Going to keep
this update fairly short as I need to continue working on the ratings for the
weekend games. Got slightly fed up doing the ratings, so thought I’d spend an
hour updating the results sheets and writing a quick blog post on the recent
results.
This post
covers the results of the last two weekend’s and the Boxing Day games. A lot of
games in a short period of time and it’s not over yet with the weekend games
followed by the games on New Year’s Day and then the lower leagues are in
action again at the weekend after the New Year’s Day games. Once we get this
weekend out of the way, this draws the month to a close, so I can get the
monthly review updated early next week and we can start the New Year with
everything updated to the end of December.
In terms of
recent results, there has been a slight correction taking place in the sense
the systems which struggled early season have been doing better and the systems
which started the season well have struggled a little. The Euro systems have
followed a similar pattern to last season in many ways and the draw has killed
these systems over the last few weeks. This is the second season I have
trialled a couple of Euro rating algorithms and the early promise this season
has evaporated again and I have zero confidence in these systems having any
form of edge. I’ve actually got zero confidence in me being able to find an
edge using a rating algorithm across the 4 Euro leagues and quite simply, the
ratings don’t seem to work when they go live.
The draw
systems were doing OK until Boxing Day and then boom, a huge chunk of the profits
this month gone in one fell swoop. It’s interesting that the systems which
helped my portfolio out earlier this season have hit the skids at the same time
when my other systems have started picking up profits. I guess that’s the
beauty of following a well-diversified portfolio of systems and at the end of
the day, this is why I’m always looking for more systems or more ways to find
an edge. The draw systems have really helped me this season and when I think
back to why I built these systems, it was to provide more diversification to
the TFA system portfolio (as well as my own portfolio). Hence, I’m always
trying to keep one step ahead and when you see the results of the Est Systems
this season, you can see why I wanted to build another set of systems and not
just rely on these systems. :)
I’m still keen
to find an edge in the Euro leagues and maybe I can look at something totally
different to what I do in the UK leagues but this brings a great deal of risk
and I need to question whether or not it’s worth it. Trialling systems may not
cost me too much in monetary terms but in terms of time and effort, running two
Euro rating algorithms alongside all my UK ratings and systems is hard work.
Anyway, now is not the time to draw too many conclusions and to be fair, the
Euro systems were badly affected by draws last season too, so maybe everything
points towards draw systems for these leagues? We’ll see what happens over the
remainder of the season.
Here’s the update
for all the systems.
Est Systems
A profit of
22.09pts from 131 bets. A decent return although the higher combined systems
have again been struggling for winners. Mirrors the way the season has gone to
date and trying to pinpoint the very best bets on these algorithms have been
difficult if using the systems to narrow the bets down. Interestingly, the
higher TFA value rated bets have been a much better indicator to the best bets
on these systems, so definitely something to explore for next season I think.
New Systems
A profit of
62.72pts from 220 bets. This is much more like it from these systems and builds
on the decent start to the month these systems had. Really pleasing to see the
higher combined systems do well and particularly pleasing to see system 31-42
do well since I know it’s a very popular system this season amongst
subscribers. These systems do seem to have the ability to string together a really
good run of results and after 87pts in September, they are now on course for
the 3rd winning month in a row (as long as the weekend isn’t a
disaster!).
Misc Systems
A profit of
15.53pts from 124 bets. I sort of feel like these systems are waiting to burst
into life and go on the sort of run we saw last season but so far, it hasn’t
happened. They are managing to grind out results and I guess after the start
this season, I’m not going to knock any profit but I do feel like these systems
have underperformed a little over the last few weeks. When you see the returns
on the New Systems, you can see what is possible but these systems just haven’t
clicked so far. Long way to go this season and it’s another small step forward.
Draw Systems
A really
strange update here as before Boxing Day, things were looking amazing but
Boxing Day was a disaster. Overall, a profit of 24.64pts from 171 bets. Again,
I’m not going to knock this profit and it’s a great return but they have had one
of the best days of the season followed immediately by one of the worst days of
the season and that always hurts. Interestingly, reverse these days around and
I’d be saying how amazing these returns are I suspect but that’s the way our
minds work I think.
Euro Systems
Ouch! 74.2pts
loss from 188 bets. Interestingly, if backing AH0.5, a profit of 6.7pts. That’s
all you need to know about what has gone on here. The draw is a pest at times
and for an update like this, if it wasn’t for the fact I track the returns for
AH betting, I would be saying how bad these results are. Don’t get me wrong,
the results are bad but when so many games are draws, I can sort of live with
this. The problem is that it happens too often with these Euro systems and it
erodes any edge the systems could have. It happened last season too where the
Asian Handicap returns were better than the outright returns and the same is
now true this season. Still early days and a long way to go but if the draw
remains as much of a pest as this, these systems aren’t going to make any
profit.
Under-Over Systems
The continual
trickle of losses continue on these systems. A loss of 3.64pts from 12 bets.
They are on course for a second losing season as I would have predicted at the outset
this season and these systems really are a waste of time! I expect these will
be retired at the end of the season.
Overall, 47.14pts
profit from 846 bets. 5.5% ROI. I would be disappointed if people couldn’t beat
this return over this period considering the large loss the Euro’s made. Take
away these bets and the results were much better overall, so people should have
done better I hope.
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