TFA Systems Review Excel Document

Below is an attachment which will form the basis for the 2011/12 Systems Reviews.

This attachment should be looked at in conjunction with the blog postings over the next week or so. Once all individual system reviews are carried out, they will be included on a single page on the blog entitled Systems Reviews 2011/12. I hope to do the system reviews over the next week or so,  so keep reading the blog.

Key things to remember when using data like this are:

·         The historical results aren’t meant to be an indication of future profitability. Yes, the systems are built looking at historical results but one season of proofed results is worth 100 seasons of backtested results.  Hence, place much more weight on live results.

·         Don’t worry too much about the fact the performance appears to worsen over time on many systems. It is the way the systems are built. Other services tweak the ratings and systems after every season and then restate the backtested results. This isn’t happening here, so the live results are really live results and not backtested results after tweaks to the systems!  Put simply, there are many systems that look great during backtesting and backfitting but fail when they go live. These systems (touch wood) have shown they work live and will hopefully continue to do so.

·         Analysing backtested/live results may help you spot potential weaknesses in the rating algorithms or systems but be VERY careful about increasing or decreasing stakes based on a certain criteria unless it is based on a large sample of live data.  IMO, a large sample needs to be hundreds of bets, possibly thousands of bets. If you start interfering with the system bets and trying to cherry pick a certain type of selection, you are likely to decrease your chances of winning long-term.

·         Don’t buy into trends too much as it is only a trend, not a guaranteed change. Hence, a league which may be the best season one season may be the worst next season.  Likewise, a league which is losing one season may be winning next season. Don’t fall into the trap of backfitting your own portfolio to follow!

·         Be careful about writing off the Asian Handicap returns as clearly, when you see the graphs compared to the outright returns, they are nowhere nearly as good. However, for a subsection of bets, it may be the case that AH can smooth your returns.  Then again, they may not!

·         There are very minor data issues apparent within the data.  With any large sample of data, there can be small discrepancies thrown up within the data.  As far as I am aware, none of the issues are material or even close to being material.  For example, a Premiership Away bet may have slipped onto a system even though they were not to meant to appear on that system. I know why (Premiership was spelt incorrectly for that bet!) but all bets stand as given. Likewise, I’ve put the odd bet on 6-21 last season even though it didn’t appear on 21 as it was dropped due to a price change at the last moment. Things like this aren’t material!

OK, without further ado, here is the attachment for you to download.

http://thefootballanalyst.com/files/Final_End_of_Season_1_12_Review.xlsx

The spreadsheet is 9MB in size and therefore, may take a while to download depending on your connection speed. The two sheets with the actual data in it (I’ve pasted it in this overall sheet as values!) were about 100MB in size!

If there are any questions, post them up here or comment on the individual blog posts. If people spot a glaring error within the data, please email me at graemedand@hotmail.co.uk and I’ll take a look at it!

Once the system reviews are completed, I’ll tidy up the data sitting behind the analysis and I will be sharing the historical results with all members of the 2012/13 season. This data will NOT be shared with non members. The purpose of the additional data release is to help Excel savvy members do their own analysis to help form a view of systems to follow for next season. Those without the Excel skills required can rely on my help this Summer as promised!

Enjoy.

I also meant to say that there are 160 tables showing the profitability of all 20 systems, split by season, league, season and league, by month, by Home and Away, by Home and Away and Season, by League and Home and Away, by Season and League and Home and Away.  It also shows the profitability of backing outright, using AH0, AH0.25 and AH0.50.

There are also 120 graphs in here too for those that like pictures, showing P&L since inception, P&L live and drawdowns for each of the 4 methods of betting.

I appreciate that this isn’t everyone’s cup of tea but then again, I hope some of you appreciate the time and effort that goes into producing something like this. :)

Future Analysis.......

A very quick update.

I'm getting OK with the spreadsheet with the systems analysis for this season but it's slow going really. I'm hoping to have it completed some time next week.  I've had a few requests from blog readers who are considering subscribing next season to see the results in depth in Excel, so I may well release the sheet on the blog as well as to subscribers.  Not sure yet.

After that is done next week, I'll tidy up the results data I have and share the historical results with members. This will allow those who like Excel or databases to play with the data and hopefully look at developing systems for next season.

As I mentioned on the last blog post, I've added a new page to the FAQ section on the site called 'Future Analysis'.  Quite simply, this will be a log of any analysis work that members want me to carry out this Summer. I'll do the work and then do posts on the blog with the findings.

I've put up some things I've been asked to date but I know other people have asked other questions, I just can't remember them! If anyone has any questions that you've either already asked me to look at or would like me to look at this Summer, just drop me an email and I'll add them to the list.  I can't promise I'll look at everything on the list this Summer but I'd like to do that. If I feel like it's going to help people maximise profits, I'll do it.

Apart from that, it's fairly quiet at the moment as I work away on the systems review analysis sheet.  I'm looking forward to reading the Secret Betting Club's view on the football season for the services they monitor and I believe their next magazine is released next week. Will be really interesting to see how TFA fared last season in comparison to the more established services they monitor. I sort of lost track last season of how the other services were doing as I didn't really have time to look at other service results from when I returned from Honeymoon in February. Up until then, I was holding my own I suspect!  :)

A couple of subscribers have asked what the Euro 2012 game is going to be for those that have joined the service to date for next season.  Not really thought about it if I'm honest but I'll make something up.  Either going to make it a correct score competition or I can use the odds for each game and come up with a virtual betting game. Quite like the thought of a virtual betting game but I obviously don't want a great deal of admin considering my time is meant to spent developing systems and not administering a game! I'll have something made up by the time I close off the entry to the comp on the 3rd of June.

Lastly, I've had a few questions from potential subscribers asking about the odds quoted and whether they could be matched on Betfair or with limited accounts.  All the odds quoted are on the blog, so if you use odds portal, you can see the historical odds and the odds at kick-off in the games. I'd just concentrate on 6/21+ as this is the bets under most pressure each weekend.  You'll generally some of them are heavily backed but some of the bigger prices drift.  As I've said before, with the ROI's on some of my systems, even though you may not be able to match my odds due to bookmaker restrictions, you can work out yourself what the impact would have been if you were taking 5% less etc.  I'll be amazed if anyone comes up with any other conclusion than the fact the systems are still highly profitable.

Hope you all enjoy your weekend.

2011/12 Season Review

Just a very quick post to say that the season review is up on the blog.  You can read it here.

The last piece of work I need to do to review this season is obviously to review each of the systems in detail. Due to the fact it isn’t my intention to tweak the ratings or the systems this Summer that are already live, I don’t intend on going into massive depth about the performance of the systems this season.

I’ll try to pick out a few highlights, maybe revisit the betting banks, bet expectation levels etc. but unlike last season, I will release the reviews in Excel to the subscribers who have subscribed for next season.  Hence, people can spend hours looking at tables and tables of numbers and charts rather than me having to do it!

Of course, I’ll answer any questions or do any further analysis people ask for. For those who are subscribing for next season or the few of you who have already subscribed, I’ll be putting up a page across on the site where I’ll start to log all your questions or bits of analysis to do and when we get to July onwards, I’ll work through these questions and post replies so all members can see them.  I know I’ve already been asked lots of things but when that page appears and if you see your question isn’t on it, email me and I’ll get it added!

Hopefully, by the time July comes, I’ll have the Euro systems built, shared the results on these and we can start looking at how to maximise profits next season. I did the same last Summer but the number of subscribers will hopefully be higher this season, so I guess that means more work for me than ever before. 

Someone asked me if I planned on updating the results pages across at the new site. Obviously, the answer is Yes but I need time to do it and for TOX, STOY and STOZ, I don’t have the full backtested results yet, so I’ll need to do that first.  There is no rush as the results are on the blog if anyone wants to see them.

So, next steps are the system reviews.  Already started pulling together the spreadsheet but this is a big task, so don’t expect to see too much from me for a few days on here!

I don’t want to keep plugging the service on the blog but I am serious about the fact the discount will end on the 3^rd of June.  I’ve had a lot of people leave comments over the past few months saying they’re interested in joining the service but so far, I’ve had a couple of new members and a handful of current subscribers resubscribe. Aside from the fact you get a cheaper price, it’s better for me if people can join in the next few weeks as it means I can concentrate on the other systems this Summer instead of answering emails and doing admin. 

Right, best get on with reviewing these systems…..

The journey continues.......

Good evening.

It feels a little strange writing this on the blog as I’ve deliberately steered clear of using the blog for any form of advertising for the service. For 2 seasons, the blog and service have run in parallel with all bets being sent out to members and then appearing on the blog at a later time.

Well, this post changes all of this and for the first time ever, I’m openly giving blog readers the chance to join the main service. 

If you take yourself over to http://thefootballanalyst.com/ you can take a look at what’s being offered. I should stress the website remains a work in progress and long-term, I would like the site to become the home of all my analysis in the form of PDF articles and therefore, there will be a library of content available to all members relating to all the systems.  There are also no results on the website as yet but they are all on the blog!

I’ve lost count of how many topics I’ve discussed on the blog since its inception but going forward, with more systems, more leagues, more ways to play the bets, I can’t see the amount of analysis reducing anytime in the near future!

The membership for new members for next season is £180 although as a thank you to blog readers over the last 2 seasons, if you join up before the 3rd of June, you can join for £150. The discount code you need is tfablogdiscount30.  If you enter this code in the discount box, the price should only be £150.  Anyone joining after 3rd June will pay full price.  http://thefootballanalyst.com/subscriptions-page/

All members who have joined before 3rd June will be eligible to play the free TFA subscriber Euro 2012 correct score competition.  There will be a first prize of £150 for the winner and I can’t enter!  I ran a similar competition for Cheltenham and a member won a free subscription for this season. :)

The reason for the early bird discount and the Euro 2012 idea is so I can attract the number of members I need for the service as early as possible. I don’t want to reach the stage where it comes to mid summer and I’m having to go out and try to attract more subscribers. If people are interested, join asap. If not, don’t join but once places are full, there will be nowhere to follow the bets next season. They won’t be posted on the blog before the games take place next season.

I don’t have to repeat this I’m sure but as I said at the outset to the first members who joined the service, the subscription fee isn’t a share of the profits I expect you to make, it is a fee to cover my time, effort, hardwork and dedication that goes into keeping the ratings updated, getting the systems bets formulated every week and sent out on time. It also pays for the time I spend analysing data, answering emails, supplying advice and so on.  There is no charge for the intellectual property involved in the ratings this season. If I was charging a fee based on the returns to date and expected profitability, it would cost much more than £150 to join the service.

If the systems crash and burn next season, as long as the bets are being supplied as expected, these fees will not be refunded under any circumstances. The fee covers the work involved for me next season, not the prospect of making exceptional profits again!

I think the post above gives enough details but if anyone has any questions, please leave a comment on the site or a comment on this post (with an email and I won’t publish the comment) and I will get back to you asap.

Places will be limited to try to protect prices the best I can (I can’t stop people from compounding stakes!) but I don’t envisage any issues with price liquidity given the systems have been highly profitable for blog readers to date when the odds have rebounded after my members have placed their bets.

Thanks,

The Football Analyst

http://thefootballanalyst.com/

8th profitable month in a row!

Just a very quick post to say that the monthly review has been updated for May-12 and is available to read here. (You will need to scroll down to the bottom of the page!)

I’ve also updated the system results as at the end of this season.  You can view these latest results here.

  

I said this at the start of May to all subscribers and probably mentioned it on the blog that I thought May would prove a very difficult month to make a profit.  It wasn’t really linked to the end of season or the fact the ratings would be less reliable, it was simply to do with the fact that with so few bets, variance would play a much bigger part than usual and if one game went against the systems, they’d probably not be able to recover.

I said it in the last post but that happened last weekend with Rotherham and after that, I’d resigned myself to losing this month. Of course, Everton and Inverness this weekend turned the month around and the systems scraped through with another profit.

If I look at the results of all systems now the season is over and look at the ROI’s that have been achieved, it is absolutely unbelievable.  I’ll obviously be starting on the season review next week and the system reviews for this season etc. so I won’t bore you now but if someone had told me that I would beat last season’s performance this season, I wouldn’t have believed them.

The highlight has to be the fact that 10 of the 11 established systems have achieved an ROI of 10%+ this season.  To have 10 systems out of 11 make a return of 10%+ over a season is nothing short of amazing.  It’s not been the easiest season for shots on goal ratings this season (backed up by the results of other tipsters and ratings) but my ratings have outperformed the others in the market by a long, long way.

Last season, the established systems generated a profit of 263pts across 2,784 bets (9.4%). This season, they have generated a return of 293pts across 2,669 bets (11%).

Over both seasons now, these systems have generated a return of 556pts across 5,453 bets (10.2%). Not bad for a set of football systems.

The combined systems have achieved a profit of 305pts across 1,992 bets across both seasons, an ROI of 15.3%. 

Of course, the planning for next season starts now and as mentioned on Friday’s blog post, there will be an announcement tomorrow on the blog regarding next season.  I’m going to be offering some readers the opportunity to join the service for next season if they wish to continue following The Football Analyst on this journey.  More details will be released tomorrow but places will be limited as you’d expect, so people may have to move quickly. Other places will be opened up to SBC members too, so all places will be filled on a first come, first served basis.

Back tomorrow with more details.

A fitting way to end the season......

As the title suggests, I think the systems deserved to end the season with a winning weekend. May-12 was always going to be a tricky month for the systems with so few number of games being played this month and after what happened to Rotherham last weekend, I sort of resigned myself to the fact that the winning monthly run was over for the systems.

When I was looking at the games on Wednesday evening, I was slightly annoyed that Inverness didn’t appear on system 6-8 as system 21 is usually pretty good at spotting a strong home bet but as you would imagine, it didn’t cross my mind to interfere with the system selections.  They know much more than me as I’ve said plenty of times!

I did a quick calculation though and figured that even though Everton were the only bet appearing on the combined systems, if Everton won and Inverness won, it would be enough to ensure the combined systems would achieve their 8^th profitable month in a row and the established systems would also achieve another profitable month. Hence, that was the target this weekend.

It’s hard to describe how proud I am of the systems after the season they’ve just given me and everyone else following but they really pulled it out the bag again this weekend with these two bets.

Inverness were backed down from 2.15 to about 1.80 and Everton were backed down from 2.25 to 2.10.  I know money doesn’t always count for everything in betting but as the systems have shown over thousands of bets now, if you can continue backing at value prices, your ‘edge’ will shine through in the end. Thankfully, both teams didn’t let me down this weekend.

Both teams winning ensured yet another profitable month (monthly review to follow) and it’s a great feeling now the season has ended.

Here’s a roundup from this weekend.

Algorithm One had 2 bets, 1 winner and 1 draw.  A profit of 0.25pts for H/A betting and a profit of 0.64pts for AH0.

Algorithm Two had 2 bets, 2 winners. A profit of 2.4pts for H/A and a profit of 1.19pts for AH0.

Algorithm Three had 3 bets, 2 winners and 1 draw. A profit of 1.4pts for H/A betting and a profit of 1.19pts for AH0 betting.

A winning weekend for all 3 algorithms.

The established systems made a profit of 8.9pts for H/A betting and a profit of 5.04pts for AH0 betting.

The new systems made a profit of 12.45pts for H/A betting and a profit of 6.78pts for AH0 betting.

I can’t get across how relieved I am to end the season with a winning day as I’d have probably been annoyed all Summer if the last month of the season had been a losing month.

I’ll be back later with the monthly review.

Last bets of the season!

Here's the last bets for this weekend.  Keep an eye on the blog early next week for an announcement regarding plans for next season. Spaces are being made available for blog readers, so keep reading the blog!

The Football Analyst Bets for 12th-13th May
System 6
Date	League	Game	Selection	Odds	DNB Odds
13/05/2012	Premiership	Everton v Newcastle	Everton	2.25	1.64
13/05/2012	Premiership	Stoke v Bolton	Bolton	3.03	2.20
System 7
Date	League	Game	Selection	Odds	DNB Odds
13/05/2012	Premiership	Everton v Newcastle	Everton	2.25	1.64
System 8
Date	League	Game	Selection	Odds	DNB Odds
13/05/2012	Premiership	Everton v Newcastle	Everton	2.25	1.64
System 21
Date	League	Game	Selection	Odds	DNB Odds
13/05/2012	Premiership	Everton v Newcastle	Everton	2.25	1.64
12/05/2012	SPL	Inverness v Hibernian	Inverness	2.15	1.55
System 22
None
System 6-21
Date	League	Game	Selection	Odds	DNB Odds
13/05/2012	Premiership	Everton v Newcastle	Everton	2.25	1.64
System 6-22
None
System 7-21
Date	League	Game	Selection	Odds	DNB Odds
13/05/2012	Premiership	Everton v Newcastle	Everton	2.25	1.64
System 7-22
None
System 8-21
Date	League	Game	Selection	Odds	DNB Odds
13/05/2012	Premiership	Everton v Newcastle	Everton	2.25	1.64
System 8-22
None
System 31
Date	League	Game	Selection	Odds	DNB Odds
13/05/2012	Premiership	Everton v Newcastle	Everton	2.25	1.64
12/05/2012	SPL	Inverness v Hibernian	Inverness	2.15	1.55
13/05/2012	Premiership	Stoke v Bolton	Bolton	3.03	2.20
System 32
Date	League	Game	Selection	Odds	DNB Odds
13/05/2012	Premiership	Everton v Newcastle	Everton	2.25	1.64
12/05/2012	SPL	Inverness v Hibernian	Inverness	2.15	1.55
System 33
None
System 6-32
Date	League	Game	Selection	Odds	DNB Odds
13/05/2012	Premiership	Everton v Newcastle	Everton	2.25	1.64
System 21-31
Date	League	Game	Selection	Odds	DNB Odds
13/05/2012	Premiership	Everton v Newcastle	Everton	2.25	1.64
12/05/2012	SPL	Inverness v Hibernian	Inverness	2.15	1.55
System 6-21-31
Date	League	Game	Selection	Odds	DNB Odds
13/05/2012	Premiership	Everton v Newcastle	Everton	2.25	1.64
System TOX
Date	League	Game	Selection	Odds	DNB Odds
13/05/2012	Premiership	Everton v Newcastle	Everton	2.25	1.64
System STOY
Date	League	Game	Selection	Odds	DNB Odds
13/05/2012	Premiership	Everton v Newcastle	Everton	2.25	1.64
System STOZ
Date	League	Game	Selection	Odds	DNB Odds
13/05/2012	Premiership	Everton v Newcastle	Everton	2.25	1.64