Since I had
some time last night, I thought it was worth updating the weekend results
before the midweek. It is a fairly big midweek coming up with 4 bets accounting
for a helluva lot of system bets for the service, so the month is either about
to get a whole lot worse or potentially, we could be in profit after tonight. Given
the way the month has gone, I expect we’ll be in a bigger mess than we are now
but let’s see what happens.
In terms of
the weekend, another tough weekend. It’s
tough going at the minute as I keep on saying. Tough reading some of the losses
being suffered by Steve, tough losing money on my own portfolio, tough knowing
others have lost money too.
One thing I’ve
drilled into people over the first 3 seasons is that changing strategy isn’t
really an option mid-season as you should see your season portfolio through. In
addition, experience has led me to believe that people tend to jump from the
poor performing systems to the best performing systems and as luck would have
it, they do it at the wrong time and it comes back to bite them. I did this in
season one and it bit me very hard as I increased stakes at the worst possible
time, so from this time on, I’ve always suggested sticking with your portfolio
until the season end.
Now we’re into
our 4th season, I’m starting to think that there is a flaw with this
strategy. The flaw being that if your portfolio is set up wrongly in the first
place, is there any hope that things will turn around? I guess this is
something that isn’t easy to answer and it may be the case that as soon you
change strategy, your old portfolio would pick up but at the moment, those
portfolios struggling the most have been the same portfolios struggling since
the first week of the season.
Anyway, as
always, the results updates on the blog are for the systems as a whole, so here’s
the results for the weekend past.
Est Systems
Only 5 winners
from 32 bets and a loss of 16.1pts. Pretty much losses across the board and the
higher combined systems (7-21 thru to 8-22) continue to haemorrhage money this
season. I’ll do a quick post on the Est Systems later as I think it’s worth
looking at their fall from grace this season.
New Systems
Not quite as
bad on these systems and they scraped a profit. A profit of 4.6pts from 46
bets. 10% ROI. I’d take every week!
Misc Systems
3 winners from
23 bets. Shocking really and a loss of 11.86pts. The only surprise was STOZ
found a winner the other systems didn’t but this system will need to find many
more of these before the season is out to dig itself out of the hole it is in.
Draw Systems
8 winners from
38 for a loss of 10.48pts. System D6 is on a bit of a run. 2 winners in the
last 22 bets. Could do with a few winners soon to steady the ship again.
Euro Systems
34 winners
from 64 bets and a good weekend again for these systems. 22.8pts profit from 64
bets. The standout systems at the moment are the ones that had most to prove
coming into the season after the mess I made with my first foray into the
European leagues last season.
Under-Over Systems
1 bet, 1
winner. A profit of 1.10pts.
Overall, a loss
of 10pts from 204 bets. Similar to what I’ve been saying for the last few
weeks, the profits are appearing on the ‘wrong’ systems for the majority of us
and therefore, the returns are being held up by systems which are unproven
coming into the season.
I said this on
Twitter at the weekend but this is mentally draining seeing other bets do well
without my money on them. At the start of the season, the bets I had most
confidence in (along with everyone else following!) was the UK bets but at the
moment, I have to be honest and say my confidence in the Draw and Euro bets is
higher. No surprise really considering the profits these systems are
consistently posting but it’s tough to take personally. I feel like I’m forever
looking at what I could have had if I took a chance on some unproven systems
and yet, I played safe and went in heavy for the systems with the proven record
over the last few seasons. Last season, I got burnt badly by the Euro systems
(not so much financially, more mentally!) and I suspect that crept into my
thinking in the Summer when building my portfolio and giving advice to others
before the season started.
Below is the
P&L graph of the system I have put into Cassini’s FTL league this season. I
wanted a ‘unique’ system to provide an overview of the service and I’m sorry to
say that I think this system does what was intended. It is now down for the season
again after the last few weeks and I think the returns are a fair reflection of
the service this season. Still hoping the system can end in profit and
hopefully climb back up the FTL league but at the moment, I’m looking behind me
rather than in front of me giving the run the system is on.
Let’s hope for
some better results soon....
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