Apologies for
the lack of results updates on the blog so far this month. Since I completed
the monthly review for October, trying to keep up to date with the results has
been nearly impossible and I spent a lot of time at the weekend bringing things
fully up to date. One issue with having so many rating algorithms and so many
systems to track is that Excel doesn’t cope too well with the data due to size
limitations and therefore, I have sheets that do the ratings and keep a track
of the underlying results for all matches and then I have results sheets that
simply track the performance of the systems. I guess the good thing about the
way I have this set up is that my lack of time in terms of updating the system
results has no impact on my ability to get the next set of ratings generated on
each algorithm. What it does mean though is that I spend a lot of time having
to input results when I don't keep on top of it!
This update
basically covers all games up to the weekend. There are no midweek bets this
week, so this will take us up to around the 21st of the month.
However, there are still two Saturday’s remaining this month, so a lot of water
still needs to flow under the bridge between now and month end. So far though,
it has been a good first half of the month.
Profits have been made on all the various sets of systems and it does
feel like things have taken a turn for the better. I’ve been here before this season (a few
times!) and therefore, I really don’t know what will happen next but we’ll see
what happens.
Est Systems
A profit of
58.44pts from 148 bets so far this month. A really nice return and it’s needed
after the start this season. All of the systems have generated a profit
although looking at the returns of the higher combined systems, it’s
disappointed these are better given the results on systems 6 and 21. Again, the
filtering of the systems hasn’t worked anywhere near as well as historically
which has been the story of the season so far for the service as a whole.
New Systems
A profit of
42.6pts from 225 bets. Not as good a return as the Est Systems unfortunately
but then again, they didn’t dig themselves into the same size of hole before
this update as the other systems! I think the weekend past sums up the season
to date. 31 and 41 did well, 31-41 did well but all other 5 combined systems
lost badly. Hard to take I think for those not following 31-41 but it’s the way
the season has gone so far. Trying to filter the bets down has seen the systems
remove all the best bets and keep the rubbish.
Misc Systems
A stunning
return for these systems and the first time I think I can remember these
systems performing like they can this season. A profit of 70.34pts from 124
bets. I know after the last two seasons, many people are relying on these
systems in some way or another in a portfolio, so it’s nice to see them perform
well. System 6-32 has only made a small profit compared to the other 5 systems
but that’s a function of system 32 having a really had time at the moment.
Hopefully it improves as the season progresses.
Draw Systems
A solid start
to the month for the draw systems to build on the returns from last month.
27.83pts profit from 173 bets. These systems are growing on me just a little
and after a shaky start, they are starting to perform well. Interestingly, the
higher volume systems have really struggled but I think that’s to do with the
underlying trading conditions being very difficult for draws so far this
season. As conditions improve, I’m hopeful the higher turnover systems start
improving a little.
Euro Systems
These systems
have been very impressive so far this month although they are a bit hit and
miss. They had one weekend where they hit everything and then followed it up
with a weekend where it hit 1 winner from all the bets at high odds. 58.2pts
profit from 132 bets. Early days for
these systems as they only started in the middle of October but it has been a
solid start to the season this time but last season started OK if I remember
correctly.
Under-Over Systems
The black
sheet of the TFA family revert to type. A loss of 2.18pts from 21 bets. Turning
into another poor month for these systems.
Overall, a
profit of 255.23pts from 823 bets. An overall ROI of 31%.
Given the
season the systems have had to date, it feels great to be posting these results
but as I alluded to a few times above, depending on which systems people are
following, the results for subscribers over this period could be quite
different. Overall, the systems are
about break-even I think but given a large profit is showing on the Euro and
Draw systems (which aren’t popular systems to follow this season), then many
(most?) subscribers will still be in the red at the moment.
In terms of a
personal point of view, my TFA portfolio of bets is in profit now and given the
losses I had at two different times this season, this feels pretty good to be
in the black. Obviously, it will feel better if I can stay in profit this time
but at the end of the day, I’m back in the game and I’ve suffered two horrendously
bad drawdowns this season that has wiped out nearly 50% of my betting bank each
time. The fact both drawdowns came so close together is a killer mentally but I
feel more positive now I’m in profit again.
No comments:
Post a Comment