Answers to Questions

As discussed the other day, there were a number of questions that people have asked me recently either via the blog or via email. I have pulled together answers to all these questions below. As usual, if there are any more questions, then please get in touch.

Once we get this weekend out of the way, I'll be taking a week or so off to recharge my batteries and then I'll be getting straight into the research for the next season. I've a lot of work to do this summer and I plan on throwing myself straight into it after my break.

I discuss this below but I've written off to the Secret Betting asking them if they'd allow me to post bets from my new algorithm in their forum next season before I share them on the blog. These bets will all be untried but I'm confident I can build something to work this summer. How they respond will determine exactly what happens with these bets next season but I need to try to get myself some publicity for here if I'm going to make a go of this on a more professional basis in future if I want to go down that road.

I hope the below answers most of the questions people have asked me.

1). Where can people sign up for next season?

At the moment, I’m still thinking about how things will look for next season. My initial thoughts are that I’ll continue to use the blog to post the bets which are proofed from this season and any analysis of the systems going forward.

I had a free email list this season where I sent the bets out each week. It is my intention to continue this next season and my only decision I need to make is whether I charge a small fee for doing this. Being honest, it doesn’t make a great difference if you receive the bets on the blog or via an email in terms of odds movement but of course, if I charged a small fee for an email distribution, it would give me greater incentive to run things more professionally and ties me into this project for another season. Aside from this, it also gives me some guaranteed return next season for 16 months of unpaid work so far!

In addition, some people would probably prefer to receive an email with a spreadsheet with the bets rather than pick them off the blog. Lastly, there was once or twice last season when I struggled to get time to post the bets on the blog in time for the games but I managed to send out my bets via email as I know how important it is to get all these bets proofed externally. An email list would ensure people get all the bets I hope.

As soon as I decide what I’m doing, I’ll let people know on here. I’ve had a few comments/emails saying that people would prefer to pay a small fee to receive the bets first rather than join a bun fight with lots of others to try to get best prices when I post on the blog. Hence, I can probably cater for both the free market and the subscription market and keep everyone happy!

I’m still waiting to hear back from the Secret Betting Club (SBC) but I’m hoping to proof the bets from my new rating algorithm on the SBC forum next season. If the SBC agree, I would post up these bets on their forum each week and then follow up the bets with a post on the blog. These bets are all untried of course (not built the rating algorithm yet!) and therefore, I wouldn’t dream of charging anyone for these bets. I would happily run a free subscription list for these bets too via email but I would like to give them to SBC members first via their forum.

Overall then, plans are still fairly fluid for next season. I feel like the above plan meets my aim of pleasing both sets of subscribers (free and paying) and also gives me access to a potential new set of subscribers via the SBC forum for the following season if they allow me to post my bets on there. I’ll update on here when plans are more solid.

2). Will numbers be capped?

I’m guessing this question was related to fact that I may charge people next season. As I say above, if I did charge a fee for next season, it would be to those people that wanted to pay to receive a spreadsheet with the bets before they are published on the blog. However, to be fair to people receiving the bets, I would cap the numbers if many people were interested in this option.

It’s really hard with something like this as I’ve no idea why anyone would pay (they’ll get the bets free later!) and therefore, it isn’t really a case of supply and demand. No idea about the sort of fee anyone would pay for this and I don’t want to put myself into competition with other tipster services next season as they’ll probably wipe the floor with me! So, in essence, I would cap numbers but no idea at what number and it would depend on the fee people would be willing to pay! I don't plan on trying to make a living from this. lol

3). When will bets be sent out and when will they appear on the blog?

This really depends on what happens with the SBC and my new rating algorithm but I’m thinking something along the lines of:

Thursday 7pm – (Paid or Free) Email list receives bets from ‘proofed systems’
Friday Noon – Bets from ‘proofed systems’ appear on blog
Friday 7pm – SBC forum receives bets from new rating algorithm
Late Friday – Free Email list will be sent the 'new' bets and 'new' bets posted on the blog

Of course, due to the fact this isn’t a professional tipping service, I could NEVER guarantee that these times and days are met. I’m often away from work on business which means I struggle to get things done and of course, I can’t put this project before my work or home life. However, my aim would be to keep things as consistent as I can each week.

If the SBC aren’t interested in me proofing my new bets exclusively on their forum, I’ll use the blog for these bets also and include them when I post the other bets.

4). Which bookies will prices be quoted from?

For this season, I have only used the bookies on oddschecker and Pinnacle as this is the bookmaker accounts that I have. I don’t have any accounts with bookmakers such as 10Bet, 12Bet, 188bet, 5 Dimes, Bet At Home, Betsafe, Centrebet, Dafabet, Extrabet, Gamebookers, Mybet, Nordicbet, SBO bet etc.

Going forward, I would continue to quote the best price I take from the bookies on oddschecker and Pinnacle only. Quite often, better is available at these other bookmakers that I don’t have accounts with but all my results include the price I take on my bets as it’s easier for my own bet recording!

I won’t pretend that everyone will get the odds on every bet no problem but in many circumstances, better odds will be available I think. Hence, in the long-run, it probably doesn’t make a big difference. In addition, many of the prices at kick-off are better than the odds I take myself, so I think as long as people act consistently; they’ll be OK and will get close to my returns.

5). Which systems will be live and what will they be called? What will the new systems be called and are they worth following?

I’ve thought long and hard about whether I change the names of these systems to something more attractive and easier to remember but I’ll stick with the system names as I’ve grown quite fond of them. Hence, the numbers will be staying!

Next season, I’ll have systems 6,7,8,21,22 and systems 6-21,6-22,7-21,7-22,8-21 and 8-22. 11 single bet systems in total that were proofed this season.

I’ll also have systems 31,32 and 33 which will be from my new rating algorithm for next season.

I’ll also have two other new systems called 6-21-31 and 7-22-32 which will show all the bets that appear on each algorithm. I’ve no idea what systems 31-33 look like yet, so I’m not exactly sure how these two systems will look either but I like to plan ahead.

Overall then, we’ll have the 11 systems from this season, plus 5 new systems for next season. 16 systems in total.

The 5 new systems will purely be trial systems for next season and should only be followed with minimum stakes at most!

This means that systems 9 and 23 will join the TFA scrapheap, along with systems 16-20 which were the multiple bet systems as they haven’t done as well as I hoped this season. I’ll explain more in my season review of why I’m dropping these systems but it is a fairly easy decision.

6). Is Double Chance a viable method to follow?

As I mentioned the other day on here, after a bit of thought and a bit of behind the scenes analysis, I don’t believe this is a viable method to follow going forward. Although the returns look OK and fairly steady, I don’t like the idea of suggesting some people back the win and the draw with my selections as it feels like I’m trying to cover my ass all the time which isn’t the intention. I’m happy for people to use Draw No Bet as a way to reduce the variance of the returns but Double Chance is playing on the fact that my ratings find a lot of draws and that’s the thing I want to avoid! Hence, there will be no more discussion or analysis involving Double Chance betting.

7). What betting bank does each system need? What are the drawdowns for each system?

This will be covered in the pre-season analysis after I’ve done more work on the ratings and systems this summer.

8). Can I graph the drawdowns for DNB v traditional HvA betting? Can I compare the volatility of DNB v HvA betting?

Yes and this will be covered in the summer after I’ve done more work on the ratings.