer looking at the Underlying
results and the results so far have backed this up. I do feel like a correction
is due and if some sort of correction does come, I would hope the Euro Draw
systems do bounce back but it’s a long way back to break-even.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Overall,
a loss of 93.2pts from 2,220 bets. An ROI of -4.2%.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A
poor month again I think and similar to what I said at the end of the previous
two months, it could probably have been worse. It’s been a tough 3 months and
trying to not lose too badly has been the name of the game. It won’t always be
like this (I have to believe this, otherwise, I’d stop betting on footie now!)
and I’m hopeful we can get back to some sort of consistent profits like the
previous 4 seasons sooner rather than later. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">December
is a key month (I said this about November!) and this is traditionally the time
of the year when the ratings do well. Games come thick and fast over the next 6
weeks or so and if I’m still struggling at the end of January, I expect it’s
going to be a really tough season for my systems to make any headway at all. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Next
post will look at the season to date. :(</span><span style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
Graeme Dandhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06508032031340730990noreply@blogger.com0