The Football Analyst

A Quiet Weekend.....

2012-03-09T18:00:00.000Z

It says it all that when there are 143 system bets and it feels like a quiet weekend. :)

The exposure is pretty well spread among a number of games this weekend but the lack of higher quality bets does always lead me to think it will be a more difficult weekend. The average odds are 4.33 across 143 bets, so anything can happen I suspect.

Good luck if following.

The Football Analyst Bets for 10th-11th March

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/03/2012 Bsq Prem Lincoln v Alfreton Alfreton 3.60 2.54
10/03/2012 Championship Brighton v Portsmouth Portsmouth 5.50 4.09
10/03/2012 Championship Burnley v Crystal Palace Burnley 2.05 1.45
10/03/2012 Championship Derby v Watford Watford 3.20 2.28
11/03/2012 Championship Middlesbrough v Leeds Leeds 4.07 2.94
10/03/2012 Championship Reading v Leicester Leicester 3.60 2.55
10/03/2012 League 1 Huddersfield v Rochdale Rochdale 7.00 5.36
10/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Yeovil Yeovil 3.64 2.61
10/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.75 1.94
10/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Bournemouth Bournemouth 4.75 3.43
10/03/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Chesterfield Chesterfield 5.50 4.09
10/03/2012 League 1 Walsall v Hartlepool Hartlepool 3.47 2.45
10/03/2012 League 2 Morecambe v Hereford Hereford 4.00 2.86
10/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Plymouth Plymouth 4.61 3.35
10/03/2012 League 2 Southend v Accrington Accrington 5.00 3.63
10/03/2012 League 2 Swindon v Cheltenham Cheltenham 5.00 3.64
10/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.08
10/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.44
10/03/2012 Premiership Bolton v QPR QPR 3.10 2.19
11/03/2012 Premiership Man Utd v West Brom West Brom 12.00 10.00

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.75 1.94

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.75 1.94

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/03/2012 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Forest Green Forest Green 3.96 2.86
10/03/2012 Bsq Prem Lincoln v Alfreton Alfreton 3.60 2.54
10/03/2012 Championship Burnley v Crystal Palace Burnley 2.05 1.45
10/03/2012 Championship Derby v Watford Watford 3.20 2.28
10/03/2012 Championship Reading v Leicester Leicester 3.60 2.55
10/03/2012 League 1 Huddersfield v Rochdale Rochdale 7.00 5.36
10/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Yeovil Yeovil 3.64 2.61
10/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.75 1.94
10/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Bournemouth Bournemouth 4.75 3.43
10/03/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Chesterfield Chesterfield 5.50 4.09
10/03/2012 League 2 Morecambe v Hereford Hereford 4.00 2.86
10/03/2012 League 2 Swindon v Cheltenham Cheltenham 5.00 3.64
10/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.08
10/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.44
10/03/2012 Premiership Bolton v QPR QPR 3.10 2.19
11/03/2012 Premiership Man Utd v West Brom West Brom 12.00 10.00

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/03/2012 Championship Derby v Watford Watford 3.20 2.28
10/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.08
10/03/2012 Premiership Bolton v QPR QPR 3.10 2.19

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/03/2012 Bsq Prem Lincoln v Alfreton Alfreton 3.60 2.54
10/03/2012 Championship Burnley v Crystal Palace Burnley 2.05 1.45
10/03/2012 Championship Derby v Watford Watford 3.20 2.28
10/03/2012 Championship Reading v Leicester Leicester 3.60 2.55
10/03/2012 League 1 Huddersfield v Rochdale Rochdale 7.00 5.36
10/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Yeovil Yeovil 3.64 2.61
10/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.75 1.94
10/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Bournemouth Bournemouth 4.75 3.43
10/03/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Chesterfield Chesterfield 5.50 4.09
10/03/2012 League 2 Morecambe v Hereford Hereford 4.00 2.86
10/03/2012 League 2 Swindon v Cheltenham Cheltenham 5.00 3.64
10/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.08
10/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.44
10/03/2012 Premiership Bolton v QPR QPR 3.10 2.19
11/03/2012 Premiership Man Utd v West Brom West Brom 12.00 10.00

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/03/2012 Championship Derby v Watford Watford 3.20 2.28
10/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.08
10/03/2012 Premiership Bolton v QPR QPR 3.10 2.19

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.75 1.94

System 7-22
None

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.75 1.94

System 8-22
None

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/03/2012 Bsq Prem Lincoln v Alfreton Alfreton 3.60 2.54
10/03/2012 Championship Brighton v Portsmouth Portsmouth 5.50 4.09
10/03/2012 Championship Coventry v Birmingham Coventry 3.92 2.76
11/03/2012 Championship Middlesbrough v Leeds Leeds 4.07 2.94
10/03/2012 Championship Reading v Leicester Leicester 3.60 2.55
10/03/2012 League 1 Huddersfield v Rochdale Rochdale 7.00 5.36
10/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Yeovil Yeovil 3.64 2.61
10/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.75 1.94
10/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Bournemouth Bournemouth 4.75 3.43
10/03/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Chesterfield Chesterfield 5.50 4.09
10/03/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Leyton Orient Tranmere 2.20 1.55
10/03/2012 League 2 Morecambe v Hereford Hereford 4.00 2.86
10/03/2012 League 2 Southend v Accrington Accrington 5.00 3.63
10/03/2012 League 2 Swindon v Cheltenham Cheltenham 5.00 3.64
10/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.08
10/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.44

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/03/2012 Championship Coventry v Birmingham Coventry 3.75 2.65
11/03/2012 Championship Middlesbrough v Leeds Leeds 4.07 2.94
10/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.75 1.94
10/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.44
10/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.08

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/03/2012 Championship Coventry v Birmingham Coventry 3.75 2.65
10/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.75 1.94
10/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.44
10/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.08

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/03/2012 Championship Middlesbrough v Leeds Leeds 4.07 2.94
10/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.75 1.94
10/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.44
10/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.08

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/03/2012 Bsq Prem Lincoln v Alfreton Alfreton 3.60 2.54
10/03/2012 Championship Reading v Leicester Leicester 3.60 2.55
10/03/2012 League 1 Huddersfield v Rochdale Rochdale 7.00 5.36
10/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Yeovil Yeovil 3.64 2.61
10/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.75 1.94
10/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Bournemouth Bournemouth 4.75 3.43
10/03/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Chesterfield Chesterfield 5.50 4.09
10/03/2012 League 2 Morecambe v Hereford Hereford 4.00 2.86
10/03/2012 League 2 Swindon v Cheltenham Cheltenham 5.00 3.64
10/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.08
10/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.44

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/03/2012 Bsq Prem Lincoln v Alfreton Alfreton 3.60 2.54
10/03/2012 Championship Reading v Leicester Leicester 3.60 2.55
10/03/2012 League 1 Huddersfield v Rochdale Rochdale 7.00 5.36
10/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Yeovil Yeovil 3.64 2.61
10/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.75 1.94
10/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Bournemouth Bournemouth 4.75 3.43
10/03/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Chesterfield Chesterfield 5.50 4.09
10/03/2012 League 2 Morecambe v Hereford Hereford 4.00 2.86
10/03/2012 League 2 Swindon v Cheltenham Cheltenham 5.00 3.64
10/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.08
10/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.44

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/03/2012 Bsq Prem Lincoln v Alfreton Alfreton 3.60 2.54
10/03/2012 League 1 Huddersfield v Rochdale Rochdale 7.00 5.36
10/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Yeovil Yeovil 3.64 2.61
10/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.75 1.94
10/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Bournemouth Bournemouth 4.75 3.43
10/03/2012 League 2 Morecambe v Hereford Hereford 4.00 2.86
10/03/2012 League 2 Swindon v Cheltenham Cheltenham 5.00 3.64
10/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.08
10/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.44
10/03/2012 Premiership Bolton v QPR QPR 3.10 2.19
11/03/2012 Premiership Man Utd v West Brom West Brom 12.00 10.00

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/03/2012 Bsq Prem Lincoln v Alfreton Alfreton 3.60 2.54
10/03/2012 League 1 Huddersfield v Rochdale Rochdale 7.00 5.36
10/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Yeovil Yeovil 3.64 2.61
10/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.75 1.94
10/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Bournemouth Bournemouth 4.75 3.43
10/03/2012 League 2 Morecambe v Hereford Hereford 4.00 2.86
10/03/2012 League 2 Swindon v Cheltenham Cheltenham 5.00 3.64
10/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.08
10/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.44
10/03/2012 Premiership Bolton v QPR QPR 3.10 2.19
11/03/2012 Premiership Man Utd v West Brom West Brom 12.00 10.00

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/03/2012 Bsq Prem Lincoln v Alfreton Alfreton 3.60 2.54
10/03/2012 League 1 Huddersfield v Rochdale Rochdale 7.00 5.36
10/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Yeovil Yeovil 3.64 2.61
10/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.75 1.94
10/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Bournemouth Bournemouth 4.75 3.43
10/03/2012 League 2 Morecambe v Hereford Hereford 4.00 2.86
10/03/2012 League 2 Swindon v Cheltenham Cheltenham 5.00 3.64
10/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.08
10/03/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.44

Quick update on the future

2012-03-08T10:33:00.001Z

A quick post concerning the remainder of this season and for those looking to follow the bets as I’ve had a few enquiries via the blog comments and PMs/emails from people who are interested in receiving the bets via email distribution.

Simply, unless you are on the current email subscription list, the only way to follow the bets until the end of this season is to do so via the blog. I don’t want to take on new subscribers at the moment as we’re entering the final stages of this season and quite simply, anyone joining now can achieve results in the short-term that may not be a true indication of the underlying performance of the systems. This may be good or bad but either way, I don’t want the systems judged by anyone over a 2 month spell.

The bets will appear on the blog at 6pm on a Friday and 9am on a Tuesday for the remainder of this season. These are UK times. People can follow the bets that way and although the odds may have moved from the odds quoted, if using a range of bookmakers and Betfair, you’ll get very close to the odds I suspect in the majority of games.

There are no concrete plans for next season yet but all I can share (which has already been shared with current subscribers and SBC forum members) is that the service will be developed over the summer for the benefit of those following the systems. This will include new systems for the top European Leagues using the same ratings methodology I use in the 6 UK leagues at the moment. In addition, I will also be adding Asian Handicap options to following the bets and although this can’t be used on every system or every bet, I believe that if used properly, it can help reduce some of the volatility that we see on the systems without eroding too much of the edge that the systems have. I also hope to share the historical results in Excel for all systems that will allow people to build their optimal portfolio of systems for next season.

I’m not quite sure what will happen on the blog next season but it is still my intention to run with a blog even though I’ll move over to a website to put the football systems on a more professional footing going forward. The blog will either be used to trial some of the new systems or will be used to discuss the results of the systems.

What I can say is that not all bets will be posted on the blog pre-game now as I’ve been doing this for over a season and a half and hopefully this has allowed as many people as possible to make a profit from following the systems without any costs (apart from my time!). I think a 2 season trial of the systems is a good enough indicator whether the systems have an edge or not and therefore, if people would like to continue to follow the systems, they can join the email distribution list if they wish next season.

I now have over 6,500 proofed bets producing an ROI of 8%+ and for the portfolio of systems I recommended people follow (which is also recommended by the SBC), this is an ROI of 16%+ over 1,700 bets. In addition, I also have some of the best performing footie systems which are producing ROIs in excess of 20% over the last season and a half and these systems are unrivalled in the market at the moment. Therefore, there are multiple ways of following the bets but more importantly, there are a lot of ways to make money and hopefully people appreciate this aspect of the systems.

Next season’s aim has to be to establish the footie systems as the best in the market and hopefully grow the email subscription base to make this project worthwhile continuing with into the future. The work that goes into maintaining the ratings, finding the system bets and monitoring the results is nearly a full-time job and therefore, it is only sustainable long-term if I can cover my time for doing the work.

I hope this provides a quick update for those who have asked various questions in the past week. When I have more to share regarding next season’s plans, I’ll mention it on here.

Back tomorrow night with the weekend bets.

Not a bad return.........

2012-03-07T13:39:00.002Z

There have been a lot of results since the last update but I’ll cover off the weekend and midweek results at once. There have been 279 system bets in total, so a lot to get through.

In summary, it was a disappointing weekend really with a very low strike rate for the base algorithms again. However, things clicked last night with a much higher strike rate and some nice priced winners too, so it has helped get things back on track after a difficult spell.

Algorithm one has had 35 bets. 10 winners, 9 draws and 16 losers doesn’t exactly look like a decent return will have been achieved but it includes some nice priced winners. Overall, a profit of 8.00pts for H/A betting and a profit of 6.20pts for DNB.

Algorithm two had 25 bets in the same period. 9 winners, 6 draws and 10 losers. A much better performance from this algorithm and it overtakes algorithm one as the best performing algorithm this season. A profit of 14.48pts for H/A betting and a profit of 10.94pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm three has had 31 bets in the period. 9 winners, 11 draws and 11 losers. An unbelievable number of draws really but thankfully, plenty of winners too. A profit of 13.24pts for H/A betting and a profit of 13.04pts for DNB betting. You can see the draw helped the DNB returns here.

Basically, due to the fact the base ratings have had a decent period, then this should be reflected in the systems making profits and thankfully, this is the case.

The established systems made a profit of 42.95pts for H/A betting and 22.16pts for DNB betting. This was from 134 bets, so a decent ROI was also achieved in the period.

The new systems made a profit of 54.59pts for H/A betting and 45.60pts for DNB betting. This was from 145 bets, so again, a very healthy ROI has been achieved.

Overall, a profit of 97.54pts for H/A betting and 67.76pts for DNB betting from 279 games. An ROI of 35.0% for H/A betting and an ROI of 24.3% for DNB betting.

This isn’t a bad return for the last two sets of fixtures……………

The next bets will be on the blog on Friday evening as usual.

Tonight's Bets

2012-03-06T09:00:00.000Z

Another poor weekend if I'm honest but a small profit was made overall due to a couple of important teams winning. It's been really tough the last few weeks to find away winners and the weekend was no different. Hopefully it changes tonight as most of these are away bets again!

Good luck. I'll update tomorrow with the weekend results and tonight's results.

The Football Analyst Bets for 6th March

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06/03/2012 Bsq Prem Barrow v Bath Bath 7.00 5.42
06/03/2012 Bsq Prem Fleetwood v Grimsby Fleetwood 1.73 1.31
06/03/2012 Championship Peterborough v Millwall Millwall 3.17 2.25
06/03/2012 Championship Reading v Portsmouth Portsmouth 9.00 6.88
06/03/2012 League 1 Charlton v Colchester Colchester 6.00 4.45
06/03/2012 League 1 Huddersfield v Hartlepool Hartlepool 6.00 4.46
06/03/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Yeovil Yeovil 7.00 5.41
06/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.21 2.26
06/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Chesterfield Chesterfield 3.50 2.47
06/03/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Barnet Barnet 4.75 3.52
06/03/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Hereford Hereford 3.10 2.19
06/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Crewe Rotherham 2.00 1.44
06/03/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Oxford Oxford 4.00 2.86
06/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Aldershot Aldershot 3.75 2.65

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06/03/2012 Bsq Prem Fleetwood v Grimsby Fleetwood 1.73 1.31
06/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.21 2.26
06/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Crewe Rotherham 2.00 1.44
06/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Aldershot Aldershot 3.75 2.65

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.21 2.26
06/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Aldershot Aldershot 3.75 2.65

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06/03/2012 Bsq Prem Barrow v Bath Bath 7.00 5.42
06/03/2012 Bsq Prem Fleetwood v Grimsby Fleetwood 1.73 1.31
06/03/2012 League 1 Charlton v Colchester Colchester 6.00 4.45
06/03/2012 League 1 Huddersfield v Hartlepool Hartlepool 6.00 4.46
06/03/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Yeovil Yeovil 7.00 5.41
06/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.21 2.26
06/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Chesterfield Chesterfield 3.50 2.47
06/03/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Barnet Barnet 4.75 3.52
06/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Crewe Rotherham 2.00 1.44
06/03/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Oxford Oxford 4.00 2.86
06/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Aldershot Aldershot 3.75 2.65

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06/03/2012 Bsq Prem Fleetwood v Grimsby Fleetwood 1.73 1.31
06/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Aldershot Aldershot 3.75 2.65

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06/03/2012 Bsq Prem Barrow v Bath Bath 7.00 5.42
06/03/2012 Bsq Prem Fleetwood v Grimsby Fleetwood 1.73 1.31
06/03/2012 League 1 Charlton v Colchester Colchester 6.00 4.45
06/03/2012 League 1 Huddersfield v Hartlepool Hartlepool 6.00 4.46
06/03/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Yeovil Yeovil 7.00 5.41
06/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.21 2.26
06/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Chesterfield Chesterfield 3.50 2.47
06/03/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Barnet Barnet 4.75 3.52
06/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Crewe Rotherham 2.00 1.44
06/03/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Oxford Oxford 4.00 2.86
06/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Aldershot Aldershot 3.75 2.65

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06/03/2012 Bsq Prem Fleetwood v Grimsby Fleetwood 1.73 1.31
06/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Aldershot Aldershot 3.75 2.65

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06/03/2012 Bsq Prem Fleetwood v Grimsby Fleetwood 1.73 1.31
06/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.21 2.26
06/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Crewe Rotherham 2.00 1.44
06/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Aldershot Aldershot 3.75 2.65

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06/03/2012 Bsq Prem Fleetwood v Grimsby Fleetwood 1.73 1.31
06/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Aldershot Aldershot 3.75 2.65

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.21 2.26
06/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Aldershot Aldershot 3.75 2.65

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Aldershot Aldershot 3.75 2.65

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06/03/2012 Bsq Prem Barrow v Bath Bath 7.00 5.42
06/03/2012 Championship Reading v Portsmouth Portsmouth 9.00 6.88
06/03/2012 League 1 Charlton v Colchester Colchester 6.00 4.45
06/03/2012 League 1 Huddersfield v Hartlepool Hartlepool 6.00 4.46
06/03/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Yeovil Yeovil 7.00 5.41
06/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.21 2.26
06/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Chesterfield Chesterfield 3.50 2.47
06/03/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Notts Co Tranmere 2.70 1.91
06/03/2012 League 1 Walsall v Sheff Utd Walsall 3.80 2.70
06/03/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Barnet Barnet 4.75 3.52
06/03/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Hereford Hereford 3.10 2.19
06/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Crewe Rotherham 2.00 1.44
06/03/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Oxford Oxford 4.00 2.86
06/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Aldershot Aldershot 3.75 2.65

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.21 2.26
06/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Crewe Rotherham 2.00 1.44
06/03/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Oxford Oxford 4.00 2.86
06/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Aldershot Aldershot 3.75 2.65

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.21 2.26
06/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Aldershot Aldershot 3.75 2.65

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.00 1.44
06/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Crewe Rotherham 4.00 2.86
06/03/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Oxford Oxford 3.75 2.65
06/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Aldershot Aldershot 3.75 2.65

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06/03/2012 Bsq Prem Barrow v Bath Bath 7.00 5.42
06/03/2012 League 1 Charlton v Colchester Colchester 6.00 4.45
06/03/2012 League 1 Huddersfield v Hartlepool Hartlepool 6.00 4.46
06/03/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Yeovil Yeovil 7.00 5.41
06/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.21 2.26
06/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Chesterfield Chesterfield 3.50 2.47
06/03/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Barnet Barnet 4.75 3.52
06/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Crewe Rotherham 2.00 1.44
06/03/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Oxford Oxford 4.00 2.86
06/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Aldershot Aldershot 3.75 2.65

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06/03/2012 Bsq Prem Barrow v Bath Bath 7.00 5.42
06/03/2012 League 1 Charlton v Colchester Colchester 6.00 4.45
06/03/2012 League 1 Huddersfield v Hartlepool Hartlepool 6.00 4.46
06/03/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Yeovil Yeovil 7.00 5.41
06/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.21 2.26
06/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Chesterfield Chesterfield 3.50 2.47
06/03/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Barnet Barnet 4.75 3.52
06/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Crewe Rotherham 2.00 1.44
06/03/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Oxford Oxford 4.00 2.86
06/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Aldershot Aldershot 3.75 2.65

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06/03/2012 League 1 Charlton v Colchester Colchester 6.00 4.45 Old Criteria
06/03/2012 League 1 Huddersfield v Hartlepool Hartlepool 6.00 4.46 Old Criteria
06/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.21 2.26 New Criteria
06/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Chesterfield Chesterfield 3.50 2.47 New Criteria
06/03/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Barnet Barnet 4.75 3.52 Old Criteria
06/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Crewe Rotherham 2.00 1.44 New Criteria
06/03/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Oxford Oxford 4.00 2.86 Old Criteria
06/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Aldershot Aldershot 3.75 2.65 New Criteria

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06/03/2012 League 1 Charlton v Colchester Colchester 6.00 4.45 Old Criteria
06/03/2012 League 1 Huddersfield v Hartlepool Hartlepool 6.00 4.46 Old Criteria
06/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.21 2.26 New Criteria
06/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Chesterfield Chesterfield 3.50 2.47 New Criteria
06/03/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Barnet Barnet 4.75 3.52 Old Criteria
06/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Crewe Rotherham 2.00 1.44 New Criteria
06/03/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Oxford Oxford 4.00 2.86 Old Criteria
06/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Aldershot Aldershot 3.75 2.65 New Criteria

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06/03/2012 League 1 Charlton v Colchester Colchester 6.00 4.45 Old Criteria
06/03/2012 League 1 Huddersfield v Hartlepool Hartlepool 6.00 4.46 Old Criteria
06/03/2012 League 1 Oldham v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.21 2.26 New Criteria
06/03/2012 League 1 Preston v Chesterfield Chesterfield 3.50 2.47 New Criteria
06/03/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Barnet Barnet 4.75 3.52 Old Criteria
06/03/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Crewe Rotherham 2.00 1.44 New Criteria
06/03/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Oxford Oxford 4.00 2.86 Old Criteria
06/03/2012 League 2 Torquay v Aldershot Aldershot 3.75 2.65 New Criteria

Fed up saying this but....

2012-03-02T18:00:00.000Z

It's another massive weekend for the systems.

I sometimes get astounded at the sheer number of bets thrown up at times and this weekend is one of these times. When I was updating the ratings after the midweek games, I could see quite quickly there were a number of low value bets appearing, especially at home but I'm surprised so many have made it onto systems 7 and 8. You very rarely get 2 system 7-22 home bets on the same day! You very rarely get 2 bets in a month on this system if I'm honest.

Hard to pinpoint the biggest game this weekend. I would personally take an Oldham win away to Sheff Utd due to the high odds as if they win, it means I can have a stinker and probably still not make a bad loss on the weekend. Also should mention Wolves made it onto system this week which was surprising to me. They seem a bit overpriced according to my ratings but not sure I'd be fancying them otherwise. Expect them to get humped away to Fulham.

Anyway, good luck and we'll see what happens. There is a Monday night game and there is a busy midweek card next week, so I might leave the update until after the midweek games.

The Football Analyst Bets for 2nd-5th March

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/03/2012 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Braintree Braintree 5.50 4.19
03/03/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Lincoln Lincoln 5.00 3.67
03/03/2012 Bsq Prem Southport v Newport Southport 2.00 1.44
03/03/2012 Championship Ipswich v Bristol City Bristol City 4.50 3.35
03/03/2012 Championship Millwall v Reading Millwall 3.14 2.20
03/03/2012 Championship Watford v Burnley Burnley 2.88 2.05
03/03/2012 League 1 Bournemouth v Charlton Bournemouth 2.88 2.04
03/03/2012 League 1 Chesterfield v Tranmere Tranmere 2.88 2.03
03/03/2012 League 1 Colchester v Preston Colchester 2.10 1.50
03/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Oldham Oldham 7.65 5.93
03/03/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Brentford Yeovil 3.14 2.23
03/03/2012 League 2 Accrington v Port Vale Port Vale 3.12 2.21
03/03/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Morecambe Aldershot 2.00 1.44
03/03/2012 League 2 Crawley v Torquay Crawley 1.75 1.33
04/03/2012 Premiership Fulham v Wolves Wolves 6.92 5.26
03/03/2012 Premiership Liverpool v Arsenal Liverpool 2.05 1.48
04/03/2012 Premiership Tottenham v Man Utd Tottenham 2.97 2.12
03/03/2012 Premiership Wigan v Swansea Wigan 2.57 1.81
05/03/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Inverness Inverness 5.50 4.09
03/03/2012 SPL Hibernian v St Mirren St Mirren 3.44 2.43
03/03/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v St Johnstone St Johnstone 2.75 1.92

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/03/2012 League 1 Chesterfield v Tranmere Tranmere 2.88 2.03
03/03/2012 League 1 Colchester v Preston Colchester 2.10 1.50
03/03/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Morecambe Aldershot 2.00 1.44
03/03/2012 League 2 Crawley v Torquay Crawley 1.75 1.33
04/03/2012 Premiership Fulham v Wolves Wolves 6.92 5.26
03/03/2012 Premiership Liverpool v Arsenal Liverpool 2.05 1.48

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/03/2012 League 1 Chesterfield v Tranmere Tranmere 2.88 2.03
03/03/2012 League 1 Colchester v Preston Colchester 2.10 1.50
03/03/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Morecambe Aldershot 2.00 1.44
03/03/2012 League 2 Crawley v Torquay Crawley 1.75 1.33

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/03/2012 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Braintree Braintree 5.50 4.19
03/03/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Lincoln Lincoln 5.00 3.67
03/03/2012 Championship Ipswich v Bristol City Bristol City 4.50 3.35
03/03/2012 League 1 Chesterfield v Tranmere Tranmere 2.88 2.03
03/03/2012 League 1 Colchester v Preston Colchester 2.10 1.50
03/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Oldham Oldham 7.65 5.93
03/03/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Brentford Yeovil 3.14 2.23
03/03/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Morecambe Aldershot 2.00 1.44
03/03/2012 League 2 Crawley v Torquay Crawley 1.75 1.33
04/03/2012 Premiership Fulham v Wolves Wolves 6.92 5.26
03/03/2012 Premiership Liverpool v Arsenal Liverpool 2.05 1.48
05/03/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Inverness Inverness 5.50 4.09
03/03/2012 SPL Hibernian v St Mirren St Mirren 3.44 2.43
03/03/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v St Johnstone St Johnstone 2.75 1.92

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/03/2012 League 1 Colchester v Preston Colchester 2.10 1.50
03/03/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Morecambe Aldershot 2.00 1.44
03/03/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v St Johnstone St Johnstone 2.75 1.92

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/03/2012 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Braintree Braintree 5.50 4.19
03/03/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Lincoln Lincoln 5.00 3.67
03/03/2012 Championship Ipswich v Bristol City Bristol City 4.50 3.35
03/03/2012 League 1 Chesterfield v Tranmere Tranmere 2.88 2.03
03/03/2012 League 1 Colchester v Preston Colchester 2.10 1.50
03/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Oldham Oldham 7.65 5.93
03/03/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Brentford Yeovil 3.14 2.23
03/03/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Morecambe Aldershot 2.00 1.44
03/03/2012 League 2 Crawley v Torquay Crawley 1.75 1.33
04/03/2012 Premiership Fulham v Wolves Wolves 6.92 5.26
03/03/2012 Premiership Liverpool v Arsenal Liverpool 2.05 1.48
05/03/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Inverness Inverness 5.50 4.09
03/03/2012 SPL Hibernian v St Mirren St Mirren 3.44 2.43
03/03/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v St Johnstone St Johnstone 2.75 1.92

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/03/2012 League 1 Colchester v Preston Colchester 2.10 1.50
03/03/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Morecambe Aldershot 2.00 1.44
03/03/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v St Johnstone St Johnstone 2.75 1.92

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/03/2012 League 1 Chesterfield v Tranmere Tranmere 2.88 2.03
03/03/2012 League 1 Colchester v Preston Colchester 2.10 1.50
03/03/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Morecambe Aldershot 2.00 1.44
03/03/2012 League 2 Crawley v Torquay Crawley 1.75 1.33
04/03/2012 Premiership Fulham v Wolves Wolves 6.92 5.26
03/03/2012 Premiership Liverpool v Arsenal Liverpool 2.05 1.48

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/03/2012 League 1 Colchester v Preston Colchester 2.10 1.50
03/03/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Morecambe Aldershot 2.00 1.44

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/03/2012 League 1 Chesterfield v Tranmere Tranmere 2.88 2.03
03/03/2012 League 1 Colchester v Preston Colchester 2.10 1.50
03/03/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Morecambe Aldershot 2.00 1.44
03/03/2012 League 2 Crawley v Torquay Crawley 1.75 1.33

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/03/2012 League 1 Colchester v Preston Colchester 2.10 1.50
03/03/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Morecambe Aldershot 2.00 1.44

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/03/2012 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Braintree Braintree 5.50 4.19
03/03/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Lincoln Lincoln 5.00 3.67
03/03/2012 Bsq Prem Southport v Newport Southport 2.00 1.44
02/03/2012 Championship Blackpool v Hull Hull 3.60 2.55
03/03/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Peterborough Peterborough 4.01 2.86
03/03/2012 Championship Ipswich v Bristol City Bristol City 4.50 3.35
03/03/2012 League 1 Bury v Huddersfield Bury 4.18 3.02
03/03/2012 League 1 Chesterfield v Tranmere Tranmere 2.88 2.03
03/03/2012 League 1 Colchester v Preston Colchester 2.10 1.50
03/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Oldham Oldham 7.65 5.93
03/03/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Brentford Yeovil 3.14 2.23
03/03/2012 League 2 Accrington v Port Vale Port Vale 3.12 2.21
03/03/2012 Premiership Liverpool v Arsenal Liverpool 2.05 1.48
03/03/2012 Premiership QPR v Everton QPR 3.20 2.27
04/03/2012 Premiership Tottenham v Man Utd Tottenham 2.97 2.12
03/03/2012 Premiership West Brom v Chelsea West Brom 4.34 3.14
05/03/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Inverness Inverness 5.50 4.09

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/03/2012 League 1 Chesterfield v Tranmere Tranmere 2.88 2.03
03/03/2012 League 1 Colchester v Preston Colchester 2.10 1.50

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/03/2012 League 1 Chesterfield v Tranmere Tranmere 2.88 2.03
03/03/2012 League 1 Colchester v Preston Colchester 2.10 1.50

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/03/2012 League 1 Chesterfield v Tranmere Tranmere 2.88 2.03
03/03/2012 League 1 Colchester v Preston Colchester 2.10 1.50

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/03/2012 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Braintree Braintree 5.50 4.19
03/03/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Lincoln Lincoln 5.00 3.67
03/03/2012 Championship Ipswich v Bristol City Bristol City 4.50 3.35
03/03/2012 League 1 Chesterfield v Tranmere Tranmere 2.88 2.03
03/03/2012 League 1 Colchester v Preston Colchester 2.10 1.50
03/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Oldham Oldham 7.65 5.93
03/03/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Brentford Yeovil 3.14 2.23
03/03/2012 Premiership Liverpool v Arsenal Liverpool 2.05 1.48
05/03/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Inverness Inverness 5.50 4.09

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/03/2012 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Braintree Braintree 5.50 4.19
03/03/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Lincoln Lincoln 5.00 3.67
03/03/2012 Championship Ipswich v Bristol City Bristol City 4.50 3.35
03/03/2012 League 1 Chesterfield v Tranmere Tranmere 2.88 2.03
03/03/2012 League 1 Colchester v Preston Colchester 2.10 1.50
03/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Oldham Oldham 7.65 5.93
03/03/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Brentford Yeovil 3.14 2.23
03/03/2012 Premiership Liverpool v Arsenal Liverpool 2.05 1.48
05/03/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Inverness Inverness 5.50 4.09

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/03/2012 Bsq Prem Southport v Newport Southport 2.00 1.44 New Criteria
03/03/2012 Championship Watford v Burnley Burnley 2.88 2.05 New Criteria
03/03/2012 League 1 Chesterfield v Tranmere Tranmere 2.88 2.03 New Criteria
03/03/2012 League 1 Colchester v Preston Colchester 2.10 1.50 New Criteria
03/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Oldham Oldham 7.65 5.93 Old Criteria
03/03/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Morecambe Aldershot 2.00 1.44 New Criteria
03/03/2012 League 2 Crawley v Torquay Crawley 1.75 1.33 Old Criteria
05/03/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Inverness Inverness 5.50 4.09 Old Criteria
03/03/2012 SPL Hibernian v St Mirren St Mirren 3.44 2.43 New Criteria
03/03/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v St Johnstone St Johnstone 2.75 1.92 Old Criteria

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/03/2012 Bsq Prem Southport v Newport Southport 2.00 1.44 New Criteria
03/03/2012 Championship Watford v Burnley Burnley 2.88 2.05 New Criteria
03/03/2012 League 1 Chesterfield v Tranmere Tranmere 2.88 2.03 New Criteria
03/03/2012 League 1 Colchester v Preston Colchester 2.10 1.50 New Criteria
03/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Oldham Oldham 7.65 5.93 Old Criteria
03/03/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Morecambe Aldershot 2.00 1.44 New Criteria
03/03/2012 League 2 Crawley v Torquay Crawley 1.75 1.33 Old Criteria
04/03/2012 Premiership Tottenham v Man Utd Tottenham 2.97 2.12 Old Criteria
03/03/2012 Premiership Wigan v Swansea Wigan 2.57 1.81 Old Criteria
05/03/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Inverness Inverness 5.50 4.09 Old Criteria
03/03/2012 SPL Hibernian v St Mirren St Mirren 3.44 2.43 New Criteria
03/03/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v St Johnstone St Johnstone 2.75 1.92 Old Criteria

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/03/2012 Bsq Prem Southport v Newport Southport 2.00 1.44 New Criteria
03/03/2012 Championship Watford v Burnley Burnley 2.88 2.05 New Criteria
03/03/2012 League 1 Chesterfield v Tranmere Tranmere 2.88 2.03 New Criteria
03/03/2012 League 1 Colchester v Preston Colchester 2.10 1.50 New Criteria
03/03/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Oldham Oldham 7.65 5.93 Old Criteria
03/03/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Morecambe Aldershot 2.00 1.44 New Criteria
03/03/2012 League 2 Crawley v Torquay Crawley 1.75 1.33 Old Criteria
03/03/2012 Premiership QPR v Everton QPR 3.20 2.27 New Criteria
04/03/2012 Premiership Tottenham v Man Utd Tottenham 2.97 2.12 Old Criteria
03/03/2012 Premiership West Brom v Chelsea West Brom 4.34 3.14 New Criteria
03/03/2012 Premiership Wigan v Swansea Wigan 2.57 1.81 Old Criteria
05/03/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Inverness Inverness 5.50 4.09 Old Criteria
03/03/2012 SPL Hibernian v St Mirren St Mirren 3.44 2.43 New Criteria
03/03/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v St Johnstone St Johnstone 2.75 1.92 Old Criteria

Review of February......

2012-02-29T12:22:00.000Z

The review of February is now up in the usual place. http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/p/201112-monthly-results.html

I don’t want to repeat the review again here but I think the key thing to take from the review is the fact that for the first time ever, both rating algorithms lost badly and yet, the combined systems made a profit on the month. There have been times before when one algorithm has lost and the combined systems have made a profit and of course, there have been times when both algorithms have made a profit and yet, the combined systems lost. However, there has never been a time when both algorithms lost while the combined systems make a profit.

I think it highlights the main reason why my combined systems are producing unparalleled returns (compared to other systems and tipsters) over such a large number of bets. Quite simply, I’ve created something that is pretty robust in the sense that even when my base value ratings are not having a good time of it (we’re seeing that at the moment), my ratings and systems are smart enough to know which bets are the best bets and to stake them accordingly. It’s hard to get across how difficult this is to do as simply, if your ratings aren’t doing well, trying to build a system to make a profit is pretty difficult to do! I’d even go as far to say that even if you have profitable ratings, trying to build a system or set of systems to make a profit is very difficult to do.

Anyway, that’s about the only positive to take from the month of February. 10 betting days, 8 losing days and 2 winning days. Just about sums up the month for me. I reckon it’s that last statistic that has made the month feel much worse than it looks in my P&L. When you lose 80% of the time, you don’t expect to be in profit. I’d even go as far to say that I don’t deserve to be in profit but maybe I’m being a bit harsh on my systems!

15 months of proofed results for the combined systems, 12 months of profits. 80% of months have been winning months. Not a bad statistic!

Next bets will be up on Friday evening for the weekend. If I can think of anything to write about before then, I’ll do a post but my attention has already turned to discussing AH betting in the SBC forum and I’m starting to build an algorithm for the European Leagues for next season, so writing on the blog isn’t a priority at the moment if I’m honest.

Hopefully everyone’s P&L this season is still in one piece following February…………

Results Update

2012-02-29T11:18:00.002Z

I’ll try my best to not rant on too much considering I need to write a review for the month next and no doubt I’ll cover this topic again but I reckon the last two games just about sum up this month for me. It has been a horrible, horrible month and apart from the 3 bad losing months the systems have had, this has easily been the least enjoyable month for me. I’m sure part of it is due to the fact I returned from my honeymoon and threw myself straight back into it (maybe a longer break would have been better!) but either way, it has been horrible this month.

Saturday was actually quite a good day and if one or two goals had gone my way, I’d have been in record breaking territory I suspect for most points won in a day! Macclesfield couldn’t hang onto a 1-0 lead against Oxford at odds of 7.50, so that alone would have probably been enough to make it an exceptional day. There were a few other draws in there for big priced aways though and as always, it’s a thin line with these types. A draw turning into a win is a massive swing but unfortunately, it didn’t happen for many of them.

It did happen for Nottingham Forest though who were selected to beat Birmingham and one of the biggest games as of the weekend was Hibs away to Kilmarnock. They won easily and these two results ensured it was never going to be a losing day. The fact that Notts County managed to win too as the most picked team completed a decent day for the systems.

I was waiting on Crawley on Monday night. Having watched that game, I’m not quite sure how Crawley managed to lose as Shrewsbury didn’t really play well at all, struggled to muster a shot on goal and won 2-1! Disappointing really considering the way the game went.

Not quite as disappointing as last night though. Plymouth were quite a well selected low value bet against Macclesfield and from what I could make out, they played well. Unfortunately, they managed to concede in the 96th minute of the game with what was literally the last kick of the ball in the game. That again is a killer as instead of a substantial win, it’s a substantial loss for the systems and again, I think it sums up this month with away bets.

The only good thing to take from the month is that the P&L indicates it wasn’t quite as bad as it feels but sometimes at this game, the P&L lies! It is lying this month as it has been terrible and I reckon I’ve been very lucky to post a profit but I’ll take it. I’ll always take a profit if offered it, no matter how lucky I think it was!

Algorithm one had 18 bets. 6 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses. A profit of 2.57pts for H/A betting and a profit of 1.75pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm two had 18 bets, 6 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses. A profit of 2.57pts for H/A betting and a profit of 2.75pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm three had 18 bets, 5 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses. A loss of 0.18pts for H/A betting and a profit of 0.81pts for DNB betting.

Overall, not a disaster for any of the algorithms which makes a change this month if I’m honest!

The systems did an OK job in using these bets.

The established systems made a profit of 27.41pts for H/A betting and a profit of 16.29pts for DNB.

The new systems made a profit of 8.79pts for H/A betting and a profit of 10.67pts for DNB.

Overall, a small profitable selection of games but it could and should have been much better.

The next post will be when the monthly review has been completed.

One bet for tonight.....

2012-02-28T09:06:00.001Z

I’ll do a results post after this game tonight. No point writing one today and then one tomorrow. It was an OK weekend but Crawley spoiled it last night really by not being able to beat a poor Shrewsbury side despite dominating most of the game.

Hopefully Plymouth can do the business tonight for us.

The Football Analyst Bets for 28th February

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 2.75 1.92

System 7
None

System 8
None

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 2.75 1.92

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 2.75 1.92

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 2.75 1.92

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 2.75 1.92

System 7-21
None

System 7-22
None

System 8-21
None

System 8-22
None

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 2.75 1.92

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 2.75 1.92

System 33
None

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 2.75 1.92

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 2.75 1.92

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 2.75 1.92

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 2.75 1.92 New Criteria

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 2.75 1.92 New Criteria

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 2.75 1.92 New Criteria

Big Weekend Coming Up......

2012-02-24T18:00:00.000Z

Here’s the bets for this weekend. Another action packed weekend and if it goes badly, I’ll be throwing my toys out of the pram I suspect.

I think it’s actually the case that the combined systems are papering over the cracks at the moment. System 6-21 is on course for its worst losing month ever (including all backtesting) and it has become nearly impossible to find away winners in the last few weeks. Considering 80% of my bets are aways, it means it has been impossible to win recently.

Looking at this weekend, there is a strong bias towards aways as usual and I can really do with a few winning to get the show back on the road.

Of course, it’s not all doom and gloom as systems 6-22 to 8-22 are doing an amazing job at keeping things pretty stable but they need some help from system 6-21. You can’t keep hitting a couple of winners from 15 bets on system 6-21 and relying on system 7-21 to hit the couple of winners! It isn’t a miracle worker.

The base algorithms are finding it very tough at the moment due to the sudden home bias that has appeared, so hopefully things get back to normality sooner rather than later!

Good luck.

The Football Analyst Bets for 25th-27th February

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Southport Southport 2.75 1.94
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Tamworth Tamworth 5.50 4.03
25/02/2012 Championship Birmingham v Notts Forest Notts Forest 6.00 4.42
25/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Ipswich Ipswich 3.25 2.33
25/02/2012 Championship Coventry v Barnsley Barnsley 3.22 2.26
25/02/2012 League 1 Bury v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 3.00 2.14
25/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Yeovil Yeovil 5.00 3.70
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
25/02/2012 League 1 Oldham v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.39
25/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Walsall Walsall 3.60 2.57
25/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Wimbledon Wimbledon 3.75 2.69
25/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Macclesfield Macclesfield 7.50 5.77
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 Premiership QPR v Fulham QPR 2.70 1.90
25/02/2012 Premiership West Brom v Sunderland West Brom 2.45 1.73
25/02/2012 SPL Hearts v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.20 2.25
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Southport Southport 2.75 1.94
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Tamworth Tamworth 5.50 4.03
25/02/2012 Championship Birmingham v Notts Forest Notts Forest 6.00 4.42
25/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Ipswich Ipswich 3.25 2.33
25/02/2012 Championship Coventry v Barnsley Barnsley 3.22 2.26
25/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Yeovil Yeovil 5.00 3.70
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
25/02/2012 League 1 Oldham v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.39
25/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Walsall Walsall 3.60 2.57
25/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Wimbledon Wimbledon 3.75 2.69
25/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Macclesfield Macclesfield 7.50 5.77
25/02/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.90
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 Premiership West Brom v Sunderland West Brom 2.45 1.73
25/02/2012 SPL Hearts v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.20 2.25
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03
25/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Aberdeen St Mirren 2.50 1.74

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Southport Southport 2.75 1.94
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Southport Southport 2.75 1.94
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Tamworth Tamworth 5.50 4.03
25/02/2012 Championship Birmingham v Notts Forest Notts Forest 6.00 4.42
25/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Ipswich Ipswich 3.25 2.33
25/02/2012 Championship Coventry v Barnsley Barnsley 3.22 2.26
25/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Yeovil Yeovil 5.00 3.70
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
25/02/2012 League 1 Oldham v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.39
25/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Walsall Walsall 3.60 2.57
25/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Wimbledon Wimbledon 3.75 2.69
25/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Macclesfield Macclesfield 7.50 5.77
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 Premiership West Brom v Sunderland West Brom 2.45 1.73
25/02/2012 SPL Hearts v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.20 2.25
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Southport Southport 2.75 1.94
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Tamworth Tamworth 5.50 4.03
25/02/2012 Championship Birmingham v Notts Forest Notts Forest 6.00 4.42
25/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Ipswich Ipswich 3.25 2.33
25/02/2012 Championship Coventry v Barnsley Barnsley 3.22 2.26
25/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Yeovil Yeovil 5.00 3.70
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
25/02/2012 League 1 Oldham v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.39
25/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Walsall Walsall 3.60 2.57
25/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Wimbledon Wimbledon 3.75 2.69
25/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Macclesfield Macclesfield 7.50 5.77
25/02/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.90
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 Premiership QPR v Fulham QPR 2.70 1.90
25/02/2012 Premiership West Brom v Sunderland West Brom 2.45 1.73
25/02/2012 SPL Hearts v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.20 2.25
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03
25/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Aberdeen St Mirren 2.50 1.74

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Wimbledon Wimbledon 3.75 2.69
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Wimbledon Wimbledon 3.75 2.69
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Wimbledon Wimbledon 3.75 2.69
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Tamworth Tamworth 5.50 4.03
25/02/2012 Championship Birmingham v Notts Forest Notts Forest 6.00 4.42
25/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Ipswich Ipswich 3.25 2.33
25/02/2012 Championship Coventry v Barnsley Barnsley 3.22 2.26
25/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Yeovil Yeovil 5.00 3.70
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
25/02/2012 League 1 Oldham v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.39
25/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Walsall Walsall 3.60 2.57
25/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Wimbledon Wimbledon 3.75 2.69
25/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Macclesfield Macclesfield 7.50 5.77
25/02/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.90
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 Premiership West Brom v Sunderland West Brom 2.45 1.73
25/02/2012 SPL Hearts v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.20 2.25
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03
25/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Aberdeen St Mirren 2.50 1.74

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Tamworth Tamworth 5.50 4.03
25/02/2012 Championship Birmingham v Notts Forest Notts Forest 6.00 4.42
25/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Ipswich Ipswich 3.25 2.33
25/02/2012 Championship Coventry v Barnsley Barnsley 3.22 2.26
25/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Yeovil Yeovil 5.00 3.70
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
25/02/2012 League 1 Oldham v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.39
25/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Walsall Walsall 3.60 2.57
25/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Wimbledon Wimbledon 3.75 2.69
25/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Macclesfield Macclesfield 7.50 5.77
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 Premiership West Brom v Sunderland West Brom 2.45 1.73
25/02/2012 SPL Hearts v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.20 2.25
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Tamworth Tamworth 5.50 4.03 New Criteria
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38 Old Criteria
25/02/2012 League 1 Oldham v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.39 New Criteria
25/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Walsall Walsall 3.60 2.57 New Criteria
25/02/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.90 Old Criteria
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98 New Criteria
25/02/2012 Premiership West Brom v Sunderland West Brom 2.45 1.73 New Criteria
25/02/2012 SPL Hearts v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.20 2.25 New Criteria
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03 Old Criteria
25/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Aberdeen St Mirren 2.50 1.74 Old Criteria

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Tamworth Tamworth 5.50 4.03 New Criteria
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38 Old Criteria
25/02/2012 League 1 Oldham v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.39 New Criteria
25/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Walsall Walsall 3.60 2.57 New Criteria
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98 New Criteria
25/02/2012 Premiership QPR v Fulham QPR 2.70 1.90 Old Criteria
25/02/2012 Premiership West Brom v Sunderland West Brom 2.45 1.73 New Criteria
25/02/2012 SPL Hearts v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.20 2.25 New Criteria
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03 Old Criteria

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Tamworth Tamworth 5.50 4.03 New Criteria
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38 Old Criteria
25/02/2012 League 1 Oldham v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.39 New Criteria
25/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Walsall Walsall 3.60 2.57 New Criteria
25/02/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.90 Old Criteria
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98 New Criteria
25/02/2012 Premiership QPR v Fulham QPR 2.70 1.90 Old Criteria
25/02/2012 Premiership West Brom v Sunderland West Brom 2.45 1.73 New Criteria
25/02/2012 SPL Hearts v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.20 2.25 New Criteria
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03 Old Criteria
25/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Aberdeen St Mirren 2.50 1.74 Old Criteria

Confidence is ebbing away slowly.....

2012-02-22T10:55:00.003Z

Having been in this exact position 12 months ago, I always wondered what I’d be like if I saw the same things happening again. After last night, I think I’m pretty safe to say that my bottle is starting to go a little bit and the confidence in the systems is sinking fast. Of course, there are people reading this who will be thinking it’s a massive overreaction to a poor run of results and if you analyse things, it could easily have been better than it has turned out recently but if I’m honest, not sure much of this matters to me. At the end of the day, you need to have confidence in what you are doing and at the moment, based on my experiences from last season, my confidence is declining pretty quickly.

It’s the one topic I’ve discussed most on the blog since its inception and I actually covered it in depth at the start of January in this post, so I’m not going to go into depth about last season again. http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/2012/01/elephant-in-room.html

The question is, what do I do about it? As mentioned before on the blog, two of the guys following from last season changed tact for the second half of this season. One person stopped betting on the systems completely and is waiting for September before getting involved again and someone else switched to AH betting on all Aways. I dropped the AH switcher a quick email last night to see how he’s doing and he said things are still going pretty smoothly and he’s really happy he made that decision.

Deep down, I really hope these two guys regret their decision big time (I know they won’t mind me saying that!) and I hope they miss out on a lot of profits in the second half of the season. If this happens, I don’t actually think they’ll mind too much as they were able to justify their decision to themselves through the fact they lost a lot of money in the second half of last season.

I suspect out of everyone who followed the systems last season, I lost the most money in the second half of the season though and therefore, I’m possibly scarred the most out of everyone following the systems. Therefore, the question I really need to ask myself is, how would I feel if that happened again to me?

Of course, none of us know what will happen between now and the season end and there is no guarantee that the past represents a good approximation for this season but at the moment, it’s all I have to go on.

I’ll give it some thought and decide what I do from next month. I may well decide to stop following the systems myself which would feel like a bit of a cop out and a waste of doing all the work but having lost nearly 5 figures last season (which was nearly all the profits from the first half of the season!), I don’t fancy taking a similar hit this year!

By stopping, I sort of put myself into a no lose situation. If the systems crash and burn again, I save myself some money. If the systems go on and pick up again and do well, others continue to make money and will be happy to subscribe to get the bets next season. Hence, I can diversify the risk. If I continue betting and lose £5k+ and people lose money and don’t subscribe, then I’ve done a lot of work and lost a lot of money for nothing.

Anyway, that’s for me to ponder between now and next month. I’ll follow the next couple of sets of bets and then decide what to do.

Onto last night. After 10 minutes last night, the 3 biggest price teams were all 1-0 up and I hoped things were about to turn. Unfortunately, all 3 went on to lose 2-1!

I don’t doubt that my ratings are still finding value bets but for whatever reason, at some point in the season, teams who need to win at home manage to pull out the win (even though they are underpriced!) and ultimately, it hurts my systems’ performance. The 3 away sides last night all outperformed their odds I think and gave the favourites a run for their money but at the end of the day, the favourites needed the win to stay in the hunt for promotion whereas the mid table teams didn’t really need the win and more often than not, I think this psychological aspect buggers up my value ratings in the second half of the season!

Algorithm one had 9 bets, 3 winners, 1 draw and 5 losers. A loss of 1.95pts for H/A betting and a loss of 2.95pts for DNB.

Algorithm two had 8 bets, 2 winners, 1 draw and 5 losers. A loss of 4.05pts for H/A betting and a loss of 4.18pts for DNB.

Algorithm three had 9 bets, 3 winners, 1 draw and 5 losers. A profit of 0.21pts for H/A betting and a loss of 1.37pts for DNB.

The established systems lost 15.05pts for H/A betting and lost 11.30pts for DNB.

The newer systems lost 11.64pts for H/A betting and lost 15.30pts for DNB.

Another poor night I’m afraid. Looking quickly, since Jan 1st, there have 12 betting days and only 3 of these have been profitable for the systems. 75% of the betting days have been loss making! That probably explains why I’m starting to worry but hopefully things will turn soon!

I’ll post the weekend bets on the blog on Friday at 6pm.

Tonight's Bets

2012-02-21T09:00:00.001Z

Here's the bets for tonight.

Biggest bet is Rotherham away to Gillingham. Rotherham appear to be in much better form recently and should be favourites for this one. Let's hope the game pans out as we hope!

Good luck.

The Football Analyst Bets for 21st February

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 Bsq Prem Bath v Hayes Bath 2.00 1.46
21/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.56 5.01
21/02/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Southend Aldershot 3.10 2.22
21/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Accrington Accrington 3.10 2.18
21/02/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.90 2.08
21/02/2012 League 2 Northampton v Macclesfield Northampton 2.02 1.44
21/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Barnet Barnet 5.10 3.74
21/02/2012 League 2 Swindon v Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 4.82 3.50
21/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Kilmarnock Dundee Utd 1.93 1.38

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.90 2.08

System 8
None

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 Bsq Prem Bath v Hayes Bath 2.00 1.46
21/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.56 5.01
21/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Accrington Accrington 3.10 2.18
21/02/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.90 2.08
21/02/2012 League 2 Northampton v Macclesfield Northampton 2.02 1.44
21/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Barnet Barnet 5.10 3.74
21/02/2012 League 2 Swindon v Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 4.82 3.50
21/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Kilmarnock Dundee Utd 1.93 1.38

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.90 2.08

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 Bsq Prem Bath v Hayes Bath 2.00 1.46
21/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.56 5.01
21/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Accrington Accrington 3.10 2.18
21/02/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.90 2.08
21/02/2012 League 2 Northampton v Macclesfield Northampton 2.02 1.44
21/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Barnet Barnet 5.10 3.74
21/02/2012 League 2 Swindon v Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 4.82 3.50
21/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Kilmarnock Dundee Utd 1.93 1.38

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.90 2.08

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.90 2.08

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.90 2.08

System 8-21
None

System 8-22
None

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 Bsq Prem Bath v Hayes Bath 2.00 1.46
21/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.56 5.01
21/02/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Walsall Walsall 4.18 3.03
21/02/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Southend Aldershot 3.10 2.22
21/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Accrington Accrington 3.10 2.18
21/02/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.90 2.08
21/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Barnet Barnet 5.10 3.74
21/02/2012 League 2 Swindon v Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 4.82 3.50
21/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Kilmarnock Dundee Utd 1.93 1.38

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Barnet Barnet 5.10 3.74
21/02/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Walsall Walsall 4.18 3.03

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Barnet Barnet 5.10 3.74

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Barnet Barnet 5.10 3.74

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 Bsq Prem Bath v Hayes Bath 2.00 1.46
21/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.56 5.01
21/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Accrington Accrington 3.10 2.18
21/02/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.90 2.08
21/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Barnet Barnet 5.10 3.74
21/02/2012 League 2 Swindon v Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 4.82 3.50
21/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Kilmarnock Dundee Utd 1.93 1.38

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 Bsq Prem Bath v Hayes Bath 2.00 1.46
21/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.56 5.01
21/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Accrington Accrington 3.10 2.18
21/02/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.90 2.08
21/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Barnet Barnet 5.10 3.74
21/02/2012 League 2 Swindon v Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 4.82 3.50
21/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Kilmarnock Dundee Utd 1.93 1.38

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 Bsq Prem Bath v Hayes Bath 2.00 1.46 New Criteria
21/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.56 5.01 Old Criteria
21/02/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.90 2.08 New Criteria
21/02/2012 League 2 Northampton v Macclesfield Northampton 2.02 1.44 New Criteria
21/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Barnet Barnet 5.10 3.74 Old Criteria
21/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Kilmarnock Dundee Utd 1.93 1.38 New Criteria

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 Bsq Prem Bath v Hayes Bath 2.00 1.46 New Criteria
21/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.56 5.01 Old Criteria
21/02/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.90 2.08 New Criteria
21/02/2012 League 2 Northampton v Macclesfield Northampton 2.02 1.44 New Criteria
21/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Barnet Barnet 5.10 3.74 Old Criteria
21/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Kilmarnock Dundee Utd 1.93 1.38 New Criteria

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 Bsq Prem Bath v Hayes Bath 2.00 1.46 New Criteria
21/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.56 5.01 Old Criteria
21/02/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Walsall Walsall 4.18 3.03 New Criteria
21/02/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Southend Aldershot 3.10 2.22 New Criteria
21/02/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.90 2.08 New Criteria
21/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Barnet Barnet 5.10 3.74 Old Criteria
21/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Kilmarnock Dundee Utd 1.93 1.38 New Criteria

I can live without this variance!

2012-02-19T23:19:00.004Z

Before I get onto the disappointing weekend results, a few comments on what’s going on behind the scenes at the moment as I think this weekend helps to show why I’m never standing still at this game.

Although it’s not been mentioned on the blog, I’m working on a blueprint as to how to improve The Football Analyst service. I don’t want to go into depth at the moment as we’re still a long way from finishing this season but one thing that will be looked at during the summer is AH betting. I think if you look at my post on Friday and the results at the weekend, you can understand why this needs to be looked at.

Clearly, for the majority of systems, AH betting won’t improve them and therefore, when I discuss AH betting, it’s not aimed at every system or every bet I have. Instead, I’m thinking about a particular group of bets that are thrown up as value by my ratings.

As I said on Friday, I had 42 system bets at odds of 5.0+ this weekend. As it turns out, Lincoln conceded a 92nd minute equaliser which effectively meant 42pts were lost on these games. If Lincoln had held on, it would have been a 4.8pt profit on these bets rather than a 42pt loss, so that late goal was very, very costly. Put this fact to one side though for the moment.

Do I really want to be betting on so many teams at 5.0+? Do I enjoy backing teams I don’t think will win and do others enjoy this? I suspect the answer is no. Of course, in the long-term, these games are profitable on the systems and can achieve an ROI of 10%+ no problem at all, so they are profitable games to bet on. However, they do add a helluva lot of variance to the systems they appear on and simply, I suspect they undermine the performance of the systems as the capital needed (betting bank) to play these bets means that the return on capital you achieve is understated even though the ROI may be quite decent.

Is there a way around this? Well, yeah, Asian Hanidcaps would do the job I suspect.

Taking the odds at kick-off and the strategy I would employ if betting on AH’s, the AH and odds for each team (taken from Odds Portal) was:

Lincoln -0.5 at odds of 2.20
Oldham -0.75 at odds 2.09
Preston -1.25 at odds of 2.01
St Mirren -0.5 at odds of 2.16
Tamworth -1.25 at odds of 2.08

From the 5 bets, 2 would have returned full winners (Lincoln and St Mirren) and Preston would have been a ½ winner. The other two were losers. Therefore, a profit was made on these games.

As I discussed in a recent post, http://www.the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/2012/02/roi-for-show-roc-for-dough.html , I actually don’t think AH betting will increase the returns of the systems. Actually, from the work I’ve done, I can guarantee you this won’t happen. However, they can provide a much smoother journey to profitability and hopefully, a better return on capital that can be achieved in the long-run. You will however sacrifice the ROI that will be achieved but as that post says, ROI isn’t everything in this game.

Anyway, I thought it was worth mentioning that there is work going on in the background where I’m looking to improve the performance of the systems. Of course, some people may not mind backing big prices and suffering bad losing runs but achieving a decent profit in the long-run but for me personally, I can live without this sort of variance in my profit and loss account!

Onto the weekend. It was a shocker really although if Lincoln had held on, it would have been a break-even weekend. I can’t recall another goal this season that sickened me as much as this one did but I’m sure it won’t be the last bad beat we get at this game.

Algorithm one had 15 bets, only hit 3 winners, 4 draws but a massive 8 losers. A nightmare day. A loss of 8.59pts for H/A betting and a loss of 6.38pts for DNB betting.

Unfortunately, algorithm two found exactly the same bets as algorithm one this weekend, so it was the same performance again!

Algorithm three had 18 bets, 5 winners, 4 draws and 9 losers. Another nightmare. A loss of 5.34pts for H/A betting and a loss of 4.9pts for DNB betting.

Overall, a disaster of a day again for my ratings and base systems. Fortunately, the only good thing that happened this weekend was the more selective combined systems again showed why they are the best football systems on the planet at the moment (in my humble opinion of course!)

System 7 managed to take the 15 bets and narrow them down to 4 bets. It hit 3 winners and a draw. An amazing performance! System 8 did its job by taking these 4 bets and narrowing them down to 2 bets. 2 winners.

System 22 did well too by narrowing the 15 bets down to 2 bets and finding one winner.

Therefore, the systems did a great job in limiting the damage this weekend.

The established system lost 10.95pts for H/A betting and lost 11.63pts for DNB betting.

A special mention has to be made for the fact systems 6-22 to 8-22 managed to make a profit in the face of one of the worst performances for my base ratings this season! Not bad going if you happen to follow these systems. I noticed Malcolm across at http://mybettinglife.blogspot.com/ seemed fairly happy with his portfolio of 4 systems yesterday.

The new systems couldn’t quite limit the damage anywhere near as well as the established systems. A loss of 30.52pts for H/A betting and a loss of 23.64pts for DNB betting.

Overall, not a day I’m proud of but then again, with the high average odds overall, you need a few breaks to go your way and unfortunately, it didn’t happen this weekend.

Overall, the systems are well down on the month overall although the combined systems 6-22 to 8-22 are all in profit this month. 6-21 is down 13pts which is pulling down the overall performance of the 6 combined systems but I can’t really complain. It could have been a disaster of a month to date as the ratings are well off the mark at the moment but hopefully they’ll get back on track in midweek.

Bets will be posted on here at 9am on Tuesday.

High volatility weekend?

2012-02-17T18:00:00.000Z

A very busy weekend coming up with a very high average odds overall (3.95), so it does scream high volatility if I’m honest. I suspect it could be a rollercoaster and if all of the big priced selection lose (as they are meant to do most of the time), it could well be a nightmare weekend. If I’m honest, I much prefer the weekends where we have a good mixture of Homes and Aways and especially where we have a lot of well fancied Aways as I sort of live with the fact that most weekends will be a +50p or -50pt weekend at best and worst case scenarios. I can live with that fairly comfortably.

This weekend, there are 42 system bets at odds of 5+, so it could easily (very easily!) be -42pts on these, so the variance on a weekend like this is always going to be massive. Of course, if a couple win, it will be huge profits on these bets and therefore, I reckon this weekend could be anywhere from -100pts to +100pts!

The biggest game for the systems is Aldershot. I have them a good bit shorter away from home against a very out of form Macclesfield who have lost 6 on the spin (barely managed shots on target) and are currently the most out of form team in the league on my ratings. Aldershot appear to be improving on all recent form and according to my ratings, they should be too good for Macclesfield here. We’ll see what happens.

Good luck and I’ll be back on Sunday evening with the results update.

The Football Analyst Bets for 17th-19th February

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Gateshead Gateshead 2.88 2.02
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Lincoln Lincoln 5.20 3.86
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Luton v Tamworth Tamworth 10.00 8.00
18/02/2012 Championship Peterborough v Bristol City Bristol City 3.15 2.24
18/02/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Coventry Notts Forest 1.91 1.38
17/02/2012 Championship Reading v Burnley Burnley 4.33 3.09
18/02/2012 League 1 Exeter v Bury Bury 3.20 2.27
18/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Oldham Oldham 6.50 4.87
18/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Preston Preston 7.23 5.54
18/02/2012 League 1 Walsall v Wycombe Wycombe 3.58 2.55
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94
18/02/2012 League 2 Southend v Crewe Southend 1.75 1.30
18/02/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.22
19/02/2012 SPL Aberdeen v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.30 2.30
18/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v St Mirren St Mirren 5.00 3.69

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Coventry Notts Forest 1.91 1.38
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94
18/02/2012 League 2 Southend v Crewe Southend 1.75 1.30
18/02/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.22

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94
18/02/2012 League 2 Southend v Crewe Southend 1.75 1.30

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Gateshead Gateshead 2.88 2.02
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Lincoln Lincoln 5.20 3.86
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Luton v Tamworth Tamworth 10.00 8.00
18/02/2012 Championship Peterborough v Bristol City Bristol City 3.15 2.24
18/02/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Coventry Notts Forest 1.91 1.38
17/02/2012 Championship Reading v Burnley Burnley 4.33 3.09
18/02/2012 League 1 Exeter v Bury Bury 3.20 2.27
18/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Oldham Oldham 6.50 4.87
18/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Preston Preston 7.23 5.54
18/02/2012 League 1 Walsall v Wycombe Wycombe 3.58 2.55
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94
18/02/2012 League 2 Southend v Crewe Southend 1.75 1.30
18/02/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.22
19/02/2012 SPL Aberdeen v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.30 2.30
18/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v St Mirren St Mirren 5.00 3.69

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Gateshead Gateshead 2.88 2.02
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Gateshead Gateshead 2.88 2.02
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Lincoln Lincoln 5.20 3.86
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Luton v Tamworth Tamworth 10.00 8.00
18/02/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Coventry Notts Forest 1.91 1.38
18/02/2012 Championship Peterborough v Bristol City Bristol City 3.15 2.24
17/02/2012 Championship Reading v Burnley Burnley 4.33 3.09
18/02/2012 League 1 Exeter v Bury Bury 3.20 2.27
18/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Oldham Oldham 6.50 4.87
18/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Preston Preston 7.23 5.54
18/02/2012 League 1 Walsall v Wycombe Wycombe 3.58 2.55
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94
18/02/2012 League 2 Southend v Crewe Southend 1.75 1.30
18/02/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.22
19/02/2012 SPL Aberdeen v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.30 2.30
18/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v St Mirren St Mirren 5.00 3.69

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Gateshead Gateshead 2.88 2.02
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Coventry Notts Forest 1.91 1.38
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94
18/02/2012 League 2 Southend v Crewe Southend 1.75 1.30
18/02/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.22

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94
18/02/2012 League 2 Southend v Crewe Southend 1.75 1.30

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Lincoln Lincoln 5.20 3.86
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Luton v Tamworth Tamworth 10.00 8.00
18/02/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Watford Watford 3.43 2.41
18/02/2012 Championship Ipswich v Cardiff Ipswich 2.75 1.98
18/02/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Coventry Notts Forest 1.91 1.38
18/02/2012 Championship Peterborough v Bristol City Bristol City 3.15 2.24
17/02/2012 Championship Reading v Burnley Burnley 4.33 3.09
18/02/2012 League 1 Exeter v Bury Bury 3.20 2.27
18/02/2012 League 1 Leyton Orient v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.49
18/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Oldham Oldham 6.50 4.87
18/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Preston Preston 7.23 5.54
18/02/2012 League 1 Walsall v Wycombe Wycombe 3.58 2.55
18/02/2012 League 2 Barnet v Shrewsbury Barnet 3.23 2.28
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94
18/02/2012 League 2 Southend v Crewe Southend 1.75 1.30
18/02/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.22
19/02/2012 SPL Aberdeen v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.30 2.30
18/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v St Mirren St Mirren 5.00 3.69

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Watford Watford 3.43 2.41
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94
19/02/2012 SPL Aberdeen v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.30 2.30

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94
19/02/2012 SPL Aberdeen v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.30 2.30

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Lincoln Lincoln 5.20 3.86
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Luton v Tamworth Tamworth 10.00 8.00
18/02/2012 Championship Peterborough v Bristol City Bristol City 3.15 2.24
18/02/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Coventry Notts Forest 1.91 1.38
17/02/2012 Championship Reading v Burnley Burnley 4.33 3.09
18/02/2012 League 1 Exeter v Bury Bury 3.20 2.27
18/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Oldham Oldham 6.50 4.87
18/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Preston Preston 7.23 5.54
18/02/2012 League 1 Walsall v Wycombe Wycombe 3.58 2.55
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94
18/02/2012 League 2 Southend v Crewe Southend 1.75 1.30
18/02/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.22
19/02/2012 SPL Aberdeen v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.30 2.30
18/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v St Mirren St Mirren 5.00 3.69

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Lincoln Lincoln 5.20 3.86
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Luton v Tamworth Tamworth 10.00 8.00
18/02/2012 Championship Peterborough v Bristol City Bristol City 3.15 2.24
18/02/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Coventry Notts Forest 1.91 1.38
17/02/2012 Championship Reading v Burnley Burnley 4.33 3.09
18/02/2012 League 1 Exeter v Bury Bury 3.20 2.27
18/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Oldham Oldham 6.50 4.87
18/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Preston Preston 7.23 5.54
18/02/2012 League 1 Walsall v Wycombe Wycombe 3.58 2.55
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94
18/02/2012 League 2 Southend v Crewe Southend 1.75 1.30
18/02/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.22
19/02/2012 SPL Aberdeen v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.30 2.30
18/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v St Mirren St Mirren 5.00 3.69

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Gateshead Gateshead 2.88 2.02 New Criteria
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Lincoln Lincoln 5.20 3.86 Old Criteria
18/02/2012 Championship Peterborough v Bristol City Bristol City 3.15 2.24 New Criteria
18/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Oldham Oldham 6.50 4.87 Old Criteria
18/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Preston Preston 7.23 5.54 Old Criteria
18/02/2012 League 1 Walsall v Wycombe Wycombe 3.58 2.55 New Criteria
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94 New Criteria
18/02/2012 League 2 Southend v Crewe Southend 1.75 1.30 Old Criteria
18/02/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.22 New Criteria
18/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v St Mirren St Mirren 5.00 3.69 Old Criteria

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Gateshead Gateshead 2.88 2.02 New Criteria
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Lincoln Lincoln 5.20 3.86 Old Criteria
18/02/2012 Championship Peterborough v Bristol City Bristol City 3.15 2.24 New Criteria
18/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Oldham Oldham 6.50 4.87 Old Criteria
18/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Preston Preston 7.23 5.54 Old Criteria
18/02/2012 League 1 Walsall v Wycombe Wycombe 3.58 2.55 New Criteria
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94 New Criteria
18/02/2012 League 2 Southend v Crewe Southend 1.75 1.30 Old Criteria
18/02/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.22 New Criteria
18/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v St Mirren St Mirren 5.00 3.69 Old Criteria

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Gateshead Gateshead 2.88 2.02 New Criteria
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Lincoln Lincoln 5.20 3.86 Old Criteria
18/02/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Watford Watford 3.43 2.41 New Criteria
18/02/2012 Championship Ipswich v Cardiff Ipswich 2.75 1.98 New Criteria
18/02/2012 Championship Peterborough v Bristol City Bristol City 3.15 2.24 New Criteria
18/02/2012 League 1 Leyton Orient v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.49 Old Criteria
18/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Oldham Oldham 6.50 4.87 Old Criteria
18/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Preston Preston 7.23 5.54 Old Criteria
18/02/2012 League 1 Walsall v Wycombe Wycombe 3.58 2.55 New Criteria
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94 New Criteria
18/02/2012 League 2 Southend v Crewe Southend 1.75 1.30 Old Criteria
18/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v St Mirren St Mirren 5.00 3.69 Old Criteria

Bets will appear at 6pm

2012-02-17T10:01:00.000Z

A very quick post to say tonight’s bets will appear at 6pm on here. There is a bet in tonight’s match which some of you may be following.

I’ve had a couple of requests for more consistency on the blog around when I release the bets. It’s a fair comment as I was basically posting at random times on a Friday evening!

For the remainder of this season, all bets will appear on the blog at 6pm on a Friday evening for the weekend and 9am on a Tuesday morning for midweek bets. This gives my email subscribers nearly 24 hours for the weekend bets and over 12 hours for the midweek bets. Should be ample time to get the bets on I hope.

Good luck.

Καλώς ήρθατε στην ελληνική φίλους μου

2012-02-15T14:04:00.001Z

Apologies to my Greek readers if the title of the post doesn’t make sense!

I received a comment a few posts back from a reader called Tasos saying ‘We love you’. I clicked on his name (as you would do when someone declares love for you!) and it took me to a betting site but unfortunately, it was written in Greek! I could see that something had been posted regarding my blog as it had a link to it but even with Google translation, I couldn’t understand what the post was saying.

I figured it had said something good as the blog has received an unbelievable amount of hits from Greece in the last couple of days.

I’ve since received a comment this morning from Markos who kindly informed me that the link was on a Greek betting site and it said that my blog was one of the best betting blogs. Wouldn’t like to argue with that comment although it’s probably the best source of free football selections on the net, not necessarily the best blog. My blogs linked to better blogs than this but my blog’s not really a blog!

Anyway, it’s always nice to get some new readers and if any of you have any questions, please leave me a comment and I’ll get back to you.

Καλή τύχη

A bad night...or was it?

2012-02-15T13:23:00.008Z

I always find it hard to write a review after a night like last night. I lost money last night (only a small sum thankfully!) and anyone following the systems would have lost money last night, so it feels wrong to say it wasn’t a bad night but when I look at the results, I can’t help but feel it wasn’t a bad night!

Only one bet made it onto systems 7 and 8 and only one bet made it onto system 22, so basically, there were a lot of bets last night but none were really high value as I said before the games. Hence, I can’t get too annoyed when I see that the results weren’t great. What did I expect?

It’s a strange one as if last night turned out to be a great night, I’d have been really annoyed that more bets didn’t appear on more systems and it would have been an opportunity missed. Hence, when it goes badly, should I be saying the systems did a great job in reducing the exposure on the night? I tend to think so. Systems 7-22 and 8-22 had a great night last night in comparison to other systems. Why do these systems have ROI’s above 25% over the last season and a half? They manage to dodge nights like last night!

Anyway, onto more important matters, the results for the systems that did have bets.

Algorithm one had 14 bets, 4 winners, 4 draws and 6 losers. It managed to catch 2 good away winners which helps limit the losses though. A loss of 2.61pts for H/A betting and a loss of 1.79pts for DNB.

Algorithm two had 12 bets, 3 winners, 4 draws and 5 losers. A loss of 3.92pts for H/A betting and a loss of 2.14pts for DNB.

Algorithm three had 10 bets, 3 winners, 2 draws and 5 losers. A loss of 0.41pts for H/A betting and a loss of 1.11pts for DNB.

As usual, the system bets are what we are mostly interested in.

The established systems made a loss of 15.45pts for H/A betting and a loss of 10.07pts for DNB. Considering the poor performance of the first two algorithms, it could have been a lot worse than this if the systems had more bets!

The newer systems made a loss of 7.41pts for H/A betting and a loss of 5.79pts for DNB.

The newer systems were helped by the fact TOX and STOY managed to make a profit on the night (which was very difficult to do!). These 3 SMG systems remain an enigma to me in the sense they do seem to do well when my other systems struggle but they do badly when my other systems do well. One thing I will look at in the summer is seeing if these systems reduce the variance if combined with other systems. I expect they probably dovetail the other systems well but I’ve no evidence tbh.

Anyway, that’s it for this midweek. After the weekend and midweek games, February is loss making across the majority of systems and it starts to open up the possibility of a losing month. I sort of feel like the systems are due a losing month as it’s been a long-time since September although it has felt much more difficult since the end of November. December wasn’t great and neither was January, so hopefully February can get back on track this weekend.

ROI for show, ROC for dough......

2012-02-14T17:03:00.003Z

Just a really quick post to say that I’ve added another tab to the blog. I asked my email subscribers for feedback and two of them commented on the fact that it’s actually really difficult to know what the results are at any point in time.

http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/p/latest-system-results.html

I do daily results, monthly results and of course, I’ll spend a long time discussing the results at season end but I don’t actually have anywhere on the blog that shows the results to date for the season or even an easy place to see the results from last season. Being honest, it’s one of these things whereby when you’re so engrossed in something, you can’t see the wood for the trees.

I think one issue I’ve always had is that it’s difficult to find the best way to show the results. I’ve found a way I like though, so let me know if this does the trick. It should be big enough to read!

Now I see the results, I sort of want to add notation to say which systems are the established systems and new systems and which systems are the combined systems and lastly, which systems are SMG systems as ultimately, the new systems are making the returns look in line with last season but in reality, the systems from last season are doing better this season!

Anyway, I’ll leave the interpretation of the results to others.

What I would say (can’t resist a comment!) is that people spend a lot of time (and money!) trying to find a profitable football system to follow. I’ve got 20 systems on the go for this season and backing H/A, only one system is currently making a loss. Backing DNB, only one is losing.

As of today, there have been 5,839 bets proofed to the SBC (as well as on this blog) and it has resulted in a profit of 550pts. Sounds OK but in reality, I think you only understand the overall results if you look at the individual system results.

One thing that is always interesting for me personally with having so many systems is trying to understand what people do with the bets. I was interested to read on the http://green-pullover.blogspot.com/ blog that the author has developed his own way to play some of the system bets. He won’t be surprised to learn that he’s not alone with doing this and I now know of at least 10+ ways people are playing the bets. That’s not including me!

I’ve sort of recorded the ways people have told me they are playing and come season end, it will be interesting to see which ways produce the highest return on capital. I could have said ROI but ROC is a much better measure of success for a gambling system in my opinion.

An easy example can be seen from this season. System 7-22 has a profit of 17.6pts if backing the team to win outright and a profit of 9.3pts if following DNB (covering the draw). Since there have been 52 bets this season on the system, H/A has an ROI of 33.9% and DNB has an ROI of 17.9%. Clearly, backing the teams to win outright is a better system isn’t it?

Well, let’s look at the suggested banks for each strategy. If backing outright, I suggested a bank of 40pts. If backing DNB, I suggested a bank of 20pts. The rationale being that the worst drawdown for H/A is 16pts and the worst drawdown for DNB is 8pts. Hence, using a multiplier of 2.5, I came up with these banks. Obviously, I know 2.5 is very conservative and I don’t use as big a multiplier as that and I’m guessing many others don’t do but let’s just keep this simple!

What is the return on capital? Well, H/A has made a ROC of 44% and DNB has made a ROC of 46.5%.

Would you rather have a higher ROI or a higher ROC?

Of course, the reason people don’t get too bogged down with ROC is at the end of the day, many people gambling don’t sit with the full betting bank suggested waiting on a drawdown. In addition, calculating the ‘correct’ betting bank is nearly impossible.

Someone could say that a ROC of 44% is nowhere near as good as that offered by another tipster or another system. Of course, if I said that the betting bank needed for H/A was only 20pts, then my ROC this season is now 88% and looking much better! Hence, it’s a subjective measure and not one that can be compared with other gambling opportunities easily but something worth considering when developing a strategy with my systems.

Tonight's Bets

2012-02-14T09:00:00.000Z

A lack of high value bets tonight I'm afraid although there are plenty of bets thrown up. I just won't be backing too many of them with anything above minimum stakes!

Good luck.

The Football Analyst Bets for 14th February

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 Bsq Prem Newport v Bath Bath 4.75 3.43
14/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Millwall Millwall 4.01 2.83
14/02/2012 Championship Bristol City v Crystal Palace Bristol City 2.41 1.68
14/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Tranmere Tranmere 5.00 3.66
14/02/2012 League 1 Charlton v MK Dons MK Dons 3.75 2.68
14/02/2012 League 1 Notts Co v Exeter Notts Co 1.80 1.32
14/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Hartlepool Hartlepool 3.40 2.45
14/02/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Rochdale Rochdale 3.60 2.60
14/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Stevenage Stevenage 4.33 3.14
14/02/2012 League 1 Wycombe v Yeovil Yeovil 3.31 2.36
14/02/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Hereford Aldershot 1.95 1.40
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22
14/02/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Barnet Barnet 3.00 2.14
14/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.75 3.49

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 Bsq Prem Newport v Bath Bath 4.75 3.43
14/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Millwall Millwall 4.01 2.83
14/02/2012 Championship West Ham v Southampton Southampton 3.50 2.47
14/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Tranmere Tranmere 5.00 3.66
14/02/2012 League 1 Charlton v MK Dons MK Dons 3.75 2.68
14/02/2012 League 1 Notts Co v Exeter Notts Co 1.80 1.32
14/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Hartlepool Hartlepool 3.40 2.45
14/02/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Rochdale Rochdale 3.60 2.60
14/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Stevenage Stevenage 4.33 3.14
14/02/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Hereford Aldershot 1.95 1.40
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22
14/02/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Barnet Barnet 3.00 2.14

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Barnet Barnet 3.00 2.14

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Hereford Aldershot 1.95 1.40
14/02/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Barnet Barnet 3.00 2.14
14/02/2012 Bsq Prem Newport v Bath Bath 4.75 3.43
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22
14/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Hartlepool Hartlepool 3.40 2.45
14/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Millwall Millwall 4.01 2.83
14/02/2012 League 1 Charlton v MK Dons MK Dons 3.75 2.68
14/02/2012 League 1 Notts Co v Exeter Notts Co 1.80 1.32
14/02/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Rochdale Rochdale 3.60 2.60
14/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Stevenage Stevenage 4.33 3.14
14/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Tranmere Tranmere 5.00 3.66

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Barnet Barnet 3.00 2.14

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22

System 7-22
None

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22

System 8-22
None

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 Bsq Prem Newport v Bath Bath 4.75 3.43
14/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Millwall Millwall 4.01 2.83
14/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Tranmere Tranmere 5.00 3.66
14/02/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Rochdale Rochdale 3.60 2.60
14/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Stevenage Stevenage 4.33 3.14
14/02/2012 League 1 Wycombe v Yeovil Yeovil 3.31 2.36
14/02/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Hereford Aldershot 1.95 1.40
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22
14/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Dagenham Dagenham 6.50 4.88
14/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.75 3.49

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Millwall Millwall 4.01 2.83
14/02/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Rochdale Rochdale 3.60 2.60
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Millwall Millwall 4.01 2.83
14/02/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Rochdale Rochdale 3.60 2.60
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Hereford Aldershot 1.95 1.40
14/02/2012 Bsq Prem Newport v Bath Bath 4.75 3.43
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22
14/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Millwall Millwall 4.01 2.83
14/02/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Rochdale Rochdale 3.60 2.60
14/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Stevenage Stevenage 4.33 3.14
14/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Tranmere Tranmere 5.00 3.66

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Hereford Aldershot 1.95 1.40
14/02/2012 Bsq Prem Newport v Bath Bath 4.75 3.43
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22
14/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Millwall Millwall 4.01 2.83
14/02/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Rochdale Rochdale 3.60 2.60
14/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Stevenage Stevenage 4.33 3.14
14/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Tranmere Tranmere 5.00 3.66

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Hereford Aldershot 1.95 1.40 Old Criteria
14/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Stevenage Stevenage 4.33 3.14 Old Criteria
14/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Tranmere Tranmere 5.00 3.66 Old Criteria
14/02/2012 League 1 Notts Co v Exeter Notts Co 1.80 1.32 Old Criteria
14/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Hartlepool Hartlepool 3.40 2.45 New Criteria
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22 New Criteria
14/02/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Barnet Barnet 3.00 2.14 New Criteria

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Hereford Aldershot 1.95 1.40 Old Criteria
14/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Stevenage Stevenage 4.33 3.14 Old Criteria
14/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Tranmere Tranmere 5.00 3.66 Old Criteria
14/02/2012 League 1 Notts Co v Exeter Notts Co 1.80 1.32 Old Criteria
14/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Hartlepool Hartlepool 3.40 2.45 New Criteria
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22 New Criteria
14/02/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Barnet Barnet 3.00 2.14 New Criteria

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Hereford Aldershot 1.95 1.40 Old Criteria
14/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Stevenage Stevenage 4.33 3.14 Old Criteria
14/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Tranmere Tranmere 5.00 3.66 Old Criteria
14/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Dagenham Dagenham 6.50 4.88 Old Criteria
14/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.75 3.49 Old Criteria
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22 New Criteria
14/02/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Barnet Barnet 3.00 2.14 New Criteria

Results Update

2012-02-12T22:59:00.002Z

A quick update tonight as it’s been a long week and I’m back to work tomorrow.

A strange weekend really as there were 7 teams thrown up as value across the 3 algorithms but in reality, the only game that mattered this weekend was always going to be the West Brom game as I said on Friday night. Only one of the 7 games resulted in the systems finding a winner this weekend…..thankfully, it was the game that mattered and boy, did West Brom win that game. It was actually 5-1 going on about 10-2 and as I said on Friday, my ratings had West Brom down as a class above Wolves at the moment and I think the gap in class was apparent from the first whistle.

I backed West Brom at odds of 3.20 and just before kick-off, they were about 2.80 on Betfair I think which was much closer to where they were meant to be. Having watched the game, I’d say I had them overpriced myself as from the first whistle, they always looked the much more likely team to win.

Thankfully, the game helped win back the losses from Saturday as it was a poor day on Saturday.

Algorithm one had 5 bets, 1 winner, 3 draws and 1 loser. A loss of 1.9pts for H/A but a profit of 0.19pts for DNB.

Algorithm two had 4 bets, 1 winner, 2 draws and 1 loser. A loss of 0.9pts for H/A but a profit of 0.19pts for DNB.

Algorithm three had 5 bets, 3 draws and 2 losers. A loss of 5pts for H/A and a loss of 2pts for DNB.

Not exactly a pretty set of results for the base algorithms but as always, the systems tell the story of the weekend.

The established systems made a profit of 13.10pts for H/A and 10.07pts for DNB. The combined systems were the major winner in that set of systems with a profit of 9.6pts from 9 games (6.13pts for DNB).

The new systems made a loss of 8.7pts for H/A and a loss of 0.44pts for DNB.

The winners were actually the SGM systems who made a profit of 1.1pts for H/A and 1.19pts for DNB on each of the 3 systems.

Overall then, depending on the systems you follow, it could easily have been a profitable weekend or a losing weekend. Those following the combined systems probably had an OK weekend again I hope.

I’ll be back on Tuesday morning with the bets for midweek.

Quieter Weekend

2012-02-10T21:30:00.002Z

(I've not edited the below post for the fact most of the games are postponed. If you are following, check the games are on first before looking to place the bets!)

It’s a quieter weekend than I thought it would be when I first looked at the ratings and the games first thing yesterday morning. However, a lot of the marginal value bets got dropped as the odds reduced throughout the day and by the time I issued the bets at 7pm, a fair number had been chopped from the system bets as the value was gone. This is never ideal as I can’t help but feel like I’m missing out but at the end of the day, this game is all about value at a point in time.

A team that is available at 7/2 may be a marginal value bet but at 3/1, I can pass on them. Long-term, the 0.5pts add up and I’ve been playing this game long enough to know that I can’t go chasing lower odds on teams.

The biggest game this weekend is the West Brom game on Sunday. It’s a massive game for Mick McCarthy and Wolves and so many times over the past 3 season, Wolves have pulled it out at home in these sort of games. Hopefully they don’t pull it out on Sunday as they are facing a West Brom team who are playing a level above Wolves and look overpriced in this one according to my ratings.

Good luck and I’ll be back on Sunday night or early next week with the results.

Cheers,

Graeme

The Football Analyst Bets for 11th/12th February

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Barrow Cambridge 1.80 1.32
11/02/2012 Championship Hull v Bristol City Bristol City 5.48 3.95
11/02/2012 Championship Millwall v Derby Millwall 2.15 1.52
11/02/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Watford Notts Forest 2.25 1.60
11/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.15 4.69
11/02/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Carlisle Carlisle 4.11 2.99
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60
11/02/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.90 2.05
11/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 3.20 2.26
11/02/2012 League 2 Port Vale v Crewe Port Vale 2.05 1.50
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19
11/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Motherwell St Mirren 2.60 1.83

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Barrow Cambridge 1.80 1.32
11/02/2012 Championship Hull v Bristol City Bristol City 5.48 3.95
11/02/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Watford Notts Forest 2.25 1.60
11/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.15 4.69
11/02/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Carlisle Carlisle 4.11 2.99
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60
11/02/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.90 2.05
11/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 3.20 2.26
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19
11/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Motherwell St Mirren 2.60 1.83

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Barrow Cambridge 1.80 1.32
11/02/2012 Championship Hull v Bristol City Bristol City 5.48 3.95
11/02/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Watford Notts Forest 2.25 1.60
11/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.15 4.69
11/02/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Carlisle Carlisle 4.11 2.99
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60
11/02/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.90 2.05
11/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 3.20 2.26
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19
11/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Motherwell St Mirren 2.60 1.83

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Alfreton Alfreton 3.60 2.64
11/02/2012 Cahmpionship Barnsley v Birmingham Barnsley 3.93 2.83
11/02/2012 Cahmpionship Millwall v Derby Millwall 2.15 1.52
11/02/2012 Championship Hull v Bristol City Bristol City 5.48 3.95
11/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.15 4.69
11/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Wycombe Wycombe 9.00 7.12
11/02/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Carlisle Carlisle 4.11 2.99
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60
11/02/2012 League 2 Barnet v Swindon Barnet 4.33 3.11
11/02/2012 League 2 Crawley v Aldershot Aldershot 8.15 6.37
11/02/2012 League 2 Hereford v Cheltenham Hereford 4.33 3.12
11/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 3.20 2.26
11/02/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Bradford Bradford 3.10 2.22
11/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Motherwell St Mirren 2.60 1.83

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 Cahmpionship Millwall v Derby Millwall 2.15 1.52
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 Cahmpionship Millwall v Derby Millwall 2.15 1.52
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 Cahmpionship Millwall v Derby Millwall 2.15 1.52
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 Championship Hull v Bristol City Bristol City 5.48 3.95
11/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.15 4.69
11/02/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Carlisle Carlisle 4.11 2.99
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60
11/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 3.20 2.26
11/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Motherwell St Mirren 2.60 1.83

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 Championship Hull v Bristol City Bristol City 5.48 3.95
11/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.15 4.69
11/02/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Carlisle Carlisle 4.11 2.99
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60
11/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 3.20 2.26
11/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Motherwell St Mirren 2.60 1.83

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.15 4.69 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Carlisle Carlisle 4.11 2.99 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Motherwell St Mirren 2.60 1.83 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.90 2.05 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60 New Criteria
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19 New Criteria

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.15 4.69 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Carlisle Carlisle 4.11 2.99 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Motherwell St Mirren 2.60 1.83 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.90 2.05 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60 New Criteria
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19 New Criteria

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.15 4.69 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Carlisle Carlisle 4.11 2.99 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Motherwell St Mirren 2.60 1.83 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60 New Criteria
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19 New Criteria
11/02/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Alfreton Alfreton 3.60 2.64 New Criteria
11/02/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Bradford Bradford 3.10 2.22 New Criteria

Could have been a disaster.....

2012-02-09T13:55:00.002Z

I said last night that I wouldn't look in depth at the results I missed but once you start looking, it's so addictive, it's nearly impossible to stop!

Anyway, I've got nothing to lose by sharing the results on here. These obviously won't be used for anything but if any of you are following systems, you'll see what you missed by me being away.

The key game was the Chelsea v Man Utd game. Chelsea appeared on every system and if they had won, I'm not sure I'd have been so keen to share the results I missed. As it turns out, with them losing a 3 goal lead, it means that the more selective systems struggled to make any profits due to a lack of bets.

Interestingly, system 6-21 continued in the same form it was in before I left and missed out on a little profit in my absence. The combined systems missed out on around 4.4pts profit from 21 bets and that would have been my proofed results. As the title suggests, it's not a disaster but if Chelsea had won, it would have been!

That's me now up to date and starting to look at the weekend games now. Looks to be plenty of bets here, so they'll be on the blog tomorrow night.

I'm back....

2012-02-09T00:17:00.000Z

As the title post suggests, I’m now back from my honeymoon in Mexico. It was an amazing holiday and a great place to visit. Two weeks is long enough away though and I’m sort of glad to be home although having opened up my spreadsheets today to start to update the missing results of games, I’m starting to miss Mexico already!

I’ve updated the monthly review for January as promised before I left. You can read it here if you scroll down to the bottom of the page.

http://www.the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/p/201112-monthly-results.html

If any readers signed up to the trial I gave to SBC members over the Christmas period, I’ve sent out the results tonight along with an email. Apologies it’s late but it’s the first chance I’ve had really since I was away at the end of the trial.

I’ll finish updating the missing results in the next hour or so (I slept late yesterday (Wednesday) to make up for the jet lag as I was up for 36 hours straight on the way home!) and before I start looking at the games for this weekend, I want to take a quick look at the bets I would have had over the last two weeks.

I’m not going to go into depth on the blog about what the results would have been as at the end of the day, it makes no difference. If I missed a great period or a nightmare period, it isn’t going to affect the future results at all. However, I will take a quick look at the bets that we missed and determine whether it looked a good period or not. From reading Adam’s blog across at 2010 and beyond, I suspect it would have been a profitable period for my systems but I’ll check first thing tomorrow and do a quick post on the blog.

After that, it’s a case of getting back to business as usual and I’ll have a full set of system bets for this weekend. I’ll get these on the blog on Friday night although they’ll be sent out as usual on Thursday evening.

Thanks for the comments on the last post. Nice to see that I’ve still got some readers and it’s great that a few people have bothered to comment. All comments are always appreciated as I’ve said before.

OK, I’ll get back to work now looking at what happened in my absence……

No time for an acceptance speech.....

2012-01-21T22:30:00.002Z

My last post before I leave the blog for two weeks……

I noticed the post tonight on the excellent ‘The Market Examiner’ blog that Sam’s service had won a couple of awards in the Secret Betting Club 2011 tipster awards. Well done Sam! :)

Due to everything else going on this week with getting ready for going away, I’ve not had a chance to read the latest SBC magazine edition yet although I’d downloaded it earlier this week.

Anyway, I flicked through it tonight and I noticed that I’ve won an award too. :) Well, I say I but it is actually the systems. I just manage them.

I’ve won the bronze award in the category ‘Best Overall Sports Tipster of 2011 (Open to New Members)’

I feel slightly unfortunate in the sense that the calendar year 2011 wasn’t a great year for the systems if I’m honest (6.1% over the year) but I think if you look at the end of 2010 too, then I think it’s a fair award.

Here’s an update of my overall results that have been proofed by the SBC since the systems went live.

263pts profit across 1,596 bets to date at an ROI of 16.5%. If covering the draw, the profit is 186pts and an ROI of 11.7%.

I’ll be back in two weeks.

11th profitable month from 14 live months

2012-01-21T21:53:00.003Z

I obviously don’t have time to write a monthly review for January before I stop for a few weeks, I can’t help but post the monthly results for January. :)

I’ll write a detailed review when I’m back but in summary, it ended up a good month for the established systems overall and a great month for the new systems. Considering I was slagging off the new systems only 3 weeks ago, it has been a great comeback by these systems.

The established systems made a profit of 49pts for H/A betting (19.2pts for DNB) from 294 bets. Not the best month but considering how it looked before this weekend, it is great to have another profitable month.

The new systems excelled themselves this month with a profit of 85.9pts for H/A betting (44.8pts for DNB) from 288 bets. This is the best month these systems have had since Mar-11 (which was backtested), so the best results for these systems since they went live this season.

Overall, after today, January has turned out to be a decent month. My own portfolio has had a good month thanks to the newer systems if I’m honest, so I feel a little bad about giving them such a hard time a short while ago.

This is an amazing stat I think but 19 of the 20 systems are now in profit this season. The only system not in profit is system STOZ and it is only 1.5pts down after this weekend.

I’ll do the full monthly review when I’m back from my mid season break.

Today's Results

2012-01-21T21:32:00.003Z

Here are today’s results……

A profit of 51.92pts on the established systems for H/A betting and a profit of 36.60pts for DNB betting.

A profit on the single systems of 29.45pts for H/A betting and a profit of 21.40pts for DNB betting.

A profit on the combined systems of 22.47pts for H/A betting and a profit of 15.18pts for DNB betting.

Unlike the established systems, the new systems were already well in profit this month and finished the month well too.

A profit on the new systems of 42.74pts for H/A betting and a profit of 34.82pts for DNB betting.

Looking at the splits, systems 31-33 made a profit of 15.65pts for H/A and 10.29pts for DNB betting.

The combined systems made a profit of 14.44pts for H/A and 12.17pts for DNB betting.

The SGM systems made a profit of 12.65pts for H/A and 12.36pts for DNB betting.

Overall today, a profit of 94.66pts for H/A betting and a profit of 71.40pts for DNB betting.

Not too bad if I say so myself. :)

Next bets are in a couple of weeks.

Weekend Bets

2012-01-20T19:00:00.000Z

This will be the last bets posted on the blog for a couple of weeks. The next bets will be for the weekend of 11th February.

I may try to update the blog for the weekend results and monthly review before I head off on holiday on Sunday but I suspect this may be the last post until I return from holiday in two weeks.

It is a very busy weekend again this weekend. At the moment, it is odds on I suspect that we end up with a losing month (escaped last month with a profit!) for the systems. It has been a tough month overall again and very few systems are in profit. Of course, if tomorrow goes well, things can turn around but I prefer to always think things will be bad and then I’m always prepared for the outcome. ;)

A fair few home games tomorrow appear on a lot of systems. It is actually the lowest average odds on the systems for a few weeks, so I’ll need a higher strike rate than I’ve been seeing recently with the bets. Hitting a 25% strike rate is likely to lead to fairly substantial losses at these odds this weekend.

Anyway, if I don’t post again before my break, good luck for the next few weeks.

The Football Analyst Bets for 21st January
System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Stockport Stockport 4.10 2.96
21/01/2011 Championship Barnsley v Millwall Millwall 3.50 2.47
21/01/2011 Championship Birmingham v Watford Birmingham 1.73 1.28
21/01/2011 Championship Bristol City v Doncaster Bristol City 1.90 1.37
21/01/2011 Championship Burnley v Derby Burnley 1.84 1.33
21/01/2011 Championship Cardiff v Portsmouth Portsmouth 5.00 3.65
21/01/2011 Championship Reading v Hull Hull 4.00 2.86
21/01/2011 Championship West Ham v Notts Forest Notts Forest 5.96 4.51
21/01/2011 League 1 Bury v Yeovil Yeovil 3.75 2.71
21/01/2011 League 1 Charlton v Sheff Utd Sheff Utd 3.40 2.44
21/01/2011 League 1 Oldham v Exeter Exeter 4.20 3.00
21/01/2011 League 1 Preston v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 3.75 2.74
21/01/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Accrington Aldershot 2.63 1.86
21/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Burton Burton 3.30 2.41
21/01/2011 League 2 Crewe v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.71
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05
21/01/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Port Vale Port Vale 3.70 2.68
21/01/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Southend Southend 3.20 2.29
21/01/2011 Premiership Stoke v West Brom West Brom 4.33 3.11
21/01/2011 Premiership Sunderland v Swansea Sunderland 1.91 1.36
21/01/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v Motherwell Dundee Utd 2.25 1.61
21/01/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dunfermline Dunfermline 6.50 4.96

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Championship Birmingham v Watford Birmingham 1.73 1.28
21/01/2011 Championship Bristol City v Doncaster Bristol City 1.90 1.37
21/01/2011 Championship Burnley v Derby Burnley 1.84 1.33
21/01/2011 League 1 Oldham v Exeter Exeter 4.20 3.00
21/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Burton Burton 3.30 2.41
21/01/2011 League 2 Crewe v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.71
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05
21/01/2011 Premiership Stoke v West Brom West Brom 4.33 3.11

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Championship Birmingham v Watford Birmingham 1.73 1.28
21/01/2011 Championship Bristol City v Doncaster Bristol City 1.90 1.37
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Stockport Stockport 4.10 2.96
21/01/2011 Championship Barnsley v Millwall Millwall 3.50 2.47
21/01/2011 Championship Birmingham v Watford Birmingham 1.73 1.28
21/01/2011 Championship Bristol City v Doncaster Bristol City 1.90 1.37
21/01/2011 Championship Burnley v Derby Burnley 1.84 1.33
21/01/2011 Championship Cardiff v Portsmouth Portsmouth 5.00 3.65
21/01/2011 Championship West Ham v Notts Forest Notts Forest 5.96 4.51
21/01/2011 League 1 Bury v Yeovil Yeovil 3.75 2.71
21/01/2011 League 1 Charlton v Sheff Utd Sheff Utd 3.40 2.44
21/01/2011 League 1 Oldham v Exeter Exeter 4.20 3.00
21/01/2011 League 1 Preston v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 3.75 2.74
21/01/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Accrington Aldershot 2.63 1.86
21/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Burton Burton 3.30 2.41
21/01/2011 League 2 Crewe v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.71
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05
21/01/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Port Vale Port Vale 3.70 2.68
21/01/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Southend Southend 3.20 2.29
21/01/2011 Premiership Stoke v West Brom West Brom 4.33 3.11
21/01/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v Motherwell Dundee Utd 2.25 1.61
21/01/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dunfermline Dunfermline 6.50 4.96

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Championship Birmingham v Watford Birmingham 1.73 1.28
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Stockport Stockport 4.10 2.96
21/01/2011 Championship Barnsley v Millwall Millwall 3.50 2.47
21/01/2011 Championship Birmingham v Watford Birmingham 1.73 1.28
21/01/2011 Championship Bristol City v Doncaster Bristol City 1.90 1.37
21/01/2011 Championship Burnley v Derby Burnley 1.84 1.33
21/01/2011 Championship Cardiff v Portsmouth Portsmouth 5.00 3.65
21/01/2011 Championship West Ham v Notts Forest Notts Forest 5.96 4.51
21/01/2011 League 1 Bury v Yeovil Yeovil 3.75 2.71
21/01/2011 League 1 Charlton v Sheff Utd Sheff Utd 3.40 2.44
21/01/2011 League 1 Oldham v Exeter Exeter 4.20 3.00
21/01/2011 League 1 Preston v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 3.75 2.74
21/01/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Accrington Aldershot 2.63 1.86
21/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Burton Burton 3.30 2.41
21/01/2011 League 2 Crewe v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.71
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05
21/01/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Port Vale Port Vale 3.70 2.68
21/01/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Southend Southend 3.20 2.29
21/01/2011 Premiership Stoke v West Brom West Brom 4.33 3.11
21/01/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v Motherwell Dundee Utd 2.25 1.61
21/01/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dunfermline Dunfermline 6.50 4.96

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Championship Birmingham v Watford Birmingham 1.73 1.28
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Championship Birmingham v Watford Birmingham 1.73 1.28
21/01/2011 Championship Bristol City v Doncaster Bristol City 1.90 1.37
21/01/2011 Championship Burnley v Derby Burnley 1.84 1.33
21/01/2011 League 1 Oldham v Exeter Exeter 4.20 3.00
21/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Burton Burton 3.30 2.41
21/01/2011 League 2 Crewe v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.71
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05
21/01/2011 Premiership Stoke v West Brom West Brom 4.33 3.11

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Championship Birmingham v Watford Birmingham 1.73 1.28
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Championship Birmingham v Watford Birmingham 1.73 1.28
21/01/2011 Championship Bristol City v Doncaster Bristol City 1.90 1.37
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Championship Birmingham v Watford Birmingham 1.73 1.28
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Stockport Stockport 4.10 2.96
21/01/2011 Championship Barnsley v Millwall Millwall 3.50 2.47
21/01/2011 Championship Bristol City v Doncaster Bristol City 1.90 1.37
21/01/2011 Championship Burnley v Derby Burnley 1.84 1.33
21/01/2011 Championship Cardiff v Portsmouth Portsmouth 5.00 3.65
21/01/2011 Championship Reading v Hull Hull 4.00 2.86
21/01/2011 League 1 Charlton v Sheff Utd Sheff Utd 3.40 2.44
21/01/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Accrington Aldershot 2.63 1.86
21/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Burton Burton 3.30 2.41
21/01/2011 League 2 Crewe v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.71
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05
21/01/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Port Vale Port Vale 3.70 2.68
21/01/2011 Premiership Sunderland v Swansea Sunderland 1.91 1.36
21/01/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v Motherwell Dundee Utd 2.25 1.61
21/01/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dunfermline Dunfermline 6.50 4.96

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Championship Bristol City v Doncaster Bristol City 1.90 1.37
21/01/2011 League 1 Charlton v Sheff Utd Sheff Utd 3.40 2.44
21/01/2011 League 2 Crewe v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.71
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05
21/01/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Port Vale Port Vale 3.70 2.68

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Championship Bristol City v Doncaster Bristol City 1.90 1.37
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Championship Bristol City v Doncaster Bristol City 1.90 1.37
21/01/2011 League 1 Charlton v Sheff Utd Sheff Utd 3.40 2.44
21/01/2011 League 2 Crewe v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.71
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05
21/01/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Port Vale Port Vale 3.70 2.68

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Stockport Stockport 4.10 2.96
21/01/2011 Championship Barnsley v Millwall Millwall 3.50 2.47
21/01/2011 Championship Bristol City v Doncaster Bristol City 1.90 1.37
21/01/2011 Championship Burnley v Derby Burnley 1.84 1.33
21/01/2011 Championship Cardiff v Portsmouth Portsmouth 5.00 3.65
21/01/2011 League 1 Charlton v Sheff Utd Sheff Utd 3.40 2.44
21/01/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Accrington Aldershot 2.63 1.86
21/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Burton Burton 3.30 2.41
21/01/2011 League 2 Crewe v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.71
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05
21/01/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Port Vale Port Vale 3.70 2.68
21/01/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v Motherwell Dundee Utd 2.25 1.61
21/01/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dunfermline Dunfermline 6.50 4.96

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Stockport Stockport 4.10 2.96
21/01/2011 Championship Barnsley v Millwall Millwall 3.50 2.47
21/01/2011 Championship Bristol City v Doncaster Bristol City 1.90 1.37
21/01/2011 Championship Burnley v Derby Burnley 1.84 1.33
21/01/2011 Championship Cardiff v Portsmouth Portsmouth 5.00 3.65
21/01/2011 League 1 Charlton v Sheff Utd Sheff Utd 3.40 2.44
21/01/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Accrington Aldershot 2.63 1.86
21/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Burton Burton 3.30 2.41
21/01/2011 League 2 Crewe v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.71
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05
21/01/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Port Vale Port Vale 3.70 2.68
21/01/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v Motherwell Dundee Utd 2.25 1.61
21/01/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dunfermline Dunfermline 6.50 4.96

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Stockport Stockport 4.10 2.96 New Criteria
21/01/2011 Championship Barnsley v Millwall Millwall 3.50 2.47 New Criteria
21/01/2011 Championship Burnley v Derby Burnley 1.84 1.33 Old Criteria
21/01/2011 Championship West Ham v Notts Forest Notts Forest 5.96 4.51 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 1 Bury v Yeovil Yeovil 3.75 2.71 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 1 Charlton v Sheff Utd Sheff Utd 3.40 2.44 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 1 Oldham v Exeter Exeter 4.20 3.00 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 1 Preston v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 3.75 2.74 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 2 Crewe v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.71 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Port Vale Port Vale 3.70 2.68 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Southend Southend 3.20 2.29 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Accrington Aldershot 2.63 1.86 Old Criteria
21/01/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v Motherwell Dundee Utd 2.25 1.61 Old Criteria
21/01/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dunfermline Dunfermline 6.50 4.96 Old Criteria

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Stockport Stockport 4.10 2.96 New Criteria
21/01/2011 Championship Barnsley v Millwall Millwall 3.50 2.47 New Criteria
21/01/2011 Championship Burnley v Derby Burnley 1.84 1.33 Old Criteria
21/01/2011 Championship West Ham v Notts Forest Notts Forest 5.96 4.51 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 1 Bury v Yeovil Yeovil 3.75 2.71 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 1 Charlton v Sheff Utd Sheff Utd 3.40 2.44 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 1 Oldham v Exeter Exeter 4.20 3.00 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 1 Preston v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 3.75 2.74 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 2 Crewe v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.71 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Port Vale Port Vale 3.70 2.68 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Southend Southend 3.20 2.29 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Accrington Aldershot 2.63 1.86 Old Criteria
21/01/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v Motherwell Dundee Utd 2.25 1.61 Old Criteria
21/01/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dunfermline Dunfermline 6.50 4.96 Old Criteria

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Stockport Stockport 4.10 2.96 New Criteria
21/01/2011 Championship Barnsley v Millwall Millwall 3.50 2.47 New Criteria
21/01/2011 Championship Burnley v Derby Burnley 1.84 1.33 Old Criteria
21/01/2011 League 1 Charlton v Sheff Utd Sheff Utd 3.40 2.44 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 2 Crewe v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.71 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Port Vale Port Vale 3.70 2.68 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Accrington Aldershot 2.63 1.86 Old Criteria
21/01/2011 Premiership Sunderland v Swansea Sunderland 1.91 1.36 Old Criteria
21/01/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v Motherwell Dundee Utd 2.25 1.61 Old Criteria

Going against the crowd......

2012-01-17T15:35:00.003Z

I was discussing something with a colleague at work the yesterday about the football bets I have. I was bemoaning the fact that I back a helluva lot of the same teams week in, week out and in my mind, there are some teams that continually cost me money!

Off the top of my head, I quoted to him that I’m sure Accrington never win for me (usually draw I thought!). The reason the topic of conversation came up though was because he’s a Hibs fan and I was annoyed that I had dropped Hibs as a bet on Saturday even though I thought they’d win (they were lucky in the end!). I’m pretty strict with the value bets on lower priced aways and quite simply, I will only go below around 7/4 on Aways if I think there is a great deal of value thrown up by the ratings. i.e. more than I’d normally need to make the team a value selection. This additional value buffer is something I introduced this season after last season’s performance of the lower priced away bets.

Anyway, I mentioned to him that I never seem to be able to get Hibs correct and every time I back them, they let me down.

You can maybe tell where this is going but am I right about the above teams? Which teams are bogey teams for the systems and which teams are friends of the systems?

Below is a table which shows the top and bottom 15 teams from all the backtesting and live results. I’ve sorted it by the number of points won on H/A betting but I could have easily sorted it on ROI or looked at DNB. I’ve also looked at last season and this season in particular since these seasons are live results only.

As you will see, it is interesting reading……..

For the record, I was spot on about Accrington! Last season, they lost the systems 87pts from 155 bets. This season, they’ve lost the systems 19.6pts from 47 bets. Since 2006, they’ve cost the systems 51pts from 386 bets.

As for my mate’s team Hibs, it’s worse than I thought…. Hibs have officially cost the systems the second highest number of pts in the last 6 seasons! A loss of 67pts from 183 bets. The worst team is actually Grays who lost the systems 87pts from 221 bets. Thankfully, this is solely from the early years as they haven’t been in the Bsq Prem the last two seasons, so I haven’t actually ever placed a bet on Grays!

I know I can’t do anything about it but it does make interesting reading. This season, Portsmouth, Plymouth, MK Dons and Braintree have no wins between them from 111 bets! I’ll definitely have lower confidence when I’m backing these teams the next time they appear!

At the other end of the scale, I said to my friend that I thought Aldershot were a favourite team of mines as I know I’ve backed them a lot in the last 18 months or so and they’ve done OK. Looking at the overall picture, Aldershot have won the second highest number of pts which shows my thinking wasn’t too far off! Last season, they won the 5th highest and this season, they are currently ranked 13th.

Oldham have actually won my systems the most points ever with a highly impressive 250pts from 517 games!

I think from looking at the tables, one thing that is apparent is the fact that I back unfashionable teams. When you consider that around ¾ of my bets are on away teams, then you can understand why backing these unfashionable teams away from home creates an edge in itself. They aren’t likely to be bet on from Joe Punter! If you did similar analysis with other people using football ratings on these leagues, I’m sure you’d see the same picture there where we’re all backing unfashionable teams.

I don’t honestly know how much this matters in betting but I honestly believe that an extra little edge is created by backing against teams that Joe Punter likes to back. This will be bigger name sides in the lower leagues against the more unfashionable teams. Hence, by going against the obvious (at the highest level which has to be team name!), then I suspect that you end up creating an edge over other punters anyway.

I’ve said this a lot on the blog over the past 2 years but going against the crowd at betting is definitely the best way to make money gambling in my opinion.

Weekend Round Up

2012-01-16T16:44:00.004Z

At first glance, Saturday looks like a disaster but when you look at the overall P&L and the results, you can’t help but feel it could have been better. The draw reared its ugly head again on some systems and at the end of the day, most of the highest value selections didn’t win, so it was never going to be a good day. However, I think we were maybe one goal away from being an OK day. Whatever way I look at it though, it’s a losing day!

Algorithm one had 18 bets, 4 winners, 7 draws and 7 losers. A loss of 3.68pts for H/A betting and a loss of only 0.57pts if covering the draw using DNB.

Algorithm two also had 18 bets with 4 winners, 6 draws and 8 losers. A loss of 3.68pts for H/A betting and a loss of 1.57pts for DNB.

Algorithm three had 11 bets. 3 winners, 3 draws and 5 losers. A profit of 1.52pts for H/A betting and a profit of 1.10pts for DNB.

Can’t recall too many times this season when algorithm three has outperformed the other two if I’m honest.

The established systems made a loss of 32.84pts for H/A and 12.41pts for DNB. Splitting it by system, it is 16.08pts lost on the combined systems and 16.76pts lost on the single systems.

The new systems made a profit of 7.72pts for H/A and 10.27pts for DNB. The DNB single systems lost 3.48pts, the DNB combined systems won 3.04pts and the SGM systems won 8.16pts.

I suspect it may actually be the first time this season the SGM systems have made more profit than any other systems!

After this weekend, there are 16 systems in profit this season. System 8, TOX, STOY and STOZ are the ones not in profit. Annoyingly, if you look at Jan-12 in isolation, these 4 systems are the ones who are doing pretty well this month!

I’d sort of given up hope on these 4 systems this season if I’m honest. On 1st October, system 8 was 24.4 down from the peak last season. That’s a fairly big drop! It has now recovered to be only 13pts down 38 games later. Hence, it has made a profit of 11.4pts from the last 38 games (30% ROI).

I’ve mentioned this before on the blog but TOX, STOY and STOZ fascinate me in the sense that when my other systems do well, these systems struggle and vice versa. Most systems lost on Saturday but these systems all made profits. These systems have only been in profit once this season but they have a near 30% ROI on Homes this season. The Aways on these systems are easily the worst aways my other systems find! The aways on the other systems are +14% and the Homes are break-even!

It may well be the case that these systems can be used in some way to balance out the variations in the other systems. I run two portfolios and the combined system (6-21 to 8-22) lost badly on Saturday but the other portfolio of new systems covered a chunk of the losses. Ultimately, I bemoaned these other systems last weekend for being rubbish, so I’m not changing my tune yet but at least they didn’t lose this weekend!

Overall, a weekend where those that haven’t been doing well this season following the systems may have actually had an OK day and those that have been following the best systems this season struggled I suspect on Saturday. As always, can’t read too much into one day in isolation.

There are no midweek bets this week, so the next post should be on Friday unless I can find something interesting to write about before then…….

Tomorrow's Bets

2012-01-13T19:00:00.002Z

It's hard to explain the significance of tomorrow in the context of this season. It's the busiest single day so far this season and looking back, it is one of the busiest days ever considering that there are only two games in the Bsq Prem!

Too many important games to mention but there is a massive bias towards Away bets as usual. The average odds are 3.85 and there are 160 bets across 20 systems. There are actually 21 different value bets and 17 appear on system 6-21, so 17 important games for the systems!

Wish me luck.......

The Football Analyst Bets for 14th January

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.88 2.01
14/01/2011 Championship Derby v Coventry Coventry 4.50 3.23
14/01/2011 Championship Hull v Peterborough Hull 1.80 1.33
14/01/2011 League 1 Brentford v Wallsall Wallsall 4.70 3.42
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53
14/01/2011 League 1 Exeter v Hartlepool Hartlepool 3.20 2.26
14/01/2011 League 1 MK Dons v Carlisle Carlisle 4.52 3.31
14/01/2011 League 1 Preston v Wycombe Wycombe 4.75 3.53
14/01/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Tranmere Tranmere 2.82 1.99
14/01/2011 League 2 Accrington v Barnet Barnet 5.00 3.74
14/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Morecambe Morecambe 3.29 2.34
14/01/2011 League 2 Macclesfield v Torquay Macclesfield 2.92 2.06
14/01/2011 Premiership Aston Villa v Everton Everton 3.30 2.31
14/01/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Fulham Blackburn 3.02 2.13
14/01/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Kilmarnock Aberdeen 2.21 1.56
14/01/2011 SPL Hearts v St Mirren St Mirren 5.21 3.81
14/01/2011 SPL Motherwell v Inverness Inverness 4.50 3.23
14/01/2011 SPL St Johnstone v Rangers St Johnstone 7.00 5.31

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.88 2.01
14/01/2011 Championship Hull v Peterborough Hull 1.80 1.33
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53
14/01/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Tranmere Tranmere 2.82 1.99
14/01/2011 Premiership Aston Villa v Everton Everton 3.30 2.31

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.88 2.01
14/01/2011 Championship Hull v Peterborough Hull 1.80 1.33
14/01/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Tranmere Tranmere 2.82 1.99

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.88 2.01
14/01/2011 Championship Derby v Coventry Coventry 4.50 3.23
14/01/2011 Championship Hull v Peterborough Hull 1.80 1.33
14/01/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Notts County Notts County 3.86 2.80
14/01/2011 League 1 Brentford v Wallsall Wallsall 4.70 3.42
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53
14/01/2011 League 1 MK Dons v Carlisle Carlisle 4.52 3.31
14/01/2011 League 1 Preston v Wycombe Wycombe 4.75 3.53
14/01/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Tranmere Tranmere 2.82 1.99
14/01/2011 League 2 Accrington v Barnet Barnet 5.00 3.74
14/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Morecambe Morecambe 3.29 2.34
14/01/2011 League 2 Macclesfield v Torquay Macclesfield 2.92 2.06
14/01/2011 Premiership Aston Villa v Everton Everton 3.30 2.31
14/01/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Fulham Blackburn 3.02 2.13
14/01/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Kilmarnock Aberdeen 2.21 1.56
14/01/2011 SPL Celtic v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 14.40 12.13
14/01/2011 SPL Hearts v St Mirren St Mirren 5.21 3.81
14/01/2011 SPL Motherwell v Inverness Inverness 4.50 3.23

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.88 2.01
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.88 2.01
14/01/2011 Championship Derby v Coventry Coventry 4.50 3.23
14/01/2011 Championship Hull v Peterborough Hull 1.80 1.33
14/01/2011 League 1 Brentford v Wallsall Wallsall 4.70 3.42
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53
14/01/2011 League 1 MK Dons v Carlisle Carlisle 4.52 3.31
14/01/2011 League 1 Preston v Wycombe Wycombe 4.75 3.53
14/01/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Tranmere Tranmere 2.82 1.99
14/01/2011 League 2 Accrington v Barnet Barnet 5.00 3.74
14/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Morecambe Morecambe 3.29 2.34
14/01/2011 League 2 Macclesfield v Torquay Macclesfield 2.92 2.06
14/01/2011 Premiership Aston Villa v Everton Everton 3.30 2.31
14/01/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Fulham Blackburn 3.02 2.13
14/01/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Kilmarnock Aberdeen 2.21 1.56
14/01/2011 SPL Hearts v St Mirren St Mirren 5.21 3.81
14/01/2011 SPL Motherwell v Inverness Inverness 4.50 3.23

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.88 2.01
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.88 2.01
14/01/2011 Championship Hull v Peterborough Hull 1.80 1.33
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53
14/01/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Tranmere Tranmere 2.82 1.99
14/01/2011 Premiership Aston Villa v Everton Everton 3.30 2.31

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.88 2.01
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.88 2.01
14/01/2011 Championship Hull v Peterborough Hull 1.80 1.33
14/01/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Tranmere Tranmere 2.82 1.99

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.88 2.01

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 Championship Derby v Coventry Coventry 4.50 3.23
14/01/2011 League 1 Brentford v Wallsall Wallsall 4.70 3.42
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53
14/01/2011 League 1 MK Dons v Carlisle Carlisle 4.52 3.31
14/01/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Tranmere Tranmere 2.82 1.99
14/01/2011 League 2 Accrington v Barnet Barnet 5.00 3.74
14/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Morecambe Morecambe 3.29 2.34
14/01/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Fulham Blackburn 3.02 2.13
14/01/2011 SPL Celtic v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 14.40 12.13
14/01/2011 SPL Motherwell v Inverness Inverness 4.50 3.23
14/01/2011 SPL St Johnstone v Rangers St Johnstone 7.00 5.31

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53
14/01/2011 SPL St Johnstone v Rangers St Johnstone 7.00 5.31

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53
14/01/2011 SPL St Johnstone v Rangers St Johnstone 7.00 5.31

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 Championship Derby v Coventry Coventry 4.50 3.23
14/01/2011 League 1 Brentford v Wallsall Wallsall 4.70 3.42
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53
14/01/2011 League 1 MK Dons v Carlisle Carlisle 4.52 3.31
14/01/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Tranmere Tranmere 2.82 1.99
14/01/2011 League 2 Accrington v Barnet Barnet 5.00 3.74
14/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Morecambe Morecambe 3.29 2.34
14/01/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Fulham Blackburn 3.02 2.13
14/01/2011 SPL Celtic v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 14.40 12.13
14/01/2011 SPL Motherwell v Inverness Inverness 4.50 3.23

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 Championship Derby v Coventry Coventry 4.50 3.23
14/01/2011 League 1 Brentford v Wallsall Wallsall 4.70 3.42
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53
14/01/2011 League 1 MK Dons v Carlisle Carlisle 4.52 3.31
14/01/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Tranmere Tranmere 2.82 1.99
14/01/2011 League 2 Accrington v Barnet Barnet 5.00 3.74
14/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Morecambe Morecambe 3.29 2.34
14/01/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Fulham Blackburn 3.02 2.13
14/01/2011 SPL Motherwell v Inverness Inverness 4.50 3.23

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34 Old Criteria
14/01/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.88 2.01 Old Criteria
14/01/2011 Championship Derby v Coventry Coventry 4.50 3.23 New Criteria
14/01/2011 Championship Hull v Peterborough Hull 1.80 1.33 New Criteria
14/01/2011 League 1 Brentford v Wallsall Wallsall 4.70 3.42 New Criteria
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53 New Criteria
14/01/2011 League 1 Preston v Wycombe Wycombe 4.75 3.53 New Criteria
14/01/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Tranmere Tranmere 2.82 1.99 Old Criteria
14/01/2011 League 2 Accrington v Barnet Barnet 5.00 3.74 Old Criteria
14/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Morecambe Morecambe 3.29 2.34 New Criteria
14/01/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Fulham Blackburn 3.02 2.13 Old Criteria
14/01/2011 SPL Motherwell v Inverness Inverness 4.50 3.23 Old Criteria

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34 Old Criteria
14/01/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.88 2.01 Old Criteria
14/01/2011 Championship Derby v Coventry Coventry 4.50 3.23 New Criteria
14/01/2011 Championship Hull v Peterborough Hull 1.80 1.33 New Criteria
14/01/2011 League 1 Brentford v Wallsall Wallsall 4.70 3.42 New Criteria
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53 New Criteria
14/01/2011 League 1 Preston v Wycombe Wycombe 4.75 3.53 New Criteria
14/01/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Tranmere Tranmere 2.82 1.99 Old Criteria
14/01/2011 League 2 Accrington v Barnet Barnet 5.00 3.74 Old Criteria
14/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Morecambe Morecambe 3.29 2.34 New Criteria
14/01/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Fulham Blackburn 3.02 2.13 Old Criteria
14/01/2011 SPL Motherwell v Inverness Inverness 4.50 3.23 Old Criteria

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34 Old Criteria
14/01/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.88 2.01 Old Criteria
14/01/2011 League 1 Brentford v Wallsall Wallsall 4.70 3.42 New Criteria
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53 New Criteria
14/01/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Tranmere Tranmere 2.82 1.99 Old Criteria
14/01/2011 League 2 Accrington v Barnet Barnet 5.00 3.74 Old Criteria
14/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Morecambe Morecambe 3.29 2.34 New Criteria
14/01/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Fulham Blackburn 3.02 2.13 Old Criteria
14/01/2011 SPL Motherwell v Inverness Inverness 4.50 3.23 Old Criteria

Systems bounce back yet again.....

2012-01-11T10:45:00.002Z

One common theme that I’ve written about on the blog over the last 18 months has been the fact that I’m personally more comfortable gambling when I’m following a system rather than following my own thoughts.

I know more than most what the pressure is like when you’re going through a tough run and you’re losing money but more importantly, what it is like to be followed by others who are using your advice to try to make money. Quite simply, losing runs can affect your judgement in a way that most people reading this would never appreciate and having been there with the horseracing before, it is something I could never do again.

When I stopped following horseracing at the end of 2009, I could barely recognise what it meant to pick a value selection as my judgement was so badly impacted by previous losers, I’d lost every bit of confidence in myself that I could find value. The fact that the previous 3 months, 6 months and 12 months indicated I had found myself a fairly significant edge no longer mattered as quite simply, once your judgement goes, you start to doubt everything you’re doing and the edge you once had is effectively gone. That’s not to say it will never return again but being honest, I’ve barely looked at horseracing since the day I turned my attention to trying to find an edge with the footie.

Anyway, the reason the above is important is because after Saturday’s wipeout, I wasn’t exactly brimming with confidence when I saw the two selections thrown up for this midweek on so many systems. Of course, the selections have little to do with me (I just press buttons and drag down formulas) but at the end of the day, I’m following many of the systems with my own cash and I lose confidence as much as anyone.

It has been a tough few weeks for the systems (or at least, it feels that way) and seeing both these bets thrown up, I was hardly brimming with confidence. Aways have suddenly embarked on a really bad run on the systems and many of the systems are 5-10 points down on a drawdown. Not a disaster but if you are following multiple systems, the drawdowns soon add up.

Throw in the fact that one of the Aways was in the Bsq Prem and that has been a graveyard for longer priced Aways this season and let’s just say I was expecting to be writing a post today saying that the systems have hit a really bad spell and we all better be strapping ourselves in.

Of course, the systems don’t know they are on a really bad run (I don’t tell them the results! ;) ) and therefore, they just continue throwing up the same bets day in, day out. I know for a fact that if I was picking the selections after the weekend (none of the teams were even close to winning), I’d have been doubting myself just a little. But no, the systems pull out two decent priced Away bets as value.

It’s easier to write this post now that I know both teams won but even before the games started last night, I had a little wry smile to myself. Both teams were punted very heavily pre-match and compared to the odds I backed at, they were much shorter at kick-off. That is effectively what this blog is about. Yeah, it’s good to hit lots of winners and I sometimes get great satisfaction from seeing a big drifter win when I’ve backed it but for the vast majority of the time, the systems are selecting teams at odds which then shorten and in the long-run, over 100s and 1,000s of bets, that gives the systems an edge over the bookmakers. That effectively is the edge I’ve created at this game.

Algorithm One had 2 bets, 2 winners.

Algorithm Two had 2 bets, 2 winners.

Algorithm Three had 2 bets 2 winners.

Established systems made a profit of 17.99pts for H/A and 10.55pts for DNB betting.

New systems made a profit of 26.79pts for H/A and 15.71pts for DNB betting.

If you look back to my previous post, you’ll see that overall, the systems have nearly recouped all the losses from the wipeout on Saturday. Of course, different systems may have won back more than they lost on Saturday and vice versa but I can’t do much about that in the short-term!

Next bets will be posted on Friday night for Saturday’s games.

Tonight's Bets

2012-01-10T09:01:00.001Z

Below are the bets for tonight. Only two games of interest with Bristol Rovers and Grimsby thrown up as value bets.

Hopefully one of these two will stop the losing streak that has crept up on some of the systems……

The Football Analyst Bets for 10th January

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/01/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge Utd v Grimsby Grimsby 3.20 2.29
10/01/2012 League 2 Hereford v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 3.33 2.36

System 7
None

System 8
None

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/01/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge Utd v Grimsby Grimsby 3.20 2.29
10/01/2012 League 2 Hereford v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 3.33 2.36

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/01/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge Utd v Grimsby Grimsby 3.20 2.29

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/01/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge Utd v Grimsby Grimsby 3.20 2.29
10/01/2012 League 2 Hereford v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 3.33 2.36

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/01/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge Utd v Grimsby Grimsby 3.20 2.29

System 7-21
None

System 7-22
None

System 8-21
None

System 8-22
None

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/01/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge Utd v Grimsby Grimsby 3.20 2.29
10/01/2012 League 2 Hereford v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 3.33 2.36

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/01/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge Utd v Grimsby Grimsby 3.20 2.29

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/01/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge Utd v Grimsby Grimsby 3.20 2.29

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/01/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge Utd v Grimsby Grimsby 3.20 2.29

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/01/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge Utd v Grimsby Grimsby 3.20 2.29
10/01/2012 League 2 Hereford v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 3.33 2.36

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/01/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge Utd v Grimsby Grimsby 3.20 2.29
10/01/2012 League 2 Hereford v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 3.33 2.36

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/01/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge Utd v Grimsby Grimsby 3.20 2.29

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/01/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge Utd v Grimsby Grimsby 3.20 2.29

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/01/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge Utd v Grimsby Grimsby 3.20 2.29

Total Wipeout

2012-01-08T21:44:00.003Z

Well, some of my posts last week were almost prophetic!

I was sort of strapping myself in for a rough spell and as if by magic, the systems suffered a total wipeout this weekend. 7 games, 7 losers. Doesn’t get any more straightforward than that.

Algorithm one had 6 bets, 6 losers. -6pts.

Algorithm two had 4 bets, 4 losers. -4pts.

Algorithm three had 7 bets, 7 losers. -7pts.

It then becomes a case of how good the systems are at missing bets out!

Thankfully, they did an OK job this weekend and it could have been worse I suspect.

Established systems lost 20pts and New systems lost 25pts. Not a disaster.

No point dwelling on this weekend. Not the first time the systems have had a wipeout and won’t be the last time either. Happens once or twice every season.

We’ll move on……..

Tomorrow's Bets

2012-01-06T21:30:00.000Z

Here's the bets for tomorrow. A quieter day due to the FA Cup but still plenty of interest for the systems.

Good luck.

The Football Analyst Bets for 7th January

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Hayes Hayes 6.90 5.41
07/01/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Forest Green Forest Green 3.60 2.58
07/01/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 4.00 2.89
07/01/2012 League 1 Chesterfield v Exeter Chesterfield 2.25 1.61
07/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Rochdale Rochdale 3.25 2.32
07/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Plymouth Plymouth 3.75 2.73

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Rochdale Rochdale 3.25 2.32

System 8
None

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 League 1 Chesterfield v Exeter Chesterfield 2.25 1.61
07/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Rochdale Rochdale 3.25 2.32
07/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Plymouth Plymouth 3.75 2.73
07/01/2012 League 2 Southend v Port Vale Port Vale 4.33 3.16

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Rochdale Rochdale 3.25 2.32
07/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Plymouth Plymouth 3.75 2.73

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 League 1 Chesterfield v Exeter Chesterfield 2.25 1.61
07/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Rochdale Rochdale 3.25 2.32
07/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Plymouth Plymouth 3.75 2.73

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Rochdale Rochdale 3.25 2.32
07/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Plymouth Plymouth 3.75 2.73

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Rochdale Rochdale 3.25 2.32

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Rochdale Rochdale 3.25 2.32

System 8-21
None

System 8-22
None

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Hayes Hayes 6.90 5.41
07/01/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Forest Green Forest Green 3.60 2.58
07/01/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 4.00 2.89
07/01/2012 League 1 Chesterfield v Exeter Chesterfield 2.25 1.61
07/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Rochdale Rochdale 3.25 2.32
07/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Plymouth Plymouth 3.75 2.73
07/01/2012 League 2 Southend v Port Vale Port Vale 4.33 3.16

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Hayes Hayes 6.90 5.41
07/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Plymouth Plymouth 3.75 2.73

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Plymouth Plymouth 3.75 2.73

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Hayes Hayes 6.90 5.41
07/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Plymouth Plymouth 3.75 2.73

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 League 1 Chesterfield v Exeter Chesterfield 2.25 1.61
07/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Rochdale Rochdale 3.25 2.32
07/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Plymouth Plymouth 3.75 2.73
07/01/2012 League 2 Southend v Port Vale Port Vale 4.33 3.16

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 League 1 Chesterfield v Exeter Chesterfield 2.25 1.61
07/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Rochdale Rochdale 3.25 2.32
07/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Plymouth Plymouth 3.75 2.73

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Rochdale Rochdale 3.25 2.32
07/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Plymouth Plymouth 3.75 2.73

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Rochdale Rochdale 3.25 2.32
07/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Plymouth Plymouth 3.75 2.73

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Rochdale Rochdale 3.25 2.32
07/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Plymouth Plymouth 3.75 2.73

Last thing before we move on.....

2012-01-06T12:18:00.005Z

Just a quick post with a few graphs. Tom posted a comment on my last post asking to see a graph of all the results from last season and this season on the same graph.

The graph is shown below.

It’s quite an interesting graph and as usual, it tends to highlight the need for patience with any system that may have a significant edge. I don’t think there’s too much doubt that I have developed a decent edge with my systems (an ROI of 10.6% across 4,147bets) but you can see a spell of over 2,000 bets where no profit is made at all!

Obviously, at the average odds I play and the fact that Aways account for 70% of the overall number of bets, it isn’t unusual for large spells of unprofitability to occur. 2,000 bets is a bit of a one-off though as it incorporates 3 large losing months in the space of 6 months which is fairly unusual for my systems. Feb-11, Apr-11 and Sep-11 were all bad losing months but if I look back on my full data set back to 2001, there isn’t a period where my systems have had 3 losing months in 6 before. Hence, hopefully it won’t happen again!

On the other hand, although no profit was made over 2,000 bets, the drawdown wasn’t too significant as I said yesterday, so although the systems weren’t making profits, they weren’t suffering huge losses either.

There are two other graphs that are worth showing before I stop looking back and start concentrating on the next 5 months……

Here’s the same graph above but looking at DNB (AH0) profitability instead of backing the teams to win outright. As you can see, there is less 120pts less profit but over the piece, it doesn’t have the same level of volatility that the above graph has.

The last graph is a good graph to end this piece of analysis on. This shows the profitability of the systems for all backtested results and live results. There are now 15,705 games on these systems. 4,147 live proofed results and 11,558 backtested results. There are actually 34,000 results if I include the backfitted results (pre 2006) but I don’t use these for any analysis as I’ve discussed before as they don’t mean anything due to the backfitting.

I think this last graph shows how unexpected the spell was where no profits were made for over 2,000 bets. There have been 1,000+ bet spells 3 or 4 times where no profits have been made and therefore, I don’t get too alarmed when I see spells like this occurring. I obviously got alarmed when we had the 3 losing months out of 6 but now that it has happened once, I’m confident that if it happens again, we can all be confident that the systems will bounce back.

Hopefully we don’t need to worry about that happening again for a long time yet………….

The Elephant In The Room.......

2012-01-05T15:31:00.005Z

The title of this blog post could have easily read ‘the second half of season 2010/11’ but instead, I’ve given it a more appropriate name for the blog!

Any long-term readers will know a fair bit of what happened in the second half of last season and after paying particular attention to the first half of this season and the similarities with the first half of last season in the last post, it seems only right to again highlight what happened in the second half of last season.

Mark Iverson left a comment on the last post asking to see a graph of the second half of the season in May. Now I’ve read Mark’s comment again, I think he’s actually meaning May-12 and doing the same comparison with the second half of this season and last season, but if you read my reply to Mark, you’ll see that I thought he meant a graph of the second half of last season!

Anyway, ignoring my misunderstanding, I think it’s good to look back (for old times sake!) before we look forward. I will of course paste up a graph at the season end which compares the second half of each season (as per Mark’s suggestion).

Now that I’ve looked at this again (which is 7 months after the event), I honestly don’t believe it looks as bad as it felt at the time. Again, this is probably due to the fact that the wounds aren’t quite as raw as they were in February and April but being honest, it’s always hard on a blog to remain totally subjective when you are losing money.

As I’ve mentioned before on the blog a few times, I actually increased my stakes after more than doubling my betting bank in the first half of last season and therefore, I felt the second half of the season harder than most. I say most as I know I was not along in getting slightly carried away after the start last season and many of us had burnt fingers at the end of last season. Of course, the overall results were very good for the first season but when you make all the profits in the first half of the season on a new venture, it’s odds on you will not end up where you hoped to be, come the season end! Increasing stakes seemed like the easiest decision ever after 4 months of amazing profits but it was a foolish thing to do with hindsight.

Anyway, here’s the equivalent graph to the one I showed yesterday but this only shows the second part of last season. I keep calling it the second half but clearly, the season last season ended up being very lopsided due to the number of postponements in November and December, so many more games were played after Christmas than in a normal season.

As you can see, the graph isn’t pretty and it includes one massive drawdown but overall, the lowest point was only -45pts. However, the highest point was actually +75pts as the systems started January in great fashion last season, so it was a drop of 120pts from the peak to the trough. Again, it’s not a disaster based on betting banks or anything but at the time, it felt like the end of the world to me!

Interestingly, Jan-12 has started in OK fashion with Everton and Gateshead winning for me on New Year’s Day but it is too early to know how the month will end up.

Having now decided that the second half of last season wasn’t quite as bad as it looked at the time (felt much worse than that bloody graph!), if we look at the season as a whole, again, it probably looks better than it felt last season. I’ve shown the split between the first part and second part of the season by a line.

When the season ended last season, I was very down about how the season had panned out and as I said a few times on the blog, I was really disappointed with a return of around 9.4% on the systems last season. Many people commented that I was being too critical and that it had been a much better season than I painted it to be. Well, I think 7 months on from the end of last season, they are probably correct!

I can’t change the past and of course, I actually can’t change the future either as the systems will ultimately decide how this season pans out but at the moment, I feel very apprehensive about the second half of the season as you can imagine.

One other thing I had noticed before last season was that this apparent half season split was already evident during the backtesting results. Of course, I couldn’t act on it and I still can’t act on it as the second half of each season is still profitable in its own right but there is clear definition between the first part of each season and the second part of each season.

This table shows this by month and by part of season where Aug-Dec is part one and Jan-May is part two.

You can all draw your own conclusions but the first part of each season is on average 60% better than the second half of each season. That’s a worrying statistic considering we’re now into this stage of the season.....

1st half of this season v 1st half of last season

2012-01-04T19:00:00.000Z

There is enough analysis on this blog already without me adding to it by having a page for half season reviews!

However, I think this is probably as good a time as any to comment on how the first half of the season has went for the established systems and in particular, how it compares to last season. There have been 1,363 bets on the systems so far this season against a total last season of 2,784, so we could be 49% of the way through the season. As it happens, last season saw 40% more bets in the second half of the season as a result of all the postponements in November and December due to snow, so whether or not we are 49% of the way through the season is debatable but either way, we’re approaching the half way mark soon I suspect!

How has the season went so far? Well, as you can see in the table below, there is a 13.1% ROI for this season on H/A betting and an ROI of 4.7% for DNB betting.

When you compare this season to last season though, nothing else looks too familiar. Last season, H/A and DNB ended up with very similar returns over the season and interestingly, Homes and Aways ended up with very similar returns. This season, H/A is easily outscoring DNB and Aways are much more profitable than Homes!

As those following the blog for a while will remember, the first half of last season was nothing like the second half of the season. Therefore, possibly, we should be comparing the first half of this season to the first of last season? Here’s the results for the systems split into 3 parts. Part One last season which is up until 31st December, Part Two last season which is from 1st January to season end and part Part One this season which is up until Monday.

This is actually much more interesting to analyse.

As you can see now, the first half of this season isn’t too dissimilar to last season now is it? Of course, it’s not as profitable as last season but then again, we had a massive losing month in September this season that we didn’t have last season. This graph backs up this conclusion that this season isn’t too dissimilar to last season.

When you look at the performance of Homes and Aways and DNB v H/A, you can see that in the first half of last season, Aways did much better than Homes and of course, H/A was a much better strategy than DNB. Hence, the first half of this season actually looks very much like the first half of last season. If it wasn’t for September being as bad as it was, then the first half of this season could actually mirror the first half of last season!

I think it’s very interesting that there does appear to be this season split last season and of course, it does raise a question of what will happen in the next few months? Will it follow last season? Will it be different from last season and be profitable in the next few months?

At the end of the day, I don’t know the answers and therefore, we’ll see what happens as the season progresses.

What I would say is that if the systems have as bad a second half of the season as they had last season, then they don’t have as much profits to fall back on as they had last season! Of course, if they have an OK second half of the season, then they’ll get very close to the performance of the systems last season. If they have a good second half of the season, they’ll beat the performance from last season easily.

Success Breeding Complacency?

2012-01-04T12:09:00.001Z

The title of the posts refers to something that popped into my head when I was writing the monthly review for December. I started off writing the first paragraph and I was pretty downbeat and mentioning the fact that it has been a very quiet month for the systems. I didn’t use the word disappointing in the paragraph but I was definitely thinking to myself as I was writing the opening paragraph that it had been a disappointing month for the systems.

Of course, as you all know, I’ve had 3 very disappointing months within my 13 months of live results and these disappointing months cost the established systems 62pts in Feb-11, 94pts in Apr-11 and recently, 86pts in Sep-11. Therefore, there is something not quite right with my thinking when the systems make a profit of 26.6pts from 295 bets (ROI of a measly 9%) and I’m classing it as a disappointing month.

What causes this? It can only be one thing I guess……. a loss of perspective from the writer of this blog!

If someone had offered me a 9% return at the start of the month for the established systems, would I have accepted it or got insulted by the mere suggestion that the profit in the month was only going to be 9%?

I think this is the first time in a while that I’ve maybe let my personal feelings get in the way of being as unbiased as I can be about tracking the systems. My own P&L in the month for the established systems was much in line with the overall return (even though I back DNB away and outright homes) and yet, I ‘m feeling down this month.

Why?

Well, my second portfolio using a bunch of the newer systems struggled badly in December and being honest, so far this season, it has been a waste of my time. A waste of time tracking the systems, a waste of time placing the bets, a waste of time calculating the profit (or lack of it!) and for someone like me, time is my most precious asset and yet, so much of it so far this season has been spent following rubbish systems with smaller stakes for next to no return.

The ROI on the second portfolio is only 2.8% this season after December. Of course, with smaller stakes and the fact these systems are unproven, it’s meant to be one step up from paper trading but being honest, I’ve never paper trialled a betting system in my life. I’m just not cut out for it and if I’m going to spend endless hours finding bets, updating results, tracking systems, then what’s another hour here or there to place the bets using small stakes (that being honest, I won’t miss as the other portfolio will pay for any losses many times over!).

However, I think I need to stand back for a moment. A 2.8% ROI may not be very good but considering it is over in excess of 650 system bets, it’s still a profit of 20pts. 20pts profit at low stakes may not mean much to me and definitely doesn’t cover my time of doing the work on these newer systems but what was I expecting to achieve this season?

I think that’s the crux of what has been bothering me over the few weeks. I expected these new systems to be very successful and be better than my systems from last season. Why did I think this? Well, because I’d built two algorithms 18 months ago, I expected the 3rd algorithm to be better and I even expected the Similar Games Model to be better than what I’d built previously!

I think I need to appreciate the systems I already have more and stop worrying about trying to find something that’s better than what I already have. Of course, for someone like me, searching for a better edge than the one I already have is what keeps me going but I can’t let it affect my judgement on the edge I already have.

The title of the post says it all really. Maybe I should be celebrating the success I’ve had so far this season with my established systems rather than worrying about the lack of success with the newer systems…….

Anyway, just a few thoughts from me which I thought I’d share. The monthly review for December is in the usual place. You can find it by scrolling down to the bottom of this page.

http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/p/201112-monthly-results.html

New Year Period Results Update

2012-01-03T11:51:00.004Z

Hard to know where to start with the results update as there are a lot of system bets and it’s hard enough to track what goes on with this blog, never mind trying to interpret my results posts!

I’ll deal with each day at a time and take it from there for the overall results for the established systems and the new systems. My next piece of work is to write a monthly review for December and the review will pick up what has happened for each system. So, I’ll try to keep this post quite high level.

30/12/11

Carlisle were the big bet on both algorithms here. At odds of 4/1 against Huddersfield, it would have been a massive win for the systems but although they took the lead, the game finished 1-1.

Algorithm one had 2 bets, one winner and one draw. Algorithm two had 1 bet and 1 draw. Algorithm three had bets, one winner, one draw and one loser.

The established systems lost 3.75pts for H/A betting and made a profit of 0.6pts profit for DNB betting.

The new systems lost 8.75pts for H/A betting and a loss of 0.4pts for DNB betting.

31/12/11

Another frustrating day for the systems. Wigan and Rochdale were the two big away bets and both games finished in draws. The two big home games were Bristol Rovers (got hammered from Crewe!) and Colchester (easily beat Exeter). Overall, due to the away draws again, it was a tough day for H/A betting.

Algorithm one had 9 bets, 3 winners, 3 draws and 3 losers. Algorithm two had 7 bets, 2 winners, 3 draws and 2 losers. Algorithm three had 5 bets, 1 winner, 1 draw and 3 losers.

The established systems made a 13.27pts loss for H/A betting and a loss of 4.25pts for DNB.

The new systems made a loss of 14.35pts for H/A betting and a loss of 8.93pts for DNB.

Again, you can see the impact of the draws here with DNB betting outperforming H/A betting again.

01/01/12

A massive day for the systems with two very strong away bets appearing on multiple systems. Everton and Gateshead were the teams and thankfully, although both games looked like finished 0-0 for most of the game, both the bets managed to score late goals to sneak a win.

Algorithm one had 2 bets, 2 winners. Algorithm two had 2 bets, 2 winners. Algorithm three had 1 bets, 1 winner.

The established systems made a profit of 33.65pts for H/A betting and a profit of 18.30pts for DNB betting.

The new systems made a profit of 20.8pts for H/A betting and a profit of 11.24pts for DNB betting.

A great day to start 2012 and both sets of systems off to a flyer.

02/01/12

A very busy day with a whole host of bets on most systems!

Algorithm one had 19 bets. There were only 5 winners along with 4 draws and 10 losers. Thankfully, the winners were at decent odds, so it isn’t quite as bad as it looks!

Algorithm two had 15 bets, 5 winners, 2 draws and 8 losers. Again, it looks worse than it is as the winners were decent odds.

Algorithm three had 16 bets, 6 winners and 3 draws and 7 losers.

The strike rate was very low on each algorithm but as you’ll see by the returns, the average odds saved the day a little.

The established systems made a loss of 1.65pts for H/A betting and a loss of 13.78pts for DNB. Not great but when you think about the bets the systems were working with, a small loss seems like a good achievement!

The new systems did even better. They managed to make a profit of 12.85pts for H/A betting and a loss of 2.2pts for DNB betting.

Overall Update over the New Year Period (28th Dec to 2nd Jan)

The established systems made a profit of 14.98pts for H/A betting from 132 games. An ROI of 11.3%.

The combined systems (6-21 to 8-22) made a profit of 8.30pts for H/A betting from 52 bets. An ROI of 16.0%.

The single systems (6,7,8,21,22) made a profit of 6.68pts for H/A betting from 80 bets. An ROI of 8.4%.

The new systems made a profit of 10.55pts for H/A betting from 133 games. An ROI of 7.93%.

The systems relating to the DNB ratings (31,32,33,6-32,21-31,6-21-31) made a profit of 12.55pts for H/A betting from 88 games. An ROI of 14.3%.

The systems built on the SGM methodology (TOX, STOY and STOZ) made a loss of 2pts from 45 games. An ROI of -4.4%.

The reason for posting the above updates for each set of systems is because I’m amazed how close the results over the New Year Period mirror the overall results for my systems since they went live! Here’s the full record of live results for each set of systems to 2nd January:

Established Systems – 4,147 bets, a profit of 441.2pts and an ROI of 10.6%.

Combined Systems – 1,515 bets, a profit of 256.8pts and an ROI of 17.0%.

Single Systems – 2,632 bets, a profit of 184.4pts and an ROI of 7.0%.

New Systems – 1,249 bets, a profit of 35.7pts and an ROI of 2.90%.

DNB systems – 1,014 bets, a profit of 51.8pts and an ROI of 5.10%.

SGM systems – 235 bets, a loss of 16.1pts and an ROI of -6.80%.

I could write another long post about these results but you can all draw your own conclusions. As I said the other day on here, the new systems are now under pressure as the live results haven’t matched the backtested results so far this season and compared to my other systems which have been going since last season, there is clear daylight between them.

Obviously, we’re only half way through the season, so a long way to go and it won’t take too much for the new systems to turn this around I hope. They need to start improving soon though!

Anyway, that will do for this update. My next post will be the monthly review and I’ll post it in the usual place and update the blog so you know it’s done.

Today's Bets

2012-01-02T10:00:00.000Z

I can't recall too many busier days this season if I'm honest. The month started off like a dream yesterday with Everton and Gateshead winning with late goals but today is likely to be the defining day for this month I suspect.

Good luck if you are following.

The Football Analyst Bets for 2nd January

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94
02/01/2012 Championship Cardiff v Reading Reading 3.50 2.47
02/01/2012 Championship Ipswich v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.30 2.35
02/01/2012 Championship Leeds v Burnley Burnley 3.50 2.48
02/01/2012 Championship Portsmouth v Watford Watford 3.75 2.65
02/01/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Sheff Utd Carlisle 2.80 1.98
02/01/2012 League 1 Charlton v Brentford Brentford 5.29 3.96
02/01/2012 League 1 Chesterfield v Oldham Chesterfield 2.60 1.84
02/01/2012 League 1 Exeter v Yeovil Yeovil 3.72 2.64
02/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.25 2.34
02/01/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Colchester Colchester 6.00 4.57
02/01/2012 League 1 Rochdale v Preston Rochdale 2.63 1.89
02/01/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54
02/01/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 5.00 3.67
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21
02/01/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Aldershot Aldershot 4.50 3.31
02/01/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Torquay Plymouth 2.88 2.04
02/01/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Northampton Northampton 6.50 4.97
02/01/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v St Mirren St Mirren 3.50 2.47

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94
02/01/2012 League 1 Charlton v Brentford Brentford 5.29 3.96
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21
02/01/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Aldershot Aldershot 4.50 3.31
02/01/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v St Mirren St Mirren 3.50 2.47

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94
02/01/2012 Championship Cardiff v Reading Reading 3.50 2.47
02/01/2012 Championship Ipswich v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.30 2.35
02/01/2012 Championship Leeds v Burnley Burnley 3.50 2.48
02/01/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Sheff Utd Carlisle 2.80 1.98
02/01/2012 League 1 Charlton v Brentford Brentford 5.29 3.96
02/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.25 2.34
02/01/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Colchester Colchester 6.00 4.57
02/01/2012 League 1 Rochdale v Preston Rochdale 2.63 1.89
02/01/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54
02/01/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 5.00 3.67
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21
02/01/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Aldershot Aldershot 4.50 3.31
02/01/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Northampton Northampton 6.50 4.97
02/01/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v St Mirren St Mirren 3.50 2.47

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94
02/01/2012 Championship Ipswich v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.30 2.35
02/01/2012 Championship Leeds v Burnley Burnley 3.50 2.48
02/01/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94
02/01/2012 Championship Cardiff v Reading Reading 3.50 2.47
02/01/2012 Championship Ipswich v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.30 2.35
02/01/2012 Championship Leeds v Burnley Burnley 3.50 2.48
02/01/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Sheff Utd Carlisle 2.80 1.98
02/01/2012 League 1 Charlton v Brentford Brentford 5.29 3.96
02/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.25 2.34
02/01/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Colchester Colchester 6.00 4.57
02/01/2012 League 1 Rochdale v Preston Rochdale 2.63 1.89
02/01/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54
02/01/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 5.00 3.67
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21
02/01/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Aldershot Aldershot 4.50 3.31
02/01/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Northampton Northampton 6.50 4.97
02/01/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v St Mirren St Mirren 3.50 2.47

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94
02/01/2012 Championship Ipswich v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.30 2.35
02/01/2012 Championship Leeds v Burnley Burnley 3.50 2.48
02/01/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94
02/01/2012 League 1 Charlton v Brentford Brentford 5.29 3.96
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21
02/01/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Aldershot Aldershot 4.50 3.31
02/01/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v St Mirren St Mirren 3.50 2.47

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94
02/01/2012 Championship Hull v Derby Derby 5.00 3.64
02/01/2012 Championship Ipswich v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.30 2.35
02/01/2012 Championship Leeds v Burnley Burnley 3.50 2.48
02/01/2012 Championship Portsmouth v Watford Watford 3.75 2.65
02/01/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Sheff Utd Carlisle 2.80 1.98
02/01/2012 League 1 Charlton v Brentford Brentford 5.29 3.96
02/01/2012 League 1 Exeter v Yeovil Yeovil 3.72 2.64
02/01/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Colchester Colchester 6.00 4.57
02/01/2012 League 1 Rochdale v Preston Rochdale 2.63 1.89
02/01/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54
02/01/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 5.00 3.67
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21
02/01/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Aldershot Aldershot 4.50 3.31
02/01/2012 League 2 Port Vale v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.00 2.14
02/01/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Northampton Northampton 6.50 4.97

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94
02/01/2012 Championship Ipswich v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.30 2.35
02/01/2012 Championship Leeds v Burnley Burnley 3.50 2.48
02/01/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21
02/01/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Aldershot Aldershot 4.50 3.31

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Ipswich v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.30 2.35
02/01/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94
02/01/2012 Championship Ipswich v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.30 2.35
02/01/2012 Championship Leeds v Burnley Burnley 3.50 2.48
02/01/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21
02/01/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Aldershot Aldershot 4.50 3.31

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94
02/01/2012 Championship Ipswich v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.30 2.35
02/01/2012 Championship Leeds v Burnley Burnley 3.50 2.48
02/01/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Sheff Utd Carlisle 2.80 1.98
02/01/2012 League 1 Charlton v Brentford Brentford 5.29 3.96
02/01/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Colchester Colchester 6.00 4.57
02/01/2012 League 1 Rochdale v Preston Rochdale 2.63 1.89
02/01/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54
02/01/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 5.00 3.67
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21
02/01/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Aldershot Aldershot 4.50 3.31
02/01/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Northampton Northampton 6.50 4.97

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94
02/01/2012 Championship Ipswich v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.30 2.35
02/01/2012 Championship Leeds v Burnley Burnley 3.50 2.48
02/01/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Sheff Utd Carlisle 2.80 1.98
02/01/2012 League 1 Charlton v Brentford Brentford 5.29 3.96
02/01/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Colchester Colchester 6.00 4.57
02/01/2012 League 1 Rochdale v Preston Rochdale 2.63 1.89
02/01/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54
02/01/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 5.00 3.67
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21
02/01/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Aldershot Aldershot 4.50 3.31
02/01/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Northampton Northampton 6.50 4.97

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94 Old Criteria
02/01/2012 League 1 Charlton v Brentford Brentford 5.29 3.96 Old Criteria
02/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.25 2.34 Old Criteria
02/01/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54 Old Criteria
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21 Old Criteria
02/01/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Aldershot Aldershot 4.50 3.31 New Criteria
02/01/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Northampton Northampton 6.50 4.97 New Criteria

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94 Old Criteria
02/01/2012 League 1 Charlton v Brentford Brentford 5.29 3.96 Old Criteria
02/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.25 2.34 Old Criteria
02/01/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54 Old Criteria
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21 Old Criteria
02/01/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Aldershot Aldershot 4.50 3.31 New Criteria
02/01/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Northampton Northampton 6.50 4.97 New Criteria

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94 Old Criteria
02/01/2012 League 1 Charlton v Brentford Brentford 5.29 3.96 Old Criteria
02/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.25 2.34 Old Criteria
02/01/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54 Old Criteria
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21 Old Criteria
02/01/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Aldershot Aldershot 4.50 3.31 New Criteria
02/01/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Northampton Northampton 6.50 4.97 New Criteria

TPI Returns......

2011-12-31T22:18:00.000Z

The title may not mean much to some readers unless you were reading my blog from early 2011 but The Portfolio Investor has returned from his sabbatical and is writing a new blog from the start of next year.

Here’s a link to his blog and as always, Rowan’s musings should be an interesting read.

http://apuntersyear.blogspot.com/

Rowan and I go back a good couple of years now and he’s been an avid supporter of my exploits with the football systems since I started this project. He was one of the first guys to comment on the first ever post I put up in the TFA forum saying I was looking to build some football systems at the end of 2009. I met up with Rowan at Aintree in April 2010 and we discussed the football systems and where I wanted to go (I doubt he’ll remember this!) and again, he was very supportive and gave me great encouragement.

When I started out with my systems at the start of last season, Rowan did his homework and followed system 8 and then switched to system 8-22 and this season, he’s been following system 7-22. He was very supportive of the systems last season through his blog even though things went rapidly downhill on system 8-22 in the second half of last season but he never once had a bad word to say about the systems. A true gent. Hopefully he’s been repaid for his faith in the systems this season via the results on system 7-22 so far this season. :)

Anyway, I’m sure the blog will be worth reading and definitely one to bookmark.

The other blog I’ve added is one written by Eddie (Soccerdude) and the link for this one is:

http://footytradingposts.blogspot.com/

I’ve only read a dozen posts or so but it looks like an entertaining read and should be worth following as we move into next year.

I’d like to wish you all a Happy New Year and I’ll get on with finding the footie bets for Monday now!

And the updated bets.....

2011-12-30T14:38:00.002Z

These systems have only had 187 between them so far this season. 24 bets this weekend!

I wouldn't like to say it's a last roll of the dice for these systems over the next 5 months but deep down (so deep down, even I'm struggling to believe it!), I think these systems may be my best systems. Of course, this season, they are so far behind my other systems, the referee would stop the contest but I'm not wrong too often about my footie system building (well, I can think of a few times!) but anyway, worth tracking these bets to see how they do. I don't expect miracles but a return to profitability would be a good start for the systems!

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02 New Criteria
31/12/2011 Championship Birmingham v Blackpool Birmingham 2.00 1.45 New Criteria
31/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Cardiff Notts Forest 2.75 1.92 New Criteria
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35 New Criteria
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73 Old Criteria
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33 New Criteria
31/12/2011 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Crewe Bristol Rovers 2.13 1.54 New Criteria
31/12/2011 Premiership Stoke v Wigan Wigan 5.50 4.10 New Criteria
01/01/2012 Premiership West Brom v Everton Everton 2.85 2.01 New Criteria

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02 New Criteria
31/12/2011 Championship Birmingham v Blackpool Birmingham 2.00 1.45 New Criteria
31/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Cardiff Notts Forest 2.75 1.92 New Criteria
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35 New Criteria
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73 Old Criteria
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33 New Criteria
31/12/2011 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Crewe Bristol Rovers 2.13 1.54 New Criteria
31/12/2011 Premiership Stoke v Wigan Wigan 5.50 4.10 New Criteria
01/01/2012 Premiership West Brom v Everton Everton 2.85 2.01 New Criteria

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02 New Criteria
31/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Cardiff Notts Forest 2.75 1.92 New Criteria
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35 New Criteria
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73 Old Criteria
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33 New Criteria
31/12/2011 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Crewe Bristol Rovers 2.13 1.54 New Criteria

A change to TOX, STOY and STOZ (Again!)

2011-12-30T14:10:00.001Z

Right, this contradicts my last post a little on the blog about struggling for time but I’m going to loosen the criteria on TOX, STOY and STOZ this season from now. I was really into the idea of having very selective systems built on a different method with a high ROI this season but so far, it just hasn’t worked at all and therefore, I can either sit back and watch these systems struggle or do something about it.

Of course, it invalidates the historical results again (second time I’ve tweaked these systems this season as I added more Aways before) and this time, I’m definitely not updating the historical results but we can worry about the past when we get to the summer. At the moment, these systems are effectively dead systems as I’m not continuing with systems like this rubbish next season, so I’ll change the criteria to let more bets onto the systems now and see what happens.

Will it improve profitability? Not a clue but considering the Aways are -30% this season on these systems and +20% on my established systems, it can’t make things any worse I suspect!

If people are following one of these 3 systems, I’d take things really easy for a few weeks. I don’t know how many bets to expect going forward now, so just take things slowly for the timebeing. Reduce stakes. If you aren’t interested in the new bets, I’ll highlight the new bets clearly on these systems so you can still follow the old method! Seems a bit mad to have 2 types of bets within a system but I don’t want any more bloody systems to track and the methodology is the same, it’s just the criteria is tweaked. I could have done it without telling anyone but you’d have got suspicious by the number of bets going through the roof!

Anyway, I hope this breathes some life into these systems again. Deep down, I still believe these may be the best systems I have, they just have a funny way of showing it. Been saying that for 4 months and they haven’t been in profit once yet! :(

I’ll paste up the additional weekend bets in a bit.

Weekend Bets (including tonight)

2011-12-30T13:00:00.000Z

As I mentioned on my last results post, it is an important weekend for me. I track my results on a monthly basis (I know it doesn’t mean much but you need to have cut-offs somewhere!) and this month is in danger of being a losing month. It’s actually not quite as bad as I thought when I looked last night at the monthly totals (got a few pts to play with) but it would be massively disappointing to have a losing month again this season so soon after September. September was followed by two exceptional months and December started well but the last 3 weeks have been very tough. I can’t recall having a disaster of a day in December (touch wood!) but it has been small losses most days with the odd winning day and overall, it has been a hard month.

I touched on it when replying to a comment in my last post but I’m starting to feel a little run down with the footie. I sometimes forget during the Summer months when I’m building new algorithms and new systems that I need to keep these algorithms updated, find the system bets, place the bets and monitor the results and at times like this, it is very hard.

I read back some of my posts from this time last year and the comment on the 27th of December last year read “Finding it really difficult to keep everything up to date and get my bets on as well as keep the blog up to date but just about managing it”. 12 months on, many more systems on the go, another algorithm on the go, a SGM on the go with 3 systems and I can sort of understand why I’m feeling absolutely drained at the moment.

I’m starting to wonder whether this is sustainable in the short-term, never mind the long-term. When things are going really well, it’s a great buzz doing all of this but when things are going through a sticky patch, it’s really tough on me emotionally and mentally updating the ratings and doing everything else that comes with it. Interestingly, I think it doesn’t help having weeks of break-even or thereabout like I’ve had recently as it feels a waste of time. At least when I’m winning or losing, it means something to me but at the moment, it all feels very tough and not enjoyable at all.

I also need to start thinking about next season and what the plans are and I honestly don’t know where I’ll find the energy to launch a website, never mind try to find myself some subscribers.

I’m hoping things go well this weekend, I have another winning month for the systems and then I can look forward to the second half of the season, starting with the New Year’s Day card.

Anyway, below are the bets for this weekend. A few games are taking place tonight including Carlisle who have another tough away game again. A little annoyed they appear on so many systems as I can’t honestly see them winning after losing a 3-2 lead at Preston last time in the dying seconds (must be draining for them too as well as me!) but we’ll see what happens.

Be back on Monday morning with the bets for Monday and the midweek fixtures. I won’t be updating the weekend results until next week and I’ll need to do a monthly review also. There is no let up………

The Football Analyst Bets for 30th December to 1st January

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02
31/12/2011 Championship Birmingham v Blackpool Birmingham 2.00 1.45
31/12/2011 Championship Coventry v Brighton Coventry 2.78 1.94
31/12/2011 Championship Millwall v Crystal Palace Millwall 2.15 1.52
31/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Cardiff Notts Forest 2.75 1.92
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73
30/12/2011 League 1 Tranmere v Bury Tranmere 2.25 1.60
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33
31/12/2011 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Crewe Bristol Rovers 2.13 1.54
31/12/2011 Premiership Bolton v Wolves Bolton 2.25 1.60
31/12/2011 Premiership Stoke v Wigan Wigan 5.50 4.10
01/01/2012 Premiership West Brom v Everton Everton 2.85 2.01

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33
31/12/2011 Premiership Stoke v Wigan Wigan 5.50 4.10
01/01/2012 Premiership West Brom v Everton Everton 2.85 2.01

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33
01/01/2012 Premiership West Brom v Everton Everton 2.85 2.01

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02
31/12/2011 Championship Birmingham v Blackpool Birmingham 2.00 1.45
31/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Cardiff Notts Forest 2.75 1.92
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33
31/12/2011 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Crewe Bristol Rovers 2.13 1.54
31/12/2011 Premiership Bolton v Wolves Bolton 2.25 1.60
31/12/2011 Premiership Stoke v Wigan Wigan 5.50 4.10
01/01/2012 Premiership West Brom v Everton Everton 2.85 2.01

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
31/12/2011 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Crewe Bristol Rovers 2.13 1.54
01/01/2012 Premiership West Brom v Everton Everton 2.85 2.01

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02
31/12/2011 Championship Birmingham v Blackpool Birmingham 2.00 1.45
31/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Cardiff Notts Forest 2.75 1.92
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33
31/12/2011 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Crewe Bristol Rovers 2.13 1.54
31/12/2011 Premiership Bolton v Wolves Bolton 2.25 1.60
31/12/2011 Premiership Stoke v Wigan Wigan 5.50 4.10
01/01/2012 Premiership West Brom v Everton Everton 2.85 2.01

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
31/12/2011 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Crewe Bristol Rovers 2.13 1.54
01/01/2012 Premiership West Brom v Everton Everton 2.85 2.01

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33
31/12/2011 Premiership Stoke v Wigan Wigan 5.50 4.10
01/01/2012 Premiership West Brom v Everton Everton 2.85 2.01

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Premiership West Brom v Everton Everton 2.85 2.01

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33
01/01/2012 Premiership West Brom v Everton Everton 2.85 2.01

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Premiership West Brom v Everton Everton 2.85 2.01

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02
31/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Cardiff Notts Forest 2.75 1.92
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73
30/12/2011 League 1 Tranmere v Bury Tranmere 2.25 1.60
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33
30/12/2011 League 2 Cheltenham v Rotherham Rotherham 3.75 2.71
31/12/2011 League 2 Northampton v Swindon Northampton 4.43 3.20
31/12/2011 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Crewe Bristol Rovers 2.13 1.54

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02
31/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Cardiff Notts Forest 2.75 1.92
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33
31/12/2011 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Crewe Bristol Rovers 2.13 1.54

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02
31/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Cardiff Notts Forest 2.75 1.92
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33
31/12/2011 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Crewe Bristol Rovers 2.13 1.54

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73

Festive Results Update

2011-12-29T10:09:00.003Z

This post will bring the results up to date on the blog as of today. The last results post was exactly one week ago on 22nd December, so this post will cover all games from the 24th December to 28th December.

There has been a lot of games played in this time but ultimately, in terms of P&L, not a lot has changed if I’m honest. Any gains have been given back and things have remained remarkably stable over the last week. As always, there is the usual hard luck story of a late goal going against the systems and a really sore one at that if I’m honest but I’ll touch on it below.

I’ll deal with the established systems first. You can see the breakdown by day and system if you click on the picture but I don’t want to discuss the results in too much detail as the monthly results will deal with how each system has performed and I’m writing that next week, so I’ll stick with the overall results in this post although I’ll no doubt touch on some systems!

Across the period I’m reviewing, a profit has been made of 4.70pts for H/A betting and a profit of 0.96pts for DNB betting for the established systems. When you consider that this covers 80 bets, it’s pretty unusual for my systems to achieve anything like a break-even result over such a large sample of bets. It’s usually always a large profit or a large loss!

Looking at the combined systems only, then a profit of 1.9pts for H/A betting (0.44pts for DNB) was achieved across 33 bets. Again, a very similar result to the overall sample.

Overall, I can’t be too concerned and although this month has proven much more difficult than the preceding two months, I only need to look at some other services/blogs to see how difficult it has been in December to make a profit. With a full set of fixtures to come on Saturday, the month remains in the balance for the established systems as they seek to achieve a profit for the 10th month out of 13.

The same can’t be said for the new systems.

Across the period, a loss of 3.05pts for H/A betting and a loss of 9.90pts for DNB betting. This is from a sample of 64 games, so it is disappointing. As I touched on previously, there is now a clear divergence between the established systems and the new systems with the consensus being that the new systems aren’t as good as the established systems. That’s not to say that they aren’t profitable or won’t be profitable in the future but why would I (or anyone?) want to follow these new systems when they aren’t as good as my other systems. They may be better than most other football systems on the market but they are now starting to look exposed compared to my other systems which have a longer proofing period too.

I should probably split the new systems down into the 3rd algorithm (systems involving 31-33) and the SGM systems. As you will know, the SGM systems have really struggled this season (never been in profit!). The SGM systems made a profit of 4.35pts from 15 bets whereas the other systems made a loss of 7.4pts from 49 games.

As discussed previously, the only shining light on the SGM systems have been the Home bets. This trend is getting even stronger now if I’m honest. The SGM Homes have an ROI of 31% on Homes this season across 70 bets (small sample admittedly). The aways have an ROI of -30% across 120 bets!

When I look at all my systems and the performance of Homes this season, nothing can match the SGM Home bets. Hence, these systems are able to filter out the very best Home bets that all my systems have. Hence, although it may seem like I am wasting my time with these SGM systems this season, there is a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel concerning the Home bets. May help us next season.

Overall, it has been a disappointing month for the new system bets and they do face a losing month. That will be their 2nd losing month in 4 months this season and when you consider that the established systems have only had 3 losing months in 12 months, you can see that the new systems don’t appear to be as strong as the other systems. Of course, Saturday could change that and the New systems may well turn the month around but as of this moment, I think the new systems are under pressure to start improving or they won’t be added to my established systems portfolio next season.

I can’t go without mentioning how different the results above would have been if Carlisle had held on against Preston. Carlisle appeared on 17 systems at odds of 3.2, so if they had won, it was a swing of 54.4pts. They were 3-2 up and conceded a goal in the 92nd minute of the game to draw the game 3-3. Change this result and I expect this post would have read a lot differently but as always, that’s what happens and it is out with my control. Thankfully, things like don’t annoy the systems as much as it annoys me!

I’ll be back tomorrow morning with a post for the weekend bets. I’ll also need a post first thing on Monday morning for the bets on Monday.

Midweek Bets

2011-12-27T12:00:00.000Z

Here's the bets for midweek.

I'll update results on Thursday after all these games take place. Hard to keep on top of things at the moment.....

The Football Analyst Bets for 27/28th December

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/12/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Hearts Hearts 2.69 1.88
28/12/2011 SPL Celtic v Rangers Celtic 2.00 1.42
28/12/2011 SPL Hibernian v Inverness Inverness 3.15 2.22
28/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dunfermline Dunfermline 7.50 5.81

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/12/2011 SPL Celtic v Rangers Celtic 2.00 1.42

System 8
None

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/12/2012 SPL Celtic v Rangers Celtic 2.00 1.42
28/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dunfermline Dunfermline 7.50 5.81

System 22
None

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/12/2012 SPL Celtic v Rangers Celtic 2.00 1.42
28/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dunfermline Dunfermline 7.50 5.81

System 6-22
None

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/12/2011 SPL Celtic v Rangers Celtic 2.00 1.42

System 7-22
None

System 8-21
None

System 8-22
None

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dunfermline Dunfermline 7.50 5.81

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dunfermline Dunfermline 7.50 5.81

System 33
None

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dunfermline Dunfermline 7.50 5.81

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dunfermline Dunfermline 7.50 5.81

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dunfermline Dunfermline 7.50 5.81

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dunfermline Dunfermline 7.50 5.81
27/12/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Notts County Notts County 5.00 3.68

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dunfermline Dunfermline 7.50 5.81
27/12/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Notts County Notts County 5.00 3.68

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dunfermline Dunfermline 7.50 5.81
27/12/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Notts County Notts County 5.00 3.68

Weekend Bets

2011-12-23T22:00:00.001Z

Below are the bets for Saturday and early next week.

Not sure how often this happens but for the second game running, Burnley are a 20 system bet! Considering you only get somewhere between 10-15 a season, to get the same team twice running is slightly unusual! Now I’ve mentioned them, they are sure to lose and it will be the last time I ever highlight one of these on the blog before the game takes place!

Reading, Carlisle, Hearts, Wycombe, Forest Green and Northampton are all massive bets this weekend. Thrown in Notts County next Tuesday too as a massive one and this weekend will make or break this month. There is currently only a small profit on each system this month overall (give or take a system here and there), so it will either be a big profit or a big loss after this set of fixtures. After this, the fixtures come thick and fast with another set next weekend before the end of the month, so there will be more games in the final two weeks of the month for the systems than we’ve had so far to date this month.

Fingers crossed for a good weekend.

I’d also like to wish all my readers a Merry Christmas. You can all think of me on Boxing day when I start my work at 7pm to find the bets for the midweek fixtures (won’t take too long mind you as it’s only the SPL) but then again, I also need to work on New Year’s Eve for the bets for the next day to be released on New Year’s Day and that will be a full fixture card!

Good luck over the Festive period.

Graeme

The Football Analyst Bets for 24th-27th December

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Braintree Braintree 4.57 3.36
26/12/2011 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Hayes Hayes 3.82 2.82
26/12/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Forest Green Forest Green 3.50 2.55
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Peterborough Notts Forest 2.05 1.49
26/12/2011 Championship Reading v Brighton Reading 1.80 1.31
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33
27/12/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Notts County Notts County 5.00 3.68
26/12/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Exeter Wycombe 2.45 1.77
26/12/2011 League 2 Northampton v Burton Northampton 2.70 1.94
26/12/2011 Premiership Stoke v Aston Villa Aston Villa 4.33 3.13
24/12/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v Hibernian Hibernian 4.75 3.46
24/12/2011 SPL Hearts v Motherwell Hearts 2.20 1.56
24/12/2011 SPL St Mirren v Rangers St Mirren 8.50 6.60

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Peterborough Notts Forest 2.05 1.49
26/12/2011 Championship Reading v Brighton Reading 1.80 1.31
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33
27/12/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Notts County Notts County 5.00 3.68
26/12/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Exeter Wycombe 2.45 1.77
26/12/2011 Premiership Stoke v Aston Villa Aston Villa 4.33 3.13
24/12/2011 SPL Hearts v Motherwell Hearts 2.20 1.56

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Peterborough Notts Forest 2.05 1.49
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33
26/12/2011 Championship Reading v Brighton Reading 1.80 1.31

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Braintree Braintree 4.57 3.36
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Peterborough Notts Forest 2.05 1.49
26/12/2011 Championship Reading v Brighton Reading 1.80 1.31
26/12/2011 League 1 Brentford v Bournemouth Bournemouth 4.00 2.85
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33
27/12/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Notts County Notts County 5.00 3.68
26/12/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Exeter Wycombe 2.45 1.77
26/12/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Charlton Yeovil 4.33 3.15
26/12/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Accrington Accrington 3.35 2.38
26/12/2011 League 2 Northampton v Burton Northampton 2.70 1.94
26/12/2011 Premiership Stoke v Aston Villa Aston Villa 4.33 3.13
24/12/2011 SPL Hearts v Motherwell Hearts 2.20 1.56

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Reading v Brighton Reading 1.80 1.31
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Braintree Braintree 4.57 3.36
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Peterborough Notts Forest 2.05 1.49
26/12/2011 Championship Reading v Brighton Reading 1.80 1.31
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33
27/12/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Notts County Notts County 5.00 3.68
26/12/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Exeter Wycombe 2.45 1.77
26/12/2011 League 2 Northampton v Burton Northampton 2.70 1.94
26/12/2011 Premiership Stoke v Aston Villa Aston Villa 4.33 3.13
24/12/2011 SPL Hearts v Motherwell Hearts 2.20 1.56

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Reading v Brighton Reading 1.80 1.31
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Peterborough Notts Forest 2.05 1.49
26/12/2011 Championship Reading v Brighton Reading 1.80 1.31
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33
27/12/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Notts County Notts County 5.00 3.68
26/12/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Exeter Wycombe 2.45 1.77
26/12/2011 Premiership Stoke v Aston Villa Aston Villa 4.33 3.13
24/12/2011 SPL Hearts v Motherwell Hearts 2.20 1.56

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Reading v Brighton Reading 1.80 1.31
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Peterborough Notts Forest 2.05 1.49
26/12/2011 Championship Reading v Brighton Reading 1.80 1.31
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Reading v Brighton Reading 1.80 1.31
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Braintree Braintree 4.57 3.36
26/12/2011 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Hayes Hayes 3.82 2.82
26/12/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Forest Green Forest Green 3.50 2.55
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Peterborough Notts Forest 2.05 1.49
26/12/2011 League 1 Brentford v Bournemouth Bournemouth 4.00 2.85
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33
26/12/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bury Bury 3.40 2.46
27/12/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Notts County Notts County 5.00 3.68
26/12/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Exeter Wycombe 2.45 1.77
26/12/2011 League 2 Cheltenham v Shrewsbury Cheltenham 2.52 1.78
26/12/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Accrington Accrington 3.35 2.38
26/12/2011 Premiership West Brom v Man City West Brom 7.50 5.90
24/12/2011 SPL Hearts v Motherwell Hearts 2.20 1.56

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Braintree Braintree 4.57 3.36
26/12/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Forest Green Forest Green 3.50 2.55
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Peterborough Notts Forest 2.05 1.49
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33
26/12/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bury Bury 3.40 2.46
27/12/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Notts County Notts County 5.00 3.68
26/12/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Accrington Accrington 3.35 2.38

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Forest Green Forest Green 3.50 2.55
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Peterborough Notts Forest 2.05 1.49
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33
27/12/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Notts County Notts County 5.00 3.68

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Braintree Braintree 4.57 3.36
26/12/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Forest Green Forest Green 3.50 2.55
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Peterborough Notts Forest 2.05 1.49
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33
27/12/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Notts County Notts County 5.00 3.68

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Braintree Braintree 4.57 3.36
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Peterborough Notts Forest 2.05 1.49
26/12/2011 League 1 Brentford v Bournemouth Bournemouth 4.00 2.85
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33
27/12/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Notts County Notts County 5.00 3.68
26/12/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Exeter Wycombe 2.45 1.77
26/12/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Accrington Accrington 3.35 2.38
24/12/2011 SPL Hearts v Motherwell Hearts 2.20 1.56

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Braintree Braintree 4.57 3.36
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Peterborough Notts Forest 2.05 1.49
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33
27/12/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Notts County Notts County 5.00 3.68
26/12/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Exeter Wycombe 2.45 1.77
24/12/2011 SPL Hearts v Motherwell Hearts 2.20 1.56

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Exeter Wycombe 2.45 1.77
26/12/2011 League 2 Northampton v Burton Northampton 2.70 1.94
24/12/2011 SPL Hearts v Motherwell Hearts 2.20 1.56

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Exeter Wycombe 2.45 1.77
26/12/2011 League 2 Northampton v Burton Northampton 2.70 1.94
24/12/2011 SPL Hearts v Motherwell Hearts 2.20 1.56

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Exeter Wycombe 2.45 1.77
26/12/2011 League 2 Northampton v Burton Northampton 2.70 1.94
24/12/2011 SPL Hearts v Motherwell Hearts 2.20 1.56

Midweek Results

2011-12-22T19:06:00.002Z

A very quick update from the midweek games.

Algorithm one had no bets, algorithm two had 2 bets, 2 winners and algorithm three had one bet, one loser.

Overall, established systems made a profit of 7.53pts for H/A betting and 4.49pts for DNB betting. New systems lost 1pt for both types of betting.

Apologies for the quick update. Really short of time tonight.

It's a very, very busy set of fixtures coming up as you'll see tomorrow night on here!

The Great Escape

2011-12-20T11:03:00.004Z

Sometimes when I’m watching the games unfold on a Saturday, I get a feeling very early on it’s going to be a good day or a bad day. I’m not always right and with so many late goals causing massive swings for or against you, it’s always difficult to know for sure whether you are going to make a profit or not.

As Saturday unfolded, the only thing I could be sure about was that I was facing a substantial loss! Not only that, I was maybe also witnessing the biggest let down I’ve ever had on a football bet and if that had happened, I’d have been really sick!

Things started so well. If you read my post last week about the number of times teams appear on my systems, you will have picked up the fact that in 5 and a bit seasons, there had been 68 bets where teams had appeared on all 20 systems. On Saturday, Burnley were the 69th bet where this had occurred.

The ROI on these bets was 49.1% and therefore, I felt like there was suddenly huge pressure on this game. Strange really as if I had never looked at the stats on this, I’d have never worried about it so much as it has happened a few times already this season. There were 9 previous times this season that teams had met this criteria. 9 bets, 5 wins and 4 losses. A profit of 2.13pts and an ROI of 23.67%.

Not sure why but for these previous 9 times, I didn’t feel as much pressure was on the game as was on Burnley on Saturday. Maybe it was because I’d thrown an extra £10 on Burnley which made them my biggest bet of the season but then again, doesn’t quite make sense when I had more than £10 on many other teams!

Anyway, I felt a lot of pressure with that game for some reason. Brighton had a man sent off in 6th and 12th minutes off the game. Not sure how often teams lose 2 players in 12 minutes at the start of a game but Burnley were now playing against 9 men for 78 minutes of the game. Surely it was a matter of how many goals they would score?

Well…no. They did score in the 32nd minute but that was it. Every time they went across to the game on Soccer Saturday, it was about Burnley dominating possession and Brighton playing on the counter attack. Late on, they went across and Brighton had gone close to equalising.

Honestly, I don’t think I’ve sweated so much on a game in my life. Given how other events were unfolding (I didn’t have a winning team on all the other games on system 6-21 which meant a potential disaster!), I knew I needed them to hold on.

As it turned out, Burnley held on against the 9 men, Middlesboro came from 2-1 behind to beat Cardiff and West Brom scored in the 89th minute to beat Blackburn. My only other winner was Lincoln to win in the conference.

17 bets this weekend, 4 winners. Absolute rubbish……Or is it?

As the title suggests, it was The Great Escape this weekend as my systems came to the rescue.

Algorithm one had 14 bets, 3 winners, 6 draws and 5 losers. A loss of 3.75pts for H/A betting and a loss of 0.71pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm two had 13 bets, 3 winners, 5 draws and 5 losers. A loss of 2.75pts for H/A betting and a loss of 0.71pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm three had 11 bets, 3 winners, 4 draws and 4 losers. A profit of 0.38pts for H/A betting and a profit of 1.19pts for DNB betting.

Looking at these core results, you can see how much of a disaster it would have been if West Brom, Middlesboro and Burnley hadn’t all won!

Anyway, as usually happens on days like this, the combined systems limited the damage. However, this weekend, they not only limited the damage, they somehow managed to make a profit!

As the combined systems filtered the bets, the bets got stronger and stronger.

System 7-22 (is there a better football system on the planet over the last season and a bit?) somehow managed to find 4 bets at the weekend and find 2 winners for a profit of 2.5pts! Amazing when I think that I only hit 4 winners in 17 games but then again, amazing is what this system does week in, week out.

Overall, the established systems made a profit of 3.15pts for H/A betting and a profit of 1.17pts for DNB betting. The new systems made a loss of 8.22pts for H/A betting and a profit of 1.72pts for DNB.

I think that going forward, it’s important to realise that there are now 5 ‘sets’ of systems on the go. I tend to think about established v old but in reality, within the established systems, I have the 5 single systems and the 6 combined systems. Performance looks nothing like the same for both portfolios, so it’s important to recognise the sets of systems for what they are.

Likewise, within the new portfolio, I have 3 sets of systems. I have systems 31, 32 and 33 which are based on DNB ratings and are fairly unique. I then cross refer these systems with the systems from my first two sets of ratings and that creates the new combined systems 6-32, 21-31, 6-21-31. Lastly, I have the 3 systems which aren’t based on my ratings but are based on some crazy Similar Game Model methodology which appears to be useless this season. This is systems TOX, STOY and STOZ.

I always steer people towards the established systems and in particular the combined systems and this was also the thoughts of the Secret Betting Club when they looked at my systems last season. Hence, these systems are the most important to me for obvious reasons. Most people follow these, I follow these and I always tell others to follow these.

After that, systems 6,7,8,21 and 22 are the next important systems since these are used by the combined systems. In addition, I know some people use these core systems to create other systems to use.

After that, the most important are obviously 31,32 and 33 as these are ultimately new systems which are then going to be combined with my first two sets of systems to create more systems.

We then have the combined systems involving 31-33 and any other systems.

Lastly, and in a sense, the least important, would be the SGM systems since they are a bit off the wall and totally unproven in the sense I don’t even know if the methodology works, never mind the systems!

I'm forever being asked which systems to follow........

Midweek Bets

2011-12-20T09:35:00.000Z

Here's the midweek bets. A bit of a non event really!

The Football Analyst Bets for 20th-21st December

System 6
None

System 7
None

System 8
None

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/12/2011 Premiership Newcastle v West Brom West Brom 4.33 3.11
21/12/2011 Premiership QPR v Sunderland Sunderland 3.10 2.19

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/12/2011 Premiership QPR v Sunderland Sunderland 3.10 2.19

System 6-21
None

System 6-22
None

System 7-21
None

System 7-22
None

System 8-21
None

System 8-22
None

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/12/2011 Bsq Prem Hayes v Fleetwood Hayes 5.88 4.54

System 32
None

System 33
None

System 6-32
None

System 21-31
None

System 6-21-31
None

System TOX
None

System STOY
None

System STOZ
None

Busiest day of the season so far for these systems....

2011-12-17T12:56:00.002Z

A little shocked at the number of bets thrown up on these SGM systems today. Not exactly a make or break day but considering they are down on the season so far, they can do with a good bloody day for me to justify the work to find the bets!

Obviously, most of these teams below are the biggest bets on the other systems too, so it has the potential to be a disaster of a day I suspect if things go badly. Massive average odds today with very few home bets, so let's hope it's a good day for Aways!

Good luck.

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.45
17/12/2011 League 1 Charlton v Oldham Oldham 6.00 4.30
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.11
17/12/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.06
17/12/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 2.90 2.20
17/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v St Mirren St Mirren 4.50 3.23

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.45
17/12/2011 League 1 Charlton v Oldham Oldham 6.00 4.30
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.11
17/12/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.06
17/12/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 2.90 2.20
17/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v St Mirren St Mirren 4.50 3.23

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.45
17/12/2011 League 1 Charlton v Oldham Oldham 6.00 4.30
17/12/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Colchester Hartlepool 2.46 1.77
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.06
17/12/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.29
17/12/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 2.90 2.08
17/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v St Mirren St Mirren 4.50 3.30

Weekend Bets

2011-12-16T22:00:00.000Z

A very busy weekend for the systems. The next 5 weeks will make or break my season I suspect, so the fun starts this weekend. It is going to be a manic few weeks over the Festive period. I expect to have around 600 system bets in this period, so it will be hard work to keep on top of things!

The bets for TOX, STOY and STOZ will be posted tomorrow before kick-off. Not had time to do these bets yet.

Good luck.

The Football Analyst Bets for 17th-19th December

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/12/2011 Bsq Prem York v Kidderminster York 1.80 1.34
17/12/2011 Championship Blackpool v Watford Watford 4.20 3.01
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37
17/12/2011 Championship Cardiff v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3.75 2.65
17/12/2011 League 1 Charlton v Oldham Oldham 6.00 4.56
17/12/2011 League 1 Exeter v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.90 2.07
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.11
17/12/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.18
17/12/2011 League 2 Plymouth v Hereford Hereford 3.10 2.21
17/12/2011 Premiership Blackburn v West Brom West Brom 3.20 2.27
17/12/2011 Premiership Fulham v Bolton Bolton 6.45 4.83
18/12/2011 Premiership Man City v Arsenal Arsenal 5.50 4.09
17/12/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 2.90 2.06
17/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v St Mirren St Mirren 4.50 3.21

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/12/2011 Bsq Prem York v Kidderminster York 1.80 1.34
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.11
17/12/2011 Premiership Blackburn v West Brom West Brom 3.20 2.27
17/12/2011 Premiership Fulham v Bolton Bolton 6.45 4.83
17/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v St Mirren St Mirren 4.50 3.21

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/12/2011 Bsq Prem Stockport v Alfreton Alfreton 3.00 2.15
19/12/2011 Bsq Prem York v Kidderminster York 1.80 1.34
17/12/2011 Championship Blackpool v Watford Watford 4.20 3.01
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37
17/12/2011 Championship Cardiff v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3.75 2.65
17/12/2011 League 1 Charlton v Oldham Oldham 6.00 4.56
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.11
17/12/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.18
17/12/2011 Premiership Blackburn v West Brom West Brom 3.20 2.27
17/12/2011 Premiership Fulham v Bolton Bolton 6.45 4.83
18/12/2011 Premiership Man City v Arsenal Arsenal 5.50 4.09
17/12/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 2.90 2.06
17/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v St Mirren St Mirren 4.50 3.21

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/12/2011 Bsq Prem York v Kidderminster York 1.80 1.34
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.11
17/12/2011 Premiership Blackburn v West Brom West Brom 3.20 2.27
18/12/2011 Premiership Man City v Arsenal Arsenal 5.50 4.09
17/12/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 2.90 2.06

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/12/2011 Bsq Prem York v Kidderminster York 1.80 1.34
17/12/2011 Championship Blackpool v Watford Watford 4.20 3.01
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37
17/12/2011 Championship Cardiff v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3.75 2.65
17/12/2011 League 1 Charlton v Oldham Oldham 6.00 4.56
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.11
17/12/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.18
17/12/2011 Premiership Blackburn v West Brom West Brom 3.20 2.27
17/12/2011 Premiership Fulham v Bolton Bolton 6.45 4.83
18/12/2011 Premiership Man City v Arsenal Arsenal 5.50 4.09
17/12/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 2.90 2.06
17/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v St Mirren St Mirren 4.50 3.21

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/12/2011 Bsq Prem York v Kidderminster York 1.80 1.34
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.11
17/12/2011 Premiership Blackburn v West Brom West Brom 3.20 2.27
18/12/2011 Premiership Man City v Arsenal Arsenal 5.50 4.09
17/12/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 2.90 2.06

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/12/2011 Bsq Prem York v Kidderminster York 1.80 1.34
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.11
17/12/2011 Premiership Blackburn v West Brom West Brom 3.20 2.27
17/12/2011 Premiership Fulham v Bolton Bolton 6.45 4.83
17/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v St Mirren St Mirren 4.50 3.21

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/12/2011 Bsq Prem York v Kidderminster York 1.80 1.34
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.11
17/12/2011 Premiership Blackburn v West Brom West Brom 3.20 2.27

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/12/2011 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Lincoln Lincoln 4.33 3.17
19/12/2011 Bsq Prem York v Kidderminster York 1.80 1.34
17/12/2011 Championship Blackpool v Watford Watford 4.20 3.01
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37
17/12/2011 Championship Cardiff v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3.75 2.65
17/12/2011 League 1 Charlton v Oldham Oldham 6.00 4.56
17/12/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Colchester Hartlepool 2.46 1.74
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.11
17/12/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.18
17/12/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 2.90 2.06
17/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v St Mirren St Mirren 4.50 3.21

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/12/2011 Championship Blackpool v Watford Watford 4.20 3.01
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37
17/12/2011 Championship Cardiff v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3.75 2.65
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.11
17/12/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.18
17/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v St Mirren St Mirren 4.50 3.21

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/12/2011 Championship Blackpool v Watford Watford 4.20 3.01
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37
17/12/2011 Championship Cardiff v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3.75 2.65
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.11
17/12/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.50 3.25
17/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v St Mirren St Mirren 4.50 3.21

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/12/2011 Bsq Prem York v Kidderminster York 1.80 1.34
17/12/2011 Championship Blackpool v Watford Watford 4.20 3.01
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37
17/12/2011 Championship Cardiff v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3.75 2.65
17/12/2011 League 1 Charlton v Oldham Oldham 6.00 4.56
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.11
17/12/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.18
17/12/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 2.90 2.06
17/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v St Mirren St Mirren 4.50 3.21

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/12/2011 Bsq Prem York v Kidderminster York 1.80 1.34
17/12/2011 Championship Blackpool v Watford Watford 4.20 3.01
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37
17/12/2011 Championship Cardiff v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3.75 2.65
17/12/2011 League 1 Charlton v Oldham Oldham 6.00 4.56
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.11
17/12/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.18
17/12/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 2.90 2.06
17/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v St Mirren St Mirren 4.50 3.21

System TOX
TBC

System STOY
TBC

System STOZ
TBC

One for the future?

2011-12-16T14:32:00.004Z

I thought I’d post this piece of analysis as I’ve been working on it for a wee while, behind the scenes. Conscious of the fact that the blog is in danger of falling off a cliff in respect of losing readership as I’m not really finding enough new topics to post about. Of course, people come back and follow the bets but I always hoped the blog would be more than just people using it to gain free bets!

Anyway, what I’ve been looking at is trying to devise a TFA ‘super system’. I’m conscious of the fact that people see 20 systems, think it’s too complicated and decide they’d rather follow a simple blog or a simple tipster giving out a few selections every weekend. May not be as profitable as what I’m doing (unlikely to be as profitable I would suspect!) but then again, you won’t need to read endless amounts of posts to understand which bets to follow as they are laid out on a plate for you.

My first idea was to try to look at pinpointing the very best Home and Away bets that appear on my systems but being honest, I could go to town on backfitting results here to suit myself. If you back Home bets that only appear on systems X, Y and Z together, you’ll be thinking you can retire off the future profits when in reality, I’m simply falling into a trap of backfitting.

This season, I have a few systems on the go involving the new systems from algorithm three and of course, I have the pretty useless (so far!) SGM bets on TOX, STOY and STOZ.

Therefore, at the moment, I have 20 systems on the go. What are the results depending on how many times each bet appears?

As you can probably imagine, this isn’t exactly a project to undertake a few weeks before Christmas and with massive databases of results for each algorithm and set of systems. I could easily get lost in data for weeks, if not months here as trying to manipulate over 25,000 bets on all the systems isn’t as easy as you may think as my data for each algorithm isn’t identical.

I won’t bore you all too much with the fact it’s taken a good few hours to get to the results I wanted to find. Of course, going one step further and pulling out data by season, month and so on isn’t impossible but it would involve creating a brand new data set of all 25,000 games and being honest, I don’t have the time. Not even sure it’s a summer job but I reckon I could do it next summer.

Anyway, here’s the results below along with a graph which I’ll explain below.

Simply, the table shows the returns by backing teams depending on how many times a team appears on the 20 systems. For example, only backing teams that appear on all 20 systems will have only generated 68 bets in 5 and a bit seasons. However, you would have made a profit of 33.4pts for H/A and 20.2pts for DNB.

As you work down the table, you can see that the fewer times a team appears on the systems, the less of a return is achieved.

If you graph the cumulative ROI as you work down the number of times appear on a system, then you can see it is a fairly steady trend. As a team drops from 10 systems, to 9 systems to 8 systems and so on, the drop in return is almost linear!

In addition, you can see that as the number of times a team appears drops, the gap between H/A returns and DNB returns narrows a little.

All very fascinating stuff.

What does it mean? Well, one thing I haven’t managed to achieve yet is to build a single TFA system that people with little time can follow. They may only want 3 or 4 bets a week with a simple staking plan. These results effectively show that I can build this single system for next season. I already own some of the best football systems that are available but I think I can add to it by having a single system that people can follow that is easy to follow and simple to track and will save them from having to look through 20 systems to come up with the bets for themselves.

Although it may appear like I’m not doing much at times as there isn’t much to read on the blog, you can rest assured that I’m usually looking at some other way to maximise the edge I have for myself and others following. ;)

The weekend bets will be posted on the blog tonight.

Weekend Update

2011-12-11T21:19:00.004Z

Firstly, there are no midweek bets this week, so don’t expect a post with any bets. There is only one game of interest and although Aberdeen offer slight value at 11/4, it doesn’t qualify as a bet on any system.

OK, a quick round up of the weekend. Apologies for the late post on Friday night. Hopefully anyone following the blog missed the Barnet game which meant it was probably a smaller loss than everyone else who’s following the bets. One advantage of following via the blog I guess. Would have been a disadvantage if Barnet had won though!

It was a strange weekend. I was short of time before I posted the bets up, so I didn’t get a chance to comment. I was going to say that I was apprehensive this weekend due to the fact that there were a number of weak bets at big odds away from home and as always, you need some luck.

As it turned out, Blackpool letting in a late equaliser along with Plymouth meant it was a losing weekend. If Plymouth could have held on, it would have been an OK weekend, so it’s a case of thin margins and all that.

When I see so few systems bets on systems 7-21 to 8-22 (there were none this weekend), my inclination is to believe that the bets thrown up aren’t going to be the best and the results this weekend back this up. However, with a bit more luck, it wouldn’t have been that way, so I don’t think you can read too much into one set of fixtures. There have been a few times this season when I wished the more selective systems had found more bets, so it’s swings and roundabouts I suspect. Maybe a few points saved this weekend on the systems but in the long-run, it won’t matter too much I suspect.

Algorithm one had 12 bets and only found 3 winners. A loss of 4.23pts for H/A betting and a loss of 3.43pts for DNB.

Algorithm two had 13 bets and found 5 winners. It found Wigan at 5.72 to beat West Brom, so it ensured a profitable weekend for this algorithm. A profit of 3.99pts for H/A betting and a profit of 1.3pts for DNB.

Algorithm three found one winner from 5 bets. A loss of 1.5pts for H/A betting and a loss of 1.53pts for DNB betting.

As expected, the systems couldn’t do much with these bets this weekend.

The established systems lost 5.47pts for H/A betting and 7.56pts for DNB betting.

The new systems were slightly worse. A loss of 15pts for H/A betting and a loss of 11.7pts for DNB betting.

I should mention that the SGM systems again had a very poor weekend. The record of Aways on these systems is shocking so far this season (25pts lost from 99 games). It’s amazing how different this record is to the rest of my systems based on shot supremacy. On the other hand, it has been a very tough season so for Homes on all my systems apart from these SGM systems. Homes have made a profit of 15pts from 57 games. I don’t have another system this season that can match this home record at the moment.

Too early to draw meaningful conclusions but for whatever reason, the Away wins this season just haven’t happened on these SGM systems. Interestingly, DNB is doing better for the Aways, so it may just be a case that a few teams that should have won have drawn the game and considering the average aways are 4.0+, then it makes a massive difference to the overall results.

Anyway, these systems are on trial this season along with all the other new systems from this season, so if they don’t start performing, they’ll be dropped as possible systems to be used next season and not added to the official TFA portfolio of systems.

Be back later this week with the weekend bets.

Weekend Bets

2011-12-09T19:30:00.000Z

Posting these earlier tonight since Barnet kick off in 15 mins. Apologies for the late notice, just in from work.

Good luck.

The Football Analyst Bets for 9th/10th December

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10-Dec-11 Championship Barnsley v Ipswich Barnsley 2.06 1.49
10-Dec-11 Championship Middlesbrough v Brighton Brighton 4.97 3.59
10-Dec-11 Championship Southampton v Blackpool Blackpool 6.13 4.71
10-Dec-11 League 1 Colchester v Bury Bury 3.58 2.60
10-Dec-11 League 1 Leyton Orient v Exeter Leyton Orient 2.10 1.52
10-Dec-11 League 1 Scunthorpe v Carlisle Carlisle 2.92 2.10
10-Dec-11 League 1 Sheff Utd v Rochdale Rochdale 6.00 4.59
10-Dec-11 League 2 Aldershot v Shrewsbury Aldershot 2.75 1.96
10-Dec-11 League 2 Bradford v Plymouth Plymouth 4.65 3.40
10-Dec-11 League 2 Crawley v Burton Burton 7.25 5.64
10-Dec-11 League 2 Morecambe v Oxford Oxford 2.88 2.06
09-Dec-11 League 2 Torquay v Barnet Barnet 4.33 3.21

System 7
None

System 8
None

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10-Dec-11 Championship Barnsley v Ipswich Barnsley 2.06 1.49
10-Dec-11 Championship Middlesbrough v Brighton Brighton 4.97 3.59
10-Dec-11 League 1 Colchester v Bury Bury 3.58 2.60
10-Dec-11 League 1 Leyton Orient v Exeter Leyton Orient 2.10 1.52
10-Dec-11 League 1 Scunthorpe v Carlisle Carlisle 2.92 2.10
10-Dec-11 League 1 Sheff Utd v Rochdale Rochdale 6.00 4.59
10-Dec-11 League 2 Wimbledon v Accrington Accrington 3.50 2.47
10-Dec-11 League 2 Aldershot v Shrewsbury Aldershot 2.75 1.96
10-Dec-11 League 2 Bradford v Plymouth Plymouth 4.65 3.40
10-Dec-11 League 2 Crawley v Burton Burton 7.25 5.64
10-Dec-11 League 2 Morecambe v Oxford Oxford 2.88 2.06
09-Dec-11 League 2 Torquay v Barnet Barnet 4.33 3.21
10-Dec-11 Premiership West Brom v Wigan Wigan 5.72 4.26

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09-Dec-11 League 2 Torquay v Barnet Barnet 4.33 3.21

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10-Dec-11 Championship Barnsley v Ipswich Barnsley 2.06 1.49
10-Dec-11 Championship Middlesbrough v Brighton Brighton 4.97 3.59
10-Dec-11 League 1 Colchester v Bury Bury 3.58 2.60
10-Dec-11 League 1 Leyton Orient v Exeter Leyton Orient 2.10 1.52
10-Dec-11 League 1 Scunthorpe v Carlisle Carlisle 2.92 2.10
10-Dec-11 League 1 Sheff Utd v Rochdale Rochdale 6.00 4.59
10-Dec-11 League 2 Aldershot v Shrewsbury Aldershot 2.75 1.96
10-Dec-11 League 2 Bradford v Plymouth Plymouth 4.65 3.40
10-Dec-11 League 2 Crawley v Burton Burton 7.25 5.64
10-Dec-11 League 2 Morecambe v Oxford Oxford 2.88 2.06
09-Dec-11 League 2 Torquay v Barnet Barnet 4.33 3.21

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09-Dec-11 League 2 Torquay v Barnet Barnet 4.33 3.21

System 7-21
None

System 7-22
None

System 8-21
None

System 8-22
None

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10-Dec-11 League 1 Sheff Utd v Rochdale Rochdale 6.00 4.59
10-Dec-11 League 2 Wimbledon v Accrington Accrington 3.50 2.47
10-Dec-11 League 2 Bradford v Plymouth Plymouth 4.65 3.40
10-Dec-11 League 2 Crawley v Burton Burton 7.25 5.64
09-Dec-11 League 2 Torquay v Barnet Barnet 4.33 3.21

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10-Dec-11 League 2 Wimbledon v Accrington Accrington 3.50 2.47
09-Dec-11 League 2 Torquay v Barnet Barnet 4.33 3.21

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09-Dec-11 League 2 Torquay v Barnet Barnet 4.33 3.21

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09-Dec-11 League 2 Torquay v Barnet Barnet 4.33 3.21

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10-Dec-11 League 1 Sheff Utd v Rochdale Rochdale 6.00 4.59
10-Dec-11 League 2 Wimbledon v Accrington Accrington 3.50 2.47
10-Dec-11 League 2 Bradford v Plymouth Plymouth 4.65 3.40
10-Dec-11 League 2 Crawley v Burton Burton 7.25 5.64
09-Dec-11 League 2 Torquay v Barnet Barnet 4.33 3.21

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10-Dec-11 League 1 Sheff Utd v Rochdale Rochdale 6.00 4.59
10-Dec-11 League 2 Bradford v Plymouth Plymouth 4.65 3.40
10-Dec-11 League 2 Crawley v Burton Burton 7.25 5.64
09-Dec-11 League 2 Torquay v Barnet Barnet 4.33 3.21

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10-Dec-11 League 1 Sheff Utd v Rochdale Rochdale 6.00 4.59
10-Dec-11 League 2 Aldershot v Shrewsbury Aldershot 2.75 1.96
10-Dec-11 League 2 Bradford v Plymouth Plymouth 4.65 3.40
10-Dec-11 League 2 Morecambe v Oxford Oxford 2.88 2.06
09-Dec-11 League 2 Torquay v Barnet Barnet 4.33 3.21

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10-Dec-11 League 1 Sheff Utd v Rochdale Rochdale 6.00 4.59
10-Dec-11 League 2 Aldershot v Shrewsbury Aldershot 2.75 1.96
10-Dec-11 League 2 Bradford v Plymouth Plymouth 4.65 3.40
10-Dec-11 League 2 Morecambe v Oxford Oxford 2.88 2.06
09-Dec-11 League 2 Torquay v Barnet Barnet 4.33 3.21

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10-Dec-11 League 1 Sheff Utd v Rochdale Rochdale 6.00 4.59
10-Dec-11 League 2 Bradford v Plymouth Plymouth 4.65 3.40
09-Dec-11 League 2 Torquay v Barnet Barnet 4.33 3.21

Midweek Wipeout

2011-12-07T20:53:00.002Z

As the title suggest, it was a total wipeout in midweek. Thankfully, most of the best systems didn’t have any bets, so it wasn’t quite as bad as it sounds. Here’s a very quick update.

Bath was the key game but after taking a 1-0 lead, they collapsed (not for the first time this season!) and lost 4-1.

The other couple of teams thrown up lost and drew and therefore, there were no winners.

Algorithm one had 2 bets and suffered a loss and a draw. I won’t quote the losses as it isn’t difficult to calculate!

Algorithm two had 1 bet and 1 loser.

Algorithm three had 3 bets, 2 losers and a draw.

Overall, the established systems lost 4pts for H/A betting and 3pts for DNB betting.

The new systems lost 8pts for H/A betting and 7pts for DNB betting.

Bit of a nothing week really but then again, when 9 systems come up with the same team away from home at odds of 4/1, it is only going to be a great midweek or a poor midweek.

I’ll be back on Friday with the weekend bets.

Have I found an edge?

2011-12-06T17:19:00.002Z

I promised I’d post this last week but I forgot all about it if I’m honest. This only includes results up to the end of last month.

I showed a similar table last month but with 40 systems on the go (20 H/A and 20 DNB), it is difficult to look at it on one page.

This month, I’ve just shown the systems which have an ROI of 10%+ for their proofed results. In total, there are actually 18 systems from the 40 possible systems which have an ROI in excess of 10%. 6 systems are from this season (they’ll have fewer bets) but 12 systems are from last season.

So, I now manage 12 systems which have an ROI of 10%+ over a season and a bit.

Of course, this is slightly misleading as if a system like 7-22 DNB has an ROI of 10%+, it is odds on that system 7-22 H/A probably has a higher return.

Breaking it down then, the following systems have an ROI of 10%+. System 22 (H/A & DNB), System 6-22 (H/A & DNB), System 7-21 (H/A & DNB), System 7-22 (H/A & DNB), System 8-22 (H/A & DNB), System 6-21 (H/A), System 8-21 (H/A).

Hence, one could argue that I only really have 7 systems with a season and a bit results with an ROI above 10%. However, I only have 11 of these systems, so therefore, 7 of the 11 systems from last season have an ROI of 10%+.

Apologies if I’m boring anyone slightly but I know it is sometimes difficult to judge whether a set of football ratings have an edge or not. I know it more than anyone as over the past 2 years, I’ve often wondered whether I’d created an edge or not. It’s always difficult to know how many live results you need to see before you believe you have an edge. 100, 200, 500, 1,000, 2,000, 5,000……

After last weekend, I now have 4,771 proofed bets from the 20 systems. If you treat H/A and DNB as separate systems as I tend to do, then that doubles the number of proofed bets to 9,542 bets.

Do I believe I have an edge using my football ratings? Well, at the end of this month, this will be exactly two years since I started out on this journey to find an edge on football. I think for the first time in all this time, I actually believe deep down that I have created an edge for myself (and those others following) in this market. I will have proofed 5,000 bets (10,000 if we include DNB) and I think that sample is enough evidence in my eyes to show that an edge exists.

Obviously, it is one thing to find an edge in a market but it is even more difficult to maintain the edge. As well as keeping ahead of bookmakers, I also know that my ratings are similar in some aspects to many others who sell football tips for example. I didn’t come up with the idea of shot supremacy ratings (I wish I had as I’d get better odds on many of my bets!) and therefore, at some point, someone smarter than me will come along and create a set of ratings that are better than mines. After all, I’ve done the same to others over the past season and a bit.

In the meantime, we should all enjoy this while it lasts.

Midweek Bets

2011-12-06T09:18:00.001Z

Here’s the bets for tonight. Only really one game that matters although it doesn’t appear on too many systems. May look like a strong bet at first glance but in reality, it appears on the 6 new systems which aren’t as good as the systems from last season, so I’d be more inclined to believe the established systems that it is a fairly weak bet.

Anyway, we’ll see what happens.

The Football Analyst Bets for 6th December

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Bath Bath 5.00 3.75
06-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Griimsby v Mansfield Mansfield 3.17 2.26

System 7
None

System 8
None

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Bath Bath 5.00 3.75

System 22
None

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Bath Bath 5.00 3.75

System 6-22
None

System 7-21
None

System 7-22
None

System 8-21
None

System 8-22
None

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Tamworth Tamworth 3.75 2.70
06-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Bath Bath 5.00 3.75
06-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Griimsby v Mansfield Mansfield 3.17 2.26

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Bath Bath 5.00 3.75

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Bath Bath 5.00 3.75

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Bath Bath 5.00 3.75

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Bath Bath 5.00 3.75

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Bath Bath 5.00 3.75

System TOX
None

System STOY
None

System STOZ
None

From the sublime to the ridiculous......

2011-12-04T22:50:00.002Z

If there is one thing I’ve learned over the past 2 years, it’s that when things are going like a dream, you’ll soon get brought down to earth. No matter how good things are going, the next poor run is just waiting to creep up on you. Well, this weekend was a real weekend of two halves.

Having been following these systems for 2 years now, I sort of know what to expect and when things click, I honestly don’t believe I’ve seen another gambling system that looks so good. As I was watching events unfold on Saturday, I was sort of thinking to myself that it can’t honestly get better than this.

Burnley at 6.5 beat West Ham from a goal behind, Barnsley at 4.0 throw away a 3-0 lead and come back to win 4-3, St Johnstone beat Hearts at odds of 4.25, Inverness beat St Mirren at 4.00 and Watford score a late goal at 3.10 to beat Ipswich. If these results happened in a month of bets, you’d be pleased but for them to happen on the same day, it really is amazing!

42 bets on the combined systems on Saturday, 54.75pts profit and seriously, I’m thinking to myself, this can’t last! I’ve followed up a record month of over 100pts on these systems with a day which has made over 50pts. The new systems didn’t do bad either with a profit of 30.25pts from 32 games. Unbelievable. Absolutely sublime……

Roll on Sunday.

4 bets appearing on multiple systems including Everton at 1.75. I was thinking to myself, at the very least, if Everton win, it will be a very, very good weekend.

0-1, 0-1, 0-1 and 1-2. 4 games, 4 losers. Ridiculous!

Of course, if I break the weekend down, the disappointing aspect is that the 3 highest rated bets this weekend lost. Aberdeen, Birmingham and Everton were the 3 biggest bets for anyone following the systems and at the end of the day, all 3 lost. However, these selective systems with the 30%+ ROI so far this season have to hit some losers at some point, so I’m not overly concerned. Disappointed for anyone following system 7-22 for example as they hit 2 losers but then again, the ROI drops to a paltry 36% for the season after this weekend. Hardly a disaster.

Anyway, enough of my ramblings. Onto the results.

Algorithm one had 13 bets this weekend. A profit of 13.35pts for H/A betting and a profit of 7.01pts for DNB betting. Outstanding performance on this algorithm.

Algorithm two had 13 bets this weekend too. A profit of 10.85pts for H/A betting and a profit of 6.24pts for DNB betting. Again, a very good performance from this algorithm.

Algorithm three had 11 bets this weekend and generated a profit of 9.75pts for H/A betting and a profit of 6.05pts for DNB betting. Again, amazing performance from this algorithm.

Usually, when each algorithm does so well, you hope the systems take these bets and reproduce them on as many systems as possible but unfortunately, this weekend, the winners didn’t appear on too many systems and the systems did a remarkable job in filtering out the winners and keeping the losers!

The established systems made a profit of 37.75pts for H/A betting and a profit of 14.61pts for DNB betting. There were 59 bets this weekend, so it was still an amazing ROI overall on the systems. Let’s just say I’ve had worse starts to a month!

The new systems made a profit of 23.25pts for H/A betting and a profit of 14.15pts for DNB betting. There were only 39 bets this weekend, so again, an amazing ROI on these systems too.

Overall, I feel like I should probably be much happier after this weekend than I am. I made a profit from the systems I follow, I’m hoping some others did too but I find it hard to be overly excited knowing that system 7-22 had 2 losers this weekend. On the other hand, the 6 combined systems made a profit of 12.2pts from 23 games, so I’d have taken that to start the month if offered it. Over 50% ROI and I'm feeling a bit flat after the weekend!

I’ll be back with the midweek bets on Tuesday morning. There’s a couple of Championship games this midweek along with a full card in the Bsq Premier.

Weekend Bets

2011-12-02T22:30:00.000Z

Here's the bets for the weekend. A fairly busy weekend considering the number of leagues in play but as usual, we'll see what happens.

I'll be back after the weekend with the results as usual.

The Football Analyst Bets for 3rd/4th December

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Barrow v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 3.75 2.70
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Bath v Telford Bath 2.50 1.76
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Newport v Lincoln Newport 2.00 1.39
03-Dec-11 Championship Brighton v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.40 2.42
04-Dec-11 Championship Cardiff v Birmingham Birmingham 3.70 2.67
03-Dec-11 Championship Ipswich v Watford Watford 3.10 2.19
03-Dec-11 Championship Peterboro v Barnsley Barnsley 4.00 2.94
03-Dec-11 Championship West Ham v Burnley Burnley 6.50 4.85
03-Dec-11 Premiership Blackburn v Swansea Swansea 3.72 2.67
04-Dec-11 Premiership Everton v Stoke Everton 1.75 1.28
03-Dec-11 SPL Hearts v St Johnstone St Johnstone 4.25 3.00
03-Dec-11 SPL Kilmarnock v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.50 2.50
03-Dec-11 SPL St Mirren v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.86

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
04-Dec-11 Premiership Everton v Stoke Everton 1.75 1.28
04-Dec-11 Championship Cardiff v Birmingham Birmingham 3.70 2.67
03-Dec-11 SPL Kilmarnock v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.50 2.50
03-Dec-11 SPL St Mirren v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.86

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03-Dec-11 SPL Kilmarnock v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.50 2.50

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Barrow v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 3.75 2.70
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Darlington v Forest Green Forest Green 3.20 2.28
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Newport v Lincoln Newport 2.00 1.39
03-Dec-11 Championship Brighton v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.40 2.42
04-Dec-11 Championship Cardiff v Birmingham Birmingham 3.70 2.67
03-Dec-11 Championship Ipswich v Watford Watford 3.10 2.19
03-Dec-11 Championship Peterboro v Barnsley Barnsley 4.00 2.94
03-Dec-11 Championship West Ham v Burnley Burnley 6.50 4.85
04-Dec-11 Premiership Everton v Stoke Everton 1.75 1.28
04-Dec-11 Premiership Wolves v Sunderland Sunderland 3.23 2.28
03-Dec-11 SPL Hearts v St Johnstone St Johnstone 4.25 3.00
03-Dec-11 SPL Kilmarnock v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.50 2.50
03-Dec-11 SPL St Mirren v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.86

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03-Dec-11 Championship Brighton v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.40 2.42
04-Dec-11 Championship Cardiff v Birmingham Birmingham 3.70 2.67
03-Dec-11 Championship Ipswich v Watford Watford 3.10 2.19
04-Dec-11 Premiership Everton v Stoke Everton 1.75 1.28
03-Dec-11 SPL Hearts v St Johnstone St Johnstone 4.25 3.00

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Barrow v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 3.75 2.70
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Newport v Lincoln Newport 2.00 1.39
03-Dec-11 Championship Brighton v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.40 2.42
04-Dec-11 Championship Cardiff v Birmingham Birmingham 3.70 2.67
03-Dec-11 Championship Ipswich v Watford Watford 3.10 2.19
03-Dec-11 Championship Peterboro v Barnsley Barnsley 4.00 2.94
03-Dec-11 Championship West Ham v Burnley Burnley 6.50 4.85
04-Dec-11 Premiership Everton v Stoke Everton 1.75 1.28
03-Dec-11 SPL Hearts v St Johnstone St Johnstone 4.25 3.00
03-Dec-11 SPL Kilmarnock v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.50 2.50
03-Dec-11 SPL St Mirren v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.86

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03-Dec-11 Championship Brighton v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.40 2.42
04-Dec-11 Championship Cardiff v Birmingham Birmingham 3.70 2.67
03-Dec-11 Championship Ipswich v Watford Watford 3.10 2.19
04-Dec-11 Premiership Everton v Stoke Everton 1.75 1.28
03-Dec-11 SPL Hearts v St Johnstone St Johnstone 4.25 3.00

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
04-Dec-11 Championship Cardiff v Birmingham Birmingham 3.70 2.67
04-Dec-11 Premiership Everton v Stoke Everton 1.75 1.28
03-Dec-11 SPL Kilmarnock v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.50 2.50
03-Dec-11 SPL St Mirren v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.86

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
04-Dec-11 Championship Cardiff v Birmingham Birmingham 3.70 2.67
04-Dec-11 Premiership Everton v Stoke Everton 1.75 1.28

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03-Dec-11 SPL Kilmarnock v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.50 2.50

System 8-22
None

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Barrow v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 3.75 2.70
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Darlington v Forest Green Forest Green 3.20 2.28
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Newport v Lincoln Newport 2.00 1.39
03-Dec-11 Championship Brighton v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.40 2.42
04-Dec-11 Championship Cardiff v Birmingham Birmingham 3.70 2.67
03-Dec-11 Championship Peterboro v Barnsley Barnsley 4.00 2.94
03-Dec-11 Championship West Ham v Burnley Burnley 6.50 4.85
04-Dec-11 SPL Dundee Utd v Celtic Dundee Utd 6.50 4.88
03-Dec-11 SPL Hearts v St Johnstone St Johnstone 4.25 3.00
03-Dec-11 SPL Kilmarnock v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.50 2.50
03-Dec-11 SPL St Mirren v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.86

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Barrow v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 3.75 2.70
04-Dec-11 Championship Cardiff v Birmingham Birmingham 3.70 2.67
03-Dec-11 SPL Kilmarnock v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.50 2.50

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Barrow v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 3.75 2.70
04-Dec-11 Championship Cardiff v Birmingham Birmingham 3.70 2.67
03-Dec-11 SPL Kilmarnock v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.50 2.50

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Barrow v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 3.75 2.70
04-Dec-11 Championship Cardiff v Birmingham Birmingham 3.70 2.67
03-Dec-11 SPL Kilmarnock v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.50 2.50

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Barrow v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 3.75 2.70
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Darlington v Forest Green Forest Green 3.20 2.28
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Newport v Lincoln Newport 2.00 1.39
03-Dec-11 Championship Brighton v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.40 2.42
04-Dec-11 Championship Cardiff v Birmingham Birmingham 3.70 2.67
03-Dec-11 Championship Peterboro v Barnsley Barnsley 4.00 2.94
03-Dec-11 Championship West Ham v Burnley Burnley 6.50 4.85
03-Dec-11 SPL Hearts v St Johnstone St Johnstone 4.25 3.00
03-Dec-11 SPL Kilmarnock v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.50 2.50
03-Dec-11 SPL St Mirren v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.86

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Barrow v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 3.75 2.70
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Newport v Lincoln Newport 2.00 1.39
03-Dec-11 Championship Brighton v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.40 2.42
04-Dec-11 Championship Cardiff v Birmingham Birmingham 3.70 2.67
03-Dec-11 Championship Peterboro v Barnsley Barnsley 4.00 2.94
03-Dec-11 Championship West Ham v Burnley Burnley 6.50 4.85
03-Dec-11 SPL Hearts v St Johnstone St Johnstone 4.25 3.00
03-Dec-11 SPL Kilmarnock v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.50 2.50
03-Dec-11 SPL St Mirren v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.86

System TOX
None

System STOY
None

System STOZ
None

Monthly Review Completed

2011-11-30T15:01:00.001Z

I’ve updated the monthly results section on the blog. If you click on the link and scroll down, you’ll find it! You could also navigate via the tabs at the top. ;)

http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/p/201112-monthly-results.html

As always, lots of ways to look at the results of these systems but a few highlights which stand out to me which people reading the blog may not know are:

• The 11 TFA established systems (or the ones alive last season!) achieved their best results in terms of pts won since December 2008. When you consider Dec 2008 had 359 bets and achieved 128pts profit, then a profit of 107.7pts this month from only 224 bets can possibly be described as a better performance.
• In terms of ROI (48.1%), it was the 3rd best month from the two fully backtested years and last season’s live results. Hence, the 3rd best month from the last 31 months of results. In a way, this doesn’t tell the full story as May-11 is the 2nd best month as it had an ROI of 52.3% but that was only over 101 bets.
• The systems which are being proofed by the Secret Betting Club for my proofed results (the 6 combined systems) are now sitting with an ROI of 17.1% since they went live. This is over a sample of 1,364 bets. November-11 is the highest month by far for ROI at 72.5% although the pts won 52.2pts is 1.6pts less than last month! Hence, the two best months these proofed results have had is the last 2 months.

I could go on and on about the results but as I always say, it’s only one month. If we look at all the established systems in total for this season, they have now had 977 bets and generated an ROI of 12.2%. They achieved 9.4% last season across 2,784 bets, so based on the number of bets, we’re only 1/3 of the way through the season. A long way to go but the systems are in a good position so far. Given they suffered record losses in September, it’s amazing how quickly things can turn at this game.

I’ll be back on Friday with the weekend bets. I’ll probably do another post tomorrow though showing all the live results on each system to date on a single page. I like analysing this as it is interesting to compare the systems from this season with last season as well as comparing a system with DNB returns against H/A returns. All very interesting.

Hope you all had a good month too. :)

2011-11-30T11:54:00.004Z

One of the best things about following systems and having no human intervention is that there are no mind games involved when it comes to the betting side of things. After Saturday’s loss, I would have happily settled for seeing no bets this midweek on the systems if I’m being perfectly honest. Therefore, when I was doing the work to pull out the bets, I cringed a little when I saw Newport as a bet.

Not only did they appear on every established system and the 3 similar game models (ignore the fact the DNB systems didn’t appreciate how strong a bet they were!), but they were also one of the highest rated bets I’ve had all season. Simply, according to my ratings, Hayes were playing like a team that should be bottom of the league and although Newport were very inconsistent, they were playing so much better than their league position suggested, it was impossible to believe that they were 7/4 to win this game (or 2.62 when I gave the bet out).

They’d beaten Fleetwood (top 3 team) 4-1 away from home and played them off the park, lost narrowly to Tamworth (top half side), beat Kettering easily 3-1 (worst team in the league aside from Hayes on my ratings at the moment), drew 0-0 away at Wrexham (top 3 team), lost narrowly at home to Ebbsfleet, drew 2-2 with Grimsby (top half side) and lost narrowly to Luton (top 3 side) 1-0 on Saturday by conceding a last minute goal.

Based solely on the last 7 games, Newport are a top half side and considering they’d played the top 3 sides in the league and competed very well, then they should have made mincemeat of a team like Hayes who had lost 5 of their last 6 games!

It’s not often ratings work out as well as they did in that game last night but Newport should win that game roughly 50% of the time according to my ratings. I therefore smiled when they started at 11/10 in places at kick-off after steaming in from an opening show of 7/4 and the fact they were 3-0 up at half time was very sweet.

I’m sure everyone in the market who uses football ratings in this league had this one down as a value away win but again, the systems were able to spot how good a bet this actually was and I therefore staked it accordingly, along with others who follow the systems I suspect.

Anyway, it’s only one game but it felt great to bounce back after Saturday with such a strong bet that won so easily.

Algorithm one had 2 bets and 2 winners. A profit of 2.45pts and 1.25pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm two had the same 2 bets and 2 winners. A profit of 2.45pts for H/A betting and 1.25pts DNB.

Algorithm three didn’t have such a great night. 4 bets and only one winner. A loss of 1.35pts for H/A betting and a loss of 1.10pts for DNB betting.

With the 100% record on the first two algorithms, the established systems had to have a good night. A profit of 22.15pts for H/A betting and a profit of 11.60pts. There were 16 bets.

The new systems didn’t have such a good night but it wasn’t too bad. A profit of 4.90pts for H/A betting and a profit of 1.37pts for DNB betting. There were 11 bets.

Overall then, a really good night for the established systems. When you consider they lost 28pts on Saturday for H/A and 16pts for DNB, to win 22pts and 11.60pts back so quickly is a great end to the month. For those following the combined systems 6-21 thru to 8-22, all of the losses were recouped from the weekend, so we can start next month from a decent closing position this month.

I’ll get on with the monthly review and update on here when it’s done.

Lambs to the slaughter..........

2011-11-29T15:14:00.003Z

Well, I never know where to start after really poor weekends as whatever way I look at the weekend, it is poor. I looked at odds portal on Sunday evening and I think that there were only 5 away wins at 2/1+ from all the games played and with Huddersfield losing last night, that means 5 wins from 64 games. Considering my ratings specialise in aways priced 2/1+, you can see how difficult the weekend was for my systems! Looking back now, I actually think they did well to lose as little as they did as it could have been absolute carnage this weekend for anyone backing the sort of teams I back, week in, week out.

Algorithm one had 15 bets and only found 2 winners. There were only 5 draws in here too, so a massive 8 losers. A loss of 7.10pts for H/A betting and a loss of 4.19pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm two also had 15 bets and only managed to find 2 winners too. There were 5 draws in there too, along with 8 losers. A loss of 7.25pts for H/A betting and a loss of 4.29pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm three also had 15 bets and again, only managed to find 2 winners! Can’t recall that happening before where all 3 algorithms had the same number of picks in the same weekend. A loss of 10.65pts for H/A betting and a loss of 6.85pts for DNB betting.

Clearly, the systems didn’t have a lot to work with this weekend, so it was lambs to the slaughter.

The established systems lost a total of 28.40pts from 61 games. DNB betting fared a bit better with a loss of 15.94pts.

The new systems had a nightmare weekend. A loss of 46.30pts from 55 games for H/A betting but interestingly, DNB did much better. DNB betting only suffered a loss of 20.7pts.

H/A betting has easily outpointed DNB betting over the past 7 weeks, so it’s no surprise to see DNB betting make some ground over the weekend. As always happens though, DNB betting only works during really bad weekends when you hit more draws than you want to!

I think it’s important that I don’t get too downhearted about the weekend’s losses. It’s never nice to lose money at this game but when I look at this month in total, there is a lot to be pleased about so far.

Interestingly, if Newport win tonight, this month will go down as the most successful month for my established systems for 3 seasons! Of course, it’s more likely they don’t win tonight which means this month is only the 4th best month since my systems went live. I say only the 4th best month but if someone had offered me that at the start of the month, I’d have bitten their hand off!

I’ll update the results from tonight tomorrow and I’ll also write a monthly review before the weekend.

Midweek Bets

2011-11-29T10:05:00.002Z

Here's the bets for tonight.

I'll get the weekend results posted later today.

The Football Analyst Bets for 29th November

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/11/2011 Championship Reading v Peterborough Reading 1.80 1.35
29/11/2011 Bsq Prem Hayes & Yeading v Newport Newport 2.65 1.90

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/11/2011 Championship Reading v Peterborough Reading 1.80 1.35
29/11/2011 Bsq Prem Hayes & Yeading v Newport Newport 2.65 1.90

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/11/2011 Bsq Prem Hayes & Yeading v Newport Newport 2.65 1.90

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/11/2011 Championship Reading v Peterborough Reading 1.80 1.35
29/11/2011 Bsq Prem Hayes & Yeading v Newport Newport 2.65 1.90

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/11/2011 Bsq Prem Hayes & Yeading v Newport Newport 2.65 1.90

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/11/2011 Championship Reading v Peterborough Reading 1.80 1.35
29/11/2011 Bsq Prem Hayes & Yeading v Newport Newport 2.65 1.90

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/11/2011 Bsq Prem Hayes & Yeading v Newport Newport 2.65 1.90

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/11/2011 Championship Reading v Peterborough Reading 1.80 1.35
29/11/2011 Bsq Prem Hayes & Yeading v Newport Newport 2.65 1.90

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/11/2011 Bsq Prem Hayes & Yeading v Newport Newport 2.65 1.90

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/11/2011 Bsq Prem Hayes & Yeading v Newport Newport 2.65 1.90

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/11/2011 Bsq Prem Hayes & Yeading v Newport Newport 2.65 1.90

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/11/2011 Championship Leicester v Blackpool Blackpool 4.68 3.48
29/11/2011 Championship Southampton v Hull Hull 6.11 4.61
29/11/2011 Championship Watford v Bristol City Bristol City 3.34 2.39
29/11/2011 Bsq Prem Hayes & Yeading v Newport Newport 2.65 1.90

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/11/2011 Championship Leicester v Blackpool Blackpool 4.68 3.48

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/11/2011 Championship Leicester v Blackpool Blackpool 4.68 3.48

System 6-32
None

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/11/2011 Bsq Prem Hayes & Yeading v Newport Newport 2.65 1.90

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/11/2011 Bsq Prem Hayes & Yeading v Newport Newport 2.65 1.90

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/11/2011 Bsq Prem Hayes & Yeading v Newport Newport 2.65 1.90

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/11/2011 Bsq Prem Hayes & Yeading v Newport Newport 2.65 1.90

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/11/2011 Bsq Prem Hayes & Yeading v Newport Newport 2.65 1.90

Weekend Bets

2011-11-25T21:27:00.002Z

Another fairly quiet weekend. It's funny, when there are less than 150 system bets, it seems like a quiet weekend at the moment. I must be going mad!

3 big games for the systems at high odds. Could do with an Inverness, Dundee Utd and Bristol Rovers treble this weekend but I'd probably settle for one of the three winning! :)

High average odds this weekend, so hopefully the systems can hit enough winners. Always worry on weekends like this as a wipeout isn't impossible. Hopefully not this weekend though.

Good luck.

The Football Analyst Bets for 26th-28th November

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/11/2011 Bsq Prem Alfreton v Hayes & Yeading Alfreton 2.25 1.63
26/11/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Cambridge Cambridge 2.88 2.06
26/11/2011 Bsq Prem Stockport v Southport Stockport 2.75 1.98
26/11/2011 Championship Cardiff v Notts Forest Notts Forest 4.06 2.88
26/11/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Oldham Oldham 3.26 2.36
28/11/2011 League 1 Charlton v Huddersfield Huddersfield 3.00 2.15
26/11/2011 League 1 Chesterfield v Sheff Utd Chesterfield 4.00 2.96
26/11/2011 League 2 Accrington v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.87
26/11/2011 League 2 Oxford v Cheltenham Oxford 2.10 1.52
26/11/2011 League 2 Southend v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 6.00 4.59
26/11/2011 League 2 Swindon v Aldershot Aldershot 5.05 3.77
27/11/2011 Premiership Swansea v Aston Villa Swansea 2.25 1.61
26/11/2011 Prermiership Sunderland v Wigan Wigan 5.65 4.18
26/11/2011 SPL Hearts v Inverness Inverness 4.50 3.21
26/11/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.50 2.50

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/11/2011 League 1 Charlton v Huddersfield Huddersfield 3.00 2.15
27/11/2011 Premiership Swansea v Aston Villa Swansea 2.25 1.61
26/11/2011 Prermiership Sunderland v Wigan Wigan 5.65 4.18
26/11/2011 SPL Hearts v Inverness Inverness 4.50 3.21
26/11/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.50 2.50

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/11/2011 League 1 Charlton v Huddersfield Huddersfield 3.00 2.15

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/11/2011 Championship Blackpool v Birmingham Birmingham 3.18 2.26
26/11/2011 Championship Brighton v Coventry Coventry 5.40 3.97
26/11/2011 Championship Cardiff v Notts Forest Notts Forest 4.06 2.88
26/11/2011 League 1 Carlisle v Colchester Carlisle 2.10 1.53
28/11/2011 League 1 Charlton v Huddersfield Huddersfield 3.00 2.15
26/11/2011 League 2 Accrington v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.87
26/11/2011 League 2 Burton v Wimbledon Wimbledon 4.00 2.86
26/11/2011 League 2 Southend v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 6.00 4.59
26/11/2011 League 2 Swindon v Aldershot Aldershot 5.05 3.77
26/11/2011 Prermiership Man Utd v Newcastle Newcastle 11.00 8.80
26/11/2011 Prermiership Sunderland v Wigan Wigan 5.65 4.18
27/11/2011 Prermiership Swansea v Aston Villa Swansea 2.25 1.61
26/11/2011 Prermiership West Brom v Tottenham West Brom 4.33 3.18
26/11/2011 SPL Hearts v Inverness Inverness 4.50 3.21
26/11/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.50 2.50

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/11/2011 Championship Cardiff v Notts Forest Notts Forest 4.06 2.88
26/11/2011 SPL Hearts v Inverness Inverness 4.50 3.21
26/11/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.50 2.50

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/11/2011 Championship Cardiff v Notts Forest Notts Forest 4.06 2.88
28/11/2011 League 1 Charlton v Huddersfield Huddersfield 3.00 2.15
26/11/2011 League 2 Accrington v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.87
26/11/2011 League 2 Southend v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 6.00 4.59
26/11/2011 League 2 Swindon v Aldershot Aldershot 5.05 3.77
26/11/2011 Premiership Man Utd v Newcastle Newcastle 11.00 8.80
26/11/2011 Premiership Norwich v QPR QPR 3.55 2.56
27/11/2011 Premiership Swansea v Aston Villa Swansea 2.25 1.61
26/11/2011 Prermiership Sunderland v Wigan Wigan 5.65 4.18
26/11/2011 SPL Hearts v Inverness Inverness 4.50 3.21
26/11/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.50 2.50

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/11/2011 Championship Cardiff v Notts Forest Notts Forest 4.06 2.88
26/11/2011 SPL Hearts v Inverness Inverness 4.50 3.21
26/11/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.50 2.50

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/11/2011 League 1 Charlton v Huddersfield Huddersfield 3.00 2.15
27/11/2011 Premiership Swansea v Aston Villa Swansea 2.25 1.61
26/11/2011 Prermiership Sunderland v Wigan Wigan 5.65 4.18
26/11/2011 SPL Hearts v Inverness Inverness 4.50 3.21
26/11/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.50 2.50

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/11/2011 SPL Hearts v Inverness Inverness 4.50 3.21
26/11/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.50 2.50

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/11/2011 League 1 Charlton v Huddersfield Huddersfield 3.00 2.15

System 8-22
None

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/11/2011 Bsq Prem Alfreton v Hayes & Yeading Alfreton 2.25 1.63
26/11/2011 Championship Blackpool v Birmingham Birmingham 3.18 2.26
26/11/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Millwall Millwall 3.28 2.34
26/11/2011 League 1 Carlisle v Colchester Carlisle 2.10 1.53
28/11/2011 League 1 Charlton v Huddersfield Huddersfield 3.00 2.15
26/11/2011 League 2 Accrington v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.87
26/11/2011 League 2 Burton v Wimbledon Wimbledon 4.00 2.86
26/11/2011 League 2 Crewe v Hereford Hereford 4.20 3.03
26/11/2011 League 2 Southend v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 6.00 4.59
27/11/2011 Prermiership Swansea v Aston Villa Swansea 2.25 1.61
26/11/2011 Prermiership West Brom v Tottenham West Brom 4.33 3.18
26/11/2011 SPL Celtic v St Mirren St Mirren 13.40 11.34
26/11/2011 SPL Hearts v Inverness Inverness 4.50 3.21
26/11/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.50 2.50
26/11/2011 SPL St Johnstone v Hibernian Hibernian 3.75 2.68

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/11/2011 League 2 Accrington v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.87
26/11/2011 League 2 Crewe v Hereford Hereford 4.20 3.03
26/11/2011 League 2 Southend v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 6.00 4.59
27/11/2011 Prermiership Swansea v Aston Villa Swansea 2.25 1.61
26/11/2011 SPL Hearts v Inverness Inverness 4.50 3.21
26/11/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.50 2.50
26/11/2011 SPL St Johnstone v Hibernian Hibernian 3.75 2.68

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/11/2011 Prermiership Swansea v Aston Villa Swansea 2.25 1.61

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/11/2011 League 2 Accrington v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.87
26/11/2011 League 2 Southend v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 6.00 4.59
27/11/2011 Prermiership Swansea v Aston Villa Swansea 2.25 1.61
26/11/2011 SPL Hearts v Inverness Inverness 4.50 3.21
26/11/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.50 2.50

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/11/2011 Championship Blackpool v Birmingham Birmingham 3.18 2.26
26/11/2011 League 1 Carlisle v Colchester Carlisle 2.10 1.53
28/11/2011 League 1 Charlton v Huddersfield Huddersfield 3.00 2.15
26/11/2011 League 2 Accrington v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.87
26/11/2011 League 2 Burton v Wimbledon Wimbledon 4.00 2.86
26/11/2011 League 2 Southend v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 6.00 4.59
27/11/2011 Prermiership Swansea v Aston Villa Swansea 2.25 1.61
26/11/2011 Prermiership West Brom v Tottenham West Brom 4.33 3.18
26/11/2011 SPL Hearts v Inverness Inverness 4.50 3.21
26/11/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.50 2.50

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/11/2011 League 1 Charlton v Huddersfield Huddersfield 3.00 2.15
26/11/2011 League 2 Accrington v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.87
26/11/2011 League 2 Southend v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 6.00 4.59
27/11/2011 Prermiership Swansea v Aston Villa Swansea 2.25 1.61
26/11/2011 SPL Hearts v Inverness Inverness 4.50 3.21
26/11/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.50 2.50

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/11/2011 League 2 Southend v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 6.00 4.59
27/11/2011 Prermiership Swansea v Aston Villa Swansea 2.25 1.61
26/11/2011 Prermiership West Brom v Tottenham West Brom 4.33 3.18
26/11/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.50 2.50

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/11/2011 League 2 Southend v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 6.00 4.59
27/11/2011 Premiership Swansea v Aston Villa Swansea 2.25 1.61
26/11/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.50 2.50

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/11/2011 Bsq Prem Alfreton v Hayes & Yeading Alfreton 2.25 1.63
26/11/2011 League 2 Southend v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 6.00 4.59
27/11/2011 Premiership Swansea v Aston Villa Swansea 2.25 1.61
26/11/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.50 2.50

Doesn't get much better than this....

2011-11-21T10:43:00.005Z

As the title suggests, I’m not sure my ratings and systems can do much better than they did this weekend. It’s one thing to select a list of games where there is value in backing one of the sides and in my opinion, this isn’t anywhere nearly as difficult as people imagine but to narrow these games down and select the very best games that offer value, this is the thing that separates a good set of ratings from a great set of ratings. As I’ve shown over the past 18 months though, my ratings can do this effectively (some of the time!) but when it works, it doesn’t half look spectacular.

This weekend, the top 8 teams on Algorithm one (system 7) returned 7 winners. The odds of the winners were 4.77, 4.50, 3.20, 3.13, 2.62, 2.00 and 1.80. The loser was Newcastle at odds of 11.40. I can forgive the algorithm that one!

The top 4 teams on algorithm two (system 22) didn’t do too badly either. 4 selections, 4 winners. The odds were 4.81, 4.50, 3.13 and 2.62. Not a bad performance.

Not to be outdone, the top 3 teams on algorithm three (system 33) had 3 selections, 3 winners. 4.50, 3.13 and 2.00 were the odds of these selections.

One great thing about having so much data is that I can look at losing runs and determine how unlikely the run was to occur and it helps keep me sane. Well, it also works the other way too. Looking at my historical results quickly this morning, the systems are on their 3rd or 4th best run historically and the weekend past was maybe the 4th or 5th best weekend ever in terms of ROI, given the number of selections. It’s always hard to judge good/bad spells as pts won/lost doesn’t always tell the story as it depends on the number of bets too.

As someone said to me in an email this weekend, to see the backtested results of my systems is very good. To see it happen in practice when they are following the bets week in, week out is something very special.

Now, if I wind the clock back 12 months, the returns on the systems were much in line with where they are now this season. Things were looking great and I thought I had built something really special here. We all know what happened last season after the systems peaked at Christmas and therefore, with over 70% of the season to go, I know only too well that there is a long, long, long way to go this season. However, you have to enjoy moments like these when they come along as they don’t come along too often and they never stay around for long at all!

Anyway, onto the results from this weekend.

Algorithm one had 22 bets and hit 9 winners. A profit of 9.47pts for H/A betting and a profit of 2.94pts for DNB betting. (Bear in mind that system 7 took these 22 bets, selected 8 of them and hit 7 winners.)

Algorithm two had 14 bets and hit 8 winners. A profit of 15.36pts for H/A betting and a profit of 9.42pts for DNB betting. (Bear in mind that system 22 took these 14 bets, selected 4 of them and hit 4 winners.)

Algorithm three had 14 bets and hit 6 winners. A profit of 6.41pts for H/A betting and a profit of 1.85pts for DNB betting. (Bear in mind that system 33 took these 14 bets, selected 3 of them and hit 3 winners.)

Overall, knowing what you know above, it’s clear that the systems were going to have a great weekend.

The established systems from last season had 73 bets, hit 46 winners and made a profit of 87.98pts for H/A betting. DNB betting lagged behind a little but a profit of 50.05pts from 73 games isn’t bad!

The new systems from this season had 49 bets, 24 winners and a profit of 35.46pts for H/A betting and a profit of 19.90pts for DNB betting.

Overall, all the systems combined had 122 bets, hit 70 winners (57%), made a profit of 123.44pts for H/A betting and a profit of 69.95pts for DNB betting.

As I said at the start, weekend’s like that don’t happen too often. Maybe once a season. Enjoy it. :)

There are no bets this midweek. Only a couple of games take place in the Championship and although Burnley are a marginal value bet, they don’t appear on any system. Dunfermline are also a value bet in the SPL but appear on no systems. The systems can have a midweek off.

Weekend Bets

2011-11-18T23:30:00.000Z

A quiet weekend apart from systems 6 and 21 which appear to have an insane number of bets which is becoming the norm this season.

Rochdale to win is probably the key game for me this weekend but at odds of 7/2, I can't be overly confident. Throw in Newcastle and Brighton at their odds and this weekend could be tricky I suspect.

Anyway, we'll see what happens.

The Football Analyst Bets for 19th-20th November

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/11/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Forest Green Forest Green 3.20 2.31
19/11/2011 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Darlington Ebbsfleet 2.10 1.52
19/11/2011 Bsq Prem Southport v Bath Bath 5.00 3.70
20/11/2011 Championship Leicester v Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 5.58 4.15
20/11/2011 Championship Millwall v Bristol City Bristol City 5.12 3.75
19/11/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Ipswich Notts Forest 2.00 1.45
19/11/2011 Championship Southampton v Brighton Brighton 7.56 5.89
19/11/2011 League One Preston v Rochdale Rochdale 4.50 3.38
19/11/2011 League One Scunthorpe v Hartlepool Scunthorpe 2.00 1.47
19/11/2011 League One Sheff Utd v Carlisle Carlisle 4.33 3.21
19/11/2011 League One Tranmere v Sheff Wed Tranmere 2.63 1.87
19/11/2011 League One Walsall v Bury Bury 3.13 2.22
19/11/2011 League Two Aldershot v Gillingham Aldershot 2.40 1.72
19/11/2011 League Two Bristol Rovers v Barnet Barnet 4.33 3.22
19/11/2011 League Two Macclesfield v Accrington Accrington 3.40 2.40
19/11/2011 League Two Northampton v Shrewsbury Northampton 3.31 2.34
19/11/2011 Premiership Man City v Newcastle Newcastle 11.40 9.39
19/11/2011 Premiership Stoke v QPR QPR 4.77 3.47
19/11/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Motherwell Aberdeen 2.65 1.87
19/11/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v Hearts Dundee Utd 2.62 1.83
19/11/2011 SPL Hibernian v Kilmarnock Hibernian 2.50 1.78
19/11/2011 SPL St Mirren v Dunfermline St Mirren 1.80 1.32

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/11/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Forest Green Forest Green 3.20 2.31
19/11/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Ipswich Notts Forest 2.00 1.45
19/11/2011 League One Preston v Rochdale Rochdale 4.50 3.38
19/11/2011 League One Walsall v Bury Bury 3.13 2.22
19/11/2011 Premiership Man City v Newcastle Newcastle 11.40 9.39
19/11/2011 Premiership Stoke v QPR QPR 4.77 3.47
19/11/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v Hearts Dundee Utd 2.62 1.83
19/11/2011 SPL St Mirren v Dunfermline St Mirren 1.80 1.32

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/11/2011 SPL St Mirren v Dunfermline St Mirren 1.80 1.32

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/11/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Forest Green Forest Green 3.20 2.31
19/11/2011 Championship Southampton v Brighton Brighton 7.56 5.89
19/11/2011 League One Oldham v Chesterfield Oldham 2.00 1.47
19/11/2011 League One Preston v Rochdale Rochdale 4.50 3.38
19/11/2011 League One Tranmere v Sheff Wed Tranmere 2.63 1.87
19/11/2011 League One Walsall v Bury Bury 3.13 2.22
19/11/2011 League Two Aldershot v Gillingham Aldershot 2.40 1.72
19/11/2011 League Two Bristol Rovers v Barnet Barnet 4.33 3.22
19/11/2011 League Two Macclesfield v Accrington Accrington 3.40 2.40
20/11/2011 Premiership Chelsea v Liverpool Liverpool 4.81 3.53
19/11/2011 Premiership Man City v Newcastle Newcastle 11.40 9.39
19/11/2011 Premiership Stoke v QPR QPR 4.77 3.47
19/11/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v Hearts Dundee Utd 2.62 1.83
19/11/2011 SPL Hibernian v Kilmarnock Hibernian 2.50 1.78

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/11/2011 League One Preston v Rochdale Rochdale 4.50 3.38
19/11/2011 League One Walsall v Bury Bury 3.13 2.22
20/11/2011 Premiership Chelsea v Liverpool Liverpool 4.81 3.53
19/11/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v Hearts Dundee Utd 2.62 1.83

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/11/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Forest Green Forest Green 3.20 2.31
19/11/2011 Championship Southampton v Brighton Brighton 7.56 5.89
19/11/2011 League One Preston v Rochdale Rochdale 4.50 3.38
19/11/2011 League One Tranmere v Sheff Wed Tranmere 2.63 1.87
19/11/2011 League One Walsall v Bury Bury 3.13 2.22
19/11/2011 League Two Aldershot v Gillingham Aldershot 2.40 1.72
19/11/2011 League Two Bristol Rovers v Barnet Barnet 4.33 3.22
19/11/2011 League Two Macclesfield v Accrington Accrington 3.40 2.40
19/11/2011 Premiership Man City v Newcastle Newcastle 11.40 9.39
19/11/2011 Premiership Stoke v QPR QPR 4.77 3.47
19/11/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v Hearts Dundee Utd 2.62 1.83
19/11/2011 SPL Hibernian v Kilmarnock Hibernian 2.50 1.78

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/11/2011 League One Preston v Rochdale Rochdale 4.50 3.38
19/11/2011 League One Walsall v Bury Bury 3.13 2.22
19/11/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v Hearts Dundee Utd 2.62 1.83

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/11/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Forest Green Forest Green 3.20 2.31
19/11/2011 League One Preston v Rochdale Rochdale 4.50 3.38
19/11/2011 League One Walsall v Bury Bury 3.13 2.22
19/11/2011 Premiership Man City v Newcastle Newcastle 11.40 9.39
19/11/2011 Premiership Stoke v QPR QPR 4.77 3.47
19/11/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v Hearts Dundee Utd 2.62 1.83

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/11/2011 League One Preston v Rochdale Rochdale 4.50 3.38
19/11/2011 League One Walsall v Bury Bury 3.13 2.22
19/11/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v Hearts Dundee Utd 2.62 1.83

System 8-21
None

System 8-22
None

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/11/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Forest Green Forest Green 3.20 2.31
19/11/2011 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Darlington Ebbsfleet 2.10 1.52
19/11/2011 Bsq Prem Southport v Bath Bath 5.00 3.70
19/11/2011 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Lincoln Lincoln 5.50 4.13
20/11/2011 Championship Millwall v Bristol City Bristol City 5.12 3.75
19/11/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Ipswich Notts Forest 2.00 1.45
19/11/2011 Championship Southampton v Brighton Brighton 7.56 5.89
19/11/2011 Championship Watford v Portsmouth Watford 2.46 1.75
19/11/2011 League One Preston v Rochdale Rochdale 4.50 3.38
19/11/2011 League One Scunthorpe v Hartlepool Scunthorpe 2.00 1.47
19/11/2011 League One Tranmere v Sheff Wed Tranmere 2.63 1.87
19/11/2011 League One Walsall v Bury Bury 3.13 2.22
19/11/2011 League Two Aldershot v Gillingham Aldershot 2.40 1.72
19/11/2011 League Two Macclesfield v Accrington Accrington 3.40 2.40

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/11/2011 Bsq Prem Southport v Bath Bath 5.00 3.70
19/11/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Ipswich Notts Forest 2.00 1.45
19/11/2011 League One Preston v Rochdale Rochdale 4.50 3.38
19/11/2011 League One Walsall v Bury Bury 3.13 2.22
19/11/2011 League Two Macclesfield v Accrington Accrington 3.40 2.40

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/11/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Ipswich Notts Forest 2.00 1.45
19/11/2011 League One Preston v Rochdale Rochdale 4.50 3.38
19/11/2011 League One Walsall v Bury Bury 3.13 2.22

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/11/2011 Bsq Prem Southport v Bath Bath 5.00 3.70
19/11/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Ipswich Notts Forest 2.00 1.45
19/11/2011 League One Preston v Rochdale Rochdale 4.50 3.38
19/11/2011 League One Walsall v Bury Bury 3.13 2.22
19/11/2011 League Two Macclesfield v Accrington Accrington 3.40 2.40

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/11/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Forest Green Forest Green 3.20 2.31
19/11/2011 Championship Southampton v Brighton Brighton 7.56 5.89
19/11/2011 League One Preston v Rochdale Rochdale 4.50 3.38
19/11/2011 League One Tranmere v Sheff Wed Tranmere 2.63 1.87
19/11/2011 League One Walsall v Bury Bury 3.13 2.22
19/11/2011 League Two Aldershot v Gillingham Aldershot 2.40 1.72
19/11/2011 League Two Macclesfield v Accrington Accrington 3.40 2.40

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/11/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Forest Green Forest Green 3.20 2.31
19/11/2011 Championship Southampton v Brighton Brighton 7.56 5.89
19/11/2011 League One Preston v Rochdale Rochdale 4.50 3.38
19/11/2011 League One Tranmere v Sheff Wed Tranmere 2.63 1.87
19/11/2011 League One Walsall v Bury Bury 3.13 2.22
19/11/2011 League Two Aldershot v Gillingham Aldershot 2.40 1.72
19/11/2011 League Two Macclesfield v Accrington Accrington 3.40 2.40

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/11/2011 League One Preston v Rochdale Rochdale 4.50 3.38
19/11/2011 League Two Aldershot v Gillingham Aldershot 2.40 1.72
19/11/2011 SPL Hibernian v Kilmarnock Hibernian 2.50 1.78

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/11/2011 League One Preston v Rochdale Rochdale 4.50 3.38
19/11/2011 League Two Aldershot v Gillingham Aldershot 2.40 1.72
19/11/2011 SPL Hibernian v Kilmarnock Hibernian 2.50 1.78

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/11/2011 League One Preston v Rochdale Rochdale 4.50 3.38
19/11/2011 League Two Aldershot v Gillingham Aldershot 2.40 1.72

TOX, STOY and STOZ Updated

2011-11-15T12:25:00.002Z

With the International break, I decided it was worth taking the time to do one of the mundane and boring jobs that needed to be done at some point.

I can’t recall if I mentioned it on the blog or not if I’m honest but I’ve definitely mentioned it on the SBC forum. After coming up with the Similar Games Model systems (TOX, STOY and STOZ) and discussing them in emails with a few people, the overwhelming feedback was that the system had too few bets and therefore, this really limited the potential of this system in terms of others following the bets. In addition, it would have taken about 10 years of bets before we knew if the systems really had an edge or not.

After a bit of thought, just before the season started, I stripped out a lot of the filters on this system which meant I was including many more games than before. It was always going to reduce the returns but it was a price worth paying.

Based on my previous backtesting, I expected these systems to have about 30-40 bets each this season. We’re halfway through November and they have already had 43,37 and 41 bets respectively, so clearly, the systems aren’t exactly the same systems which had the backtested results I was showing on the blog.

I said last week that I would go back and backtest these systems next Summer if the systems did well this season. If they flopped this season, then they’d be dropped anyway as they do take a lot of time to find the bets for each week.

Anyway, due to the fact I’ve had a couple of hours spare at night due to the fact there have been no games, I’ve gone back and backtested the systems with the reduced filters and updated all the historical results in my spreadsheet. I’ve also updated the blog with these system results. Just so you know, it was easier for me to include this season’s results too in the analysis as it was too much work to strip them out and then put them back in etc.

You can find the updated backtested results here if you scroll down:

http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/p/new-systems-for-201112-season.html

For those that are only interested in the summary of results by season, here they are:

Now, the first observation anyone can make here (you don’t need to be a shi* hot analyst to notice this!) is that this season’s results look nothing like the historical results. People will automatically jump to the conclusion that these 3 systems are backfitted to the max and won’t work and in a way, they are correct. The systems are backfitted to the max as it’s the way the Similar Games Model works.

However, they are backfitted on data from 2000-2006. All of the historical results I am showing here are simply backtested results. There are NO backfitted results in these 5 years of results in the table above. I could show the results from backfitting (50%+ ROI in every season) but they are meaningless. Backfitting is just a means to an end.

Clearly, some people reading this won’t believe this fact and will consign these systems to the scrap heap along with the other thousands of backfitted systems that fail when they go live. Of course, these systems may well end up on the scrap heap as I say above as I’m not going to track them beyond this season if they are loss making!

However, if you analyse these systems in more depth, there is lots of hope here I believe and I’ve said it before on the blog and I’ll state it again now but long-term, I think these 3 systems may well be the best systems I actually have. The fact they are loss making after 40 bets is irrelevant really.

The systems are actually making a good profit on the Home bets and yet, are losing on the Away bets. This contradicts every one of my other systems as Aways have made all the profits and Homes have really struggled this season so far. Therefore, these systems are able to identify the best Home bets that my ratings algorithms can find. This is definitely worth knowing for future reference.

Secondly, when you study the drawdowns on these systems this season, it is perfectly in line with the historical drawdowns. Therefore, these systems are more than likely suffering from short-term variance and at some point, they will start producing profits hand like they have in the past I suspect. The Away bets are the bets that cause the variance on these systems but they are also the bets that drive the substantial pts profit each season, so as soon as the Away bet strike rate picks up, the systems P&L will pick up.

I thought it was worth sharing this on the blog. I know people are very sceptical about systems and backfitting in particular but if there is one thing I’ve shown so far on this blog, it’s that I am able to build a system, test it via backtesting and then launch it in a live environment and achieve results close to the results in backtesting. The fact it hasn’t happened for these 3 systems yet isn’t down to the systems in my opinion. This season just hasn’t been in line with past seasons so far………