Another busy weekend with 17 different games this weekend.
One game stands out this weekend as a clear value bet and appears on every system which doesn't happen too often. Yeovil are the team and at 2/1, they are clear value against Hartlepool based on the recent form of both teams.
I've had a quick look at Fink Tank out of curiosity and they make Yeovil more likely to win this game than Hartlepool. Hence, 2/1 seems decent and won't last I suspect.
Looking quickly, Hartlepool have lost their last couple of games at home and have no wins in their last 4. They drew 1-1 last time out to stop the rot but looking at the stats, Swindon dominated the game with more than twice the number of shots on goal.
On the other hand, Yeovil have won 3 of their last 4 games and in the defeat, they easily beat Bristol Rovers on shots but just couldn't score. They've won their last 2 away games, scoring 8 goals and beating teams in the top half of the table.
In their last 6 away games at bottom half sides, they've won 3, drew 2 and lost 1.
It should be fairly close between these two but my ratings favour Yeovil. Hence, at 2/1, it's an obvious value pick which explains why it appears on so many systems.
I think it's interesting when I look at some games and why the ratings have found value but I try my best to not look as being honest, I struggle to justify most of the bets!
The Football Analyst Bets for 8th-10th April
System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
08/04/2011 League 2 Macclesfield v Accrington Accrington 2.40 Tote
09/04/2011 Championship Derby v Coventry Coventry 3.44 Pinnacle
09/04/2011 Championship Ipswich v C Palace Ipswich 1.82 Pinnacle
09/04/2011 Championship Swansea v Norwich Swansea 2.25 SJ
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67 WH
09/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Exeter Exeter 3.00 Blue Sq
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 League 1 Oldham v Charlton Oldham 2.50 SJ
09/04/2011 League 2 Cheltenham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.50 Tote
09/04/2011 Premiership Bolton v West Ham Bolton 2.25 VC
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.80 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Hibs Hibs 3.20 Corals
09/04/2011 Bsq Prem Gateshead v Histon Gateshead 1.57 WH
10/04/2011 Premiership Aston Villa v Newcastle Newcastle 4.72 Pinnacle
System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
08/04/2011 League 2 Macclesfield v Accrington Accrington 2.40 Tote
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67 WH
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.80 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Hibs Hibs 3.20 Corals
10/04/2011 Premiership Aston Villa v Newcastle Newcastle 4.72 Pinnacle
System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67 WH
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.80 Ladbrokes
System 9
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67 WH
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.80 Ladbrokes
System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 Championship Swansea v Norwich Swansea 2.25 SJ
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67 WH
09/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Exeter Exeter 3.00 Blue Sq
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 League 2 Cheltenham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.50 Tote
09/04/2011 League 2 Lincoln v Gillingham Gillingham 2.25 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 League 2 Northampton v Bury Bury 2.50 Corals
09/04/2011 League 2 Port Vale v Southend Port Vale 2.05 WH
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.80 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Hibs Hibs 3.20 Corals
System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Hibs Hibs 3.20 Corals
System 23
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Hibs Hibs 3.20 Corals
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67 WH
09/04/2011 League 1 Bristol Rovers v Exeter Exeter 3.00 Blue Sq
09/04/2011 League 2 Cheltenham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.50 Tote
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 Championship Swansea v Norwich Swansea 2.25 SJ
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.80 Ladbrokes
System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Hibs Hibs 3.20 Corals
System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Hibs Hibs 3.20 Corals
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67 WH
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.80 Ladbrokes
System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Hibs Hibs 3.20 Corals
System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67 WH
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.80 Ladbrokes
System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 3.00 Ladbrokes
System 16
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 2.75
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.73
09/04/2011 League 1 Oldham v Charlton Oldham 2.50
09/04/2011 Premiership Bolton v West Ham Bolton 2.25 Corals
Any 3,4 and all 5 = 16 Bets
System 17
None
System 18
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 2.75
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.73 Corals
Any 2 and all 3 = 4 Bets
System 19
Date League Game Selection Odds Bookies
09/04/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Hibs Hibs 3.20
09/04/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Tranmere Bournemouth 1.67
09/04/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Yeovil Yeovil 2.75
09/04/2011 Premiership Tottenham v Stoke Tottenham 1.73 Corals
Any 2,3 and all 4 = 11 Bets
System 20
None
Hi G,
ReplyDeleteI've only just come across this having seen it mentioned over at SBC. No-one can accuse you of being work shy can they? Where do you find the time? I hope you get to where you want with this. Just one thing I want to ask about your ratings (and apologies in advance if you've covered this in a previous post), but do you pay any attention to previous matches between any two given sides?
Good luck with TFA,
Mick
Hi Mick.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure where I find the time or energy to do this at times mate but as you say, I can't be accused of being work-shy!
After I stopped TFA, I wanted a new project to get my teeth into and I wanted a break away from the racing. Football was an obvious thing to look at and it started from there. How I've ended up playing these leagues I'm not too sure as I started off with looking at Euro leagues as my main thing and the other leagues as a sideline but my methodology seems to work better in the English leagues.
Interestingly, previous results between the teams is one variable in the model but looking at the leagues I'm playing in and the historical data, I couldn't find a direct relationship at all between the results and the historical results. I still have the variable in the model but it actually carries a tiny negative weight. Hence, the better the record, the more it favours the other team but as I say, it really makes no difference if I set this to zero or not as it doesn't carry much weight.
This is different to what I found when I was looking at the top European leagues. I could see a definite link between historical results and the results in games. Italy was where it was at the highest if I remember rightly and there are some teams there who appear to have no chance of beating teams who have a great record against them historically. You could often get some nice bets just using this as a way to narrow down games!
Not sure where this footie is going tbh as trying to maintain the workload for footie is as bad as TFA (if not worse!). I didn't mean it to get like this but unfortunately, there are little shortcuts to this I think. Then again, there tends to be no shortcuts for hard work!
The SBC are a massive jinx to me I think. They reported back on my results for the racing and then my P&L dropped off a cliff (never to recover!) and the First Look at TFA last Friday resulted in the systems hitting no winners on Saturday from 57 bets. You couldn't make it up! lol
Hopefully it's just a blip though. ;)
Graeme