Well, I said I enjoyed writing the monthly review last
month and although March hasn’t been anywhere near as good, it’s been good enough
to allow me to enjoy writing this review I think. In particular, one set of
systems have had an amazing month and given everyone knows that I want these
systems to succeed long-term, I think this is a great first step towards another
one of my aims with these systems.
I personally have had another stunning month with my own
betting portfolioi (3 highly profitable months in a row) and quite simply, if I
end the season with the same £ amount of profit I’ve made at the moment, it has
been a very, very good season for me. Hasn’t been the smoothest of journeys as
I’ve already said but at the end of the day, once you reach your profit target
in this game, I don’t think you should beat yourself up about how you got
there.
Anyway, this isn’t meant to be about me, it’s meant to be
about the systems. Here’s the review for
March 2013.
Est Systems
These systems had their best ever month last month since
the systems went live but they have followed that spectacular month with errr….a
nothing month. By nothing, I mean a very uneventful month, no massive highs, no
massive lows, just a quiet month. Overall, a profit of 5.1pts from 396
bets. An ROI of 1.3%.
The biggest profit on a system was 4.3pts on 7-21 and the
biggest loss was 5.8pts on 21 and 6-21. Don’t see this happening too often
(maybe the first time since the systems went live?) but every bet on system 21
has appeared on 6-21 this month. Interestingly, the extra bets on system 6 hit
8 winners from 12 bets amazingly, so 6 had a small profit this month as a
result.
6-21 had a poor month I think but the combined systems
overall managed a very small profit of 3.7pts from 160 bets.
I think it was pleasing to see that even though my ratings
haven’t had a good month on these algorithms, a few of the higher combined
systems had a decent month. System 7-22
has managed a profit again this month which follows on from a really good month
last month. A profit of 4.1pts from 13 bets is an ROI of 31.6% this month which
isn’t bad!
7-21 did a good job in narrowing down the 6-21 bets as it
turned a loss into a profit but 8-21 didn’t build on 7-21. 7-22 built on 6-22
but 8-22 didn’t build on 7-22.
Overall, it’s hard to draw too many conclusions from a
month like this as the higher combined systems didn’t really have enough bets
to look at the trends of how the bets appeared on the higher systems.
If this month was being reviewed in the context of the
first two seasons, I would probably say it has been a really poor month but in
the context of this season, this month hasn’t been too bad at all. It is the
second profitable month in a row and at least consolidates the hugely
profitable month we saw last month.
Ultimately, whether or not these systems end the season
in profit still hangs in the balance. I really hope they can build on this and
finish the season strongly but as always, we’ll see what happens. Given the
performance of some of the other TFA systems this season, I suspect this will
be the last season where we see so much focus on these Established Systems. I
expect there are better systems in the TFA system portfolio these days.
New Systems
Another very solid month for these systems and their 6th
profitable month from 7 months of live results. This month didn’t ever appear
to be a spectacular month at all and yet, we saw a profit of 52.7pts from 630
bets. An ROI of 8.4%.
The third algorithm I ever built was System 31 and it has
had an amazing month this month. A
profit of 30.1pts from 121 bets. System 41 actually had a really poor month in
comparison and this algorithm suffered a loss of 13pts from 127 bets.
Quite amazing that two DNB algorithms I’ve built could
have such a varying degree of success in a single month! Basically, if we
analyse the results of 31-41, we can see that system 31 had 24 more bets than
31-41 and yet, it created a profit of 31.8pts from these 24 games!
I remember saying last season that I hoped the 3rd
algorithm could prove to be one of my best algorithms and yet, it was always in
the shadow of system 6 and 21 last season. This season, it has been in the
shadow of system 41 for the main part but after this month, system 31 is
standing out as the best performing algorithm at the moment. Being honest,
system 21 and 41 aren’t too far behind but still, system 31 is having a
storming season and has just had an amazing month.
Although system 41 struggled this month, the strength of
the ratings weren’t bad and system 42 had a 7.9% ROI this month. Not bad
considering it was picking games from a sample that had lost 10%!
Although 31-41 made a small loss, the other 5 combined
systems made a profit and the 6 combined systems made a profit of 23pts from
256 bets. Not great but it does build on the performance of the season to date.
Not every month can be a massive month, even for these systems!
Misc Systems
Have I ever told you that I love the STO systems and they
are my best systems? Well, yeah, I told you all last season and unfortunately,
they were shit last season! Anyway, they’ve repaid my faith many times over
this season and they have contributed to another decent profit for the Misc
systems this month.
A profit of 44.3pts from 336 bets is a really good return.
55.2pts profit from 150pts for the STO systems and a loss of 10.9pts for the
other 3 systems.
The star of the show was STOZ this month which somehow
created a profit of 29.2pts from 64 bets! Amazingly, the AH returns were also massive
this month and when the system wasn’t hitting winners, it was hitting teams who
draw which meant it wasn’t too far away from an even better month I think.
The results for STOZ this season now are just unreal and
admittedly, I always thought the order of the 3 STO systems would be STOY, STOX
and then STOZ but STOZ did best last season and has also done best this season.
Just shows what I know!
I guess if I was picking the system of the season now,
STOZ would probably be it although I honestly can’t remember what sort of
betting bank I suggested for these systems if following them individually, so
it may be that there are other systems with a higher ROC this season. We’ll
find out at the season end as that’s when I’ll be reviewing all the systems and
we can do some comparisons.
Last season, this set of systems had 5 winning months and
4 losing months over the season. This season so far, 6 profitable months and 1
losing month. Not too sure what went wrong last season (well I do know, all the
aways were draws instead of wins as the Homes did well!) but this season has
seen a big improvement. I’ve mocked myself a few times for some of the quotes I’ve
used about these systems when I first created them as I honestly thought they
could be the best systems I’d created but I changed my mind after the first
season obviously! Maybe I wasn’t too far out?
Under/Over
Systems
A loss of 3.6pts from 41 bets. Started the month
amazingly well, 5.5pts profit from the first 22 bets. 9.1pts loss from the next
26 bets. Says it all, they flatter to deceive. I hate these systems.
Euro Systems
Finally, these systems produce something that mirrors the
backtested results I spent all Summer discussing on the blog. My record at
building systems with an edge is probably as good as anyone who’s ever looked
at football betting in a number of years I suspect but until this month, I was
scratching my head about these 4 European Leagues.
So far, the systems haven’t been a disaster but going
into this month, they were showing a small loss overall. I’d already made my
mind up that I was going to have to start from scratch again in the Summer and
have a second shot at trying to crack these European leagues as I honestly thought
I’d built a dud set of rating algorithms here.
As it stands, it may well be true that I have built a dud
set of rating algorithms as the base ratings aren’t showing any sort of
significant edge but thankfully, when I cross refer the algorithms, we’ve seen
some amazing results this month.
Overall, it was a profit of 161.7pts from 464 bets. An
ROI of 34.8%! The 6 combined systems made a profit of 86.6pts from 191 bets at
an ROI of 50%!
I guess the reason we’ve seen these results this month is
down to my ratings finally coming good in these leagues. Algorithm one made a
20.5pts profit from 83 bets and algorithm two made a profit of 17.9pts from 92
bets. It’s easy to make profits when
your ratings are doing well and we’ve seen that this month I think.
Some of the ROI’s on the combined systems are just mad
and E2-E7 (the equivalent system to 7-22) managed to hit 14 winners from 24
bets with an average odds of 3.50. Not easy to do I think. A profit of 21.4pts
from 24 bets and a stunning result.
It’s hard to knock these systems after the month like
this but the question has to be….where the hell have they been all season?
I exchange emails with a few members regularly about
these systems and I read the blogs of those following and it’s safe to say that
those following probably had more faith in these Euro systems than I did. I
hadn’t lost faith completely but knowing how good I am at building ratings and
systems, I was disappointed with myself that I’d finally failed and I appeared
to had built a shit set of systems for these European leagues.
It’s still early days and the jury is still out but
possibly, we may have just been seeing a fair bit of variance so far this
season and although this month isn’t going to be repeated, it may be the case
that once we get to the end of the season, we conclude that overall, this
season hasn’t been a disaster for these systems. Of course, we could see a
couple of losing months to end the season and we deduce that these systems are rubbish,
they’ve fluked this amazing once in a lifetime month and overall, they have no
edge. We’ll see what happens.
Overall
Well, the month of March may not be as good as Feb but it’s
not bad as well I think. A profit of 260.2pts from 1,874 bets which is an ROI
of 13.9%.
Given the Est Systems didn’t have that great a month, I
get a feeling some reading this may be a little disappointed that they’ve not
caught some of the profits on the other systems but I think we need to continue
to think long-term at this game. I overlooked the New Systems this season and
with hindsight, it was maybe an error but then again, why jump in with both
feet on a set of new systems with no live results? Likewise, I know lots of
people are watching the Euro systems and hoping these prove the real deal for
going forward and this month is the first step on that journey I think.
I suspect EVERYONE is now sitting up and taking notice of
the STO systems and therefore, although some people may not be making the best
use of the service at the moment, these systems aren’t going anywhere. I’m
going to have to do a few tweaks to the service and some of the ratings and
systems need tweaks here and there I think and we’ll look at that this Summer. However,
the future looks pretty bright I think……..
