Monthly Review - October

The monthly review has been posted up on the appropriate section of the blog.

You can take a read of it here:

http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/p/201112-monthly-results.html

I've pulled together the below which is a fairly interesting read. You'll maybe need a magnifying glass to read it I suspect but hopefully it is readable.

For those that can't be bothered reading that, here's a summary of the proofed results so far on all my systems.

Weekend Results Round-Up

If there is one thing I’ve learnt over the past 22 months since I started out on this venture, it’s that day’s like yesterday don’t come along too often! Obviously, they are great when they do happen but so much of this game is about trying to keep the P&L in a decent state so that when the great day does come along, you aren’t just recovering losses. It has been very tough this season so far as I’ve said a few times on the blog but this month has turned out to be one of the best months in a while.

I’ll do a monthly post later (probably tomorrow) which will make interesting reading but here is a run-down of yesterday’s results.

Algorithm one had 16 bets, 6 winners, 2 draws and 8 losers. Doesn’t look great based on the strike rate but a profit of 4.50pts for H/A betting and a profit of 0.92pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm two had 15 bets, 6 winners, 2 draws and 7 losers. Again, may not look great based on the strike rate but a profit of 7.58pts for H/A betting and a profit of 3.5pts for DNB betting.

Thankfully, the systems narrowed these bets down very well and the results were exceptional on the established systems from last season. A profit of 62.23 pts for H/A betting and a profit of 34.99pts for DNB betting. There were 73 bets, 37 winners, 9 draws and 28 losers.

Algorithm three had 17 bets, 5 winners, 5 draws and 7 losers. A loss of 2.57pts for H/A betting and a loss of 1.63pts for DNB betting.

This doesn’t tell half of the story on the 3rd algorithm though. Accrington were 1-0 up at Crawley until late on and at odds of 9.50, it would have been a great winner to follow up QPR last week on this algorithm. In addition, Oldham managed to lose a 3-0 lead and only lost the 3rd goal in injury time. Lastly, Exeter at odds of 6.59 drew 4-4 with Sheff Utd after being 2-0 up early on. On any other day, it would have been a great day for the 3rd algorithm I suspect.

Overall, the new systems had 69 bets, 26 winners, 15 draws and 28 losers. A profit of 5.85pts for H/A betting and a loss of 0.22pts for DNB betting.

I’m quite grateful to see the balance of profitability shift from the new systems this season towards the established systems from last season. Most people I know who are following the systems this season are following the systems with proofed results behind them rather than unproven systems and until this weekend, the new systems had outperformed the systems from last season. The balance shifted this weekend though and hopefully this is the start of a good run for the established systems.

The next post should be for the midweek games. There is a full Championship card and one game in league two.

In the meantime, I’ll start work on the October monthly review. It should be an interesting read. :)

Midweek Results Catch Up

A quick catch up post from the midweek games before I get onto yesterday’s results.

The midweek was OK I guess although I could have done with another winner or two as there were a few too many draws.

Algorithm one had 11 bets and found 5 winners, 3 draws and 3 losers. It was a profit of 3.01pts for H/A betting and a profit of 2.10pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm two had 9 bets, 3 winners, 3 draws and 3 losers. It was a loss of 0.39pts for H/A betting and a profit of 0.16pts for DNB betting.

Overall, the established systems had 59 bets with 20 winners, 20 draws and 19 losers. A profit of 1.42pts for H/A betting and a profit of 4.15pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm three had 11 bets but only found 3 winners, 3 draws and 5 losers. A loss of 2.39pts for H/A betting and a loss of 1.84pts for DNB betting.

The new systems made an overall loss of 2.78pts for H/A betting and a loss of 4.96pts for DNB betting. From the 45 bets, there were 14 winners, 10 draws and 21 losers.

Not a disaster of a midweek but not the best either. The first two algorithms hit a couple too many draws for my liking which pulled down the results a little. The third algorithm hit too many losers, simple as that!

Thankfully, yesterday was much better. :)

Weekend Bets

I've not had time to write the midweek review. Nor have I had time to write anything about the systems yet for the anonymous poster who must be getting pretty impatient by now. I'll hopefully get some time next week to do both.

Here's the weekend bets in the meantime. Could do with an Arsenal win in the big game today.

The Football Analyst Bets for 29th October

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/10/2011 Championship Barnsley v Bristol City Bristol City 3.82 2.76
29/10/2011 Championship Derby v Portsmouth Portsmouth 3.20 2.27
29/10/2011 Championship Millwall v Ipswich Millwall 2.25 1.60
29/10/2011 Championship Southampton v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4.33 3.18
29/10/2011 Championship Watford v Peterborough Watford 2.63 1.92
29/10/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.41
29/10/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Crewe Aldershot 2.10 1.52
29/10/2011 League 2 Barnet v Burton Barnet 2.89 2.08
29/10/2011 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Dagenham Dagenham 4.20 3.07
29/10/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Gillingham Gillingham 3.00 2.18
29/10/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Wimbledon Wimbledon 4.31 3.21
29/10/2011 Premiership Chelsea v Arsenal Arsenal 6.20 4.68
29/10/2011 Premiership Sunderland v Aston Villa Sunderland 2.25 1.59
29/10/2011 SPL Hearts v Kilmarnock Hearts 1.80 1.32
29/10/2011 SPL Inverness v Motherwell Inverness 3.00 2.13
29/10/2011 SPL St Johnstone v St Mirren St Mirren 3.50 2.44

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/10/2011 Championship Barnsley v Bristol City Bristol City 3.82 2.76
29/10/2011 Championship Derby v Portsmouth Portsmouth 3.20 2.27
29/10/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Crewe Aldershot 2.10 1.52
29/10/2011 Premiership Sunderland v Aston Villa Sunderland 2.25 1.59
29/10/2011 Premiership Chelsea v Arsenal Arsenal 6.20 4.68
29/10/2011 SPL St Johnstone v St Mirren St Mirren 3.50 2.44

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/10/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Crewe Aldershot 2.10 1.52
29/10/2011 Premiership Sunderland v Aston Villa Sunderland 2.25 1.59

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/10/2011 Championship Barnsley v Bristol City Bristol City 3.82 2.76
29/10/2011 Championship Derby v Portsmouth Portsmouth 3.20 2.27
29/10/2011 Championship Southampton v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4.33 3.18
29/10/2011 Championship Watford v Peterborough Watford 2.63 1.92
29/10/2011 Championship West Ham v Leicester Leicester 4.33 3.14
29/10/2011 League 1 Preston v Bournemouth Bournemouth 4.33 3.19
29/10/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.41
29/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Exeter Exeter 6.59 5.07
29/10/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Crewe Aldershot 2.10 1.52
29/10/2011 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Dagenham Dagenham 4.20 3.07
29/10/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Gillingham Gillingham 3.00 2.18
29/10/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Wimbledon Wimbledon 4.31 3.21
29/10/2011 Premiership Chelsea v Arsenal Arsenal 6.20 4.68
29/10/2011 Premiership Everton v Man Utd Everton 5.00 3.67
29/10/2011 SPL St Johnstone v St Mirren St Mirren 3.50 2.44

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/10/2011 Championship Barnsley v Bristol City Bristol City 3.82 2.76
29/10/2011 Championship Derby v Portsmouth Portsmouth 3.20 2.27
29/10/2011 Championship Southampton v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4.33 3.18
29/10/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Crewe Aldershot 2.10 1.52
29/10/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Wimbledon Wimbledon 4.31 3.21
29/10/2011 Premiership Chelsea v Arsenal Arsenal 6.20 4.68

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/10/2011 Championship Barnsley v Bristol City Bristol City 3.82 2.76
29/10/2011 Championship Derby v Portsmouth Portsmouth 3.20 2.27
29/10/2011 Championship Southampton v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4.33 3.18
29/10/2011 Championship Watford v Peterborough Watford 2.63 1.92
29/10/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.41
29/10/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Crewe Aldershot 2.10 1.52
29/10/2011 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Dagenham Dagenham 4.20 3.07
29/10/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Gillingham Gillingham 3.00 2.18
29/10/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Wimbledon Wimbledon 4.31 3.21
29/10/2011 Premiership Chelsea v Arsenal Arsenal 6.20 4.68
29/10/2011 SPL St Johnstone v St Mirren St Mirren 3.50 2.44

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/10/2011 Championship Barnsley v Bristol City Bristol City 3.82 2.76
29/10/2011 Championship Derby v Portsmouth Portsmouth 3.20 2.27
29/10/2011 Championship Southampton v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4.33 3.18
29/10/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Crewe Aldershot 2.10 1.52
29/10/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Wimbledon Wimbledon 4.31 3.21
29/10/2011 Premiership Chelsea v Arsenal Arsenal 6.20 4.68

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/10/2011 Championship Barnsley v Bristol City Bristol City 3.82 2.76
29/10/2011 Championship Derby v Portsmouth Portsmouth 3.20 2.27
29/10/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Crewe Aldershot 2.10 1.52
29/10/2011 Premiership Chelsea v Arsenal Arsenal 6.20 4.68
29/10/2011 SPL St Johnstone v St Mirren St Mirren 3.50 2.44

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/10/2011 Championship Barnsley v Bristol City Bristol City 3.82 2.76
29/10/2011 Championship Derby v Portsmouth Portsmouth 3.20 2.27
29/10/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Crewe Aldershot 2.10 1.52
29/10/2011 Premiership Chelsea v Arsenal Arsenal 6.20 4.68

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/10/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Crewe Aldershot 2.10 1.52

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/10/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Crewe Aldershot 2.10 1.52

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/10/2011 Championship Barnsley v Bristol City Bristol City 3.82 2.76
29/10/2011 Championship Birmingham v Brighton Birmingham 2.10 1.52
29/10/2011 Championship Burnley v Blackpool Burnley 2.38 1.73
29/10/2011 Championship Derby v Portsmouth Portsmouth 3.20 2.27
29/10/2011 Championship Southampton v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4.33 3.18
29/10/2011 Championship Watford v Peterborough Watford 2.63 1.92
29/10/2011 Championship West Ham v Leicester Leicester 4.33 3.14
29/10/2011 League 1 Carlisle v Oldham Oldham 3.83 2.75
29/10/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Charlton Hartlepool 3.80 2.72
29/10/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.41
29/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Exeter Exeter 6.59 5.07
29/10/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Crewe Aldershot 2.10 1.52
29/10/2011 League 2 Crawley v Accrington Accrington 9.50 7.60
29/10/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Gillingham Gillingham 3.00 2.18
29/10/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Wimbledon Wimbledon 4.31 3.21
29/10/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Rangers Aberdeen 7.50 5.77
29/10/2011 SPL St Johnstone v St Mirren St Mirren 3.50 2.44

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/10/2011 Championship Barnsley v Bristol City Bristol City 3.82 2.76
29/10/2011 Championship Derby v Portsmouth Portsmouth 3.20 2.27
29/10/2011 Championship Southampton v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4.33 3.18
29/10/2011 Championship Watford v Peterborough Watford 2.63 1.92
29/10/2011 Championship West Ham v Leicester Leicester 4.33 3.14
29/10/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.41
29/10/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Crewe Aldershot 2.10 1.52
29/10/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Wimbledon Wimbledon 4.31 3.21
29/10/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Rangers Aberdeen 7.50 5.77
29/10/2011 SPL St Johnstone v St Mirren St Mirren 3.50 2.44

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/10/2011 Championship Barnsley v Bristol City Bristol City 3.82 2.76
29/10/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Crewe Aldershot 2.10 1.52
29/10/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Wimbledon Wimbledon 4.31 3.21

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/10/2011 Championship Barnsley v Bristol City Bristol City 3.82 2.76
29/10/2011 Championship Derby v Portsmouth Portsmouth 3.20 2.27
29/10/2011 Championship Southampton v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4.33 3.18
29/10/2011 Championship Watford v Peterborough Watford 2.63 1.92
29/10/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.41
29/10/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Crewe Aldershot 2.10 1.52
29/10/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Wimbledon Wimbledon 4.31 3.21
29/10/2011 SPL St Johnstone v St Mirren St Mirren 3.50 2.44

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/10/2011 Championship Barnsley v Bristol City Bristol City 3.82 2.76
29/10/2011 Championship Derby v Portsmouth Portsmouth 3.20 2.27
29/10/2011 Championship Southampton v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4.33 3.18
29/10/2011 Championship Watford v Peterborough Watford 2.63 1.92
29/10/2011 Championship West Ham v Leicester Leicester 4.33 3.14
29/10/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.41
29/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Exeter Exeter 6.59 5.07
29/10/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Crewe Aldershot 2.10 1.52
29/10/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Gillingham Gillingham 3.00 2.18
29/10/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Wimbledon Wimbledon 4.31 3.21
29/10/2011 SPL St Johnstone v St Mirren St Mirren 3.50 2.44

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/10/2011 Championship Barnsley v Bristol City Bristol City 3.82 2.76
29/10/2011 Championship Derby v Portsmouth Portsmouth 3.20 2.27
29/10/2011 Championship Southampton v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 4.33 3.18
29/10/2011 Championship Watford v Peterborough Watford 2.63 1.92
29/10/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.41
29/10/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Crewe Aldershot 2.10 1.52
29/10/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Gillingham Gillingham 3.00 2.18
29/10/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Wimbledon Wimbledon 4.31 3.21
29/10/2011 SPL St Johnstone v St Mirren St Mirren 3.50 2.44

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/10/2011 Championship Derby v Portsmouth Portsmouth 3.20 2.27
29/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Exeter Exeter 6.59 5.07
29/10/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Crewe Aldershot 2.10 1.52
29/10/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Wimbledon Wimbledon 4.31 3.21
29/10/2011 Premiership Everton v Man Utd Everton 5.00 3.67

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/10/2011 Championship Derby v Portsmouth Portsmouth 3.20 2.27
29/10/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Crewe Aldershot 2.10 1.52
29/10/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Wimbledon Wimbledon 4.31 3.21

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
29/10/2011 Championship Derby v Portsmouth Portsmouth 3.20 2.27
29/10/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Crewe Aldershot 2.10 1.52
29/10/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Wimbledon Wimbledon 4.31 3.21

Midweek Bets

A busier than usual midweek this week, so I can really do with a couple of good winners tonight. Tranmere and MK Dons are the two biggest bets for me and hopefully they can do the business. At their odds, as long as one of these two wins, it shouldn't be a disaster tonight.

The Football Analyst Bets for 25th October

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/10/2011 League 1 Brentford v Stevenage Stevenage 3.30 2.40
25/10/2011 League 1 Carlisle v Sheff Wed Carlisle 2.70 1.95
25/10/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Tranmere Tranmere 3.10 2.19
25/10/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Chesterfield Rochdale 2.10 1.51
25/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v MK Dons MK Dons 3.60 2.59
25/10/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 2.90 2.06
25/10/2011 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Port Vale Port Vale 3.00 2.15
25/10/2011 League 2 Cheltenham v Crewe Cheltenham 1.83 1.35
25/10/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Rotherham Rotherham 3.40 2.48
25/10/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 5.00 3.67
25/10/2011 League 2 Swindon v Gillingham Swindon 1.91 1.41

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/10/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Tranmere Tranmere 3.10 2.19
25/10/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Chesterfield Rochdale 2.10 1.51
25/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v MK Dons MK Dons 3.60 2.59
25/10/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 2.90 2.06
25/10/2011 League 2 Cheltenham v Crewe Cheltenham 1.83 1.35
25/10/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 5.00 3.67

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/10/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Tranmere Tranmere 3.10 2.19
25/10/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Chesterfield Rochdale 2.10 1.51
25/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v MK Dons MK Dons 3.60 2.59

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/10/2011 League 1 Brentford v Stevenage Stevenage 3.30 2.40
25/10/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Tranmere Tranmere 3.10 2.19
25/10/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Chesterfield Rochdale 2.10 1.51
25/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v MK Dons MK Dons 3.60 2.59
25/10/2011 League 1 Walsall v Exeter Wallsall 2.20 1.56
25/10/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 2.90 2.06
25/10/2011 League 2 Macclesfield v Bradford Macclesfield 2.21 1.58
25/10/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Rotherham Rotherham 3.40 2.48
25/10/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 5.00 3.67

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/10/2011 League 1 Brentford v Stevenage Stevenage 3.30 2.40
25/10/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Tranmere Tranmere 3.10 2.19
25/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v MK Dons MK Dons 3.60 2.59
25/10/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 2.90 2.06
25/10/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Rotherham Rotherham 3.40 2.48

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/10/2011 League 1 Brentford v Stevenage Stevenage 3.30 2.40
25/10/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Tranmere Tranmere 3.10 2.19
25/10/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Chesterfield Rochdale 2.10 1.51
25/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v MK Dons MK Dons 3.60 2.59
25/10/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 2.90 2.06
25/10/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Rotherham Rotherham 3.40 2.48
25/10/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 5.00 3.67

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/10/2011 League 1 Brentford v Stevenage Stevenage 3.30 2.40
25/10/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Tranmere Tranmere 3.10 2.19
25/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v MK Dons MK Dons 3.60 2.59
25/10/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 2.90 2.06
25/10/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Rotherham Rotherham 3.40 2.48

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/10/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Tranmere Tranmere 3.10 2.19
25/10/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Chesterfield Rochdale 2.10 1.51
25/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v MK Dons MK Dons 3.60 2.59
25/10/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 2.90 2.06
25/10/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 5.00 3.67

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/10/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Tranmere Tranmere 3.10 2.19
25/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v MK Dons MK Dons 3.60 2.59
25/10/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 2.90 2.06

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/10/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Tranmere Tranmere 3.10 2.19
25/10/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Chesterfield Rochdale 2.10 1.51
25/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v MK Dons MK Dons 3.60 2.59

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/10/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Tranmere Tranmere 3.10 2.19
25/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v MK Dons MK Dons 3.60 2.59

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/10/2011 League 1 Brentford v Stevenage Stevenage 3.30 2.40
25/10/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Tranmere Tranmere 3.10 2.19
25/10/2011 League 1 Preston v Oldham Oldham 4.50 3.29
25/10/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Chesterfield Rochdale 2.10 1.51
25/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v MK Dons MK Dons 3.60 2.59
25/10/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Charlton Wycombe 4.57 3.29
25/10/2011 League 2 Barnet v Southend Barnet 3.75 2.73
25/10/2011 League 2 Crawley v Dagenham Dagenham 9.00 7.20
25/10/2011 League 2 Macclesfield v Bradford Macclesfield 2.21 1.58
25/10/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Rotherham Rotherham 3.40 2.48
25/10/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 5.00 3.67

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/10/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Tranmere Tranmere 3.10 2.19
25/10/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Chesterfield Rochdale 2.10 1.51
25/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v MK Dons MK Dons 3.60 2.59
25/10/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 5.00 3.67

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/10/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Tranmere Tranmere 3.10 2.19
25/10/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Chesterfield Rochdale 2.10 1.51
25/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v MK Dons MK Dons 3.60 2.59
25/10/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 5.00 3.67

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/10/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Tranmere Tranmere 3.10 2.19
25/10/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Chesterfield Rochdale 2.10 1.51
25/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v MK Dons MK Dons 3.60 2.59
25/10/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 5.00 3.67

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/10/2011 League 1 Brentford v Stevenage Stevenage 3.30 2.40
25/10/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Tranmere Tranmere 3.10 2.19
25/10/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Chesterfield Rochdale 2.10 1.51
25/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v MK Dons MK Dons 3.60 2.59
25/10/2011 League 2 Macclesfield v Bradford Macclesfield 2.21 1.58
25/10/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Rotherham Rotherham 3.40 2.48
25/10/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 5.00 3.67

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/10/2011 League 1 Brentford v Stevenage Stevenage 3.30 2.40
25/10/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Tranmere Tranmere 3.10 2.19
25/10/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Chesterfield Rochdale 2.10 1.51
25/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v MK Dons MK Dons 3.60 2.59
25/10/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Rotherham Rotherham 3.40 2.48
25/10/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 5.00 3.67

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/10/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Tranmere Tranmere 3.10 2.19
25/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v MK Dons MK Dons 3.60 2.59
25/10/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 5.00 3.67

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/10/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Tranmere Tranmere 3.10 2.19
25/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v MK Dons MK Dons 3.60 2.59
25/10/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 5.00 3.67

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/10/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Tranmere Tranmere 3.10 2.19
25/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v MK Dons MK Dons 3.60 2.59
25/10/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Accrington Accrington 5.00 3.67

Another setback.....but not a disaster!

Firstly, apologies to the anonymous poster who's waiting on a summary of the systems. Didn't get near my laptop all weekend once my bets were placed on Friday night and I only updated my results this morning. I'll try to get this post done during the week at some point hopefully.

A pretty tricky weekend for my ratings with a fairly low strike rate overall leading to a fairly large loss. There were some great winners in amongst the systems this weekend and for that reason, I have to say I'm very disappointed with how it turned out.

I don't often quote these stats (no need really as it doesn't matter) but this weekend, there were bets thrown up in 33 games. There was a profit of 11.5pts for H/A betting and a profit of 9.1pts for DNB betting. When you consider the losses I'm about to show below, it does make me cringe! Even if I ignore the fact that QPR is one of the games, then my ratings still made a profit this weekend from the 32 games remaining. Disappointing it turned into such a large loss this weekend on some systems.

Algorithm one had 25 bets but only found 6 winners. There were 8 draws in there but a massive 11 losers. A loss of 6.82pts for H/A betting and a loss of 3.86pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm two had 19 bets but again, only found 5 winners which is poor. There were 6 draws but 8 losers. A loss of 3.34pts for H/A betting and a loss of 1.68pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm three was the star of the show this weekend although I cringe looking at the results. 22 bets but only 6 winners. However, the winners were 3.68, 4.08, 5.41, 3.2, 10.18 and 3.64. The system went 0 from 6 at bets less than 2/1 which is shameful! It also found 6 draws but an enormous 10 losers.

Overall, a profit of 8.19pts for H/A betting and a profit of 6.75pts for DNB betting on algorithm three.

All in all, a poor weekend with a very low strike rate of winners. The 175 games yielded only 37 winners (21%) but a substantial 59 (34%) draws. There were then 79 losses (45%).

I could point to the high draw % as an issue this weekend but being honest, that's papering over the cracks a little. It wasn't the high priced away teams drawing in the main, it was the short priced home teams who should be winning that were drawing!

I could look at Inverness who were 1-0 up and let in an 86th min equaliser. If they had held on, it would have been close to a break-even weekend overall which would have been a good result considering the low strike rate but it wasn't to be.

This weekend was a setback but it wasn't a disaster. The established systems are sitting with a 10% ROI for this month (not ignoring that they lost 31% last month!) and the new systems are sitting with an ROI of 17% this month (not ignoring they lost 27% last month!). Hence, a setback but not a disaster.

There are a good few bets for tomorrow night from League One and League Two and then we'll have a big weekend card (no BSq Prem games) to get our teeth into before the month ends. Hence, whether this month ends up being profitable or not will depend on how the next week goes. Hopefully the systems have a good midweek followed by a good weekend but as always, whatever will be, will be!

I'll post up the midweek bets tomorrow morning.

Weekend Bets

A really busy weekend again this weekend. I feel like the systems are pushing their luck this month. If this was someone picking the games, I'm sure they'd be trying to keep hold of the profits in the bag this month but the systems seemed determined to either have a record breaking month or lose all the profits that they've won this month!

Hopefully it's another OK weekend but I'll just be happy as long as it isn't a disaster. There seems a fair spread of games between Homes and Aways and not too many very strong bets, so this risk is pretty well spread. However, the average odds are skewed a bit by a number of big priced teams this weekend. Hopefully one of these can win as so far this season, none have won!

Fingers crossed.

The Football Analyst Bets for 21st-23rd October

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
22/10/2011 Bsq Prem Fleetwood v Bath Bath 8.50 6.71
22/10/2011 Bsq Prem Kettering v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 2.88 2.05
22/10/2011 Bsq Prem Southport v Tamworth Tamworth 3.75 2.73
22/10/2011 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Newport Wrexham 1.83 1.38
22/10/2011 Championship Blackpool v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.68 2.66
23/10/2011 Championship Bristol City v Birmingham Bristol City 2.88 2.07
22/10/2011 Championship Cardiff v Barnsley Cardiff 1.73 1.27
22/10/2011 Championship Hull v Watford Watford 5.05 3.69
22/10/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Bury Bury 3.80 2.71
22/10/2011 League 1 Charlton v Carlisle Carlisle 4.50 3.33
22/10/2011 League 1 Exeter v Rochdale Rochdale 2.75 1.95
22/10/2011 League 1 MK Dons v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 4.33 3.18
22/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Wed v Colchester Colchester 4.50 3.38
22/10/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Yeovil Yeovil 5.09 3.80
22/10/2011 League 2 Bradford v Northampton Northampton 3.34 2.40
22/10/2011 League 2 Crewe v Macclesfield Macclesfield 3.20 2.32
22/10/2011 League 2 Hereford v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.09
23/10/2011 Premiership Arsenal v Stoke Arsenal 1.57 1.21
22/10/2011 Premiership Aston Villa v West Brom West Brom 4.20 2.96
22/10/2011 Premiership Bolton v Sunderland Bolton 2.30 1.61
23/10/2011 Premiership Man Utd v Man City Man Utd 2.10 1.50
22/10/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Wigan Wigan 7.00 5.31
22/10/2011 Premiership Wolves v Swansea Wolves 2.10 1.50
22/10/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v St Johnstone Dundee Utd 2.20 1.57
22/10/2011 SPL Inverness v Dunfermline Inverness 1.91 1.40

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
22/10/2011 Bsq Prem Southport v Tamworth Tamworth 3.75 2.73
22/10/2011 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Newport Wrexham 1.83 1.38
22/10/2011 Championship Cardiff v Barnsley Cardiff 1.73 1.27
22/10/2011 League 1 Exeter v Rochdale Rochdale 2.75 1.95
22/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Wed v Colchester Colchester 4.50 3.38
22/10/2011 League 2 Crewe v Macclesfield Macclesfield 3.20 2.32
22/10/2011 League 2 Hereford v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.09
22/10/2011 Premiership Aston Villa v West Brom West Brom 4.20 2.96
23/10/2011 Premiership Man Utd v Man City Man Utd 2.10 1.50
22/10/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Wigan Wigan 7.00 5.31
22/10/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v St Johnstone Dundee Utd 2.20 1.57
22/10/2011 SPL Inverness v Dunfermline Inverness 1.91 1.40

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
22/10/2011 League 1 Exeter v Rochdale Rochdale 2.75 1.95
22/10/2011 Premiership Aston Villa v West Brom West Brom 4.20 2.96
22/10/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v St Johnstone Dundee Utd 2.20 1.57
22/10/2011 SPL Inverness v Dunfermline Inverness 1.91 1.40

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
22/10/2011 Bsq Prem Fleetwood v Bath Bath 8.50 6.71
22/10/2011 Bsq Prem Kettering v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 2.88 2.05
22/10/2011 Bsq Prem Southport v Tamworth Tamworth 3.75 2.73
22/10/2011 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Newport Wrexham 1.83 1.38
22/10/2011 Championship Blackpool v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.68 2.66
22/10/2011 League 1 Charlton v Carlisle Carlisle 4.50 3.33
22/10/2011 League 1 Exeter v Rochdale Rochdale 2.75 1.95
22/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Wed v Colchester Colchester 4.50 3.38
22/10/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Yeovil Yeovil 5.09 3.80
21/10/2011 League 2 Accrington v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.01 2.16
22/10/2011 League 2 Bradford v Northampton Northampton 3.34 2.40
22/10/2011 League 2 Crewe v Macclesfield Macclesfield 3.20 2.32
23/10/2011 Premiership Arsenal v Stoke Arsenal 1.57 1.21
22/10/2011 Premiership Aston Villa v West Brom West Brom 4.20 2.96
22/10/2011 Premiership Bolton v Sunderland Bolton 2.30 1.61
23/10/2011 Premiership Man Utd v Man City Man Utd 2.10 1.50
22/10/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Wigan Wigan 7.00 5.31
22/10/2011 Premiership Wolves v Swansea Wolves 2.10 1.50
22/10/2011 SPL Inverness v Dunfermline Inverness 1.91 1.40

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
22/10/2011 Bsq Prem Kettering v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 2.88 2.05
22/10/2011 Championship Blackpool v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.68 2.66
22/10/2011 League 1 Exeter v Rochdale Rochdale 2.75 1.95
22/10/2011 SPL Inverness v Dunfermline Inverness 1.91 1.40

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
22/10/2011 Bsq Prem Fleetwood v Bath Bath 8.50 6.71
22/10/2011 Bsq Prem Kettering v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 2.88 2.05
22/10/2011 Bsq Prem Southport v Tamworth Tamworth 3.75 2.73
22/10/2011 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Newport Wrexham 1.83 1.38
22/10/2011 Championship Blackpool v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.68 2.66
22/10/2011 League 1 Charlton v Carlisle Carlisle 4.50 3.33
22/10/2011 League 1 Exeter v Rochdale Rochdale 2.75 1.95
22/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Wed v Colchester Colchester 4.50 3.38
22/10/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Yeovil Yeovil 5.09 3.80
22/10/2011 League 2 Bradford v Northampton Northampton 3.34 2.40
22/10/2011 League 2 Crewe v Macclesfield Macclesfield 3.20 2.32
23/10/2011 Premiership Arsenal v Stoke Arsenal 1.57 1.21
22/10/2011 Premiership Aston Villa v West Brom West Brom 4.20 2.96
22/10/2011 Premiership Bolton v Sunderland Bolton 2.30 1.61
23/10/2011 Premiership Man Utd v Man City Man Utd 2.10 1.50
22/10/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Wigan Wigan 7.00 5.31
22/10/2011 Premiership Wolves v Swansea Wolves 2.10 1.50
22/10/2011 SPL Inverness v Dunfermline Inverness 1.91 1.40

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
22/10/2011 Bsq Prem Kettering v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 2.88 2.05
22/10/2011 Championship Blackpool v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.68 2.66
22/10/2011 League 1 Exeter v Rochdale Rochdale 2.75 1.95
22/10/2011 SPL Inverness v Dunfermline Inverness 1.91 1.40

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
22/10/2011 Bsq Prem Southport v Tamworth Tamworth 3.75 2.73
22/10/2011 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Newport Wrexham 1.83 1.38
22/10/2011 League 1 Exeter v Rochdale Rochdale 2.75 1.95
22/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Wed v Colchester Colchester 4.50 3.38
22/10/2011 League 2 Crewe v Macclesfield Macclesfield 3.20 2.32
22/10/2011 Premiership Aston Villa v West Brom West Brom 4.20 2.96
23/10/2011 Premiership Man Utd v Man City Man Utd 2.10 1.50
22/10/2011 Premiership Newcastle v Wigan Wigan 7.00 5.31
22/10/2011 SPL Inverness v Dunfermline Inverness 1.91 1.40

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
22/10/2011 League 1 Exeter v Rochdale Rochdale 2.75 1.95
22/10/2011 SPL Inverness v Dunfermline Inverness 1.91 1.40

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
22/10/2011 League 1 Exeter v Rochdale Rochdale 2.75 1.95
22/10/2011 Premiership Aston Villa v West Brom West Brom 4.20 2.96
22/10/2011 SPL Inverness v Dunfermline Inverness 1.91 1.40

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
22/10/2011 League 1 Exeter v Rochdale Rochdale 2.75 1.95
22/10/2011 SPL Inverness v Dunfermline Inverness 1.91 1.40

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/10/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Lincoln Lincoln 5.00 3.73
22/10/2011 Bsq Prem Fleetwood v Bath Bath 8.50 6.71
22/10/2011 Bsq Prem Kettering v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 2.88 2.05
22/10/2011 Bsq Prem Southport v Tamworth Tamworth 3.75 2.73
22/10/2011 Championship Blackpool v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.68 2.66
22/10/2011 Championship Hull v Watford Watford 5.05 3.69
22/10/2011 Championship Ipswich v Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 4.08 2.96
22/10/2011 Championship Leicester v Millwall Millwall 5.41 4.05
22/10/2011 League 1 Charlton v Carlisle Carlisle 4.50 3.33
22/10/2011 League 1 Exeter v Rochdale Rochdale 2.75 1.95
22/10/2011 League 1 MK Dons v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 4.33 3.18
22/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Wed v Colchester Colchester 4.50 3.38
22/10/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Yeovil Yeovil 5.09 3.80
22/10/2011 League 2 Bradford v Northampton Northampton 3.34 2.40
22/10/2011 League 2 Crewe v Macclesfield Macclesfield 3.20 2.32
22/10/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 3.00 2.18
22/10/2011 League 2 Southend v Torquay Torquay 5.00 3.68
22/10/2011 Premiership Bolton v Sunderland Bolton 2.30 1.61
23/10/2011 Premiership Man Utd v Man City Man Utd 2.10 1.50
23/10/2011 Premiership QPR v Chelsea QPR 10.18 8.18
22/10/2011 SPL Inverness v Dunfermline Inverness 1.91 1.40
22/10/2011 SPL St Mirren v Hibernian Hibernian 3.64 2.58

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
22/10/2011 League 1 Charlton v Carlisle Carlisle 4.50 3.33
22/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Wed v Colchester Colchester 4.50 3.38
22/10/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Yeovil Yeovil 5.09 3.80
22/10/2011 League 2 Crewe v Macclesfield Macclesfield 3.20 2.32
22/10/2011 Premiership Bolton v Sunderland Bolton 2.30 1.61
22/10/2011 SPL Inverness v Dunfermline Inverness 1.91 1.40

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
22/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Wed v Colchester Colchester 4.50 3.38
22/10/2011 League 2 Crewe v Macclesfield Macclesfield 3.20 2.32

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
22/10/2011 League 1 Charlton v Carlisle Carlisle 4.50 3.33
22/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Wed v Colchester Colchester 4.50 3.38
22/10/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Yeovil Yeovil 5.09 3.80
22/10/2011 League 2 Crewe v Macclesfield Macclesfield 3.20 2.32
22/10/2011 Premiership Bolton v Sunderland Bolton 2.30 1.61
22/10/2011 SPL Inverness v Dunfermline Inverness 1.91 1.40

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
22/10/2011 Bsq Prem Fleetwood v Bath Bath 8.50 6.71
22/10/2011 Bsq Prem Kettering v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 2.88 2.05
22/10/2011 Bsq Prem Southport v Tamworth Tamworth 3.75 2.73
22/10/2011 Championship Blackpool v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.68 2.66
22/10/2011 League 1 Charlton v Carlisle Carlisle 4.50 3.33
22/10/2011 League 1 Exeter v Rochdale Rochdale 2.75 1.95
22/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Wed v Colchester Colchester 4.50 3.38
22/10/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Yeovil Yeovil 5.09 3.80
22/10/2011 League 2 Bradford v Northampton Northampton 3.34 2.40
22/10/2011 League 2 Crewe v Macclesfield Macclesfield 3.20 2.32
22/10/2011 Premiership Bolton v Sunderland Bolton 2.30 1.61
23/10/2011 Premiership Man Utd v Man City Man Utd 2.10 1.50
22/10/2011 SPL Inverness v Dunfermline Inverness 1.91 1.40

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
22/10/2011 Bsq Prem Fleetwood v Bath Bath 8.50 6.71
22/10/2011 Bsq Prem Kettering v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 2.88 2.05
22/10/2011 Bsq Prem Southport v Tamworth Tamworth 3.75 2.73
22/10/2011 Championship Blackpool v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.68 2.66
22/10/2011 League 1 Charlton v Carlisle Carlisle 4.50 3.33
22/10/2011 League 1 Exeter v Rochdale Rochdale 2.75 1.95
22/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Wed v Colchester Colchester 4.50 3.38
22/10/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Yeovil Yeovil 5.09 3.80
22/10/2011 League 2 Bradford v Northampton Northampton 3.34 2.40
22/10/2011 League 2 Crewe v Macclesfield Macclesfield 3.20 2.32
22/10/2011 Premiership Bolton v Sunderland Bolton 2.30 1.61
23/10/2011 Premiership Man Utd v Man City Man Utd 2.10 1.50
22/10/2011 SPL Inverness v Dunfermline Inverness 1.91 1.40

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
22/10/2011 League 1 Charlton v Carlisle Carlisle 4.50 3.33
22/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Wed v Colchester Colchester 4.50 3.38
22/10/2011 Premiership Wolves v Swansea Wolves 2.10 1.50
22/10/2011 SPL Inverness v Dunfermline Inverness 1.91 1.40

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
22/10/2011 League 1 Charlton v Carlisle Carlisle 4.50 3.33
22/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Wed v Colchester Colchester 4.50 3.38
22/10/2011 Premiership Wolves v Swansea Wolves 2.10 1.50
22/10/2011 SPL Inverness v Dunfermline Inverness 1.91 1.40

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
22/10/2011 League 1 Charlton v Carlisle Carlisle 4.50 3.33
22/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Wed v Colchester Colchester 4.50 3.38
22/10/2011 SPL Inverness v Dunfermline Inverness 1.91 1.40

Midweek Update

A quick post tonight to bring the midweek results up to date.

There were two key games in midweek and although Newport won, Millwall only managed a 1-1 draw at home to Brighton. I can’t moan too much as Brighton missed a first half penalty and Newport beat 9 men, so I’ll take the results I think and move on!

Algorithm one had 6 bets, 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 losers. A profit of 0.48pts for H/A betting and a loss of -0.25pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm two had 1 win, 1 draw and 4 losers. A loss of 4pts for H/A betting and a loss of 3.53pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm three did best this midweek with 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 9 games. A profit of 1.98pts for H/A betting and a profit of 1.05pts for DNB betting.

Overall, the established systems made a loss of 3.52pts for H/A betting and a loss of 2.54pts for DNB betting.

The new systems made a loss of 1.52pts for H/A betting and a profit of 0.13pts for DNB betting.

I’ll be posting the bets for this weekend on Saturday morning I suspect as I’m going to be late this week with the bets due to a lack of time.

I had a nice comment from an anonymous poster yesterday asking for some information about the systems. I’m sure there are new readers of the blog all the time who don’t quite understand what the systems mean, so I don’t mind the odd post for new readers to pick up what’s going on.

I’ll try to do this at the weekend at some point. It might help a few other new readers too.

Midweek Bets

No time today. Here's the bets for tonight/tomorrow.

The Football Analyst Bets for 18th/19th October

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Newport v Kettering Newport 2.00 1.47
18/10/2011 Championship Millwall v Brighton Millwall 2.38 1.69
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Luton v Wrexham Wrexham 4.48 3.28
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Gateshead v Southport Gateshead 1.91 1.43
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Alfreton v Fleetwood Alfreton 4.50 3.36
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Braintree Braintree 3.60 2.66

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Newport v Kettering Newport 2.00 1.47
18/10/2011 Championship Millwall v Brighton Millwall 2.38 1.69
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Braintree Braintree 3.60 2.66

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Newport v Kettering Newport 2.00 1.47

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Newport v Kettering Newport 2.00 1.47
18/10/2011 Championship Millwall v Brighton Millwall 2.38 1.69
19/10/2011 Championship Leicester v Watford Watford 6.08 4.60
18/10/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Bristol City Bristol City 4.35 3.15
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Alfreton v Fleetwood Alfreton 4.50 3.36
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Braintree Braintree 3.60 2.66

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Newport v Kettering Newport 2.00 1.47
18/10/2011 Championship Millwall v Brighton Millwall 2.38 1.69

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Newport v Kettering Newport 2.00 1.47
18/10/2011 Championship Millwall v Brighton Millwall 2.38 1.69
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Braintree Braintree 3.60 2.66
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Alfreton v Fleetwood Alfreton 4.50 3.36

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Newport v Kettering Newport 2.00 1.47
18/10/2011 Championship Millwall v Brighton Millwall 2.38 1.69

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Newport v Kettering Newport 2.00 1.47
18/10/2011 Championship Millwall v Brighton Millwall 2.38 1.69
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Braintree Braintree 3.60 2.65

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Newport v Kettering Newport 2.00 1.47
18/10/2011 Championship Millwall v Brighton Millwall 2.38 1.69

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Newport v Kettering Newport 2.00 1.47

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Newport v Kettering Newport 2.00 1.47

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Newport v Kettering Newport 2.00 1.47
18/10/2011 Championship Millwall v Brighton Millwall 2.38 1.69
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Luton v Wrexham Wrexham 4.48 3.28
18/10/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Bristol City Bristol City 4.35 3.15
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Braintree Braintree 3.60 2.66
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Darlington v Barrow Barrow 4.50 3.30
19/10/2011 Championship Leicester v Watford Watford 6.08 4.60
18/10/2011 Championship Leeds v Coventry Coventry 5.50 4.15
18/10/2011 Championship Ipswich v Portsmouth Portsmouth 4.50 3.25

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Newport v Kettering Newport 2.00 1.47
18/10/2011 Championship Millwall v Brighton Millwall 2.38 1.69
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Braintree Braintree 3.60 2.66
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Darlington v Barrow Barrow 4.50 3.30
18/10/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Bristol City Bristol City 4.35 3.15

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Newport v Kettering Newport 2.00 1.47
18/10/2011 Championship Millwall v Brighton Millwall 2.38 1.69
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Braintree Braintree 3.60 2.66

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Newport v Kettering Newport 2.00 1.47
18/10/2011 Championship Millwall v Brighton Millwall 2.38 1.69
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Braintree Braintree 3.60 2.66

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Newport v Kettering Newport 2.00 1.47
18/10/2011 Championship Millwall v Brighton Millwall 2.38 1.69
18/10/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Bristol City Bristol City 4.35 3.15
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Braintree Braintree 3.60 2.66

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Newport v Kettering Newport 2.00 1.47
18/10/2011 Championship Millwall v Brighton Millwall 2.38 1.69
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Braintree Braintree 3.60 2.66

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Newport v Kettering Newport 2.00 1.47
18/10/2011 Championship Millwall v Brighton Millwall 2.38 1.69

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Newport v Kettering Newport 2.00 1.47
18/10/2011 Championship Millwall v Brighton Millwall 2.38 1.69

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/10/2011 Bsq Prem Newport v Kettering Newport 2.00 1.47
18/10/2011 Championship Millwall v Brighton Millwall 2.38 1.69

That's more like it.....

A much better weekend and it was long overdue as it’s the first good weekend this season for the systems. So much so, the new systems are now in profit for the season which is amazing considering the start they’ve had this season. Rollercoaster doesn’t quite do it justice I think!

Algorithm one had 24 bets. 10 winners, 6 draws and 8 losers meant a decent return. A profit of 8.55pts for H/A betting and a profit of 5.53pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm two had 19 bets. 8 winners, 4 draws and 7 losers also ensured a decent return. A profit of 8.3pts for H/A betting and a profit of 4.8pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm three had 20 bets. 8 winners, 6 draws and 6 losers completed a great day for each individual algorithm. A profit of 6.58pts for H/A betting and a profit of 5pts for DNB betting.

Overall, a good day for each algorithm and thankfully, it translated into a great day for the systems.

The established systems made a profit of 37.95pts for H/A betting and a profit of 31.10pts for DNB betting. There were 88 bets, so it was a very good ROI too.

The new systems made a profit of 44.41pts for H/A betting and a profit of 35.4pts for DNB betting. There were 91 bets, so again, an exceptional ROI.

Pleasingly, 4 of the 9 new systems are now in profit and system 32 is sitting with an ROI of 25% for H/A and 21% for DNB betting. Early days but after being 10pts down from the first 24 bets, it has been a good turnaround for that system.

The established systems aren’t quite doing as well overall but 5 of the 11 systems have now crept into profit which after last month, is another great turnaround.

I feel like my confidence has grown a little in the systems after the shocking start this season but like everyone else following the systems, I’m still learning about them too. I thought I’d seen it all last season and although September was as bad as April, it still shocked me as I didn't expect it!

Anyway, we move onto the midweek now where hopefully, the good run can continue.

Weekend Bets

A massive weekend this weekend with over 170 bets on the systems. As usual, one set of games doesn't matter much in the overall scheme of things but I can really do with a good weekend. Fingers crossed.

The Football Analyst Bets for 14th-16th October

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Bath Bath 4.80 3.59
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Southport Mansfield 1.80 1.35
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Newport County v Tamworth Tamworth 3.75 2.71
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Telford v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 4.00 2.89
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem York v Grimsby Grimsby 4.78 3.59
15/10/2011 Championship Brighton v Hull Hull 3.61 2.60
15/10/2011 Championship Burnley v Reading Burnley 2.49 1.78
14/10/2001 Championship Doncaster v Leeds Doncaster 3.00 2.16
15/10/2011 Championship Watford v Crystal Palace Watford 2.25 1.61
15/10/2011 League 1 Brentford v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.40 2.46
15/10/2011 League 1 Chesterfield v Notts Co Notts Co 2.75 1.96
15/10/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Wycombe Wycombe 4.50 3.31
15/10/2011 League 1 Leyton Orient v Bury Bury 3.61 2.60
15/10/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Colchester Rochdale 2.60 1.85
16/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Sheff Wed Sheff Utd 2.25 1.61
15/10/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Charlton Stevenage 3.00 2.13
15/10/2011 League 1 Tranmere v Oldham Tranmere 2.00 1.42
14/10/2001 League 2 Burton v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.46
14/10/2011 League 2 Port Vale v Northampton Northampton 4.50 3.32
15/10/2011 League 2 Torquay v Gillingham Gillingham 2.90 2.10
15/10/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Crewe Crewe 4.00 2.95
15/10/2011 Premiership Norwich v Swansea Norwich 2.25 1.60
15/10/2011 Premiership QPR v Blackburn QPR 1.91 1.37
15/10/2011 SPL St Johnstone v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.84

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Telford v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 4.00 2.89
15/10/2011 Championship Brighton v Hull Hull 3.61 2.60
15/10/2011 League 1 Brentford v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.40 2.46
16/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Sheff Wed Sheff Utd 2.25 1.61
15/10/2011 League 1 Tranmere v Oldham Tranmere 2.00 1.42
14/10/2001 League 2 Burton v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.46
15/10/2011 Premiership QPR v Blackburn QPR 1.91 1.37

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
15/10/2011 League 1 Tranmere v Oldham Tranmere 2.00 1.42

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Bath Bath 4.80 3.59
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Newport County v Tamworth Tamworth 3.75 2.71
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Telford v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 4.00 2.89
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Stockport Stockport 5.50 4.05
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem York v Grimsby Grimsby 4.78 3.59
15/10/2011 Championship Brighton v Hull Hull 3.61 2.60
15/10/2011 League 1 Brentford v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.40 2.46
15/10/2011 League 1 Chesterfield v Notts Co Notts Co 2.75 1.96
15/10/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Wycombe Wycombe 4.50 3.31
15/10/2011 League 1 Leyton Orient v Bury Bury 3.61 2.60
15/10/2011 League 1 Tranmere v Oldham Tranmere 2.00 1.42
14/10/2011 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Rotherham Rotherham 2.99 2.14
14/10/2011 League 2 Burton v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.46
15/10/2011 League 2 Crawley v Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 4.75 3.50
14/10/2011 League 2 Port Vale v Northampton Northampton 4.50 3.32
15/10/2011 League 2 Torquay v Gillingham Gillingham 2.90 2.10
15/10/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Crewe Crewe 4.00 2.95
15/10/2011 Premiership QPR v Blackburn QPR 1.91 1.37
15/10/2011 SPL St Johnstone v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.84

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
15/10/2011 Championship Brighton v Hull Hull 3.61 2.60
15/10/2011 League 1 Brentford v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.40 2.46
14/10/2011 League 2 Burton v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.46
15/10/2011 League 2 Torquay v Gillingham Gillingham 2.90 2.10
15/10/2011 SPL St Johnstone v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.84

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Bath Bath 4.80 3.59
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Newport County v Tamworth Tamworth 3.75 2.71
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Telford v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 4.00 2.89
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem York v Grimsby Grimsby 4.78 3.59
15/10/2011 Championship Brighton v Hull Hull 3.61 2.60
15/10/2011 League 1 Brentford v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.40 2.46
15/10/2011 League 1 Chesterfield v Notts Co Notts Co 2.75 1.96
15/10/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Wycombe Wycombe 4.50 3.31
15/10/2011 League 1 Leyton Orient v Bury Bury 3.61 2.60
15/10/2011 League 1 Tranmere v Oldham Tranmere 2.00 1.42
14/10/2011 League 2 Burton v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.46
14/10/2011 League 2 Port Vale v Northampton Northampton 4.50 3.32
15/10/2011 League 2 Torquay v Gillingham Gillingham 2.90 2.10
15/10/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Crewe Crewe 4.00 2.95
15/10/2011 Premiership QPR v Blackburn QPR 1.91 1.37
15/10/2011 SPL St Johnstone v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.84

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
15/10/2011 Championship Brighton v Hull Hull 3.61 2.60
15/10/2011 League 1 Brentford v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.40 2.46
14/10/2011 League 2 Burton v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.46
15/10/2011 League 2 Torquay v Gillingham Gillingham 2.90 2.10
15/10/2011 SPL St Johnstone v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.84

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Telford v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 4.00 2.89
15/10/2011 Championship Brighton v Hull Hull 3.61 2.60
15/10/2011 League 1 Brentford v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.40 2.46
16/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Sheff Wed Sheff Utd 2.25 1.61
15/10/2011 League 1 Tranmere v Oldham Tranmere 2.00 1.42
14/10/2001 League 2 Burton v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.46
15/10/2011 Premiership QPR v Blackburn QPR 1.91 1.37

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
15/10/2011 Championship Brighton v Hull Hull 3.61 2.60
15/10/2011 League 1 Brentford v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.40 2.46
14/10/2011 League 2 Burton v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.46

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
15/10/2011 League 1 Tranmere v Oldham Tranmere 2.00 1.42

System 8-22
None

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Bath Bath 4.80 3.59
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Newport County v Tamworth Tamworth 3.75 2.71
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Telford v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 4.00 2.89
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Stockport Stockport 5.50 4.05
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem York v Grimsby Grimsby 4.78 3.59
15/10/2011 Championship Brighton v Hull Hull 3.61 2.60
15/10/2011 Championship Burnley v Reading Burnley 2.49 1.78
15/10/2011 Championship Watford v Crystal Palace Watford 2.25 1.61
15/10/2011 League 1 Brentford v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.40 2.46
15/10/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Wycombe Wycombe 4.50 3.31
15/10/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Colchester Rochdale 2.60 1.85
16/10/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Sheff Wed Sheff Utd 2.25 1.61
15/10/2011 League 1 Tranmere v Oldham Tranmere 2.00 1.42
15/10/2011 League 1 Walsall v Preston Walsall 3.43 2.49
14/10/2011 League 2 Burton v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.46
15/10/2011 League 2 Crawley v Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 4.75 3.50
14/10/2011 League 2 Port Vale v Northampton Northampton 4.50 3.32
15/10/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Crewe Crewe 4.00 2.95
15/10/2011 Premiership QPR v Blackburn QPR 1.91 1.37
15/10/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Dundee Utd Aberdeen 2.50 1.79
15/10/2011 SPL St Johnstone v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.84

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Bath Bath 4.80 3.59
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Newport County v Tamworth Tamworth 3.75 2.71
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Telford v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 4.00 2.89
15/10/2011 Championship Brighton v Hull Hull 3.61 2.60
15/10/2011 Championship Burnley v Reading Burnley 2.49 1.78
15/10/2011 Championship Watford v Crystal Palace Watford 2.25 1.61
15/10/2011 League 1 Brentford v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.40 2.46
15/10/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Wycombe Wycombe 4.50 3.31
15/10/2011 League 1 Walsall v Preston Walsall 3.43 2.49
14/10/2011 League 2 Burton v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.46
15/10/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Crewe Crewe 4.00 2.95
15/10/2011 Premiership QPR v Blackburn QPR 1.91 1.37
15/10/2011 SPL St Johnstone v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.84

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Telford v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 4.00 2.89
15/10/2011 Championship Burnley v Reading Burnley 2.49 1.78
15/10/2011 League 1 Brentford v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.40 2.46
15/10/2011 Premiership QPR v Blackburn QPR 1.91 1.37
15/10/2011 SPL St Johnstone v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.84

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Bath Bath 4.80 3.59
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Newport County v Tamworth Tamworth 3.75 2.71
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Telford v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 4.00 2.89
15/10/2011 Championship Brighton v Hull Hull 3.61 2.60
15/10/2011 Championship Burnley v Reading Burnley 2.49 1.78
15/10/2011 Championship Watford v Crystal Palace Watford 2.25 1.61
15/10/2011 League 1 Brentford v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.40 2.46
15/10/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Wycombe Wycombe 4.50 3.31
14/10/2001 League 2 Burton v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.46
15/10/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Crewe Crewe 4.00 2.95
15/10/2011 Premiership QPR v Blackburn QPR 1.91 1.37
15/10/2011 SPL St Johnstone v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.84

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Bath Bath 4.80 3.59
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Newport County v Tamworth Tamworth 3.75 2.71
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Telford v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 4.00 2.89
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Stockport Stockport 5.50 4.05
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem York v Grimsby Grimsby 4.78 3.59
15/10/2011 Championship Brighton v Hull Hull 3.61 2.60
15/10/2011 League 1 Brentford v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.40 2.46
15/10/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Wycombe Wycombe 4.50 3.31
15/10/2011 League 1 Tranmere v Oldham Tranmere 2.00 1.42
14/10/2011 League 2 Burton v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.46
15/10/2011 League 2 Crawley v Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 4.75 3.50
14/10/2011 League 2 Port Vale v Northampton Northampton 4.50 3.32
15/10/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Crewe Crewe 4.00 2.95
15/10/2011 Premiership QPR v Blackburn QPR 1.91 1.37
15/10/2011 SPL St Johnstone v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.84

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Bath Bath 4.80 3.59
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Newport County v Tamworth Tamworth 3.75 2.71
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Telford v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 4.00 2.89
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem York v Grimsby Grimsby 4.78 3.59
15/10/2011 Championship Brighton v Hull Hull 3.61 2.60
15/10/2011 League 1 Brentford v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.40 2.46
15/10/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Wycombe Wycombe 4.50 3.31
15/10/2011 League 1 Tranmere v Oldham Tranmere 2.00 1.42
14/10/2011 League 2 Burton v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.46
14/10/2011 League 2 Port Vale v Northampton Northampton 4.50 3.32
15/10/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Crewe Crewe 4.00 2.95
15/10/2011 Premiership QPR v Blackburn QPR 1.91 1.37
15/10/2011 SPL St Johnstone v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.84

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Telford v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 4.00 2.89
15/10/2011 League 1 Brentford v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.40 2.46
15/10/2011 League 2 Torquay v Gillingham Gillingham 2.90 2.10
15/10/2011 SPL St Johnstone v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.84

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Telford v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 4.00 2.89
15/10/2011 League 1 Brentford v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.40 2.46
15/10/2011 League 2 Torquay v Gillingham Gillingham 2.90 2.10
15/10/2011 SPL St Johnstone v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.84

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
15/10/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Colchester Rochdale 2.60 1.85
15/10/2011 Bsq Prem Telford v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 4.00 2.89
15/10/2011 League 1 Brentford v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.40 2.46
15/10/2011 SPL St Johnstone v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.84

Summary so far.......

After my earlier post today on the midweek results, I couldn’t resist having a detailed look at how this season has gone so far. I've pulled a summary together tonight.

Below is the picture of the summary and if you click on it, you should hopefully be able to enlarge it to read it.

As I’ve said before, I don’t want to lead people to conclusions on this blog via my analysis and therefore, I’m not going to write a massive post on this. After all, there have only been 776 bets this season and there will be over 6,000 bets come the end of the season, so you can’t draw too many conclusions at the moment anyway.

Here’s some highlights:

The Bsq Prem accounts for 78% of this season’s losses on the systems

Looking in further depth, Bsq Prem Away bets accounts for 83% of this season’s losses on the systems.

Aways account for 96% of this season’s losses on the systems

Bets at 3/1+ account for 106% of this season’s losses on the systems. There have been 214 bets at 3/1+ with only 23 winners. A strike rate of less than 11%!

Away bets at 3/1+ account for 113% of this season’s losses on the systems

System 32 is in profit! I’d missed that fact. :)

Likely conclusion:

We’re due some big priced away winners if the previous 28,000 results are anything to go by!

Being honest, I feel a little better now I’ve looked at this summary and seeing the fact that it is mostly the Bsq Prem that is letting the systems down, along with the low strike rate of the Aways. As the season progresses, the Bsq Prem games will take a smaller share of the overall games (they’ve played the most games so far) and hopefully, we’ll start to hit some big priced away winners and everything will look much better.

Fingers crossed the fight back begins this weekend. There are a few big priced away teams who are well picked by the systems and therefore, it is likely to be the biggest weekend of the season so far.

Midweek Results

A winning midweek due to Grimsby winning but another couple of big priced teams drawing. The systems continue to take on odds on teams who are underpriced (according to my ratings) and at the moment, the favourites aren't winning but unfortunately for me, they aren't losing either! Slightly frustrating as it continues to pull down the overall performance of the systems but hopefully a correction is due soon.

I haven't really looked in depth but I'd be willing to bet that the big priced away teams are showing a massive loss this season so far. Ultimately, it's these teams though that turn good weekends into great weekends and average weekends into good weekends but unfortunately, due to the higher odds, there is a much higher variance in the short-term returns. Looking at the results though, I still believe that the systems are picking the correct teams to back and therefore, things should hopefully improve as the season goes on. It doesn't take too many of these teams to win to turn around the performance of the systems.

After last night, even though it has been a near impossible start this season for many rating systems following the football, System 7-22 is sitting with a 10% ROI and system 8-22 is sitting with an ROI of 7%. Admittedly, picking out two systems when I've got 20 on the go isn't a fair indication of the season's performance but last season, these two systems had the best ROI's by a long way from my proofed systems. Hence, it's encouraging that even though most of the other systems have struggled badly so far this season, these systems are doing OK. This season isn't as much of a lost cause as it once appeared I think!

Last night then, algorithm one had two bets. One winner and one loser for a small loss of 0.17pts. DNB lost 0.63pts.

Algorithm two had one bet, one winner. A profit of 0.83pts for H/A and 0.37pts for DNB.

Algorithm three had 4 bets. One winner, 2 draws and a loser, so not the best night although the two draws were both big priced teams. A loss of 2.17pts for H/A and a loss of 0.63pts for DNB.

The established systems made a profit of 8.13pts for H/A and a profit of 2.29pts for DNB.

The new systems made a profit of 3.47pts for H/A and a profit of 2.29pts for DNB.

Overall, a decent night and another step in the right direction. A helluva long way to go to undo the nightmare that was September on most of the systems but I'm starting to see some light at the end of the tunnel in terms of the ratings settling down and managing to pinpoint some good value bets. Although they may not all be winning (far from it!), the strike rate is creeping up and hopefully things continue this weekend.

I'll be back on Friday with the weekend bets.

Midweek Bets

Only one bet that matters this midweek.

When I found this on Sunday night, Grimsby were just under 2 which I thought was maybe the best bet I'd seen in a while. As tends to happen, people cotton on to the fact they are overpriced and last night at 7pm, they were 1.91 and shortening across the board. By 9pm, I think 1.8 was about the best price.

I have them down as about 4/7 shots as they should outclass a Barrow side who are outperforming massively at the moment.

We'll see what happens though but I hope the market is right in this case.

The Football Analyst Bets for 11th October

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/10/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Barrow Grimsby 1.83 1.37
11/10/2011 Bsq Prem Stockport v Darlington Stockport 2.25 1.59

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/10/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Barrow Grimsby 1.83 1.37

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/10/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Barrow Grimsby 1.83 1.37

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/10/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Barrow Grimsby 1.83 1.37

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/10/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Barrow Grimsby 1.83 1.37

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/10/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Barrow Grimsby 1.83 1.37

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/10/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Barrow Grimsby 1.83 1.37

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/10/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Barrow Grimsby 1.83 1.37

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/10/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Barrow Grimsby 1.83 1.37

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/10/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Barrow Grimsby 1.83 1.37

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/10/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Barrow Grimsby 1.83 1.37

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/10/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Barrow Grimsby 1.83 1.37
11/10/2011 Bsq Prem Stockport v Darlington Stockport 2.25 1.59
11/10/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Telford Telford 4.36 3.23
11/10/2011 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Luton Ebbsfleet 5.09 3.78

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/10/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Barrow Grimsby 1.83 1.37
11/10/2011 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Luton Ebbsfleet 5.09 3.78

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/10/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Barrow Grimsby 1.83 1.37

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/10/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Barrow Grimsby 1.83 1.37

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/10/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Barrow Grimsby 1.83 1.37

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/10/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Barrow Grimsby 1.83 1.37

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/10/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Barrow Grimsby 1.83 1.37

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/10/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Barrow Grimsby 1.83 1.37

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/10/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Barrow Grimsby 1.83 1.37

Frustration Continues.......

I think the title of this post just sums things up at the moment. I can’t seem to buy a lucky break (I know I’m not the only one!) but Saturday just seemed to be another ‘one of them days’ this season. Unfortunately, they keep happening and the only thing I can take from this weekend is the fact that things didn’t go backwards, unlike some other weekends this season.

My systems very rarely throw up a big priced team as often as Tranmere and they appeared on 11 systems this weekend. At 5/1 to win, you can see how big a result it would have been for them to win. I was watching Soccer Saturday and this was one of the games covered in the studio. From the reports, they pretty much dominated Charlton the whole game and looked the most likely to score but unfortunately for me and everyone following the systems, they couldn’t find the second goal to go 2-0 up. As always happens when you’re on a 5/1 chance, they let in an equaliser late on from a dodgy pen. I’ve seen the penalty today and it wasn’t clear cut. :(

Looking at the shots on goal ratios from the game (from BBC admittedly which I don’t place too much faith in!), Tranmere had 8 shots on target to Charlton’s 2 and they had 10 attempts off target to Charlton’s 4. When you consider Tranmere scored first and would have soaked up pressure from the home side, the stats favour Tranmere enormously. Very frustrating and a swing of 66pts on that game which would have been my best weekend this season by far if Tranmere had won.

The other game that had a big priced team was Stevenage and although Huddersfield did dominate this, Stevenage missed a last minute penalty which would have saved a draw and returned the DNB stake I had on them.

Lastly, I had Forest Green (11/2) away to Fleetwood on one of the systems and they managed to draw 0-0 and reading the report, they had a goal disallowed that could easily have stood and they held their own too in that game.

Overall, 3 big priced teams who on another day, could have sneaked a win for the systems and give the P&l a massive boost but unfortunately for me, it didn’t happen.

Anyway, enough moaning from me.

Algorithm one had 9 bets this weekend and resulted in 3 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses. A loss of 1.97pts for H/A betting and a profit of 0.06pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm two had 8 bets this weekend, 2 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses. A loss of 2.8pts for H/A betting and a loss of 1.28pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm three had 12 bets, 3 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses. A loss of 2.8pts for H/A betting and a profit of 0.62pts for DNB betting.

As you can see above, a lot of draws in there with 29 bets producing 13 draws, so DNB betting will have done better this weekend than H/A betting.

The established systems from last season had 35 bets and only lost 0.77pts in total. DNB betting made a profit of 0.62pts.

The new systems from this season had 47 bets and lost 11.2pts for H/A betting. DNB did much better though and made a profit of 4.8pts.

In total, from 82 bets this weekend on all systems, the systems hit 37 draws. A 45% strike rate on draws is a killer and ultimately, that’s why the systems haven’t made a really good profit this weekend. If a couple of these draws had been wins, then it would have been a good weekend and if Tranmere had won, it would have been a great weekend.

The other point to make about this weekend was the fact the more selective combined systems had a better weekend. It may have only been one bet and one winner on systems 7-22 and 8-22 but these are my two best systems from last season and after a treacherous start this season, these systems have managed to pull back most of the losses and after this weekend, amazingly, these are 2 of the best 3 systems this season.

Everyone who’s following my systems this season will have one or both of these systems in their portfolio (or at least, they should have if they listened to me!) and therefore, although it has been a disaster this season so far, these systems have done remarkably well to be in the position they are now. I wish 15 or so of my other systems were in the same position as these two systems but there is plenty of time left this season for these other systems to catch up.

Anyway, we roll on to the midweek and I’ll paste up any bets for the Bsq Prem card on Tuesday if there are any bets.

Weekend Bets

Even though it is an international weekend, there are still plenty of value games. Key game for me is on Sunday with Notts County but plenty of other teams who are decent prices thrown up too. Fingers crossed for a good weekend.


The Football Analyst Bets for 8th-9th October

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
08/10/2011 Bsq Prem Bath v Darlington Bath 3.10 2.20
08/10/2011 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Grimsby Grimsby 3.75 2.71
08/10/2011 Bsq Prem York v Braintree York 1.83 1.35
08/10/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Rochdale Bournemouth 2.20 1.59
08/10/2011 League 1 Carlisle v Brentford Carlisle 2.38 1.68
08/10/2011 League 1 Charlton v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54
09/10/2011 League 1 Notts County v Hartlepool Notts County 2.10 1.52
08/10/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Walsall Walsall 3.10 2.19
08/10/2011 League 2 Cheltenham v Dagenham Dagenham 3.20 2.32

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09/10/2011 League 1 Notts County v Hartlepool Notts County 2.10 1.52
08/10/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Walsall Walsall 3.10 2.19

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09/10/2011 League 1 Notts County v Hartlepool Notts County 2.10 1.52

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
08/10/2011 Bsq Prem Bath v Darlington Bath 3.10 2.20
08/10/2011 Bsq Prem Fleetwood v Forest Green Forest Green 6.50 4.96
08/10/2011 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Grimsby Grimsby 3.75 2.71
08/10/2011 League 1 Charlton v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54
08/10/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Stevenage Stevanage 5.50 4.13
09/10/2011 League 1 Notts County v Hartlepool Notts County 2.10 1.52
08/10/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Walsall Walsall 3.10 2.19
08/10/2011 League 2 Cheltenham v Dagenham Dagenham 3.20 2.32

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09/10/2011 League 1 Notts County v Hartlepool Notts County 2.10 1.52
08/10/2011 League 2 Cheltenham v Dagenham Dagenham 3.20 2.32

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
08/10/2011 Bsq Prem Bath v Darlington Bath 3.10 2.20
08/10/2011 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Grimsby Grimsby 3.75 2.71
08/10/2011 League 1 Charlton v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54
09/10/2011 League 1 Notts County v Hartlepool Notts County 2.10 1.52
08/10/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Walsall Walsall 3.10 2.19
08/10/2011 League 2 Cheltenham v Dagenham Dagenham 3.20 2.32

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09/10/2011 League 1 Notts County v Hartlepool Notts County 2.10 1.52
08/10/2011 League 2 Cheltenham v Dagenham Dagenham 3.20 2.32

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09/10/2011 League 1 Notts County v Hartlepool Notts County 2.10 1.52
08/10/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Walsall Walsall 3.10 2.19

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09/10/2011 League 1 Notts County v Hartlepool Notts County 2.10 1.52

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09/10/2011 League 1 Notts County v Hartlepool Notts County 2.10 1.52

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09/10/2011 League 1 Notts County v Hartlepool Notts County 2.10 1.52

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
08/10/2011 Bsq Prem Fleetwood v Forest Green Forest Green 6.50 4.96
08/10/2011 Bsq Prem Tamworth v Lincoln Lincoln 3.23 2.30
08/10/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Rochdale Bournemouth 2.20 1.59
08/10/2011 League 1 Bury v Exeter Bury 2.20 1.57
08/10/2011 League 1 Carlisle v Brentford Carlisle 2.38 1.68
08/10/2011 League 1 Charlton v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54
08/10/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Stevenage Stevanage 5.50 4.13
09/10/2011 League 1 Notts County v Hartlepool Notts County 2.10 1.52
08/10/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Walsall Walsall 3.10 2.19
08/10/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Macclesfield Macclesfield 4.90 3.54
08/10/2011 League 2 Cheltenham v Dagenham Dagenham 3.20 2.32
08/10/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Port Vale Port Vale 3.25 2.35

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
08/10/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Rochdale Bournemouth 2.20 1.59
08/10/2011 League 1 Carlisle v Brentford Carlisle 2.38 1.68
08/10/2011 League 1 Charlton v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54
08/10/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Stevenage Stevanage 5.50 4.13
09/10/2011 League 1 Notts County v Hartlepool Notts County 2.10 1.52
08/10/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Walsall Walsall 3.10 2.19
08/10/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Macclesfield Macclesfield 4.90 3.54

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09/10/2011 League 1 Notts County v Hartlepool Notts County 2.10 1.52
08/10/2011 League 1 Carlisle v Brentford Carlisle 2.38 1.68
08/10/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Macclesfield Macclesfield 4.90 3.54

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
08/10/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Rochdale Bournemouth 2.20 1.59
08/10/2011 League 1 Carlisle v Brentford Carlisle 2.38 1.68
08/10/2011 League 1 Charlton v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54
09/10/2011 League 1 Notts County v Hartlepool Notts County 2.10 1.52
08/10/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Walsall Walsall 3.10 2.19

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
08/10/2011 Bsq Prem Fleetwood v Forest Green Forest Green 6.50 4.96
08/10/2011 League 1 Charlton v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54
08/10/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Stevenage Stevanage 5.50 4.13
09/10/2011 League 1 Notts County v Hartlepool Notts County 2.10 1.52
08/10/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Walsall Walsall 3.10 2.19
08/10/2011 League 2 Cheltenham v Dagenham Dagenham 3.20 2.32

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
08/10/2011 League 1 Charlton v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54
09/10/2011 League 1 Notts County v Hartlepool Notts County 2.10 1.52
08/10/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Walsall Walsall 3.10 2.19
08/10/2011 League 2 Cheltenham v Dagenham Dagenham 3.20 2.32

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09/10/2011 League 1 Notts County v Hartlepool Notts County 2.10 1.52
08/10/2011 League 1 Charlton v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54
08/10/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Stevenage Stevanage 5.50 4.13
08/10/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Walsall Walsall 3.10 2.19

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09/10/2011 League 1 Notts County v Hartlepool Notts County 2.10 1.52
08/10/2011 League 1 Charlton v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54
08/10/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Walsall Walsall 3.10 2.19

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09/10/2011 League 1 Notts County v Hartlepool Notts County 2.10 1.52
08/10/2011 League 1 Charlton v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54
08/10/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Walsall Walsall 3.10 2.19

What if I had staked.....

1pt on every value bet so far this season?

There was an interesting question from Alan on my last post. I could have answered quickly in the comments section but the results are a little surprising (even for me and I’m running this show!), so I thought it was worth showing them in a post.

Alan’s question was “How much would I have lost from staking 1pt on all your bets this season?”

I joked in my reply that it wasn’t necessarily the case that this method would be losing this season as I knew from last season that there isn’t a strong correlation between this method of betting and the results from the systems.

Simply, staking 1pt on every team that appears is the opposite of what I’m trying do by placing more on teams which are higher value bets. Clearly, if you just place 1pt on every team that appears, you are disregarding a lot of what my ratings do by trying to find the highest value bets.

I know last season that placing 1pt on every team that appeared generated a return of around 1% whereas the ROI for my systems was around 9%. Hence, I can’t believe that this method is a more profitable method long-term.

Anyway, what does it look like this season?

Well, I’m amazed.

As of today, there have been 141 bets unique bets thrown up so far this season. By simply placing 1pt on these, your profit will have been 2.39pts for H/A betting. Things are slightly worse for DNB betting with a loss of 5.9pts.

If we look only at the established systems from last season (algorithms one and two), then there has been 116 unique bets thrown up. A profit of 4.34pts for H/A betting and a loss of 1.1pts for DNB.

If we look at the new systems from this season (algorithm three), there have been 99 bets thrown up. This has resulted in a loss of 4.73pts for H/A betting and a loss of 9.3pts for DNB betting.

Overall, the results are somewhat surprising although when I look at the monthly results post, it maybe isn’t too surprising. The systems that are doing best are the ones which have the most bets on them and therefore, this method of putting 1pt on every value bet is just one step beyond system 6 or system 21 or system 31.

Anyway, I’m not sure what to make of this. All the work I’ve done has shown that this isn’t a way to maximise profits long-term or even medium-term if I’m honest but in the short-term, it’s another example that anything can happen.

I’ll be back on Friday with the bets for this weekend. We have a reduced fixture card due to internationals.