Going to keep this post short and just update
the results for March so far. It has been a disaster of a month so far (as bad
as I’ve seen) and it’s difficult to find the time to sit down and write some
thoughts about everything as I’ve not had the time. I keep wanting to get
involved in some Twitter debates over the last few weeks but I can’t even get
time to read all the tweets, never mind give a point of view or hold a
conversation. Some of the threads moved so quickly but I’ll try to find some
time to jot down my thoughts on the blog next week, I've a few days off work.
As for March so far, not a lot has went right.
I’m on course for my 2nd worst ever betting month in terms of the monetary amount lost but in terms of pts lost in my betting portfolio, I’ve
already exceeded the worst historical month I’ve had before now.
It’s amazing how quickly things change and from
a season high and all time betting high on 17th Jan, I’ve lost over
a 5 figure sum which for someone with my stakes, is a helluva drawdown! Like
everyone else following the systems, I’m starting to question what I’m doing
and I think there has to be a massive doubt about whether or not I’ll continue
with the football betting & the service next season. Being honest,
continuing with the football betting isn’t that big an issue and this season
has probably been my most relaxing in terms of actually following the bets. I
have a pretty nice process set up, I’m doing pretty well compared to the
advised odds (c.+1.5%) and I’m probably following my betting returns closer
than I have ever done. Shame I'm counting up losses more often than not but at least I know what I'm losing!
My issue is the service but as I’ve
discussed before, they do go hand in hand to a degree. The chances of me always
having the discipline to do the football ratings without the service isn’t very
high and I know for a fact that if I didn’t have the service responsibility, I
would have stopped following the football before now as quite simply, I don’t
have the time for it. The fact I can manufacture the time required by staying
up late and working myself into the ground is down to the service but given the
last 6 months or so and how difficult I have found combining the football
ratings with my career, I would have definitely stopped following I suspect.
Anyway, it’s easy to sit here off the back of a
substantial drawdown and say I’m stopping the service next season but it would
be a knee-jerk reaction. I’m going to get through to the end of the season,
look at things fresh and then decide whether or not I stop the service. If I
continue with the football betting, I’ll need to do the ratings anyway, so I
need to see if I can fit a service around this or not. I’ll share more thoughts
over the next few months as I need to get writing again. When I’m losing money
like this, the blog is a great help to get some thoughts down and even if no
one replies or reads them, I always feel better for getting it off my chest I
find!
Here’s the results for March so far:
Est
Systems
A loss of 44pts from 505 bets. Both algorithms
losing badly, the filtering making things worse and the combined systems losing
too as a result.
New
Systems
A loss of 91.17pts from 571 bets. System 31 has
had a shocker of a month (down 23pts) and system 41 has had the usual month (a
losing one!). Overall, a horrible loss so far with the weekend to come!
Misc
Systems
A loss of 44.68pts from 338 bets. In line with
system 31, STOZ has had a disaster of a month and a loss of 16pts. All 6
systems are losing this month, so no real comfort to take from these systems at
the moment either.
Draw
Systems
A loss of 110.43pts from 256 bets. To say these
Draw systems have dropped off a cliff is not an understatement and the last 600
system bets or so have been terrible!
Euro
Systems
A loss of 9.4pts from 333 bets. Not too bad
considering the losses on the other systems this month! :)
Euro
Draw Systems
A loss of 88.5pts from 353 bets. Same old story
with these systems. Might well be the best lay the draw systems I’ve ever seen!
Not much good if backing the draw though.
Overall, a loss of 388.18pts so far this month
from 2,356 bets. If tomorrow goes badly, could smash the record for the worst month ever by a long way!
I’ve no doubt given the numerous discussions on
Twitter recently, the conclusion for this post should really be that the
systems are regressing to the mean loss of 2% and I’ve somehow fluked the first
4.6 seasons of profits but not sure I buy into this myself. I’ve no doubt
people get lucky for periods of time but I don’t believe it can stem from
Sep-10 to Feb-15 and then my luck ran out completely. No one can be that
unlucky to lose so much in a single month anyway, so it has to be variance! ;)
No comments:
Post a Comment