Recent Results Update

I signed off the last results update by saying that I would be amazed if the systems managed to retain the profits they achieved in the first half of the month. Well, the systems have even more of a buffer now as they have had another good week or so and if the month finished today, it would be the best month the systems and service has had in the 5 seasons to date so far. Not the best month the UK systems have had in isolation but given how good the Euro systems have done as well, it makes it the best month ever (touch wood it stays that way!).

For me personally, this is currently my 3^rd best month since I started online betting in terms of £ won and 2^nd best month ever in terms of ROI. Still got a weekend left to come which will mean another swing up or down I’m sure but to say I needed a month like this after the start of the season is no understatement. It wasn’t the fact I was losing money (I wasn’t), it was the fact I couldn’t get any momentum going at all and treading water was becoming the norm. As strange as it sounds, treading water isn’t great for the mental side of things for me as it feels like I’m doing a helluva lot of work for nothing. At least when I’m losing money hand over fist, it feels like it’s part of the game. Breaking even over a long period is quite boring!

I remember saying this a few times earlier this season but I thought my ratings and systems were doing well to not lose money given the underlying results and short-term trends for the first few months. It’s always difficult at times to say stuff like this as some people think I’m just papering over the cracks and the edge I had is gone and we’re all about to sink but I never thought this. I was confident we just needed to keep doing what we do and we’d turn things around (always have done before!) and it’s nice it has happened this month. 

Still a long way to go this season and of course, given how quickly things have turned, they could also turn back and a massive losing run could be around the corner (nothing ever surprises me now!) but I think it’s always easier losing money you’ve already won. This season has been the same as last season whereby it felt like we were never in front until after January and therefore, it does make the season seem tougher than it should be.

Here’s the results for the last week or so.

Est Systems

A profit of 36.76pts from 139 bets. Pleasing to see system 6-21 have a good update as it has lagged behind system 6 and 21 all season but has started to finally make some headway this month (as have a lot of systems!)

New Systems

A profit of 7.99pts from 165 bets. A disappointing update I think but given the profits already this month, I’ll never moan too about a small profit!

Misc Systems

A profit of 14.24pts from 101 bets.  Same story as most of the season where 21-31 and 6-21-31 have been doing well but the other 4 systems have struggled. Again, I’ll take the profit though and move on.

Draw Systems

A profit of 8.84pts from 68 bets. Slow going as it has been most of the season and they’ve not really had any momentum going at all this season but after an amazing season last season, maybe we’re seeing a bit of a correction.

Euro Systems

A profit of 16.8pts from 125 bets. Not a massive profit but it continues to build on the returns from earlier this month.

Euro Draw Systems

A profit of 13.6pts from 172 bets. Not the greatest of profits but continues to slowly clawback earlier losses this season.

Overall, a profit of 98.23pts from 770. An ROI of 12.76%. All 6 sets of systems made a profit again!

After a 400pt profit in the first half of the month, to follow up with another big profit is a little bit of a surprise. I can’t recall too many months like this. I’ll say it again (hopefully works like last time!) but the next update is likely to be a losing update! 

January results so far.....

The first results update of 2015 and I’m pleased to say it has been a pretty good start to the year. That’s probably an understatement really and I reckon this is maybe the best results update I’ve ever posted on the blog. Having been doing this for a number of years now, it’s always good when something out of the blue occurs and given this is usually record losses, it’s nice to be posting a record profit.

Anyone who read the monthly review for December will have seen the fact that the ratings weren’t doing too much wrong, the issue was that they were finding too many draws and as I commented on in the post, if you hit a winner rather than a draw, at the average odds I’m playing at, it makes a massive difference to the P&L.

The first two weeks of 2015 has witnessed the ratings firing in winners left, right and centre and although it can’t last, it always feels good to see the ratings making some spectacular profits in a short space of time. As I always say, it’s easy to make money at this game when things are going well and the true test is how well you do when things are going badly and how much you lose during these spells. I feel like my ratings have fought really hard so far this season to not dig themselves in too big a hole during the tough periods and therefore, we’re seeing the benefit of this now we’ve had a good spell.

The only thing I can be sure of is the next downturn isn’t too far away as every time my own P&L hits a new high, I tend to lose money soon after.

Anyway, here’s the results so far for January.

Est Systems

A profit of 116.88pts from 172 bets. Quite amazing returns and to hit 91 winners from 172 bets at an average odds of 3.23 takes some doing. Positive variance I would say!

New Systems

A profit of 99.59pts from 225 bets. More positive variance but given how bad last month was for these systems, it is just getting the losses back!

Misc Systems

A profit of 79.97pts from 121 bets.

Draw Systems

A loss of 15.74pts from 64 bets. I think these systems aren’t getting any breaks at all. So many games are finishing 1-0 at the moment and therefore, they are very close to hitting winners. I did a quick check and I think there is a higher % of games under 2.5 goals this season compared to last season on these systems and yet, the strike rate for draws is 3% points lower. Probably missing 5 or 6 winners which would appear on multiple systems but it’s thin lines and so on.

Euro Systems

A profit of 104.1pts from 130 bets. Another amazing return from these systems this season after a poor December. We’ll know more about these Euro ratings at season end but possibly, these systems may have an edge which would be great news for the long-term.

Euro Draw Systems

A profit 30.3pts from 97 bets. A profit beats a loss I guess but a long way back to break-even for these systems this season, never mind trying to make a profit!

Overall, a profit of 415.1pts from 809 bets. Had worse results updates on the blog in the last 5 years!

Let’s see what the rest of the month brings. I really hope I’m proven wrong but I will be amazed if the profit at the end of the month is this high. It would smash the record for the best ever month I think although it’s not something I really look at for all systems combined. 

Monthly Review of December 2014

Going to keep this monthly review very short. I usually say ‘short’ and write a few thousand words but being honest, I can’t be bothered discussing a month where not a lot went right for the systems. The underlying results were very good generally and therefore, I should have made a small fortune in December. The fact the systems didn’t even make a profit is disappointing but as always, there are possibly some extenuating circumstances for the results.

I’ll quickly touch on it but the Draw strike rate was very low for the month of December (22.8%) for the underlying results in the UK and therefore, the ratings and systems should have been able to capitalise on this. Unfortunately, they didn’t manage to capitalise and some systems have been impacted massively from Draws. You get these little runs where Draws impact my results but this month is maybe one of the worst months I’ve ever seen if I’m honest.

Below is a table which shows the Draw strike rate for the month of December for all 28 UK systems:

Sometimes, I don’t need words to explain. Given the average odds we’re playing at here, each of these Draws loses the systems 1pt when it would have been a 2.5pt profit on average. A swing of 3.5pts on each game on average. Multiply this up by a lot of systems and a lot of bets appearing on a lot of systems and you get the jist of the month for the UK systems. A massive loss that wasn’t far away from a massive profit. The best AH returns I’ve ever posted for a month but not much good for me and everyone else playing outright betting I’m afraid.

If we take the UK Draw systems, with such a low strike rate for Draws generally this month, I would expect these systems to suffer a fairly large loss. The fact they didn’t (they’ll post a small profit) says a lot about these systems and in a season that has been pretty tough to find UK Draws in the lower leagues, my Draw systems are continuing to fight hard to make a profit. Not going to be a vintage season like last season for the UK Draw systems but I’d take any profit given the Underlying results so far for Draws.

This only leaves the Euro leagues. The December strike rate for Draws was an amazing 32.1%. Therefore, I would expect my Euro systems to really struggle and again, the fact they are going to post a break-even month later is testament to these Euro systems. Might have taken me two attempts but I think the Euro ratings may actually have a little bit of an edge which is pleasing after the disaster in the first season with these ratings.

So, with a strike rate of 32.1% in the month for all games if backing Draws, surely to God my Euro Draw systems would have posted a massive profit and recovered all of the season’s losses? Well, no. They’ve posted another mammoth loss and I think this could be the worst set of ratings and systems I’ve ever seen. I thought my first attempt at Euro ratings would never be beaten but these Draw ratings are taking the pis* now with how bad they are.  Not sure I see any hope and the only question for next season is whether I have a second attempt at Euro Draw systems or if I just bin the idea completely. At the moment, I don’t think I can face ever betting on Euro Draws again but I’ll see how the next few months go.

This just about sums up my feelings about the systems this month and constitutes the review of the month at a high level.

I also have lots of other annoyances at the moment if I’m honest. I’m fed up with quoting Pinnacle prices when they are below market average for lower league games and ultimately, it cost the systems over 150pts in the last week of December alone. The liquidity for Boxing Day was appalling when I was releasing the bets and therefore, given the fact I’ve tied myself into quoting Pinny prices only for the past 2 seasons, I was forced to miss bets that were terrible odds with Pinny (other tipsters had released before me, causing the price to crash at Pinny but much better odds were generally available with UK bookmakers and even other Asian bookmakers).

It was as clear as night follows day that the teams would rebound up to kick-off and low and behold, the rebounds happened and the teams won. The fact I was on a couple of other teams (were false value prices as we ended up being on steamers that I didn’t think would win!) in the same games just rubbed salt into the already gaping wounds and to say I felt awful after the Boxing Day massacre is an understatement. In total, I missed 6 bets and of course, all 6 won. Sod’s Law some would say but I would say it’s stupidity on my part to be quoting false Pinnacle prices that are clearly too low to be used for running my value ratings. This needs sorted.

Putting all this together, with the first 3 months of the season being pretty rubbish before December and you start to get an insight into where my mind was at on the 26^th of December.

What has happened since? Well, the big system bets have stopped drawing and started winning, the ratings have hit a bit of form generally and I’ve had a good few Euro winners too (not Euro Draws, they just keep losing money!). Given it’s only the 7^th of January, it’s amazing how quickly things can turn and therefore, this sort of explains why I’m not about to spend a few hours lambasting my systems for a rubbish December. It happened, we were unlucky with hitting too many draws, we move on.

Here’s the results for all the different sets of systems in December.

Est Systems

Here’s the results for algorithms 1 & 2:

Losses on both algorithms and the only plus point (it’s hardly a positive!) is that the losses were with the lower value bets. Anyone filtering the bets by value would have missed some of the carnage this month.

Here’s the results for the 11 systems:

I think all you can say is WOW when you look at the AH returns. The highest AH0.50 monthly returns since the systems went live 5 seasons ago and when you look at the Draw strike rates above, you can see why this has happened.

The massive positive is that both the rating algorithms were rubbish, system 7 was rubbish too and yet, these 3 systems account for nearly all of the loss. Amazing that some systems managed a profit given how bad the ratings were this month and when you think these systems which managed a profit were also heavily impacted by Draws this month, they have been very unlucky.

I could pick any system but I will take system 7-21 as an example. 29 bets this month. 9 winners which resulted in a loss of 6.2pts.  What happened with the other 20 bets?

Well, these 20 bets included 14 Draws and 6 losers. 14 Draws ffs. The odds for these bets were 4.30, 4.07, 3.93, 3.91, 3.50, 3.38, 3.32, 3.27, 3.16, 2.98, 2.90, 2.83, 2.71, 2.22.

The same pattern is repeated across most of these combined systems and quite simply, December was maybe one of the most frustrating months my systems and ratings have ever had. Given the first 3 months were 3 of the toughest months they’ve had, it’s very frustrating that this has happened off the back of the results earlier this season.

Anyway, the Est Systems lost 27.9pts from 468 games.

New Systems

Here’s the results for algorithms 3 & 4:

Amazingly, algorithm 3 managed to make a profit (I do love this system!) and as you can see, it somehow managed to avoid the carnage on the other algorithms of hitting too many Draws. I don’t think it’s any coincidence that if you look back at the first picture in this post, which system had the lowest draw strike rate this month by a long way?  Yip, system 31.

Algorithm 4 lost again (4^th month in a row) and I don’t appear able to stop the slide on this algorithm. I did a fair bit of work on it in the Summer but it hasn’t had the desired effect and the algorithm doesn’t have any edge and is possibly worse than last season!

One point I should make is that the low value bets caused the loss on algorithm 4 and also reduced the profits on algorithm 3. I know it’s not really a positive but given so many following are filtering bets by value, I think it shows these value ratings are at least doing their job to a degree. The ratings haven’t been as good this season as previous seasons but we’re only halfway through the season.

Here’s the results for the New Systems:

At face-value, it looks like a nightmare with a loss of 84pts from 507 bets but the Draw has been a killer. System 31-41 had a disaster and only hit 16 winners from 66 bets. What happened to the other 50 bets?

Well, 25 of them were draws!  Not going to quote all the odds for the bets on this system that were draws but it included odds such as 6.62, 6.33, 4.77, 4.67 and so on. Basically, the system was a couple of winners away from break-even and a handful of winners away from an amazing month. Closer than a loss of 84pts looks.

Having a month in a season where the Draw is a pest is to be expected but to happen after the first few months of the season the systems have had is just irritating really. Things can only get better!

Misc Systems

Here’s the results from the 6 systems:

Ouch!  Same story really with the AH returns being much better due to the impact of the Draws.  Nothing more to add.

A loss of 63.5pts from 290 bets.

Draw Systems

Here’s the results from the 11 systems:

A strange set of results really with the first Draw algorithm losing 3.3pts from 55 bets and the 2^nd draw algorithm making a profit of 12.3pts from 67 bets.

This is the 2^nd best performance in a month by the second algorithm since the ratings went live. Given it has happened in one of the toughest months for Draws since the ratings went live, it’s a very strange result.

I think overall, it’s an achievement for these systems to make a profit this month if I’m honest and therefore, I have to be happy. I keep waiting for it getting a little easier for Draw bettors in the UK leagues but so far, it hasn’t happened yet!

Overall, a profit of 10.9pts from 323 bets.

Euro Systems

Here’s the results:

A loss of 0.1pts from 272 bets. Same story as with the UK systems and the AH returns were better as a result of too many Draws.

Euro Draw Systems

Here’s the results:

A loss of 76.9pts from 291 bets. Given the underlying strike rate was 31% in the month, to only hit a strike rate of 21.3% takes some doing I’m afraid. They keep missing the winners and backing the losers, not really a recipe for a successful set of systems!

Overall, a loss of 241.5pts from 2,151 bets.

Never quoted this before on a monthly review but the returns from AH0.5 betting on all bets this month was 163.7pts! If there was ever a way to illustrate the impact of the draw on the monthly returns, this is it…..

Roll on 2015!

December Results So Far......

I’ve been working flat out to try to bring the results up to date before the Festive period kicks off. It’s a manic few weeks for the UK bets, so there are a lot of bets about to be placed over the next two weeks. It has been another very frustrating month so far and we’re now pretty much 4 months into the season and it’s been the toughest start to the season my ratings and systems have had. The weekend past is probably one of the most frustrating days the systems have had for a long time and off the back of a tough start to the season, we can just do without it I think.

The weekend past was littered with draws and late goals and the combination of both these things turned an OK weekend for my ratings into a disaster in terms of the P&L. Aways this season have never got going at all and my ratings just can’t string a decent period of results together this season. We have the odd good weekend, followed by a poor spell and then the odd good day. When you add up the P&L, it’s not pretty unfortunately and with nearly 40% of the season gone, achieving a profit across all systems combined this season is starting to look quite a challenge.

Anyway, the good news is that we have 60% of the season left and it doesn’t take too much for the season to turn around. A few good sets of results and the P&L will look a lot different but on the other hand, there isn’t a lot of room to manoeuvre if results don’t pick up. Not sure we can continue on like this indefinitely and I really need my ratings to start making some profits rather than treading water!

Here’s the results up to 22^nd December:

Est Systems

A very skewed set of results and as I said in the introduction, the results are littered with draws. A loss of 21.96pts from 261 bets. However, the AH returns were scary and not what we want to see. AH0.50 made a profit of 59.71pts which is an unreal number. The average odds were 1.60 for these bets, so to make a profit of 22.8% at these average odds is a bit silly. Draws have been killing the returns and all it takes is a few of these draws to have been wins and the loss would have been a profit.

New Systems

Another skewed set of results but unfortunately, the losses are horrendous here. A loss of 85.79pts from 298 bets. AH returns were much better but even AH0.50 was only a profit of 11.31pts. Still 97pts better than backing outright though!

A real struggle for these systems and the damage was done very early on in the month.

Misc Systems

Same story again with AH returns being much better. A loss of 31.11pts from 150 bets. AH0.50 made a profit of 19.34pts.

Draw Systems

Given my comments above about the draw being a major pest so far this month, these results won’t be too surprising. A profit of 53.29pts from 181 bets. Only issue here is that I don’t have enough UK Draw systems to cover the losses on the outright betting systems!

These Draw systems started the season very slowly (as they did in their first season) but now they’ve got a decent sample of bets behind them, the results have again been decent.

I suspect if they can have another second half of the season like the first half, these systems will quickly propel themselves up the TFA pecking order in terms of results, especially since most other systems are on the slide!

Euro Systems

Annoyingly, the same trend as the UK systems with the AH returns being better. Overall though, a loss of 0.1pts from 272 bets.

Euro Draw Systems

Not going to moan too much as I covered it on a recent blog post but the results are dismal for these systems. The draw strike rate has picked up in some of the leagues but these systems are not hitting the winners and the strike rate is amazingly low.

I’ve never been a fan of laying bets but another second half of the season like this and we may have the best lay the draw systems I’ve ever seen! You couldn’t really aim to be hitting a 22% strike rate for draws if you tried in these Euro leagues and therefore, the results are abysmal.

A loss of 76.9pts from 291 bets. Rubbish.

Overall, a horrible update I’m afraid and the systems have dug themselves into yet another hole this season. I think they’ve been in 3 or 4 holes now but this is another one to clawback from.  A loss of 162.57pts from 1,453 bets.

It’s going to be a losing month (again!) unless the systems recover these losses over the rest of the month. Continues like it has been going recently and we’ll have a record losing month possibly.

Let’s see what happens…….

Euro Draws Update

I thought it was worth doing a quick post looking at the performance of the Euro Draws. In a way, I think one of the best things I did over the Summer wasn’t actually having a go at producing some Euro Draw systems (no, I think I can safely say that was a very bad idea!) but the fact I invested the time to look at the underlying results for the Euro leagues.

I’m not sure why but before I had looked at the Euro underlying results in depth, I had it in my head that Euro Draws was maybe an OK place to be. I’d seen a few services follow Cassini’s lead and start looking at Euro Draws and given the fact I really buy into the idea that few punters back draws and they are more interested in backing a team to win (same idea as why no one backs 0-0 when watching a game as they want to see goals!), I thought Euro Draws was going to be a profitable place to play generally.

You can re-read my post from the Summer here but I’m going to quote some comments I made as it was a little prophetic I think.

Considering I’m about to embark on new Euro Draw systems, let’s just say my confidence is a little lower having seen these underlying results!

The Draws have lost 6.4% over the last 4 seasons, last season lost 8.5% and the 2010/11 season lost 10.5%. Not exactly an easy place to make money!

12 winning months from 37 for Draw bets shows the difficulties playing in this space. Only 2 winning months in the last 12 shows how difficult it has been recently in these leagues if backing Draws.

In terms of the Euro Draw systems, I think the above has opened my eyes to how tough this place is to make money. Being honest, having seen Cassini’s results over the last two seasons, I realised it wasn’t exactly an easy place to make a profit but I’m not sure I’ve seen too many tougher groups of data to try to find a betting angle over the last few years.

Unless conditions get a bit easier for Draw backers (higher strike rate), I would struggle to believe that my ratings could make a profit next season. It’s not impossible (my UK Draw systems did it last season) but experience tells me that when the underlying results are tough, making a profit from a very high number of bets is just as tough. The odd system with lower turnover can do well but the higher turnover systems may struggle if the losses are as bad as 3 of the last 4 seasons.

I had a few emails from subscribers after I wrote this piece and the general consensus was that after reading my thoughts, they were going to give the Euro draws a miss this season. Of course, a few others decided that they would plough on anyway and given the fact they were playing lower stakes, surely these systems couldn’t do too much damage to their overall TFA P&L……

Well, I’ve had a few emails over the last few weeks saying how great a decision it was by some to miss these bets out from their portfolio after my post but I’ve also had two emails from subscribers in the past week who took the plunge with these systems at lower stakes and they are now licking their wounds a little.

I guess the first point I’d make is that although I judge TFA systems as an overall package and every bet carries 1pt in the proofed results, it’s fair to say that this isn’t really representative of the service as a whole. If anyone is placing 1pt on a TFA Euro Draw and 1pt on a UK Draw, they aren’t playing the game correctly I think. If you have zero live results and no evidence that a system or rating algorithm may be profitable, you shouldn’t really be placing too much emphasis on it. Therefore, although I feel bad for anyone following the Euro Draw systems this season at lower stakes, the reason they are following at lower stakes is due to the additional risk of these systems and therefore, even if they lose badly, the decision to follow the systems was down to them and them alone.

Anyway, caveats aside, my conscience is fairly clear given the comments I made before the season started and the fact the comments have been pretty accurate shows I did at least warn about what may happen.

So, after the weekend past (15^th December), here’s the results for all 11 systems so far this season:

In total, the 11 systems have lost 180pt from 651 bets. They have only found 137 winners, so a strike rate of 21%. The overall Draw strike rate for all Euro games I’ve rated this season after the weekend stands at 24.7%.

I guess the first point to make is that with a strike rate of 24.7% for the underlying results, I would expect my systems to be loss making. At average odds of 3.40, I need to be hitting 29.4% Draws to be break-even. Hence, at this sort of strike rate for the underlying results, I would expect to have lost c. 16% so far this season. This equates to 104pts! Therefore, my systems are clearly doing much worse than average and worse than expected, even with the underlying results.

I said before the season that if the season was as tough as 3 of the last 4, the higher turnover systems may struggle. The systems with the highest turnover have all lost over 30pts each and therefore, this assumption was correct. 

I guess the question that we all want answered is what happens next? Well, looking at the betting banks I suggested for each system (bear in mind I had no live results to know what the expected edge or lack of edge may be!), there is a very good chance that the first ever TFA system to lose a betting bank will occur. System DE1-DE6 has now lost 33pts of a 45pt bank (bank looks woefully inadequate based on the turnover) and therefore, by setting an inappropriate bank at the outset, I expect this system will effectively go broke.

There are a handful of other systems that may lose their suggested betting bank too and therefore, I think it’s odds on that one of the systems will go broke.

Having never been in this situation before, I’m not sure what it means for the Euro Draws. Clearly, if the Euro Draw strike rate is running at this sort of level, my systems are going to make a loss and personally, I’m not sure there is much I can do about it. You can’t have ratings that throw up Draws in 40%+ games and expect to make a profit if the Draw strike rate runs at the level it is running at now.

With hindsight, having seen what I saw with the Underlying results, having Euro Draw systems that bet in 40% of the games, knowing that it’s a very tough place to make a profit is probably not the most sensible thing in the world. However, the Euro Draw systems were built before I had looked at the Underlying results and therefore, I wouldn’t have had such high turnover systems if I had known how difficult it could be.  Then again, if my ratings had an edge in these leagues, the more the merrier when it comes to bet number and therefore, if I had gone down a very selective approach and made a small loss, I’d have been wondering what would happened if I had more bets…the truth is, a bigger loss. :(

I think if anyone is following the Euro Draws and have based their betting banks on the banks I suggested, I would suggest they reduce stakes if they feel the losses on the Euro Draws are impacting their overall portfolio too much. I personally follow the Euro Draw systems (E2-E6 and E2-E7) and I’m down 28pts at the moment. 1pt for me on Euro Draws is worth 3pts for UK Draws but even with this sort of staking plan, the losses on Euro Draws has wiped out my profits on the UK Draws and more unfortunately. With hindsight, I was too aggressive with my staking on the Euro Draws given the turnover on these systems and although I adjusted stakes based on the fact they had no results, I probably underestimated the sizable turnover the systems have. As always, I live and learn!

There is nothing I can do about the fact the systems are running so poorly at the moment. There is nothing fundamentally wrong with the bets thrown up. I’m pretty close to the Euro leagues this season due to the fact the Euro outright bets are doing great and so often, the Euro systems are on a big priced bet, the Euro Draws have the same game and then the big priced team wins! That weekend past, how PSG didn’t equalise or how Ath Madrid lost I’ve no idea but the outright ratings got the big priced winners as the Draw systems were left licking their wounds. The same could be said for the number of 1-0 games or the number of games with late goals which swing a Draw from a winner to a loser. However, this is gambling and ultimately, it happens to everyone!

If these systems do recover from these losses and reach break-even or a small loss (miles away from this at the moment!), then we could reassess the banks in the Summer and decide whether or not these systems should remain part of the service going forward. I have the option of doing what I did with the Euro systems and rebuilding them from scratch for next season or I could just take the decision that it’s too difficult a place to make money (sort of there now in my own head!) and why bother even trying to get something to work? At the moment, I’m definitely wondering why I’m even bothering continuing to back these bets given there are much easier ways to make money with other systems but I’ll continue until I feel the losses have reached a level that I feel like I’m not comfortable with and I’ll probably stop.

Interestingly, I stopped following the Euro systems myself in their first season just before an upturn after 3-4 months of poor results and it’s funny how things like this leave a psychological mark! I was playing small stakes on these systems too although the losses were nowhere near as bad as I’m suffering with these Draw systems. I’ll personally give it a few more weeks and then take stock of the losses and the impact it’s having on my P&L this season.

I expect those who took a chance on the Euro Draws this season are the same ones who took a chance on the UK Draws last season and coined it in! I bottled the UK draws last season and jumped on board very late and still managed to make a nice profit. If I had just showed the same little bit of patience and discipline again this season with the new Euro Draw systems…….

Season review do far

I don’t tend to write too many season review posts apart from season end as quite simply, I don’t think any time period shorter than a season is too meaningful. Yes, I do write monthly reviews and yes, I even go as far as detailing all results on this blog for every day my ratings and systems have bets but anyone with half a brain knows that what happens on a day to day basis when it comes to gambling is fairly random. If it wasn’t random and I knew when I was more likely to win or lose on any day, I’d build this into my models and my staking plan and increase my profitability. :)

I think any time I have done season review posts it’s always off the back of poor runs of results and most times, it’s to have a period of reflection for myself more than anyone else. Anyone who reads my blog posts will know this blog isn’t an advert for the service and is simply a record of all the system results over the season. I suspect some people only read the monthly reviews and if you only read these, I’m not sure you get the full flavour of what we are seeing in a season. I think this season maybe falls into this category and therefore, after 3 poor months, I think it’s better to stand back and take stock of the situation.

There’s not going to be a lot of depth in this post and it’s going to be a high level overview. I think I sometimes get too lost looking at details of how each rating algorithm and each system is doing but at an overall level, people are generally following the ratings or following a combination of systems or a mixture of the two. Therefore, I’ll try to look at the results in this way in this post.

Here’s the results so far this season for each algorithm,:

Coming into the season, algorithm 3 was the best algorithm, algorithm 4 was the worst algorithm and algorithm 2 just shaded algorithm 1. Therefore, I think these results aren’t too far out from what I would expect in terms of how the systems are doing relative to one another.

Algorithm 3 has made a 4.5% profit from 298 bets so far and although it’s not a vintage season, it’s hard to expect the algorithm to do that well when Aways have been performing so poorly. Algorithm 4 has made a loss of 7% from 252 bets and this is disappointing, even taking into account the difficulties this season. Algorithm 1 has a profit of 1.3% and algorithm 2 has a loss of 0.1%.

I think in a more normal and probably an ideal season, algorithm 3 would be sitting at c. 8%, algorithm 1 and 2 at 5% and algorithm 4 at 3%. Hence, all 4 algorithms are substantially down on where they should be I think based on historical experience.

I think this season, algorithm 3 is the most followed algorithm, followed by 2 and 1. Not too many will be following algorithm 4 but of course, quite a few are following unique bets and therefore, a unique bet on algorithm 4 may be pulling down the returns a little based on these results but I could be wrong.  I know Steve (Daily 25) is following algorithm 4 this season as I figured that it was a potential way to follow TFA bets with less odds movements but I didn’t expect the algorithm to do as badly as this! Even though it was the worst algorithm, it has been profitable up until now, so it’s disappointing to see it making a loss so far this season.

Overall, not the best results over the first 3 months for the algorithms but it’s not a disaster. All 4 algorithms favour Away bets heavily and therefore, given the carnage on Away bets, I don’t the results are too bad apart from algorithm 4.

This season, quite a number of people are using the value ratings to filter the bets to try to improve the profitability of the ratings and systems. I have always been wary of this myself but after seeing fairly conclusive results last season, I decided to base my staking plan in part of the value ratings so far this season. Unfortunately, it has been a disaster so far and the following tables will help me (and you!) understand why.

Rather than looking at the results by algorithm and value band, let’s look at the total results for all 4 algorithms together and by value band:

Straight away, we can see the issue the algorithms are having this season. Historically, the low value bets were marginally profitable and on some algorithms, the low value bets were loss making. So far this season, we are seeing the complete opposite picture. Bets with less than 5% value have created all the profits and those of you filtering these out or staking according to value are basically missing all the profits so far this season.

A profit of 34pts for all bets <5% value, a loss of 34.8pts on all bets >5%. As you would expect, the average odds increase as you go up the value bands and with the issues we are having on Aways this season, it makes sense that the highest value bets are struggling.

I think one part of the value ratings that I haven’t investigated in enough detail is the Home v Away bias when it comes to % value. Clearly, with the way value is defined within my ratings, Aways are always going to have more value on average since it is based on odds and Aways have a much higher average odds than Homes. This means that those of us filtering by value or staking by value ultimately end up with more riding on Away bets. Not really ideal and in a season like this, missing Home bets for being so called ‘low value’ is a killer for the P&L.

This is definitely something that needs more thought this Summer and rather than having a value % based on odds, I maybe need to relook at how I define value for Homes and Aways.

Here’s the same results split by algorithm:

Those following each of the algorithms and filtering by value can probably relate to the results shown here. Although algorithm 4 is the disappointing one this season, the carnage could have been avoided by applying a value filter as suggested during the Summer. Unfortunately, playing the same way on any of the other algorithms (which was also a suggestion!) has resulted in losses as the wrong bets have been winning.

What I would say though is that we are only 3 months into the seasons and there are a helluva lot more historical results that show that filtering by value isn’t the worst idea in the world. Given the results this season aren’t in line with the previous seasons, I’m not totally surprised the value ratings aren’t proving a good indicator but I’m hopeful this will change over the next few months and hopefully by season end, the season may look something like previous seasons!

As I outlined in the introduction, using the algorithms and/or value ratings are one way to play the bets I provide each week. The other way is to simply select a portfolio of systems to follow and follow these systems in a portfolio. It has been discussed to death on the blog before about the pros and cons of a portfolio approach but I feel that as long as you aren’t following correlated systems within a portfolio, the portfolio approach has its benefits. This season, I invested 75% of my betting bank in a portfolio approach and the other 25% in an approach using the algorithms and value ratings. So far, the portfolio approach has been much more successful but both approaches have been disappointing so far to varying degrees.

Going into this season, the record for profitable systems was:

2010/11 – 11 live systems, 11 profitable systems (100%)

2011/12 – 22 live systems, 21 profitable systems (95%)

2012/13 – 41 live systems, 33 profitable systems (80%)

2013/14 – 52 live systems, 35 profitable systems (67%)

I remember doing the work on this in the Summer and writing about it on the blog but if you followed a random selection of 4 systems each season in a portfolio, the chances of making a profit were over 90% in each season.

How does things look this season?

Here’s the results for all systems to the end of November:

There are 61 live systems this season. At the moment, only 22 of the systems are in profit which is only 36% of the systems. As you can see, compared to the previous seasons, this is a much lower % and shows the difficulties the systems are having this season.

Doing the same analysis I did in the Summer, what are the chances of making a profit if selecting 4 random systems in a portfolio? Here’s the same sort of table I showed in the Summer:

As you can see, if following 4 systems this season in a portfolio, the chances of being in profit at the moment are only 39%. Considering this number was 90%+ for the last 4 seasons, you can see how poor this season has been to date if using this portfolio method.

To finish this post off, I thought it was worth having a quick look at the 10 SBC portfolios I tracked last season and posted about during the Summer. Admittedly, some people may have used these portfolios and tweaked systems based on what I wrote in the review of these portfolios in the Summer but at the very least, this gives us an indication of how these systems are performing compared to last season. Here’s the results of the 10 portfolios for the season so far:

7 of the 10 portfolios are in a marginal profit situation and 3 of the 10 portfolios are in a marginal loss situation. Simply, break-even for the 10 portfolios isn’t too far away from the truth.  If anyone has added Euro Draws to their portfolio (I did!), then it may be slightly worse than break-even but not a disaster.

Again, similar to what I said above, it highlights the fact that it hasn’t been the easiest strategy this season but then again, it’s not been the worst strategy in the world.

Overall, I think this post provides a quick overview of a few strategies this season and how they are doing. I think break-even is a common theme that jumps out to me and if you are break-even this season, I think you are in line with where I expect. Anyone doing better than this is outperforming and anyone doing worse is under-performing. I’m sure there are outliers at both ends of the scale.

For results to improve, we need to see more Away winners in the UK, more Euro Draws than we are seeing and we need the higher value bets to start performing a bit better than so far this season. A combination of all 3 would turn this season around quickly but I suspect we’ll see some improvements in some cases and some deterioration in others!

Let’s see what the next 6 months bring……

November 2014 Monthly Review

Same story as last month and I’m going to try to keep this review a little shorter. I say shorter rather than short as I’ll no doubt still end up writing 5,000 words to summarise another tricky month for my ratings and systems. I will try to not write too much about the season to date as I plan on following this post with a post looking at the season to date for the systems.

We have seen by the Underlying results post that the UK underlying results were quite benign this month for the UK and therefore, I would have hoped that we would see most systems post a profit this month (they haven’t!). Underlying results at the level I’m looking at them every month only tell part of the story and as always, if I’m backing Homes when Aways have been winning, I’m never going to make a profit even though Aways may be profitable!

One thing I did notice this month from my own betting was a shocking performance from the high value bets generally. I stake according to value in one of my two portfolios of bets and it has been a disaster this month. Again, this probably indicates the wrong type of bets were winning and I’m sure we’ll see that in the results review below. Of course, it’s a short-term trend and historically, missing low value bets hasn’t been a bad idea but in a month where they have kept the results afloat, it hurts a little to see the low value bets do so well. 

3^rd disappointing month of the season and it’s been a tough season so far. Next post will look at the results this season to date.

Est Systems

Here’s the results of algorithm 1:

A loss of 1.7pts from 110 bets. An ROI of -1.6%.

A disappointing month given the underlying results and I would have hoped the algorithm could make a profit this month. The other issue is the results by value band and we can see that the low value bets made a profit of 9.4pts whereas the bets with value of 5%+ made a loss of 11.1pts. Not ideal for those of us using value in our staking plans or filtering the bets by value but as always, we can’t read too much into one month’s results.

Here’s the split by Home and Away:

Similar story to the previous months with Aways making a massive loss (10.4pts from 64 bets) and Homes making a profit (8.7pts from 46 bets).  Homes low value (<5%) bets is where all the profit is this month with a profit of 13pts from 26 bets.

Overall, a disappointing month overall for this algorithm with a small loss and being honest, anyone following this algorithm would have done worse if they used the value ratings as an additional filter.

Here’s the results of algorithm 2:

0.6pts profit from 103 bets. An ROI of 0.6%.

A disappointing month again for this algorithm and interestingly, the same issue applies with the value bands. All of the profit is in the lowest value band (12.8pts from 66 bets) which hurts those using the value bands I suspect.

Here’s the split by Home and Away:

Aways only lost 1pt and Homes only made 1.6pts. However, both showed the same trend with the low value bets doing best.

Overall, a poor performance from both these algorithms and given the bets that won were the wrong bets for the value bettors, I think I would expect the Est Systems to lose money this month. If the ratings aren’t profitable overall and the value filters aren’t working as well as they should, not sure the filtering of the ratings by systems is going to improve things too much.

Here’s the results of all the systems:

A loss of 22.8pts from 476 bets. An ROI of -4.8%.

It’s safe to say that the filtering is all over the place (again!). System 22 has had a nightmare and this has had a knock-on effect onto the higher combined systems. On the other hand, system 6-21 did quite well I think to turn a profit given the results on 6 and 21 but 6-22 has had a nightmare as all the system 22 bets were picked up by system 6 which means 6-22 had them all.

7-22 has had a poor month after a good month last month and overall, the 6 combined systems lost 10.3pts from 185 bets.

Not too surprised at the results of the systems this month given the results on the algorithms. It’s a poor month again for these systems and it’s worrying I think.

The Est systems have now been live for 39 months. The first 13 months created a profit of 409pts from 4,056 bets. An ROI of 10%,

The second 13 months created a profit of 382.9pts from 4,349 bets. An ROI of 8.8%.

The last 13 months have created a loss of 13.1pts from 3,372 bets. An ROI of -0.38%.

I guess if the systems didn’t have such a good track record over the first 2 periods, I’m not sure I’d have been as disappointed with them as I have been over the last 13 months of bets. I’m sure anyone following these systems is getting frustrated at the lack of progress over the last season and a bit but then again, the systems aren’t doing too much apart from treading water. I’ve said this before but I’m not against retiring systems if I feel like the edge has gone and these systems definitely fall into this category these days. I will of course give them to season end but if we don’t see an improvement, I expect systems 7 & 8 will be retired along with the corresponding combined systems 7-21 thru to 8-22.

New Systems

Here’s the results for algorithm 3:

A profit of 12.9pts from 118 bets. An ROI of 10.9%. At an overall level, a very good month for this algorithm and it kick starts the season as it has been like ploughing through treacle so far this season on this algorithm, with one step forward, one step back. Rightly or wrongly, I place a lot of emphasis on system 31 as I know it’s the most followed algorithm and therefore, if system 31 can do well, it papers over the cracks a little on the other algorithms.

Homes made the majority of the profits which is a common theme this season but I think it’s disappointing when you look at the split by value band. Similar to the first 2 algorithms, the profits have been made in the lowest value bands. 21.6pts profit from 55 bets for bets with less than 5% value.

To be fair to this algorithm, the lowest value bets have never been loss making and therefore, those who exclude bets with less than 5% value when they appear on this algorithm are taking a chance. However, the bets are not as profitable as the higher value bets and therefore, I can see why people maybe exclude the low value bets. For months like this though, it really hurts to see so much profit in the lowest band, knowing that some would filter these bets out.

Those who follow the value ratings will know that there isn’t much between a bet in the first two value bands. A bet with 4.99% value is in the low band, a bet with 5.01% is in the next band. Looking at the results, big losses are in the 5%-10% band. 11pts loss from 37 bets. Frustrating that more of the low value bets were not in this band.

Overall, it’s hard to be critical of an algorithm which makes 10% in a month although as always, the results haven’t fallen perfectly (the never will!).

Here’s the results for algorithm 4:

The blacksheep of the TFA family and it’s a 3^rd losing month in a row. A loss of 4.1pts from 94 bets. Wrote a little about this a recent blog post but this algorithm is probably on its last legs. I refreshed it in the Summer and hoped to improve it but the results just aren’t good enough. Not sure I have the appetite to start again with proofing a new 4^th algorithm and I suspect I may retire the 4^th algorithm at season end.

Looking at the results, the profits were in the lowest band and that means over a month, all 4 algorithms have achieved profits for bets with less than 5% value and bets over 5% value were badly loss making. Another record I think as I can’t recall this happening on every algorithm in the same month before.

With the results on the algorithms, it’s difficult to know how the systems would do. System 31 provides a great platform but system 41 will reduce the profits and then looking at the fact the profits are all on low value bets, I would expect the filtering didn’t work great this month since the teams I wanted to win didn’t win!

Here’s the results of the New Systems:

A loss of 16.9pts from 505 bets. An ROI of -3.3%. The filtering on systems 32 and 33 was rubbish and therefore, the only combined systems to make a profit was system 31-41 and 31-42. 31-42 had a nightmare season last season after a great first season and as we’ll see in the next blog post, the system has really bounced back so far this season.

Overall, a poor month but given the way the results fell this month, not too surprised.

Misc Systems

Here’s the results of the Misc Systems this month:

A loss of 12.4pts from 331 bets. An ROI of -3.7%. Nice profits on 6-21-31 and 21-31, offset by losses on the other 4 systems. It’s a weird set of results considering most of the same bets appear on 21-31 as TOX, STOY or STOZ! For example, STOZ had all of the bets that appeared on 6-21-31. Unfortunately, it also had an additional 11 bets and didn’t hit any winners! Easier said than done to achieve that particular feat.

Here’s the split by Home/Away for these systems:

Another massive loss on Aways with a loss of 28.5pts from 232 bets. Homes did better as usual with a profit of 16.1pts from 99 bets.

It will be interesting to see the results for the season split Home and Aways on the systems as Aways must be in about as big a hole as I’ve ever seen in a season! If I hadn’t refreshed the ratings in the Summer and incorporated more Home bets, I dread to think what the loss would be this season on all systems!

Anyway, another losing month for these systems although 6-21-31 and 21-31 are doing better than the base ratings this season so far. Hopefully won’t end this way!

Draw Systems

Here’s the results of the Draw Systems this month:

A profit of 25.9pts from 278 bets. Wow, a profit. Last month was a profit of 25.7pts from 263 bets. That’s about as consistent as these profits have ever been!

I had my doubts about these systems after the start to the season in September and the massive loss but they’ve bounced back well. Still a long way to go to reach the heights of the previous season but at least they have clawed back the losses now after two decent months. Hoping to see these systems push on now and hopefully start to create some sort of meaningful profit this season.

Euro Systems

Here’s the results:

A loss of 36.9pts from 321 bets. Scratching my head if I’m honest about why these systems are posting a loss when the underlying results have been so favourable this month. The ratings haven’t done too badly (still underperformed though) but the filtering has been a disaster on systems E2 and E3.

I’m finding it very hard to understand the European results this season and I’m not sure my ratings are finding it easy either. The results look fairly random and although the underlying results point to it being quite easy, I’m not sure it is. My ratings don’t seem to picking up Dortmund to lose often enough (I keep having them drawing!) and things like this are throwing up massive profits for the underlying results but it’s not as easy as it appears to be backing winners at big odds all the time!

Euro Draw Systems

Here’s the results:

A loss of 30.1pts from 309 bets. No need to scratch my head here as I understand these results and I guess my only comment is that based on the underlying results, I’m surprised the loss is not greater this month!

A flat 14% loss if backing all Euro Draws in my rated games this season and it has been impossible. Before the season started, I said it was a tough place to make money based on the work I did in the Summer looking at the Underlying results and the results so far have backed this up. I do feel like a correction is due and if some sort of correction does come, I would hope the Euro Draw systems do bounce back but it’s a long way back to break-even.

Overall, a loss of 93.2pts from 2,220 bets. An ROI of -4.2%.

A poor month again I think and similar to what I said at the end of the previous two months, it could probably have been worse. It’s been a tough 3 months and trying to not lose too badly has been the name of the game. It won’t always be like this (I have to believe this, otherwise, I’d stop betting on footie now!) and I’m hopeful we can get back to some sort of consistent profits like the previous 4 seasons sooner rather than later.

December is a key month (I said this about November!) and this is traditionally the time of the year when the ratings do well. Games come thick and fast over the next 6 weeks or so and if I’m still struggling at the end of January, I expect it’s going to be a really tough season for my systems to make any headway at all.

Next post will look at the season to date. :(