I’ll deal with each day at a time and take it from there for the overall results for the established systems and the new systems. My next piece of work is to write a monthly review for December and the review will pick up what has happened for each system. So, I’ll try to keep this post quite high level.
30/12/11
Carlisle were the big bet on both algorithms here. At odds of 4/1 against Huddersfield, it would have been a massive win for the systems but although they took the lead, the game finished 1-1.
Algorithm one had 2 bets, one winner and one draw. Algorithm two had 1 bet and 1 draw. Algorithm three had bets, one winner, one draw and one loser.
The established systems lost 3.75pts for H/A betting and made a profit of 0.6pts profit for DNB betting.
The new systems lost 8.75pts for H/A betting and a loss of 0.4pts for DNB betting.
31/12/11
Another frustrating day for the systems. Wigan and Rochdale were the two big away bets and both games finished in draws. The two big home games were Bristol Rovers (got hammered from Crewe!) and Colchester (easily beat Exeter). Overall, due to the away draws again, it was a tough day for H/A betting.
Algorithm one had 9 bets, 3 winners, 3 draws and 3 losers. Algorithm two had 7 bets, 2 winners, 3 draws and 2 losers. Algorithm three had 5 bets, 1 winner, 1 draw and 3 losers.
The established systems made a 13.27pts loss for H/A betting and a loss of 4.25pts for DNB.
The new systems made a loss of 14.35pts for H/A betting and a loss of 8.93pts for DNB.
Again, you can see the impact of the draws here with DNB betting outperforming H/A betting again.
01/01/12
A massive day for the systems with two very strong away bets appearing on multiple systems. Everton and Gateshead were the teams and thankfully, although both games looked like finished 0-0 for most of the game, both the bets managed to score late goals to sneak a win.
Algorithm one had 2 bets, 2 winners. Algorithm two had 2 bets, 2 winners. Algorithm three had 1 bets, 1 winner.
The established systems made a profit of 33.65pts for H/A betting and a profit of 18.30pts for DNB betting.
The new systems made a profit of 20.8pts for H/A betting and a profit of 11.24pts for DNB betting.
A great day to start 2012 and both sets of systems off to a flyer.
02/01/12
A very busy day with a whole host of bets on most systems!
Algorithm one had 19 bets. There were only 5 winners along with 4 draws and 10 losers. Thankfully, the winners were at decent odds, so it isn’t quite as bad as it looks!
Algorithm two had 15 bets, 5 winners, 2 draws and 8 losers. Again, it looks worse than it is as the winners were decent odds.
Algorithm three had 16 bets, 6 winners and 3 draws and 7 losers.
The strike rate was very low on each algorithm but as you’ll see by the returns, the average odds saved the day a little.
The established systems made a loss of 1.65pts for H/A betting and a loss of 13.78pts for DNB. Not great but when you think about the bets the systems were working with, a small loss seems like a good achievement!
The new systems did even better. They managed to make a profit of 12.85pts for H/A betting and a loss of 2.2pts for DNB betting.
Overall Update over the New Year Period (28th Dec to 2nd Jan)
The established systems made a profit of 14.98pts for H/A betting from 132 games. An ROI of 11.3%.
The combined systems (6-21 to 8-22) made a profit of 8.30pts for H/A betting from 52 bets. An ROI of 16.0%.
The single systems (6,7,8,21,22) made a profit of 6.68pts for H/A betting from 80 bets. An ROI of 8.4%.
The new systems made a profit of 10.55pts for H/A betting from 133 games. An ROI of 7.93%.
The systems relating to the DNB ratings (31,32,33,6-32,21-31,6-21-31) made a profit of 12.55pts for H/A betting from 88 games. An ROI of 14.3%.
The systems built on the SGM methodology (TOX, STOY and STOZ) made a loss of 2pts from 45 games. An ROI of -4.4%.
The reason for posting the above updates for each set of systems is because I’m amazed how close the results over the New Year Period mirror the overall results for my systems since they went live! Here’s the full record of live results for each set of systems to 2nd January:
Established Systems – 4,147 bets, a profit of 441.2pts and an ROI of 10.6%.
Combined Systems – 1,515 bets, a profit of 256.8pts and an ROI of 17.0%.
Single Systems – 2,632 bets, a profit of 184.4pts and an ROI of 7.0%.
New Systems – 1,249 bets, a profit of 35.7pts and an ROI of 2.90%.
DNB systems – 1,014 bets, a profit of 51.8pts and an ROI of 5.10%.
SGM systems – 235 bets, a loss of 16.1pts and an ROI of -6.80%.
I could write another long post about these results but you can all draw your own conclusions. As I said the other day on here, the new systems are now under pressure as the live results haven’t matched the backtested results so far this season and compared to my other systems which have been going since last season, there is clear daylight between them.
Obviously, we’re only half way through the season, so a long way to go and it won’t take too much for the new systems to turn this around I hope. They need to start improving soon though!
Anyway, that will do for this update. My next post will be the monthly review and I’ll post it in the usual place and update the blog so you know it’s done.
No comments:
Post a Comment