I’ll do as I usually do and go through each set of
systems one at a time. (There are still two outstanding results as stated on
the last post. I’ll obviously update the results sheets for these results
tomorrow night but this is assuming both bets lose).
Established
Systems
A month that started well for these systems but the
Festive period was a nightmare (see last blog post for gory details!). Overall
though, a loss on the month of 40.2pts if betting outright from 403 bets. This
is the second losing month in a row after a 12pt loss last month. The 40pts
lost is actually the 5th worst month since Sep-06 and is the 4th
worst month since the systems went live. Very disappointing but maybe it was
overdue (I said that last month though!). The systems were showing a level of
consistency I didn’t think was possible over a calendar year and maybe some
sort of correction is happening now.
We all know this is irrational and ultimately, every
month and every bet even is independent of what has happened before but I do
think at times, you can’t continue to win forever without the odd blip
happening now and again. Let’s just hope we’re over the blip now!
The combined systems lost a massive 26.4pts in the month and
that makes it the second losing month in a row for these systems too. These
systems are basically break-even for the season now which is disappointing to
say the least.
I think I should make a little mention of the draw this
month. As you can see, if using AH0.5, it was actually a small profit on the
month and that shows the draw has been a menace this month.
In terms of the individual systems, the base ratings didn’t
do badly again this month. System 6 lost 1.3% but system 21 made a profit of
16.7%. They combined to give a profit of 8.2% on system 6-21. This is a great
base to work from but for the umpteenth time this season, the higher systems
made a mess of things in a massive way and this has summed up the season to date.
So far this season, systems 6, 21 and 6-21 are profitable
and are having decent seasons. My ratings are working as well as they have
always done and arguably, they are doing better than last season. However,
narrowing down the bets has been very difficult and this is where the issue
lies this month again.
6-22 made a loss even though 6-21 was a profitable subset
to choose bets from and the same applies to 7-21. 7-21 took the 71 bets on
6-21, selected 33 and turned an 8.2% profit into a 33% loss. Hard to believe
tbh but it is consistent with previous months this season. Goes against
everything we learnt in the first two seasons though.
7-22 only hit 2 winners from 12 which is shocking and
8-21 and 8-22 had a disaster too again this month.
If this was the first season these systems had been
alive, you would seriously be doubting the ability of these systems to narrow
down the bets but as the systems have shown for 2 seasons, they do a brilliant
job of narrowing down the best bets (or at least, they did until Oct-12!).
I think we just need to continue to keep an eye on things
and in the grand scheme of things, I’m sure 7-22 and 8-22 look OK if we take
into account the previous results but the longer this run goes on, the more
worrying it is for all of us!
New Systems
I feel like I can’t be too harsh on these systems
considering it’s their first live season but basically, they have suffered their
first monthly loss this season. (NB. If St Mirren win tomorrow, this won’t be
the case!) Even so, a loss of 5.1pts
from 537 bets isn’t a disaster by any means and considering the first 3 months
were profitable, I can live with a small loss this month.
Interestingly, the combined systems made a small profit
this month, so that’s 3 months out of 4 for these too in terms of profit as the
combined systems suffered a small loss in Oct-12 if I remember rightly.
Looking at the individual systems, there isn’t much to
say. The largest loss was 4.9pts and the largest profit was 6.1 on system
31-41. Interestingly, 31 and 41 were both loss making but 31-41 was the best
system. A great advert for the way the systems work!
I feel like I should point out the fact the AH returns
improved the more draw coverage you had. Clearly, the draw played some part in
the poor performance this month but in previous months, the draw didn’t impact
these systems when it impacted other systems, so it’s swings and roundabouts.
Overall, a solid enough month for these systems and if
this is a bad month for these systems (bearing in mind the good months were +121
and +76), then we can take a small loss.
Misc Systems
Given the mess that every other system has made this
month, it says a lot (and I mean a lot!) that these 6 systems all made a small
profit this month. Not only that, the
results for outright betting were the same overall as using AH0.5. This is
pretty rare and it shows that the systems were impacted by too many draws this month
and yet, they still made profits. An exceptional performance.
A profit of 28.4pts from 287 bets. Doesn’t look like a
great month but when other systems are losing 10% in a month, to win 10% is
very good!
One thing that has separated the established systems from
other systems has been their ability to dodge the really bad days but this
season, it is these Misc systems that have done this the best. As I’ve written
a fair few times on the blog, I had great faith in these systems last season
and they let me down. I took a gamble this season by keeping these systems as
part of my portfolio and so far, I’ve been repaid handsomely. Obviously, it’s
not ideal that a set of miscellaneous systems are holding up my portfolio this
season but that’s the beauty of portfolio betting. If you follow enough
different bets that aren’t correlated, then you can hopefully smooth out the
P&L a little and so far, it has been this way this season. I still believe the Est systems are better
systems and come season end, it will be interesting to see where the Misc
Systems end up in comparison.
Under/Over
Systems
A bit of a nothing month for these bets. A loss of 0.9pts
on the month from 56 bets. (NB. This assumes a loser tomorrow. If this wins, it
will be a small profit on the month).
It was a small profit for the Over system, offset by a
loss on the Under system. They have followed this pattern for most of this
season, where the Over system has been the most profitable system. Last season,
they finished neck and neck in terms of ROI but the Over system has really
struggled to find a decent number of bets this season if I’m honest. However,
it has made up for it with a much better ROI, so it’s swings and roundabouts
again.
I keep saying it but for me personally, these systems don’t
do much for me at all. However, I know a few people are following them this
season and are doing OK I think, so they’ll remain part of the overall
portfolio as long as there is some demand for them.
Euro Systems
I didn’t think I’d be saying this too often this season
but these systems have been the star performer this month. They really are hit
and miss on any day and they are as likely to hit no winners as hit a few big
priced winners but so far, they are proving profitable and that’s all that
matters. A great month with a profit of
80.7pts from 329 bets. An ROI of 24.5%.
A great performance but the most interesting stat by far
is that backing AH0.5 made a loss of 47.6pts! Clearly, the teams either won or
lost this month which shows how thin a line there is at times. It’s very rare
to see such a variance in performance and clearly, anyone using AH betting on
these bets probably lost in the month even the systems had a decent month!
The worst performing system was E3-E7 which is meant to
be the best system but E2-E7 had an ROI of 59% this month, so depending on what
systems you follow, it could have been a good month or a great month or even a
losing month!
Overall
I was actually surprised when I did this calculation for this
month. Overall, it was a profit of 62.9pts from 1,612 bets. Yeah, I’m sure many reading this are as
surprised as me! Having just did a post with the Festive results which showed a
loss of 170pts which was 50% of the season’s profits to date (to the end of
Nov-12), it basically means that in the first half of December, the systems
made in excess of 50% of the season’s profits to that point. It’s funny, it’s a
great advert for not getting too carried away with short term losses as you
soon forget about the profits you’ve just made before the losses occurred.
I think the reason things feel worse is because the
losses are being generated on the Est Systems which make up the largest chunk
of my betting portfolio and for many people following, this is their betting
portfolio. Hindsight is wonderful at this game as I’ve said many times and I’m
sure if we wound the clock back to the start of this season, we’d all be
looking to diversify our portfolios much more and not choose to follow a very
small selection of systems from one set of ratings.
Of course, on the other hand, the systems which are
carrying most money are meant to be the ones which have the most proofed
results and therefore, maybe I’m asking for a lot to have taken more of a punt
with other systems but I’m sure I would have diversified even more if given the
chance again. I suspect I’m not the only one thinking along these lines……
Next post should be an update of the season to date. We’ll
call it half season review.
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