The first half of April has been much better than all of
March I think. It’s like chalk and cheese compared to last month but as always,
the underlying results tell the story of what’s happened. We have just
experienced the most favourable two weeks of the seasons for Away bets I think
and thankfully, my ratings caught a good chunk of it. Frustratingly, they
didn’t catch more away winners and I’m a little disappointed to only be posting
the profits I’m posting but it sort of sums up the season so far. I don’t win
enough during the good times and I lose too much during the bad times!
As has been the case too often this season for my liking,
teams have lost 2 goal leads late on and these results would have been over
120pts better off if one team had not drawn 3-3 after leading 3-1 with 10 mins
left or if a team had not conceded an equaliser in the 95th minute
through a debatable penalty with the last kick of the game! This 120pt swing can be added to the other
swings suffered early on this season when things like this seemed to be common
occurrence!
The strike rate for draws has been very, very low so far this
month and I think it’s great credit to the draw systems that they are basically
break-even this month so far. Hasn’t been an easy time for draws this season
and the fact the Draw systems have been my best performing systems says a fair
bit about these systems.
The month has been a nightmare for backing all Homes and
my Home bets have struggled too. Again, not going to beat them up too much
given how difficult it has been but when the Away strike rate is higher than
the Home strike rate in a month, you are going to struggle to make money with
Home bets!
A really strange month so far but given the way this
season has went, I’m not in the least bit surprised. I think the work I’ve done
on the underlying results this season has really helped me think about this
game differently now and I suspect it’s potentially going to change the way I
think about ratings now if I continue with my football ratings into the future.
Anyway, here’s the results for the month so far: (I’ve
assumed the 3pts on bets tonight are lost)
Est Systems
A profit of 10.38pts from 76 bets. Given the underlying results, disappointing
these systems haven’t capitalised more so far this month.
New Systems
A profit of 43.04pts from 172 bets. A really strong start
to the month after the disaster of last month. 4 profitable days this month
from 4. Last month had 2 profitable days from 16 if I remember correctly!
Misc Systems
Draw Systems
A profit of 0.28pts from 177 bets. Considering the low
strike rate of draws so far this month (less than 20%), to break-even and
manage to hit 51 winners from 177 is very good.
Hopefully these systems can build on this in the second half of the month.
Euro Systems
27pts profit from 142 bets. I’ve no idea if the Euro bets
have performed better than the underlying market conditions or not this season
as I don’t have the same level of analysis available at the moment. However, I
am aware of the very low strike rates for Draws and therefore, I suspect the
Euro systems are operating in very favourable conditions this season.
Therefore, I would suggest these systems may not be performing as well as I’d
have hoped but we’ll see what it looks like at season end.
Under/Over
Systems
1.62pts profit from 7 bets.
Overall, a profit of 112.31pts from 652 bets.
The positive start this month wins back around 1/3 of the
losses from last month. However, if two games had not suffered late
turnarounds, we would have recouped around 2/3 of the losses from last month.
It’s a thin line at times and ultimately, too many times this season, the
systems have been on the other side of the line.
It’s a really busy end to this month with two full sets of fixtures over the Bank Holiday weekend coming up. Given the way the season has gone, I wouldn’t like to guess what happens next!
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