Introduction to AH Betting

One thing I’ve not really touched on as yet on the blog is all the work I’ve done on Asian Handicap betting. Being honest, I can’t write one blog post on the subject and expect everyone to know exactly how this will work in future and what help it may be to people following the systems but I feel a little bad at the moment as I’m quoting these returns on the results updates table and people may be looking at them and think, jeez, that’s rubbish!

However, as always, there is a story to go with the numbers and unlike other ways of betting, you can’t just use AH betting across the board and expect the returns to be reasonable. This won’t be the case and more often than not, trying to use AH betting on systems or bets where it isn’t optimal can actually turn a winning system into a losing system quite easily. Hence, it’s not really something people can use unless they have analysed the results for themselves and understand the power of it.

Anyway, as a little taster of what will be coming this Summer (AH betting is on the list of things to cover), here’s a quick look at it in action.

As you know, I’ve commented fairly frequently on the blog this year about systems TOX, STOY and STOZ. I had massive hopes for these systems this season but if I’m honest, they’ve let me down in the sense I thought these would possibly become some of my best systems.

Now, as always, disappointment with TFA systems needs to be considered in context. Some tipsters would cut their arm off to achieve the results these systems have achieved this season during a below average season and if I slot these results into a table of footie tipsters this season, they aren’t doing too badly at all. However, when I slot them into the TFA systems table, they are mid table which is disappointing to me.

Here’s the results this season.


A 4.9% ROI if backing all the games outright or a 3.8% ROI if backing DNB. As I say, over a decent sample of games, if it was being judged against other football ratings or football systems, it would be holding its own this season.

However, as I commented on earlier this season, the Home bets on these systems have actually been much more in line with backtested results. Here’s the Home bet results this season.


A 19% ROI this season from backing the Home bets. Not bad for a system that has been disappointing this season! Interestingly, if backing DNB, a return of 8.1%. Very few of my systems have good returns from backing DNB on Homes as teams are too short when covering the draw also.

So, clearly, Homes have done OK this season. Here’s the results of the Aways:


Again, none of this is news to blog readers as I said earlier on this season these systems have struggled all season with Aways. An ROI of 0.1% if backing outright and an ROI of 2.4% if covering the draw too. Well, the first thing that is highlighted here is the fact that you did better by covering the draw. Again, this is pretty rare apart from extreme cases where you hit an abnormal number of draws.

If you look at the very right hand side of the table, you’ll see the return from AH +0.5. This is basically a double chance (dutch) bet on the draw and selection to win. The ROI from this method of betting is a remarkable 7.7% this season! Clearly, if you can make a 7.7% ROI from backing the draw and the selection to win but you are breaking even backing the selection to win, you are hitting an abnormal number of draws this season.

A quick look tells me the average odds on these away selections are 7/2 this season, so it wouldn’t take a great deal of luck to turn a break-even season for the Aways into a winning season.

Putting aside the fact that the system has probably suffered from a high number of draws, if you were backing the draw (either AH+0, AH+0.25 or AH +0.5), you effectively turn an OK system into a winning system and a good one at that.

Of course, I’m writing this post with hindsight and not foresight. Did I know that this system would create an above average number of draws this season and be more profitable if covering the draw? Clearly, the answer to this is No but similar to those people following DNB this season, people can make informed decisions at the start of the season and as long as their bank reflects the reduced risk, they can still end up with a very decent return on capital and a smoother ride. Running simulations, analysing backtested results, performing What-if analysis etc. are all ways to help people understand which systems suit their betting style.

As we move into discussing AH betting more and looking at ways to smooth our P&L with the systems, we leave ROI behind and move towards comparing systems on ROC as I’ve said before. Of course, you can’t compare tipsters or other footie systems on ROC due to the moral hazard involved (tipsters would do better by understating the betting bank required) but if using the same set of systems from one source, as long as you use a consistent approach to calculating the betting bank, you can make informed decisions around which systems to follow and which betting method you use.

Ultimately, that’s my hope for every TFA subscriber who’s following these systems. Subscribers get to a position where they can make informed decisions around what systems to follow and win, lose or draw, they follow the systems with 100% confidence in what they are doing and believe in what they are doing. That’s not the same as saying I want everyone to maximise profits in an identical manner. Everyone has a different risk aversion and different objectives and whereas a 50% return on capital (i.e. increase in betting bank) may be seen as a good season for one subscriber, it may be deemed as a poor season for another subscriber. That’s not a bad thing in my eyes as we're all individuals.

Another long post.......

A few things to discuss today so this could be a long post. Stick with it!

OK, a few people have written to me in the past week asking for priority places for next seasons service. I suspect it’s been driven from the comment in the recent SBC profit report suggesting TFA could be in line for Hall of Fame status come the season end. As discussed a few times on the blog already in the past few months, I don’t want to look too far ahead at this game and my first task is to get us to the end of the season in one piece. I do come across as a bit pessimistic at times in emails and on the blog but anyone who went through what I went through at the backend of last season will never look too far ahead again! Hence, I’m not going to start thinking about plans for next season until the last game is played this season.

As I’ve already let slip on the blog, work is already underway behind the scenes for next season (new Euro Systems, AH betting options, new Under/Over 2.5 systems, new website etc.) but a lot of this won’t be ready until midway through the summer. In addition, I don’t need to add too much to the current offering I suspect as most people will continue to follow the UK systems regardless of what the next set of system results look like (which would be my advice to any new subscribers anyway next season). Therefore, although I’m expanding and hopefully finding new edges, I don’t expect people to subscribe on the basis of what the new systems may achieve next season.

As I’ve said to those that have contacted me, it’s great to know that there is interest in the service for next season (I can’t contrast how different this is to this time last year as very few people showed any interest!) but I’ll give those who want to join next season ample opportunity over the summer. Any spaces will be filled on a first come first served basis and will be advertised via the blog, website or SBC forum. Hence, keep reading the blog, the forums I frequent or check out the new website once it is built!

One question I haven’t been able to answer is what will happen with the blog. Having proofed the systems for the UK leagues for 2 seasons now, I feel like the blog has possibly run its course in terms of these systems. What I’m unsure about is what I will do with the other systems (which to be fair, haven’t been developed yet!). I suspect I may continue to use the blog next season to proof these newer systems and to give people a chance to watch how these develop. I don’t want to say that’s a definite as clearly, I don’t know what these systems will look like but I like the idea of possibly moving onto these other leagues and hopefully building up a readership as I try to create myself an edge on these other leagues.

One thing I love about this blog is the freedom when it comes to analysing stuff and almost a freehand with graphs/tables etc. which means it is an easy tool for me to report back on for any analysis. I have used wordpress before and I’ve used various forums when posting analysis but nothing beats good old blogger in my opinion. Hence, that’s one reason why this blog may remain even if I disappear to a proper website.

Anyway, as you can see, I haven’t given it too much thought as yet (well I have but haven’t formed a conclusion yet!) but as soon as I know more, I’ll let readers know. One thing that does disappoint me a little with this blog is the lack of interaction and comments at times as I can see the readership on the blog is at an all time high (and has slowly increased as more people realise how good these systems are!). Even though there are a number of people following the systems in some shape or form (I know from the hits at the times the blog bets appear that this could be in 3 figures), I barely get a comment at times. I don’t need people to continually tell me how great the systems are but at times, it does feel like I just post bets for people to make money on and I don’t get much back from it. I get more emails from subscribers with comments and I’ve got about 1000% more readers than subscribers this season!

Right, onto more important matters, the results!

As part of the work I’ve been doing on the website (asking for some subscriber feedback), a couple of subscribers have commented on the way I show the daily results on the blog. Since day one, I’ve always shown the P&L for every game played so people can see that the results are being reported accurately. Admittedly, I don’t expect everyone to sit and check every game I show a result on but it was more a question of showing this level of detail in case people thought I would try to misinterpret the results. I think we’re now past this stage and they’ve suggested it’s much easier for them and people reading the blog if I just show the P&L by system for each day of matches. I usually discuss the results at this higher level in my results posts anyway but I don’t show them in a table.

As always, I’m here to please (amazed no one else has asked for this change before now!) and therefore, I’ll show the results by system for each day where games are played. Hence, if people wanted to sum these up, they could get to the monthly results and if they sum these up, they could get to the season results and if they summed these up, they could get the all time results!

So, what has happened since my last results update? A helluva lot of games!

This update includes the games from Friday 6th to Monday 9th. Many teams played twice in this time, so it was nearly two full fixture cards in most leagues.

Algorithm one pinpointed 33 bets. 11 wins, 6 draws and 16 losses. A profit of 3.3pts for H/A betting and a loss of 0.1pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm two has had 21 bets. 7 wins, 2 draws and 12 losses. A profit of 6.3pts for H/A betting and a profit of 1.4pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm three has had 35 bets. 10 wins, 7 draws and 18 losses. A profit of 2.1pts for H/A betting and a loss of 0.6pts for DNB betting.

Not much more to add to the above. A fairly low strike rate for winners but there was a high average odds for the bets as I commented on when I posted the bets for each set of games, so it’s pleasing to see every algorithm has made a profit of some sort of the busy period. DNB has clearly struggled a bit with a low number of draws and therefore, the teams selected tended to win or lose which always means using some form of Asian Handicap betting is going to hurt the returns.

As always, how the systems used these bets is the thing that matters the most to us.

The established systems made a profit of 30.2pts from 86 bets. The DNB profit was only 9.9pts. That’s an ROI of 35% for H/A and 11.5% for DNB. Within these systems, the combined systems had 24 bets and generated a profit of 12.8pts (53% ROI). A nice start to the month for the combined systems as they aim for their 7th profitable month in a row.

The newer systems made a profit of 1.4pts from 141 bets. DNB was a loss of 12.2pts.

As you can see, a really poor start to the month for the newer systems after their amazing exploits last month. Quite simply, the newer systems were punished for having too many bets at big prices who didn’t perform well. Most of the damage was done yesterday with a high number of big priced aways and only one of them winning.

There you go then, a lot of bets in a short space of time and as always, depending on which systems you follow and which method of betting, you could have achieved anything from a decent start to the month to a break-even start to the month.

The average odds just keep going up!

Here's the bets for today. Another amazing number of aways at big prices and it's bordering on the farcical at the moment. Average odds are 4.72 which is about as high as I've seen since on a single day since the systems went live. I can't help but feel it's a matter of time before they suffer a complete washout one of these days. Hopefully not today though!

Good luck if following. I suspect it will be a rollercoaster afternoon for the systems.


The Football Analyst Bets for 9th April

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09/04/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Stockport Stockport 7.00 5.33
09/04/2012 League 1 Bournemouth v Huddersfield Bournemouth 3.20 2.27
09/04/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.75 2.69
09/04/2012 League 1 Charlton v Walsall Walsall 6.50 4.99
09/04/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Tranmere Tranmere 5.00 3.69
09/04/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Oldham Oldham 7.64 5.99
09/04/2012 League 2 Barnet v Crawley Barnet 4.74 3.48
09/04/2012 League 2 Burton v Morecambe Burton 2.50 1.76
09/04/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Dagenham Dagenham 4.33 3.15
09/04/2012 League 2 Port Vale v Macclesfield Port Vale 1.91 1.38
09/04/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Cheltenham Rotherham 2.40 1.69
09/04/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Bradford Bradford 6.50 4.88
09/04/2012 League 2 Swindon v Northampton Northampton 7.74 6.02
09/04/2012 Premiership Aston Villa v Stoke Aston Villa 2.30 1.61
09/04/2012 Premiership Everton v Sunderland Everton 2.00 1.44

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09/04/2012 Premiership Everton v Sunderland Everton 2.00 1.44

System 8
None

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09/04/2012 Bsq Prem Telford v Tamworth Tamworth 3.30 2.36
09/04/2012 Championship Peterborough v Notts Forest Notts Forest 2.75 1.94
09/04/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.75 2.69
09/04/2012 League 1 Charlton v Walsall Walsall 6.50 4.99
09/04/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Tranmere Tranmere 5.00 3.69
09/04/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Oldham Oldham 7.64 5.99
09/04/2012 League 2 Crewe v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.00 2.90
09/04/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Dagenham Dagenham 4.33 3.15
09/04/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Bradford Bradford 6.50 4.88
09/04/2012 Premiership Everton v Sunderland Everton 2.00 1.44

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09/04/2012 Championship Peterborough v Notts Forest Notts Forest 2.75 1.94

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09/04/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.75 2.69
09/04/2012 League 1 Charlton v Walsall Walsall 6.50 4.99
09/04/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Tranmere Tranmere 5.00 3.69
09/04/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Oldham Oldham 7.64 5.99
09/04/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Dagenham Dagenham 4.33 3.15
09/04/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Bradford Bradford 6.50 4.88
09/04/2012 Premiership Everton v Sunderland Everton 2.00 1.44

System 6-22
None

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09/04/2012 Premiership Everton v Sunderland Everton 2.00 1.44

System 7-22
None

System 8-21
None

System 8-22
None

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Newport Newport 4.50 3.25
09/04/2012 Championship Crystal Palace v Southampton Crystal Palace 4.45 3.19
09/04/2012 Championship West Ham v Birmingham Birmingham 3.40 2.44
09/04/2012 League 1 Bournemouth v Huddersfield Bournemouth 3.20 2.27
09/04/2012 League 1 Bury v Colchester Bury 2.71 1.92
09/04/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.75 2.69
09/04/2012 League 1 Charlton v Walsall Walsall 6.50 4.99
09/04/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Oldham Oldham 7.64 5.99
09/04/2012 League 2 Barnet v Crawley Barnet 4.74 3.48
09/04/2012 League 2 Crewe v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.00 2.90
09/04/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Dagenham Dagenham 4.33 3.15
09/04/2012 League 2 Rotherham v Cheltenham Rotherham 2.40 1.69
09/04/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Bradford Bradford 6.50 4.88
09/04/2012 League 2 Southend v Wimbledon Wimbledon 5.25 3.89
09/04/2012 League 2 Swindon v Northampton Northampton 7.74 6.02
09/04/2012 Premiership Aston Villa v Stoke Aston Villa 2.30 1.61
09/04/2012 Premiership Everton v Sunderland Everton 2.00 1.44

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09/04/2012 League 2 Barnet v Crawley Barnet 4.74 3.48
09/04/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Dagenham Dagenham 4.33 3.15
09/04/2012 Premiership Aston Villa v Stoke Aston Villa 2.30 1.61

System 33
None

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09/04/2012 League 2 Barnet v Crawley Barnet 4.74 3.48
09/04/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Dagenham Dagenham 4.33 3.15
09/04/2012 Premiership Aston Villa v Stoke Aston Villa 2.30 1.61

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09/04/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.75 2.69
09/04/2012 League 1 Charlton v Walsall Walsall 6.50 4.99
09/04/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Oldham Oldham 7.64 5.99
09/04/2012 League 2 Crewe v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.00 2.90
09/04/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Dagenham Dagenham 4.33 3.15
09/04/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Bradford Bradford 6.50 4.88
09/04/2012 Premiership Everton v Sunderland Everton 2.00 1.44

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09/04/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.75 2.69
09/04/2012 League 1 Charlton v Walsall Walsall 6.50 4.99
09/04/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Oldham Oldham 7.64 5.99
09/04/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Dagenham Dagenham 4.33 3.15
09/04/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Bradford Bradford 6.50 4.88
09/04/2012 Premiership Everton v Sunderland Everton 2.00 1.44

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Newport Newport 4.50 3.25
09/04/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.75 2.69
09/04/2012 League 1 Charlton v Walsall Walsall 6.50 4.99
09/04/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Tranmere Tranmere 5.00 3.69
09/04/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Oldham Oldham 7.64 5.99
09/04/2012 League 2 Crewe v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.00 2.90
09/04/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Dagenham Dagenham 4.33 3.15
09/04/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Bradford Bradford 6.50 4.88
09/04/2012 League 2 Southend v Wimbledon Wimbledon 5.25 3.89
09/04/2012 League 2 Swindon v Northampton Northampton 7.74 6.02
09/04/2012 Premiership Everton v Sunderland Everton 2.00 1.44

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Newport Newport 4.50 3.25
09/04/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.75 2.69
09/04/2012 League 1 Charlton v Walsall Walsall 6.50 4.99
09/04/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Tranmere Tranmere 5.00 3.69
09/04/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Oldham Oldham 7.64 5.99
09/04/2012 League 2 Crewe v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.00 2.90
09/04/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Dagenham Dagenham 4.33 3.15
09/04/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Bradford Bradford 6.50 4.88
09/04/2012 League 2 Southend v Wimbledon Wimbledon 5.25 3.89
09/04/2012 League 2 Swindon v Northampton Northampton 7.74 6.02
09/04/2012 Premiership Everton v Sunderland Everton 2.00 1.44

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09/04/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Newport Newport 4.50 3.25
09/04/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.75 2.69
09/04/2012 League 1 Charlton v Walsall Walsall 6.50 4.99
09/04/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Oldham Oldham 7.64 5.99
09/04/2012 League 2 Barnet v Crawley Barnet 4.74 3.48
09/04/2012 League 2 Crewe v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.00 2.90
09/04/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Dagenham Dagenham 4.33 3.15
09/04/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Bradford Bradford 6.50 4.88
09/04/2012 League 2 Southend v Wimbledon Wimbledon 5.25 3.89
09/04/2012 League 2 Swindon v Northampton Northampton 7.74 6.02
09/04/2012 Premiership Everton v Sunderland Everton 2.00 1.44

Weekend Bets (Including Today's Bets)

Here's the weekend bets. Probably the highest average odds I think I've seen on the systems in one set of fixtures before. Over 7/2 (4.55) on average this week, so we're definitely into the funny part of the season now.

My ratings are either going to cost me a small fortune over the next few weeks or make a lot of profit I suspect looking at this list of bets.

It was exactly 12 months ago that the wheels came off big time last season. 57 bets in the first Saturday of April 2011 on the established systems, 57 losers. Hopefully this doesn't happen this weekend.

Good luck.

The Football Analyst Bets for 6th-8th April

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/04/2012 Bsq Prem Gateshead v Barrow Gateshead 1.73 1.29
06/04/2012 Bsq Prem Newport v Telford Newport 1.83 1.34
07/04/2012 Bsq Prem Southport v Kidderminster Kidderminster 2.75 1.98
06/04/2012 Bsq Prem Tamworth v Bath Bath 4.50 3.30
06/04/2012 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Alfreton Alfreton 9.00 7.15
07/04/2012 Bsq Prem York v Fleetwood York 3.00 2.15
07/04/2012 Championship Birmingham v Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 7.93 5.98
07/04/2012 Championship Notts Forest v Bristol City Notts Forest 1.80 1.33
06/04/2012 Championship Reading v Leeds Leeds 6.63 4.98
07/04/2012 Championship Leicester v Doncaster Doncaster 8.00 6.19
07/04/2012 League 1 Brentford v Bury Bury 6.00 4.49
07/04/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Bournemouth Bournemouth 6.00 4.52
06/04/2012 League 2 Cheltenham v Barnet Barnet 5.00 3.71
06/04/2012 League 2 Dagenham v Burton Dagenham 2.22 1.57
06/04/2012 League 2 Torquay v Accrington Accrington 5.40 3.98
07/04/2012 Premiership West Brom v Blackburn West Brom 2.00 1.46
08/04/2012 SPL Hibernian v Motherwell Hibernian 3.20 2.29
07/04/2012 SPL St Johnstone v Inverness Inverness 4.33 3.11

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/04/2012 Bsq Prem Gateshead v Barrow Gateshead 1.73 1.29
07/04/2012 Bsq Prem Southport v Kidderminster Kidderminster 2.75 1.98
07/04/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Bournemouth Bournemouth 6.00 4.52
07/04/2012 Premiership West Brom v Blackburn West Brom 2.00 1.46

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/04/2012 Bsq Prem Gateshead v Barrow Gateshead 1.73 1.29

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/04/2012 Bsq Prem Southport v Kidderminster Kidderminster 2.75 1.98
06/04/2012 Bsq Prem Tamworth v Bath Bath 4.50 3.30
06/04/2012 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Alfreton Alfreton 9.00 7.15
07/04/2012 Bsq Prem York v Fleetwood York 3.00 2.15
06/04/2012 Championship Reading v Leeds Leeds 6.63 4.98
07/04/2012 League 1 Brentford v Bury Bury 6.00 4.49
07/04/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Bournemouth Bournemouth 6.00 4.52
07/04/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Rochdale Rochdale 3.48 2.49
06/04/2012 League 2 Cheltenham v Barnet Barnet 5.00 3.71
06/04/2012 League 2 Dagenham v Burton Dagenham 2.22 1.57
06/04/2012 League 2 Torquay v Accrington Accrington 5.40 3.98
07/04/2012 Premiership West Brom v Blackburn West Brom 2.00 1.46

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/04/2012 Bsq Prem Southport v Kidderminster Kidderminster 2.75 1.98

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/04/2012 Bsq Prem Southport v Kidderminster Kidderminster 2.75 1.98
06/04/2012 Bsq Prem Tamworth v Bath Bath 4.50 3.30
06/04/2012 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Alfreton Alfreton 9.00 7.15
07/04/2012 Bsq Prem York v Fleetwood York 3.00 2.15
06/04/2012 Championship Reading v Leeds Leeds 6.63 4.98
07/04/2012 League 1 Brentford v Bury Bury 6.00 4.49
07/04/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Bournemouth Bournemouth 6.00 4.52
06/04/2012 League 2 Cheltenham v Barnet Barnet 5.00 3.71
06/04/2012 League 2 Dagenham v Burton Dagenham 2.22 1.57
06/04/2012 League 2 Torquay v Accrington Accrington 5.40 3.98
07/04/2012 Premiership West Brom v Blackburn West Brom 2.00 1.46

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/04/2012 Bsq Prem Southport v Kidderminster Kidderminster 2.75 1.98

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/04/2012 Bsq Prem Southport v Kidderminster Kidderminster 2.75 1.98
07/04/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Bournemouth Bournemouth 6.00 4.52
07/04/2012 Premiership West Brom v Blackburn West Brom 2.00 1.46

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/04/2012 Bsq Prem Southport v Kidderminster Kidderminster 2.75 1.98

System 8-21
None

System 8-22
None

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/04/2012 Bsq Prem Braintree v Luton Braintree 4.20 3.08
07/04/2012 Bsq Prem Southport v Kidderminster Kidderminster 2.75 1.98
07/04/2012 Bsq Prem Stockport v Lincoln Lincoln 2.97 2.10
06/04/2012 Bsq Prem Tamworth v Bath Bath 4.50 3.30
06/04/2012 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Alfreton Alfreton 9.00 7.15
07/04/2012 Bsq Prem York v Fleetwood York 3.00 2.15
06/04/2012 Championship Reading v Leeds Leeds 6.63 4.98
07/04/2012 League 1 Brentford v Bury Bury 6.00 4.49
07/04/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Bournemouth Bournemouth 6.00 4.52
07/04/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Rochdale Rochdale 3.48 2.49
06/04/2012 League 2 Cheltenham v Barnet Barnet 5.00 3.71
06/04/2012 League 2 Crawley v Crewe Crewe 6.00 4.54
06/04/2012 League 2 Dagenham v Burton Dagenham 2.22 1.57
06/04/2012 League 2 Macclesfield v Shrewsbury Macclesfield 4.55 3.28
06/04/2012 League 2 Torquay v Accrington Accrington 5.40 3.98
07/04/2012 Premiership West Brom v Blackburn West Brom 2.00 1.46
08/04/2012 SPL Hibernian v Motherwell Hibernian 3.20 2.29
07/04/2012 SPL St Johnstone v Inverness Inverness 4.33 3.11

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/04/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Bournemouth Bournemouth 6.00 4.52

System 33
None

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/04/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Bournemouth Bournemouth 6.00 4.52

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/04/2012 Bsq Prem Southport v Kidderminster Kidderminster 2.75 1.98
06/04/2012 Bsq Prem Tamworth v Bath Bath 4.50 3.30
06/04/2012 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Alfreton Alfreton 9.00 7.15
07/04/2012 Bsq Prem York v Fleetwood York 3.00 2.15
06/04/2012 Championship Reading v Leeds Leeds 6.63 4.98
07/04/2012 League 1 Brentford v Bury Bury 6.00 4.49
07/04/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Bournemouth Bournemouth 6.00 4.52
07/04/2012 League 1 Yeovil v Rochdale Rochdale 3.48 2.49
06/04/2012 League 2 Cheltenham v Barnet Barnet 5.00 3.71
06/04/2012 League 2 Dagenham v Burton Dagenham 2.22 1.57
06/04/2012 League 2 Torquay v Accrington Accrington 5.40 3.98
07/04/2012 Premiership West Brom v Blackburn West Brom 2.00 1.46

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/04/2012 Bsq Prem Southport v Kidderminster Kidderminster 2.75 1.98
06/04/2012 Bsq Prem Tamworth v Bath Bath 4.50 3.30
06/04/2012 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Alfreton Alfreton 9.00 7.15
07/04/2012 Bsq Prem York v Fleetwood York 3.00 2.15
06/04/2012 Championship Reading v Leeds Leeds 6.63 4.98
07/04/2012 League 1 Brentford v Bury Bury 6.00 4.49
07/04/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Bournemouth Bournemouth 6.00 4.52
06/04/2012 League 2 Cheltenham v Barnet Barnet 5.00 3.71
06/04/2012 League 2 Dagenham v Burton Dagenham 2.22 1.57
06/04/2012 League 2 Torquay v Accrington Accrington 5.40 3.98
07/04/2012 Premiership West Brom v Blackburn West Brom 2.00 1.46

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06/04/2012 Bsq Prem Tamworth v Bath Bath 4.50 3.30
06/04/2012 Championship Reading v Leeds Leeds 6.63 4.98
07/04/2012 League 1 Brentford v Bury Bury 6.00 4.49
07/04/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Bournemouth Bournemouth 6.00 4.52
06/04/2012 League 2 Cheltenham v Barnet Barnet 5.00 3.71
06/04/2012 League 2 Torquay v Accrington Accrington 5.40 3.98
07/04/2012 Premiership West Brom v Blackburn West Brom 2.00 1.46
07/04/2012 SPL St Johnstone v Inverness Inverness 4.33 3.11

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06/04/2012 Bsq Prem Newport v Telford Newport 1.83 1.34
06/04/2012 Bsq Prem Tamworth v Bath Bath 4.50 3.30
06/04/2012 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Alfreton Alfreton 9.00 7.15
07/04/2012 Championship Leicester v Doncaster Doncaster 8.00 6.19
06/04/2012 Championship Reading v Leeds Leeds 6.63 4.98
07/04/2012 League 1 Brentford v Bury Bury 6.00 4.49
07/04/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Bournemouth Bournemouth 6.00 4.52
06/04/2012 League 2 Cheltenham v Barnet Barnet 5.00 3.71
06/04/2012 League 2 Torquay v Accrington Accrington 5.40 3.98
07/04/2012 Premiership West Brom v Blackburn West Brom 2.00 1.46
08/04/2012 SPL Hibernian v Motherwell Hibernian 3.20 2.29
07/04/2012 SPL St Johnstone v Inverness Inverness 4.33 3.11

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06/04/2012 Bsq Prem Newport v Telford Newport 1.83 1.34
06/04/2012 Bsq Prem Tamworth v Bath Bath 4.50 3.30
07/04/2012 League 1 Brentford v Bury Bury 6.00 4.49
07/04/2012 League 1 Sheff Utd v Bournemouth Bournemouth 6.00 4.52
06/04/2012 League 2 Cheltenham v Barnet Barnet 5.00 3.71
06/04/2012 League 2 Torquay v Accrington Accrington 5.40 3.98
07/04/2012 Premiership West Brom v Blackburn West Brom 2.00 1.46
08/04/2012 SPL Hibernian v Motherwell Hibernian 3.20 2.29
07/04/2012 SPL St Johnstone v Inverness Inverness 4.33 3.11

Bets will appear at 11am tomorrow......

Forgot that there were games on Friday when I posted earlier this week.

The bets will appear at 11am tomorrow morning on here for Friday to Sunday matches.

They'll also appear at 11am on Monday morning for the Monday-Wednesday games!

No Midweek Bets

To save anyone from looking in tomorrow, there are no midweek bets this week. Barnet were the only team deemed as a value bet but they didn't qualify on any of the systems.

Be back on Friday evening at 6pm with the other bets but I'll probably do a post or two this week looking at a few aspects of the season to date.

Monthly Review - March 2012

I’ve updated the monthly review for March 2012 and I’ve also updated the latest system results tab to the end of March too.

Monthly Review – http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.co.uk/p/201112-monthly-results.html (Scroll down to the bottom of the page)

Latest System Results - http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.co.uk/p/latest-system-results.html

As you’ll read in the monthly review, March goes down as the busiest month in the history of the systems. Surprised me a little if I’m honest but I now realise why March felt like so much hard work – it was! As you know, there was a 2 week spell in March where the systems didn’t have a winning day, so to end up with a decent profit on the month is a great feeling.

Looking at the overall system results, things are starting to stack up well and I’ve reached the 7,400 proofed results mark. To achieve an ROI of 9% across so many bets is pretty good and I suspect it’s unbeatable by any set of football systems in the market.

This season’s results for the established systems are better than last season at the moment and the new systems have dragged up their overall ROI to 6.4% across 2,352 bets. Whatever way I look at these results, I can’t help but be proud.

The SBC proof my 6 combined established systems and these have now had 13 winning months out of 16. The last 6 months have also been profitable. Overall, my proofed results on these systems is a profit of 299pts from 1,875 bets. That’s an ROI of 16%. This is split 16.3% last season and 15.6% this season, so not quite reached the standards of last season yet but not too far away.

Overall, so far, so good. Not bad for the first 7,400 bets………