(This was written on Friday afternoon but didn’t get an
opportunity to post it until this morning. After yesterday’s heavy losses
again, adds a little more context to my comments below about what happened two
seasons ago!)
This is the results update for last weekend and the
midweek games. To say it has been a poor start this season is maybe a little
bit of an understatement although the midweek was a little bit better than the
weekend but the overall result was still a loss in midweek too. Been in this
situation before as I reminded someone on Twitter this week and the start this
season seems to mirror the start from two seasons ago whereby my ratings didn’t
start well. Two seasons ago, the losses in the first month were substantial
(much worse than where they are at the moment) but the systems followed up with
8 winning months in a row. No guarantee
we’ll see the same bounce back here but it’s too early to be panicking just
yet.
Here’s the results by system…..
Est Systems
Only 18 winners from 85 system bets and a loss of
36.30pts. You can see that the returns improved as the draw coverage increased
and therefore, the systems have hit a little too many draws but even so, no
matter how you played the bets, it was impossible to escape from a hefty loss.
A really slow start to the season for these systems. To try to put it into context of the season
two seasons ago, these systems only hit 63 winners from 274 bets (23% strike
rate) and a loss of 31.4% was created (86pts) in the first month then.
So far this season, 23 winners from 96 bets (24% strike
rate) and a loss of 36.9% (35pts).
As you can see, these systems are tracking pretty close
to the performance then. Still plenty of time left this month for the systems
to create a bigger loss and get closer to the performance from two seasons ago!
On the other hand, if they start performing like we know they can, they could
still end the month in profit.
For those that think we may be onto something with the
first month proving difficult, last season, these systems achieved a profit of
73.2pts (26% ROI) in the first month and if you go back 3 seasons, it was 49pts
profit (17.5% ROI). Hence, it looks like the systems may go good/bad/good/bad
for the first month of the last 4 seasons!
New Systems
A very similar story here really as the Est Systems. A
loss of 48.79pts from 127 bets. Only 29 winners were found.
Although these systems were impacted by the poor start
two seasons ago, it wasn’t as bad as we are seeing now. These systems “only”
lost 62pts from 482 bets then. So far this season, it’s a loss of 43pts from
150 bets. Hence, with a lot more bets to come this month, these systems could
easily outdo the poor performance from two seasons ago.
As for last season, as many will recall, these systems
started last season on fire and made a profit of 121pts from 388 bets. Hence,
it’s a massive disappointment to see them struggle so far this season.
A poor start to the season for these systems too but in a
couple of months last season, we saw these systems produce profits in excess of
100pts, so any loss could be recouped quickly as long as the hole at the end of
this month isn’t too deep!
Misc Systems
Given these systems are predominantly linked to the
previous two sets of systems, it’s not surprising in the least to see these
systems really struggle so far this season. Only 14 winners from 80 bets and a
loss of 33.40pts.
A 31.5pts loss from 90 bets this season so far and a
really poor start. Again though, this is actually in line with two seasons ago
where a loss of 34pts from 112 bets was created. We’re just a little bit worse
off than that at the moment although the bet number for this month is going to
be much higher as a result of TOX, STOY and STOZ having much more bets than
that previous season.
The fact the systems TOX, STOY and STOZ have started
poorly is more frustrating given they follow a different method than my other
ratings but so far, it has been very difficult to find winners on any systems.
Under-Over
Systems
A little bit of irony here that these systems have
started the season off well. 6 winners from 9 since the last update and a
profit of 3.51pts. Overall this season, 1.5pts profit from 11 bets. I would
have taken that on any other system so far this season given the start! Early
days though and I’ll be surprised if these systems do much better than
break-even again this season based on what I saw last season. I’d love these to
show that they have an edge and I’d happily follow them (I don’t mind where I
make money betting!) in future but we’ll see what happens.
Draw Systems
I think the first comment I should make (since I want to
be as honest as I can) is that I haven’t enjoyed following these systems so
far. Not sure what it is but when I’m placing these bets myself, I don’t do it
with confidence. Obviously, with it being the first season, I know the risks
involved and the performance of these systems will not have any real impact on
the performance of my betting portfolio this season but even so, I think my
issue is I struggle with the fact I can’t see I’m getting value.
With many of my other bets, they are well backed teams,
shorten in the market before the game takes place and I sort of see why I have
an edge backing these teams. The problem with the draws for me is that it looks
fairly random and I honestly don’t know why I’m backing some games to be a
draw!
Others reading this are probably thinking to themselves
that they have no idea why they are backing any of the system bets (especially
at the moment!) but I have struggled a little with the draws.
I don’t think my mood was helped by a 97th
minute goal ruining the first maximum bet on the draws this season and to rub
salt in the wounds, the other systems threw up the losing side, so I had bets
on the Away side and the draw and the 97th minute goal turned a nice
profit into a substantial loss for me.
It’s a tricky one but I do tend to go with my gut feel at
this game when it comes to betting. I wasn’t a fan of the Under-Over systems
from the day I built them. I also wasn’t a fan of the Euro systems last season
(or this season) and I was sort of proved right last season unfortunately.
Interestingly, I have been a massive fan of the draw systems since I developed
them but when it has come to placing my bets, I have had my reservations.
I’ll give it a bit more time (can’t stop backing the bets
based on the first few bets I’ve placed!) and maybe if the big game had
finished a draw, my mood would be different but I doubt it.
Anyway, the P&L isn’t too bad and it’s a loss of
15.27pts from 54 bets. To put it in perspective, the big bet was on 11 systems
at 3.52. Hence, the late goal caused an 11pt loss instead of 27pts profit. 38pt
swing in the 7th minute of injury time! Ouch.
This season, 20.7pts loss from 63 bets.
Overall
I can recall maybe 6 updates worse than this one over the
last 4 seasons (maybe been more but I can’t remember every scar!) but a loss of
130pts from 355 bets. Amazing to think a set of ratings and systems could lose
that when they are probably playing against an over-round of 5%-6% at the
prices I’m quoting but it has happened.
I think the important thing for everyone (myself
included) is to keep this loss in perspective and carry on. Yes, it’s
frustrating and annoying to dig ourselves a massive hole but it has been a
tricky start this season. Anyone who watched the scores for the midweek games
will be aware of the fact that if Middlesboro had held onto a 2-0 lead at
Forest, the loss in this update would have been nearly halved. Last weekend,
there were a few late goals against us and although they only turned draws into
losses, for anyone following AH0 or the like, it still hurts.
I would say we are a little worse off than we deserve to
be so far this season but make no mistake about it, the systems deserve to be
losing so far. They’ve not been good enough and at the end of the day, this is
what this game is about. It’s first round to the bookmakers and we probably
lost it 10-8 but having watched the Ricky Burns fight recently, being Scottish
probably means we escaped that round with a 10-9 loss or even a 10-10, so we’re
still in the game.
My issue with the last comment is that when the ratings don't do well, I expect to lose. However, if we suddenly get a few late goals going against us or a little bit of bad luck, add that to the poor start by the ratings and we'll be looking at a substantial loss for the first month. Let's hope things turn tomorrow.
Back after this weekend.
