Since I returned from my honeymoon at the start of Feb, I’ve had bets on 19 days, 14 losses and 5 wins. Only making a profit on 26% of the days is pretty low and again, it doesn’t tell the whole story as the portfolio of systems I follow has made a profit over this period. However, I am starting to feel like I can do with a break and unfortunately, I’m in the middle of a very busy period, so I just need to keep ploughing on but I’m already starting to look forward to the Summer!
I think one issue I have is that I’m very anal when it comes to results updating. I can tell you how much I’ve won or lost on a particular day over the past 5 years now (racing, footie, golf etc.) and tracking a daily P&L is probably not the best thing when things aren’t going your way. It feels like a lot of hard work for not a lot of return at times. Long-term though, the picture remains rosy!
If I look at the results from the weekend, again, I can’t argue with the fact that my ratings are finding value bets but no matter how good they are, you need something to go your way in the short-term with the odds I’m playing at but at the moment, not much is going my way.
Tamworth at odds of 6.00, Tranmere at odds of 6.00, Burnley at odds of 4.18 and Coventry at odds of 4.00. 4 fairly big priced aways, 4 draws and ultimately, 4 losers for the systems. I don’t think anyone can argue that these teams weren’t value bets but I just need one of them to win and it turns a losing weekend into a profitable one. Again though, it didn’t happen and therefore, it’s another small loss on the weekend.
Algorithm one had 15 bets, 5 winners, 5 draws and 5 losers. A loss of 1.08pts for H/A betting and a loss of 0.14pts for DNB.
Algorithm two had 11 bets, 2 winners, 4 draws and 5 losers. A loss of 4.83pts for H/A betting and a loss of 2.64pts for DNB.
Algorithm three had 16 bets, 4 winners, 6 draws and 6 losers. A loss of 5.09pts for H/A betting and a loss of 2.27pts for DNB.
Losses on all 3 algorithms will mean the systems had a bad weekend I’m afraid.
The established systems lost 12.7pts for H/A betting and 6.3pts for DNB betting. Considering the base algorithm results, only losing 12.7pts seems like an achievement.
Unfortunately, the new systems didn’t escape anywhere near as well. The new systems lost 33.6pts for H/A betting and 21.7pts for DNB.
There you go, a fairly quiet weekend but when things don’t go your way, a pretty substantial loss on the systems this weekend. The systems started the month well but the constant losses has seen most of the profits evaporate as we’ve moved through the month. So much so that the month now hangs in the balance again and another bad midweek and the month will be loss making all of a sudden.
I’m sure some people will point out that it’s possibly the ‘second half of the season syndrome’ showing its teeth and maybe this is the start of things to come over the remaining weeks of the season and therefore, I should expect to lose from here on in. We’ll see what happens.
Next bets will be on the blog tomorrow at 9am. There is a busy midweek card and there will be a fair number of system bets.
I can empathise completely with the way you're feeling, Graeme. You're running a portfolio of systems in the same way as I run a portfolio of services.
ReplyDeleteOne thing I've noticed about running a portfolio, is that most months are profitable, albeit to varying degrees. But no matter how large or small the final profit figure be, there are usually two or three days within the month that together provide the whole profit for that month. The majority of the remaining 20-odd days show anything from a nasty loss to a small profit. Most days usually produce a figure within the -£50 to +£50 range; in other words, you have to wade through a whole load of crap just to stand still and patiently wait for the couple of days each month that give you what you need. Now when you're recording all the figures day in and day out, focused on the here and now, it's no wonder that a lot of the time it all feels like rather hard going. Psychologically, it ain't half hard work. Personally I just get knackered by it all. It seems strange, but after Cheltenham finished on Friday, I felt completely done in - weary of gambling, and really wanting a quiet day or two. And I'd made a decent profit on the week!
Now I know this is nothing you don't already know - but if you're having that number of losing days, but not losing any money overall...well, there's a lot worse places than that to be!
So keep going, mate. It'll soon be summer. And by the sound of things, that's when the real hard work will start!!! :)
Hi Rowan.
ReplyDeleteI think my issue with my systems is that I’ve not quite reached the perfect strategy to suit my own style of betting yet. I’m very much like you in the sense I’m looking for something slow and steady but last season was a rollercoaster and although this season has been much (much!) better, it is still too variable for my own liking. I’m definitely going to be looking to do something with Asian Handicap betting next season and I’ll probably be having fewer bets than I have this season. I’ll hopefully replicate this idea onto the European systems I’m building and that way, I can have two portfolios, one of the UK leagues, one for the Euro leagues, not too many bets but hopefully, a smoother P&L.
It’s not a bad position to be in though. Some people search for winning systems all their life. I have the systems, I’m just searching for the smoothest way to make a profit! ;)
Cheers,
Graeme