Review of February......

The review of February is now up in the usual place. http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/p/201112-monthly-results.html

I don’t want to repeat the review again here but I think the key thing to take from the review is the fact that for the first time ever, both rating algorithms lost badly and yet, the combined systems made a profit on the month. There have been times before when one algorithm has lost and the combined systems have made a profit and of course, there have been times when both algorithms have made a profit and yet, the combined systems lost. However, there has never been a time when both algorithms lost while the combined systems make a profit.

I think it highlights the main reason why my combined systems are producing unparalleled returns (compared to other systems and tipsters) over such a large number of bets. Quite simply, I’ve created something that is pretty robust in the sense that even when my base value ratings are not having a good time of it (we’re seeing that at the moment), my ratings and systems are smart enough to know which bets are the best bets and to stake them accordingly. It’s hard to get across how difficult this is to do as simply, if your ratings aren’t doing well, trying to build a system to make a profit is pretty difficult to do! I’d even go as far to say that even if you have profitable ratings, trying to build a system or set of systems to make a profit is very difficult to do.

Anyway, that’s about the only positive to take from the month of February. 10 betting days, 8 losing days and 2 winning days. Just about sums up the month for me. I reckon it’s that last statistic that has made the month feel much worse than it looks in my P&L. When you lose 80% of the time, you don’t expect to be in profit. I’d even go as far to say that I don’t deserve to be in profit but maybe I’m being a bit harsh on my systems!

15 months of proofed results for the combined systems, 12 months of profits. 80% of months have been winning months. Not a bad statistic!

Next bets will be up on Friday evening for the weekend. If I can think of anything to write about before then, I’ll do a post but my attention has already turned to discussing AH betting in the SBC forum and I’m starting to build an algorithm for the European Leagues for next season, so writing on the blog isn’t a priority at the moment if I’m honest.

Hopefully everyone’s P&L this season is still in one piece following February…………

Results Update

I’ll try my best to not rant on too much considering I need to write a review for the month next and no doubt I’ll cover this topic again but I reckon the last two games just about sum up this month for me. It has been a horrible, horrible month and apart from the 3 bad losing months the systems have had, this has easily been the least enjoyable month for me. I’m sure part of it is due to the fact I returned from my honeymoon and threw myself straight back into it (maybe a longer break would have been better!) but either way, it has been horrible this month.

Saturday was actually quite a good day and if one or two goals had gone my way, I’d have been in record breaking territory I suspect for most points won in a day! Macclesfield couldn’t hang onto a 1-0 lead against Oxford at odds of 7.50, so that alone would have probably been enough to make it an exceptional day. There were a few other draws in there for big priced aways though and as always, it’s a thin line with these types. A draw turning into a win is a massive swing but unfortunately, it didn’t happen for many of them.

It did happen for Nottingham Forest though who were selected to beat Birmingham and one of the biggest games as of the weekend was Hibs away to Kilmarnock. They won easily and these two results ensured it was never going to be a losing day. The fact that Notts County managed to win too as the most picked team completed a decent day for the systems.

I was waiting on Crawley on Monday night. Having watched that game, I’m not quite sure how Crawley managed to lose as Shrewsbury didn’t really play well at all, struggled to muster a shot on goal and won 2-1! Disappointing really considering the way the game went.

Not quite as disappointing as last night though. Plymouth were quite a well selected low value bet against Macclesfield and from what I could make out, they played well. Unfortunately, they managed to concede in the 96th minute of the game with what was literally the last kick of the ball in the game. That again is a killer as instead of a substantial win, it’s a substantial loss for the systems and again, I think it sums up this month with away bets.

The only good thing to take from the month is that the P&L indicates it wasn’t quite as bad as it feels but sometimes at this game, the P&L lies! It is lying this month as it has been terrible and I reckon I’ve been very lucky to post a profit but I’ll take it. I’ll always take a profit if offered it, no matter how lucky I think it was!

Algorithm one had 18 bets. 6 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses. A profit of 2.57pts for H/A betting and a profit of 1.75pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm two had 18 bets, 6 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses. A profit of 2.57pts for H/A betting and a profit of 2.75pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm three had 18 bets, 5 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses. A loss of 0.18pts for H/A betting and a profit of 0.81pts for DNB betting.

Overall, not a disaster for any of the algorithms which makes a change this month if I’m honest!

The systems did an OK job in using these bets.

The established systems made a profit of 27.41pts for H/A betting and a profit of 16.29pts for DNB.

The new systems made a profit of 8.79pts for H/A betting and a profit of 10.67pts for DNB.

Overall, a small profitable selection of games but it could and should have been much better.

The next post will be when the monthly review has been completed.

One bet for tonight.....

I’ll do a results post after this game tonight. No point writing one today and then one tomorrow. It was an OK weekend but Crawley spoiled it last night really by not being able to beat a poor Shrewsbury side despite dominating most of the game.

Hopefully Plymouth can do the business tonight for us.

The Football Analyst Bets for 28th February

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 2.75 1.92

System 7
None

System 8
None

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 2.75 1.92

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 2.75 1.92

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 2.75 1.92

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 2.75 1.92

System 7-21
None

System 7-22
None

System 8-21
None

System 8-22
None

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 2.75 1.92

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 2.75 1.92

System 33
None

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 2.75 1.92

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 2.75 1.92

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 2.75 1.92

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 2.75 1.92 New Criteria

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 2.75 1.92 New Criteria

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 2.75 1.92 New Criteria

Big Weekend Coming Up......

Here’s the bets for this weekend. Another action packed weekend and if it goes badly, I’ll be throwing my toys out of the pram I suspect.

I think it’s actually the case that the combined systems are papering over the cracks at the moment. System 6-21 is on course for its worst losing month ever (including all backtesting) and it has become nearly impossible to find away winners in the last few weeks. Considering 80% of my bets are aways, it means it has been impossible to win recently.

Looking at this weekend, there is a strong bias towards aways as usual and I can really do with a few winning to get the show back on the road.

Of course, it’s not all doom and gloom as systems 6-22 to 8-22 are doing an amazing job at keeping things pretty stable but they need some help from system 6-21. You can’t keep hitting a couple of winners from 15 bets on system 6-21 and relying on system 7-21 to hit the couple of winners! It isn’t a miracle worker.

The base algorithms are finding it very tough at the moment due to the sudden home bias that has appeared, so hopefully things get back to normality sooner rather than later!

Good luck.

The Football Analyst Bets for 25th-27th February

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Southport Southport 2.75 1.94
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Tamworth Tamworth 5.50 4.03
25/02/2012 Championship Birmingham v Notts Forest Notts Forest 6.00 4.42
25/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Ipswich Ipswich 3.25 2.33
25/02/2012 Championship Coventry v Barnsley Barnsley 3.22 2.26
25/02/2012 League 1 Bury v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 3.00 2.14
25/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Yeovil Yeovil 5.00 3.70
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
25/02/2012 League 1 Oldham v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.39
25/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Walsall Walsall 3.60 2.57
25/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Wimbledon Wimbledon 3.75 2.69
25/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Macclesfield Macclesfield 7.50 5.77
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 Premiership QPR v Fulham QPR 2.70 1.90
25/02/2012 Premiership West Brom v Sunderland West Brom 2.45 1.73
25/02/2012 SPL Hearts v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.20 2.25
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Southport Southport 2.75 1.94
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Tamworth Tamworth 5.50 4.03
25/02/2012 Championship Birmingham v Notts Forest Notts Forest 6.00 4.42
25/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Ipswich Ipswich 3.25 2.33
25/02/2012 Championship Coventry v Barnsley Barnsley 3.22 2.26
25/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Yeovil Yeovil 5.00 3.70
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
25/02/2012 League 1 Oldham v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.39
25/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Walsall Walsall 3.60 2.57
25/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Wimbledon Wimbledon 3.75 2.69
25/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Macclesfield Macclesfield 7.50 5.77
25/02/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.90
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 Premiership West Brom v Sunderland West Brom 2.45 1.73
25/02/2012 SPL Hearts v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.20 2.25
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03
25/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Aberdeen St Mirren 2.50 1.74

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Southport Southport 2.75 1.94
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Southport Southport 2.75 1.94
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Tamworth Tamworth 5.50 4.03
25/02/2012 Championship Birmingham v Notts Forest Notts Forest 6.00 4.42
25/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Ipswich Ipswich 3.25 2.33
25/02/2012 Championship Coventry v Barnsley Barnsley 3.22 2.26
25/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Yeovil Yeovil 5.00 3.70
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
25/02/2012 League 1 Oldham v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.39
25/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Walsall Walsall 3.60 2.57
25/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Wimbledon Wimbledon 3.75 2.69
25/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Macclesfield Macclesfield 7.50 5.77
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 Premiership West Brom v Sunderland West Brom 2.45 1.73
25/02/2012 SPL Hearts v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.20 2.25
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Southport Southport 2.75 1.94
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Tamworth Tamworth 5.50 4.03
25/02/2012 Championship Birmingham v Notts Forest Notts Forest 6.00 4.42
25/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Ipswich Ipswich 3.25 2.33
25/02/2012 Championship Coventry v Barnsley Barnsley 3.22 2.26
25/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Yeovil Yeovil 5.00 3.70
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
25/02/2012 League 1 Oldham v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.39
25/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Walsall Walsall 3.60 2.57
25/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Wimbledon Wimbledon 3.75 2.69
25/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Macclesfield Macclesfield 7.50 5.77
25/02/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.90
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 Premiership QPR v Fulham QPR 2.70 1.90
25/02/2012 Premiership West Brom v Sunderland West Brom 2.45 1.73
25/02/2012 SPL Hearts v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.20 2.25
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03
25/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Aberdeen St Mirren 2.50 1.74

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Wimbledon Wimbledon 3.75 2.69
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Wimbledon Wimbledon 3.75 2.69
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Wimbledon Wimbledon 3.75 2.69
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Tamworth Tamworth 5.50 4.03
25/02/2012 Championship Birmingham v Notts Forest Notts Forest 6.00 4.42
25/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Ipswich Ipswich 3.25 2.33
25/02/2012 Championship Coventry v Barnsley Barnsley 3.22 2.26
25/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Yeovil Yeovil 5.00 3.70
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
25/02/2012 League 1 Oldham v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.39
25/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Walsall Walsall 3.60 2.57
25/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Wimbledon Wimbledon 3.75 2.69
25/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Macclesfield Macclesfield 7.50 5.77
25/02/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.90
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 Premiership West Brom v Sunderland West Brom 2.45 1.73
25/02/2012 SPL Hearts v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.20 2.25
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03
25/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Aberdeen St Mirren 2.50 1.74

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Tamworth Tamworth 5.50 4.03
25/02/2012 Championship Birmingham v Notts Forest Notts Forest 6.00 4.42
25/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Ipswich Ipswich 3.25 2.33
25/02/2012 Championship Coventry v Barnsley Barnsley 3.22 2.26
25/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Yeovil Yeovil 5.00 3.70
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38
25/02/2012 League 1 Oldham v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.39
25/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Walsall Walsall 3.60 2.57
25/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Wimbledon Wimbledon 3.75 2.69
25/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Macclesfield Macclesfield 7.50 5.77
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98
25/02/2012 Premiership West Brom v Sunderland West Brom 2.45 1.73
25/02/2012 SPL Hearts v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.20 2.25
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Tamworth Tamworth 5.50 4.03 New Criteria
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38 Old Criteria
25/02/2012 League 1 Oldham v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.39 New Criteria
25/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Walsall Walsall 3.60 2.57 New Criteria
25/02/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.90 Old Criteria
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98 New Criteria
25/02/2012 Premiership West Brom v Sunderland West Brom 2.45 1.73 New Criteria
25/02/2012 SPL Hearts v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.20 2.25 New Criteria
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03 Old Criteria
25/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Aberdeen St Mirren 2.50 1.74 Old Criteria

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Tamworth Tamworth 5.50 4.03 New Criteria
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38 Old Criteria
25/02/2012 League 1 Oldham v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.39 New Criteria
25/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Walsall Walsall 3.60 2.57 New Criteria
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98 New Criteria
25/02/2012 Premiership QPR v Fulham QPR 2.70 1.90 Old Criteria
25/02/2012 Premiership West Brom v Sunderland West Brom 2.45 1.73 New Criteria
25/02/2012 SPL Hearts v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.20 2.25 New Criteria
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03 Old Criteria

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
25/02/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Tamworth Tamworth 5.50 4.03 New Criteria
25/02/2012 League 1 Notts County v Chesterfield Notts County 1.88 1.38 Old Criteria
25/02/2012 League 1 Oldham v Tranmere Tranmere 3.40 2.39 New Criteria
25/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Walsall Walsall 3.60 2.57 New Criteria
25/02/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.90 Old Criteria
27/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Crawley Crawley 2.80 1.98 New Criteria
25/02/2012 Premiership QPR v Fulham QPR 2.70 1.90 Old Criteria
25/02/2012 Premiership West Brom v Sunderland West Brom 2.45 1.73 New Criteria
25/02/2012 SPL Hearts v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 3.20 2.25 New Criteria
25/02/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v Hibernian Hibernian 4.29 3.03 Old Criteria
25/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Aberdeen St Mirren 2.50 1.74 Old Criteria

Confidence is ebbing away slowly.....

Having been in this exact position 12 months ago, I always wondered what I’d be like if I saw the same things happening again. After last night, I think I’m pretty safe to say that my bottle is starting to go a little bit and the confidence in the systems is sinking fast. Of course, there are people reading this who will be thinking it’s a massive overreaction to a poor run of results and if you analyse things, it could easily have been better than it has turned out recently but if I’m honest, not sure much of this matters to me. At the end of the day, you need to have confidence in what you are doing and at the moment, based on my experiences from last season, my confidence is declining pretty quickly.

It’s the one topic I’ve discussed most on the blog since its inception and I actually covered it in depth at the start of January in this post, so I’m not going to go into depth about last season again. http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/2012/01/elephant-in-room.html

The question is, what do I do about it? As mentioned before on the blog, two of the guys following from last season changed tact for the second half of this season. One person stopped betting on the systems completely and is waiting for September before getting involved again and someone else switched to AH betting on all Aways. I dropped the AH switcher a quick email last night to see how he’s doing and he said things are still going pretty smoothly and he’s really happy he made that decision.

Deep down, I really hope these two guys regret their decision big time (I know they won’t mind me saying that!) and I hope they miss out on a lot of profits in the second half of the season. If this happens, I don’t actually think they’ll mind too much as they were able to justify their decision to themselves through the fact they lost a lot of money in the second half of last season.

I suspect out of everyone who followed the systems last season, I lost the most money in the second half of the season though and therefore, I’m possibly scarred the most out of everyone following the systems. Therefore, the question I really need to ask myself is, how would I feel if that happened again to me?

Of course, none of us know what will happen between now and the season end and there is no guarantee that the past represents a good approximation for this season but at the moment, it’s all I have to go on.

I’ll give it some thought and decide what I do from next month. I may well decide to stop following the systems myself which would feel like a bit of a cop out and a waste of doing all the work but having lost nearly 5 figures last season (which was nearly all the profits from the first half of the season!), I don’t fancy taking a similar hit this year!

By stopping, I sort of put myself into a no lose situation. If the systems crash and burn again, I save myself some money. If the systems go on and pick up again and do well, others continue to make money and will be happy to subscribe to get the bets next season. Hence, I can diversify the risk. If I continue betting and lose £5k+ and people lose money and don’t subscribe, then I’ve done a lot of work and lost a lot of money for nothing.

Anyway, that’s for me to ponder between now and next month. I’ll follow the next couple of sets of bets and then decide what to do.

Onto last night. After 10 minutes last night, the 3 biggest price teams were all 1-0 up and I hoped things were about to turn. Unfortunately, all 3 went on to lose 2-1!

I don’t doubt that my ratings are still finding value bets but for whatever reason, at some point in the season, teams who need to win at home manage to pull out the win (even though they are underpriced!) and ultimately, it hurts my systems’ performance. The 3 away sides last night all outperformed their odds I think and gave the favourites a run for their money but at the end of the day, the favourites needed the win to stay in the hunt for promotion whereas the mid table teams didn’t really need the win and more often than not, I think this psychological aspect buggers up my value ratings in the second half of the season!

Algorithm one had 9 bets, 3 winners, 1 draw and 5 losers. A loss of 1.95pts for H/A betting and a loss of 2.95pts for DNB.

Algorithm two had 8 bets, 2 winners, 1 draw and 5 losers. A loss of 4.05pts for H/A betting and a loss of 4.18pts for DNB.

Algorithm three had 9 bets, 3 winners, 1 draw and 5 losers. A profit of 0.21pts for H/A betting and a loss of 1.37pts for DNB.

The established systems lost 15.05pts for H/A betting and lost 11.30pts for DNB.

The newer systems lost 11.64pts for H/A betting and lost 15.30pts for DNB.

Another poor night I’m afraid. Looking quickly, since Jan 1st, there have 12 betting days and only 3 of these have been profitable for the systems. 75% of the betting days have been loss making! That probably explains why I’m starting to worry but hopefully things will turn soon!

I’ll post the weekend bets on the blog on Friday at 6pm.

Tonight's Bets

Here's the bets for tonight.

Biggest bet is Rotherham away to Gillingham. Rotherham appear to be in much better form recently and should be favourites for this one. Let's hope the game pans out as we hope!

Good luck.

The Football Analyst Bets for 21st February

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 Bsq Prem Bath v Hayes Bath 2.00 1.46
21/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.56 5.01
21/02/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Southend Aldershot 3.10 2.22
21/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Accrington Accrington 3.10 2.18
21/02/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.90 2.08
21/02/2012 League 2 Northampton v Macclesfield Northampton 2.02 1.44
21/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Barnet Barnet 5.10 3.74
21/02/2012 League 2 Swindon v Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 4.82 3.50
21/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Kilmarnock Dundee Utd 1.93 1.38

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.90 2.08

System 8
None

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 Bsq Prem Bath v Hayes Bath 2.00 1.46
21/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.56 5.01
21/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Accrington Accrington 3.10 2.18
21/02/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.90 2.08
21/02/2012 League 2 Northampton v Macclesfield Northampton 2.02 1.44
21/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Barnet Barnet 5.10 3.74
21/02/2012 League 2 Swindon v Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 4.82 3.50
21/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Kilmarnock Dundee Utd 1.93 1.38

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.90 2.08

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 Bsq Prem Bath v Hayes Bath 2.00 1.46
21/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.56 5.01
21/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Accrington Accrington 3.10 2.18
21/02/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.90 2.08
21/02/2012 League 2 Northampton v Macclesfield Northampton 2.02 1.44
21/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Barnet Barnet 5.10 3.74
21/02/2012 League 2 Swindon v Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 4.82 3.50
21/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Kilmarnock Dundee Utd 1.93 1.38

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.90 2.08

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.90 2.08

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.90 2.08

System 8-21
None

System 8-22
None

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 Bsq Prem Bath v Hayes Bath 2.00 1.46
21/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.56 5.01
21/02/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Walsall Walsall 4.18 3.03
21/02/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Southend Aldershot 3.10 2.22
21/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Accrington Accrington 3.10 2.18
21/02/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.90 2.08
21/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Barnet Barnet 5.10 3.74
21/02/2012 League 2 Swindon v Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 4.82 3.50
21/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Kilmarnock Dundee Utd 1.93 1.38

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Barnet Barnet 5.10 3.74
21/02/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Walsall Walsall 4.18 3.03

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Barnet Barnet 5.10 3.74

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Barnet Barnet 5.10 3.74

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 Bsq Prem Bath v Hayes Bath 2.00 1.46
21/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.56 5.01
21/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Accrington Accrington 3.10 2.18
21/02/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.90 2.08
21/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Barnet Barnet 5.10 3.74
21/02/2012 League 2 Swindon v Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 4.82 3.50
21/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Kilmarnock Dundee Utd 1.93 1.38

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 Bsq Prem Bath v Hayes Bath 2.00 1.46
21/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.56 5.01
21/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Accrington Accrington 3.10 2.18
21/02/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.90 2.08
21/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Barnet Barnet 5.10 3.74
21/02/2012 League 2 Swindon v Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 4.82 3.50
21/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Kilmarnock Dundee Utd 1.93 1.38

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 Bsq Prem Bath v Hayes Bath 2.00 1.46 New Criteria
21/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.56 5.01 Old Criteria
21/02/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.90 2.08 New Criteria
21/02/2012 League 2 Northampton v Macclesfield Northampton 2.02 1.44 New Criteria
21/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Barnet Barnet 5.10 3.74 Old Criteria
21/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Kilmarnock Dundee Utd 1.93 1.38 New Criteria

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 Bsq Prem Bath v Hayes Bath 2.00 1.46 New Criteria
21/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.56 5.01 Old Criteria
21/02/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.90 2.08 New Criteria
21/02/2012 League 2 Northampton v Macclesfield Northampton 2.02 1.44 New Criteria
21/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Barnet Barnet 5.10 3.74 Old Criteria
21/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Kilmarnock Dundee Utd 1.93 1.38 New Criteria

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/02/2012 Bsq Prem Bath v Hayes Bath 2.00 1.46 New Criteria
21/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.56 5.01 Old Criteria
21/02/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Walsall Walsall 4.18 3.03 New Criteria
21/02/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Southend Aldershot 3.10 2.22 New Criteria
21/02/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Rotherham Rotherham 2.90 2.08 New Criteria
21/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Barnet Barnet 5.10 3.74 Old Criteria
21/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v Kilmarnock Dundee Utd 1.93 1.38 New Criteria

I can live without this variance!

Before I get onto the disappointing weekend results, a few comments on what’s going on behind the scenes at the moment as I think this weekend helps to show why I’m never standing still at this game.

Although it’s not been mentioned on the blog, I’m working on a blueprint as to how to improve The Football Analyst service. I don’t want to go into depth at the moment as we’re still a long way from finishing this season but one thing that will be looked at during the summer is AH betting. I think if you look at my post on Friday and the results at the weekend, you can understand why this needs to be looked at.

Clearly, for the majority of systems, AH betting won’t improve them and therefore, when I discuss AH betting, it’s not aimed at every system or every bet I have. Instead, I’m thinking about a particular group of bets that are thrown up as value by my ratings.

As I said on Friday, I had 42 system bets at odds of 5.0+ this weekend. As it turns out, Lincoln conceded a 92nd minute equaliser which effectively meant 42pts were lost on these games. If Lincoln had held on, it would have been a 4.8pt profit on these bets rather than a 42pt loss, so that late goal was very, very costly. Put this fact to one side though for the moment.

Do I really want to be betting on so many teams at 5.0+? Do I enjoy backing teams I don’t think will win and do others enjoy this? I suspect the answer is no. Of course, in the long-term, these games are profitable on the systems and can achieve an ROI of 10%+ no problem at all, so they are profitable games to bet on. However, they do add a helluva lot of variance to the systems they appear on and simply, I suspect they undermine the performance of the systems as the capital needed (betting bank) to play these bets means that the return on capital you achieve is understated even though the ROI may be quite decent.

Is there a way around this? Well, yeah, Asian Hanidcaps would do the job I suspect.

Taking the odds at kick-off and the strategy I would employ if betting on AH’s, the AH and odds for each team (taken from Odds Portal) was:

Lincoln -0.5 at odds of 2.20
Oldham -0.75 at odds 2.09
Preston -1.25 at odds of 2.01
St Mirren -0.5 at odds of 2.16
Tamworth -1.25 at odds of 2.08

From the 5 bets, 2 would have returned full winners (Lincoln and St Mirren) and Preston would have been a ½ winner. The other two were losers. Therefore, a profit was made on these games.

As I discussed in a recent post, http://www.the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/2012/02/roi-for-show-roc-for-dough.html , I actually don’t think AH betting will increase the returns of the systems. Actually, from the work I’ve done, I can guarantee you this won’t happen. However, they can provide a much smoother journey to profitability and hopefully, a better return on capital that can be achieved in the long-run. You will however sacrifice the ROI that will be achieved but as that post says, ROI isn’t everything in this game.

Anyway, I thought it was worth mentioning that there is work going on in the background where I’m looking to improve the performance of the systems. Of course, some people may not mind backing big prices and suffering bad losing runs but achieving a decent profit in the long-run but for me personally, I can live without this sort of variance in my profit and loss account!

Onto the weekend. It was a shocker really although if Lincoln had held on, it would have been a break-even weekend. I can’t recall another goal this season that sickened me as much as this one did but I’m sure it won’t be the last bad beat we get at this game.

Algorithm one had 15 bets, only hit 3 winners, 4 draws but a massive 8 losers. A nightmare day. A loss of 8.59pts for H/A betting and a loss of 6.38pts for DNB betting.

Unfortunately, algorithm two found exactly the same bets as algorithm one this weekend, so it was the same performance again!

Algorithm three had 18 bets, 5 winners, 4 draws and 9 losers. Another nightmare. A loss of 5.34pts for H/A betting and a loss of 4.9pts for DNB betting.

Overall, a disaster of a day again for my ratings and base systems. Fortunately, the only good thing that happened this weekend was the more selective combined systems again showed why they are the best football systems on the planet at the moment (in my humble opinion of course!)

System 7 managed to take the 15 bets and narrow them down to 4 bets. It hit 3 winners and a draw. An amazing performance! System 8 did its job by taking these 4 bets and narrowing them down to 2 bets. 2 winners.

System 22 did well too by narrowing the 15 bets down to 2 bets and finding one winner.

Therefore, the systems did a great job in limiting the damage this weekend.

The established system lost 10.95pts for H/A betting and lost 11.63pts for DNB betting.

A special mention has to be made for the fact systems 6-22 to 8-22 managed to make a profit in the face of one of the worst performances for my base ratings this season! Not bad going if you happen to follow these systems. I noticed Malcolm across at http://mybettinglife.blogspot.com/ seemed fairly happy with his portfolio of 4 systems yesterday.

The new systems couldn’t quite limit the damage anywhere near as well as the established systems. A loss of 30.52pts for H/A betting and a loss of 23.64pts for DNB betting.

Overall, not a day I’m proud of but then again, with the high average odds overall, you need a few breaks to go your way and unfortunately, it didn’t happen this weekend.

Overall, the systems are well down on the month overall although the combined systems 6-22 to 8-22 are all in profit this month. 6-21 is down 13pts which is pulling down the overall performance of the 6 combined systems but I can’t really complain. It could have been a disaster of a month to date as the ratings are well off the mark at the moment but hopefully they’ll get back on track in midweek.

Bets will be posted on here at 9am on Tuesday.

High volatility weekend?

A very busy weekend coming up with a very high average odds overall (3.95), so it does scream high volatility if I’m honest. I suspect it could be a rollercoaster and if all of the big priced selection lose (as they are meant to do most of the time), it could well be a nightmare weekend. If I’m honest, I much prefer the weekends where we have a good mixture of Homes and Aways and especially where we have a lot of well fancied Aways as I sort of live with the fact that most weekends will be a +50p or -50pt weekend at best and worst case scenarios. I can live with that fairly comfortably.

This weekend, there are 42 system bets at odds of 5+, so it could easily (very easily!) be -42pts on these, so the variance on a weekend like this is always going to be massive. Of course, if a couple win, it will be huge profits on these bets and therefore, I reckon this weekend could be anywhere from -100pts to +100pts!

The biggest game for the systems is Aldershot. I have them a good bit shorter away from home against a very out of form Macclesfield who have lost 6 on the spin (barely managed shots on target) and are currently the most out of form team in the league on my ratings. Aldershot appear to be improving on all recent form and according to my ratings, they should be too good for Macclesfield here. We’ll see what happens.

Good luck and I’ll be back on Sunday evening with the results update.

The Football Analyst Bets for 17th-19th February

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Gateshead Gateshead 2.88 2.02
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Lincoln Lincoln 5.20 3.86
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Luton v Tamworth Tamworth 10.00 8.00
18/02/2012 Championship Peterborough v Bristol City Bristol City 3.15 2.24
18/02/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Coventry Notts Forest 1.91 1.38
17/02/2012 Championship Reading v Burnley Burnley 4.33 3.09
18/02/2012 League 1 Exeter v Bury Bury 3.20 2.27
18/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Oldham Oldham 6.50 4.87
18/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Preston Preston 7.23 5.54
18/02/2012 League 1 Walsall v Wycombe Wycombe 3.58 2.55
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94
18/02/2012 League 2 Southend v Crewe Southend 1.75 1.30
18/02/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.22
19/02/2012 SPL Aberdeen v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.30 2.30
18/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v St Mirren St Mirren 5.00 3.69

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Coventry Notts Forest 1.91 1.38
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94
18/02/2012 League 2 Southend v Crewe Southend 1.75 1.30
18/02/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.22

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94
18/02/2012 League 2 Southend v Crewe Southend 1.75 1.30

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Gateshead Gateshead 2.88 2.02
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Lincoln Lincoln 5.20 3.86
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Luton v Tamworth Tamworth 10.00 8.00
18/02/2012 Championship Peterborough v Bristol City Bristol City 3.15 2.24
18/02/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Coventry Notts Forest 1.91 1.38
17/02/2012 Championship Reading v Burnley Burnley 4.33 3.09
18/02/2012 League 1 Exeter v Bury Bury 3.20 2.27
18/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Oldham Oldham 6.50 4.87
18/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Preston Preston 7.23 5.54
18/02/2012 League 1 Walsall v Wycombe Wycombe 3.58 2.55
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94
18/02/2012 League 2 Southend v Crewe Southend 1.75 1.30
18/02/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.22
19/02/2012 SPL Aberdeen v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.30 2.30
18/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v St Mirren St Mirren 5.00 3.69

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Gateshead Gateshead 2.88 2.02
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Gateshead Gateshead 2.88 2.02
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Lincoln Lincoln 5.20 3.86
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Luton v Tamworth Tamworth 10.00 8.00
18/02/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Coventry Notts Forest 1.91 1.38
18/02/2012 Championship Peterborough v Bristol City Bristol City 3.15 2.24
17/02/2012 Championship Reading v Burnley Burnley 4.33 3.09
18/02/2012 League 1 Exeter v Bury Bury 3.20 2.27
18/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Oldham Oldham 6.50 4.87
18/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Preston Preston 7.23 5.54
18/02/2012 League 1 Walsall v Wycombe Wycombe 3.58 2.55
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94
18/02/2012 League 2 Southend v Crewe Southend 1.75 1.30
18/02/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.22
19/02/2012 SPL Aberdeen v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.30 2.30
18/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v St Mirren St Mirren 5.00 3.69

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Gateshead Gateshead 2.88 2.02
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Coventry Notts Forest 1.91 1.38
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94
18/02/2012 League 2 Southend v Crewe Southend 1.75 1.30
18/02/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.22

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94
18/02/2012 League 2 Southend v Crewe Southend 1.75 1.30

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Lincoln Lincoln 5.20 3.86
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Luton v Tamworth Tamworth 10.00 8.00
18/02/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Watford Watford 3.43 2.41
18/02/2012 Championship Ipswich v Cardiff Ipswich 2.75 1.98
18/02/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Coventry Notts Forest 1.91 1.38
18/02/2012 Championship Peterborough v Bristol City Bristol City 3.15 2.24
17/02/2012 Championship Reading v Burnley Burnley 4.33 3.09
18/02/2012 League 1 Exeter v Bury Bury 3.20 2.27
18/02/2012 League 1 Leyton Orient v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.49
18/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Oldham Oldham 6.50 4.87
18/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Preston Preston 7.23 5.54
18/02/2012 League 1 Walsall v Wycombe Wycombe 3.58 2.55
18/02/2012 League 2 Barnet v Shrewsbury Barnet 3.23 2.28
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94
18/02/2012 League 2 Southend v Crewe Southend 1.75 1.30
18/02/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.22
19/02/2012 SPL Aberdeen v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.30 2.30
18/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v St Mirren St Mirren 5.00 3.69

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Watford Watford 3.43 2.41
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94
19/02/2012 SPL Aberdeen v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.30 2.30

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94
19/02/2012 SPL Aberdeen v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.30 2.30

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Lincoln Lincoln 5.20 3.86
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Luton v Tamworth Tamworth 10.00 8.00
18/02/2012 Championship Peterborough v Bristol City Bristol City 3.15 2.24
18/02/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Coventry Notts Forest 1.91 1.38
17/02/2012 Championship Reading v Burnley Burnley 4.33 3.09
18/02/2012 League 1 Exeter v Bury Bury 3.20 2.27
18/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Oldham Oldham 6.50 4.87
18/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Preston Preston 7.23 5.54
18/02/2012 League 1 Walsall v Wycombe Wycombe 3.58 2.55
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94
18/02/2012 League 2 Southend v Crewe Southend 1.75 1.30
18/02/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.22
19/02/2012 SPL Aberdeen v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.30 2.30
18/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v St Mirren St Mirren 5.00 3.69

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Lincoln Lincoln 5.20 3.86
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Luton v Tamworth Tamworth 10.00 8.00
18/02/2012 Championship Peterborough v Bristol City Bristol City 3.15 2.24
18/02/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Coventry Notts Forest 1.91 1.38
17/02/2012 Championship Reading v Burnley Burnley 4.33 3.09
18/02/2012 League 1 Exeter v Bury Bury 3.20 2.27
18/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Oldham Oldham 6.50 4.87
18/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Preston Preston 7.23 5.54
18/02/2012 League 1 Walsall v Wycombe Wycombe 3.58 2.55
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94
18/02/2012 League 2 Southend v Crewe Southend 1.75 1.30
18/02/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.22
19/02/2012 SPL Aberdeen v St Johnstone St Johnstone 3.30 2.30
18/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v St Mirren St Mirren 5.00 3.69

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Gateshead Gateshead 2.88 2.02 New Criteria
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Lincoln Lincoln 5.20 3.86 Old Criteria
18/02/2012 Championship Peterborough v Bristol City Bristol City 3.15 2.24 New Criteria
18/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Oldham Oldham 6.50 4.87 Old Criteria
18/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Preston Preston 7.23 5.54 Old Criteria
18/02/2012 League 1 Walsall v Wycombe Wycombe 3.58 2.55 New Criteria
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94 New Criteria
18/02/2012 League 2 Southend v Crewe Southend 1.75 1.30 Old Criteria
18/02/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.22 New Criteria
18/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v St Mirren St Mirren 5.00 3.69 Old Criteria

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Gateshead Gateshead 2.88 2.02 New Criteria
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Lincoln Lincoln 5.20 3.86 Old Criteria
18/02/2012 Championship Peterborough v Bristol City Bristol City 3.15 2.24 New Criteria
18/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Oldham Oldham 6.50 4.87 Old Criteria
18/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Preston Preston 7.23 5.54 Old Criteria
18/02/2012 League 1 Walsall v Wycombe Wycombe 3.58 2.55 New Criteria
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94 New Criteria
18/02/2012 League 2 Southend v Crewe Southend 1.75 1.30 Old Criteria
18/02/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.22 New Criteria
18/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v St Mirren St Mirren 5.00 3.69 Old Criteria

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Gateshead Gateshead 2.88 2.02 New Criteria
18/02/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Lincoln Lincoln 5.20 3.86 Old Criteria
18/02/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Watford Watford 3.43 2.41 New Criteria
18/02/2012 Championship Ipswich v Cardiff Ipswich 2.75 1.98 New Criteria
18/02/2012 Championship Peterborough v Bristol City Bristol City 3.15 2.24 New Criteria
18/02/2012 League 1 Leyton Orient v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.49 Old Criteria
18/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Oldham Oldham 6.50 4.87 Old Criteria
18/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Preston Preston 7.23 5.54 Old Criteria
18/02/2012 League 1 Walsall v Wycombe Wycombe 3.58 2.55 New Criteria
18/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Aldershot Aldershot 2.75 1.94 New Criteria
18/02/2012 League 2 Southend v Crewe Southend 1.75 1.30 Old Criteria
18/02/2012 SPL Dundee Utd v St Mirren St Mirren 5.00 3.69 Old Criteria

Bets will appear at 6pm

A very quick post to say tonight’s bets will appear at 6pm on here. There is a bet in tonight’s match which some of you may be following.

I’ve had a couple of requests for more consistency on the blog around when I release the bets. It’s a fair comment as I was basically posting at random times on a Friday evening!

For the remainder of this season, all bets will appear on the blog at 6pm on a Friday evening for the weekend and 9am on a Tuesday morning for midweek bets. This gives my email subscribers nearly 24 hours for the weekend bets and over 12 hours for the midweek bets. Should be ample time to get the bets on I hope.

Good luck.

Καλώς ήρθατε στην ελληνική φίλους μου

Apologies to my Greek readers if the title of the post doesn’t make sense!

I received a comment a few posts back from a reader called Tasos saying ‘We love you’. I clicked on his name (as you would do when someone declares love for you!) and it took me to a betting site but unfortunately, it was written in Greek! I could see that something had been posted regarding my blog as it had a link to it but even with Google translation, I couldn’t understand what the post was saying.

I figured it had said something good as the blog has received an unbelievable amount of hits from Greece in the last couple of days.

I’ve since received a comment this morning from Markos who kindly informed me that the link was on a Greek betting site and it said that my blog was one of the best betting blogs. Wouldn’t like to argue with that comment although it’s probably the best source of free football selections on the net, not necessarily the best blog. My blogs linked to better blogs than this but my blog’s not really a blog!

Anyway, it’s always nice to get some new readers and if any of you have any questions, please leave me a comment and I’ll get back to you.

Καλή τύχη

A bad night...or was it?

I always find it hard to write a review after a night like last night. I lost money last night (only a small sum thankfully!) and anyone following the systems would have lost money last night, so it feels wrong to say it wasn’t a bad night but when I look at the results, I can’t help but feel it wasn’t a bad night!

Only one bet made it onto systems 7 and 8 and only one bet made it onto system 22, so basically, there were a lot of bets last night but none were really high value as I said before the games. Hence, I can’t get too annoyed when I see that the results weren’t great. What did I expect?

It’s a strange one as if last night turned out to be a great night, I’d have been really annoyed that more bets didn’t appear on more systems and it would have been an opportunity missed. Hence, when it goes badly, should I be saying the systems did a great job in reducing the exposure on the night? I tend to think so. Systems 7-22 and 8-22 had a great night last night in comparison to other systems. Why do these systems have ROI’s above 25% over the last season and a half? They manage to dodge nights like last night!

Anyway, onto more important matters, the results for the systems that did have bets.

Algorithm one had 14 bets, 4 winners, 4 draws and 6 losers. It managed to catch 2 good away winners which helps limit the losses though. A loss of 2.61pts for H/A betting and a loss of 1.79pts for DNB.

Algorithm two had 12 bets, 3 winners, 4 draws and 5 losers. A loss of 3.92pts for H/A betting and a loss of 2.14pts for DNB.

Algorithm three had 10 bets, 3 winners, 2 draws and 5 losers. A loss of 0.41pts for H/A betting and a loss of 1.11pts for DNB.

As usual, the system bets are what we are mostly interested in.

The established systems made a loss of 15.45pts for H/A betting and a loss of 10.07pts for DNB. Considering the poor performance of the first two algorithms, it could have been a lot worse than this if the systems had more bets!

The newer systems made a loss of 7.41pts for H/A betting and a loss of 5.79pts for DNB.

The newer systems were helped by the fact TOX and STOY managed to make a profit on the night (which was very difficult to do!). These 3 SMG systems remain an enigma to me in the sense they do seem to do well when my other systems struggle but they do badly when my other systems do well. One thing I will look at in the summer is seeing if these systems reduce the variance if combined with other systems. I expect they probably dovetail the other systems well but I’ve no evidence tbh.

Anyway, that’s it for this midweek. After the weekend and midweek games, February is loss making across the majority of systems and it starts to open up the possibility of a losing month. I sort of feel like the systems are due a losing month as it’s been a long-time since September although it has felt much more difficult since the end of November. December wasn’t great and neither was January, so hopefully February can get back on track this weekend.

ROI for show, ROC for dough......

Just a really quick post to say that I’ve added another tab to the blog. I asked my email subscribers for feedback and two of them commented on the fact that it’s actually really difficult to know what the results are at any point in time.

http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/p/latest-system-results.html

I do daily results, monthly results and of course, I’ll spend a long time discussing the results at season end but I don’t actually have anywhere on the blog that shows the results to date for the season or even an easy place to see the results from last season. Being honest, it’s one of these things whereby when you’re so engrossed in something, you can’t see the wood for the trees.

I think one issue I’ve always had is that it’s difficult to find the best way to show the results. I’ve found a way I like though, so let me know if this does the trick. It should be big enough to read!

Now I see the results, I sort of want to add notation to say which systems are the established systems and new systems and which systems are the combined systems and lastly, which systems are SMG systems as ultimately, the new systems are making the returns look in line with last season but in reality, the systems from last season are doing better this season!

Anyway, I’ll leave the interpretation of the results to others.

What I would say (can’t resist a comment!) is that people spend a lot of time (and money!) trying to find a profitable football system to follow. I’ve got 20 systems on the go for this season and backing H/A, only one system is currently making a loss. Backing DNB, only one is losing.

As of today, there have been 5,839 bets proofed to the SBC (as well as on this blog) and it has resulted in a profit of 550pts. Sounds OK but in reality, I think you only understand the overall results if you look at the individual system results.

One thing that is always interesting for me personally with having so many systems is trying to understand what people do with the bets. I was interested to read on the http://green-pullover.blogspot.com/ blog that the author has developed his own way to play some of the system bets. He won’t be surprised to learn that he’s not alone with doing this and I now know of at least 10+ ways people are playing the bets. That’s not including me!

I’ve sort of recorded the ways people have told me they are playing and come season end, it will be interesting to see which ways produce the highest return on capital. I could have said ROI but ROC is a much better measure of success for a gambling system in my opinion.

An easy example can be seen from this season. System 7-22 has a profit of 17.6pts if backing the team to win outright and a profit of 9.3pts if following DNB (covering the draw). Since there have been 52 bets this season on the system, H/A has an ROI of 33.9% and DNB has an ROI of 17.9%. Clearly, backing the teams to win outright is a better system isn’t it?

Well, let’s look at the suggested banks for each strategy. If backing outright, I suggested a bank of 40pts. If backing DNB, I suggested a bank of 20pts. The rationale being that the worst drawdown for H/A is 16pts and the worst drawdown for DNB is 8pts. Hence, using a multiplier of 2.5, I came up with these banks. Obviously, I know 2.5 is very conservative and I don’t use as big a multiplier as that and I’m guessing many others don’t do but let’s just keep this simple!

What is the return on capital? Well, H/A has made a ROC of 44% and DNB has made a ROC of 46.5%.

Would you rather have a higher ROI or a higher ROC?

Of course, the reason people don’t get too bogged down with ROC is at the end of the day, many people gambling don’t sit with the full betting bank suggested waiting on a drawdown. In addition, calculating the ‘correct’ betting bank is nearly impossible.

Someone could say that a ROC of 44% is nowhere near as good as that offered by another tipster or another system. Of course, if I said that the betting bank needed for H/A was only 20pts, then my ROC this season is now 88% and looking much better! Hence, it’s a subjective measure and not one that can be compared with other gambling opportunities easily but something worth considering when developing a strategy with my systems.

Tonight's Bets

A lack of high value bets tonight I'm afraid although there are plenty of bets thrown up. I just won't be backing too many of them with anything above minimum stakes!

Good luck.

The Football Analyst Bets for 14th February

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 Bsq Prem Newport v Bath Bath 4.75 3.43
14/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Millwall Millwall 4.01 2.83
14/02/2012 Championship Bristol City v Crystal Palace Bristol City 2.41 1.68
14/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Tranmere Tranmere 5.00 3.66
14/02/2012 League 1 Charlton v MK Dons MK Dons 3.75 2.68
14/02/2012 League 1 Notts Co v Exeter Notts Co 1.80 1.32
14/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Hartlepool Hartlepool 3.40 2.45
14/02/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Rochdale Rochdale 3.60 2.60
14/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Stevenage Stevenage 4.33 3.14
14/02/2012 League 1 Wycombe v Yeovil Yeovil 3.31 2.36
14/02/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Hereford Aldershot 1.95 1.40
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22
14/02/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Barnet Barnet 3.00 2.14
14/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.75 3.49

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 Bsq Prem Newport v Bath Bath 4.75 3.43
14/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Millwall Millwall 4.01 2.83
14/02/2012 Championship West Ham v Southampton Southampton 3.50 2.47
14/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Tranmere Tranmere 5.00 3.66
14/02/2012 League 1 Charlton v MK Dons MK Dons 3.75 2.68
14/02/2012 League 1 Notts Co v Exeter Notts Co 1.80 1.32
14/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Hartlepool Hartlepool 3.40 2.45
14/02/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Rochdale Rochdale 3.60 2.60
14/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Stevenage Stevenage 4.33 3.14
14/02/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Hereford Aldershot 1.95 1.40
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22
14/02/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Barnet Barnet 3.00 2.14

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Barnet Barnet 3.00 2.14

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Hereford Aldershot 1.95 1.40
14/02/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Barnet Barnet 3.00 2.14
14/02/2012 Bsq Prem Newport v Bath Bath 4.75 3.43
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22
14/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Hartlepool Hartlepool 3.40 2.45
14/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Millwall Millwall 4.01 2.83
14/02/2012 League 1 Charlton v MK Dons MK Dons 3.75 2.68
14/02/2012 League 1 Notts Co v Exeter Notts Co 1.80 1.32
14/02/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Rochdale Rochdale 3.60 2.60
14/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Stevenage Stevenage 4.33 3.14
14/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Tranmere Tranmere 5.00 3.66

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Barnet Barnet 3.00 2.14

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22

System 7-22
None

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22

System 8-22
None

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 Bsq Prem Newport v Bath Bath 4.75 3.43
14/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Millwall Millwall 4.01 2.83
14/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Tranmere Tranmere 5.00 3.66
14/02/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Rochdale Rochdale 3.60 2.60
14/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Stevenage Stevenage 4.33 3.14
14/02/2012 League 1 Wycombe v Yeovil Yeovil 3.31 2.36
14/02/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Hereford Aldershot 1.95 1.40
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22
14/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Dagenham Dagenham 6.50 4.88
14/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.75 3.49

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Millwall Millwall 4.01 2.83
14/02/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Rochdale Rochdale 3.60 2.60
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Millwall Millwall 4.01 2.83
14/02/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Rochdale Rochdale 3.60 2.60
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Hereford Aldershot 1.95 1.40
14/02/2012 Bsq Prem Newport v Bath Bath 4.75 3.43
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22
14/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Millwall Millwall 4.01 2.83
14/02/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Rochdale Rochdale 3.60 2.60
14/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Stevenage Stevenage 4.33 3.14
14/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Tranmere Tranmere 5.00 3.66

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Hereford Aldershot 1.95 1.40
14/02/2012 Bsq Prem Newport v Bath Bath 4.75 3.43
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22
14/02/2012 Championship Brighton v Millwall Millwall 4.01 2.83
14/02/2012 League 1 Scunthorpe v Rochdale Rochdale 3.60 2.60
14/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Stevenage Stevenage 4.33 3.14
14/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Tranmere Tranmere 5.00 3.66

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Hereford Aldershot 1.95 1.40 Old Criteria
14/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Stevenage Stevenage 4.33 3.14 Old Criteria
14/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Tranmere Tranmere 5.00 3.66 Old Criteria
14/02/2012 League 1 Notts Co v Exeter Notts Co 1.80 1.32 Old Criteria
14/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Hartlepool Hartlepool 3.40 2.45 New Criteria
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22 New Criteria
14/02/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Barnet Barnet 3.00 2.14 New Criteria

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Hereford Aldershot 1.95 1.40 Old Criteria
14/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Stevenage Stevenage 4.33 3.14 Old Criteria
14/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Tranmere Tranmere 5.00 3.66 Old Criteria
14/02/2012 League 1 Notts Co v Exeter Notts Co 1.80 1.32 Old Criteria
14/02/2012 League 1 Preston v Hartlepool Hartlepool 3.40 2.45 New Criteria
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22 New Criteria
14/02/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Barnet Barnet 3.00 2.14 New Criteria

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/02/2012 League 2 Aldershot v Hereford Aldershot 1.95 1.40 Old Criteria
14/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Stevenage Stevenage 4.33 3.14 Old Criteria
14/02/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Tranmere Tranmere 5.00 3.66 Old Criteria
14/02/2012 League 2 Oxford v Dagenham Dagenham 6.50 4.88 Old Criteria
14/02/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.75 3.49 Old Criteria
14/02/2012 League 2 Crewe v Burton Burton 3.10 2.22 New Criteria
14/02/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Barnet Barnet 3.00 2.14 New Criteria

Results Update

A quick update tonight as it’s been a long week and I’m back to work tomorrow.

A strange weekend really as there were 7 teams thrown up as value across the 3 algorithms but in reality, the only game that mattered this weekend was always going to be the West Brom game as I said on Friday night. Only one of the 7 games resulted in the systems finding a winner this weekend…..thankfully, it was the game that mattered and boy, did West Brom win that game. It was actually 5-1 going on about 10-2 and as I said on Friday, my ratings had West Brom down as a class above Wolves at the moment and I think the gap in class was apparent from the first whistle.

I backed West Brom at odds of 3.20 and just before kick-off, they were about 2.80 on Betfair I think which was much closer to where they were meant to be. Having watched the game, I’d say I had them overpriced myself as from the first whistle, they always looked the much more likely team to win.

Thankfully, the game helped win back the losses from Saturday as it was a poor day on Saturday.

Algorithm one had 5 bets, 1 winner, 3 draws and 1 loser. A loss of 1.9pts for H/A but a profit of 0.19pts for DNB.

Algorithm two had 4 bets, 1 winner, 2 draws and 1 loser. A loss of 0.9pts for H/A but a profit of 0.19pts for DNB.

Algorithm three had 5 bets, 3 draws and 2 losers. A loss of 5pts for H/A and a loss of 2pts for DNB.

Not exactly a pretty set of results for the base algorithms but as always, the systems tell the story of the weekend.

The established systems made a profit of 13.10pts for H/A and 10.07pts for DNB. The combined systems were the major winner in that set of systems with a profit of 9.6pts from 9 games (6.13pts for DNB).

The new systems made a loss of 8.7pts for H/A and a loss of 0.44pts for DNB.

The winners were actually the SGM systems who made a profit of 1.1pts for H/A and 1.19pts for DNB on each of the 3 systems.

Overall then, depending on the systems you follow, it could easily have been a profitable weekend or a losing weekend. Those following the combined systems probably had an OK weekend again I hope.

I’ll be back on Tuesday morning with the bets for midweek.

Quieter Weekend

(I've not edited the below post for the fact most of the games are postponed. If you are following, check the games are on first before looking to place the bets!)

It’s a quieter weekend than I thought it would be when I first looked at the ratings and the games first thing yesterday morning. However, a lot of the marginal value bets got dropped as the odds reduced throughout the day and by the time I issued the bets at 7pm, a fair number had been chopped from the system bets as the value was gone. This is never ideal as I can’t help but feel like I’m missing out but at the end of the day, this game is all about value at a point in time.

A team that is available at 7/2 may be a marginal value bet but at 3/1, I can pass on them. Long-term, the 0.5pts add up and I’ve been playing this game long enough to know that I can’t go chasing lower odds on teams.

The biggest game this weekend is the West Brom game on Sunday. It’s a massive game for Mick McCarthy and Wolves and so many times over the past 3 season, Wolves have pulled it out at home in these sort of games. Hopefully they don’t pull it out on Sunday as they are facing a West Brom team who are playing a level above Wolves and look overpriced in this one according to my ratings.

Good luck and I’ll be back on Sunday night or early next week with the results.

Cheers,

Graeme


The Football Analyst Bets for 11th/12th February

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Barrow Cambridge 1.80 1.32
11/02/2012 Championship Hull v Bristol City Bristol City 5.48 3.95
11/02/2012 Championship Millwall v Derby Millwall 2.15 1.52
11/02/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Watford Notts Forest 2.25 1.60
11/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.15 4.69
11/02/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Carlisle Carlisle 4.11 2.99
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60
11/02/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.90 2.05
11/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 3.20 2.26
11/02/2012 League 2 Port Vale v Crewe Port Vale 2.05 1.50
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19
11/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Motherwell St Mirren 2.60 1.83

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Barrow Cambridge 1.80 1.32
11/02/2012 Championship Hull v Bristol City Bristol City 5.48 3.95
11/02/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Watford Notts Forest 2.25 1.60
11/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.15 4.69
11/02/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Carlisle Carlisle 4.11 2.99
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60
11/02/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.90 2.05
11/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 3.20 2.26
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19
11/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Motherwell St Mirren 2.60 1.83

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Barrow Cambridge 1.80 1.32
11/02/2012 Championship Hull v Bristol City Bristol City 5.48 3.95
11/02/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Watford Notts Forest 2.25 1.60
11/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.15 4.69
11/02/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Carlisle Carlisle 4.11 2.99
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60
11/02/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.90 2.05
11/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 3.20 2.26
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19
11/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Motherwell St Mirren 2.60 1.83

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Alfreton Alfreton 3.60 2.64
11/02/2012 Cahmpionship Barnsley v Birmingham Barnsley 3.93 2.83
11/02/2012 Cahmpionship Millwall v Derby Millwall 2.15 1.52
11/02/2012 Championship Hull v Bristol City Bristol City 5.48 3.95
11/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.15 4.69
11/02/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Wycombe Wycombe 9.00 7.12
11/02/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Carlisle Carlisle 4.11 2.99
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60
11/02/2012 League 2 Barnet v Swindon Barnet 4.33 3.11
11/02/2012 League 2 Crawley v Aldershot Aldershot 8.15 6.37
11/02/2012 League 2 Hereford v Cheltenham Hereford 4.33 3.12
11/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 3.20 2.26
11/02/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Bradford Bradford 3.10 2.22
11/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Motherwell St Mirren 2.60 1.83

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 Cahmpionship Millwall v Derby Millwall 2.15 1.52
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 Cahmpionship Millwall v Derby Millwall 2.15 1.52
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 Cahmpionship Millwall v Derby Millwall 2.15 1.52
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 Championship Hull v Bristol City Bristol City 5.48 3.95
11/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.15 4.69
11/02/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Carlisle Carlisle 4.11 2.99
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60
11/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 3.20 2.26
11/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Motherwell St Mirren 2.60 1.83

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 Championship Hull v Bristol City Bristol City 5.48 3.95
11/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.15 4.69
11/02/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Carlisle Carlisle 4.11 2.99
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60
11/02/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Plymouth Plymouth 3.20 2.26
11/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Motherwell St Mirren 2.60 1.83

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.15 4.69 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Carlisle Carlisle 4.11 2.99 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Motherwell St Mirren 2.60 1.83 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.90 2.05 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60 New Criteria
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19 New Criteria

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.15 4.69 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Carlisle Carlisle 4.11 2.99 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Motherwell St Mirren 2.60 1.83 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.90 2.05 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60 New Criteria
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19 New Criteria

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
11/02/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Bury Bury 6.15 4.69 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Carlisle Carlisle 4.11 2.99 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 SPL St Mirren v Motherwell St Mirren 2.60 1.83 Old Criteria
11/02/2012 League 1 Tranmere v Preston Tranmere 2.25 1.60 New Criteria
12/02/2012 Premiership Wolves v West Brom West Brom 3.10 2.19 New Criteria
11/02/2012 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Alfreton Alfreton 3.60 2.64 New Criteria
11/02/2012 League 2 Wimbledon v Bradford Bradford 3.10 2.22 New Criteria

Could have been a disaster.....

I said last night that I wouldn't look in depth at the results I missed but once you start looking, it's so addictive, it's nearly impossible to stop!

Anyway, I've got nothing to lose by sharing the results on here. These obviously won't be used for anything but if any of you are following systems, you'll see what you missed by me being away.

The key game was the Chelsea v Man Utd game. Chelsea appeared on every system and if they had won, I'm not sure I'd have been so keen to share the results I missed. As it turns out, with them losing a 3 goal lead, it means that the more selective systems struggled to make any profits due to a lack of bets.

Interestingly, system 6-21 continued in the same form it was in before I left and missed out on a little profit in my absence. The combined systems missed out on around 4.4pts profit from 21 bets and that would have been my proofed results. As the title suggests, it's not a disaster but if Chelsea had won, it would have been!

That's me now up to date and starting to look at the weekend games now. Looks to be plenty of bets here, so they'll be on the blog tomorrow night.

I'm back....

As the title post suggests, I’m now back from my honeymoon in Mexico. It was an amazing holiday and a great place to visit. Two weeks is long enough away though and I’m sort of glad to be home although having opened up my spreadsheets today to start to update the missing results of games, I’m starting to miss Mexico already!

I’ve updated the monthly review for January as promised before I left. You can read it here if you scroll down to the bottom of the page.

http://www.the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/p/201112-monthly-results.html

If any readers signed up to the trial I gave to SBC members over the Christmas period, I’ve sent out the results tonight along with an email. Apologies it’s late but it’s the first chance I’ve had really since I was away at the end of the trial.

I’ll finish updating the missing results in the next hour or so (I slept late yesterday (Wednesday) to make up for the jet lag as I was up for 36 hours straight on the way home!) and before I start looking at the games for this weekend, I want to take a quick look at the bets I would have had over the last two weeks.

I’m not going to go into depth on the blog about what the results would have been as at the end of the day, it makes no difference. If I missed a great period or a nightmare period, it isn’t going to affect the future results at all. However, I will take a quick look at the bets that we missed and determine whether it looked a good period or not. From reading Adam’s blog across at 2010 and beyond, I suspect it would have been a profitable period for my systems but I’ll check first thing tomorrow and do a quick post on the blog.

After that, it’s a case of getting back to business as usual and I’ll have a full set of system bets for this weekend. I’ll get these on the blog on Friday night although they’ll be sent out as usual on Thursday evening.

Thanks for the comments on the last post. Nice to see that I’ve still got some readers and it’s great that a few people have bothered to comment. All comments are always appreciated as I’ve said before.

OK, I’ll get back to work now looking at what happened in my absence……