Thursday, 9 August 2012

Lack of time......

I feel I need to apologise again for the lack of blog postings again as it’s been nearly 2 weeks since my last post and even then, that was hardly an insightful post!

Quite simply, all my spare time in the evenings is being taken up with answering emails or doing Excel work on behalf of subscribers for next season and as I’ve said to a few people this week, I probably underestimated the workload I was taking on this Summer by growing the service. I think what has caught me out a little is the fact I assumed the current subscribers would just roll on to next season and not ask me any questions but of course, with me doubling the number of systems people can follow, even the current subscribers who understood the UK systems are asking questions regarding the Euro systems!

What I’ve been doing since my last blog post is answering any short emails fairly quickly but the emails asking me to look at various staking plans or build certain portfolios have taken longer to reply to. In addition, I would usually use my lunch break at work to catch up with emails but I’m snowed under at work and have been for a while now, so everything is pushed into the evenings or using my iPhone. I’ve now built around 25 portfolios for subscribers for next season based on the info they’ve given me (no two are the same!) but it feels worthwhile when I get some of the feedback from the guys.

I think there can be very few services in the market where you can enter the season with as much confidence as my systems can give you and although no one can guarantee success at this game, I personally love following systems I have confidence in and I’m sure the others following feel the same.  Seeing historical results, P&L graphs and drawdown graphs may not be everyone’s cup of tea as at the end of the day, the past is no guarantee of future success but it definitely helps the mindset if you know before the season starts how many bets to expect each week, what sort of volatility you will experience and what sort of betting bank you need.  Of course, the past performance will also help you set profit targets and I think this is a massive advantage of following the systems next season. 

Anyway, all of this has meant that the blog has suffered and considering I’m wanting a break before the bets start in September, I don’t expect the blog to pick up until the start of September.  I’ll keep working with subscribers for the next two weeks if they want my help but after that, I’ll draw a line under this and take a break before the bets start on the systems.  I feel like that can’t come quick enough as between work and this, it takes its toll on the mental state and I’m nearly sick fed up of Excel at the moment, so I’ll need to recharge my batteries in that week off!

One other thing I’ve been doing in the background is getting a process set up to get the bets out.  I’ve touched on this before on the blog but getting bets out for 41 systems and keeping 6 sets of ratings (plus another model and 2 Under/Over systems)  updated for 10 leagues when there are games spread over a Friday to Monday on a weekend and then Tuesday and Wednesday in midweek is nearly impossible.

It makes me chuckle when I think of a typical football ratings service with one set of ratings on the go for maybe the UK leagues only. I’m doing that multiplied by 4 and then throwing in 2 sets of ratings for the Euro leagues for good measure! I’m topping it off with 3 SMG models and 2 Under/Over systems. :)

I suspect once I get this season out of the way, I’ll need to look at things in the cold light of day and decide how I move forward. Running 41 systems is going to be an absolute killer this season and I’m not sure I know myself how I’ll manage it yet, never mind tell any of you reading this! People who do this for a full-time job (supply bets) would struggle to do what I’m attempting to do next season and yet, I’m doing it at the same time as holding down a very demanding full-time job.  I’m trying to not think too far ahead though and the key for me and the service as a whole is to repeat the success of the last two seasons.

Before I go, I should mention that it was good to read Rowan’s blog tonight about Summer of Football and the fact that he’s now thinking about his portfolio betting a bit differently. It’s taken me a little bit of time to cotton on to the whole ROC v ROI thing too as in the first season, I was determined to try to get a very good ROI from my footie portfolio but last season, I ended up with a lower ROI but a much higher ROC. I’ve not even started to look at my own footie portfolio for next season but I can guarantee you that I’ll definitely be having less bets than last season but I’ll be using a higher stake than ever before but more importantly, my betting portfolio will be geared at maximising ROC and personally, I’ll not be too fussed about what ROI my portfolio achieves next season.  ROI for show, ROC for dough. ;)

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