As the title suggests, there are a couple of downloads
available for blog readers and subscribers (and also potential subscribers next
season). All of my season reviews have been written with me looking at these
sheets and analysing these, so instead of looking at the pictures on the blog
now, you can now see the tables in Excel.
Season Results by
System – This sheet contains the results by system for each season as well
as the return on capital figures from last season
Season Results Summary – Contains the
results by system for last season and also sets out the targets and betting
banks for the upcoming season.
One table I have included within the spreadsheet is
the table below. There is a lot of info in here and as I’ve discussed before on
the blog, I quite like the idea of being able to rank the systems in some way
but there is no easy way. I have 4 rankings shown in the table.
I’ve ranked the systems by the average ROC they have
achieved each season. Not a great measure as it is much easier for a system to
achieve a high ROC in one season compared to a system that has been live for 3
seasons.
I’ve ranked them by ROI*the number of bets. This measure
isn’t great as it puts too much emphasis on bet number I think and not enough
emphasis on ROI.
I’ve ranked them by a simple Chisq Test calculation
although from my email exchanges with my mathematician follower, I think this
is a flawed measure. I've ignored the over-round in the calculation.
Lastly, someone else got in touch and suggested I use a
T-distribution to formulate a P-value based on the formulae I’ve used in the
sheet. Again, I’m no statistician, so I can’t say for certain how accurate this
measure is but from what I can see, it seems to rank the systems in a sensible
way although I think it maybe puts too much emphasis on ROI and not enough on
bet number! This again ignores the over-round.
I know from various email correspondence that there is no
right or wrong way to rank the systems. People look for different things and
some would much rather follow a system with a high ROI and lower bet number since it is a big drop
in return before a loss is made. Others prefer the lower ROI and higher bet
number as they more confidence from the fact the system has shown an edge over
so many bets.
When looking at your portfolio of systems to follow next
season, I suggest everyone tries to give some thought into what they are
looking for next season. It’s easy to say that you want to double the betting
bank or achieve a 50% ROC next season but it’s how you plan to get there that
matters!
In terms of next steps this Summer, there are 3 major bits
of work I need to do before I can turn my attention to helping others prepare
for next season.
1). Build the draw ratings and draw systems and share the
results on the blog.
2). Finish the value % ratings project I’ve been working
on and share the findings on the blog. Will include a download of all live bets
and % value ratings.
3). Build the new Euro ratings and Euro systems and share
the results on the blog.
Whilst I’m working on these things over the next month or
so, the blog will go quiet. I’ll obviously post up the findings of what I’m
doing when it is complete but all 3 things above will take 1-2 weeks each. So,
don’t expect too many blog posts over the next month or so.
I would suggest that everyone who is following next
season start pulling together their own thoughts from the season reviews and
have a good idea about what they want to follow next season. Although I’ll
contact everyone in due course, I won’t have too much time to chew the fat with
everyone this Summer and therefore, it would help me if as many of you do your
own work as far as possible. The ideas can be bounced off of me and I can give
you my own thoughts but what I don’t want is 40 people writing to me at once in
6 weeks or so saying what should I do next season?
I’ve had a few emails around when the website opens up
this Summer for new subscribers. Limited places will be available from 1st
July. If you are on the waiting list, you will get first chance to join later
this month but thereafter, it’s first come, first served until the service is
full for next season. I would suggest anyone who is interested in joining does
so at the start of July as I want the service closed as early as possible so I
can turn my attention to helping as many of you as possible with advice for next
season.
Hi Graeme
ReplyDeleteWell done for the last season, and good luck for the forthcoming one too.
My question is a bit selfish, but I notice your downloadable spreadsheets are directly embedded in your posts. How do you do that? On my own blog, I've taken to directing people to Dropbox to download any spreadsheets, but I'd much rather use your system.
Any help you can offer would be appreciated.
Cheers
Eddie.
Hi Eddie. Cheers for the comment mate.
ReplyDeleteI think I'm doing the same as you're doing but instead of using dropbox, I'm uploading the sheets to my website and then pasting the link in the blog post.
I think you maybe looked quickly and thought the upload was on blogger but it's a totally different site mate.
I then just paste the link to download the sheet into the blog post. There must be a way on dropbox to get a link to download the sheet for people to use I suspect Eddie.
Graeme
Okay, thanks for that. Thought you were doing something super-whizzy that I could learn.
ReplyDeleteThanks for replying.