Monthly Review for September 2014

I think for any new readers, it would make sense to read the review from last September before reading this review. You can find the previous September review here to provide some context around these results.   

The TFA systems are now into their 5^th live season and this is the review of the first month this season. The format of the review will be similar to last season and I’ll look at the results of the various rating algorithms and then the systems that are filtered off the back of the ratings. I’ll deal with the UK outright bets first, then the UK Draws and lastly, the two types of European bets. With 6 different sets of bets now, there is a lot to discuss in these reviews but I’ll try my best to not make the reviews too dry (easier said than done at times!).

To recap, we have 61 live TFA systems this season. In addition, I know quite a number of subscribers are no longer using the UK outright systems at all for their betting and they are simply using the 4 algorithms and the value ratings to derive their own portfolio of bets to follow. Therefore, it’s important that as well as the 61 outright systems, I track the performance of the value ratings on each of the algorithms.

As discussed in the previous blog post, September 2014 has been the best month since my ratings went live for Home bets and the worst month for Away bets. It’s important we keep this in mind when looking at the rating and system results for September as we don’t want to draw any incorrect conclusions.

As usual, if anyone has any questions, please leave a comment or drop me an email.

Est Systems

Here’s the results for rating algorithm 1 split by value band:

37 winners from 95 bets on algorithm 1 and a loss of 2.1pts (-2.3%). The lowest value bets lost 5.5pts from 44 bets. Bets with a value of 5%+ made 3.3pts from 51 bets.

A loss of 2.3% can never be described as a good month but last season, this algorithm lost 19.4pts from 67 bets (-29%).  Based on this stat alone, it’s hard to get too downhearted about a small loss in the month.

Here’s the breakdown between Home and Away bets:

We can see that we hit a profit of 11.5pts from 49 Home bets and a loss of 13.6pts from 46 Away bets. Last season, this algorithm had 46 Away bets (lost 23.3pts) and only 21 Home bets (3.9pts profit).

Two things to take away from this. Firstly, the changes I made in the Summer to this rating algorithm have increased the number of Home bets as I outlined in the Summer. I expected more Home bets on all algorithms and with the removal of the minimum odds stipulation for Home bets, we now see the odd short priced Home bet appear on all algorithms. Both these factors contribute to more Home bets and after this month, I think we can see the benefit of this.

Secondly, given how difficult it has been for Aways bets this September compared to last September, I’m amazed the Away loss wasn’t even worse! This may be wishful thinking on my part (time will tell!) but I believe the algorithm is a much better algorithm than the algorithm I had last year for Aways. Obviously, it’s difficult to prove and one month doesn’t tell us much but I strongly believe a loss of 2.3% this month on this algorithm is a great result given the underlying results. Without a doubt, this September is more difficult than last September and yet, we have done a lot better overall. I think this will serve us well over the rest of the season.

Here’s the results for rating algorithm 2 split by value band:

27 winners from 71 bets and a loss of 1.9pts (-2.6%). The lowest value bets made a profit of 5.1pts from 33 bets and bets with a value of 5%+ lost 7pts from 38 bets.  A bit of a strange result given the fact that lower value bets tend to be much worse performing bets but it’s a small sample of bets and is going to be skewed by the Home/Away split since Away bets tend to be higher value and we know these would have had a nightmare this month.

Similar to algorithm 1, a 2.6% loss isn’t a disaster given the underlying results. Last September, this algorithm lost 16.4pts from 54 bets (-30%).  Much better than last season and this season was tougher.

Here’s the breakdown between Home and Away bets:

11.6pts loss from 40 away bets and a 9.7pts profit from 31 Home bets. Last season, the algorithm had 39 Away bets and lost 19.1pts and made a profit of 2.8pts from 15 Home bets.

Similar comments to algorithm one. We are seeing more Home bets than last season (twice as many) and this has really helped smooth the returns this month and should hopefully help the systems and service smooth the returns going forward. In addition, the Aways bets have performed much better this season than last season which again gives me hope that the changes I’ve implemented on the algorithm have been for the better!

Overall then, a small loss on both algorithms to start the season but compared to last season, the algorithms have performed much, much better which I’m putting down to the increased number of Home bets and the improved performance of Away bets.

How did the systems fare with trying to filter these bets?  Here’s the results for all 11 Established Systems:

121 winners from 342 bets for a loss of 41.8pts (-12.2%). Last season, the equivalent numbers were 60 winners from 262 bets for a loss of 92.4pts (-35.3%).  Similar comments to above I think. Never good to lose so many points in a month but compared to last season, it’s much better.

Looking at the results by system then, one thing that strikes me is the fact that the combined systems have had a shocker. The filtering from system 6 and 21 were shocking and this has led to massive losses on some of the combined systems. Those from last season will remember the same issues were apparent all season and it’s slightly frustrating this season has started the same way even though the algorithms have changed significantly!

System 6-21 has had a really bad month which is a little surprising considering 6 & 21 haven’t had a disaster but as you start to work down the combined systems, it’s not pretty at all.

In summary then, a tough month for the rating algorithms but I think they did better than last season and I’m quite pleased with how they performed. The combined systems are a different kettle of fish and it’s been a terrible start for these systems. Off the back of a terrible season last season, I think these systems now have massive question marks against them. The long-term results are dipping quickly and the systems have gone from looking like very solid systems to systems with a massive question mark hanging over them. One to watch over the next few months I think and I have no reservations about retiring systems which I feel are no longer adding anything to the service.

New Systems

Here’s the results for rating algorithm 3 and split by Home/Away:

Overall, a 2.6pts profit from 84 bets (3.1%). 8 winners from 43 Away bets and a loss of 11.7pts (-27%). 25 winners from 41 Home bets and a profit of 14.3pts (34.8%).

Looking at the results from last September, an overall profit of 3.8pts from 84 bets. 11 Away winners from 57 bets for an 18.2pts loss and 20 winners from 27 Home bets for a 22pts profit.

Apart from the fact that both years had the exact same number of bets (amazes me when things like this happen!), the key difference is again the split of Home/Away bets. We have gone from 67% Away bets and 33% Home bets to nearly a 51%/49% split. This is again due to the changes on the algorithm in the Summer although I’m a little surprised there weren’t more Away bets. Again, I actually think it’s good there weren’t more Away bets as no doubt we’d have lost more money on the Away bets!

I think given the Underlying results, it is a brilliant result for this algorithm to be making a 3.1% profit this month. I said the exact same last season but this is what separates algorithm 3 from the other 3 algorithms. The algorithm does a great job in controlling losses during difficult spells which means it never needs to dig itself out such a big hole as the other algorithms at times!

A really solid start for algorithm 3 this season again. Let’s hope it can build on this like last season.

Here’s the results for algorithm 4 split by Home/Away:

A loss of 8.9pts from 77 bets (-11.6%). Only 7 winners from 43 Away bets for a loss of 20.1pts (-46.8%). 19 Home winners from 34 bets for a profit of 11.2pts (32.9%).

Similar to above, looking at the same results last season shows an overall loss of 8.9pts from 98 bets. 11 winners from 63 Away bets for a loss of 23.8pts (-37.7%) and 21 winners from 35 Home bets for a profit of 14.9pts (42.4%).

The key thing here is the reduction in bet number. Algorithm 4 was the algorithm that got most work during the Summer as it was the worst performing algorithm and I felt like it needed tightening up as well as the other changes like more Home bets.  I can see I’ve tightened it up (21 less bets) and I can see I’ve adjusted the % of Home bets (35% last year has increased to 44% this year) but in terms of the overall results, things haven’t improved at all. If anything, you could argue I’ve made it worse as it lost an identical amount of points in both seasons (another amazing stat!) but it did it from more bets last year!

I guess the jury is out on algorithm 4 and the Away performance this season has been terrible. Even allowing for the tough Away conditions, to have a -46.8% ROI is about as bad as you can do I think and I think this rating algorithm has a lot to answer for.

I haven’t really commented on the value bands for algorithm 3 & 4 but it’s difficult to draw conclusions when all the Homes bands are profitable and all the Away bands are loss making. It then becomes a case of how many bets are in each band and if you have more Home bets in a band than Aways, it makes the results look better!

A poor start for algorithm 4 then and I think similar to the Est combined systems, there are a lot of question marks over system 41.

Let’s see how the New combined systems did with these results on the rating algorithms. Here’s the results for all 11 New Systems:

An overall profit of 7.7pts from 397 bets (1.9%).  Last season, the equivalent numbers were an overall loss of 87pts from 448 bets (-19.4%).

Given this September has clearly been a more difficult month than last September based on underlying results, the turnaround in these systems in 12 months is amazing. I won’t have been alone in having doubts about changing my algorithms over the Summer and refreshing them but I think after the first month, I’m quite proud of the fact I haven’t appeared to mess anything up! For these systems to make a profit this month is unreal and looking back historically, any time the underlying results have been as tough as this, these systems have suffered large losses in total.

I think the filtering on system 41 is clearly pretty good and to turn an 11.6% loss into an 18% profit is about as good as it gets. The filtering on system 31 is less reliable but it has been that way for a long time now. System 32 made a loss and system 33 made a profit but I’m much less confident about the filtering from system 31. I’ve said this before but not sure you need to worry about filtering system 31 too much as the algorithm is pretty good I think.

Due to the fact system 41 had a poor month, it has been reflected in a very poor month for system 31-41 which will have impacted a number of us. I had my reservations about system 31-41 over the Summer as it was clear system 31 was a brilliant system and system 41 less so, so using 31-41 always runs the risk that system 41 spoils the party and it has really pissed on the parade of system 31 this month.

System 31-42 is a popular system amongst the subscriber base and it’s nice to see a solid start this season after a horrible time last season.

Overall, over the moon with the New system results for September and if they can produce the same profits over the next few months as they did last season, I’ll be pretty happy I think.

Misc Systems

Here’s the results for the systems:

78 winners from 201 bets and a loss of 3.1pts (-1.5%). Not the best of starts for these systems but given the difficulty of the month and the other comments above about the rating algorithms and systems, a 1.5% loss isn’t a bad start to the season.

Last season, it was 58 winners from 232 bets and a loss of 65pts (-28%). Considering we know this September is tougher than last September, then it really helps to put this season’s results in context!

Looking at the systems then, 6-32, STOY and STOZ made small losses and 21-31, 6-21-31 and TOX made small gains. Again, given the fact 3 of the algorithms made small losses, I think these results reflect this well.

Here’s the splits of the results between Home and Away:

24 winners from 113 Away bets for a loss of 28.9pts. 54 winners from 88 Home bets for 25.9pts profit. 56% Away bets.

Looking at last season, 22 winners from 164 Away bets for a loss of 77.3pts. 36 winners from 68 Home bets for a profit of 12.2pts. 71% Away bets.

As well as the turnaround in performance from last season, the other significant shift is the change in mix between Home and Away bets. A big movement towards Home bets and this has really helped smooth the P&L so far this season.

Overall then, a small loss to start the season for these systems but compared to last season, it feels like a great month! ;)

Draw Systems

NB. Going into the season, these were the systems that I had most confidence in as I barely touched the ratings over the Summer since they were only built the previous Summer and the results last season in their debut season were brilliant in a season when the strike rate for draws was the lowest it had been since the 2006/7 season.

Here’s the results by system:

Only 10 winners from 95 bets and a loss of 59.8pts (-62.9%).  OUCH!!!!!

Comparing this to last season then, 39 winners from 176 bets and a loss of 38.3pts (-21.8%). 

Before commenting on the results, it is worth remembering that Sep-13 was very similar to Sep-14 in terms of underlying draws. The strike rate was 24.5% last year over 184 bets and 24.7% this year over 227 bets.

Clearly, we may have a problem here.  I’ve no idea why the number of draws has dropped so significantly from last season and more importantly, I can’t really explain the sizable loss either. What you can’t see here is that the systems suffered another large loss in the first weekend of October, so the results are currently even worse than we’re seeing here!

It’s difficult to add much to this. 95 system bets is a tiny sample but the filtered systems didn’t hit a winner and the combined systems hit 2 winners from 35 bets! Clearly, it’s not been a good start and is much worse than last season which was a bad enough start.

On one hand, part of me thinks this is just really, really bad variance and because it was a tough month for draws, the systems have struggled badly. The other part of me looks at the results last weekend, sees a very high strike rate for Draws and realises that my systems made another large loss and the filtered systems couldn’t hit a winner again!

Clearly, panic is setting in just a little for me personally as about 25% of my betting portfolio is made up of UK draw bets this season and this was an intentional ploy on my part given the results last season. I won’t be alone here and anyone who has taken on a draw system or two after last season must be scratching their head!

I guess if I look at the overall live results, the ROI is still decent enough and therefore, there is probably nothing to worry about but I’ll feel a bit better when I see these systems hit a few winners. I think the jury is out on these systems and another few weeks like this and I think I’d maybe have to really start looking at betting banks etc. for the systems and how much has been lost and whether the banks need revisited etc.

Let’s hope they turn the corner soon as if not, my fingers will be burnt along with a few others I suspect.

Euro Systems

Here’s the results so far:

Only had 1 bet this season and it was a winner. 8.6pts profit from 8 bets (107%) This was the first season the Euro bets had a bet in September as the bets didn’t tend to start until October! So, it’s better than last season then. :)

Euro Draw Systems

Here’s the results so far:

First season for these bets, so not any history to go on but 5 winners from 11 bets isn’t a bad start! A profit of 4.8pts from 11 bets (43.6%),

My only reservation about the Euro Draw systems is that as my ratings have been waiting for the first 6 games to pass in every league, the number of Draws in most leagues have been amazingly high! Therefore, these bets are going to kick in at a peak which added to my comments about how difficult it is historically to make money betting on draws in these leagues fills me with a little fear. Given the run the UK draws have had and my stakes on these, it’s an easy decision for me but I’ve reduced stakes on the Euro Draw systems this season before the bets even started! Happy to take a backseat approach to these systems like I sort of did last season with the UK Draws (still overstaked these IMO!) and when I see results, I’ll start to adjust stakes upwards once I get comfortable.

Overall, 83.5pts lost from 1,054 bets so far this season.

The two big concerns for me are the Est Combined systems (26.6pts loss) and the UK Draw systems (59.8pts loss). These two sets of systems account for 86.4pts lost which is more than the total loss the systems have suffered this month. We’ll keep an eye on them going forward but both these sets of systems have started October poorly last weekend, so I could do with an upturn soon or we’ll need to possibly make some tough decisions about whether or not we believe this is variance.......