DNB Ratings Update

A quick update on where I'm at with the new ratings.

I've stumbled across a bit of an issue with the DNB ratings in the sense I can't seem to get something that fits the data from 2002 to 2007 and then fits the last few seasons. Part of it is due to the results in 06/07 and 07/08 as these results seemed to throw up the best results for traditional H/A betting but it isn't working when I'm trying to test these seasons with DNB.

I've looked at the results and one way around it is to exclude a few seasons from my backfitting completely and just have less backfitted results to work from. This keeps things from getting too narrowed and too backfitted in places and should help the results in more recent years make more sense.

I'm going to start again and backfit the early data again for DNB and exclude seasons 06/07 and 07/08 from my backfitting completely. However, I'll bring in season 09/10 into my backfitting by sampling 50% of the games in this season.

What should happen is that I'll end up with 4 seasons of backtested results now (instead of the 3 seasons I have with my current systems) and of course, I'll need to be careful when I interpret season 09/10 as it won't be a realistic return compared to the other seasons.

The other interesting observation I'm finding is that although I'm trying to maximise DNB returns, I still can't get anywhere near beating the traditional H/A returns. Simply, no matter what way I look at the data, backing the draw is loss making using my ratings. Again though, the purpose of DNB systems isn't to provide a better return, it's simply to try to smooth the journey hopefully.

Anyway, that's a very quick update of my last couple of days or so.

I should be in a position to have the first cut of ratings later this week and I'll share the results on here when this is done.

The blog is going to be a bit boring for the next wee while as it is basically me working away in the background doing the donkey work for next season! I'll try to provide updates of how my work is going though to keep this place ticking over.

Phew......

After a lot of work over the past 48 hours, I've finally finished the season reviews for all the systems. You can read the summaries here.... http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/p/system-reviews-201011.html

The two things that stand out this season is the performance of lower priced aways when they represent marginal value and the performance of low value aways in the Premiership. Both types of bets will be dropped next season. I'll keep backing Premiership Aways when they are deemed to be very high value and I'll keep backing lower priced aways when my ratings suggest they are high value bets. These types of bets don't happen often as it's hard to find value with low priced aways but after a bit of research, it's clear that when they come along, they are worth following.

As I said a while back, one reason for doing the system reviews for last season is so we can update our betting banks for each system. I've given this a bit of thought and I'm going to recommend slightly higher betting banks than I suggested for last season.

I usually go with twice the largest drop from the peak but for this season, I'm going to suggest 2.5 times the largest drop from the peak. I know that most people choose a betting bank that suits them anyway, regardless of what I say but I don't mind sacrificing a higher ROC (return on capital) to ensure I don't put my betting bank under pressure at any point in time.

The betting banks for this season are therefore:



As you will see, I've suggested betting banks for anyone wishing to use Draw No Bets this season. This isn't my preferred approach but after what happened this season, I wouldn't blame anyone who wants to follow this type of betting next season.

That's my first major piece of work completed then for next season which isn't bad considering it's still May! My next task is to build a new set of ratings which looks to maximise returns from Draw No Bets instead of the traditional Home and Away betting. I'll be back later in the week to update on how this is going......

I'm back.....

Just a quick post to say that I’m back looking at the football again. I’ve even started building my new set of systems based on Draw No Bet for next season!

As I said before I went away, my first task this summer is to carry out a review of all the systems from this season and decide which systems remain and which systems will be dropped. I’ll also be looking at ways to improve the ratings and the systems for next season.

At the same time, I’m going to building my new rating algorithm for next season. I’ve started it and I’ve actually run the first cut of data but it needs a fair bit of work. It seems to throw up far too many value bets now that I’m including draw coverage. If I went with the ratings as they are now, I’d be backing teams in about 50% of the games each weekend! Clearly a small flaw in there somewhere and I need to spend a helluva lot of time on this as there are no shortcuts.

With regards to next season, the Secret Betting Club has confirmed that they are happy for me to post my new system bets in their forum next season. Hence, the DNB bets will be proofed in their forum as well as on the blog and to the SBC themselves.

As discussed on the Q&A post a few weeks back, this means that these bets will be released to SBC members first and then posted on the blog at a later time. All I’m doing is giving a little bit of exclusivity to the SBC members for these bets as I’m a member of the SBC myself and I think members might like to track how these bets do next season.

Anyway, that will do for now. Keep an eye on the system reviews section as that is where I’ll be discussing the reviews for each of the systems this season. I’ll try to give updates on the blog of how things are going.

I'll be back.......

As I said last week, I’m taking a break from the blog for a week. I think it’s important to get some time away from this game and considering the amount of work I’ve got to do this summer on the footie in preparation for next season, it makes sense to take a break now, just as the season is drawing to a close.

I’m conscious of the fact the blog is growing and now has 5 parts to it and therefore, anyone who stumbles across the blog probably won’t have a clue what’s going on! Here’s a quick rundown of the blog:

The Home Page is just the daily blog where I’ve been posted up the system bets and results since the start of the season.

The 2010/11 Monthly Results is where I’ve been putting the monthly reviews as to how the systems have been performing on a monthly basis. This is basically the summation of the daily views on a monthly basis.

The Historical Results – 06/07-09/10 shows the backfitted and backtested system results back to 2006. Earlier backfitted results aren’t included on the blog for reasons discussed previously.

The 2010/11 Season Review is a very high level rundown of the past season. Is probably a good starting point for anyone who stumbles across this post!

I’ve added a new section today though and this is called System Reviews - 2010/11. This area will be used for a review of all the systems alive for the 2010/11 season. I’ll run through the performance of each system and decide which systems will be dropped for next season and highlight any additional filters I’ll be using from next season. I’ll also highlight the betting banks for next season for each system.

As a taster of the info that will be shown on the system review section, I’ve added some info about system 6 for this season. I have this for every system but it will take time to get it on the blog and of course, I’ll need to write what the information is telling us and how we can use it going forward!

As always, any questions, drop me a comment.

If anyone does comment, I’ll not post the comment until I get back from my break. Hence, you’re not being ignored if you ask a question or make an observation!

Goodbye 2010/11....Hello to 2011/12

The monthly review for May-11 is now up on the monthly review section of the blog. Overall, it was a decent month with a profit of 56pts (53% ROI) but as I say in the review, you need to keep things in perspective. It only recoups 53% of the loss made in April.

I think before I move onto next season and planning for that, I should just do a quick post on the season that I'm leaving behind. As I've said before, my season ended at the weekend although there is still one set of Premiership games to take place next season.

Due to the fact I've had the blog this season and I've written regular monthly reviews also, it isn't my intention to write a 'fantastic' season end review as there is no point. I'd just be repeating everything I've said throughout the season and it becomes repetitive to write, let alone read! Hence, I've kept it very short and created a new section on the blog where I've posted it.

The systems have ended with an 8.9% ROI this season which at the end of the day, isn't a disaster and is probably a fair reflection of the season. I wanted judged on system 8 this season if I had to pick one as it was the system I had most confidence in at the outset and it has ended the season with a 9% return. All of these bets have been proofed since day one this season.

Now that I've finished the monthly review for May and the season review, I can get started with building towards doing much better next season. The starting place for this is a review of all the systems from this season........

Nice way to end the season!

I think the weekend sums up so much of what this football project is about for me and in addition, highlights how good/bad this season has been (depends if you drink from the cup of optimism or pessimism!)

As I said on Thursday, I would have struggled to bet on these teams if it wasn't for my ratings/systems suggesting I do. I said I would be amazed if Birmingham played poorly at home against Fulham but thankfully, my ratings don't have the same opinions as I do!

Fulham beat them very easily and Birmingham now have a serious chance of relegation as I'll be surprised if they can get anything at Spurs on the final day.

At 11/4, as I said on Thursday, Fulham were a high value bet but I honestly didn't think they'd win. They did though and at the end of the day, that's the power of systems and ratings. I know many people don't like following systems blindly and until this season, I was one of them but as the season has gone on, I've grown to like the idea of just placing bets because my Excel sheet tells me to! Yeah, there are times when it throws up bets when teams have injuries, suspensions, change of manager, motivational issues and so on but at the end of the day, the backfitted and backtested results include these games also. Hence, there isn't a good reason to deviate away from what the systems say. In addition, in many circumstances, the bookies have already taken these external factors into account as punters latch onto the obvious team to bet on and therefore, it usually pays to go against the herd at this betting game.

The Wigan game made me smile. Anyone who's been following all season will know about the number of times I've had late goals go against me, the number of teams throwing away 2-0 or 3-0 leads and of course, the number of times my teams have fought back from being behind to win the game. Yeah, not too many of the last set!

Anyway, I was pleased to see Wigan win and people may look at that and see a lucky win but it all needs to be put in perspective. Wigan appeared on 5 systems and therefore, it was a swing of 11.25pts for me. I can rattle off at least 5 times this season (probably many more) where I've had 20pts+ swings against me with last minute goals and it hurts a lot more when you've got a decent bet on a team at 2/1 who let a goal slip late on to draw!

The other game finished 0-0 and I was one goal away in that one from a perfect weekend. Of course, I was one goal away in the Wigan game from hitting 2 draws in 3 games again, so I shouldn't curse my luck too much!

Overall, a profit was made on every system and it was a profit of 27pts across all systems. DNB also had a decent day with 2 winners and the draw.

I'll be doing my May monthly review and then I'll do a quick post on here with a summary of the season. After that, the work begins for next season and the starting point is a summary of every system this season in a live environment. I'll also be taking a look at betting banks based on this season's live results and looking at any possible extra filters/tweaks for each system I can use to maybe increase the returns a little.

I'll do a quick post on here to let you know when the May monthly review is written as it should be fairly short to write.

Last bets this season......

I can't help but feel that this weekend is going to be a washout or a great weekend. There are only 3 value bets thrown up but Fulham and St Johnstone are both thrown up as mid-high value bets and appear on most systems.

Looking at the games and the teams involved, I think they are probably both high in value but being honest, I'm not sure I'd back these two without my ratings telling me to!

Fulham are away at Birmingham and although Birmingham haven't been as good at home this season as they usually are, they still don't lose many games at home to lower half sides. In addition, Birmingham have a much, much greater incentive than Fulham to win this one or at least, to not lose this one and of course, my ratings can't take this into account.

I wouldn't go as far to say I'll be amazed (I'm never amazed at this game!) but I'll be surprised if Birmingham let Fulham leave with 3pts on Sunday!

St Johnstone are an obvious bet away to St Mirren with 3 wins on the spin and St Mirren having won once in a long time in midweek. I've got St Johnstone around 13/8 in this one and therefore, they are clearly overpriced. However, again, I'm not sure they have much to play for and neither team do tbh.

The final team thrown up is Wigan at home and I see this one a real tricky tie. Not a clue about this one but this bet is more about West Ham being rubbish rather than Wigan being good!

Overall, I can easily see none of the teams getting a result this weekend for me and it could be a disaster way to end the season! We'll see what happens.

The Football Analyst Bets for 14th/15th May

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
15/05/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Fulham Fulham 3.75 Betfred
15/05/2011 Premiership Wigan v West Ham Wigan 2.25 Ladbrokes
14/05/2011 SPL St Mirren v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.25 PP

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
15/05/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Fulham Fulham 3.75 Betfred
15/05/2011 Premiership Wigan v West Ham Wigan 2.25 Ladbrokes
14/05/2011 SPL St Mirren v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.25 PP

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
15/05/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Fulham Fulham 3.75 Betfred
14/05/2011 SPL St Mirren v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.25 PP

System 9
None

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
15/05/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Fulham Fulham 3.75 Betfred
15/05/2011 Premiership Wigan v West Ham Wigan 2.25 Ladbrokes
14/05/2011 SPL St Mirren v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.25 PP

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
15/05/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Fulham Fulham 3.75 Betfred
14/05/2011 SPL St Mirren v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.25 PP

System 23
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
15/05/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Fulham Fulham 3.75 Betfred
14/05/2011 SPL St Mirren v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.25 PP

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
15/05/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Fulham Fulham 3.75 Betfred
15/05/2011 Premiership Wigan v West Ham Wigan 2.25 Ladbrokes
14/05/2011 SPL St Mirren v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.25 PP

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
15/05/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Fulham Fulham 3.75 Betfred
14/05/2011 SPL St Mirren v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.25 PP

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
15/05/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Fulham Fulham 3.75 Betfred
15/05/2011 Premiership Wigan v West Ham Wigan 2.25 Ladbrokes
14/05/2011 SPL St Mirren v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.25 PP

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
15/05/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Fulham Fulham 3.75 Betfred
14/05/2011 SPL St Mirren v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.25 PP

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
15/05/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Fulham Fulham 3.75 Betfred
14/05/2011 SPL St Mirren v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.25 PP

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
15/05/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Fulham Fulham 3.75 Betfred
14/05/2011 SPL St Mirren v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.25 PP

System 16
Date League Game Selection Odds
15/05/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Fulham Fulham 3.50 Bookies
15/05/2011 Premiership Wigan v West Ham Wigan 2.15
14/05/2011 SPL St Mirren v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.25 PP
1 Treble = 1 Bet

System 17
None

System 18
Nonje

System 19
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
15/05/2011 Premiership Birmingham v Fulham Fulham 3.50
15/05/2011 Premiership Wigan v West Ham Wigan 2.15
14/05/2011 SPL St Mirren v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.25 PP
Any 2 and all 3 = 4 Bets

System 20
None

Answers to Questions

As discussed the other day, there were a number of questions that people have asked me recently either via the blog or via email. I have pulled together answers to all these questions below. As usual, if there are any more questions, then please get in touch.

Once we get this weekend out of the way, I'll be taking a week or so off to recharge my batteries and then I'll be getting straight into the research for the next season. I've a lot of work to do this summer and I plan on throwing myself straight into it after my break.

I discuss this below but I've written off to the Secret Betting asking them if they'd allow me to post bets from my new algorithm in their forum next season before I share them on the blog. These bets will all be untried but I'm confident I can build something to work this summer. How they respond will determine exactly what happens with these bets next season but I need to try to get myself some publicity for here if I'm going to make a go of this on a more professional basis in future if I want to go down that road.

I hope the below answers most of the questions people have asked me.

1). Where can people sign up for next season?

At the moment, I’m still thinking about how things will look for next season. My initial thoughts are that I’ll continue to use the blog to post the bets which are proofed from this season and any analysis of the systems going forward.

I had a free email list this season where I sent the bets out each week. It is my intention to continue this next season and my only decision I need to make is whether I charge a small fee for doing this. Being honest, it doesn’t make a great difference if you receive the bets on the blog or via an email in terms of odds movement but of course, if I charged a small fee for an email distribution, it would give me greater incentive to run things more professionally and ties me into this project for another season. Aside from this, it also gives me some guaranteed return next season for 16 months of unpaid work so far!

In addition, some people would probably prefer to receive an email with a spreadsheet with the bets rather than pick them off the blog. Lastly, there was once or twice last season when I struggled to get time to post the bets on the blog in time for the games but I managed to send out my bets via email as I know how important it is to get all these bets proofed externally. An email list would ensure people get all the bets I hope.

As soon as I decide what I’m doing, I’ll let people know on here. I’ve had a few comments/emails saying that people would prefer to pay a small fee to receive the bets first rather than join a bun fight with lots of others to try to get best prices when I post on the blog. Hence, I can probably cater for both the free market and the subscription market and keep everyone happy!

I’m still waiting to hear back from the Secret Betting Club (SBC) but I’m hoping to proof the bets from my new rating algorithm on the SBC forum next season. If the SBC agree, I would post up these bets on their forum each week and then follow up the bets with a post on the blog. These bets are all untried of course (not built the rating algorithm yet!) and therefore, I wouldn’t dream of charging anyone for these bets. I would happily run a free subscription list for these bets too via email but I would like to give them to SBC members first via their forum.

Overall then, plans are still fairly fluid for next season. I feel like the above plan meets my aim of pleasing both sets of subscribers (free and paying) and also gives me access to a potential new set of subscribers via the SBC forum for the following season if they allow me to post my bets on there. I’ll update on here when plans are more solid.

2). Will numbers be capped?

I’m guessing this question was related to fact that I may charge people next season. As I say above, if I did charge a fee for next season, it would be to those people that wanted to pay to receive a spreadsheet with the bets before they are published on the blog. However, to be fair to people receiving the bets, I would cap the numbers if many people were interested in this option.

It’s really hard with something like this as I’ve no idea why anyone would pay (they’ll get the bets free later!) and therefore, it isn’t really a case of supply and demand. No idea about the sort of fee anyone would pay for this and I don’t want to put myself into competition with other tipster services next season as they’ll probably wipe the floor with me! So, in essence, I would cap numbers but no idea at what number and it would depend on the fee people would be willing to pay! I don't plan on trying to make a living from this. lol

3). When will bets be sent out and when will they appear on the blog?

This really depends on what happens with the SBC and my new rating algorithm but I’m thinking something along the lines of:

Thursday 7pm – (Paid or Free) Email list receives bets from ‘proofed systems’
Friday Noon – Bets from ‘proofed systems’ appear on blog
Friday 7pm – SBC forum receives bets from new rating algorithm
Late Friday – Free Email list will be sent the 'new' bets and 'new' bets posted on the blog

Of course, due to the fact this isn’t a professional tipping service, I could NEVER guarantee that these times and days are met. I’m often away from work on business which means I struggle to get things done and of course, I can’t put this project before my work or home life. However, my aim would be to keep things as consistent as I can each week.

If the SBC aren’t interested in me proofing my new bets exclusively on their forum, I’ll use the blog for these bets also and include them when I post the other bets.

4). Which bookies will prices be quoted from?

For this season, I have only used the bookies on oddschecker and Pinnacle as this is the bookmaker accounts that I have. I don’t have any accounts with bookmakers such as 10Bet, 12Bet, 188bet, 5 Dimes, Bet At Home, Betsafe, Centrebet, Dafabet, Extrabet, Gamebookers, Mybet, Nordicbet, SBO bet etc.

Going forward, I would continue to quote the best price I take from the bookies on oddschecker and Pinnacle only. Quite often, better is available at these other bookmakers that I don’t have accounts with but all my results include the price I take on my bets as it’s easier for my own bet recording!

I won’t pretend that everyone will get the odds on every bet no problem but in many circumstances, better odds will be available I think. Hence, in the long-run, it probably doesn’t make a big difference. In addition, many of the prices at kick-off are better than the odds I take myself, so I think as long as people act consistently; they’ll be OK and will get close to my returns.

5). Which systems will be live and what will they be called? What will the new systems be called and are they worth following?

I’ve thought long and hard about whether I change the names of these systems to something more attractive and easier to remember but I’ll stick with the system names as I’ve grown quite fond of them. Hence, the numbers will be staying!

Next season, I’ll have systems 6,7,8,21,22 and systems 6-21,6-22,7-21,7-22,8-21 and 8-22. 11 single bet systems in total that were proofed this season.

I’ll also have systems 31,32 and 33 which will be from my new rating algorithm for next season.

I’ll also have two other new systems called 6-21-31 and 7-22-32 which will show all the bets that appear on each algorithm. I’ve no idea what systems 31-33 look like yet, so I’m not exactly sure how these two systems will look either but I like to plan ahead.

Overall then, we’ll have the 11 systems from this season, plus 5 new systems for next season. 16 systems in total.

The 5 new systems will purely be trial systems for next season and should only be followed with minimum stakes at most!

This means that systems 9 and 23 will join the TFA scrapheap, along with systems 16-20 which were the multiple bet systems as they haven’t done as well as I hoped this season. I’ll explain more in my season review of why I’m dropping these systems but it is a fairly easy decision.

6). Is Double Chance a viable method to follow?

As I mentioned the other day on here, after a bit of thought and a bit of behind the scenes analysis, I don’t believe this is a viable method to follow going forward. Although the returns look OK and fairly steady, I don’t like the idea of suggesting some people back the win and the draw with my selections as it feels like I’m trying to cover my ass all the time which isn’t the intention. I’m happy for people to use Draw No Bet as a way to reduce the variance of the returns but Double Chance is playing on the fact that my ratings find a lot of draws and that’s the thing I want to avoid! Hence, there will be no more discussion or analysis involving Double Chance betting.

7). What betting bank does each system need? What are the drawdowns for each system?

This will be covered in the pre-season analysis after I’ve done more work on the ratings and systems this summer.

8). Can I graph the drawdowns for DNB v traditional HvA betting? Can I compare the volatility of DNB v HvA betting?

Yes and this will be covered in the summer after I’ve done more work on the ratings.

Reply to Greg

I've been asked a very good question from Greg and if I'm honest, it's something I should have thought about looking at before now but I'm always wary of trying to draw any meaningful conclusions from data that is 100% backfitted. Simply, you will NEVER manage to achieve a return in future that is similar to your results from backfitting a multi-variate model to your data. Simply, the more variables your model has, the more backfitted the data is likely to be and the less reliable this data is likely to be when it comes to trying to project the future.

Anyway, for this reason, I deliberately don't use the data from the very early seasons which I used to build the ratings as it would make my results look too good in all honesty!

Greg has asked me to graph the results from the early seasons along with the most recent seasons to get a long term view. I can't stress enough how misleading the results may be (what happens during backfitting isn't likely to happen when the systems go live blah blah) but caveats aside, I thought it was something worth looking at.

After a wee bit of work, I can now share these graphs.

Before doing this analysis today, my hypothesis would have been that the early seasons produce some sort of exponential returns if I graph a trend curve over the P&L line and then as we move into more backtesting and less backfitting, things level off. Here's the results below:







The top graph shows the P&L as requested by Greg. The second graph shows the same P&L but I have highlighted where the periods of backfitting take place, along with where there is a mixture of backfitting/backtesting and where backfitting only occurs. At the end, we can also see the live results this season.

The final graph is one for my own curiosity only and it shows the trend line from fitting a polynomial trend line to the 6th degree. i.e. Ax^6+Bx^5+Cx^4+Dx^3+Ex^2+Fx+G

As you can clearly see, the data that is backfitted seems to produce a much more exponential curve whereas the backtested data/live data produces something more akin to a linear curve. During my backfitting, my aim was to try to produce 45 degree profitability curves and you can see from my previous post that the backtesting produced what I was after.

As an aside and you'd need to look at my previous post again, the first half of this season in the live environment actually produced returns which were more in line with an exponential trend (i.e. the backfitting rather than the backtesting) but the second half of the season has put paid to anything like a 45 degree P&L this season as it has been loss making.

Just on that loss making point. You can see much bigger drops during the backtesting seasons using my rating algorithms than I experienced during the backtesting amazingly. Something I hadn't noticed before but clearly, my backtesting seemed to work out pretty well as it was a nearly perfect 45 degree P&L line. In reality, looking at these 9 seasons now, there has been at least 2 periods where the systems lost more points that they have lost since Christmas this season. Hence, my systems aren't on a worst ever run.

I hope the above answers your question Greg. It's actually helped me out doing this as I've realised that my systems have had a worse run than they are on at the moment. Hence, I'm probably going over the top about how bad this run is. Yeah, it's the worst in 5 seasons but it's not the worst in 9 seasons...... lol

A picture paints a thousand words.....

I'm in the process of writing up the question and answer post I promised on here the other day but I'm waiting to hear back from someone relating to my 3rd algorithm I hope to build. If I don't hear back within the next day or so, I'll post up the answers to the questions I can answer and I'll explain my thinking around the 3rd algorithm bets.

In the meantime, to keep the blog ticking over, I thought I'd do a quick post looking at the returns of all the system bets combined. I had a good comment exchange with Mouldhouse on my last post and he raised the point that he'd much rather follow a larger number of bets from a combination of systems rather than just follow one system with a high ROI.

My own thinking and gambling philosophy is quite similar as with the larger number of bets, you are less likely to be affected by short-term variance. Obviously, people get around this by following more than just tipster and this has the same effect in many ways but in my case, I only follow my football bets in my portfolio, so I need to play a good number of bets each week to try to reduce the risk.

Anyway, I thought it was worth posting up a few graphs showing the returns in points from following all of the system bets. I thought it would be good to look at the last 5 seasons (all results), the last 3 seasons (backtested and this seasons results only) and of course, this season's results.

I think at times, it is pretty easy to get bogged down in ROI with this game and I know for a fact that not everyone will understand my tables I post as they contain a lot of information and not everyone likes to analyse tables and numbers. However, a picture can tell the story at times and I think these 3 graphs tell the story of my football modelling pretty clear!







There is so much you can say about these graphs but unusually for me, I'm not going to say a thing! As I said above, I honestly believe these 3 graphs tell the story of the football systems pretty well.

I'll be back later or tomorrow when I finish the Q&A post I'm writing.

No Midweek Bets

As I suggested last night, there are no midweek bets this week. That only leaves this weekend as the last set of bets this season and then that's the season completed for my ratings. I'm away when the last set of games in the Premiership are played the weekend of the 22nd and therefore, there will be no ratings produced for these games in advance of them taking place.

I'll post up any bets for this weekend on Thursday night.

Just a couple of quick things. I've had a comment from 'Your New Blog Reader' on a post a few days ago suggesting that the draw % in the leagues this season is only slightly higher than previous seasons and therefore, my numbers don't look entirely accurate.

There is a simple explanation (all my draw analysis is on my system bets and not on all the leagues) and my full reply is in the comment section but I think it does raise an important point about this blog. All of the building of the ratings and systems was done behind closed doors in the TFA forum over 12 months ago and therefore, it is difficult for blog readers to pick up the thread at times on here. In addition, all my early analysis this season when things were going great sits within the TFA forum and it was only at Christmas that I started to use the blog for any analysis. Until Christmas, the blog was purely a results tracking blog as that's the way I wanted it to be with no posts on any detailed analysis.

If anyone has any questions about anything I post, don't be afraid to ask me. I'd rather people ask me what's going on rather than just going on and not understanding what's going on.

I've also had a question from someone this morning looking for a high strike rate system that only looks at homes. I've mentioned this in the TFA forum plenty of times but it's fairly easy to create your own system using the other system bets. In addition, if people ask me to build a system to suit their particular needs, it's fairly easy for me to point out a system for them to follow.

I'll add this to my list of things to do this Summer but to give you a flavour of how easy it is......

I know the second algorithm finds much stronger home bets than the first algorithm. This can be seen by the fact that over the 5 seasons now, System 21 has an ROI of 25% on homes against an ROI of 12% on System 6.

Looking at this season only, System 21 has an ROI of 15.3% and system 6 has an ROI of 2.1% on Homes. Hence, it fits in with the backtesting although again, both systems have disappointed this season on homes (and aways!)

So, why can't we just back the homes on system 21? Well, we can do. Over the last 5 seasons, the strike rate has been 66%,64%,63%,68% and 60% this season. The profits have been 40pts,27pts,29pts,32pts and a measly 14pts this season.

This isn't doing anything fancy but isolating the home bets from the away bets on one system. It has produced 558 bets in 5 seasons and 93 bets this season in particular.

Following 100 bets in a season for strong home bets isn't everyone's cup of tea (definitely not mines!) but I can see the attraction of backing 1 or 2 teams a week on average with decent stakes at odds of around Evs.

As I keep saying on here and in the TFA forum, I'm sure that there is a system that suits everyone and it's important that people think about what sort of system suits them before next season. There is no guarantee that their system will be profitable next season (there is never a guarantee at this game that your edge remains from one season to the next) but I personally don't mind losing money following something I believe in and that's been my attitude since day one on the footie.

I hope this answers the question from the anonymous poster this morning. I think having ratings that can make a profit is one thing and being honest, it's not the hardest thing in the world to produce footie ratings to make a small profit over a large sample of bets. The hardest thing in the world is to use the ratings to maximise your profit and that's the bit I think I can do better than anyone else in this game hopefully!

Much Better

A much better day yesterday with a profit being made on every system.

They key game was the game I highlighted on Friday and Aldershot at 3/1 managed to win easily away at Lincoln. As I suggested on Friday, they looked to be massive value (they’d usually be 6/4 in that game and I would have still backed them to win!) but you can never be sure at this time of the season if the ratings work as well as they do at other times.

Thankfully, they won 3-0 and that set up the ratings to have a very good day. I also found Swindon at 4/1 and St Johnstone at 5/2, so it was always going to be a good day. A profit of 8pts was made from the 12 games picked out.

7 wins, 4 losses and 1 draw (I know, amazing!) was found yesterday and as usually happens when the draw % is very low, the ratings do very well. As I’ve said all season, I just need the draw % to hit the average mark and the ratings will make nice profits but since Christmas, this hasn’t happened very often! Days like yesterday help to repair some of the damage done but to put it in perspective, it wins back 25% of last month’s losses!

Overall, there were 76 system bets which produced 40 wins, 25 losses and only 11 draws. A profit of 29pts across the systems.

With the low draw %, DNB didn’t do nearly as well with a profit of 11pts only and of course, Double Chance performed poorly and basically broke even on a good day for the systems! The multiple bets were useless again and that’s one trial that won’t continue beyond this season.

Just on that point, I’ve been thinking long and hard about next season and although it’s not the really the post to announce it (it’s likely to get lost in here), I WON’T be suggesting Double Chance as a way to follow my bets going forward. I’ll even stop tracking it as it just confuses the picture a little I think with my results.

My issue with DC is that it relies on the ratings finding draws. As I know only too well, draws are the thing I want to avoid with this game and therefore, it doesn’t feel right that I suggest DC as an alternative method to follow my bets. All my work this summer will be about trying to adjust the ratings to find less draws and therefore, I hope to reduce the profitability of DC betting significantly. If not, I’ll fail at this game.

In addition, it feels a little like I’m using DC as a back-up plan if things don’t work with my ratings and that’s not my intention. The purpose here is to find teams to win and therefore, tracking DC returns seems slightly unfair and I don’t want to be judged on DC. If DC does well, it means my ratings aren’t working as well as they should do like this season!

The other obvious point about DC is that backing the draw is heavily loss making as I’ve shown a few times on here. Yeah, it has been very profitable in 2011 but that’s a one-off as I keep saying. Long-term, although DC may be profitable, it is due to the selection winning that makes it profitable. Bringing in the draw just reduces profitability as backing the draw isn’t profitable overall.

What this means though is that my 3rd rating algorithm will definitely be based on DNB next season. I’ll keep my first two algorithms and the new one I build will look to maximise DNB returns going forward.

People could argue that DNB is also a cop out with my ratings since I’m still having something on the draw but simply, I see DNB as a way to reduce the variance in the returns and nothing more. Long-term, DNB won’t beat backing the teams to win outright but many people would happily forego a risky 15% return for a more likely 10% return and therefore, that’s why DNB may be useful for some people.

A quick update on the season overall. After yesterday’s results, it means that the first rating algorithm is sitting with an ROI of 3.8% this season from 570 bets (system 6) and my second rating algorithm is sitting with an ROI of 4.1% from 486 bets (system 21). Teams that appear on both algorithms (6-21) is sitting with an ROI of 8.2% from 295 bets.

Obviously, I could point to the other systems and some systems have a much higher return and (some lower admittedly) but overall, looking at all the games this season on all systems, the ROI is 8.1% from 2,877 games.

I know it isn’t what I aimed for at the start of the season (10%+ was a minimum and 21% was the target) but now that the season is winding down, an ROI of 8% or thereabouts isn’t a disaster I guess. I’ve been exchanging emails with a couple of guys about next season who have used other ratings/tipsters this season and they seem to be suggesting that my ROI this season may actually be above the others in the tipster market and at the very least, allows me to hold my own in the market. Definitely gives me some hope that I haven’t wasted 17 months of my life for nothing!

Thanks for the couple of comments to my last post. I’m guessing that the questions I put up in the post maybe cover most of what people want to know but if there are any more questions, please let me know. I’ll start writing that Q&A post early this week and hopefully get it posted up later this week.

There are 7 midweek games this week and looking quickly, I can’t see there being a bet but I’m nowhere near updating the stuff from yesterday yet. I’ll post up any bets tomorrow night.

Question and Answer Session

I'm not sure what's happened but this season isn't over yet, has been loss making since Christmas and yet, I'm starting to receive a fair few comments about next season and what it will look like. Also had a couple of emails asking about this too. Considering I was thinking of giving up on this a few weeks back, it seems people are more interested in this than when the ratings were hugely profitable! :(

I'm trying my best to keep track of questions as and when they are being asked by various people but I thought it might help if I put up a post asking for anyone to come forward with questions now. I don't want to get bogged down this summer with admin and answering questions day in, day out as my time needs to be spent working with the data I think. However, before this season ends, if people can put up any questions on this post, I'll do a Q&A post at some point soon.

The questions I've been asked in the past 24 hours or so are (Thanks to Alvin/Alex/David for these as a starter for ten):

Where can people join the mailing list I mentioned?
Will numbers be capped? If not, can you pay to get the bets first?
Will bets be sent out before appearing on blog?
What systems will be live?
What betting banks does each system need?
What are the drawdowns for each system for DNB?
Can I graph the drawdowns for each system for outright betting, DNB, DC?
Can I compare volatility of DNB and outright on each system?
Is DC a viable method to follow e.g. Is backing the draw profitable?

A few questions which I feel need answering from an admin perspective are:

When will the bets be sent out and posted on the blog next season?
Which bookies will prices be quoted from?
What will the new systems be called? Will these be worth following?
Which systems are being dropped?

I'm sure there are some people reading this blog who have some questions to ask and therefore, feel free to ask away on here. I'll collate any questions, structure them in some sort of way and then do a post answering the questions as best I can. Many questions will not be answerable until after this Summer but if people want to look at certain systems or staking plans etc. ask away and I'll log all these too.

I said to someone in an email today that I'm not their personal footie analyst and therefore, I can't answer all their questions at once! However, this blog is the place to do that stuff I guess and over the summer, with no football taking place, this is the time to try to push this analysis further and hopefully help some people come up with ways to make a profit next season from my footie ratings. Hence, if there is anything you think is worth looking at, drop me a comment or even an email if it's too long for a comment and I'll take a look at it.

Weekend Bets

Here's the bets for the weekend. Before I looked at the fixtures this weekend but glanced at the betting, after the bets thrown up last weekend, I had a feeling I'd be taking on most of the teams at the bottom of the league who need points this weekend as the betting seems skewed towards these sort of teams as they need to win.

According to my figures, Aldershot are one of the biggest value bets this season at 3/1 away to Lincoln as Lincoln are useless. Lincoln have no wins in their last 10 and have lost their last 3 home games 6-0, 4-0 and 2-0! They are odds on this weekend though. They need a point to stay up (depending on what happens with Barnet) and they may need to win. Unfortunately, my ratings can't take this into account and Aldershot are thrown up as a massive value bet as they should be 6/4 and they are 3/1!

Gillingham are unbeaten in their last 11 away games and yet, can be backed at 12/5 in a game they need to win to get into the playoffs. Chesterfield are already promoted and are having a promotion party but need a point to win the league. Their is nothing between these two either, so 12/5 is huge.

Port Vale won 7-2 last time out and yet, are 13/5 against Barnet who are useless. Of course, Barnet need to win and Port Vale don't!

Newcastle are different class to Birmingham and have scored 4,5,5,6 against bottom half sides at home this season in 4 of the games and even beat Birmingham easily 2-0 in Birmingham which is amazing considering the record Birmingham have at home. Of course, Newcastle and Birmingham probably both need a point each to stay up. Draw anyone?

As you can see, I'm being quite cynical about this weekend's games but I honestly don't know what to make of it. I keep telling myself this sort of thing is in all my backtesting and backfitting each season and therefore, I can't do anything about this but follow the bets as I usually do.

This is meant to be a trial season and therefore, I'm curious to see what happens!


The Football Analyst Bets for 7th May

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals
07/05/2011 Championship Leicester v Ipswich Leicester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Rochdale Bournemouth 2.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 1 Colchester v Bristol Rovers Colchester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 1 Southampton v Walsall Southampton 1.73 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 1 Tranmere v Swindon Swindon 5.00 B365
07/05/2011 League 2 Barnet v Port Vale Port Vale 3.60 VC
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 SPL Hamilton v Hibs Hibs 2.80 Ladbrokes

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals
07/05/2011 Championship Leicester v Ipswich Leicester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 1 Colchester v Bristol Rovers Colchester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 1 Southampton v Walsall Southampton 1.73 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 SPL Hamilton v Hibs Hibs 2.80 Ladbrokes

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals
07/05/2011 Championship Leicester v Ipswich Leicester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 1 Southampton v Walsall Southampton 1.73 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 SPL Hamilton v Hibs Hibs 2.80 Ladbrokes

System 9
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals
07/05/2011 Championship Leicester v Ipswich Leicester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 1 Colchester v Bristol Rovers Colchester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Barnet v Port Vale Port Vale 3.60 VC
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 SPL Aberdeen v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.50 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 SPL Hamilton v Hibs Hibs 2.80 Ladbrokes

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals
07/05/2011 League 2 Barnet v Port Vale Port Vale 3.60 VC
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes

System 23
None

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Barnet v Port Vale Port Vale 3.60 VC
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 1 Colchester v Bristol Rovers Colchester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 SPL Hamilton v Hibs Hibs 2.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 Championship Leicester v Ipswich Leicester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Barnet v Port Vale Port Vale 3.60 VC
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 1 Colchester v Bristol Rovers Colchester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 SPL Hamilton v Hibs Hibs 2.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 Championship Leicester v Ipswich Leicester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 SPL Hamilton v Hibs Hibs 2.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 Championship Leicester v Ipswich Leicester 1.80 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40 B365
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 4.00 Ladbrokes
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 2.00 Corals

System 16 Bet 1
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40
07/05/2011 League 1 Colchester v Bristol Rovers Colchester 1.80
07/05/2011 SPL Hamilton v Hibs Hibs 2.75
07/05/2011 Championship Leicester v Ipswich Leicester 1.80 Corals
Any 3,4 and all 5 = 16 Bets

System 16 Bet 2
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 3.80
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 1.95
07/05/2011 League 1 Southampton v Walsall Southampton 1.70 VC
Any 2 and all 3 = 4 Bets

System 17
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 1.91
07/05/2011 League 2 Barnet v Port Vale Port Vale 3.60
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 3.75 B365
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets

System 18
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40
07/05/2011 SPL Hamilton v Hibs Hibs 2.75
07/05/2011 Championship Leicester v Ipswich Leicester 1.80
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 3.75 Corals
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets

System 19
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40
07/05/2011 League 1 Colchester v Bristol Rovers Colchester 1.80
07/05/2011 SPL Hamilton v Hibs Hibs 2.75
07/05/2011 Championship Leicester v Ipswich Leicester 1.80 Corals
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets

System 20
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookie
07/05/2011 League 2 Barnet v Port Vale Port Vale 3.60
07/05/2011 League 2 Burton v Accrington Accrington 2.88
07/05/2011 League 2 Chesterfield v Gillingham Gillingham 3.40
07/05/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Aldershot Aldershot 3.75
07/05/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Birmingham Newcastle 1.91 B365
Any 2,3,4 and all 5 = 26 Bets

I rest my case your honour......

After writing my latest post yesterday and reading through it again today at lunchtime, it did make me wonder.....What if by including the 2006/7 and 2007/8 seasons in my results, this has been causing me to think things were behaving differently from the past when in reality, they weren't that different from the last couple of seasons?

As most people know now, from when I started out on this journey, I've only been quoting the last 4 season's results as the data I used to build the ratings from 2002-2006 is all backfitted data. If I was quoting these results, then I would be painting a misleading picture as the results for these years had ROI's of about 40% as I fixed the parameters of the two rating algorithms to maximise these results.

However, as I've quoted a fair few times now, I also used a sample of data from the 2006/7 and 2007/8 seasons to ensure my model wasn't using data from too long ago to miss any changes in trends. I randomly selected 50% of the games from 2006/7 and 2007/8 to include in my backfitted model and therefore, these years will always be slightly overstated. However, these seasons account for 1/6 (1/3 * 50%) of my full backfitted results and therefore, I was still fairly confident that the results weren't overstated in these seasons.

Admittedly, it would have been much better to just ignore the first two seasons completely and only look at the full 2 seasons of backtested results but my issue there was I only had 2 season's of data and it meant my sample size was only 5,164 games. I noticed a post by Cassini today about someone saying you needed 100,000 bets to be sure of an edge, so I'd be paper trading for the next 20 seasons under this scenario!

Anyway, I thought 5,164 games was too small to draw meaningful conclusions and that's why I've always went with 4 season's. 4 season's gave me 12,037 games and therefore, I was happy to go with this, on the understanding that my first two years were probably slightly inflated by around 20% I guess (hard to know for sure tbh as it depends how good the backfitting was in these 2 years compared to the backtested results!)

After writing yesterday's post, I could see clearly that the draw % was much lower in the first two seasons and therefore, this would be bringing down my overall draw % average. Hence, maybe this season's wasn't as bad compared to the last two season's backtested results.........



There is a lot of information to glean from this but whatever way you look at this, it shows my worries were unfounded. The one thing that stands out here though is how consistent the 08/09 and 09/10 seasons were. They had a very similar H/A/X % across both years. The draw % was remarkably similar with 26.1% in the first season and 26.4% in the second season.

To put this into perspective, the draw % for this season is 31.3%. That's an increase of a full 5% points or an increase of around 18% on last season.

Over the course of this season (2801 games), we can use the same draw % as last season at 26.4% to get an expected number of draws this season. This would be 740 draws. What have we had this season? 876 draws. Hence, 146 draws more than you would have expected, based on last season.

How much does this hurt the systems? Well, for every draw, the systems score -1pt. The average odds for my all bets is around the 7/4 mark (2.75). Using this as a proxy, we can say that each draw costs the systems 2.75pts (1.75pt profit as against 1pt loss). Hence, the systems have lost 400pts this season compared to last season.

This season, the systems have ONLY made a profit of 203pts with an ROI of 7.3%. If we add on the missing 400pts (sounds a lot when I say it!), then we'd be looking at an ROI of 21% for this season.

What was the ROI in the 2009/10 season? 21%. What was the ROI in the 2008/09 season? 21%.

I rest my case your honour.

Incidentally, the attachment also shows the draws by each system for the last 3 seasons. You can see just how badly some systems have been crippled this season by the draw.....

System 7 has a 32% draw rate this season compared to circa. 25% for the last two seasons
System 8 has a 30% draw rate this season compared to circa. 25% for the last two seasons
System 22 has a 33% draw rate this season compared to circa. 28% for the last two seasons
System 23 has a 36% draw rate (50% after Christmas!) this season compared to circa. 24% last season
All systems 6-21,6-22 et. al have draw rates much larger than the last two seasons as a result of this too

Whatever way you look at the data, this draw effect isn't caused by me backfitting results, having poor ratings, building poor systems etc. It is just short-term variance that has unfortunately lasted for half a season. Long-term though, the work I've done on this project isn't flawed I hope (and pray!)

'Your New Blog Reader' Comments

There were a couple of interesting comments posted by 'Your New Blog Reader' on a post from a few days ago. He was discussing about whether it may be better to play different strategies at different times of the year and it's actually something I mentioned in the TFA forum during February's bad spell as this was when I first realised there is potentially an issue after Christmas with my ratings. Here's both comments.

That was definitely a good read. I think it answered all of my questions about using variable stakes for your system. One important thing that I noticed (which you also mentioned in this post) is the fact that most losing months (with the exception of October 2008) came in the beginning of the year (or around second half of the season). I wonder what factors could be affecting this (probably some teams opting for a comfortable draw when they are safely in the top or may even player fatigue). But i think the important thing is that the first part of the season has historically been more profitable and this may very well be something to look out for next season. Anyway, thanks for answering my earlier queries. I look forward to reading more of your blog!

By the way, I've been looking at the performance of your system when using DNB and DC for the month of Jan - May. Please note that all results were taken from your April 11 post "Backing the Draw?".

From Jan - May 2007:
The H/A would have won around: 595.6 units
The DNB would have won around: 369 units
The DC would have gotten: 88.8 units

From Jan - May 2008:
The H/A: 208 units
The DNB: 165 units
The DC: -1.7 units

For the first 2 years of back testing your system. Backing the H/A would have produced around 50% more than simply backing the DNB (803.6 units vs. 534 units). The results for DC would not even be close. But the results for the DNB do get interesting once we look at the last 3 years.

For Jan - May 2009:
The H/A: 104.3 units
The DNB: 133.6 units

For Jan - May 2010:
The H/A: 266 units
The DNB: 229.9 units

For Jan - April 2011:
The H/A: -39.3 units
The DNB: 73.2 units

For the last 3 years, the DNB has outperformed the H/A by around 31% percent. Although I think this might be more of a reflection of what has been happening for the last 4 months (i.e. a ridiculous increase in draws), since 2009 and 2010 seem to cancel each other out. In addition, you said on "future analysis" that you may have overstated the profit of the DNB, so this might not be as promising as it looks.

Well I just wanted to point out that it might be an interesting thought to use variable stakes (i.e. using bigger values for months leading up to December) and then consider backing DNB instead (if this trend continues for the next season) to get a smoother ride since their recent ROI might not be as far apart anymore.

The picture below shows the returns for all the different types of betting (traditional H/A, DNB, DC, Draws) for each month going back to September 2006. Draws means backing the draw in each game selected by the system. I've also summarised the data by calendar month at the bottom of the monthly table. (Please be aware that for the purposes of continuity when reading the blog, my historical results for DNB/DC were wrong until recently as I was overstating DNB and understating DC. It's corrected now but it does mean that looking back when I've discussed these results before, they may not entirely tie up with the more recent results.)



If you look at the bottom of the table, you can see that there is a summary that splits the monthly data into months from Aug-Dec and Jan-May. The results clearly point to the fact that the first half of the season is more profitable than the second half of the season historically and we've certainly seen that this season also.

The same is true for DNB and DC (less so than DNB admittedly) and it is definitely the case for backing the draw. A substantial loss is shown in the first part of the season but a smaller loss in the second part of the season.

Now, looking at this data, all you can say is that you're more likely to make money in the first half of the season than the second half of the season but there is nothing too alarming that would want to make you think seriously about adopting a different approach from traditional H/A betting throughout the season.

However, and this is quite important and was overlooked by me earlier this year when I looked at this in the TFA forum, these results do include the seasons 2006/07 and 2007/08 which include some backfitted results. Although the results are not fully backfitted in these years, there is an element of backfitting in these years and therefore, they may be skewing the performance of the systems slightly as the backfitted results from 2002-2007 were much better than the backtested results in 2008 and 2009.

Stripping out the years with any backfitted results, how do the results look now?



Clearly, we can now see that there is a potential issue with the systems after Christmas. The ROI for the systems before Christmas is a healthy looking 24.7% but after Christmas, this falls to a lowly 7%. This includes this season's results which was a very high 30%+ before Christmas and a -ve ROI after Christmas.

Looking at DNB, it is 14.3% before Christmas and 8.5% after Christmas. Not quite the same drop off as traditional H/A betting but still a drop in return after Christmas.

Interestingly, looking at double chance, it looks much smoother. A return of 11.2% before Christmas and a return of 11.9% after Christmas.

You can see why this phenomenon occurs when you look at the returns from backing the draw. Before Christmas, this makes a near 600pt loss and after Christmas, this makes a profit of 377pts!

Obviously, this year is included in the results but even looking at this without this year included, backing the draw after Christmas was break-even before this season which is why double chance looks so good.

Although I don't want to draw too many conclusions at the moment and definitely now before I've spent an enormous amount of time on the ratings this summer and trying to understand how I can improve their profitability, I think there is plenty of evidence to suggest that I should be looking to get the draw on our side in some way or another. Whether this is done using DNB, DC or even a combination of DNB,DC and H/A betting throughout the season, I think there is enough evidence to involve me exploring this option for next season.

Thanks to 'A New Blog Reader' for the comments. I hope the above lets you see that you are actually onto something here although how we use the above info will always run the risk of backfitting something to fit the results which is not a route I want to go down!

In terms of variable staking, I probably agree that variable staking may actually work well with something like double chance betting, especially since the strike rate is very high and the average odds are low. Hence, it could be a steady way to increase your bank and your staking. Once I've decided on how I'm playing the bets next season, I'll then look at how to maximise the returns using different staking plans. This is definitely the last step in the process though for me and considering the work I need to do this summer, I won't be looking at this for a while!

Monthly Review

Just a quick post to say I've posted up the monthly review. Not much more to say other than it's the worst month the systems have ever had by a long way!

http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/p/20102011-season-results-so-far.html

Some Thoughts.....

OK, to follow on from my last post about the weekend results.

I deliberately took the last couple of days away from things to do with the footie. Anyone who knows me or who has been following the footie bets or even just reading the blog this season knows how much time, effort and dedication has gone into this project over the last 16 months and therefore, even though February was hard to take (it was my first ever losing month on the footie personally), April has been much harder to take.

I don’t want to bore everyone on here or in the TFA forum about how much I’ve put into this (it’s not hard to see as this sort of thing eats up your time like you’d never believe) but simply, this takes up so much of my time, I really need to have complete confidence in where I’m going with it. If the day comes when I feel like I can’t make this work going forward, I need to pull the plug on it and walk away as I can’t justify my time on this without making money from it.

I’m not afraid to admit that I’ve now made next to no money on the footie this season (own fault really as I changed stakes a few times this season and at Christmas, I thought I’d maybe built the Holy Grail when it comes to footie which meant another increase in stakes!) but unfortunately, the second half of the season has nearly wiped out all my profits from this season. Putting my personal betting to one side, the question I need to ask myself continually with this project is, am I any closer to finding something that works?

Even after February, I had a massive belief that it was a one-off month and after a fair bit of work looking at the monthly results statistically, I was confident that February was a once in 20 month event. Hence, months like February would come along 5% of the time and therefore, I knew what to expect.

Anyone who’s been reading the blog for a while will know all about February and all the statistical testing I carried out to try to find out how common a month like February was based on the past month’s results. Using a simple Standard Deviation approach, I figured that February had a circa. 5% chance of happening based on past months. The draw % was 38.5% in this month and to put it in perspective, the next highest month was 33.5%. I took February on the chin and said to myself that if months like this happen once every 20 months, I can take it and not worry too much about it. It was part of the game.

March then came along, won back all the points lost in February and even though the ROI on the systems had taken a massive hit after breaking even in 2 months, I wasn’t overly concerned about what had happened and still had belief that I was on track to build something really special here.

That led us onto April…..

I’ll spoil the fun from my monthly review but the draw % for April is 42.1%. Now, if you had hit a 42% strike rate with draws over a small sample of bets, I can understand that things like this can happen. However, the number of bets in April has been 439 bets. Hence, I’ve hit 185 draws in 439 games.

I’ve done the same analysis as I did with February and simply, the chances of April occurring based on past month’s draws % lie between 1% and 2%. Hence, we’re looking at April happening maybe once every 50 months.

I can even go a step further than this and if I look at 2011 as a whole, the draw % is 36.1% from 1,606 bets. If I was aiming for draws, to hit a 36% strike rate over so many bets would be the best system I’ve probably ever seen on the football.

April alone has made 200pts profit from backing the draw and 2011 has a profit of 400pts from backing the draw. This is from the same 1,606 bets. A 25% ROI from backing the draw.

I’ve been thinking long and hard over the last 2 days about whether this is something that I should have maybe been more aware of but I don’t think I could have been. Before this season, backing the draw in every game has lost 1,800pts over 12,000 games. This season, the draw has made a profit of 226pts from 2,800 games. Clearly, the first half of this season has followed the past and made a loss but for some reason, the second half of this season looks nothing like the past.

I keep going over and over it in my head and thinking to myself, should I have spotted this could happen? Could I have saved myself all of the losses from Christmas? Could I have saved others some money too?

I think at the end of the day, I keep coming back to the same thing. February was a once in a 20 month event and April is a once in a 50 month event. The chances of both these months occurring within 3 months? Well, I don’t want to guess as I’m not sure if they are both independent of each other (20*50 if they are) but whatever way, we’re looking at 500/1+ I suspect.

Based on the evidence of 14,838 bets to the end of April 2011, it was impossible for me to imagine that February and April could happen together. Yeah, I could imagine either month could happen in a season but the chances of both happening within 3 months…..I couldn’t have imagined that happening.

Now that it has happened, where does it leave me for the future…..Is this project dead? My systems now look hopeless after their first live season.

I’ve given it a lot of thought over the past 2 days and I think it would be fairly easy for me to pull the plug on this and walk away. For a start, I’ve never received a penny from anyone for anything I’ve done this season and therefore, I’ve got nothing to feel bad for from that respect. Yeah, I’m disappointed some people may have lost money or not won the amount they thought they’d win at Christmas based on results to then but then again, I’m in the same boat. Considering I’ve done all the work, I should feel slightly more aggrieved I suspect than anyone else who has been following the footie!

Even though the easy decision is to walk away from this possibly, I feel like I owe it to myself to give this another shot next season. If anything, I want to prove to myself and anyone who’s been with me on this journey that April is a once in a 50 season event when it comes to hitting so many draws!

Take away February or April from my results and this season would be hailed as the best first season by a football system/tipster for a long-time. Unfortunately, I can’t do that but no one can take away from me the fact that at Christmas time, it looked like I had built something that could achieve a 20%+ ROI on the footie across a massive sample of games. January and March backed this up further but for whatever reason, the draws have killed me in February and April.

So, I’ll be giving this another go next season as I have a lot to prove I think. I’ve got lots of ideas around how I can use the draw to my advantage and looking at the long-term results of DNB and DC, you can see lots of evidence that I can probably afford to cover the draw in some games to try to reduce the variance of my returns for when months like February or April occur.

I’ve also got some ideas about how I can tweak the two rating algorithms I’ve got at the moment (especially systems 21-23) and I’m also going to consider building a 3rd algorithm that will look to maximise returns from DNB or DC instead of maximising returns from traditionally H/A betting.

I feel really down about this season at the moment and I’m disappointed about how it has went from Christmas but I honestly believe that at Christmas, this is the closest I’ve ever come to seeing something that I thought could actually work long-term when it comes to gambling. You don’t fluke 4 months results over 1,000 games and even though the season has went down the tubes, my ratings and systems have still been profitable this season overall if I look at the full season. That has to count for something!

Anyway, that’s my thoughts at the moment. I’ll get round to my monthly review sometime this week. I’ll mention it on here when I post it on the season’s results section.

A quick word on the recent comments from Your New Blog Reader. I think you raise some very good points and as the week goes on, I’ll get around to answering your questions or commenting on the points you make. It’s great to have a new reader tbh as it can get quite lonely at times on here writing to myself and I’d love some more interaction on here with anyone who is reading the blog. I’m sure some people have questions or comments to make, so feel free to post them up and I’ll respond!

Another Unbelievable Day

I’ll split tonight into 2 posts. This post will purely cover the results from Saturday and then I’ll do another post with some thoughts. I’ve deliberately taken a wee break from the blog and TFA forum over the past few days to try to clear my head a little about the results in April. I’ve not even started to look at a monthly review for April but I know the headline figures and it won’t be a pretty read (or in my case, a pretty thing to write!)

Anyway, before I share some thoughts later, a quick rundown of Saturday. I said the other day my enthusiasm for the footie was at an all time low after the number of draws in April but Saturday took things to a new level.

There were 3 main games that accounted for the majority of the system bets and with 10 minutes to go, two teams were one goal up and one was drawing. I was out at the Dundee game on Saturday but as usual, I was keeping a close eye on Betfair Mobile and I could see both my teams were trading at around 1.2 and I could see that Sheff Wed were actually more favoured to score in their game against Bristol Rovers on Betfair. Could this be a day for 3 from 3?

It was getting more interesting at the Dundee game as Partick had pulled it back to 3-2 late on and therefore, Betfair Mobile was put away and I would check the scores when I got back to the car. As soon as the Dundee game finished, I checked my phone and noticed a text from a mate. This is it I thought….3 winners today…..

“You won’t believe this mate, but 3 draws and two of your teams lost late goals!”

I’m sure we’ve all had that sinking feeling when you hear you’re a team has lost a late goal but after the way 2011 has went for me on the footie, this was just another kick in the teeth. I’m not even going to try to pretend I know the number of games or points that teams have lost me over the past 12 weeks or so when they have been winning with 10 minutes to go but it has happened far too often.

I checked the scores when I got in and being honest, I just sort of stared at the screen in disbelief again. 13 different games on Saturday, 3 wins, 3 losses and 7 draws.

Obviously, the systems take these games and select the best games to appear on each system. This isn’t actually the worst weekend this season I think (I remember hitting 80% strike rate for a smaller number of games earlier this season) but the system bets on Saturday read 6 wins, 6 losses and 42 draws.

If you had not experienced a draw for a while, then hitting 42 draws out of 54 games wouldn’t exactly be uncommon but in a month where the draw % is sitting at 35%+, to hit another 42 draws from only 54 bets was unbelievable.

It was a 4pt loss from the 13 games but the systems turned this into a 33.6pt loss on the day from 54 bets.

DNB made a profit of 3pts on the day from the 54 bets which isn’t too surprising considering 42 bets were no bets!

The star of the show again this month was double chance with a remarkable 20pts profit on the day. 48 winners from 54 bets isn’t bad!

Well, the real star of the show was actually the draw now I think about it. An 87pt profit on the day with an ROI of 161%. :(

Another unbelievable day I’m afraid…….