Having email issues tonight. Will try to get the bets sent out asap.
Thursday, 14 March 2013
Wednesday, 13 March 2013
Results Update
This is an update from the midweek games last week, the weekend games and then the midweek games this week. A lot of bets since the last update but things continue to run along OK I think. The Euro systems were the big winners over the weekend and that was long overdue. I was just about losing patience with the Euro bets before the weekend and they haven’t had the best of luck this season but thankfully, I kept the faith and they repaid me a little at the weekend.
Here’s the results by system:
Established Systems
A slightly difficult period for these systems with a loss of 21.37pts from 145 bets. Interestingly, the best performing system since the last update has been system 7-22 (haven’t said that too often this season!) and after reaching a new maximum historical drawdown this season, the system is now in profit! 19 winners in the last 32 bets has clawed back a massive deficit this season and as the saying goes, you can’t keep a good system down.
A few months back, I thought that break-even for 7-22 and break-even overall for the combined systems would be an acceptable result this season given the way things have gone and I was happy to hopefully dodge a very bad losing season. My mood hasn’t changed too much as I know how quickly a losing run can bite again but it’s really good to see all 6 combined systems crawl into some form of profit after a really tough season. A long way to go and they could theoretically still all end up losing this season but I think they have avoided the sort of massive losing season that was on the cards at one stage.
The draw has been a pain since the last update and using AH+0.5 has only seen a loss of -1.48pts, so the systems weren’t too far away from a decent return I suspect.
New Systems
Of course, a good few weeks for the stronger bets in general can’t hide the really poor performance for most of the season from the same bets but it helps to give me some confidence for the run-in.
Misc Systems
No damage done on these systems although again, the draw has been a pain. A loss of 1.48pts from 139 bets but a profit of 21.62pts if using AH0.5.
The STO systems continue to be the star performers and all 3 systems made a profit over a very tricky period. The title of best TFA system of the year will be hard fought at the annual TFA system tipster awards that take place in my head every year and one of the STO systems might have a shot at wrestling the title from system 7-22. 7-22 has been the winner for the first two seasons and although he’s making a late charge to retain his title, he’ll need some miracle results to get near some of the other systems!
Under/Over Systems
I can’t reall this happening before on an update for a decent number of bets but the P&L is exactly 0.00pts from 15 bets. Jog on, nothing to see here…..
Euro Systems
I expect it’s going to take a helluva lot of time to review these systems this Summer as it has been a really confusing season but for the moment, let’s just enjoy a really good weekend before worrying about why it doesn’t happen more often or even before we worry about if we’re going to lose all of these profits!
Overall, a profit of 74.67pts from 715 bets. An ROI of 10.44%.
I can’t recall too many times this season when the Euro systems have created all of the profits generated but it’s nice to see the wealth being spread between the systems a little more!
Monday, 4 March 2013
Weekend Update
A decent start to a new month with a solid performance
from the UK ratings this weekend. The Euro ratings had another tough weekend
and they are in a bit of a slump at the moment. I’m sort of counting down the
weeks to the season end now and with the profits achieved last month, I feel
quite content after a weekend like this weekend. I’d happily take a few more
weekends like this but I suspect we’ll hit a losing run soon with the UK bets.
Feels like one is overdue!
The Euro bets again look disappointing but I watched a
few games closely this weekend and it was very frustrating. Some of the big priced away bets (Nice, Lazio
and Genoa) all had a man sent off when still in the game or before the first
goal was scored! L’orient lost a late goal to draw, Catania were the big home
bet and they lost a 2-0 lead to lose 3-2, Betis lost a 2-0 lead to draw 3-3 and
the teams that did manage to win didn’t appear on enough systems.
I keep looking at the Euro results and keep thinking the
bets are doing slightly better than the P&L but at the end of the day, I
don’t think there is any edge here. I think break-even is probably about the
best they should be doing and therefore, a small loss isn’t a disaster but it
wasn’t what I hoped for this season.
Definitely going to be rebuilding the Euro ratings again
this Summer and I’ll have a second shot at cracking these leagues. Another
trial season wasn’t exactly what I was looking for but the ratings aren’t doing
what they were doing during backtesting. Nothing like it to be honest!
Anyway, here’s the weekend results in detail.
Est Systems
A profit of 17.04pts from 82 games. The base ratings did well and system 6,21 and
6-21 created the full profit this weekend.
The filtering didn’t really help much at all.
New Systems
A really good weekend for these systems I think. Again,
the base ratings did well and system 31 and 41 made a good solid profit. 34.86pts profit from 116 bets.
Misc Systems
The stars of the show this weekend. A profit of 29.55pts
from 58 bets. Great performance and the P&Ls continue to rise at a rate of
knots on these systems. Know it can’t go on forever like this but when it is
like, they make the game look so easy!
Under-Over
Systems
A solid start to these systems this month. 12 bets and a
profit of 4.58pts. 8 winners from 12 bets.
Let’s see if they can somehow build on this but I doubt it!
Euro Systems
A loss of 28.9pts from 107 games. Only a loss of 6.9pts
if using AH0.5 and the draw played a part but not too much.
Overall, a profit of 57.13pts from 375 games this
weekend. Nice start to the month and let’s see if the UK systems can build on
it in midweek……
Friday, 1 March 2013
February 2013 Monthly Review
I’ve not really enjoyed writing the last few monthly reviews as it’s hard to look back at months where the systems are losing but as I think we all know, it’s pretty unrealistic to assume you can make a profit every calendar month. It’s probably worth a quick recap on what has happened before this month before we start looking at February 2013.
The Established systems launched in Sep-10 and started off with 4 really strong months. Jan-11 was a tougher month but still profitable. Feb-11 was the first really bad month and it was a disaster of a month. All the losses were recouped in Mar-11 and then Apr-11 was like Armageddon. A nightmare month and a massive loss on the systems. May-11 recouped a little of the losses. End of the first season, first half of the season was massively profitable, second half of the season was loss making.
Last season started with another Armageddon month in Sep-11. The loss wasn’t quite as bad as the Apr-11 loss but not far off it. A massive hole after the first month of the season. The systems then followed up with an amazing month in Oct-11 and then another tremendous month in Nov-11. Things settled down after that but we saw another 6 winnings months in a row. So,. 8 from 9 winning months last season.
This season started OK with a decent enough Sep-12 but then things got tricky after a small profit in Oct-12. At this stage, the systems had been live for 20 months and had achieved profits in 17 of the months. An amazing achievement I think for any set of systems and to achieve this level of profitability on a monthly basis for football betting is not too common. We then had a bad loss in Nov-12, a much bigger loss in Dec-12 and then a smaller loss in Jan-13. Therefore, after 10 monthly profits in a row, we suffered 3 straight losing months. My confidence took a massive dent, I suspect everyone following was scratching their head and wondering what had happened and of course, the good old systems. What did the systems do?
Well…errr…nothing. They continued punting out the same type of bets they do every week and every month and the combined systems had 158 bets in February. This was exactly the average number of bets over the previous 4 month period. The bet number by month was 157, 166, 161, 149 and then 158 in Feb-13.
So, what happened in Feb-13 to the Established Systems and all the other systems?
Est Systems
191 winners from 385 bets which is a near 50% strike rate. Given the average odds on the systems this month was 2.93, you can see it was a stunning month!
A profit of 127.5pts from 385 bets. An ROI of 33.1%.
Algorithm one made 21.4pts from 88 bets and algorithm two made 14.8pts from 77 bets. Based on this, you would hope that the systems filter the bets well and increase the ROI and of course, you really hope the combined systems did their job and improved the returns. Well, thankfully, this happened this month!
System 7 doubled the ROI by taking 1/3 of the bets from system 6 and system 8 ended with a 64% ROI from half the bets on system 7. Very good and exactly how the systems are meant to work! Shame they’ve not worked like this all season but over the first two seasons, this was the norm.
System 22 managed to double the ROI on system 21 and achieved a 39% ROI.
The combined systems had a storming month using these bets. The ROI’s on 6-21, 7-21 and 8-21 were 18.2%, 45.6% and 64.1%. The ROI’s on 6-22, 7-22 and 8-22 were 39.3%, 85.7% and 97.1%.
That is exactly how the systems are supposed to work and I’ve no idea why it has taken until Feb-13 for them to work this season. Last season and the first season, 4 or 5 months followed this sort of pattern and when the systems work like this, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a betting system so powerful. The highest value bets performed better than the weaker bets and everything fell into place this month.
A special mention to system 7-22 and 8-22. 7-22 hit 11 winners from 15 bets and 8-22 hit 7 winners from 8 bets. They made 12.9pts and 7.8pts respectively. In one month, they’ve both gone from a fairly big loss to a small profit for the season.
I know a fair number of people follow these two systems in their portfolio and given the results over the first two seasons, it was hard to watch these systems this season as they started well but then hit a drawdown that wasn’t far off the worst historical drawdown. Very disappointing really and ultimately, I was facing up to the fact that both systems would have a losing season. Of course, that may still turn out to be the case but at one point, I thought they could lose 25pts or thereabouts this season, so to see them in a small profit after this month is pleasing.
In terms of my proofed results with the SBC, the 6 combined systems made a profit of 63.2pts. That turns the season right around and the season results now stand at 61.9pts profit from 895 bets. That’s a season ROI of 6.9%.
Considering it’s been a shocking season and a number of these systems have had near historical drawdowns, it’s a great feeling to see them sitting with an ROI of 6.9%. Of course, there is a long way to go and I reckon there is about 25% of the season left in terms of bet numbers, so they could still have a losing season I guess but after this season’s troubles, a break-even season wouldn’t be a disaster in my eyes. At the start of the month, they were down for the season, had come off the back of 3 losing months in a row and I was actually thinking that if I could get away with a small loss this season, I could rebuild in the summer and hopefully turn things around next season.
Long way to go but we enter March with a lot more confidence than I entered February with!
New Systems
These systems had their first losing month last month since they went live at the start of the season. It wasn’t a massive loss but it was enough of a loss to dent my confidence in these systems a little. Well, they responded in a way in February that I’ve only seen matched by err….oh yeah, their big brothers, the Est Systems!
A profit of 183.1pts from 530 bets. An ROI of 34.5%.
System 31 made a profit of 28.3pts from 93 bets and system 41 made a profit of 33.8pts from 120 bets. That’s a brilliant result for the base ratings and gives a great platform to work from.
The filtering wasn’t quite as impressive as the Est Systems if I’m honest but it still wasn’t bad!
The top two combined systems achieved ROI’s in excess of 100% this month. 33-41 hit 9 winners from 12 for a profit of 15.6pts and 33-42 hit 7 from 9 for a profit of 10.1pts.
Overall, a truly stunning month and when you think they also had a great start to the season, the results for the New Systems are stacking up nicely now. We’ll know more once the season is finished but I suspect these are the ratings people will be falling over themselves to follow next season.
Misc Systems
I feel like these systems are my pet project this season. I missed the boat this season a little by standing by and watching the New Systems as they’ve accumulated a scary amount of profits but at the start of the season, I personally felt these systems had less to prove this season. They’ve not let me down this month again!
A profit of 102.7pts from 268 bets. An ROI of 38.3%.
The 3 systems TOX, STOY and STOZ were the main stars this month. All 3 systems had ROI’s in excess of 50% and although they admittedly usually all contain nearly identical bets, it’s still a really good result I think.
You could argue the other 3 systems were disappointing considering the results on the other systems that make up these combined systems but then again, in other months when the other systems were struggling, they systems did OK, so you can’t have massive profits all the time.
Overall, a very solid month for these systems again and apart from a blip in January when a loss was created, profits every month for these systems in totality.
Under/Over Systems
Another nothing month for these systems really. A loss of 1.4pts from 50 bets. Under system made a 0.5pt profit from 27 bets and the Over system made a 2pt loss from 23 bets. These systems won’t win you any money in the long-run but they won’t do much damage either. Maybe they’ll click into gear one day and make a good profit again in a month but so far, not happening this season.
Euro Systems
When the UK ratings have a month like this, I can’t help but wonder why I’m bothering with the Euro bets. I’ve cracked the UK leagues and therefore, why bother with trying to prove I can get something to work for European leagues? Well, after this month, it’s not getting easier to get the stakes on I want on the UK bets at the odds I want and yes, I can get the stakes on at lower odds but long-term, if I continue like this, I’ll no doubt reach the stage where I erode a huge chunk of my edge. The Euros will hopefully never have this issue due to the much higher liquidity available. All I’ve got to do is get ratings to work in these leagues and as this month (and this season has shown me), I’m nowhere near yet. I cracked the UK leagues at the first attempt basically but I suspect it will be back to the drawing board with the Euro ratings during the Summer for next season.
This month, a fairly substantial loss. A loss of 45.4pts from 377 bets.
The base ratings had a nightmare and the filtering of the bets and the combined systems did a great job in minimising the damage. System E1 lost 9pts from 71 bets and E6 lost 19.1pts from 77 bets.
With these results, it is somewhat surprising I guess that the top 4 combined systems all made a small profit! I’ve seen bits and pieces of profitability within the Euro ratings this season and although I suspect we’ll end with a small loss or a small profit overall, I think there are definitely pockets of bets that are worth looking at for next season. Whether I need to rebuild the full algorithms from scratch is something I’ll decide at the end of the season but I’m hopeful we can get away with a few tweaks here and there.
Overall for Feb-13
I don’t get the opportunity to post figures like this too often (not sure any blog I’ve read does!) but this month has saw a profit of 366.5pts from 1,610 bets. An overall ROI of 22.76%.
For me personally, the first two months of 2013 has seen me have the best 8 weeks betting of my life so far. The only way is down from here for me in 2013 but hopefully I can cushion the fall a little over the rest of this season!
I think for the first time in a while, I enter a new month with some hope that this season might turn out OK for those following the system. I was more concerned with my own P&L a few months ago but I feel like that has been taken care of for the moment, so I can only hope that many others have made the last month or so pay as it won’t be like this forever!
Season Results
The season results suddenly look a helluva lot better than they did a month ago! 720.5pts profit from 8,802 bets is a decent return and you can see how important February 2013 was to this season. Half of the profits for the season were generated last month!
35 of the 41 systems this season are now in profit and again, it’s a good return. The first season saw all 11 live systems make a profit and last season saw 21 of the 22 systems make a profit and the other system made a tiny loss.
Again, I think this shows that you can’t be too quick to judge systems and over the course of a season, I think TFA has an unparalleled ability to develop winning systems.
All Live Results
It’s remarkable that I’ve now proofed over 17,000 bets. When I started out on this journey, I figured I may add the odd system to the portfolio of Est Systems but I didn’t think I’d ever have 41 live systems at once!
At the moment, a profit of 8% across these bets is decent enough. I aim for a 10% return as I’ve said many times now but I suspect I’ll struggle to drag 41 systems up to a 10% return but if I was offered 8% across the next 10,000 bets, I’d take it.
Midweek Update
A stunning performance from the ratings in midweek again and this finishes off a truly amazing month. 8 weeks ago, I was probably as low as I’d ever been at the football and after 4 months of betting this season, my P&L was not much better than break-even. The base ratings were doing OK this season but the filtering of the systems was a disaster. Roll on two months and I can’t keep track of my winnings and things look SO, SO much better!
I was even doubting a few months ago whether my ratings had lost much of their edge and there was a massive doubt about whether I would continue with the service next season. This season has been really tough for me personally and juggling the service along with my other responsibilities is no easy task and when things are going tough, it is really draining. As I’ve said lots of times before on the blog, if it was easy to do what I’m doing and achieve these sort of returns, everyone would be doing it. In reality, it’s not easy.
So, onto the midweek results.
Est Systems
A profit of 40.29pts from only 34 bets! Not much more I can say here. An ROI of 118.5%.
New Systems
Misc Systems
24.66pts profit from 31 bets. Again, not much to add but say it was a good night again for these systems!
Under/Over Systems
Overall then, not the worst midweek of the season the systems have had. A profit of 114.19pts from only 127 bets. An ROI of 89.9%. I’d take that every week. Actually, I’d take 10% of this every week!
That completes February then. Next post will be the monthly review. Should be an interesting read……
Sunday, 24 February 2013
Weekly update
A really good week again for the systems. I said in the
last post that if the systems could finish February well and hold onto the
profits already achieved, it could give us something to build on for the rest
of the season. We had a really good midweek followed by a so-so weekend and
therefore, the systems are close to doing as I wanted and are actually
accumulating more profits. There is
still a busy midweek fixture list to come but assuming the systems don’t go
mad, February should see a long overdue return to profitability after 3 losing
months in a row.
A profit of 16.55pts from 65 bets. A really good midweek
return was spoilt somewhat by a poor weekend if I’m honest but over the week,
it’s a very good return. TOX, STOY and STOZ were the best performers again and
they really are showing up most of the other systems this season.
I have one Euro bet outstanding for Monday evening. For
this update, I have assumed the selection has lost the game. Obviously, if they
win or draw, I’ll update my records.
Est Systems
Hasn’t been the best week for system 21 considering it’s
the only system from this set that has been doing well this season but it has
been a good week for the higher combined systems. About time too I hear most of
you shout but good things come to those who wait!
Overall, a profit of 31.62pts from 86 bets. A really good performance again and they are
slowly starting to build up some momentum. The combined systems made 17.53pts
from 33 bets which is a great return and much more like it. 7-21 thru to 8-22 made a profit of 16.42pts
from 10 bets. Can’t recall too many updates
like this for these higher combined systems this season.
New Systems
An exceptional performance by these systems this week to
keep the month going. A profit of
63.48pts from 157 bets. System 41 was
the star of the show with a profit of 19.75pts from 38 bets. Great run by this
system.
Misc Systems
Under/Over
Systems
A profit of 0.8pts from 16 bets. A good midweek spoilt by
a poor weekend. Overall, the systems continue to struggle in the main.
Euro Systems
A profit of 2.1pts from 87 bets this weekend. I think the
most alarming thing at the moment is the run of the 2nd algorithm!
The current drawdown is around 40pts but it has accumulated over the last 122
bets. That’s a dreadful run. I make it 29 wins in this time, with 83 losers.
Average odds are quite high at 4.00 and if I look at a number of games, there are
a lot of big priced teams who have drawn and of course, that would make this
run nowhere near as bad but as it stands, it’s a shocking run!
Overall then, a profit of 114.55 from 411 bets for this
update. Great return again and this month continues to be a decent month. Just need to navigate the midweek fixtures
and then I can look back on this month and do the usual monthly review.
Tuesday, 19 February 2013
Season Results to 17th Feb 2013
I had a comment from Diego on the last post saying he couldn’t find the latest system results. I’ve said this before but I’ve steered away from looking at the results over the season as I tend to do the daily updates and then do a review at the end of every month.
If I’m going to look at the season, I’m as well looking at all live results (makes this season look like a blip on some systems!) but at the end of the day, even when I post the results for the season, people can interpret them in many different ways.
I feel like I’m forever apologising on here but it’s been a terrible season and compared to the first two seasons of live results, you’d think it was a different set of systems. However, every season can’t be like the first two seasons I guess and we’re going to have to suffer some ups and downs on our way to the Holy Grail of profits. (This is tongue in cheek before someone picks me up on it!)
Looking quickly at the table ( I don’t tend to look at the system results in one table), the thing that strikes me the most is the fact the Misc Systems and New Systems look so much better than the Est Systems, the Euro Systems and the Under/Over Systems this season.
Going into the season, it was hard to imagine the season would pan out this way but it again highlights the need for diversification I think. Definitely makes it more interesting for next season that we seem to have a bigger range of profitable systems to follow.
Anyway, hope this is what you are after Diego……
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