Well, well, well. Maybe I should take up clairvoyance
rather than football betting as quite simply, some of my comments in the last
results post were almost prophetic….
“The only thing
I’ve learnt over the last 3-4 seasons is that when you have a really decent run
of form with the ratings, the next drawdown isn’t too far away and therefore, I
am sort of expecting a correction. Given the poor returns over the season, this
will be frustrating for many following but I’ve seen it too many times now to
know that we’re definitely going to hit a poor spell soon. How bad it will be,
I’ve no idea but let’s keep an eye out for it as I’m sure it’s not too far
away!”
My comments were as a direct result of me being up to
date with my own portfolio results and one thing I have tended to find since I started
betting on footie is that whenever I have a sudden upturn, a drawdown isn’t too
far away. I keep a long-term trendline on my overall football results going
back since I started betting on footie and a linear trendline is a fairly good
fit to my P&L (R2 92%). Below shows the last part of the graph
after the results update to 7th January:
As usual, I didn’t do anything about it (one day, I may
react to the trendline as every time I get ahead of the trend, I seem to lose
money!). The last two weeks have been absolutely horrible for my betting, for
the systems and for the service as a whole. I thought I’d seen it all after the
poor runs earlier this season but the last two weeks have been just as bad as
anything I’ve seen earlier this season.
I guess the only thing that keeps me sane is that with
the start the systems had this month, it is only a correction to my P&L. Of
course, as I said in the last post, for those that didn’t manage to win back
the losses from earlier this season, it would be frustrating to suffer this
drawdown but it’s part of the game. The systems will bounce back as they have
always done before.
Here’s the results from the last two weeks.
Est Systems
56.45pts loss from 100 bets. Only 20 winners from 100
bets unfortunately which means a large loss. There weren’t even a lot of draws
on these systems and therefore, it’s just a really poor performance from the
ratings and the systems.
New Systems
These systems get a lot of credit for 100pt profit
winning months but I can’t ever recall the systems losing 100pts in 2 weeks! An
unbelievably poor run of form from the ratings and the systems and so much so,
system 31 is facing up to its first losing month this season which takes some doing
after the start this month!
A loss of 102.13pts from 161 bets. Only 24 winners in
there which is shocking really.
Misc Systems
A loss of 38.21pts from 67 bets. Only 13 winners on these
systems which is shocking again! STOZ in particular appears to have lost the
plot and only hit 2 winners from 16 bets. The worst performing of these 6
systems by far this season having been the best system for the last two
seasons. Just about sums up this season tbh, nothing like the past!
Draw Systems
Not for the first time this season, these systems buck
the general trend. A profit of 36.83pts
from 112 bets. A really good return given two weeks ago wasn’t great but the
weekend past was much better. These systems started the month really poorly
compared to the other systems, so this is a correction going the opposite way
to most of the other systems.
Euro Systems
These systems started the month poorly like the draw
systems but they’ve really turned the month around. A profit of 77.2pts from
132 bets. The AH returns were also massive as there were quite a lot of draws
and with more luck, these returns could have been much higher.
Under-Over
Systems
Another loss and these systems continue on a sharp
downward trend. A loss of 2.49pts from 19 bets.
Overall, a loss of 85.25pts from 591 bets. The first
results update this month had a profit of 186pts, so at a high level, the
systems are 100pts up this month after a disastrous two weeks. However, with
all the profits coming on the Draws and Euro bets, those without a fully
diversified portfolio across all systems are unlikely to be in profit and are
probably down for the month now.
There is still another weekend to go this month with the
potential for some midweek games too, so the month is in the balance. Let’s see
what the remainder of the month brings……
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