I was sort of strapping myself in for a rough spell and as if by magic, the systems suffered a total wipeout this weekend. 7 games, 7 losers. Doesn’t get any more straightforward than that.
Algorithm one had 6 bets, 6 losers. -6pts.
Algorithm two had 4 bets, 4 losers. -4pts.
Algorithm three had 7 bets, 7 losers. -7pts.
It then becomes a case of how good the systems are at missing bets out!
Thankfully, they did an OK job this weekend and it could have been worse I suspect.
Established systems lost 20pts and New systems lost 25pts. Not a disaster.
No point dwelling on this weekend. Not the first time the systems have had a wipeout and won’t be the last time either. Happens once or twice every season.
We’ll move on……..
Total wipeout yes, but fortunatly with very few selections, so the pain was minimal, and a few sheckles recovered on laying under 1.5 goals "in play" on Peterborough / Sunderland.
ReplyDeleteAlso one of the selections could have gone completely the other way, as they missed an early penalty.
Roll on the next set of selections.
The other sport I try to follow is tennis and the resident SBC guru is JBravo, but his reasoning seems to be to select the longer priced selection in any contest, and betting against his selections would probably produce a decent profit, as there is no draw in tennis.
With the football selections you are betting against two other possible results. The systems identify value against these possibilities so will cope with the occasional wipeout.
Good luck for our next match up with the enemy.
Les
Hi Les.
ReplyDeleteYeah, as you say, there actually weren’t that many bets this weekend, so a 20pt loss for the established systems isn’t actually that bad. I’ve had worse days this season a few times already!
It’s slightly frustrating though when it happens at the exact time when I thought the systems may wobble (which is in line with past seasons!). As I said on one of my posts last week, I can’t actually do anything about it as the systems are still profitable in the second part of the season, it’s just that they are not as profitable as in the first part of the season. I expect more ups and downs but hopefully the ups will outweigh the downs.
A few people have asked me if I’m adjusting stakes and the answer is no. In the second part of the season, even after last season, the ROI is around 15% from the last 5 seasons. Assuming that I can’t match the backtesting results and based on the drop from backtesting to live results we see on the first part of the season, I would expect an ROI of around 5%-10% in the second part of this season. Added to the first part of the season, the ROI will still end up around the 10%-15% mark hopefully for the season.
End of the day, as long as there are profits to be made, then reducing stakes just reduces profits. If I thought the systems would lose money, I’d be as well stopping following rather than reducing stakes. If anyone really believe the systems will become hopeless overnight, then I’d suggest stopping rather than reducing stakes is the way to go for them.
Anyway, even after the weekend, I’m still in profit this month myself, so it’s not a disaster just yet. ;)
Cheers for the comment.
Graeme