The final
results update of the season. It always feels like a little relief to know that
there are no more results updates until the start of September! The blog will
actually get more busy during the Summer as usual as I’ll review the season
past and start to look ahead to next season but first things first, the final
results of the 2013/14 season.
A poor weekend
really for the UK systems but it hinged on another multiple system bet which
shortened as usual pre-match but then didn’t win as usual. These bets have been
a nightmare this season and it’s these bets that have been the difference
between an OK season and a good season. Any profits achieved this season has
been in spite of these higher combined system bets losing money over the season
which is disappointing. Even more disappointing for those that set themselves
up to only follow this small sample of bets this season but that’s the way it goes
sometimes. I’m sure people have learnt
more this season than any of the previous 3 seasons about how to try to use the
ratings and systems to make money.
A quick
mention on a good end to the season for the Euro bets. The Euro bets have
performed well this season although I suspect it has been a fairly easy season
to make money from betting on Homes/Aways due to the fact that the draw hasn’t
been too much of a pest in the Euro leagues. Last season, the draw really hurt
the old Euro ratings but this season, they’ve done much better. Part of this is
down to the fact that the draw % is lower in these leagues but the other part
has been down to a change in emphasis from Aways to Homes in the Euro leagues
for my ratings. This has worked well I think and it will be interesting to look
back over the season during the Summer.
Anyway, here’s
the results for the weekend past.
Est Systems
9 system bets,
9 losers. Was actually only 3 teams but no winners.
New Systems
A loss of
9.85pts from 21 bets.
Misc Systems
8 system bets,
8 losers.
Draw Systems
5 system bets,
5 losers.
Euro Systems
A profit of
28.7pts from 59 bets. A really good result and a nice performance from both
algorithms although the combined systems didn’t catch too much of the winners.
E3 pulled out a great winner at 5.50 though, so can’t complain too much.
Overall, a
loss of 3.15pts from 102 bets.
Phew…..roll on 2014/15 season!
“Any profits achieved this season has been in spite of these higher combined system bets losing money over the season which is disappointing. “
ReplyDeleteI’m not sure I understand this statement.
Would you care to explain what you mean exactly?
Dmitri
Hi Dmitri.
ReplyDeleteComment seems fairly self-explanatory I think.
If the bets that appear most on a set of systems lose money, then for the systems to make money overall, the other bets clearly need to have done better. Steve lost £40k this season and yet, the overall systems were profitable. For this to have happened, Steve’s sample of bets must have been loss making and we know that he followed the bets on the higher combined systems that appeared the most times. When the 11pt bets are losing money on a set of 11 systems, to make a profit overall means you need a great performance from the lower staked bets. We had that this season. Tage’s analysis of his Max 4, Min 5 theoretical system backs this up. Min 5 lost money this season for the first time over a season. As Tage has shown, Max 4 is better than Min 5 long-term anyway but it’s still surprising that Min 5 lost money this season.
As for the comment about being disappointed with their performance, of course I am. These higher combined systems had the highest ROIs coming into the season (and they still have the highest ROIs as we leave the season) and therefore, to see the losses this season is disappointing. With a low volume of bets like this, you are prone to having a season where the edge doesn’t show through if things don’t go too well. We have had that this season. Anyone following a very low volume of bets knows the potential is there to make a loss. Steve has acknowledged this too and therefore, that’s why I’m fairly relaxed about Steve’s losses this season.
Hope this makes sense.
Graeme
Thank you for the answer.
ReplyDeleteThe issue that puzzles me is, that you take it as a fact, that the higher combined system bets have lost money this season.
It surely depends on at least two factors:
1. Which bets do you consider as high combined system bets.
2. Which portfolio do you use.
To illustrate my point I will take Steve.
I know from his blog that he was in touch with you before he made his decision about how to construct his portfolio. He was eager to take great risk in an attempt to maximize his profit. We now know that he has paid the price of $40.000 for this.
To advice a bettor with Steve’s profile I would start by looking at season 2012-13.
To get very high combined bets I would take algorithms 1-4 which has 25 different systems
After splitting the multibets up and analysing the numbers, I would define a high combined bet as one with 15-25 systems.
This portfolio had 172 unique bets and made a profit of 784 pts.
With $200 per unit, $3000 - $5000 per bet, Steve would have made $157.000 last season.
Algorithm 1-4 made 750 pts last season, so there was actually a loss for betting 1-14 multibets.
Let’s assume Steve did like these numbers and went for this model in season 2013-14.
He would be very disappointed!
This season there was only 125 unique bets and the profit was a miserable 144 units.
So Steve had to settle for a profit of $29.000. Still better than a loss of $40.000.
Algorithm 1-4 made 151 pts this season, so 1-14 multibets made a profit of 7 units.
Dmitri
Dmitri,
ReplyDeleteAs Steve has admitted, he is a lazy bettor who wants to follow a small number of bets to lump a great sum of cash on each week. The chance of Steve taking my bets each week and filtering them to find the bets you describe in this post is nill.
To be clear, Steve chose his portfolio of bets. I added two draw systems but I even got that wrong as the 4 combined systems (D1-D6 to D2-D7) made 148.3pts and Steve’s two Draw systems made a loss! Shows how tricky it can be cherry picking bets.
I ran the portfolio Steve wanted (including the 2 draw systems I added) through Excel and showed that based on last season, this would have made £X profit. Steve said thanks very much and he was set for this season.
At season end, 35 of 50 outright betting systems are in profit. Steve has 13 systems in his portfolio and 7 are loss making this season to 1pt level stakes. If I had chosen D2-D6 and D2-D7 or if Steve had chosen 31-41 instead of 31-42 or if Steve had chosen 6-21 instead of 6-22 to 8-22, I don’t think Steve would have complained too much about his profit this season. He didn’t choose them, I didn’t choose well for his draw systems either and therefore, it’s tough luck!
In the past few days, I’ve had various emails from subscribers thanking me for the season and the profits they have made. As I keep saying, we all receive the same data and bets every week. The fact that some do better than others is what makes life interesting. Unfortunately for me (or is it?), one of the most vocal subscribers runs a very public blog and has lost 40k this season!
In the past two days, I’ve read an email from a subscriber who has made £65k this season (65% ROC) and I’ve read Steve’s blog whereby he has lost 40k (-53% ROC). That’s a big swing considering it’s the same service but that’s the fun of TFA I think. It would help me with replacing any members who leave this Summer if Steve had made the £65k but you know what, I’m not too worried about this. I know the majority of people following made money this season, I made money this season myself and therefore, that’s not a bad result. I would prefer if every member made a profit like the first 3 seasons but a losing season was always going to happen at some point for some members I suspect.
Cheers,
Graeme