One
of the outstanding pieces of work I had this Summer was to pull together a
tracking sheet to monitor the underlying results for the Euro leagues. I’d sort
of been doing it in the background but it was only earlier this week that I got
on top of the email exchanges with subscribers and given the fact my baby
hasn’t arrived yet, I thought it was a good opportunity to complete this piece
of work and do a quick blog post on it.
As
you will remember, it was only last season that I started tracking the
underlying results of the UK leagues closely. I’ve always been acutely aware of
the fact that my system results are heavily influenced by what happens to the
underlying results but I didn’t ever feel the need to pay too much attention as
at the end of the day, I can’t change the underlying results. However, what I
found last season was that without knowing exactly how the underlying results
were behaving in the short-term, it was impossible to explain some of the
variance I was seeing in the results on a monthly basis. I set up a
little tracking sheet to monitor the results on a monthly basis and it really
helped me with the mental side when I was experiencing some of the ups and
downs.
So,
I’ve now completed the same piece of work for the Euro leagues.
Being
honest, I’d looked at something like this before in early 2010 before I built the first UK
algorithms as back in the day, my intention was to build Euro ratings first
rather than UK ratings. However, my first few attempts at building Euro ratings
weren’t too successful as I couldn’t find a way to create an edge on Aways
(looking at Draws hadn’t even been a consideration) and when I looked at the
underlying results, I could understand why. Basically, from 2006/07 to 2009/10,
backing all Homes blindly was pretty near break-even in these top 4 Euro
leagues (Italy, France, Spain & Germany). Backing Aways was heavily loss
making and therefore, trying to find an edge with Aways was very tough.
Anyway,
roll forward 4 seasons and now I have two seasons proofed results behind me in
the Euro leagues for Homes/Aways (not the greatest results but a foundation to
build from) and next season will see the first season of Euro Draw bets.
Therefore, it seems like it was worth investing the necessarily time to create
something similar to what I have for the UK bets. I have data going back
to 2006/07 but similar to the UK underlying results, I’m going to concentrate
on the last 4 seasons. The further back you go, the less competitive the prices
are and therefore, the results look a bit different to the most recent years.
So,
here’s the results for the last 4 seasons:
A
really interesting picture and considering I’m about to embark on new Euro Draw
systems, let’s just say my confidence is a little lower having seen these
underlying results!
I
think the first comment is the fact that if following Homes only, you should
struggle to make a loss in these Euro leagues long-term based on these results.
Many of my blog readers will be aware of other tipster services that specialise
in Homes in Euro leagues and looking at the Underlying results, I can see why
they have gone down this approach.
Interestingly,
in my first season of Euro ratings, my Home bets were terrible and therefore, I
think this highlights how weak the ratings were I built. I knew that of course
and that’s why I binned the ratings and started again with new Euro ratings
last season. Also probably explains why I ended up with such a high % of Home
bets on my rating algorithms now compared to what I had before. If you are relying
on Aways in these leagues to make a profit, you will struggle I think long-term.
Looking
at Aways, it is a tough place to make money in these leagues and we’re looking
at a loss of around 3.9% over the last 4 seasons.
However,
compared to the Draws, a loss of 3.9% doesn’t look too bad! The Draws have lost
6.4% over the last 4 seasons, last season lost 8.5% and the 2010/11 season lost
10.5%. Not exactly an easy place to make money!
If
I look at the month by month view, we see lots of months where backing all
Homes is profitable and considering this is the first time I’ve really looked
at this, I find it very interesting.
20
winning months from 37 if backing all Home bets. Amazing really but then again,
given the overall results, shouldn’t be too surprised but it shows how
consistent this method is.
12
winning months from 37 for Draw bets shows the difficulties playing in this
space. Only 2 winning months in the last 12 shows how difficult it has been
recently in these leagues if backing Draws.
16
winning months from 37 for Away bets and I was surprised it was as high as this
given the issues Aways have generally.
Similar
to what I do with the UK underlying results, I’ll be keeping tabs on these Euro
results every month and when writing monthly reviews, I’ll try to use what I
have seen to hopefully understand some of the performance issues we’re seeing on
a monthly basis.
So,
does the above change my thinking at all about the Euro Systems and Euro Draw
Systems?
In
terms of the Euro systems, I think last season was a pretty easy season for
backing Homes/Aways and therefore, maybe I’m not too surprised that my Euro
systems made a decent profit. I guess if I go back another season, it wasn’t
that much more difficult and my ratings bombed badly, so I think that
highlights deficiencies in my ratings for the first season which is what I
concluded myself based on the poor performance. I said at the end of last season that I still
thought my Euro systems had a lot to prove and I think the above backs up my
thinking. Let’s see how they do this season.
In
terms of the Euro Draw systems, I think the above has opened my eyes to how
tough this place is to make money. Being honest, having seen Cassini’s results
over the last two seasons, I realised it wasn’t exactly an easy place to make a
profit but I’m not sure I’ve seen too many tougher groups of data to try to
find a betting angle over the last few years.
Last
season, backing Draws in UK leagues was very tough with an ROI of -5%. This was the
worst ROI since season 2007/08 for these leagues (also the lowest strike rate
since then) and therefore, I was overly excited about how my Draw systems had
outperformed the underlying return. For 3 of the last 4 seasons, the Euro
Leagues have had a worse ROI than this!
Unless
conditions get a bit easier for Draw backers (higher strike rate), I would
struggle to believe that my ratings could make a profit next season. It’s not
impossible (my UK Draw systems did it last season) but experience tells me that
when the underlying results are tough, making a profit from a very high number
of bets is just as tough. The odd system with lower turnover can do well but the higher turnover systems may struggle if the losses are as bad as 3 of the last 4 seasons.
Of course, as I have pointed out before, tracking underlying results is great for explaining what has happened historically but in terms of explaining what may happen next, they are about as useful as a chocolate teapot. Some will say the Euro leagues are due more draws after the last few seasons whereas other will say that the trend has changed and the market hasn’t caught up and therefore, there is no value in draw bets in these leagues unless the strike rate increases. Let’s see what happens this season!
No comments:
Post a Comment