There was an interesting discussion in the TFA forum today regarding which systems to follow for the remainder of the season.
It turned into a discussion where I was posting thoughts that I was having and as sometimes happens, I end up just writing and speaking to myself on the thread and coming to a conclusion that I already knew was the right answer before I started!
Rowan from http://theportfolioinvestor.blogspot.com/ has recently switched from following system 8 to following system 8-22. Simply, 8-22 is a stronger system and has outperformed the rest of my systems this season but he had previously been following system 8. Obviously, when you switch systems, you can guarantee that the new system will start badly and the old system will go on a good run!
The weekend past wasn't quite as bad as that but system 8 made a nice profit at the weekend and system 8-22 had no bets.
I brought up the fact that I didn't think Accrington were any better bet than Yeovil were at the weekend based on my ratings and therefore, I don't think that missing out Yeovil (3/1 winner) and backing Accrington this midweek is a good strategy.
However, when you look at the returns this season, it's hard to not argue that system 8-22 is a much better system than system 8 and therefore, Accrington must be better value than Yeovil were (even though Yeovil won). Hence, Rowan is correct to only follow system 8-22 if he wants to follow the strongest bets that I can find.
For the record, system 8 has an ROI of around 16% this season and system 8-22 has an ROI of around 35% this season. Hence, there is no denying that system 8-22 is the stronger system and therefore, Accrington must be a better value bet than Yeovil were at the weekend.
As it turns out, Accrington are the only team appearing on system 8 and system 8-22 this midweek, so my whole midweek will be determined by the result in this game. Fingers crossed they can sneak a win.
Below are the bets for tomorrow for all the systems.
The Football Analyst Bets for 22nd March
System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/03/2010 League 2 Aldershot v Barnet Barnet 4.75 B365
22/03/2010 League 2 Crewe v Accrington Accrington 3.30 Pinnacle
22/03/2010 League 2 Port Vale v Hereford Port Vale 1.91 Ladbrokes
22/03/2010 League 2 Torquay v Cheltenham Torquay 1.75 Tote
22/03/2010 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Gateshead Gateshead 3.75 Skybet
System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/03/2010 League 2 Crewe v Accrington Accrington 3.30 Pinnacle
22/03/2010 League 2 Torquay v Cheltenham Torquay 1.75 Tote
System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/03/2010 League 2 Crewe v Accrington Accrington 3.30 Pinnacle
System 9
None
System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/03/2010 League 2 Burton v Stevanage Stevanage 2.40 Corals
22/03/2010 League 2 Crewe v Accrington Accrington 3.30 Pinnacle
22/03/2010 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Gateshead Gateshead 3.75 Skybet
22/03/2010 Bsq Prem Histon v Mansfield Mansfield 2.19 Pinnacle
System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/03/2010 League 2 Burton v Stevanage Stevanage 2.40 Corals
22/03/2010 League 2 Crewe v Accrington Accrington 3.30 Pinnacle
22/03/2010 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Gateshead Gateshead 3.75 Skybet
22/03/2010 Bsq Prem Histon v Mansfield Mansfield 2.19 Pinnacle
System 23
None
System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/03/2010 League 2 Crewe v Accrington Accrington 3.30 Pinnacle
22/03/2010 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Gateshead Gateshead 3.75 Skybet
System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/03/2010 League 2 Crewe v Accrington Accrington 3.30 Pinnacle
22/03/2010 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Gateshead Gateshead 3.75 Skybet
System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/03/2010 League 2 Crewe v Accrington Accrington 3.30 Pinnacle
System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/03/2010 League 2 Crewe v Accrington Accrington 3.30 Pinnacle
System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/03/2010 League 2 Crewe v Accrington Accrington 3.30 Pinnacle
System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/03/2010 League 2 Crewe v Accrington Accrington 3.30 Pinnacle
System 16
None
System 17
Bet 1
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
22/03/2010 League 2 Burton v Stevanage Stevanage 2.38
22/03/2010 League 2 Crewe v Accrington Accrington 3.25
22/03/2010 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Gateshead Gateshead 3.75
22/03/2010 Bsq Prem Histon v Mansfield Mansfield 2.10 Skybet
Any 2,3, and all 4 = 11 Bets
System 18
None
System 19
None
System 20
None
Hi Graeme,
ReplyDeleteSuddenly I feel a touch more confident that I made the right decision! (lol).
Don't suppose we'll know one way or t'other tonight, though.
Hope the ratings have a good night for you,
Rowan
Hi Graeme,
ReplyDeleteNice to see you back blogging.
I've put up a link on my blog and would appreciate if you could return the favour.
http://markiverson-professionalsportstrader.blogspot.com/
All the best,
Mark
Hi Rowan.
ReplyDeleteI chuckled when I saw the title of your post last night.
It made no difference which system anyone followed last night Rowan as the dreaded draw came back to bite us on the bottom with Accrington. I can't complain too much as the draw % has been fairly steady this month which has ensured we've managed to make profits.
You will have seen Chris's comment in the TFA forum this morning about DNB/DC analysis and it is something I'm going to be looking at when I get the time. For me personally, I don't see an issue with what has happened over the last few months with lots of draws but if I could find a way to make this profitable journey any smoother, I'll definitely investigate it.
Some of the systems do seem to hit a very high % of draws when backing away teams at nice odds and it may well be that DNB/DC can help smooth the P&l a little and maybe not give away too much profit. With the number of draws over the past few months, it would no doubt increase the profits but we can't draw conclusions on 3 months of results going against us. (excuse the pun!)
I probably won't mention it when I post the results for last night today but it appears that Accrington were robbed last night. They scored a goal that crossed the line but the ref and linesman both missed it and that was our 23/10 winner gone. Actually, I probably will mention it as it's fact. The BBC said so!
Cheers,
Graeme
Hi Mark.
ReplyDeleteLink added mate. As you know, I used to read your blog religiously when I had my old blog but I remember you stopped blogging for a while too. I stumbled across your blog again when I saw you were doing your own footie ratings via Cassini's blog. I found that fairly interesting for obvious reasons!
As for me being back blogging, I've deliberately kept a low profile with the blog until I saw how the season went. Didn't fancy writing a blog like this and having lots of followers as I have learnt a lot this season as time has progressed. Always easier to learn from mistakes in front of a small audience rather than being watched by hundreds!
Cheers,
Graeme
What is this? I don't understand how you could follow so many bets? How much do you charge?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Hi Anonymous. I'll answer your question in my blog post tonight when I post up the weekend bets mate.
ReplyDeleteGraeme