I suspect due to the fact the established systems are
having a tough season to date, many subscribers aren’t achieving the levels of
profit they’d hoped they would have achieved so far this season. However, as I
said at the start of the season, every subscriber is responsible for their own
profitability this season and ultimately, depending on what systems we choose
to follow, that dictates where our P&L would end up.
People external to the service will look at the proofed
results and see it has been a tough season as the service is basically breaking
even this season. I think this is fair as in the first two seasons, the proofed
results were better than following all systems, so I can’t have it both ways.
This season, following all systems is better than following the established
combined systems.
A few people contacted me after the last post to tell me
to keep the chin up and that they are having a decent season from following
multiple systems. It’s nice to hear this as all I’ve heard most of the season is
from disgruntled subscribers who are following system 7-22 or 7-22 to 8-22 and
are having a tough time of it this season.
The subscribers having a tough time of it from email correspondence
are those following the bets using AHs. This season, the best bets haven’t been
winning, the Homes have been shockingly bad, the weaker bets at bigger odds
have been holding up the P&L but if using AH bets, you are losing money on
the Homes, you are losing money on the best bet aways and on the teams that are
winning, you asking for a big handicap and thus, nullifying any edge you have!
I dread to think how bad the results have been this season for those following
AH bets only.
Again though, those who chose this path did so from their
own choice and therefore, they are responsible for their P&L. I know
someone has written to me asking for advice and whether I think it was a really
bad idea to follow AH bets but being honest, before this season, you could have
did anything you wanted and made a profit. I said as much as this in the
Summer. However, AH bets really erode a large part of your edge and if there
isn’t much of an edge there (as has been the case this season with the
established systems), that break-even result will seem a long way away if using
AH betting!
At the end of the day, I probably need to face up to the
fact that this season, for the first time in 3 seasons, not every subscriber
will make a decent profit from following the service. I know it’s not ideal and
ultimately, it will no doubt impact on the propensity of these people to
resubscribe next season if they have had a bad experience this season but that’s
the way it goes at this game.
Anyway, the reason for this post was to do a quick piece
of analysis. Two people contacted me to ask me what the P&L would have been
for the UK bets and Euro bets this season if simply following every team that
appeared, regardless of which system it appeared on and regardless of how many
times it appeared on systems. This analysis is based on results to the end 2012.
I’ve looked at this before on the blog a few times at
points in time. What I tend to find is
that the returns aren’t as good as following a single algorithm on its own. So,
for example, I would expect 6,21,31 and 41 to beat the returns from this
method n the long-term. This has happened the last few times I’ve looked at this (couldn’t find
the blog posts but I have looked at this in each of the last two seasons for
sure).
Anyway, here are the results for the UK systems this
season.
What this shows is the results for each algorithm
(6,21,31 and 41) and then underneath, it shows the results if simply putting
1pt on every team that appears on any of these 4 systems.
As you can see, the results from backing each team when it appears only returns an ROI of 4.5%
from 553 bets. This doesn’t compare too favourably with system 21 or 41 but isn’t
too far behind system 31. The only algorithm that this method beats is
algorithm one (system 6).
What I would say is that if you can generate a 4.5%
return from just backing every team that appears, then this isn’t too bad. I’ve
said before on the blog that if each algorithm can achieve a return of between
3%-5% each season, I’d be happy. Only system 6 is below that so far this season
and over the first two seasons, every algorithm has achieved this target, so
there is every chance that this will be achieved again this season for the UK
systems.
Now onto the Euro systems….
Here are the results:
Backing every team that appears this season generates a
profit of 9.6% from 219 bets. This is very good I think. However, when you look
at each algorithm and the fact they have profits of 13.7% and 12.2% this
season, you have to think it is better to simply follow an algorithm in
isolation rather than follow every bet that appears.
This is probably the crux of this analysis. For the UK
systems, 3 of the single algorithms are doing better than simply following
every bet that appears and for the Euro systems, both algorithms are doing
better than following every bet that appears.
Therefore, I don’t believe following every bet that appears is a method
that can improve your profitability using my systems. You are better following
a single system but then again, long-term, combined systems beat single
systems, so all in all, not sure there is too much wrong with what most of us
are doing at the moment!
Hopefully this answers the question both subscribers had. If not, just get in touch with me again via
email.
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