September Monthly Review

I've posted up a monthly review for September on a new page on the blog.

http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/p/201112-monthly-results.html

I'll hopefully follow it next week with some posts on the blog which will compare September 2011 with previous months to try to work out just how bad the month was historically.

Numbers wise, it was slightly better than April 2011 but worse than Feb 2011 but not sure that's fair. DNB did OK in Feb and April whereas this month is the worst ever for DNB, so draws aren't to blame for these losses this month.

Looking at the monthly P&L for the systems which went live last season, it now reads +50, +83, +80, +72, +15, -62, +66, -94, +53, -86. The only thing you can glean from this is that there are very few break-even months....actually, there are none. You either win a lot or lose a lot it appears.

Looking at the pattern of the last 5 months, the next month should be a big +.........

Roll on October!

Well, I think last night just summed up how bad a month this has been for the systems.

Overall, another losing night I'm afraid although if you study the results of the three algorithms, it wasn't all doom and gloom. However, the systems made a mess of it again which meant another poor night.

I'm not going to go into details regarding the results this month as we'll keep that for the monthly review. I'll just concentrate on last night for the moment.

Algorithm one found 7 bets, 3 winners and a draw and made a profit of 3.33pts. DNB betting made a profit of 1.47pts.

Algorithm two found 6 bets, 1 winner and 2 draws. A big priced winner though meant that H/A made a loss of only 0.19pts and DNB made a profit of 0.36pts.

Algorithm three found 10 bets, 3 winners, 4 draws and a profit of 1.86pts for H/A betting. DNB made a profit of 2.74pts.

Overall then, not the worst night with some nice winners in there along with a few draws and if things were going to plan, that would have equated to a good night for the systems I suspect. Unfortunately, all the losers were the strongest bets, the winners were all the weakest bets and therefore, the systems took these results and turned them into a losing night all round.

The established systems made a loss of 8.23pts for H/A betting and a loss of 9.52pts for DNB betting from 28 games. Really poor when you consider the base algorithms didn't do that badly.

It was a similar story for the new systems though with a loss of 4.39pts for H/A betting and a loss of 2.68pts for DNB betting from 39 games.

Another poor day for the systems overall and rounds off a really poor month.

Roll on October........

Weekend Review

Another tricky day on Saturday and it has been a very strange month. This season, I'm paying much more attention to how others are doing in the market who use their own ratings on the same leagues I'm playing in and so far, the evidence points to this month being a tough month.

I'll try to keep abreast of developments elsewhere and I might add a comment or two in my monthly review as at the end of the day, I think my results are going to be heavily correlated to how others are doing. No matter how good I think my ratings are, nothing I'm doing here is much different to what others are doing and therefore, my results need to be looked at in context of the market as well as on their own. If it is a month where a ratings approach to football betting has struggled, then I'll struggle too and I think this is happening this month.

Anyway, I'll think about this a little for the monthly review in a couple of days.

In the meantime, I can't hide from the fact Saturday was poor again.

Algorithm one found 18 bets, 7 winners and a profit of 1.89pts for H/A betting. There were only 4 draws in there, so DNB only made a profit of 0.44pts from the 18 games. Not a disaster for the algorithm but the systems didn't exactly utilise these bets well as you'll see later!

Algorithm two only found 2 winners from 12 bets. A loss of 5.1pts for H/A betting and a loss of 2.98pts for DNB betting. 4 draws in there helped DNB returns.

Algorithm three found 4 winners from 14 bets for a loss of 1.82pts. DNB betting made a loss of 2.08pts.

Overall, not a great day again and the strike rate at the moment is so low, it's hard to break-even, let alone make a profit.

Saturday wasn't helped too much by the systems either and the strongest bets on the algorithms performed poorly, so it made it a poor day for the systems.

The established systems made a loss of 24.51pts from 65 games. Disappointing considering the base algorithms made a loss of 3.21pts from the 30 bets. The combined systems didn't do well at all. DNB wasn't much better with a loss of 19.62pts.

The new systems didn't fare much better. A loss of 16.02pts for H/A betting and a loss of 13.68pts for DNB betting from 53 games.

Overall, a poor weekend (again!) and it has been a really tough month. Apart from one midweek which went well, every other day has been disappointing this season and it wasn't the start I hoped for this month.

I'll pull together a post later in the week for the monthly review.

Tonight's Bets

Here's the bets for tonight.

I'll do a post later today with an update of the results from the weekend.

Once tonight is out of the way, I'll start to give some thought to the monthly review. Depending on how Alfreton do tonight, this month could be one of the worst months ever which isn't the way I wanted to start this season.

The Football Analyst Bets for 27th September

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Darlington v Southport Southport 4.28 3.09
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Braintree v Tamworth Tamworth 4.00 2.90
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Telford v Alfreton Alfreton 3.40 2.47
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Barrow v Lincoln Lincoln 2.88 2.05
27/09/2011 Championship Burnley v Nott'm Forest Burnley 2.42 1.73
27/09/2011 Championship Portsmouth v Peterborough Peterboro 3.63 2.64
27/09/2011 League 1 MK Dons v Charlton MK Dons 2.50 1.79

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Telford v Alfreton Alfreton 3.40 2.47
27/09/2011 Championship Portsmouth v Peterborough Peterboro 3.63 2.64

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Telford v Alfreton Alfreton 3.40 2.47

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/09/2011 Championship Brighton v Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 5.81 4.36
27/09/2011 Championship Derby v Barnsley Barnsley 4.33 3.13
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Kidderminster v Grimsby Grimsby 3.90 2.85
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Barrow v Lincoln Lincoln 2.88 2.05
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Braintree v Tamworth Tamworth 4.00 2.90
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Telford v Alfreton Alfreton 3.40 2.47

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Kidderminster v Grimsby Grimsby 3.90 2.85
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Barrow v Lincoln Lincoln 2.88 2.05
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Telford v Alfreton Alfreton 3.40 2.47

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Braintree v Tamworth Tamworth 4.00 2.90
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Telford v Alfreton Alfreton 3.40 2.47
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Barrow v Lincoln Lincoln 2.88 2.05

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Telford v Alfreton Alfreton 3.40 2.47
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Barrow v Lincoln Lincoln 2.88 2.05

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Telford v Alfreton Alfreton 3.40 2.47

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Telford v Alfreton Alfreton 3.40 2.47

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Telford v Alfreton Alfreton 3.40 2.47

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Telford v Alfreton Alfreton 3.40 2.47

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Forest Green v Newport Newport 3.25 2.33
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Ebbsfleet v Bath Bath 3.50 2.51
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Braintree v Tamworth Tamworth 4.00 2.90
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Telford v Alfreton Alfreton 3.40 2.47
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Kidderminster v Grimsby Grimsby 3.90 2.85
27/09/2011 Championship Burnley v Nott'm Forest Burnley 2.42 1.73
27/09/2011 Championship Brighton v Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 5.81 4.36
27/09/2011 Championship Portsmouth v Peterborough Peterboro 3.63 2.64
27/09/2011 Championship Derby v Barnsley Barnsley 4.33 3.13
27/09/2011 League 1 MK Dons v Charlton MK Dons 2.50 1.79

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Braintree v Tamworth Tamworth 4.00 2.90
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Telford v Alfreton Alfreton 3.40 2.47
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Kidderminster v Grimsby Grimsby 3.90 2.85
27/09/2011 Championship Burnley v Nott'm Forest Burnley 2.42 1.73
27/09/2011 Championship Portsmouth v Peterborough Peterboro 3.63 2.64
27/09/2011 Championship Derby v Barnsley Barnsley 4.33 3.13

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/09/2011 Championship Burnley v Nott'm Forest Burnley 2.42 1.73
27/09/2011 Championship Derby v Barnsley Barnsley 4.33 3.13
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Kidderminster v Grimsby Grimsby 3.90 2.85
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Telford v Alfreton Alfreton 3.40 2.47

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/09/2011 Championship Burnley v Nott'm Forest Burnley 2.42 1.73
27/09/2011 Championship Portsmouth v Peterborough Peterboro 3.63 2.64
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Braintree v Tamworth Tamworth 4.00 2.90
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Telford v Alfreton Alfreton 3.40 2.47

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/09/2011 Championship Brighton v Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 5.81 4.36
27/09/2011 Championship Derby v Barnsley Barnsley 4.33 3.13
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Kidderminster v Grimsby Grimsby 3.90 2.85
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Braintree v Tamworth Tamworth 4.00 2.90
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Telford v Alfreton Alfreton 3.40 2.47

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Braintree v Tamworth Tamworth 4.00 2.90
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Telford v Alfreton Alfreton 3.40 2.47

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/09/2011 Championship Derby v Barnsley Barnsley 4.33 3.13
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Braintree v Tamworth Tamworth 4.00 2.90
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Telford v Alfreton Alfreton 3.40 2.47

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Braintree v Tamworth Tamworth 4.00 2.90
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Telford v Alfreton Alfreton 3.40 2.47

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Braintree v Tamworth Tamworth 4.00 2.90
27/09/2011 BSq Prem Telford v Alfreton Alfreton 3.40 2.47
27/09/2011 Championship Burnley v Nott'm Forest Burnley 2.42 1.73

Weekend Bets

Here's the bets for tomorrow.

Can do with a good weekend to get things moving. The first two weekends this season have been really poor, so we're due a good one hopefully! If not, there is always next weekend. ;)

The Football Analyst Bets for 24th September

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/09/2011 Bsq Prem Bath v Kettering Bath 2.50 1.79
24/09/2011 Championship Birmingham v Barnsley Birmingham 1.80 1.31
24/09/2011 Championship Derby v Millwall Millwall 2.90 2.05
24/09/2011 Championship Doncaster v Crystal Palace Doncaster 2.50 1.76
24/09/2011 Championship Middlesboro v Ipswich Middlesboro 1.73 1.31
24/09/2011 Championship Watford v Notts Forest Watford 2.60 1.86
24/09/2011 Championship West Ham v Peterboro Peterboro 6.00 4.61
24/09/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Hartlepool Bournemouth 2.40 1.73
24/09/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Yeovil Scunthorpe 1.80 1.35
25/09/2011 League 1 Sheff Wed v Exter Exeter 5.50 4.13
24/09/2011 League 2 Bradford v Wimbledon Wimbledon 3.18 2.30
24/09/2011 League 2 Crewe v Port Vale Port Vale 2.90 2.05
24/09/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 3.60 2.61
24/09/2011 League 2 Northampton v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.44
24/09/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Southend Southend 4.40 3.25
24/09/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Torquay Shrewsbury 1.91 1.40
24/09/2011 SPL Hibernian v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 2.63 1.85
24/09/2011 SPL St Mirren v Kilmarnock St Mirren 2.50 1.77

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/09/2011 Championship Derby v Millwall Millwall 2.90 2.05
24/09/2011 Championship Middlesboro v Ipswich Middlesboro 1.73 1.31
24/09/2011 Championship Watford v Notts Forest Watford 2.60 1.86
24/09/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Hartlepool Bournemouth 2.40 1.73
24/09/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Yeovil Scunthorpe 1.80 1.35
24/09/2011 League 2 Crewe v Port Vale Port Vale 2.90 2.05
24/09/2011 SPL St Mirren v Kilmarnock St Mirren 2.50 1.77

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/09/2011 Championship Derby v Millwall Millwall 2.90 2.05
24/09/2011 Championship Middlesboro v Ipswich Middlesboro 1.73 1.31
24/09/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Hartlepool Bournemouth 2.40 1.73
24/09/2011 League 2 Crewe v Port Vale Port Vale 2.90 2.05

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/09/2011 Bsq Prem Bath v Kettering Bath 2.50 1.79
24/09/2011 Bsq Prem Newport County v Barrow Barrow 3.68 2.72
24/09/2011 Championship Birmingham v Barnsley Birmingham 1.80 1.31
24/09/2011 Championship Bristol City v Hull Hull 2.80 1.95
24/09/2011 Championship Derby v Millwall Millwall 2.90 2.05
24/09/2011 Championship Watford v Notts Forest Watford 2.60 1.86
24/09/2011 Championship West Ham v Peterboro Peterboro 6.00 4.61
24/09/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Hartlepool Bournemouth 2.40 1.73
24/09/2011 League 2 Crewe v Port Vale Port Vale 2.90 2.05
24/09/2011 League 2 Northampton v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.44
24/09/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Southend Southend 4.40 3.25
24/09/2011 SPL St Mirren v Kilmarnock St Mirren 2.50 1.77

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/09/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Hartlepool Bournemouth 2.40 1.73
24/09/2011 League 2 Northampton v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.44

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/09/2011 Bsq Prem Bath v Kettering Bath 2.50 1.79
24/09/2011 Championship Birmingham v Barnsley Birmingham 1.80 1.31
24/09/2011 Championship Derby v Millwall Millwall 2.90 2.05
24/09/2011 Championship Watford v Notts Forest Watford 2.60 1.86
24/09/2011 Championship West Ham v Peterboro Peterboro 6.00 4.61
24/09/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Hartlepool Bournemouth 2.40 1.73
24/09/2011 League 2 Crewe v Port Vale Port Vale 2.90 2.05
24/09/2011 League 2 Northampton v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.44
24/09/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Southend Southend 4.40 3.25
24/09/2011 SPL St Mirren v Kilmarnock St Mirren 2.50 1.77

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/09/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Hartlepool Bournemouth 2.40 1.73
24/09/2011 League 2 Northampton v Dagenham Dagenham 3.40 2.44

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/09/2011 Championship Derby v Millwall Millwall 2.90 2.05
24/09/2011 Championship Watford v Notts Forest Watford 2.60 1.86
24/09/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Hartlepool Bournemouth 2.40 1.73
24/09/2011 League 2 Crewe v Port Vale Port Vale 2.90 2.05
24/09/2011 SPL St Mirren v Kilmarnock St Mirren 2.50 1.77

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/09/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Hartlepool Bournemouth 2.40 1.73

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/09/2011 Championship Derby v Millwall Millwall 2.90 2.05
24/09/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Hartlepool Bournemouth 2.40 1.73
24/09/2011 League 2 Crewe v Port Vale Port Vale 2.90 2.05

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/09/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Hartlepool Bournemouth 2.40 1.73

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/09/2011 BSP Newport County v Barrow Barrow 3.68 2.72
24/09/2011 Bsq Prem Bath v Kettering Bath 2.50 1.79
24/09/2011 Championship Derby v Millwall Millwall 2.90 2.05
24/09/2011 Championship Middlesboro v Ipswich Middlesboro 1.73 1.31
24/09/2011 Championship Watford v Notts Forest Watford 2.60 1.86
24/09/2011 Championship West Ham v Peterboro Peterboro 6.00 4.61
24/09/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Hartlepool Bournemouth 2.40 1.73
24/09/2011 League 1 Carlisle v Stevenage Carlisle 2.38 1.70
24/09/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Yeovil Scunthorpe 1.80 1.35
25/09/2011 League 1 Sheff Wed v Exter Exeter 5.50 4.13
24/09/2011 League 2 Crewe v Port Vale Port Vale 2.90 2.05
24/09/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 3.60 2.61
24/09/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Southend Southend 4.40 3.25
24/09/2011 SPL Motherwell v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.80 2.68

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/09/2011 Championship Derby v Millwall Millwall 2.90 2.05
24/09/2011 Championship West Ham v Peterboro Peterboro 6.00 4.61
24/09/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Hartlepool Bournemouth 2.40 1.73
24/09/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Yeovil Scunthorpe 1.80 1.35
24/09/2011 League 2 Crewe v Port Vale Port Vale 2.90 2.05
24/09/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Southend Southend 4.40 3.25

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/09/2011 Championship Derby v Millwall Millwall 2.90 2.05
24/09/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Hartlepool Bournemouth 2.40 1.73
24/09/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Yeovil Scunthorpe 1.80 1.35
24/09/2011 League 2 Crewe v Port Vale Port Vale 2.90 2.05

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/09/2011 Championship Derby v Millwall Millwall 2.90 2.05
24/09/2011 Championship West Ham v Peterboro Peterboro 6.00 4.61
24/09/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Hartlepool Bournemouth 2.40 1.73
24/09/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Yeovil Scunthorpe 1.80 1.35
24/09/2011 League 2 Crewe v Port Vale Port Vale 2.90 2.05
24/09/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Southend Southend 4.40 3.25

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/09/2011 Bsq Prem Bath v Kettering Bath 2.50 1.79
24/09/2011 Bsq Prem Newport County v Barrow Barrow 3.68 2.72
24/09/2011 Championship Derby v Millwall Millwall 2.90 2.05
24/09/2011 Championship Watford v Notts Forest Watford 2.60 1.86
24/09/2011 Championship West Ham v Peterboro Peterboro 6.00 4.61
24/09/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Hartlepool Bournemouth 2.40 1.73
24/09/2011 League 2 Crewe v Port Vale Port Vale 2.90 2.05
24/09/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Southend Southend 4.40 3.25

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/09/2011 Bsq Prem Bath v Kettering Bath 2.50 1.79
24/09/2011 Championship Derby v Millwall Millwall 2.90 2.05
24/09/2011 Championship Watford v Notts Forest Watford 2.60 1.86
24/09/2011 Championship West Ham v Peterboro Peterboro 6.00 4.61
24/09/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Hartlepool Bournemouth 2.40 1.73
24/09/2011 League 2 Crewe v Port Vale Port Vale 2.90 2.05
24/09/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Southend Southend 4.40 3.25

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/09/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Hartlepool Bournemouth 2.40 1.73
24/09/2011 League 2 Crewe v Port Vale Port Vale 2.90 2.05

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/09/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Hartlepool Bournemouth 2.40 1.73
24/09/2011 League 2 Crewe v Port Vale Port Vale 2.90 2.05

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
24/09/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Hartlepool Bournemouth 2.40 1.73
24/09/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Yeovil Scunthorpe 1.80 1.35
25/09/2011 League 1 Sheff Wed v Exter Exeter 5.50 4.13
24/09/2011 League 2 Crewe v Port Vale Port Vale 2.90 2.05

Midweek Update

Another disappointing midweek and it’s very frustrating at the moment.

I’m not sure why but I sort of assumed that this season would start well. You wait all summer for the season to start and 3 weeks into the system bets, you’re wishing the season hadn’t started yet and then you can start again!

The strike rate for all the systems is unbelievably low at the moment and things can only get better. Of course, better doesn’t mean that things have to get profitable but there is no way the systems can continue with the current strike rate of winners. The overall strike rate is down near 20% across all systems but unfortunately, my average odds aren’t near 4/1!

Anyway, we’ll just plod on and things will take a turn soon. They always do (or at least, it has always happened in the previous 15,000 games!)

Back on Friday with the weekend bets.

Tonight's Bets

The systems are all over Ebbsfleet like a rash for tonight. I have both these teams very evenly matched at the moment, so 7/2 on Ebbsfleet seemed massive.

Fingers crossed.

The Football Analyst Bets for 20th September

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/09/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Kettering Grimsby 1.80 1.32
20/09/2011 Bsq Prem York v Darlington York 1.91 1.37
20/09/2011 Bsq Prem Alfreton v Barrow Alfreton 2.40 1.71
20/09/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 4.50 3.35

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/09/2011 Bsq Prem Grimsby v Kettering Grimsby 1.80 1.32
20/09/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 4.50 3.35

System 8
None

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/09/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 4.50 3.35

System 22
None

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/09/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 4.50 3.35

System 6-22
None

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/09/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 4.50 3.35

System 7-22
None

System 8-21
None

System 8-22
None

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/09/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 4.50 3.35

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/09/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 4.50 3.35

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/09/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 4.50 3.35

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/09/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 4.50 3.35

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/09/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 4.50 3.35

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/09/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 4.50 3.35

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/09/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 4.50 3.35

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/09/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 4.50 3.35

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/09/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 4.50 3.35

Weekend Results

This season so far is starting to make last season look like it was fairly stable on a week by week basis. Another really poor weekend this weekend which is frustrating given that the midweek was a big improvement on last weekend but it has slipped back again.

I’m sure things will settle down a little once we get more games played but the strike rate at the moment for winners is about as low as you can get I suspect. A trained monkey guessing H/A/X could do better than the ratings at the moment, so hopefully things will pick up soon. If not, it’s going to be a long season!

Just for the record, the systems overall (established or new systems) have never had a losing September month, so there are two ways to take this. They are due a losing month or things will turnaround quickly in the next two weeks.

In terms of how bad this month is, it’s only the 4th or 5th worst month on record so far but of course, there is plenty of time left to make this month the worst ever. On the upside, there is plenty of time for it to turn out to be profitable too. The next two weeks will be interesting.

As for this weekend, well, a total disaster.

Algorithm one found 16 bets but only managed to find 3 winners and 3 draws. 10 losers is really poor and that made it a loss of 9.09pts for H/A betting and DNB was only slightly better with a loss of 8pts.

Algorithm two found 10 bets with only 2 winners. There were 3 draws in there too. H/A lost 3.6pts with DNB only losing 2.46pts.

Algorithm three (which is finding far too many weak bets at the moment I suspect as a lot of these bets are very marginal value) found 16 bets with only 1 winner. A loss of 12.5pts for H/A betting. DNB lost 9.53pts.

Basically, when you are trying to pick system bets based on these 3 algorithms yesterday, it’s impossible to make a profit. When the base ratings are making massive losses on the day, trying to find a system to make a profit is nearly impossible.

Last weekend, I thought the systems did well in minimising the damage but this weekend, they weren’t quite so fortunate and many systems had large losses.

One thing that is shining through very early on is that you really need to be cross referring algorithms. I knew that after last season but as discussed during the close season, I wanted to keep systems 6,7,8,21,22 alive since they account for a lot of proofed results. So far this season, these systems are haemorrhaging losses and therefore, they’ll bring down my overall return this season I expect for the systems. Thankfully, I’ve steered everyone towards the combined systems this season which was again reinforced by the SBC in their review of last season, so hopefully this will limit any damage these single systems can do to anyone’s portfolio.

At the end of the day, the combined systems can’t win if the single bet systems are losing. Things need to improve and improve quickly.
The established systems from last season lost 37.79pts this weekend for H/A betting and DNB lost 26.38pts. Very disappointing again and in line with what happened last weekend.

The new systems actually had a worse weekend as they had less bets but they still managed to lose 31.10pts for H/A betting and 23.99pts for DNB betting.

Overall, a dreadful weekend and hopefully things can only get better.

The strike rate overall is down at less than 25% and it is the lowest strike rate historically for any month that I can see from having a quick look at the monthly results.

There was an interesting comment on the last post from an anonymous poster. I think anyone new to reading this blog must be wondering what the hell is going on with all these bets at the moment but all I can say is that don’t pay too much attention to the single systems 6,7,8,21,22 and 31 as they aren’t the bets I recommend people follow. These systems are basically core systems used to find the best bets on other systems. Concentrate on the combined systems and the results of these systems.

At the moment, every system is losing which means it may not seem to matter which system you follow but long-term, I can guarantee that system 8-22 will do better than system 6 for example!

Right, I’ll leave that there for now. Back on Monday with any bets for the Bsq Prem card in midweek.

Weekend Bets

Below are the bets for tomorrow.

Good luck.

The Football Analyst Bets for 17th September

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/09/2011 BSq Prem Ebbsfleet v Fleetwood Ebbsfleet 3.30 2.36
17/09/2011 BSq Prem Kidderminster v Alfreton Alfreton 5.75 4.31
17/09/2011 BSq Prem Stockport v Grimsby Grimsby 3.32 2.38
17/09/2011 Championship Barnsley v Watford Watford 3.00 2.13
17/09/2011 Championship Leeds v Bristol City Bristol City 5.00 3.77
17/09/2011 Championship Leicester v Brighton Leicester 2.20 1.59
17/09/2011 Championship Millwall v West Ham Millwall 3.00 2.16
17/09/2011 League 1 Leyton Orient v Oldham Leyton Orient 2.20 1.57
17/09/2011 League 1 Brentford v Preston Preston 2.90 2.08
17/09/2011 League 1 Chesterfield v Carlisle Carlisle 3.00 2.14
17/09/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Bury Bury 4.00 3.00
17/09/2011 League 1 Walsall v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.75 1.96
17/09/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Sheff Wed Yeovil 2.88 2.06
17/09/2011 League 2 Accrington v Crewe Accrington 2.25 1.64
17/09/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.48
17/09/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v Inverness Dundee Utd 1.81 1.33

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/09/2011 Championship Barnsley v Watford Watford 3.00 2.13
17/09/2011 Championship Millwall v West Ham Millwall 3.00 2.16
17/09/2011 League 1 Brentford v Preston Preston 2.90 2.08
17/09/2011 League 1 Chesterfield v Carlisle Carlisle 3.00 2.14
17/09/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Bury Bury 4.00 3.00
17/09/2011 League 1 Walsall v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.75 1.96
17/09/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.48

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/09/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Bury Bury 4.00 3.00
17/09/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.48

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/09/2011 BSq Prem Kidderminster v Alfreton Alfreton 5.75 4.31
17/09/2011 BSq Prem Telford v Bath Bath 4.06 2.92
17/09/2011 Championship Barnsley v Watford Watford 3.00 2.13
17/09/2011 Championship Millwall v West Ham Millwall 3.00 2.16
17/09/2011 Championship Reading v Doncaster Doncaster 6.00 4.55
17/09/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Bury Bury 4.00 3.00
17/09/2011 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Aldershot Aldershot 3.50 2.47
17/09/2011 League 2 Port Vale v Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 2.90 2.07
17/09/2011 League 2 Torquay v Rotherham Rotherham 3.01 2.15
17/09/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.48

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/09/2011 Championship Millwall v West Ham Millwall 3.00 2.16
17/09/2011 Championship Reading v Doncaster Doncaster 6.00 4.55
17/09/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.48

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/09/2011 BSq Prem Kidderminster v Alfreton Alfreton 5.75 4.31
17/09/2011 Championship Barnsley v Watford Watford 3.00 2.13
17/09/2011 Championship Millwall v West Ham Millwall 3.00 2.16
17/09/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Bury Bury 4.00 3.00
17/09/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.48

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/09/2011 Championship Millwall v West Ham Millwall 3.00 2.16
17/09/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.48

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/09/2011 Championship Barnsley v Watford Watford 3.00 2.13
17/09/2011 Championship Millwall v West Ham Millwall 3.00 2.16
17/09/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Bury Bury 4.00 3.00
17/09/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.48

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/09/2011 Championship Millwall v West Ham Millwall 3.00 2.16
17/09/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.48

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/09/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Bury Bury 4.00 3.00
17/09/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.48

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/09/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.48

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/09/2011 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Fleetwood Ebbsfleet 3.30 2.36
17/09/2011 Bsq Prem Stockport v Grimsby Grimsby 3.32 2.38
17/09/2011 Bsq Prem Telford v Bath Bath 4.06 2.92
17/09/2011 Championship Barnsley v Watford Watford 3.00 2.13
17/09/2011 Championship Leeds v Bristol City Bristol City 5.00 3.77
17/09/2011 Championship Millwall v West Ham Millwall 3.00 2.16
17/09/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Derby Notts Forest 1.83 1.34
17/09/2011 League 1 Chesterfield v Carlisle Carlisle 3.00 2.14
17/09/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Bury Bury 4.00 3.00
17/09/2011 League 1 Walsall v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.75 1.96
17/09/2011 League 2 AFC Wimbledon v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.48
17/09/2011 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Aldershot Aldershot 3.50 2.47
17/09/2011 League 2 Crawley v Bradford Bradford 5.75 4.31
17/09/2011 League 2 Hereford v Gillingham Hereford 3.45 2.45
17/09/2011 League 2 Southend v Plymouth Plymouth 7.00 5.33
17/09/2011 SPL Dunfermline v Hibernian Hibernian 3.00 2.15

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/09/2011 Championship Millwall v West Ham Millwall 3.00 2.16
17/09/2011 Championship Leeds v Bristol City Bristol City 5.00 3.77
17/09/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Bury Bury 4.00 3.00
17/09/2011 League 2 AFC Wimbledon v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.48

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/09/2011 Championship Millwall v West Ham Millwall 3.00 2.16
17/09/2011 Championship Leeds v Bristol City Bristol City 5.00 3.77
17/09/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Bury Bury 4.00 3.00
17/09/2011 League 2 AFC Wimbledon v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.48

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/09/2011 Championship Millwall v West Ham Millwall 3.00 2.16
17/09/2011 Championship Leeds v Bristol City Bristol City 5.00 3.77
17/09/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Bury Bury 4.00 3.00
17/09/2011 League 2 AFC Wimbledon v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.48

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/09/2011 Bsq Prem Telford v Bath Bath 4.06 2.92
17/09/2011 Championship Barnsley v Watford Watford 3.00 2.13
17/09/2011 Championship Leeds v Bristol City Bristol City 5.00 3.77
17/09/2011 Championship Millwall v West Ham Millwall 3.00 2.16
17/09/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Bury Bury 4.00 3.00
17/09/2011 League 2 AFC Wimbledon v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.48
17/09/2011 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Aldershot Aldershot 3.50 2.47

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/09/2011 Championship Barnsley v Watford Watford 3.00 2.13
17/09/2011 Championship Millwall v West Ham Millwall 3.00 2.16
17/09/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Bury Bury 4.00 3.00
17/09/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.40 2.48

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/09/2011 BSq Prem Kidderminster v Alfreton Alfreton 5.75 4.31
17/09/2011 League 2 Port Vale v Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 2.90 2.07

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/09/2011 BSq Prem Kidderminster v Alfreton Alfreton 5.75 4.31

System STOZ
None

A little better....

As the title suggests, a little bit better this midweek and it was a much better performance from the combined systems after a slow start this season. Hopefully these systems can push on from here although I’ll happily settle for them to not have too many days like last Saturday!

Algorithm one found 12 bets and made a profit of 5.5pts for H/A betting whereas DNB made a profit of 4.45pts.

Algorithm two found 8 bets and a profit of 4.4pts for H/A betting. DNB did really well too with a profit of 4.14pts.

Lastly, the new 3rd algorithm based on DNB made a profit of 4.88pts from 15 games for H/A betting and a profit of 2.35pts for DNB.

Overall, a satisfying midweek with some good winners found including Swindon at 4/1 on algorithm three.

As usual, what the systems do with the bets is crucial and thankfully, they did a good job I think.

The established systems from last season had 48 bets in total and managed a profit of 32.8pts for H/A betting. DNB also had a very good time of it though with a profit of 26.56pts.

The new systems weren’t quite as good although it wasn’t bad! A profit of 15.38pts from 39 games for H/A betting and DNB making a profit of 14.99pts.

Overall, a decent midweek and it helps to steady the ship a little after last Saturday.

One thing I have noticed in the last two weeks is how similar all the teams are that are found by people using their own ratings. As I’ve said many times on here now, nothing I’ve done with my football ratings is any different to what many others are doing to generate bets. My USP I hope is being able to maximise my ratings to their full capacity but time will tell if I can do that.

A special mention to Steve the anonymous poster on my last post for posting his bets again. A truly exceptional night (makes mines look average!) and it’s great to see someone else giving this football ratings game a go.

I’ll be back on Friday with the bets for this weekend.

Bets for tonight

Below are the bets for tonight. Fingers crossed it goes better than the weekend!

The Football Analyst Bets for 13th September

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/09/2011 League 1 Brentford v Colchester Colchester 4.00 2.90
13/09/2011 League 1 Chesterfield v Bury Bury 3.50 2.52
13/09/2011 League 1 Leyton Orient v Bournemouth Bournemouth 3.32 2.37
13/09/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.88 2.06
13/09/2011 League 1 Stevanage v Sheff Wed Stevenage 2.38 1.69
13/09/2011 League 1 Tranmere v Carlisle Carlisle 3.40 2.41
13/09/2011 League 2 Accrington v Rotherham Accrington 2.63 1.88
13/09/2011 League 2 Hereford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.60 1.84
13/09/2011 League 2 Macclesfield v Morecambe Macclesfield 3.05 2.19
13/09/2011 League 2 Southend v Gillingham Southend 2.30 1.64
13/09/2011 League 2 Torquay v Cheltenham Cheltenham 4.00 2.90
13/09/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Northampton Northampton 3.50 2.51

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/09/2011 League 1 Brentford v Colchester Colchester 4.00 2.90
13/09/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.88 2.06
13/09/2011 League 2 Hereford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.60 1.84
13/09/2011 League 2 Torquay v Cheltenham Cheltenham 4.00 2.90
13/09/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Northampton Northampton 3.50 2.51

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/09/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.88 2.06
13/09/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Northampton Northampton 3.50 2.51

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/09/2011 League 1 Brentford v Colchester Colchester 4.00 2.90
13/09/2011 league 1 Sheff Utd v Huddersfield Huddersfield 3.30 2.38
13/09/2011 League 1 Tranmere v Carlisle Carlisle 3.40 2.41
13/09/2011 League 1 Walsall v Oldham Walsall 2.20 1.56
13/09/2011 League 2 Accrington v Rotherham Accrington 2.63 1.88
13/09/2011 League 2 Hereford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.60 1.84
13/09/2011 League 2 Torquay v Cheltenham Cheltenham 4.00 2.90
13/09/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Northampton Northampton 3.50 2.51

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/09/2011 League 1 Brentford v Colchester Colchester 4.00 2.90
13/09/2011 League 2 Hereford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.60 1.84
13/09/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Northampton Northampton 3.50 2.51

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/09/2011 League 1 Brentford v Colchester Colchester 4.00 2.90
13/09/2011 League 1 Tranmere v Carlisle Carlisle 3.40 2.41
13/09/2011 League 2 Accrington v Rotherham Accrington 2.63 1.88
13/09/2011 League 2 Hereford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.60 1.84
13/09/2011 League 2 Torquay v Cheltenham Cheltenham 4.00 2.90
13/09/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Northampton Northampton 3.50 2.51

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/09/2011 League 1 Brentford v Colchester Colchester 4.00 2.90
13/09/2011 League 2 Hereford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.60 1.84
13/09/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Northampton Northampton 3.50 2.51

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/09/2011 League 1 Brentford v Colchester Colchester 4.00 2.90
13/09/2011 League 2 Hereford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.60 1.84
13/09/2011 League 2 Torquay v Cheltenham Cheltenham 4.00 2.90
13/09/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Northampton Northampton 3.50 2.51

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/09/2011 League 1 Brentford v Colchester Colchester 4.00 2.90
13/09/2011 League 2 Hereford v Aldershot Aldershot 2.60 1.84
13/09/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Northampton Northampton 3.50 2.51

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/09/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Northampton Northampton 3.50 2.51

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/09/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Northampton Northampton 3.50 2.51

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/09/2011 League 1 Brentford v Colchester Colchester 4.00 2.90
13/09/2011 League 1 Chesterfield v Bury Bury 3.50 2.52
13/09/2011 League 1 Rochdale v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.88 2.06
13/09/2011 league 1 Sheff Utd v Huddersfield Huddersfield 3.30 2.38
13/09/2011 League 1 Stevanage v Sheff Wed Stevenage 2.38 1.69
13/09/2011 League 1 Tranmere v Carlisle Carlisle 3.40 2.41
13/09/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Wycombe Wycombe 3.30 2.33
13/09/2011 League 2 Accrington v Rotherham Accrington 2.63 1.88
13/09/2011 League 2 Barnet v Plymouth Plymouth 4.50 3.30
13/09/2011 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Shrewsbury Shrewsbury 3.00 2.13
13/09/2011 League 2 Burton v Crewe Crewe 3.25 2.35
13/09/2011 League 2 Crawley v Swindon Swindon 5.00 3.72
13/09/2011 League 2 Southend v Gillingham Southend 2.30 1.64
13/09/2011 League 2 Torquay v Cheltenham Cheltenham 4.00 2.90
13/09/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Northampton Northampton 3.50 2.51

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/09/2011 League 2 Southend v Gillingham Southend 2.30 1.64
13/09/2011 League 2 Accrington v Rotherham Accrington 2.63 1.88
13/09/2011 League 2 Burton v Crewe Crewe 3.25 2.35
13/09/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Northampton Northampton 3.50 2.51
13/09/2011 League 2 Torquay v Cheltenham Cheltenham 4.00 2.90

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/09/2011 League 2 Southend v Gillingham Southend 2.30 1.64
13/09/2011 League 2 Accrington v Rotherham Accrington 2.63 1.88
13/09/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Northampton Northampton 3.50 2.51
13/09/2011 League 2 Torquay v Cheltenham Cheltenham 4.00 2.90

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/09/2011 League 2 Southend v Gillingham Southend 2.30 1.64
13/09/2011 League 2 Accrington v Rotherham Accrington 2.63 1.88
13/09/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Northampton Northampton 3.50 2.51
13/09/2011 League 2 Torquay v Cheltenham Cheltenham 4.00 2.90

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/09/2011 League 1 Brentford v Colchester Colchester 4.00 2.90
13/09/2011 league 1 Sheff Utd v Huddersfield Huddersfield 3.30 2.38
13/09/2011 League 1 Tranmere v Carlisle Carlisle 3.40 2.41
13/09/2011 League 2 Accrington v Rotherham Accrington 2.63 1.88
13/09/2011 League 2 Torquay v Cheltenham Cheltenham 4.00 2.90
13/09/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Northampton Northampton 3.50 2.51

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
13/09/2011 League 1 Brentford v Colchester Colchester 4.00 2.90
13/09/2011 League 1 Tranmere v Carlisle Carlisle 3.40 2.41
13/09/2011 League 2 Accrington v Rotherham Accrington 2.63 1.88
13/09/2011 League 2 Torquay v Cheltenham Cheltenham 4.00 2.90
13/09/2011 League 2 Wimbledon v Northampton Northampton 3.50 2.51

System TOX
None

System STOY
None

System STOZ
None

Carnage.....

Having been through last season and the ups and downs, the results today don’t surprise me too much if I’m honest. A quick look around the SBC forum and a few other blogs and I can see that for most of us using our own football ratings in the lower English leagues, it was difficult today. Easy for me to say but this isn’t the worst these systems will do this season. There will be worse times than this I’m sure as there were worse days than this last season!

Hard to know what to say about today really. I wasn’t confident going into today as I couldn’t understand why systems 21 and 22 didn’t find more bets when the other two algorithms were finding bets for fun and that worried me. Thankfully, that meant the combined systems from last season didn’t find many bets but every bet they did find was a loser! Not what I wanted to start the season with but not much I can do about it.

I didn’t mention it before the weekend but those reading the blog from earlier this season will know that Dagenham were the first bet on system 8-22 since the systems went live this season. During the trial period before the 6 games were played, the first 3 bets won from this system and I didn’t have a penny on any of them. I just knew (as did everyone reading this I’m sure!) that the first system 8-22 bet would lose this season when I had money on it. Had to happen as it’s Sod’s Law and that follows me around when I’m gambling.

Anyway, no point worrying about this weekend too much. In the grand scheme of things, this weekend counts for around 2% of the season in total, so the systems have 98% of the season left to turn things around.

If I was wanting to look at the positives, this weekend could have been much worse. I don’t know for sure why there were so many weaker bets thrown up this weekend from my ratings (the bookies odds were a bit off I suspect) but thankfully, the systems did their job in narrowing down the bets. Admittedly, narrowing down the bets and seeing them all lose isn’t exactly a positive but the more filtering this weekend, the better! Systems 6-22, 7-22 and 8-22 only lost 1pt this weekend. With hindsight, that’s a great performance when you see the mess the other systems made this weekend.

Algorithm one found 14 bets this weekend. 2 winners and 12 losers with a loss of 9.90pts. If backing DNB, 2 winners, 5 draws and 5 losers. A loss of 6pts for DNB.

Algorithm two found 9 bets and 9 losers. If backing DNB, this was 5 draws and 4 losses for a loss of 4pts.

Algorithm three found 17 bets with only 3 winners. A loss of 9.58pts. If backing DNB, 3 winners, 6 draws and 8 losers. A loss of 5.60pts.

As usual, we’re more interested in how the systems used the bets.

The established systems from last season lost 43.9pts from 50 games. If backing DNB, this reduced this loss to 23.56pts from 50 games.

The new systems lost 37.58pts from 49 games. If backing DNB, this reduced the loss to 14.69pts.

Whatever way you look at this weekend, it’s a bad weekend.

One thing that has been discussed a lot on the blog before is whether backing DNB is better than backing H/A. I’m playing a mixture of both this season but I’m using DNB on the new systems since these were built to maximise profits from DNB betting. This weekend would have personally been a disaster without the DNB on the new systems and therefore, although today was a big losing day for me, it wasn’t the disaster it could have been although it was still nearly a disaster!

The established systems found 22 draws in 50 games and the new systems found 26 draws in 49 games. That’s 48 draws in 99 games which shows why DNB managed to do much better this weekend.

I’ll be back on Tuesday afternoon with the bets for the midweek games.

PS. I forgot to say, the best systems this weekend were TOX, STOY and STOZ. They still haven’t had a bet this season yet!

Weekend Bets

Another interesting week for my ratings this week.

The first thing that stands out is the lack of higher value bets this weekend on algorithm two. Algorithm one finds plenty of value this weekend with a remarkable 5 bets on system 8. However, when you look at algorithm two, there is only one higher value bet on there (system 22).

Therefore, although there are 17 bets thrown up as value by both algorithms, only one bet is picked out as a high value bet and appears on systems 7-22 and 8-22.

Algorithm three goes to town though with a remarkable 17 bets thrown up although it narrows it down to 5 high value bets on system 33.

System 21-31 hit 2 winners from 2 bets last weekend and somehow finds an astonishing 7 bets this weekend!

Whatever happens this week, it is sure to leave it's mark on a lot of our portfolios. If the weekend goes well, we'll have some profits to play with and if the weekend goes badly, we'll need to hope things turnaround in the near future!

Good luck.

The Football Analyst Bets for 10th September

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/09/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Chesterfield Bournemouth 2.00 1.46
10/09/2011 League 1 Carlisle v Hartlepool Carlisle 2.20 1.61
10/09/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Sheff Utd Scunthorpe 2.80 2.01
10/09/2011 League 1 Sheff Wed v MK Dons MK Dons 2.80 2.04
10/09/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Wimbledon Aldershot 2.20 1.56
10/09/2011 League 2 Cheltenham v Macclesfield Cheltenham 2.00 1.45
10/09/2011 League 2 Crewe v Barnet Barnet 3.50 2.57
10/09/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Accrington Accrington 4.33 3.11
10/09/2011 League 2 Northampton v Torquay Northampton 2.40 1.74
10/09/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.92
10/09/2011 League 2 Swindon v Southend Swindon 2.10 1.53
10/09/2011 Bsq Prem Bath v Southport Bath 2.38 1.72
10/09/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 5.00 3.71
10/09/2011 Bsq Prem Lincoln v Kettering Lincoln 1.94 1.43

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/09/2011 League 1 Carlisle v Hartlepool Carlisle 2.20 1.61
10/09/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Sheff Utd Scunthorpe 2.80 2.01
10/09/2011 League 1 Sheff Wed v MK Dons MK Dons 2.80 2.04
10/09/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Wimbledon Aldershot 2.20 1.56
10/09/2011 League 2 Cheltenham v Macclesfield Cheltenham 2.00 1.45
10/09/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.92

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/09/2011 League 1 Carlisle v Hartlepool Carlisle 2.20 1.61
10/09/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Sheff Utd Scunthorpe 2.80 2.01
10/09/2011 League 1 Sheff Wed v MK Dons MK Dons 2.80 2.04
10/09/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Wimbledon Aldershot 2.20 1.56
10/09/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.92

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/09/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Sheff Utd Scunthorpe 2.80 2.01
10/09/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Wimbledon Aldershot 2.20 1.56
10/09/2011 League 2 Bradford v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 2.80 2.00
10/09/2011 League 2 Crewe v Barnet Barnet 3.50 2.57
10/09/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Accrington Accrington 4.33 3.11
10/09/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.92
10/09/2011 Bsq Prem Fleetwood v Gateshead Gateshead 3.50 2.55
10/09/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 5.00 3.71
10/09/2011 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Newport Newport 5.00 3.69

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/09/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.92

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/09/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Wimbledon Aldershot 2.20 1.56
10/09/2011 League 2 Crewe v Barnet Barnet 3.50 2.57
10/09/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Accrington Accrington 4.33 3.11
10/09/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 5.00 3.71
10/09/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.92
10/09/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Sheff Utd Scunthorpe 2.80 2.01

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/09/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.92

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/09/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Wimbledon Aldershot 2.20 1.56
10/09/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.92
10/09/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Sheff Utd Scunthorpe 2.80 2.01

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/09/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.92

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/09/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Sheff Utd Scunthorpe 2.80 2.01
10/09/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Wimbledon Aldershot 2.20 1.56
10/09/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.92

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/09/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.92

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/09/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Chesterfield Bournemouth 2.00 1.46
10/09/2011 League 1 Bury v Rochdale Rochdale 3.75 2.69
10/09/2011 League 1 Carlisle v Hartlepool Carlisle 2.20 1.61
10/09/2011 League 1 Charlton v Exeter Exeter 6.00 4.57
10/09/2011 League 1 Colchester v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 4.50 3.38
10/09/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Sheff Utd Scunthorpe 2.80 2.01
10/09/2011 League 1 Sheff Wed v MK Dons MK Dons 2.80 2.04
10/09/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Wimbledon Aldershot 2.20 1.56
10/09/2011 League 2 Cheltenham v Macclesfield Cheltenham 2.00 1.45
10/09/2011 League 2 Crewe v Barnet Barnet 3.50 2.57
10/09/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Accrington Accrington 4.33 3.11
10/09/2011 League 2 Northampton v Torquay Northampton 2.40 1.74
10/09/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.92
10/09/2011 Bsq Prem Fleetwood v Gateshead Gateshead 3.50 2.55
10/09/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 5.00 3.71
10/09/2011 Bsq Prem Lincoln v Kettering Lincoln 1.94 1.43
10/09/2011 Bsq Prem Luton v Darlington Luton 1.67 1.26

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/09/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Sheff Utd Scunthorpe 2.80 2.01
10/09/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Wimbledon Aldershot 2.20 1.56
10/09/2011 League 2 Cheltenham v Macclesfield Cheltenham 2.00 1.45
10/09/2011 League 2 Crewe v Barnet Barnet 3.50 2.57
10/09/2011 League 2 Northampton v Torquay Northampton 2.40 1.74
10/09/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.92
10/09/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 5.00 3.71

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/09/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Sheff Utd Scunthorpe 2.80 2.01
10/09/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Wimbledon Aldershot 2.20 1.56
10/09/2011 League 2 Northampton v Torquay Northampton 2.40 1.74
10/09/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.92
10/09/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 5.00 3.71

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/09/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Sheff Utd Scunthorpe 2.80 2.01
10/09/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Wimbledon Aldershot 2.20 1.56
10/09/2011 League 2 Cheltenham v Macclesfield Cheltenham 2.00 1.45
10/09/2011 League 2 Crewe v Barnet Barnet 3.50 2.57
10/09/2011 League 2 Northampton v Torquay Northampton 2.40 1.74
10/09/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.92
10/09/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 5.00 3.71

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/09/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Sheff Utd Scunthorpe 2.80 2.01
10/09/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Wimbledon Aldershot 2.20 1.56
10/09/2011 League 2 Crewe v Barnet Barnet 3.50 2.57
10/09/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Accrington Accrington 4.33 3.11
10/09/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.92
10/09/2011 Bsq Prem Fleetwood v Gateshead Gateshead 3.50 2.55
10/09/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 5.00 3.71

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/09/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Wimbledon Aldershot 2.20 1.56
10/09/2011 League 2 Crewe v Barnet Barnet 3.50 2.57
10/09/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Accrington Accrington 4.33 3.11
10/09/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 5.00 3.71
10/09/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Dagenham Dagenham 4.00 2.92
10/09/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Sheff Utd Scunthorpe 2.80 2.01

System TOX
None

System STOY
None

System STOZ
None

A couple of observations...........

A couple of quick observations from last weekend's games which may help us achieve maximum profitability as the season progresses.

Firstly, I'm sure I'm not the only one who noticed that the DNB odds I quoted were easily beatable in all but one of the games last weekend by backing DNB at certain bookmakers. It's funny, I didn't do any great tests to check whether DNB odds were better than my dutching method when looking at DNB returns but I assumed that 90%+ of the time, taking the best odds for the selection to win and draw would beat the best Draw No Bet odds. Last weekend, it happened once out of 7 games.

In the game where it was better to dutch, it was on a big priced selection that was 6/1 to win and therefore, it may just be that on teams that are priced lower, backing DNB may be better than my dutching method. If this is true, it means that I may be understating the DNB returns historically a little but that's no bad thing. I'd much rather be understating returns rather than overstating them.

Of course, with no draws last weekend, backing DNB was a useless method anyway!

Secondly, as I've said throughout the summer, there is no reason to believe that my new systems for this season are any less likely to make a profit than the systems from last season. A couple of you queried with me after the weekend why I've only really talked about following the established systems from last season and not the new systems from this season.

Simply, the systems from last season have one season's proofed results behind them and the new systems have no proofed results behind them. Therefore, if given the choice between two sets of systems, you would automatically lean towards the systems with the proven results and this is why I’ve steered people more towards the established systems if they’ve asked me. I personally have placed more faith in the systems from last season too although I am following some of the newer systems too as I’ve said before.

However, if you read this post here, this shows a whole host of systems that people could follow this season that even I’m not following or tracking.

http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/2011/06/final-systems-for-201112-i-hope.html

As I’ve said before on the blog, I don’t have the time to track all of these systems and therefore, I chose 3 new systems to follow this season which are shown on that post. However, if someone likes the look of system 6-31 for example, then they can follow that.

Depending on how this season goes, I may well look at all of these combinations again and if they are all as profitable this season as they were in backtesting, then I don’t see an issue with having 40 systems on the go. Again, it would give people greater choice of systems to choose and that’s no bad thing.

However, I think that any system involving my new systems this season carry more risk than the systems from last season and therefore, I’d much rather watch the new systems this season before diving in myself. For all I know though, the new systems might all make twice as much profit as the systems from last season! We’ll find out more this season.

I thought it was worth touching on these two observations. I think people maybe ignored my new systems due to thinking these weren’t going to be as good as my established systems and although you can’t read much into one set of games, I wouldn’t be surprised to see my new systems do better this season. When I built my initial systems, I wasn’t as good at building systems as I am now and therefore, it may well be the case that the newer systems have more potential than the systems from last season. I can only reiterate though that I think it’s better to follow systems with one season’s proofed results than brand new systems!

I’ll be back on Friday with this weekend’s bets.

First Weekend Review

The first of the weekend reviews from this season.

A bit of a strange weekend where the different rating algorithms appeared to find different strong bets which meant we didn’t end up with too many strong bets on combined systems.

It’s hard to know how to write up the results this season as with 3 different rating algorithms and with a different model throwing up other bets, you can see 4 different ways of analysing the results straight away. I'll do each algorithm first and then talk about the established systems from last season against the new systems from this season.

I’ll start with algorithm one. 5 value bets found 2 winners and 3 losers. A profit of 0.67pts for H/A betting and a loss of 0.89pts if using DNB.

Algorithm two did much better with 3 bets, 2 winners and a loser. A profit of 4.25pts for H/A betting and a profit of 2.19pts if using DNB.

The new DNB rating algorithm had 5 bets this weekend. 2 winners and 3 losers with a profit of 2.25pts to H/A betting and a profit of 0.19pts if using DNB.

Overall then, the second algorithm did better this weekend although the new DNB algorithm did well too. The disappointing algorithm was the first one although hardly a disaster.

Of course, the systems then take these bets and put them onto the established systems from last season and the new systems from this season. I’ve shown the results below.

In summary, the established systems had 20 bets and created a loss of 1.41pts for H/A betting. For DNB, it was much worse with a loss of 6.6pts from the 20 games.

The new systems had a much better week though. 14 games created a profit of 15.5pts for H/A betting. DNB did OK too with a profit of 7.16pts.

Looking at all systems combined then, 34 bets created a profit of 14.09pts for H/A betting and for DNB, a profit of 0.58pts.

A good return overall this weekend although for many of us following, difficult to make a profit since more of our portfolio weighting is going to be towards the established systems from last season, rather than the new systems from this season!

I’ll be back on Friday with next weekend’s bets although I may do a midweek post with some additional thoughts.

First 'Real' System Bets This Weekend

Here are the first system bets this weekend.

Good luck.

Graeme

The Football Analyst Bets for 3rd/4th September

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/09/2011 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Kidderminster Wrexham 1.92 1.42
03/09/2011 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Barrow Ebbsfleet 2.30 1.67
03/09/2011 Bsq Prem Darlington v Mansfield Mansfield 3.75 2.69
03/09/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Lincoln Lincoln 2.63 1.92
04/09/2011 Bsq Prem Hayes v Tamworth Tamworth 2.65 1.89

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/09/2011 Bsq Prem Wrexham v Kidderminster Wrexham 1.92 1.42
03/09/2011 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Barrow Ebbsfleet 2.30 1.67
03/09/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Lincoln Lincoln 2.63 1.92
04/09/2011 Bsq Prem Hayes v Tamworth Tamworth 2.65 1.89

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/09/2011 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Barrow Ebbsfleet 2.30 1.67
04/09/2011 Bsq Prem Hayes v Tamworth Tamworth 2.65 1.89

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/09/2011 Bsq Prem Darlington v Mansfield Mansfield 3.75 2.69
03/09/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Lincoln Lincoln 2.63 1.92
03/09/2011 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Grimsby Grimsby 3.50 2.50

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/09/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Lincoln Lincoln 2.63 1.92

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/09/2011 Bsq Prem Darlington v Mansfield Mansfield 3.75 2.69
03/09/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Lincoln Lincoln 2.63 1.92

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/09/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Lincoln Lincoln 2.63 1.92

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/09/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Lincoln Lincoln 2.63 1.92

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/09/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Lincoln Lincoln 2.63 1.92

System 8-21
None

System 8-22
None

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/09/2011 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Barrow Ebbsfleet 2.30 1.67
03/09/2011 Bsq Prem Darlington v Mansfield Mansfield 3.75 2.69
04/09/2011 Bsq Prem Hayes v Tamworth Tamworth 2.65 1.89
03/09/2011 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Grimsby Grimsby 3.50 2.50
03/09/2011 Bsq Prem Gateshead v Alfreton Alfreton 7.00 5.41

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/09/2011 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Barrow Ebbsfleet 2.30 1.67
03/09/2011 Bsq Prem Darlington v Mansfield Mansfield 3.75 2.69

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/09/2011 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Barrow Ebbsfleet 2.30 1.67
03/09/2011 Bsq Prem Darlington v Mansfield Mansfield 3.75 2.69

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/09/2011 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Barrow Ebbsfleet 2.30 1.67
03/09/2011 Bsq Prem Darlington v Mansfield Mansfield 3.75 2.69

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/09/2011 Bsq Prem Darlington v Mansfield Mansfield 3.75 2.69
03/09/2011 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Grimsby Grimsby 3.50 2.50

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03/09/2011 Bsq Prem Darlington v Mansfield Mansfield 3.75 2.69

System TOX
None

System STOY
None

System STOZ
None