There are still outstanding midweek bets to be
played before we can draw the month of October to a close. This update takes us
up to last night’s games and the next blog post will cover the remaining games
that take place this week before I can crack on with the monthly review.
This update is very similar to the previous
updates this season and the Away bias has continued throughout this month.
Every time I think things are settling down and we are seeing a more normal
strike rate for Away wins, a set of fixtures come along with barely any Away
wins and it’s another loss for my ratings and the systems. It’s definitely been
a case of one step forward, one step back this season so far but as I keep reiterating
in my results updates, standing still at the moment is actually quite good.
Last season, the systems had dug themselves into a horrible hole by this stage
of the season and yet, the results this season for Aways have been even tougher
than last season.
I guess there is a underlying theme here that
for two seasons in a row, finding Aways winners early on in the season has been
very tricky. It’s actually the 3rd time in 4 seasons this has been
the case and therefore, it does lead me to think we should possibly consider
adapting the way we play Aways early on in the season but not worth thinking
about for the moment.
Here’s the results for the last two weeks.
Est
Systems
A profit of 9.79pts from 251 bets. Not a great
return but we can see from the AH results that the Draw has been a major pest
on these systems recently. Can’t recall too many updates where the AH0.5
returns are so much better than the outright returns for all bets but we see
that here.
Not a great update again for these systems and
it does feel like they are ploughing through treacle at the moment and have
been for the last 12 months or so. 10pts profit in the last 2,871 bets (last
season and this) tells its own story but as always, it’s not a huge sample of
bets. The previous 3 seasons saw 263pts profit, 293pts profit and 240pts profit
from 2,784, 2,669 and 2,973 bets respectively. It has been a bad 2,871 bets but
then again, this counts for 25% of the live bets to date. In total, 806pts
profit from 11,297 bets since the systems went live. I expect another season
like last season will see most of these systems retired at the end of the
season and this is maybe the right thing to do. I’ve tried refreshing the
algorithms and although I believe it has helped smooth the P&L, the jury is
out on whether or not the profitability will improve. We’ll know more as the
season progresses but this may be the swansong for all systems other than 6 and
21.
New
Systems
A profit of 28.98pts from 266 bets. A very
similar story to the Est Systems with the AH returns being a lot better here
which highlights the Draw being an issue.
Misc
Systems
A profit of 11.76pts from 168 bets. AH returns
were again better but not to the same extent as on the previous systems.
Draw
Systems
A profit of 16.7pts from 145 bets. A slightly
better performance from these Draw systems but still miles behind the results
of last season. They did start very slowly last season and by the end, I couldn’t
praise them highly enough. Let’s hope it’s the same again this season.
Euro
Systems
A profit of 24.6pts from 73 bets. A solid start
to the season for these bets although there are a number of big priced bets
this midweek which will determine whether or not they have a winning month.
Euro
Draw Systems
It was all sounding so good until now! A loss
of 52.5pts from 81 bets. No winners from 72 bets last weekend was a bit of a
rude awakening for these systems.
I touched on this in the email last night but
this weekend was the first real weekend for these bets with all leagues being
rated. One thing that struck me was the sheer quantity of bets (to be fair,
this was seen by the backtested results) but also the number of bets
overlapping between the Euro systems and the Euro Draw systems. I’m playing
very small stakes this season on the Euro Draw systems (wish they were smaller
after the weekend past!) but even so, backing Euro bets and then covering the
Draw in so many games doesn’t appeal to me.
So many games were basically
against a hot fav who went on to win which meant I was picking up losses on
both bets and if this was to continue, I would have serious reservations about
Euro Draw systems being part of the portfolio. Any edge my systems have in
these Euro leagues isn’t going to be massive and therefore, giving away a bit
of the edge by backing other outcomes in the same game isn’t a long-term
strategy.
Overall, a profit of 39.33pts from 984 system bets. To say it’s been tough going is an understatement but to grind out profits like my systems are doing at the moment is actually quite pleasing. Things will turn at some point and as I’ve said since day one at this game, making profits is easy when things are going well, holding onto profits when things aren’t going well is the difficult part. So far, the systems have done this quite well this season but I look forward to the weekends where we see a high % of Away wins and we make big profits!
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