Going to try to keep this review a little shorter than
last month which shouldn’t be too difficult. ;)
It felt like it has been a very long month even though
it’s the shortest month of the season. I think the feeling comes from the fact
the last 3 weeks of January were torture and the first few weeks this month
felt just as bad and therefore, it has been a really tough time mentally again.
However, things turned in the last week of the month and now I’ve reached the
end of the month, it feels like a bit of a relief to have had a decent month.
Looking at the results over the last few months together
now, apart from the first two months this season, the last 4 months have been
very solid and therefore, the systems have steadied the ship after the
nightmare start this season. I expect we’ll all view the first few weeks of
bets for the season differently after what happened this season but we can deal
with this in the Summer.
Here’s the monthly review.
Est Systems
Here’s the results for algorithm one:
A return of 6.5pts from 66 bets. An ROI of 9.9%. A really
solid month for this algorithm. Aways made 6.9pts whereas Homes made a small
loss.
The results by value bands are interesting. For the
Aways, the higher bands did well as usual and there was another fairly large
loss in the lowest band. The Homes showed the complete opposite with all the
profits in the low value bands with losses in the larger bands.
The results for algorithm two:
A return of 4.5pts from 41 bets. An ROI of 11%. Similar
comments to the first algorithm and a solid profit this month. Aways did really
well and made 7.2pts whereas Homes lost 2.7pts.
The low value Away bets again lost month although the
5%-10% band seemed to do really well. As always, hard to draw conclusions from
very small samples and I did a detailed post on the value bands recently. I’ll
update the value bands performance at the end of the season.
Here’s the results of the Est Systems for this month:
A solid month this month for these systems and a large
chunk of the losses recouped. Not enough profit to wipe out the season losses
but another month like this and these systems could be in profit this season.
That would be some achievement considering the first 2 months of losses!
A profit of 44.6pts from 225 bets. An ROI of 19.8%.
10 of the 11 systems made a profit. Not surprised to see
that system 8-22 was the system that made a loss. The system has struggled all
season and therefore, this trend continues even in a month when all other
systems made a profit.
The filtering worked fairly well this month which is a
change compared to most of the season. 8-22 is the only system whereby the
filtering didn’t work.
The combined systems also had a decent month and that
makes a change too.
Overall, a good month and a month that has been long
overdue. How I’d like to see another good month next season and for these systems
to get back to break-even but I’m just glad they have taken a step forward
after the season they have had so far!
New Systems
Here’s the results from algorithm 3:
A stunning month for algorithm three after a
disappointing losing month last month. A profit of 24.3pts from 82 bets. Homes
made 13.4pts with Aways making 11pts. The best month for this algorithm since
Mar-13.
The low value away bets had a very bad month but the
other away bets did well. The Homes did well in the highest band with 1 winner
from 3 but as always, difficult to draw conclusions from the sample sizes.
Algorithm 4 results:
A great month for this algorithm too with a profit of
11.9pts from 100 bets. Homes made 6.1pts from only 34 bets and Aways made
5.8pts from 66 bets.
We can see the issue this algorithm had with the low
value away bets and a loss of 12.6pts from 33 bets. Again, everything continues
to point to these low value bets (<5%) pulling down the returns of the
algorithms and the systems and it has been this way for most of the season.
Opposite picture on the Homes though where the low value bets did well.
Here’s the results for the New Systems this month:
I’ll start with the positives!
A profit of 80.7pts from 415 bets with an ROI of 19.4%. A
really good month and not far off the 100pt profit month that these systems
seem to regularly manage to achieve.
The filtering worked well on algorithm 4 whereby system
42 improved on system 41 but it has gone really badly wrong on algorithm 3.
System 31 did amazingly well but system 32 didn’t do
quite as well. However, the real issue lies with system 33 and it has taken the
bets on system 32 and filtered out the winners mainly. 8 bets on system 33 and
a loss of 3.1pts.
This impacted the combined systems with 33-41 and 33-42
having a losing month which is very disappointing. Again, I’m not totally
surprised as these systems have struggled all season and when a month like this
occurs and these 2 systems lose money, you know they are not going to have a
good season!
The positive has to be the returns on system 31-42 as I
know it’s a very popular system and it has struggled most of the season but it
has finally taken a step forward this month.
Overall, a really good month for these systems although
if system 33-41 and system 33-42 had done better, the systems would have easily
smashed the 100pts+ profit mark this month.
Misc Systems
Here’s the results for this month:
At an overall level, a profit of 20.7pts from 188 bets
would have to go down as a decent month. 5 of the 6 systems in profit and therefore,
it’s hard to be too critical.
However, going into this season, system STOZ was probably
the system I was most confident about after the last two seasons but for
whatever reason, this system is really, really struggling! No surprise to see
it make a loss this month when the other 5 systems had much better months, it’s
been this way all season.
I think the other disappointing thing with these systems
in total this month is that the Home bets made a loss again. Again, going into
this season, the Home bets on TOX, STOY and STOZ were without a doubt my
strongest home bets but this season, they just haven’t clicked on these systems
at all.
I keep saying it every month but this season looks
nothing like previous seasons and many of the trends coming into this season
haven’t been mirrored this season.
Overall, a good month but not a spectacular month but it
helps to build on the profits over the last few months.
Draw Systems
I’m starting to love these systems! Here’s the results for this month:
Only thing I can say I think is WOW! 86.8pts profit from
307 bets. An ROI of 28.3%.
The power of the combined systems can be seen this month.
System D6 was basically break-even but the combined systems benefited from
being cross referred with system D1. If I was being critical, it’s slightly
annoying that the highest two combined systems filtered out all the profits but
as always, with these very small sample sizes for the higher combined systems,
anything can happen I suspect.
Apart from the blip in the first month of the season (and
to be fair, they were unlucky with late goals), these systems have made good
profits consistently and a few of these combined systems must be in the running
for TFA system of the season. Long way to go and we’ll see what the next few
months bring but my confidence in these systems have grown almost every week
since the end of the first month and it’s not unrealistic to think that going
into next season, I may have more confidence in the draw systems than any other
systems! Didn’t think I’d be saying that 12 months ago.
Euro Systems
Here’s the results this month:
Another solid month for these systems with a profit of
22.2pts from 249 bets. An ROI of 8.9%.
Interestingly, E3 seemed to be very selective this month
and this had a knock-on effect on E3-E6 and E3-E7. However, E3 did hit 2
winners from 3 and therefore, I can’t really complain.
I keep the saying the same every month but it’s difficult
to draw conclusions with these Euro bets as there is so much of the season to
go for these bets compared to the UK bets and therefore, I don’t want to jump
to the conclusion that I have developed some ratings that work in the Euro
leagues until we see many more bets. In addition, I was burnt last season from
thinking I may have got something to work in these leagues, so things can turn
quickly.
So far, 5 months of results, 4 months of profits and my confidence
builds very slowly in these systems but happy to get to the end of the season
and try to see what the results look like.
Under-Over
Systems
Here’s the results:
An absolute nothing month really. Break-even from 26
bets. Based on this season so far, that’s a good result for these systems!
Overall
A profit of 255pts from 1,410 bets. An ROI of 18.1%.
A badly needed month if I’m honest and this month helps
to bring an air of respectability to the results of the service this
season. I’ll need a few more months like
this for this season to be anything other than disappointing for me personally
but seeing so many systems in profit now and seeing the overall system results
gives me a little bit of satisfaction. Of course, I would have wished for the
profits to be spread more evenly across systems and seeing the draw systems do
quite as well as this in their debut season is slightly frustrating but
thinking longer-term, these systems are going to be a useful addition to my
portfolio of systems which is what I hoped when I set out developing the draw
systems.
We’re now 2/3 of the way through the season now. The
first third was very disappointing and largely unprofitable; the second third
has been much better and has been very profitable. The last third will
determine how this season is remembered……
