Over the years, I’ve tended to dread writing the monthly
reviews after a losing month but I’m actually looking forward to this review.
I’m not looking forward to discussing the results though and it has been a very
painful month for me and everyone else following the systems I suspect but as
I’ve seen over the years, we get these months now and again. The key is how the
systems respond to a month like this and historically, the systems have always
bounced back fairly quickly, so I’m not giving up hope yet but my confidence
has taken a massive knock this month. If my confidence has taken a knock, I
dread to think what new subscribers are feeling like but hopefully they keep a
level head.
OK, in terms of these monthly reviews this season, I
think as well as looking at the systems performance, I need to spend time
looking at the performance of the value ratings. Until this season, I’ve never
cared too much about the value ratings but I know a number of people are using
the ratings rather than the systems this season, so I need to review both ways
of following the service. Clearly, the systems rely on the ratings and it has
been a terrible month for the ratings and systems, so I can’t imagine anyone
has managed to do anything other than suffer a large loss this month but it
will be interesting to see how the value ratings have fared compared to the
systems.
Similar to previous seasons, I’ll review one set of
systems at a time. Due to the fact this has been such a horrendous month, I’m
going to look in depth at the results a little more than I would usually do but
I think this is fair given the performance this month. Don’t expect this level
of analysis every month but as I’ve said in emails to subscribers, my way of
coping with the size of loss I’ve had this month is to overanalyse things a
little. It doesn’t change the results, it won’t change what happens next but I really
need to be able to rationalise the loss for my own mental state. I’ve lost over
12% of what I’ve won in the past 3 seasons and I’ve lost over 25% of my betting
bank this season. Hence, this isn’t just a normal loss for me. This is a
substantial loss.
I think before getting onto the systems, it’s worth
discussing the results we have seen so far to date in all games I’ve rated so
far this season. I deliberately try to avoid discussing trends in the results
as at the end of the day, what we win or lose is all that matters to me and
anyone following and when things are going well, I don’t tend to write about
how easy it is to make money as the betting Gods are smiling on me. However, I would be doing myself a disservice
if I don’t comment on the season results to date.
I have rated just less than 190 games this season in
terms of finding selections. I wait until 6 games are played in each league although
this season, I dipped into League One just before this as a number teams hadn’t
played 6 games but some had. In these 188 games, what do the results look like?
Backing all Homes outright has created a 10% profit,
backing all Aways has created a 20% loss and backing all Draws have created a 20% loss. Simply
placing 1pt on every outcome of these games has created over a 25% loss this
season. Long-term, I know that the average loss is 5% for each of the 3 outcomes.
What does all this mean?
Well, given the vast majority of my bets are Away bets,
trying to turn a profit when all the Aways have lost 20% is very difficult. The
same comment goes for the draws. Trying to achieve a profit backing draws when
they are heavily loss making is nearly impossible. On the other hand, making a
profit should have been pretty easy if backing Home wins.
Keep these stats in mind when reading the performance of
the rating algorithms and the systems so far this season. :)
Here’s the review for each set of systems and rating
algorithms.
Est Systems
I think it’s probably easier to discuss the ratings first
and then we can look at the performance of the systems.
Here are the results for rating algorithms 1 and 2 for
this month:
Well, to say it has been a shocker of a month for both
rating algorithms is putting it mildly. Much of the loss has come from the
lowest value bets as these have the highest turnover but the highest value bets
haven’t covered themselves in any glory so far this season either. It’s difficult
to draw conclusions from such small samples and then splitting it down into 7
more groups makes it impossible to draw any meaningful conclusions but
basically, algorithms 1 and 2 have been rubbish this month.
One thing that does stand out is the impact that the draw
has had. Both algorithms have made reduced losses if using draw coverage and
the more draw coverage, the more the loss is reduced. However, even if using
draw coverage on every bet, a loss would have still been made and therefore, we
can’t pinpoint too many draws as the reason the algorithms lost this month.
Probably worth looking at the split between homes and
aways for both algorithms. Here’s the
results:
I think this picture goes a long way to explaining what
has happened this month. Algorithm 1 has had 6 winners from 46 away bets for a
loss of 23.3pts. Algorithm 2 has had 5 winners from 39 away bets for a loss of
19.1pts. With respective average odds of 3.98 and 3.87, we’d have expected
another 5-6 wins.
Homes paint a different picture though. Algorithm 1 has
had 11 from 21 homes winning for a profit of 3.9pts and Algorithm 2 has had 8 winners
from 15 home bets for a profit of 2.8pts. Therefore, Homes have performed in
line with expectations.
When you break it down like this, you can see that
ultimately, the problems this month stem from a small sample of Away bets.
We’re looking at 5-6 games becoming wins rather than draws/defeats and the
ratings would have made a profit on the month. I’ve discussed many times before
how this game is full of thin lines and I think this again points to this.
Is it likely to be the case that Algorithm 1 and 2 have
lost the edge that was so prevalent for the last 3 seasons over the first 39
and 46 away bets this season? I doubt it and if I look at the live results for
both algorithms for Away bets (even after this month), algorithm 1 has a profit
of 4.5% from 926 bets and algorithm 2 has a profit of 9% from 881 bets.
It can only be put down to variance and the fact that
neither algorithm has had enough time to show the true underlying edge this
season. I don’t believe that we can dismiss the
performance of 850+ live bets over the last 3 seasons for the exact same type
of bet and think that the edge is no longer there.
OK, I think that’s my conclusion regarding algorithms 1
and 2. The only issue this month appears to be a small sample of Aways and the
fact that Homes are in profit gives me confidence that the overall ratings
haven’t lost the edge overnight.
I think for most of us, the performance of the systems is
what we are really interested in for this month. Here are the results for this
month:
The first thing to point out is that the draw has had a
big impact on the overall performance of the systems. I pointed it out with the base ratings but
clearly, the teams who have appeared on more systems have been impacted by
draws. A 92.4pt loss if backing outright is reduced to a loss of only 22.1pts
if using AH0.5. That’s a significant shift in profitability.
The second thing to point out is the fact that as we move
up systems 6 to 7 to 8 etc. the ROI’s are getting worse. This goes against
everything we have seen over the past 3 seasons where the ROI improves as we
move up each system. However, it all down to the draw.
Take system 7-21 as an example. 4 winners from 20 bets
this month and a loss of 10.1pts. Shocking and I expect this system is in most
people’s portfolios. However, if you look the AH returns, AH0 was a loss of
2.9pts, AH0.25 is a profit as is AH0.50. The same is true for systems 7,8,7-21
thru to 8-22. Therefore, the higher combined systems have really been impacted
by draws.
So, I think my first conclusion is that if we look at the
overall month for the Est systems, although I wouldn’t say all of the month’s
losses is due to an above average number of draws, it definitely helps to
explain some of it.
I think if we look at the split of homes and aways
overall on the Est Systems, we’ll see where the issue lies this month with the
performance of the systems. Here are the results:
A loss of 100pts on the Aways from 191 bets and a profit
of 7.8pts from 71 home bets. I think we can see where the issue lies this month!
Again, if you look at the AH returns, any sort of draw
coverage on the Aways improved the results substantially and it’s hard to
ignore this. I can pinpoint a couple of
games in the last two weeks where I think we should have had winners
(Hartelpool last week lost a 90th min equaliser, Middlesboro threw a
2 goal lead) but at the end of the day, that’s the name of the game. In the
last two weekends, we’ve had Plymouth
(5.00), Partick (3.75), York (3.85) and all 3 played well, two of them took the
lead and couldn’t hold on. When so many appear on multiple systems (Partick and
York appeared 11 times), one goal for either team would have caused a 40pts
swing. Goals for two teams would be an 80pt swing.
I’ve discussed this lots of times on the blog and in
emails over the last 3 years but at the average odds we play on Aways, it
doesn’t take much to turn a profit into a loss. It takes a few things to go
wrong to create a 100pt loss from 191 bets but we achieved it this month. Does this mean the edge is gone and the
systems have turned into a pile of shit overnight? No, I don’t think it does.
Lastly, I think most following the systems are keen to
understand just how this loss compares to other losses the Est Systems have
suffered in the last few seasons.
I kept referring to Sep-11 as being very comparable to
this month but as long-term readers will be aware, in the first season of the
systems going live, the systems suffered very bad losses in Feb-11 and Apr-11.
Here’s the 4 months side by side and showing the P&L split between home and
aways:
There are so many ways to look at this I suspect and
others may disagree with me but I would say that based on the table, my ratings
performed slightly worse in Sep-11 than Sep-13. Backing outright, Sep-13 is the
worst month the systems have ever had but I think if you want to judge the
ratings, then the draw has had a bigger impact in Sep-13 than Sep-11. Funnily
enough, I think if you look back at Feb-11 and Apr-11, you can see that
although the losses are comparable if backing outright, as I pointed out at the
time, it was all down to draws in these months. Hence, I would say these were
much better months than Sep-11 and Sep-13.
One thing that does stand out in the table is the Away
performance this month though and clearly, it has been a freak set of results.
If the ratings were as bad as they have appeared to be this month, would we
expect the Homes to have made a profit?
I think that brings this monthly review of the Est
Systems to a close. In summary, a terrible month but I think it’s nowhere near
as bad as the results suggest. The Homes performed adequately but the Aways
have had their worst month ever by a long, long way. A 13% strike rate at
average odds of 3.73 is pretty tough to do if I was laying teams, so it’s a
nightmare month but at the end of the day, it has happened and I can’t change
it.
Having spent a fair bit of time playing with the data, I
can’t see anything too wrong with the selections this month. I picked out some
Aways that should have won above but I could also pick out some bets that we’ve
had this month which actually lost but with hindsight, we were on an amazing
value bet. The best example I can see is Macclesfield. The systems had them 11
times (a max bet) against Chester in a midweek game. Chester won 2-1.
Macclesfield have played 3 games since and won all 3. Chester have only 1 win
in 5 now (against Macclesfield) and have slipped to 2nd bottom in
the league. With hindsight, Macclesfield
was the best bet I gave this month by far. They lost.
There were 5 max bets this month. Partick (took the lead
and game finished 1-1), York (took the lead and game finished 1-1), Blackburn
(0-0 against Huddersfield but couldn’t score and yet, scored 3 in the first
half away from home on Saturday in their next game), Macclesfield (lost at
Chester but won next 3 games) and last, but not least, Newport, who won at odds
of 3.2. Newport won again on Saturday
and York managed to overcome the odds against Portsmouth and beat them 4-2.
With hindsight, they were 5 very, very good bets and we
staked 55pts on these and only hit 1 winner from 5. If my ratings can find
another 80 max bets like this over the rest of the season, I’ll be amazed if
the Est Systems have a poor season.
New Systems
Here’s the performance of both these rating algorithms
split by Home and Away bets.
Right, I think the first comment to make is the fact that
algorithms 3 and 4 have outperformed the first 2 algorithms by a long way this
month. Algorithm 2 is historically the strongest algorithm and therefore, it is
interesting that algorithm 3 and 4 have wiped the floor with algorithm 2 this
season.
Algorithm 3 managed to create a profit this month which
in a disaster of a month, is somewhat surprising. When you look at the
breakdown by Home/Away though, you’ll see it has been a special month for Home
bets on algorithm 3. 27 bets and 20 winners at an average odds of 2.38 to
create a profit of 22pts. Stunning results and for a small sample of bets, it
shows what can happen when things go well. Algorithm 4 wasn’t quite as strong
but still achieved a profit of 14.9pts from 35 home bets. I thought the home bets on the first two
algorithms did well but these results are much better.
When we look at the aways though, we see the same issues
as the first two algorithms. Massive losses. 18.2pts lost on algorithm 3 and
23.8pts on algorithm 4. The draw definitely impacted algorithm 4 more than algorithm
3 this month but I don’t think either algorithm was impacted as much as the
first two algorithms.
Overall, not a great month for algorithms 3 and 4 but
compared to algorithms 1 and 2, different class!
Here are the results of the New Systems (seems a weird
name now they aren’t new anymore!):
This is where the picture starts to get really confusing
to those who understand the ratings, including me! I have just came to a clear
conclusion that algorithms 3 and 4 have done much better than 1 and 2 but then
you look at the system results and think, WTF has happened here? 31-41 has made a profit amazingly (to make a
profit in a month where all outcomes achieved a 25% loss is absolutely stunning!)
but working down the combined systems, the losses soon mount quickly.
Another amazing stat is that system 32-42 only hit 3
winners in 20 bets! As the systems have filtered the bets, they have done an
amazing job at picking out losers! Take system 31. A profit in the month
(really can’t exaggerate how impressive this is) but then, system 32 takes
these bets, filters out all the winners and produces a loss of 14.6pts. Crazy
figures and although I’ve seen something like this before, not sure I’ve seen
it to this extent with the systems.
If you look at the AH returns, the draw clearly hasn’t
had a big impact at all on these systems and quite simply, the filtering
process just hasn’t worked at all. I’ve seen this happen once or twice before
(if you read the monthly reviews on the blog, you can see it yourself in some
months) but it’s annoying when it happens. The draw isn’t to blame on these
systems and therefore, you have to say it has been a worse month for the New
Systems than the Est Systems. Strange saying that considering algorithms
3&4 were better than 1&2 but that’s the way it has turned out.
I think the next picture paints the picture well for what
has happened on these systems. Here’s
the P&L split by Home and Aways:
Let’s deal with the positive results. One of the best
results for Homes that these systems have had to date. A 39.5% ROI on Homes is
amazing and although I’ve said it was an easy month to make profits on Homes,
it wasn’t that easy! Crazy return in a crazy month and for those people asking
themselves whether or not my ratings are working well, then I think this shows
there isn’t too much wrong.
On the other hand, the Away return is crazy for the
opposite reason. A 146pt loss from 298 bets is difficult to do I think in a
month! A 14.8% strike rate from 298 bets at an average odds of 3.78. A
brilliant performance for a laying system and if I was laying these, I would
doubt I think I could have a better month! Given I’m backing these, hard to
imagine a worse month than this.
In terms of how bad this is historically, all the New
Systems have only been around since last season although the algorithm has been
around for 2 previous seasons. Saying
all of that, even if I look at all of the backtested results, I can’t see
anything as bad as this or even close to this. Here are the 3 worst months
historically:
Both of the previous large losing months were in some way
down to the draw as you can see by the AH returns but this month, the draw had
very little impact. Therefore, I have to admit that this is the worst month
these systems have had. What does this mean? Well, it means we are into unprecedented
territory and for those of us who set betting banks based on historical
drawdowns, we are likely to see new historical drawdowns if we haven’t already
and therefore, our bank may come under pressure sooner rather than later.
Last season, these systems made over 100pts in a month
twice in the space of 6 months and therefore, if any set of systems can bounce
back quickly, these are maybe the systems. Then again, if any set of systems can
win and lose 100pts in a month, it’s never going to be a smooth journey and
until we see more data, I’m slightly worried we may have got sucked into these
systems too early. Last season, I didn’t follow these systems at all and
watched in envy as huge profits were made across the board and I’m not alone in
jumping in with both feet on these systems this season. Therefore, I am
slightly anxious having seen this size of loss in the first month but I’ll give
it another month and then decide what I want to do. If another big losing month
was to hit, bank preservation would possibly kick in and I may look to exit
these systems for a loss in my own betting portfolio but we’ll see what
happens.
I think that completes the review of the New Systems. A
really disappointing month for the systems but the ratings weren’t anywhere
near as bad as the systems are making out. It’s difficult though as the ratings
are only the lynchpin which the systems are based on but at the end of the day,
we need to the ratings to do well for us to make money long-term and algorithm
3 managed it this month. Hence, I would give algorithm 3 pass marks but
algorithm 4 was rubbish and the systems overall were a disaster. Roll on next
month.
Misc Systems
No ratings to judge here, so the system results are all that
matters (and they were terrible!). Here’s the results:
Given the losses on the previous systems, these systems
didn’t stand much of a chance! I would go as far to say that I’m really pleased
with the performance of TOX, STOY and STOZ as they lost less than most other
systems with a similar level of turnover, so they weren’t quite as bad as some
systems. I like the fact that the 3 systems I follow that aren’t rating based
still lost badly as it shows that no matter what I did this month, I don’t
think I could have avoided a loss.
6-32 has done the impossible and hit 4 winners from 25
bets at odds of 3.17! Horrible month and it will be a long way back for this
system this season. Break-even would be looking good I suspect.
21-31 and 6-21-31 have had nearly the same bets (apart from
1 which was a loser as well) and overall, it’s a horrible month. Not much more
I can add. I’ve already discussed all 3 algorithms in depth.
One thing I have touched on before on the blog and also
in various emails to subscribers is the performance of Home bets on systems
TOX, STOY and STOZ. Traditionally, these have been the strongest home bets my
systems have found and in a month where Homes have done well, I would hope
these bets have done well too! Here are the results of all 6 systems split
between Home and Away bets:
I’ll be honest and say that I’m disappointed with the
returns from the Homes on these systems this month. Yes, they achieved a profit
but compared to some of the algorithms and the returns on Homes, I would say these under achieved a little
this month. On the other hand, they
haven’t had as many Away bets as some systems this month and ultimately, that
has meant these systems haven’t had massive losses (it’s all relative when
you’re losing like my systems are this month).
System 6-32 has hit 1 winner from 17 away bets at average
odds of 3.67. All I can say is WOW! Again, if I was laying these, I wouldn’t
think anyone could achieve these sort of results, so to hit this on a backing
system is a disaster! The draw was a
little bit of a nuisance on these systems but nothing too bad compared to what
I’ve seen in the past.
In terms of historical results, these systems have had a
number of poor calendar months but overall, I would say this month has been the
worst. Here’s the results from the worst months:
We need to be careful here as the bet number over the
last 2 seasons is much higher than previously as the backtested results
contained some filters which I removed a few months after the systems went live
and I never went back to update the backtested results. However, if we ignore
the overall pts lost, we still have the ROI for each month and each betting
method.
Although a couple of months have had worse ROI’s, these
months were clearly impacted by draws. The AH0.5 loss this month is the highest
ever seen on these systems by a long, long way, so that’s as good an indication
as any that this month has been a terrible month IMO.
I think I get a little more comfort on these systems
given the fact I feel like they have been there and done it before and large
losses are not totally unknown in some months.
I guess I have more confidence in the Misc Systems than the New Systems
given the fact they have an extra season of live results but my own portfolio
is staked that way. I stake more on the Misc Systems than the New Systems, so
although my confidence may be better, my P&L is just as bad this month on
both sets of systems!
That will do as a review of these systems, don’t want to
write the same over and over again. Aways horrible, Homes good. End of.
Under/Over
Systems
I didn’t think I’d be saying this 4 weeks ago but these
were the best performing systems by far this month. Of course, this is probably
linked to the fact that it’s the only set of systems that I don’t have any
systems from within my own portfolio, so when things aren’t going your way,
it’s like another kick in the balls that these have made a profit.
Here’s the results:
A profit of 4.5pts from 27 bets may not make anyone rich
but compared to the other systems this month, it’s just great to see a profit
instead of a loss! Said it before a lot on the blog but I personally don’t like
these systems, I don’t believe there is that much of a long-term edge and I
think it’s probably a slow way to win or lose 1%-2% over the long-term. So far,
they have made an ROI of 3.9% over 863 live bets but compared to all my other
systems, this is poor and they were no better than break-even last season.
I found out last week someone is following these systems
this season and it has saved their month (gulp!) but I’m not sure I’d want to
be relying on these systems long-term to make a money from following my
ratings. Don’t think they’ll do much harm but not sure they’ll make much money either
but we’ll see how they do over the next few months.
Draw Systems
Before I get on with this review, I feel like I should
share my own thoughts on these systems. I’ve mentioned this on the blog before
and I had a decent exchange on Twitter with a subscriber about the systems but
for me personally, I haven’t enjoyed betting on the draw systems. I’m only
following a couple of systems and I’m only a couple of points down, so this
isn’t me speaking through my pocket but I’m not sure these systems are for me.
It’s a strange one as people may say it’s because of the
losing runs and the high average odds but that’s rubbish. The average odds for
my footie bets are around a similar price to the draw prices as I follow more
Aways than Homes in my portfolio and the Aways are usually decent odds, so it’s
not linked to average odds or expected losing runs.
I know this sounds a little bit irrational but I can’t
help but feel there is an element of luck involved in this on a game to game
basis. I actually feel the same way about the Under/Over bets and I sometimes
sit and watch a game where it has 0-0 and Under 2.5 goals written all over it
and then in the space of 5 mins, it’s 2-1 and the Unders bet is gone. I think I
feel the same way about the draw systems.
Now, I know it’s irrational as the backtested results
must have all of this factored in which means the ratings in the long-run don’t
really depend on luck in any game to make a profit but I think I’m maybe
scarred by the fact that my first decent bet on a draw was ruined by a 97th
minute goal to make it 1-0!
Anyway, that’s just my own thoughts but it’s based on
nothing but my own thoughts on placing the bets. These systems may end up being
the best systems we’ve ever seen and they make me a great profit long-term but
in the first month, I’ve been left a
little underwhelmed to say the least.
Bearing in mind what I said in the introduction around
the fact that backing draws in all the rated games so far created a 20% loss, I
don’t think these results are too bad at all! Here’s the results:
I don’t want to overanalyse such a small sample of bets
and therefore, not going to make too many comments. I would probably come
across as biased anyway given what I just wrote above and therefore, let’s give
these systems a little more time to see how things pan out.
If the late goal that occurred in the month had not
happened, would have basically been a break-even month to kick off their first
live month and that would have been a fair result. Not sure the current results
are a true representation of the month for these systems but we’ll learn more
as the season goes on.
Ok, I think that’s enough of a review for a single month.
Some people analyse a season in less words than I’ve analysed a month! I did
start reducing the length of the reviews as I worked through this as there is
only so many times I can tell you that Homes had a good month and Aways had
their worst month ever. Could have written the review in 5 mins. ;)
I’m not sure about any of you reading but I personally
feel much better about the month we’ve just encountered. Yes, it’s the largest
monthly loss I’ve ever suffered personally from betting, yes, it’s the worst
month the service has ever had, yes, anyone following the systems this month
lost a massive amount of money but at the end of the day, when you are backing
mostly Aways where all Aways are heavily loss making, it is always going to
make things appear worse than they are in reality.
We’ll see what happens next month and hopefully we see a
bounce back from the Away bets next month to correct the P&Ls of many of
these systems!
