System 31
This highlights all the value bets on the 3rd TFA rating algorithm. Unlike the previous 2 algorithms, these ratings are backfitted on Draw No Bet returns, so the type of bets thrown up on the 3rd algorithm will be very different to the previous algorithms.
Average odds on this system are 5/2 and 66% of the bets are away bets. Looking at DNB odds, the average odds come out at 6/4.
Backing the teams to win has created an average profit of 10pts a month and backing the teams DNB has created average monthly profits of 7pts.
The system has suffered 8 losing months from 46 for traditional H/A betting but 9 losing months for DNBs.
Largest drawdown for H/A betting is 31pts but 18pts for DNB.
Suggested Bank for 2011/12 Season - 70pts for H/A betting or 45pts for DNB
System 32
This system excludes any low value bets appearing on system 31.
Average odds on this system are 11/5 and average odds for DNBs are 5/4. 60% of the bets are away bets.
The average monthly profit for backing teams to win outright is 7pts and for DNB, it is 4.5pts a month.
The largest drawdown for H/A betting is 18pts and for DNB it is 15pts.
Suggested Bank for 2011/12 Season - 50pts for H/A betting or 40pts for DNB
System 33
This system only includes the very strongest bets from these ratings.
The average odds are 15/8 for backing teams to win and 8/11 for DNB. 65% of the bets are home bets.
The average monthly profit is 4pts for H/A betting and 3pts for DNB betting. Around 25% of the months are losing months which is interesting given that this system has the highest returns.
The highest drawdown is 14pts for backing outright or 10pts for DNB.
Suggested Bank for 2011/12 Season - 40pts for H/A betting or 25pts for DNB
System 6-32
This system only includes teams that appear on system 6 and system 32. When a team appears on both systems, it appears on this system.
Average odds are 3/1 for backing the team to win and 5/4 for DNB.
The average monthly profit is 6pts and 3.6pts for DNB. 25% of the months are losing months which is fairly high.
The highest drawdown is 18pts for backing outright and 14pts for DNB which is fairly high.
Suggested bank for 2011/12 Season – 45pts for H/A betting or 35pts for DNB.
System 21-31
This system only includes teams that appear on system 21 and system 31. When a team appears on both systems, it appears on this system.
Average odds are 15/8 for backing outright and Evs for DNB.
The average monthly profit is 5pts and 3pts for DNB. Around 25% of the months are losing months.
The highest drawdown is 26pts for backing outright (which is very high but appears to be a one-off) and the highest drawdown for DNB is 10pts.
Suggested bank for 2011/12 Season – 65pts for H/A betting or 30pts for DNB.
System 6-21-31
The systems only includes teams that appear on system 6,21 and 31. When a team appears on all 3 systems, it appears on this system.
Average odds are 19/10 for backing outright and Evs for DNB.
The average monthly profit is 5.5pts and for DNB it is 3.1pts. 25% of the months are losing months.
The highest drawdown is 17pts for backing outright and 11pts for DNB.
Suggested bank for 2011/12 Season – 45pts for H/A betting or 30pts for DNB.
System TOX
This is the first system from the newly developed Similar Games Model.
The results look very good for the past few seasons (over 30% ROI!) and there are around 100 bets each season.
The highest drawdown is around 10pts for H/A betting and 9pts for DNB betting.
System STOY
This the second system from the newly developed Similar Games Model.
Has a very similar look to the system as TOX but there are less bets on this system.
The highest drawdown is just over 8pts for both H/A and DNB betting.
System STOZ
This is the 3rd system from the newly developed Similar Games Molde.
Similar to the other systems, there is a trend of a reducing number of bets each season but the last couple of seasons have been consistent with 84 bets in them.
Due to the low volume of bets, you can see regular spells of 6 months or so where no profits have been made. Hence, you’ll need patience to follow this system (or any of these Similar Games systems I think).
The highest drawdown is a substantial 14pts for H/A and 10pts for DNB betting.
Suggested Bank for 2011/12 Season – 45pts for H/A and 30pts for DNB
