Apologies to my Greek readers if the title of the post doesn’t make sense!
I received a comment a few posts back from a reader called Tasos saying ‘We love you’. I clicked on his name (as you would do when someone declares love for you!) and it took me to a betting site but unfortunately, it was written in Greek! I could see that something had been posted regarding my blog as it had a link to it but even with Google translation, I couldn’t understand what the post was saying.
I figured it had said something good as the blog has received an unbelievable amount of hits from Greece in the last couple of days.
I’ve since received a comment this morning from Markos who kindly informed me that the link was on a Greek betting site and it said that my blog was one of the best betting blogs. Wouldn’t like to argue with that comment although it’s probably the best source of free football selections on the net, not necessarily the best blog. My blogs linked to better blogs than this but my blog’s not really a blog!
Anyway, it’s always nice to get some new readers and if any of you have any questions, please leave me a comment and I’ll get back to you.
Καλή τύχη
Hi Graeme
ReplyDeleteSaddo that I am, every now and then I look at the various analyses that you do on your results. I bookmarked the one that you posted on 16th December headed One For The Future which shows 5619 bets, a profit of 798.2 and an roi of 14.2%. Your 14th February post giving a link to the latest results shows 220 more bets in the intervening period which is fine, but the profit has gone down to 550.6 and consequently the roi to 9.4%.
December and January weren't losing months so presumably I'm missing something obvious here, but to save me struggling can you tell me what it is?
I post so many analyses of results on here at various points mate, I can never guarantee that I’m showing the same analysis twice. I can guarantee it all comes from the same database of results though!
ReplyDeleteHaving read back to the post you mention mate, I’m not sure I trust that blog post 100% as it was for future analysis as I know it was rushed but I’ll check it out. That particular blog post was a one-off looking at something that’s not exactly sitting in my database of results if you know what I mean. Took a lot of manipulation (few hours!) as I said in the blog post to try to get these results as I don’t have the results to hand. It was done using a pivot though, so I just need to find the output table, paste in the data from now and check what it throws up.
Leave it with me. I’ll go and check it out.
The ‘official results’ of the systems are correct as this is what everyone tracks. Me playing about with data to generate other sets of results always has the potential to throw up something odd if I do it wrongly!
Graeme
That was easy!
ReplyDeleteWe’re comparing Apples and Pears mate. I should have noticed it when I looked at the post.
There were 25,281 games used in that analysis. It is remarkable how similar the number of bets in that analysis is to the number of proofed bets but they are completely different.
In that old post, it is saying that there were 68 bets that appeared on 20 systems. Likewise, 34 bets on 19 systems. And so on. If you do cross multiplication of 20 * 68, that tells you the number of bets that would have been on the systems plus 34 *19 and so on. You end up with a number of 25,281. That figure is all the backtested results and proofed results on all systems to 2006/7 season as at that point in time.
Hopefully that makes sense? If not, let me know.
So, for the teams appearing on 20 systems, I would have actually staked 20pts on each of these teams in reality. 1pt for every time they appear on a system. In that analysis you’ve bookmarked, it shows the return of staking 1pt on a team that appears 20 times. Not the same thing at all!
That last bit makes it easier to understand I think. :)
If not, just shout and I’ll expand on it further.
Graeme
No that's fine, Graeme. Just couldn't get my head round it before but see exactly what you mean now. Thanks for the quick reply.
ReplyDeleteHey :) Making your day by posting about you @antiopap.com was the least we could do to give you a mental boost to continue your great work
ReplyDeleteHopefully following your tips will boost the Greek economy.... people bet, the tips win and they go spend their money on goods and service... the economy is rolling again!
ReplyDeleteThanks Tasos. It has made my day. Always great to get new readers and to know my work and effort is appreciated by so many.
ReplyDeleteNot sure I needed a mental boost considering I’ve just had two weeks holiday in Mexico but always nice to get any sort of appreciation. I hope and I don’t let you and your readers down. :)
Graeme
That's what you call pressure Malcolm......
ReplyDeleteThe fate of the Greek economy in the hands of my systems. Gulp!
Hopefully they've not missed the best part of the season but a couple of my subscribers have already stopped following this season as I said a few posts back and can't wait for next season to start in September! Not quite giving up myself yet for the season but hopefully things get back on track.
Graeme
:))))))
ReplyDeleteGreetings Graeme.
ReplyDeleteAre you still proofing your Under 2.5 goals and Over 2.5 goals systems in the SBC forum.My subscription there expired not long after you started posting this season but I’d be interested to see hear how they are doing.Following your systems off the blog and doing well this season although the odds achieved are lower by the time I place the bets from the blog.
Tas
Hi Tas.
ReplyDeleteYeah mate, I’m still proofing these bets in the SBC forum. I’ve never mentioned them on the blog and don’t intend to at the moment as it was really a private trial to get a history of proofed bets without having the pressure of knowing plenty of people would be following.
At the moment, the Under algorithm (just the basic Under value bets) have an ROI of 1.3% across 208 bets and the Over algorithm (just the basic Over value bets) has an ROI of 9.7% from 192 bets. Still very early days for these bets but I reckon that if I do more work on the algorithms in the summer, I can improve them a little to make them worthwhile following.
The results when trying to narrow down the higher value bets haven’t been anywhere near as good. Under 2 and Under 3 systems have lost 1pt each from 81 and 27 games respectively. Over 2 has made 4pts from 50 games and Over 3 is -5pts from 15 games. I’ve already mentioned in the SBC forum that going forward, you can’t really have systems with less than 40 bets a season as there are not enough bets to show an edge and variance is too big an issue. Hence, I suspect that I’ll probably just have an Under system and an Over system where every value bet appears. Takes it away from the TFA way of building systems and narrowing down bets but when you start with a sample of 300 bets a season, it’s hard to narrow them down even further I’ve found.
Hope this makes sense. These will be added to the system portfolio next season I suspect if continue to make profits this season.
Cheers,
Graeme
Sorry, forgot to address your other point re. the odds Tas.
ReplyDeleteThe bets are appearing on the blog 24 hours after they’ve been sent to my email distribution group and after the new system bets have been posted in the SBC forum most weekends, so I’d expect a fair bit of odds movement tbh on some games. However, if you analyse the results of the systems, there is still a fairly big edge at backing the teams at kick-off prices as I do regular checks. I wouldn’t post the bets on the blog for people to lose money following when others are winning. ;)
Cheers,
Graeme