I think I’ve had some fairly decent feedback regarding
the reviews I’ve written so far. Had a few tweets and emails from subscribers
and I think the general feeling I’m picking up is that these reviews are
starting to open up people’s minds to the fact the service isn’t only about the
6 Est Combined systems. Being honest, it’s difficult during the season to stand
back and take stock of what is happening at times and that’s partly why I spend
so long reviewing all the systems after each season. I actually learn a lot
about the systems myself from reviewing them in depth and I try my best to drop
the odd hint or idea about how we use the knowledge going forward. Part of the reason my own betting portfolio
did so well last season was because I learnt a lot from the reviews last
Summer!
One of my long-term subscribers who happens to be a mathematical
statistician by trade has correctly pointed out that my statistical
significance section is useless and makes no sense at all. Appears a Chi-Square
test isn’t the correct thing to use for what I’m doing given the summarised
results and therefore, the results for the P-value are inaccurate.
I knew it was a bad idea to dip my toes into statistical
analysis given it’s not my background at all (people often think because of my
job and footie modelling, I know lots about stats and maths but I actually
dropped maths at university as it was my worst subject ;) ). Anyway, given
this, I think I should drop this statistical measure from the subsequent
reviews. Happy to hear from anyone via email who can give me something to
measure my summarised results by that actually makes sense. Only suggestion so
far is multiplying ROI*Bets but not a fan of this myself although it allows me
to rank systems which is what I’m looking for really.
On to more important things. The two parts of the eason review
I’ve most looked forward to writing for a while are the next two parts. The New
Combined systems have just completed their first season and the results have
been stunning. Likewise, the Misc systems (particularly the Similar Games
Systems) have completed their second season and the results have been amazing
too. Hence, I expect most subscribers are going to be looking seriously at
whether they take the plunge with a New Combined system next season or a
Similar Games system as part of their portfolio.
Similar to what I said on the last review, for the
detailed analysis section, I’ve used the last 3 seasons worth of data. Hence,
two seasons are backtested and one season is live. The last season of
backtesting was a losing season, so I think there is some weight to using the
last 3 seasons worth of results to try to draw any conclusions once we drill
down into the results.
For any new readers, these systems are obviously combined
systems from the other 5 systems 31,32,33,41 and 42. Hence, 31-41 means a team
that appears on system 31 and 41.
Season 2012/13
Performance
These systems started the season well and at one stage,
looked like they were going to achieve a crazy return this season but the last
few months were more of a struggle. Even so, looking at the results for each of
the 6 systems, they are very good and look like they have great potential going
forward.
In terms of ROI, it’s pleasing to see the two highest
systems lead the way. System 33-41 achieved an ROI of 35.5% from 103 bets and
system 33-42 achieved an ROI of 30.5% from 91 bets. Not bad for their first
live season and although the bet number isn’t great, it’s slightly better than
the Est Systems 8-21 and 8-22 which makes these systems slightly more powerful
I think although with only one season behind them, it’s too early to be jumping
to that conclusion.
Given the fact system 32 didn’t have the best of seasons
itself, 32-41 and 32-42 struggled a little bit but even so, an ROI of 9.3% and
11.6% is much better than the 5.8% that system 32 achieved, so cross referring
the bets has worked well.
I think system 31-41 did well in its first season and an
ROI of 7.7% across 612 bets is respectable. I think the system that did best
from this whole set of systems is system 31-42 and to achieve an ROI of 14.8%
across 366 bets in its first season is outstanding. 42 is clearly a better
system than 41 and this shines through in this result.
Overall, a profit of 214pts from 1,641 bets (13% ROI) is
a great return for the first season for these Combined systems. As a comparison,
the Est Combined systems achieved just over 16% ROI in their first season, so
although the New Combined systems look like they’ve started well, they have
started as well as the Est Combined systems.
All Live Results
Since this is the first
season, the same comments apply from above in terms of the returns.
Looking at the ROC figures, I think the figures are
very healthy indeed. System 31-42 leads the way with a ROC of 108.3% last
season. Amazing performance I think and it will be interesting to see if it can
follow it up next season with a similar performance.
System 33-41 isn’t far behind with a ROC of 91.3%
and then you have 31-41 with a ROC of 86%. The other systems all achieved very
good ROC’s of between 51.5% and 69.4%.
I think it’s pleasing that these systems not only
obtained a high level of ROI but also a very high ROC too. The advantage these
systems have over the Est Systems is the bet turnover and therefore, the ROC
potential is greater with the New Systems over the course of a season.
Targets for 2013/14 Season
Similar to most of the
systems I’m reviewing, the targets for next season don’t look overly stretching
if we’re only looking at last season but I’m always wary of the fact that you
don’t want to be too bullish after one good season. The targets are all lower
than what was achieved last season and therefore, even if the systems don’t
repeat this season next season, there is still hope the targets could be met.
31-42 leads the way with a
target ROC of 77%, closely followed by 31-41 with a target of 65%. The other 4
systems have targets of between 40% and 50%. Considering the lowest ROC for
last season was 51.5% on any system in this group, the targets aren’t
impossible.
One thing I should mention
is the bet number. When you only have one season’s worth of live results, you
can’t be sure that the bet number we saw last season will be repeated again
next season. Some systems seem to pick up bet volume and other systems reduce
bet volume and trying to second guess the bet volume at times is difficult, so
again, if we find these systems have less bets next season, the targets may be
difficult to achieve.
Detailed Analysis (Not going to discuss this too
much given the fact it is a mixture of backtested and live results)
Performance by
Season
A couple of things to comment on here.
Firstly, the systems made a loss during backtesting
two seasons ago which is the first ever systems I’d built that had a losing
season during backtesting! This is basically what put me off these systems this
season and ultimately, they have shown the loss to be a blip I think.
The bet number is very interesting though as since
they went live, the bet number is much higher than during backtesting. Discussed this before on the blog but
backtesting will never be a proxy for live results since the odds are captured
at different times and given the odds are important in deciding where the bets
go on the systems, if I run the systems at the odds at different times, I’d get
very different results.
Interestingly, the higher bet number is all on the
lower combined systems. Systems 33-41 and 33-42 have a similar number of
results as backtesting. The results from this season are much like the results
from backtesting in 2010/11 on these systems. The higher bet number is coming
from the lower combined systems and I suspect there is a trade-off here between
the strength of the bets and the number of bets looking at the ROI.
You can see the impact the draw had two seasons ago
where AH0.5 made a profit and yet, backing outright was loss making. Last
season, backing outright was profitable but AH0.5 was loss making. Maybe the systems
got no luck two seasons ago but got plenty of luck last season? Hard to know
for sure but I would have been happier if the systems made a better return when
covering the draw. Implies that when the teams weren’t winning, they were
losing! I much prefer to know teams are drawing when not winning. :)
Performance by
League
All the leagues are highly profitable although the
SPL and League One have the lowest ROI. Some interesting trends by League where
I see that the highest combined bets on League Two are poor but the lower
combined bets in that league are fine! Small samples as always though, so more
than likely to be variance.
Performance by
League and Season
Some leagues look great last season, others look rubbish!
Can’t base any decisions on one season though and the past data is hard to
fathom I think.
Performance by
Home and Away
Right, I do find this very interesting. Home bets do not
look anywhere near as good as Away bets on these systems. That’s the complete
opposite to the Est Combined systems if you remember. A 19.1% ROI on Aways and
yet, a lowly 4.3% on Homes.
First thing that pops into my head would be to pick the
Aways from these New Combined systems and Homes from the Est Combined systems
and see how the results look. Obviously, a bit of backfitting going on in my
thinking here as I’m picking the best bets from both sets of systems but it’s
definitely something to consider.
I know that on the Est Combined systems, I showed in the
past it was better to stake more heavily on Homes but this wouldn’t be the same
here. It’s important that people don’t take a broad brush approach to these
sort of things and what may seem like a good idea for some systems won’t work
on them all.
Interestingly, you can see that the Homes are badly
affected by draws as the returns are quite similar across each of the betting methods.
Can’t say I’ve ever seen this before too often and I suspect the Homes must be
affected a fair bit by draws given the average outright odds are 2.22, so the
AH0.5 odds would be heavily odds on, so making a 4.3% ROI by backing at heavily
odds on is very rare.
Performance by
Home and Away by League
Lots of small data sets that are losing money here
but with one season’s live results (and one season included which is loss
making), I think we need to see another season of live results before we jump
to conclusions. BSq Prem Homes, League One Homes, Premiership Aways and SPL Homes are all loss making! A
little strange considering the overall returns but all it means is the Aways
must be much better for each league which fits in with what I said above with
Homes v Aways.
I think quite a few people are going to be
interested in these combined systems next season but I think the key thing from
this review is the fact that Homes look a little dodgy and Aways seem to have
huge profits for outright betting but I’d be slightly wary of using AH betting
on the Aways after last season’s performance where the teams tended to win or
lose!
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