Unlike last
Summer, I’m not going to be reviewing these new Euro systems in any great
depth. I’ve made my feelings known earlier this Summer but I personally have
zero faith in new Euro these ratings I’ve built after seeing the results last
season.
I’ve basically
rebuilt these ratings from scratch but I have tweaked a couple of things in the
rating building process to hopefully overcome the issues I had last season. The
biggest change is the fact that you will see opposing teams appearing in the
systems!
One of the
things I decided quite early on with the UK ratings was that I would never have
a conflicting bet on any of the rating algorithms. There is a built in rule
that determines that this can’t occur. Last Summer, I spent a while looking
over the Euro ratings as there seemed to be a lot of conflicting bets at times.
I applied the same rules as per the UK ratings and forgot all about it.
Before I
started building the new ratings, I was curious how much this has had an impact
on the Euro systems last season and it was much bigger than I thought if I’m
honest. Admittedly, it’s not helped by the fact the ratings would favour the
team with the higher % value from the TFA rating and in 95% of cases, this
would be the big priced away team. However, what I found in the Euro ratings
last season was a number of strong home teams were knocked out as one of the
algorithms threw up a big value away bet in the game and the ratings then dropped
the home team and the away team appeared on one of the systems.
For example,
you had a team appearing on E1, E2, E3, E6 and E7 and yet, didn’t make it onto
any of the systems as the opposing team had made it onto E1 too. Hence, the
opposing team stays on E1 and the other team is removed.
Anyway, rather
than try to be smart again this season, I’m not going to apply these filters
and therefore, we will see conflicting bets on some of the systems. I’m just
trying my best to remove as much intervention as I can from the ratings process.
Looking
quickly at the data, it looks a little strange to see two teams from the same
game on the same system or conflicting bets on the same combined system but I
think this makes me feel better as it least it removes one variable from the
results which skewed the results a little last season.
My concern is
obviously the draw then and in a game where we have both teams to win, the draw
will really hurt the results of the systems but the backtested results all have
this too.
So, here are
the results from the backtested seasons.
In terms of
going forward, I would take these results with a pinch of salt based on what
happened last season. These are the targets which the Euro systems are going to
be judged against:
As you can
see, all the targets are fairly conservative based on the backtested results but being honest, if these systems
could achieve a profit this season, I’ll be over the moon. That’s the target,
first and foremost.
In terms of
following these systems, my view hasn’t changed. I wouldn’t touch them with a
bargepole!
No comments:
Post a Comment