One of the
best additions to the service IMO this season has been the work I’ve done on
Underlying Results. I probably have another big piece of work to do on this for
the Euro leagues but I can hopefully tackle that later this Summer. I think
understanding the relationship between the underlying results and the system
results is important due to the fact it allows us to take a more objective view
of how the systems are performing.
At the end of
the day, we all know the systems are judged on their P&L and this is the
only way the systems could be judged that is meaningful. However, when you have
as many system bets as my systems have each season, being able to understand
why we’re seeing some of the results we’re seeing is important for a couple of
reasons. Early on last season, I was at a loss to explain what had happened in
September 2013 as quite simply, the performance of the Aways bets were so poor
and although it was offset a little by the improved performance of the Home
bets, due to the make up of the bets, it resulted in a substantial loss on all
4 algorithms. It’s easy with hindsight to look back now after the work I’ve
done and say it was simply due to the below performance of the Away bets and it
mirrored the results in Feb-12 or Apr-11 but at the end of September, I was
pulling my hair out along with everyone else.
The same can
be said for the Mar-14 results although having been through the pain in
September, going through it again so soon after wasn’t quite as bad as going
through it the first time round.
I guess the
point I’m getting at is that by tracking the underlying results, it allows us
to understand why some of the trends with the system results may be occurring.
It doesn’t change the results and if I was some rouge tipster trying to explain
away lack of an edge, I think this info is maybe dangerous in the wrong hands
but given the fact we know my ratings have an edge long-term, the underlying
results allow us to understand some of the variance in the results we’re
seeing.
I personally
have loved the fact I’ve been tracking these results since the turn of the
year. I actually get as much fun updating the underlying results as I do the
system results now as I want to try to understand if my results are being
influenced by the underlying results. Some weekends when there are a flux of
away winners on the systems, I love looking at the underlying results and
seeing that I managed to hit an amazing weekend as there were very few away
winners overall. On the other hand, I do get frustrated if I see a massive bias
towards away winners and we’ve been on the Home bets or we’ve missed all the
nice Away winners.
Going forward,
I will probably try to send the underlying results out every month with the
monthly reviews. As I said in the intro, I probably need to do a piece of work
for the Euro leagues too but this can wait until later on this Summer or I can
try to do it during the season next season. I’m more relaxed about the Euro
leagues tbh although with the Euro Draw systems next season, I may get more
interested!
OK, so I think
that’s an overview of why I’ve started looking at the Underlying results. I’m
not going to repeat everything I’ve said in the previous posts on underlying
results as I think we all know how the season has panned out but I’ll go over
some of the highlights again now we have a full season’s worth of results.
Here’s the
underlying results by season and for the 4 algorithms:
The Underlying
results show that Homes have had their best season so far in terms of ROI,
Draws and Aways have had their worst season.
Overall though, the season is only the 2nd toughest as
2011/12 had a larger loss overall. I guess this season has maybe felt worse as
the Aways started so badly in September, improved throughout the season and
then had a massive loss in March before rebounding again in May. Hence, the
best results the Aways have had all season is at the end of the season. I think
this makes the season feel worse than it ultimately was.
Looking at the
results of the 4 algorithms then, all 4 algorithms made a profit. I was facing
up to the fact at the end of March that it was likely to be the first time over
a season that I’ve had a losing algorithm but the results over the last 6 weeks
of the season were very good and ensured the season ended in profit on each
algorithm. I’ve said this before by my starting point each season is to
hopefully make a profit on each algorithm. Each algorithm has around 500-900
bets a season and therefore, to achieve a profit over this sample of bets is no
mean feat. The fact each algorithm has managed it since its inception shows the
edge the algorithm has.
In terms of
the returns, algorithms 1,2, and 4 had their worst season to date which fits in
with the underlying results. Algorithm 3 bucked the trend and to make an ROI of
7.6% this season is an outstanding performance. Overall, a respectable
performance from the algorithms given the Underlying results.
Here’s the
breakdown by month of the same results:
Not going to
spend too long on the monthly breakdown but I think the pleasing thing for
algorithms 1 and 2 is that during a very tough season, the only losing months
were September and March which were basically impossible months. Algorithm 3
somehow escaped September’s nightmare but then got caught up by the January
losses and also had a strange May month too. Throw in March and that’s 4 months
with losses greater than 10%! However, with the 29.7% return in February and an
amazing 44.3% return in April, the overall season was great! A very strange
season for this algorithm but at the end of the day, with the profit achieved,
I can’t be too disappointed. Algorithm 4 had nightmares for 3 of the months of
the season and then an amazing April and May to finish very strongly.
Hopefully some
of you reading this will be able to look at your own P&L this season and
will be able to validate their results this season with the underlying results
by month and start to make a little bit more sense of what happened to their
P&L this season and why.
Here’s
performance by League:
Given the
issues I’ve had with League Two Aways over the years I’ve been doing this, my
systems were maybe due a run of League Two Away winners? Not sure tbh but I
feel bad for anyone who dropped League Two Aways this season as it was the
easiest league by far for Away winners and my rating results reflected this.
The SPL is a league my ratings can’t get a handle on and it was another tough
season for my bets in this league. Again, not helped by a poor performance from
the Aways in the Underlying results.
Bsq Prem has
been a nightmare for Aways this season and my Away bets have taken a battering
in this league this season. It has been well document by me and others that the
Premiership Draws had a very low strike rate this season but it was also the
case League One, Bsq Prem and SPL too. Hence, when we come to review the Draw
systems this season, it will be interesting to see which leagues generated the
profits. I expect League Two had a good season on the Draw Systems.
I think
although the underlying results don’t appear too bad this season, it masks the
fact that the bias towards certain types of bets is against my ratings.
Here’s the
analysis for all bets based on an odds range:
As we know,
the majority of my system bets fall into the odds range of 2.51 or greater.
Therefore, the bias we have seen this season towards shorter priced teams has
actually impacted my ratings and systems a fair bit. As you can see, if blindly
backing all bets (Home & Away) priced at 2.51 or greater, you would have
lost 6%. Quite simply, Home underdogs really struggled this season, along with
Away underdogs and therefore, for anyone running a selection of algorithms that
specialise in finding underpriced teams, the results are never going to be
great. The fact that my ratings made a profit in this odds range this season
shows the edge they have over the market.
Overall then,
I think that’s enough of an update on the Underlying Results at the end of the
season. I feel like given I’ve talked through it a few times on the blog
already this season, it can become quite repetitive. I’ll keep the analysis of
the Underlying results going next season and we’ll see if it helps us explain
the results of the ratings. I expect it’s a useful analysis tool when things go
wrong but when things are going our way, I’m not sure me sitting here telling
everyone we’re being lucky is going to go down too well!
No comments:
Post a Comment