Similarly to the last review, this review will be fairly
short. Anyone who was following these Euro systems in their first season
probably did so with much reduced stakes. In reality, I would expect they were
also following the higher combined systems since these had the highest ROI’s
during backtesting. Therefore, if the worst happens and the ratings bomb, the
combined systems could possibly be a little bit better based on the fact the
combined systems tend to improve on the base ratings and systems.
Importantly, anyone who
contacted me last Summer for advice on the Euro systems (and had made the
decision they wanted to play these systems in their first season) were told to
play reduced stakes and to minimise the exposure to their portfolio by only selecting
a lower number of systems compared to the UK systems. This meant that most
people ended up with a single Euro Combined system (E2-E7 or E3-E7) in their
portfolio if they wanted to follow these systems. Therefore, all precautions
were taken where possible to ensure that this risk of these systems were
mitigated.
Now the season is over, I
actually think I should have gone one step beyond this and really tried to
steer people clear of these systems altogether. I let my previous success at
rating building affect my judgement and given my previous success at finding
something to work in the UK, I assumed at the very least, I would find a small
profitable edge in the Euro leagues. Hindsight is wonderful and given my lack
of experience of these leagues, in addition to the fact that I don’t see too
many other rating algorithms around for these Euro leagues, I should have been
more cautious.
Next season, I will definitely
NOT be following the Euro systems with any sort of decent sized stakes and I
will be paper trialling these in effect. In reality, I’ll probably play a
couple of the higher combined systems with low stakes (talking £5 or £10!) so I
can get a feel for placing the bets and the type of bets but this will be for
testing purposes only. My suggestion to everyone else next season will be the
same. If they choose to ignore this advice, then fine but it will be my
recommended approach. There is no rush at this game and if we find these bets
are massively profitable next season, we can follow them the season after and
increase stakes after that season if things go well. Looking at the results of
the Euro combined systems coming up, I actually think a lot of us following
last season were lucky in the sense the results could have been much, much
worse! I don’t want anyone to put themselves in that position again.
Season 2012/13 Performance & All Live Results
I can probably refer back to
the comment I just made about luck now I see these results. The fact the top 3
combined systems managed a small profit when the base ratings performed very
badly is partially down to luck I think as well as the fact that it shows why I
cross refer my algorithms! The two most popular systems people followed were
E2-E7 and E3-E7 and therefore, the fact both escaped with a small profit is
quite amazing and maybe explains why people didn’t really appreciate how bad
the Euro ratings were until much later than me. I guess if the person giving
you the bets is telling you the ratings are rubbish and it’s a matter of time
before they lose money, you maybe struggle to believe it when in effect, you
yourself are making money from following your chosen system or systems.
However, the whole principle
that underlies the systems is that you need to have profitable ratings
algorithms underpinning the systems and unfortunately, for the majority of the
season, this wasn’t happening, regardless of how the systems were
performing. At one point after that amazing weekend when nearly all the
big priced Euro bets won, I thought I was maybe wrong and the ratings were
finally starting to show their worth but it was a false dawn as we later saw.
Overall then, a 25pts loss
from 1,167 bets isn’t a bad performance for the combined systems considering
the base ratings were much worse than this! The fact the top 3 systems
generated a profit is nearly defying logic I suspect but I think we got lucky
last season if I’m honest!
Targets for 2013/14 Season
Can’t say much here that I
didn’t say in the last review but I think the important thing that this season
did show all of us is that my system building by cross referring the algorithms
is very powerful. I know some people reading this actually hate the fact I run
different algorithms and cross refer them whereas others think it’s great and
this season with the Euros has shown the protection this gives you when things
go bad.
My intention is to build two
new algorithms, create 5 base systems E1,E2,E3,E6,E7 and then cross refer them
again to get 6 new combined Euro systems. I don’t think there is anything
wrong with this idea and the execution of it. Unfortunately, I need to do a bit
better than build rating algorithms that create a 10% loss though!
Detailed Analysis
Performance by League
A similar story to the other
Euro systems where there is a massive loss in Italy if backing outright but a
profit if using AH0.5. France and Spain are profitable outright but they don’t
suffer from too many draws and the German league just looks impossible!
Performance by Home and Away
Both Homes and Aways have been
marginally loss making overall. Both types of bets are profitable on the higher
combined systems though.
Performance by Home and Away by League
Same idea as the last review
where there are a couple of pockets of bets that are highly profitable but the
rest are all loss making. Again, given I’m rebuilding from scratch this Summer,
no point in trying to draw any conclusions as they won’t be valid for next
season.
Performance by Odds
Good luck!
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