There has been a lot of games played in this time but ultimately, in terms of P&L, not a lot has changed if I’m honest. Any gains have been given back and things have remained remarkably stable over the last week. As always, there is the usual hard luck story of a late goal going against the systems and a really sore one at that if I’m honest but I’ll touch on it below.
I’ll deal with the established systems first. You can see the breakdown by day and system if you click on the picture but I don’t want to discuss the results in too much detail as the monthly results will deal with how each system has performed and I’m writing that next week, so I’ll stick with the overall results in this post although I’ll no doubt touch on some systems!
Across the period I’m reviewing, a profit has been made of 4.70pts for H/A betting and a profit of 0.96pts for DNB betting for the established systems. When you consider that this covers 80 bets, it’s pretty unusual for my systems to achieve anything like a break-even result over such a large sample of bets. It’s usually always a large profit or a large loss!
Looking at the combined systems only, then a profit of 1.9pts for H/A betting (0.44pts for DNB) was achieved across 33 bets. Again, a very similar result to the overall sample.
Overall, I can’t be too concerned and although this month has proven much more difficult than the preceding two months, I only need to look at some other services/blogs to see how difficult it has been in December to make a profit. With a full set of fixtures to come on Saturday, the month remains in the balance for the established systems as they seek to achieve a profit for the 10th month out of 13.
The same can’t be said for the new systems.
Across the period, a loss of 3.05pts for H/A betting and a loss of 9.90pts for DNB betting. This is from a sample of 64 games, so it is disappointing. As I touched on previously, there is now a clear divergence between the established systems and the new systems with the consensus being that the new systems aren’t as good as the established systems. That’s not to say that they aren’t profitable or won’t be profitable in the future but why would I (or anyone?) want to follow these new systems when they aren’t as good as my other systems. They may be better than most other football systems on the market but they are now starting to look exposed compared to my other systems which have a longer proofing period too.
I should probably split the new systems down into the 3rd algorithm (systems involving 31-33) and the SGM systems. As you will know, the SGM systems have really struggled this season (never been in profit!). The SGM systems made a profit of 4.35pts from 15 bets whereas the other systems made a loss of 7.4pts from 49 games.
As discussed previously, the only shining light on the SGM systems have been the Home bets. This trend is getting even stronger now if I’m honest. The SGM Homes have an ROI of 31% on Homes this season across 70 bets (small sample admittedly). The aways have an ROI of -30% across 120 bets!
When I look at all my systems and the performance of Homes this season, nothing can match the SGM Home bets. Hence, these systems are able to filter out the very best Home bets that all my systems have. Hence, although it may seem like I am wasting my time with these SGM systems this season, there is a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel concerning the Home bets. May help us next season.
Overall, it has been a disappointing month for the new system bets and they do face a losing month. That will be their 2nd losing month in 4 months this season and when you consider that the established systems have only had 3 losing months in 12 months, you can see that the new systems don’t appear to be as strong as the other systems. Of course, Saturday could change that and the New systems may well turn the month around but as of this moment, I think the new systems are under pressure to start improving or they won’t be added to my established systems portfolio next season.
I can’t go without mentioning how different the results above would have been if Carlisle had held on against Preston. Carlisle appeared on 17 systems at odds of 3.2, so if they had won, it was a swing of 54.4pts. They were 3-2 up and conceded a goal in the 92nd minute of the game to draw the game 3-3. Change this result and I expect this post would have read a lot differently but as always, that’s what happens and it is out with my control. Thankfully, things like don’t annoy the systems as much as it annoys me!
I’ll be back tomorrow morning with a post for the weekend bets. I’ll also need a post first thing on Monday morning for the bets on Monday.
Hi, first off, thanks for taking the time to publish such a detailed blog. It takes a fair degree of time and dedication, not only to run all the systems that you do, but also to put them up here for everyone to see. So fair play to you for that.
ReplyDeleteI have perused quite a few of your old entries, but cannot really see a summary of what each system is intended to do. I can see some DNB and H/A bets, so I'm assuming the DNB are straight backs and the H/A are straight lays, but this is guesswork on my part.
I realise you have a lot on your plate, but if you could either summarise what each system is intended to achieve - or alternatively point me to the entry where you have done this previously - then I would be grateful.
Beyond that, I enjoy your blog. It's very different to my own, and thus makes a nice contrast to read. Thanks again.
Hi Soccerdude.
ReplyDeleteCheers for the comment. The post here has a lot of info on the systems and is only 1,500 words long, so won’t take you too long to read.
http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/2011/11/summary-of-systems-in-1500-words.html
The other piece of info you need is understanding what I mean by H/A and DNB. H/A is my term for backing a team to win outright (backing Home or Away) and DNB is short for Draw No Bet. Hence, you place a stake on the team to win and a cover stake on the draw. The same as Asian Handicap 0.
Combined with this insight, hopefully my blog will be a much better read now as you’ll at least understand what I’m waffling on about! ;p
Get back to me with any questions.
Cheers,
Graeme
Thanks Graeme. You're right. Everything does make a lot more sense now I know what you're talking about!
ReplyDeleteActually I had assumed that DNB was Draw No Bet, but had guessed that H/A was Home/Away on the Half-time/Full-time market, which is why I thought you were laying them.
A few years ago I, like you, spent a great deal of time working up a set of algorithms and backtested them. I certaintly didn't have the number of factors that you work with, but on those I did have, I found that the endless tweaking of their respective weights caused it's own problems. I also found it far too time-consuming and so looked for a different route.
Nowadays, I tend to largely trade in-play, which for me has meant turning a corner and regular, if unspectacular, profits. I still do my own stats, but rather a cutdown version to help my in-play trades. Having said that I do still have the odd straight bet.
As mentioned before however, because your blog is so different from my own, I find that I enjoy yours. It's also intriguing to see all the different slants that people put on their betting.
Cheers
Eddie.
Yeah, I can appreciate your comment about the time it takes Eddie. I’m not a huge punter myself but I’ve really got into football betting over the past 2 years as a way to pay for my time to do the work it takes to keep these systems going.
ReplyDeleteHowever, at times like this (busy period with a lot of games), it is absolutely draining and when I think of how much I’ve made this month as it hasn’t been a good month, I do think there are better ways to be spending my time!
On the other hand, I always hoped that if things went really well, people would be following the bets themselves and at some point, would be willing to pay a subscription fee for my bets. I have a small subscriber base following this season for a minimal fee but if this season goes well, I hope to launch a website next season and try to earn enough to cover my time to produce these bets.
It makes me laugh at times as there are people selling ratings/tips from one algorithm and in most cases, one or two systems. I have 3 algorithms, 17 systems and another model which isn’t quite an algorithm but looks to find a certain type of game and this has 3 systems. I don’t exactly make it easy for myself but I’m paying particular attention to how other football ratings services are doing and so far this season, my returns aren’t being matched anywhere. If I look over the last 18 months, there isn’t a service that can match the returns on many of my systems.
I’ve proofed all my bets to the Secret Betting Club and I’m now slowly working my way up their league tables, so hopefully by the time this season ends, lots of people will have made money this season and will be willing to pay a subscription fee next season. Of course, going from a free blog to a subscription based site isn’t easy but it’s the only way I know to cover my time at this. My own footie betting won’t pay for my time unless I keep ramping up stakes but as well as bookmaker restrictions to starting to hit me harder, I struggle for time and I’ve made numerous errors over the last few weeks especially with placing bets in a rush!
Cheers for the comment. I’ll add your blog to my list to read mate. Had a quick read last night and it seems an entertaining read!
Graeme
You're right about paying services. Every man and his dog are offering tips and trading advice - most of whom completely unable to show long-term profits.
ReplyDeleteIt sounds to me like you're going about it the right way. To my mind, a mathematical approach is the only way forward, and I think if you persevere you may have a product that you can attract subscribers with.
I saw from an old post of yours that you mentioned the lack of comments was a bit disheartening, but stick with it and good luck.
Cheers for the support mate. I'll keep ploughing on and building up a decent record for my systems. The future will take care of itself I'm sure.
ReplyDeleteCheers,
Graeme