As the title suggests, the systems took another step
forward this weekend and the service is now approaching break-even for the
season although I appreciate the gap between the best P&L and worst P&L
for subscribers could be quite substantial. However, for the umpteenth time
this season, the best bets have let the systems down and we had the top 4 Home
bets all drawing but two of them lost 1-0 leads late on and it’s typical of the
way the season has gone to date. The biggest bet of the weekend lost a 1-0 and
2-1 lead and eventually finished up losing 3-2. When you put all these 5 games
together, to say that I’m amazed to be posting the figures below is an
understatement.
The weekend was saved by a couple of wins for a Crewe and
Tranmere. Both were 6.00+ when I gave the bets and they were picked out by all
4 algorithms which shows how overpriced they were this weekend. Of course, as I
say all the time, finding value in a big priced away is one thing, finding a
winner is another thing but this weekend, both teams managed to win. This won’t happen too often but on a weekend
when nothing seemed to go right for the systems again, I’m not complaining.
The other highlight this weekend was the Draw systems.
The top two draws both finished in draws and 3 of the top 4 draws were
successful. I’ve been quite harsh on these systems so far this season but it
was nice to see the systems rewarded for their consistency on Saturday. I’ve
complained plenty about the luck on the other systems this season but the Draw
systems haven’t had much luck go their way either and therefore, to see these
systems in profit overall after a very tricky start this season is amazing.
Overall, I reckon about 25% of the systems are in profit
now this season which isn’t bad considering it was 0% at the end of last month
although I have to again highlight algorithm 3 (system 31). This is becoming a
common theme on the blog but this is the best rating algorithm I’ve ever seen and
I was astonished it made a tiny profit last month in a very difficult month. It
has started this month on fire and is something like 20pts in profit this
season already which is amazing considering it has suffered the same amount of
bad luck as the other systems! It had Accrington on Saturday for example which
wasn’t a popular pick but they lost a late goal to draw 1-1 at odds of 5.00.
Hence, it is maybe suffering more bad luck than the other systems and is still
making profits!
Anyway, it’s another step forward and after a horrible
midweek to start the month (who can forget Ipswich?), things have picked up and
the last 3 sets of fixtures have seen nice profits made. Still a long way to go
this month but hopefully now my ratings have settled down, things will continue
to improve. We’ll see what happens.
No midweek bets this weekend, so next results update will
be after next weekend.
Est Systems
24 winners from 67 bets and a profit of 29pts. Both
algorithms did brilliant but the filtering of the systems didn’t work at all
(which is not the first time I’ve said that this season!). System 6 made a
profit of 9.9pts from 18 bets and system 21 made a profit of 14.2pts from 16
bets. Great returns but it didn’t make its way down to systems 7,8 or 22
unfortunately.
System 6-21 made a profit of 10.7pts from 15 bets but the
other combined systems did a great job of filtering out the winners!
Overall, it’s hard to knock the performance of the
systems but the luck factor this season is really impacting the more selective
systems. If you are only having 100 bets a season, then to suffer the luck I’ve
had this season means I suspect it will be very difficult for the higher
combined systems to get near the historical returns unless we start getting
some breaks on these systems.
New Systems
The draw was a real issue on these systems although the
story is similar to the Est Systems whereby the higher systems filtered out the
winners again. An overall profit of 22.8pts from 123 bets is a decent return
but when you see the base ratings made 10.4pts profit on each algorithm from 22
bets each, you have to wonder how more profits weren’t made on more systems.
The draw was to blame I’m afraid and the draw really impacted these systems.
Things just don’t seem to be able to click this season
like the last few seasons but it’s early days and when the systems click,
profits can be made quickly. Hopefully this happens sooner rather than later.
Misc Systems
A great return here this weekend. A profit of 39.4pts
from 73 bets. System 21-31 was the star with a profit of 14.2pts from 16 bets.
6-32 made a loss which again is a function of the fact 32 filtered out the
winners from system 31 unfortunately. STOZ also underperformed this weekend
considering system 31 had a great weekend. Unfortunately, the SGM didn’t agree
with Tranmere as a bet based on the historical data and results. Shame really
as it stopped the 3 SGM systems from having a really good weekend like some of
the other systems.
Draw Systems
This is more like it. 19 winners from 27 bets and a
profit of 39.22pts. Interestingly, one of the other draws was in a game where I
got a late winner on another system, so I guess it could have been slightly
better on these systems.
This is the first week I’ve backed the draws and actually
thought that I was backing something I thought I would win and so it proved. Of
course, it could have ended up with both losing but as I said before on the
blog, for me, it’s about being able to see I’m getting value. Probably helped
that Skeeve picked the draw in one of the games, so that at least showed my
ratings weren’t too bad and I think it’s the first time I’ve actually thought
that these systems were half decent this season!
Long way to go though but I’m more interested in these
systems and hopefully they can build on this. I appreciate the losing runs are
longer and with no short prices, it’s not like following another system which
has a mix of Homes and Aways as even when the Aways are being volatile, the
Homes can steady the ship.
Under-Over
Systems
I was surprised there weren't more bets this weekend but
every possible bet that was thrown up was below minimum odds apart from 2.
Thankfully, the 2 that qualified were both winners, so it helps to recoup some
of the losses this month. A profit of 2.12pts from 2pts staked.
Overall, another really good update although I suspect a
number of subscribers are reading this and wondering “what if”. The biggest bets
didn’t cover themselves in glory but on the whole, they were very unlucky again
and if we keep knocking on the door, surely it will open sooner rather than
later.
A profit of 132pts from 292pts staked.
No comments:
Post a Comment