Statistics don't lie!

I was planning on writing my monthly review after updating my weekend results in a post but I think that would be doing the systems a disservice this month after what happened at the weekend. Therefore, I'll cover both off in the same post as the weekend results are part of the monthly results! In addition, if I look at things over a calendar month instead of just concentrating on the weekend, it will help focus my mind!

The Weekend

A loss of 11.1pts on the weekend. Another disaster really with a shocking performance from all the systems. Unfortunately, the biggest losses were on systems 7 and 8 which is where my staking is biased towards, so it wasn't a good weekend at all.

Sunderland was a massive game on Sunday as if they had lost, the systems would have lost over 20pts on the which would have been a much bigger disaster!

The games and the results are included in the monthly report below which shows all the bets in the month, so I won't post them twice.

October Review

Firstly, the positives. A profit of 18.6pts from 163 games in total. Another great performance this month from the systems although the rollercoaster has been unreal. The month started well with the best day the systems have ever had I think and then it has been all downhill from there. Even so, standing back and looking at it now, a good profit has been made and therefore, I can't be too disappointed.

System 6 has made a profit of 5.8pts from 92 games. Again, not a great ROI but then again, it isn't really a system that is meant to produce a high ROI as it is a high turnover, low ROI system.

System 7 has made a profit of 8.17pts from 46 games. A really decent ROI for any footie system I think and a great month for this system.

System 8 has made a profit of 2.44pts from only 23 games. Slightly disapointing returns from this system this month but then again, it's another good profit in the bank and it beats losing!

System 9 only had 2 bets in the month and made a profit of 2.2pts as both bets won. This system hasn't really had too many bets yet this season but it is doing enough to wash it's own face I think!

Overall then, 2 months into the season and a profit of 24,6pts from 285 games. Not as good as I hoped at this point in the season but when you look at it by system, there is a lot of hope for the future. Systems 7 and 8 in particular are doing very well and the ROI is simply being dragged down overall by the low ROI of system 6 which isn't too surprising based on historical results.

I think it is a promising start and gives us really good building blocks for the future.

I'm getting very close to being able to launch the next set of TFA systems into the live world. They have been doing OK this season so far in the background and will soon make their way out here to be proofed. All my system results are being proofed by the SBC this season and that includes some other systems that aren't being trialled on here. None have done well that well though (tiny profit overall) and are all being dropped so I can concentrate on these systems on here!

Systems 21-23 will be with you soon.

This week's bets

Below are the bets for this weekend. Definitely helps having a couple of Premiership bets in there for decent stakes in terms of placing the bets. The bookies seem to take these bets easily in one lump sum which saves me some time.

Was OK with getting on again this week in the main. Had to split Hayes and a couple of others but in the main, the bookies still appear to be taking all the bets I want which is good news.

I've been pleasantry surprised about how easy it has been to get the bets on each week for the stakes I'm using but I know it can change very quickly possibly. I think spreading the bets around so much definitely helps and not following any tipsters or using my accounts for horse-racing also helps. I suspect I just look like an average punter playing on the footie each week for a few bets at decent stakes.

This is actually the least I've laid out for a few weeks which is good as I feel fairly comfortable laying this amount out nowadays. Didn't think I'd be saying that at the start of the season but it's amazing how playing with winnings can change your mentality so much.

Good luck.

The Football Analyst Bets for weekend 29th/30th/31st October

System 6
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookies
30/10/2010 15:00 Premiership Fulham v Wigan Wigan 4.50 B365
31/10/2010 12:00 Premiership Aston Villa v Birmingham Aston Villa 1.93 Pinnacle
31/10/2010 13:30 Premiership Newcastle v Sunderland Newcastle 2.20 VC
30/10/2010 17:20 Championship Barnsely v Hull Hull 3.25 Ladbrokes
30/10/2010 15:00 Championship Leicester v Preston Leicester 1.80 Skybet
30/10/2010 15:00 Championship Middlesbrough v Bristol City Middlesbrough 1.95 WH
30/10/2010 15:00 Championship QPR v Burnley QPR 1.91 WH
30/10/2010 15:00 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Carlisle Carlisle 2.88 Ladbrokes
30/10/2010 15:00 League 1 Exeter v Brentford Brentford 3.20 Betfred
30/10/2010 15:00 League 1 Leyton Orient v Rochdale Leyton Orient 2.50 VC
30/10/2010 15:00 League 1 Peterbrough v Brighton Brighton 3.10 B365
30/10/2010 15:00 League 2 Accrington v Cheltenham Accrington 2.00 VC
30/10/2010 15:00 League 2 Bradford v Oxford Oxford 2.63 Ladbrokes
30/10/2010 15:00 League 2 Northampton v Gillingham Gillingham 2.90 Skybet
29/10/2010 19:45 Bsq Prem Southport v Kidderminster Kidderminster 2.63 SJ
30/10/2010 15:00 Bsq Prem Hayes v Altrincham Hayes 1.91 Corals
30/10/2010 15:00 Bsq Prem Newport v Kettering Newport 1.75 VC
30/10/2010 15:00 Bsq Prem Rushden v Barrow Rushden 1.50 WH
30/10/2010 15:00 SPL Dundee Utd v Hibernian Hibernian 3.75 Corals

System 7
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookies
30/10/2010 15:00 Premiership Fulham v Wigan Wigan 4.50 B365
31/10/2010 13:30 Premiership Newcastle v Sunderland Newcastle 2.20 VC
30/10/2010 15:00 Championship Leicester v Preston Leicester 1.80 Skybet
30/10/2010 15:00 Championship Middlesbrough v Bristol City Middlesbrough 1.95 WH
30/10/2010 15:00 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Carlisle Carlisle 2.88 Ladbrokes
30/10/2010 15:00 League 2 Accrington v Cheltenham Accrington 2.00 VC
30/10/2010 15:00 Bsq Prem Hayes v Altrincham Hayes 1.91 Corals

System 8
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookies
31/10/2010 13:30 Premiership Newcastle v Sunderland Newcastle 2.20 VC
30/10/2010 15:00 Championship Middlesbrough v Bristol City Middlesbrough 1.95 WH
30/10/2010 15:00 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Carlisle Carlisle 2.88 Ladbrokes
30/10/2010 15:00 League 2 Accrington v Cheltenham Accrington 2.00 VC
30/10/2010 15:00 Bsq Prem Hayes v Altrincham Hayes 1.91 Corals

System 9
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookies
31/10/2010 13:30 Premiership Newcastle v Sunderland Newcastle 2.20 VC

System 10
None

Weekend Update

A good day yesterday got me back on track and overall, it was pretty close to being a break-even weekend for me. The systems made a profit of 0.13pts which after Saturday's performance, is quite good!

The big game for me yesterday was Arsenal on a couple of systems, so it was nice to see Man City reduced to 10 men so early on!

Overall, an OK weekend and it stops a poor run of form for the systems. I think that’s the way the football betting tends to go whereby you make nothing most weeks and then a good weekend will come when I make a good profit but a bad weekend is as likely to come along and wipe out some profits also. Hence, when you make a little on a weekend or break-even, I can’t knock it.

Saturday Loss

Not fully up to date with my results and I won't have time until Monday now to post anything up.

However, today was a really bad again again and the systems are going through a sticky spell. Nothing is out of the ordinary though when compared to the past, so it's important that we all stick with the plan!

Still got a few decent looking bets tomorrow I think, so plenty of opportunity to get out break-even I think this weekend.

I'll post up how tomorrow goes when I get time.

Fingers crossed for a good weekend!

Below are my bets for the weekend. Another very busy weekend this weekend.

Had next to no trouble placing my bets last night (must be after last week's disaster!) but I'm trying to utilise my accounts just a tiny bit more now, so you'll see I placed some with Betfred, Boyles etc. as I try to make use of the fact I have 16 unrestricted accounts at the moment. Obviously, it won't take long for these guys to close me down if I win I suspect but we'll see what happens.

Fingers crossed for a good weekend as I can do with one after last weekend!

The Football Analyst Bets for weekend 23rd/24th October

System 6
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookies
23/10/2010 15:00 Premiership Birmingham v Blackpool Birmingham 1.95 Tote
23/10/2010 15:00 Premiership West Brom v Fulham Fulham 3.75 Betfred
23/10/2010 15:00 Premiership Wigan v Bolton Wigan 2.50 Betfred
24/10/2010 15:00 Premiership Liverpool v Blackburn Liverpool 1.73 Boyles
24/10/2010 16:00 Premiership Man City v Arsenal Arsenal 3.03 Pinnacle
23/10/2010 15:00 Championship Hull v Portsmouth Portsmouth 3.00 Ladbrokes
23/10/2010 15:00 Championship Swansea v Leicester Leicester 3.75 WH
23/10/2010 15:00 League 1 Colchester v Notts County Notts County 3.40 Ladbrokes
23/10/2010 15:00 League 1 MK Dons v Exeter MK Dons 2.00 SJ
23/10/2010 15:00 League 1 Plymouth v Huddersfield Huddersfield 2.40 Ladbrokes
23/10/2010 15:00 League 1 Rochdale v Dagenham Dagenham 3.80 B365
23/10/2010 15:00 League 1 Walsall v Tranmere Walsall 2.10 Corals
23/10/2010 15:00 League 2 Cheltenham v Port Vale Port Vale 2.40 Ladbrokes
23/10/2010 15:00 League 2 Hereford v Accrington Accrington 2.63 SJ
23/10/2010 15:00 League 2 Morecambe v Stevanage Stevanage 2.63 Ladbrokes
23/10/2010 15:00 League 2 Oxford v Northampton Oxford 1.83 Ladbrokes

System 7
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookies
23/10/2010 15:00 Premiership Wigan v Bolton Wigan 2.50 Betfred
24/10/2010 15:00 Premiership Liverpool v Blackburn Liverpool 1.73 Boyles
24/10/2010 16:00 Premiership Man City v Arsenal Arsenal 3.03 Pinnacle
23/10/2010 15:00 Championship Hull v Portsmouth Portsmouth 3.00 Ladbrokes
23/10/2010 15:00 Championship Swansea v Leicester Leicester 3.75 WH
23/10/2010 15:00 League 1 Rochdale v Dagenham Dagenham 3.80 B365
23/10/2010 15:00 League 2 Cheltenham v Port Vale Port Vale 2.40 Ladbrokes
23/10/2010 15:00 League 2 Oxford v Northampton Oxford 1.83 Ladbrokes

System 8
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookies
23/10/2010 15:00 Premiership Wigan v Bolton Wigan 2.50 Betfred
23/10/2010 15:00 Championship Hull v Portsmouth Portsmouth 3.00 Ladbrokes

System 9
None

Midweek Results

Not much happening in midweek I'm afraid. A small loss overall due to Sunderland losing mainly.

Taking a break just now from placing my bets for the weekend tonight, so I'll get back to that and I'll post them up here when I'm done.

Midweek Bets

Apologies for not posting these earlier, just had no time today at all today.

Good luck if you are following.

The Football Analyst Bets for 19th October

System 6
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Boomaker
19-Oct-10 19:45 Championship Norwich v C Palace Norwich 1.66 Tote
19-Oct-10 19:45 Championship Burnley v Barnsley Burnley 1.70 Tote
19-Oct-10 19:45 Championship Notts Forest v Middlesborough Notts Forest 1.90 VC

System 7
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Boomaker
19-Oct-10 19:45 Championship Norwich v C Palace Norwich 1.66 Tote
19-Oct-10 19:45 Championship Burnley v Barnsley Burnley 1.70 Tote

System 8
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Boomaker
19-Oct-10 19:45 Championship Norwich v C Palace Norwich 1.66 Tote

Terrible Weekend

Struggled to get time to update my results this weekend as I was feeling terrible yesterday as a result of a very bad hangover. I wasn't sure I was going to go out on Saturday night but after hearing how bad my football bets did from a mate via a text, it was an easy decision to go out and get trashed!

A shocking day on Saturday and undoes a bit of the good work done by the systems earlier this month. I seemed to pick so many teams that were winning at half-time but they threw the game away in the second half. I can pick out Northampton (3-0 up at half-time and lost 4-3) and Hamilton (2-0 and drew 2-2) as obvious cases but there were many others who were 1-0 up at half-time and they either lost or drew the game.

Not much I can do about it though and hopefully Saturday was a blip rather than a trend.

School Boy Error!

Well, after my school boy error last week, I did the same again this week and lumped on the wrong team in one of the games. The only difference is I spotted it this time!

Below are the bets for the weekend. A whole host of games again which means it is likely to be a big swing either up or down but we'll see what happens. I feel a small correction may be due as the systems are outperforming the past but we'll see what happens.

The Football Analyst bets for 16th/17th October

System 6
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Bookmaker
17-Oct-10 15:00 Premiership Everton v Liverpool Everton 2.50 SJ
17-Oct-10 19:45 Premiership Blackburn v Sunderland Sunderland 3.98 Pinnacle
16-Oct-10 15:00 Championship Cardiff v Bristol City Cardiff 1.53 Ladbrokes
16-Oct-10 15:00 Championship Derby v Preston Derby 2.06 Pinnacle
16-Oct-10 15:00 Championship Leicester v Hull Leicester 1.91 Ladbrokes
16-Oct-10 15:00 League 1 Dagenham v Walsall Dagenham 2.10 PP
16-Oct-10 15:00 League 1 Exeter v Carlisle Carlisle 2.90 Pinnacle
16-Oct-10 15:00 League 1 Tranmere v Brentford Brentford 2.90 WH
16-Oct-10 15:00 League 1 Yeovil v Sheff Wed Yeovil 3.00 PP
16-Oct-10 15:00 League 2 Aldershot v Morecambe Aldershot 2.00 Betfred
16-Oct-10 15:00 League 2 Northampton v Hereford Northampton 1.83 Ladbrokes
16-Oct-10 15:00 League 2 Shrewsbury v Lincoln Lincoln 5.00 Ladbrokes
16-Oct-10 15:00 League 2 Stevanage v Burton Burton 4.00 B365
16-Oct-10 15:00 League 2 Stockport v Barnet Barnet 3.40 Tote
16-Oct-10 15:00 SPL Aberdeen v Hearts Hearts 3.00 Corals
16-Oct-10 15:00 SPL St Mirren v Hamilton Hamilton 3.00 Ladbrokes
16-Oct-10 15:00 BSP Forest Green v Histon Forest Green 2.20 Corals
16-Oct-10 15:00 BSP Grimsby v Southport Grimsby 1.67 Ladbrokes
16-Oct-10 15:00 BSP Kettering v Kidderminster Kidderminster 3.23 Pinnacle
16-Oct-10 15:00 BSP Tamworth v Rushden Rushden 2.38 Ladbrokes

System 7
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Stake Bookmaker
17-Oct-10 19:45 Premiership Blackburn v Sunderland Sunderland 3.98 Pinnacle
16-Oct-10 15:00 Championship Leicester v Hull Leicester 1.91 Ladbrokes
16-Oct-10 15:00 League 1 Dagenham v Walsall Dagenham 2.10 PP
16-Oct-10 15:00 League 1 Exeter v Carlisle Carlisle 2.90 Pinnacle
16-Oct-10 15:00 League 1 Tranmere v Brentford Brentford 2.90 PP
16-Oct-10 15:00 League 2 Aldershot v Morecambe Aldershot 2.00 Betfred
16-Oct-10 15:00 League 2 Stockport v Barnet Barnet 3.40 Tote
16-Oct-10 15:00 SPL St Mirren v Hamilton Hamilton 3.00 Ladbrokes
16-Oct-10 15:00 BSP Grimsby v Southport Grimsby 1.67 Ladbrokes

System 8
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Stake Bookmaker
16-Oct-10 15:00 Championship Leicester v Hull Leicester 1.91 B365
16-Oct-10 15:00 League 1 Dagenham v Walsall Dagenham 2.10 SJ
16-Oct-10 15:00 League 1 Exeter v Carlisle Carlisle 2.90 Pinnacle
16-Oct-10 15:00 League 1 Tranmere v Brentford Brentford 2.90 PP
16-Oct-10 15:00 League 2 Aldershot v Morecambe Aldershot 1.91 WH
16-Oct-10 15:00 SPL St Mirren v Hamilton Hamilton 3.00 Ladbrokes

System 9
None

10% return on the weekend

A really strange day today where I made a few errors with my own bets I placed and only ended up with a 10% return on the weekend. I say that slightly tongue in cheek as I'd take that every weekend!

The systems had another remarkable day and a profit of 9.22pts was achieved from staking only 21 points.

Slightly annoyed that I didn't capitalise on it myself as much as I should have done but not too concerned!

Quiet Weekend.....(or is it?)

Apologies for the lack of posts on the blog again. Work has been in the way again this week and it's hard to see when that may reduce in the near future, so this place will suffer a little until things get back to normal at work.

I wasn't expecting a busy weekend this weekend but there is enough to keep me interested I think.

It's funny how winning can change your mentality with gambling. When I was placing these last night (a few more restrictions than before but I got on easy enough as any that had restrictions, I was able to get the same price elsewhere), I wasn't worried about the amount I was staking.

Although I probably laughed it off on here last week, I was worried about the fact I was staking so much in one weekend. Clearly, betting banks are there for a reason and they should be used but staking 60%+ of your bank on the line in one weekend is a lot!

Last night, once I'd finished up and counted how much I had staked, it didn't feel like much at all. It's amazing how playing with winnings can change your mentality.

Good luck.

The Football Analyst Bets for weekend 9th October

System 6
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Stake Bookies
09-Oct-10 15:00 League 1 Brighton v Bournemouth Brighton 1.87 £40.00 Tote
09-Oct-10 15:00 League 1 MK Dons v Dagenham Dagenham 4.50 £40.00 Ladbrokes
09-Oct-10 15:00 League 1 Rochdale v Yeovil Yeovil 4.00 £40.00 Ladbrokes
09-Oct-10 15:00 League 2 Barnet v Bradford Barnet 2.50 £40.00 WH
09-Oct-10 15:00 League 2 Burton v Wycombe Burton 2.50 £40.00 B365
09-Oct-10 15:00 League 2 Bury v Accrington Accrington 4.00 £40.00 Ladbrokes
09-Oct-10 15:00 League 2 Gillingham v Stockport Gillingham 1.83 £40.00 Corals
09-Oct-10 15:00 League 2 Morecambe v Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 2.62 £40.00 WH
09-Oct-10 15:00 Bsq Prem Bath v Eastbourne Eastbourne 2.89 £40.00 Pinnacle
09-Oct-10 15:00 Bsq Prem Darlington v Hayes Hayes 5.50 £40.00 Betfred
09-Oct-10 15:00 Bsq Prem Newport v York Newport 1.85 £40.00 Pinnacle
09-Oct-10 17:15 Bsq Prem Rushden v Mansfield Rushden 2.20 £40.00 SJ
09-Oct-10 15:00 Bsq Prem Southport v Kettering Kettering 3.11 £40.00 Pinnacle

System 7
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Stake Bookies
09-Oct-10 15:00 League 1 Brighton v Bournemouth Brighton 1.87 £40.00 Tote
09-Oct-10 15:00 League 1 Rochdale v Yeovil Yeovil 4.00 £40.00 WH
09-Oct-10 15:00 League 2 Gillingham v Stockport Gillingham 1.83 £40.00 Corals
09-Oct-10 15:00 Bsq Prem Bath v Eastbourne Eastbourne 2.89 £40.00 Pinnacle
09-Oct-10 15:00 Bsq Prem Newport v York Newport 1.85 £40.00 Pinnacle
09-Oct-10 17:15 Bsq Prem Rushden v Mansfield Rushden 2.20 £40.00 SJ

System 8
Date Time League Game Selection Odds Stake Bookies
09-Oct-10 15:00 League 2 Gillingham v Stockport Gillingham 1.85 £40.00 Betfred
09-Oct-10 15:00 Bsq Prem Bath v Eastbourne Eastbourne 2.89 £40.00 Pinnacle

System 9
None

Nice Graph.......

There are no midweek bets this week.

I’m really pleased to have a quiet midweek as I’m away to Ireland tomorrow for work. Have to go and visit a partner across there tomorrow. It’s my first visit to Ireland, so looking forward to it although it will be a long day!

When things settle down at work, I’ll be looking to post some analysis up of the season thus far. I’ll be interested to see my P&L by league as well as seeing how each of the individual systems are doing this season compared to previous seasons

In the meantime, I thought I’d share this graph with you. The more and more I think of Saturday, the more I think that I won’t be able to beat that day but we’ll see what happens.

Won't forget this day for a while......

I think for the first time since I’ve had the blog, I can just post up the picture of how the day went and I don’t need to say much more!

A totally unbelievable day where the rating systems did remarkably well and every system produced a great profit to some degree.

This really is the stuff dreams are made of I think and this has made all my hard work during the summer worth it.

I also need to say that it gives me great satisfaction to know that some others are following my selections also on the TFA forum and there are a few stories on there of people having the best football betting day they’ve had for a long time, so I’ll sleep well tonight I think.

I feel like today is a massive release of pressure for me and I’m not sure I’ll get this feeling too often while betting on football as the returns don’t tend to be too much in any one day. I’ll never forget this day for a long-time though!

What implications this has on my future betting accounts I'm not sure as a few bookies have been hit badly today for decent losses, so I'll need to see how they react. Hopefully they'll think it was a fluke. Maybe it was? We'll find out in future.

I had 4 bets with Corals today and all 4 won for a profit of £775. They are the only bookie to restrict me thus far (twice now) and after today, I'm not sure what will happen going forward.

Let's hope things can continue like this for the remainder of the season!

For the record, system 6 made a profit of 10.5pts from 21 games. System 7 made a profit of 11.9pts from 14 games. System 8 was the star again with a profit of 6.49pts from 7 games and system 8 had 1 from 1 correct for a profit of 1pt.

Doesn't get much better than this I think.....