September 2010
A good start to the season with 11 of the 13 single bet systems managing to make a profit this month. Overall, a profit of 51pts was achieved from 294 bets across all systems at an ROI of 17.4%.
The month started badly but then slowly turned around and a large amount of profit in the month was generated on the 28th when all of the systems at least broke-even.
4 of the 5 multiple systems had losing months this month which isn't the best start but then again, they are very variable on a monthly basis.
System 19 has started the season well though with 3 winning bets from 3 bets placed thus far. Unfortunately, the other 4 systems have eaten away all the profit this system has made. Interestingly, the strike high was unusually high this month at 52.9%. I expect this to drop as the season progresses.
Let's see what next month brings.....
October 2010
I don’t think months come much better than this month. Every one of the single bet systems made a profit this month and even all the multiple bet systems made a profit!
The single bet systems made a profit of 85.9pts from 358 bets. Exactly 50% of the games were winning games this month. The ROI was a measly 24%. :)
The month started like a dream on the 2nd with a nice profit made by all systems and after that, it felt like we were treading water most of the month but looking back, we’ve still made some good profits in the latter part of the month also and of course, the month ended well.
The multiple bets made a substantial profit on the 2nd of October which isn’t surprising really. The rest of the month was loss making but again, it’s hard to worry too much about this when they make 241ps profit!
It’s been a dream start to this season for the systems but I know that a losing run may not be too far away, so it’s important to keep a level head.
Hopefully we can consolidate these profits next month.
November 2010
Well, 3 months gone of the season and I’m starting to think I might have just stumbled across something this season with the footie. I’m trying my best to keep my feet on the ground (along with a bunch of others in the TFA forum following these bets too!) but it’s been an amazing start to the season.
All of the single bet systems made a profit this month again and an overall profit of 83.8pts was achieved at 24%. The selective systems again had a dream month and the ROI’s on some of these systems at the moment is unreal. I’m sure a correction is due on these for sure!
2 of the multiple bet systems had large losses, 2 had large wins and one system made a 9.7pt profit. Overall, another 163pt profit to add to the coffers.
It’s hard to know what to make of this at the moment. The results so far this season have been beyond expectations and it’s been a dream start to my football punting but I know a correction is probably due at some stage. Hopefully not though!
I’ll be back with another review next month.
December 2010
Instead of the guys in the TFA forum trying to keep my feet on the ground, I’m trying to keep their feet on the ground after this month!
Another unreal month for the systems with the single bet systems achieving a profit of 78.5pts and an ROI of 40%. If I wasn’t following the bets myself, I wouldn’t believe this was possible on footie betting!
The multiple bets had an OK month with another nice profit on the month overall with 3 systems profitable and 2 systems having small losses.
There were no exceptional days during this month. However, the systems were very consistent and managed to eek out profits most days and overall, that adds up to a nice profit on the month.
4 months in and 4 large monthly profits. I’m waiting on something going wrong but we’ll see what happens next month as it should be a busy month to lots of rearranged games.
January 2011
Well, the run had to end at some point. Although the single bet systems made a profit of 16.2pts (4.2% ROI) on the month, systems 21-23 had a bad month and that also resulted in systems 6-21 and 6-22 having losing months. These systems have only had a handful of losing months in 4 seasons, so it's not too alarming I hope.
The month started very well and on the 18th, the systems were 82pts up on the month and on course for the 5th amazing month in a row. However, the last 2 weeks of the month were a disaster and in the end, it felt quite fortunate to escape with a profit on the month at all.
The multiple bets were a mixed bunch this month. System 16 had an amazing month (which I managed to catch in my betting) and 2 of the 4 other systems had good months. However, the other 2 systems had terrible months with 1 winning bet from 12 placed between them.
Overall, the multiple bets still made a profit of 138pts and I can't moan too much at that.
So, 5 months of the season gone and 5 months of profit on the single bets and multiple bets. The overall ROI is in excess of the long-term average and it has been a dream season to date.
February 2011
Well, I sort of knew this month was coming I think after the amazing start to the season. In a way, the fact the season has been going so well has made this month much tougher to take. In addition, I'm probably not alone in getting carried away and overstaking these systems after the run up to Christmas and the last 6 weeks have been very hard to swallow.
The month actually started OK with a few small winning days but two bad weekends followed in quick succession and the 12th was the worst day the systems had experienced for a very long time! That changed the whole tone of the month and the rest of the month became very difficult with losses on most days apart from the odd bet.
Overall, the single bet systems lost 66.4pts and every system made a loss. The strike rate was only 33% in the month which is well below the long-term average of circa. 50%.
The multiple system bets were a nightmare this month and due to the fact I've been playing these bets from February, they have had a disproportionate effect on my betting bank. There were only 2 winning bets from 32 bets staked which is a strike rate of 6.3%!
The losses were fairly substantial and amounted to 284pts!
Systems 17 and 20 nearly lost 100pts each which would be circa. 20% of their suggested betting bank in one month!
Looking at all the systems as a whole, they lost 350pts in the month which is quite amazing. Obviously, it shouldn't impact too much on the betting bank if staked properly but I know from the TFA forum that many (including myself!) have been overstaking these bets slightly and this month will cause us to take some action for the remainder of the season.
I deliberately keep these monthly reviews fairly short and this month is no exception. It's only meant to be a quick run down of how the month went and I don't want to go into too much detail as most of the information is on the regular blog.
You'll see that I've added the DNB and DC returns to my monthly results. Although I'm not tracking them on the blog on a regular basis, there is no reason why I don't do it apart from it becomes a wider table and the pictures are small enough as it is!
Well, after last month's substantial loss, this month was always going to be an important month and it was simply a question of whether the systems would continue going down, steady the ship or bounce back.......
Thankfully for me and anyone else following, they have bounced back this month although depending on what systems you follow, this could be slightly misleading!
Overall, the single bets made a profit of 60.6pts from 375 bets. This is an ROI of 16% which is much in line with the long-term ROI. You will see that playing DNB this month would have resulted in a profit of 63.5pts and an ROI of 16.9%. Amazingly, DC had an exceptional month with a profit of 42pts and an ROI of 11.2%.
Looking at the results by each day this month, there were 16 betting days with 10 winning days and 6 losing days. The month started with an exceptional day and it was a simply of case a trying to hold onto as much of that profit as possible. The fact we managed to add to it as the month went on was a bonus I think.
Looking at each of the systems individually, I know most people play system 8 or 8-21 and 8-22. All 3 systems had decent months but system 8 stole the show from these systems with a profit of 7.6pts and an ROI of 44%. This keeps the season ROI around the 17% mark.
Out of all the systems, system 6 performed the best I think with a profit of 17.6pts at an ROI of 25.5%. An exceptional performance in a single month and gets this system back on track although the season ROI is still low at 5.5%.
Systems 22 and 23 have now made losses for 3 months straight in 2011. Looking at the season as a whole, it isn't a concern as they are still well in profit but it is a bit perplexing why this has happened. A quick look at the DNB/DC analsyis this month (and I can see the last two months) and both of these systems have had too many draws this year. They are making a profit to DNB/DC and yet, they are losing money with traditional H/A betting. Something to keep an eye on I guess.
The multiple bets started the month well but it was all downhill after that! They lost 60.9pts overall which makes it two very bad months in a row but nowhere near as bad as last month's near 284pt loss!
Overall, a decent month I think and this gets the systems back on track this season. There are only two months left this season, so we'll see what happens.
Any questions, please leave a comment.
I'm going to not get into too much detail in this review about stats and how much of a freak I believe this month to be as I want my monthly reviews to be based on fact and not on conjecture and thoughts from me. I'll leave these for my blog writing!
Every system made a substantial loss on the month but the biggest culprit was system 8-22. Until this month, this system was the best system I'd ever seen, not only from a football betting perspective, but from a punting perspective full stop. The system had made 33pts this season before this month from only 77 games. Looking back, it had an ROI of around 35% historically before this season and it was beating that this season until this month! It really did look like the most bullet proof system to follow.
What happened this month? Well, 14 bets and only 1 winner. The system had a strike rate of 53% or thereabouts before this month. Hence, 1 from 14 is a disaster for my best system and the one I believe in the most looking at the historical results and the live results this season.
Looking at the 14 games this month, there were 8 draws in there. Looking at the draws in detail, Luton (7/4) and Rotherham (15/8) both lost injury time leads and on Saturday, Peterboro (13/8) and Hearts (7/4) lost leads in the last 10 minutes of games.
All of these games were roughly 2.75pt swings against me. In a normal month, at least 2/3 of these wouldn't happen and therefore, that can explain why this month was so bad on this system. Again though, in the long-term, it shouldn't matter. It wasn't a good month even if these games had gone my way but by going against me, it turned a poor month into a nightmare month!
Even after this month, system 8-22 is sitting with an ROI of 23.8% this season. Admittedly, this is very disappointing after the first half of the season but looking long-term, it's not been a bad first season for this system.
In terms of the overall systems, the month started with a 55pt loss for the systems which was a nightmare and then a good day on the 16th halved this deficit. Another large loss followed on the 22nd before a mini fightback pulled the deficit back again on the 23rd. The month ended with two horrendous days though.
Looking at Draw No Bet (DNB), it was a losing month also. Importantly though, the losses were only 13pts. February was actually a worse month for DNB as it suffered losses of 21pts in this month.
Not surprisingly then, Double Chance (DC) betting had another good month. A profit of 30pts was achieved and DC has only had one losing month this season and as the other two methods of betting have reduced dramatically in ROI as the season has went on, DC has got better and better which is simply the effect of hitting so many draws after Christmas. When the selections haven't been winning, they've been drawing which helps this method of betting immensely.
Overall then, a nightmare month for the systems unless you were doing something with the draw at the same time.
A quick mention on the multiple bets on system 16-20. If these were draw multiple bets, all my bookmaker accounts would be closed and I'd be living somewhere on a beach after the run from Christmas as they have had a fair few multiple bets up where all the teams have drawn. Unfortunately, due to the fact these are multiple bets involving backing teams to win, this season after Christmas has been grim to say the least! I knew when I started tracking this method of betting that there would be long draw downs but I didn't expect it to be quite as bad as this but then again, we are going through the worst run the systems have ever had, so trying to perm teams isn't going to work too well!
Anyway, all the multiple bets lost again this month with the losses being fairly substantial on most systems. Overall, 300pts was lost. That's about 8% of the bank needed to play these multiple bets I think, so it's a nightmare month again and follows on from disaster of the last few months. 3 of the systems are now loss making this season after being very profitable to Christmas!
I'll see what happens in May......
May 2010
The final monthly review of the season and due to the fact there were only 105 bets in the month, I'll keep this very brief as you can't draw too many conclusions on such a small data sample.
It was another profitable month for the systems overall with a profit of 56.5pts. The ROI was a cracking 53.8%.
Obviously, due to the fact there were less bets, it means that each game that appeared amounted to a higher proportion of the P&L than in a usual month and therefore, it means it is much easier to hit a very high (or very low!) ROI in the month.
The month only covered 3 days of bets, with the first Saturday producing a profit of 29pts, the next Saturday producing a loss of 12pts and then Sunday producing a profit of 39pts.
Overall, it's hard to complain too much about this month and a good month was needed after what happened in April. To keep things in perspective, the systems have only won back 53% of what was lost in April though.
DNB betting did well this month again with a profit of 35.9pts. You can see well why DNB is a method that some people prefer as on Saturday when St Johnstone drew 0-0, DNB returned stakes but on the other two days when the systems did well, DNB won a little bit less than traditional H/A betting. Overall, not as profitable as traditional H/A betting but it does appear to give a smoother ride this month (albeit, based on 3 days of results!)
The multiple systems had another nightmare month and these haven't worked out as I hoped they would do. These have provided an interesting trial this season but overall, the returns are too variable and the losing runs are too long for these bets to be seriously considered as something worth following in future.
In terms of individual systems, System 6 and System 21 won the most points this month with 8.3pts and 7.1pts respectively. It's hard to comment on individual systems though due to the lack of bets this month. They all did well!
In summary, the systems have had 7 winning months and 2 losing months this season. Unfortunately for me and anyone following, the losing months wiped out 40% of the winning months profits this season!
