No time for an acceptance speech.....

My last post before I leave the blog for two weeks……

I noticed the post tonight on the excellent ‘The Market Examiner’ blog that Sam’s service had won a couple of awards in the Secret Betting Club 2011 tipster awards. Well done Sam! :)

Due to everything else going on this week with getting ready for going away, I’ve not had a chance to read the latest SBC magazine edition yet although I’d downloaded it earlier this week.

Anyway, I flicked through it tonight and I noticed that I’ve won an award too. :) Well, I say I but it is actually the systems. I just manage them.

I’ve won the bronze award in the category ‘Best Overall Sports Tipster of 2011 (Open to New Members)’

I feel slightly unfortunate in the sense that the calendar year 2011 wasn’t a great year for the systems if I’m honest (6.1% over the year) but I think if you look at the end of 2010 too, then I think it’s a fair award.

Here’s an update of my overall results that have been proofed by the SBC since the systems went live.



263pts profit across 1,596 bets to date at an ROI of 16.5%. If covering the draw, the profit is 186pts and an ROI of 11.7%.

I’ll be back in two weeks.

11th profitable month from 14 live months

I obviously don’t have time to write a monthly review for January before I stop for a few weeks, I can’t help but post the monthly results for January. :)

I’ll write a detailed review when I’m back but in summary, it ended up a good month for the established systems overall and a great month for the new systems. Considering I was slagging off the new systems only 3 weeks ago, it has been a great comeback by these systems.

The established systems made a profit of 49pts for H/A betting (19.2pts for DNB) from 294 bets. Not the best month but considering how it looked before this weekend, it is great to have another profitable month.

The new systems excelled themselves this month with a profit of 85.9pts for H/A betting (44.8pts for DNB) from 288 bets. This is the best month these systems have had since Mar-11 (which was backtested), so the best results for these systems since they went live this season.

Overall, after today, January has turned out to be a decent month. My own portfolio has had a good month thanks to the newer systems if I’m honest, so I feel a little bad about giving them such a hard time a short while ago.

This is an amazing stat I think but 19 of the 20 systems are now in profit this season. The only system not in profit is system STOZ and it is only 1.5pts down after this weekend.

I’ll do the full monthly review when I’m back from my mid season break.

Today's Results

Here are today’s results……

A profit of 51.92pts on the established systems for H/A betting and a profit of 36.60pts for DNB betting.

A profit on the single systems of 29.45pts for H/A betting and a profit of 21.40pts for DNB betting.

A profit on the combined systems of 22.47pts for H/A betting and a profit of 15.18pts for DNB betting.

Unlike the established systems, the new systems were already well in profit this month and finished the month well too.

A profit on the new systems of 42.74pts for H/A betting and a profit of 34.82pts for DNB betting.

Looking at the splits, systems 31-33 made a profit of 15.65pts for H/A and 10.29pts for DNB betting.

The combined systems made a profit of 14.44pts for H/A and 12.17pts for DNB betting.

The SGM systems made a profit of 12.65pts for H/A and 12.36pts for DNB betting.

Overall today, a profit of 94.66pts for H/A betting and a profit of 71.40pts for DNB betting.

Not too bad if I say so myself. :)

Next bets are in a couple of weeks.

Weekend Bets

This will be the last bets posted on the blog for a couple of weeks. The next bets will be for the weekend of 11th February.

I may try to update the blog for the weekend results and monthly review before I head off on holiday on Sunday but I suspect this may be the last post until I return from holiday in two weeks.

It is a very busy weekend again this weekend. At the moment, it is odds on I suspect that we end up with a losing month (escaped last month with a profit!) for the systems. It has been a tough month overall again and very few systems are in profit. Of course, if tomorrow goes well, things can turn around but I prefer to always think things will be bad and then I’m always prepared for the outcome. ;)

A fair few home games tomorrow appear on a lot of systems. It is actually the lowest average odds on the systems for a few weeks, so I’ll need a higher strike rate than I’ve been seeing recently with the bets. Hitting a 25% strike rate is likely to lead to fairly substantial losses at these odds this weekend.

Anyway, if I don’t post again before my break, good luck for the next few weeks.

The Football Analyst Bets for 21st January
System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Stockport Stockport 4.10 2.96
21/01/2011 Championship Barnsley v Millwall Millwall 3.50 2.47
21/01/2011 Championship Birmingham v Watford Birmingham 1.73 1.28
21/01/2011 Championship Bristol City v Doncaster Bristol City 1.90 1.37
21/01/2011 Championship Burnley v Derby Burnley 1.84 1.33
21/01/2011 Championship Cardiff v Portsmouth Portsmouth 5.00 3.65
21/01/2011 Championship Reading v Hull Hull 4.00 2.86
21/01/2011 Championship West Ham v Notts Forest Notts Forest 5.96 4.51
21/01/2011 League 1 Bury v Yeovil Yeovil 3.75 2.71
21/01/2011 League 1 Charlton v Sheff Utd Sheff Utd 3.40 2.44
21/01/2011 League 1 Oldham v Exeter Exeter 4.20 3.00
21/01/2011 League 1 Preston v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 3.75 2.74
21/01/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Accrington Aldershot 2.63 1.86
21/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Burton Burton 3.30 2.41
21/01/2011 League 2 Crewe v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.71
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05
21/01/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Port Vale Port Vale 3.70 2.68
21/01/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Southend Southend 3.20 2.29
21/01/2011 Premiership Stoke v West Brom West Brom 4.33 3.11
21/01/2011 Premiership Sunderland v Swansea Sunderland 1.91 1.36
21/01/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v Motherwell Dundee Utd 2.25 1.61
21/01/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dunfermline Dunfermline 6.50 4.96

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Championship Birmingham v Watford Birmingham 1.73 1.28
21/01/2011 Championship Bristol City v Doncaster Bristol City 1.90 1.37
21/01/2011 Championship Burnley v Derby Burnley 1.84 1.33
21/01/2011 League 1 Oldham v Exeter Exeter 4.20 3.00
21/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Burton Burton 3.30 2.41
21/01/2011 League 2 Crewe v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.71
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05
21/01/2011 Premiership Stoke v West Brom West Brom 4.33 3.11

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Championship Birmingham v Watford Birmingham 1.73 1.28
21/01/2011 Championship Bristol City v Doncaster Bristol City 1.90 1.37
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Stockport Stockport 4.10 2.96
21/01/2011 Championship Barnsley v Millwall Millwall 3.50 2.47
21/01/2011 Championship Birmingham v Watford Birmingham 1.73 1.28
21/01/2011 Championship Bristol City v Doncaster Bristol City 1.90 1.37
21/01/2011 Championship Burnley v Derby Burnley 1.84 1.33
21/01/2011 Championship Cardiff v Portsmouth Portsmouth 5.00 3.65
21/01/2011 Championship West Ham v Notts Forest Notts Forest 5.96 4.51
21/01/2011 League 1 Bury v Yeovil Yeovil 3.75 2.71
21/01/2011 League 1 Charlton v Sheff Utd Sheff Utd 3.40 2.44
21/01/2011 League 1 Oldham v Exeter Exeter 4.20 3.00
21/01/2011 League 1 Preston v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 3.75 2.74
21/01/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Accrington Aldershot 2.63 1.86
21/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Burton Burton 3.30 2.41
21/01/2011 League 2 Crewe v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.71
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05
21/01/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Port Vale Port Vale 3.70 2.68
21/01/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Southend Southend 3.20 2.29
21/01/2011 Premiership Stoke v West Brom West Brom 4.33 3.11
21/01/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v Motherwell Dundee Utd 2.25 1.61
21/01/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dunfermline Dunfermline 6.50 4.96

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Championship Birmingham v Watford Birmingham 1.73 1.28
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Stockport Stockport 4.10 2.96
21/01/2011 Championship Barnsley v Millwall Millwall 3.50 2.47
21/01/2011 Championship Birmingham v Watford Birmingham 1.73 1.28
21/01/2011 Championship Bristol City v Doncaster Bristol City 1.90 1.37
21/01/2011 Championship Burnley v Derby Burnley 1.84 1.33
21/01/2011 Championship Cardiff v Portsmouth Portsmouth 5.00 3.65
21/01/2011 Championship West Ham v Notts Forest Notts Forest 5.96 4.51
21/01/2011 League 1 Bury v Yeovil Yeovil 3.75 2.71
21/01/2011 League 1 Charlton v Sheff Utd Sheff Utd 3.40 2.44
21/01/2011 League 1 Oldham v Exeter Exeter 4.20 3.00
21/01/2011 League 1 Preston v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 3.75 2.74
21/01/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Accrington Aldershot 2.63 1.86
21/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Burton Burton 3.30 2.41
21/01/2011 League 2 Crewe v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.71
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05
21/01/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Port Vale Port Vale 3.70 2.68
21/01/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Southend Southend 3.20 2.29
21/01/2011 Premiership Stoke v West Brom West Brom 4.33 3.11
21/01/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v Motherwell Dundee Utd 2.25 1.61
21/01/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dunfermline Dunfermline 6.50 4.96

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Championship Birmingham v Watford Birmingham 1.73 1.28
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Championship Birmingham v Watford Birmingham 1.73 1.28
21/01/2011 Championship Bristol City v Doncaster Bristol City 1.90 1.37
21/01/2011 Championship Burnley v Derby Burnley 1.84 1.33
21/01/2011 League 1 Oldham v Exeter Exeter 4.20 3.00
21/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Burton Burton 3.30 2.41
21/01/2011 League 2 Crewe v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.71
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05
21/01/2011 Premiership Stoke v West Brom West Brom 4.33 3.11

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Championship Birmingham v Watford Birmingham 1.73 1.28
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Championship Birmingham v Watford Birmingham 1.73 1.28
21/01/2011 Championship Bristol City v Doncaster Bristol City 1.90 1.37
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Championship Birmingham v Watford Birmingham 1.73 1.28
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Stockport Stockport 4.10 2.96
21/01/2011 Championship Barnsley v Millwall Millwall 3.50 2.47
21/01/2011 Championship Bristol City v Doncaster Bristol City 1.90 1.37
21/01/2011 Championship Burnley v Derby Burnley 1.84 1.33
21/01/2011 Championship Cardiff v Portsmouth Portsmouth 5.00 3.65
21/01/2011 Championship Reading v Hull Hull 4.00 2.86
21/01/2011 League 1 Charlton v Sheff Utd Sheff Utd 3.40 2.44
21/01/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Accrington Aldershot 2.63 1.86
21/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Burton Burton 3.30 2.41
21/01/2011 League 2 Crewe v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.71
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05
21/01/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Port Vale Port Vale 3.70 2.68
21/01/2011 Premiership Sunderland v Swansea Sunderland 1.91 1.36
21/01/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v Motherwell Dundee Utd 2.25 1.61
21/01/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dunfermline Dunfermline 6.50 4.96

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Championship Bristol City v Doncaster Bristol City 1.90 1.37
21/01/2011 League 1 Charlton v Sheff Utd Sheff Utd 3.40 2.44
21/01/2011 League 2 Crewe v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.71
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05
21/01/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Port Vale Port Vale 3.70 2.68

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Championship Bristol City v Doncaster Bristol City 1.90 1.37
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Championship Bristol City v Doncaster Bristol City 1.90 1.37
21/01/2011 League 1 Charlton v Sheff Utd Sheff Utd 3.40 2.44
21/01/2011 League 2 Crewe v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.71
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05
21/01/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Port Vale Port Vale 3.70 2.68

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Stockport Stockport 4.10 2.96
21/01/2011 Championship Barnsley v Millwall Millwall 3.50 2.47
21/01/2011 Championship Bristol City v Doncaster Bristol City 1.90 1.37
21/01/2011 Championship Burnley v Derby Burnley 1.84 1.33
21/01/2011 Championship Cardiff v Portsmouth Portsmouth 5.00 3.65
21/01/2011 League 1 Charlton v Sheff Utd Sheff Utd 3.40 2.44
21/01/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Accrington Aldershot 2.63 1.86
21/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Burton Burton 3.30 2.41
21/01/2011 League 2 Crewe v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.71
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05
21/01/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Port Vale Port Vale 3.70 2.68
21/01/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v Motherwell Dundee Utd 2.25 1.61
21/01/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dunfermline Dunfermline 6.50 4.96

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Stockport Stockport 4.10 2.96
21/01/2011 Championship Barnsley v Millwall Millwall 3.50 2.47
21/01/2011 Championship Bristol City v Doncaster Bristol City 1.90 1.37
21/01/2011 Championship Burnley v Derby Burnley 1.84 1.33
21/01/2011 Championship Cardiff v Portsmouth Portsmouth 5.00 3.65
21/01/2011 League 1 Charlton v Sheff Utd Sheff Utd 3.40 2.44
21/01/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Accrington Aldershot 2.63 1.86
21/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Burton Burton 3.30 2.41
21/01/2011 League 2 Crewe v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.71
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05
21/01/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Port Vale Port Vale 3.70 2.68
21/01/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v Motherwell Dundee Utd 2.25 1.61
21/01/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dunfermline Dunfermline 6.50 4.96

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Stockport Stockport 4.10 2.96 New Criteria
21/01/2011 Championship Barnsley v Millwall Millwall 3.50 2.47 New Criteria
21/01/2011 Championship Burnley v Derby Burnley 1.84 1.33 Old Criteria
21/01/2011 Championship West Ham v Notts Forest Notts Forest 5.96 4.51 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 1 Bury v Yeovil Yeovil 3.75 2.71 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 1 Charlton v Sheff Utd Sheff Utd 3.40 2.44 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 1 Oldham v Exeter Exeter 4.20 3.00 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 1 Preston v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 3.75 2.74 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 2 Crewe v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.71 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Port Vale Port Vale 3.70 2.68 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Southend Southend 3.20 2.29 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Accrington Aldershot 2.63 1.86 Old Criteria
21/01/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v Motherwell Dundee Utd 2.25 1.61 Old Criteria
21/01/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dunfermline Dunfermline 6.50 4.96 Old Criteria

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Stockport Stockport 4.10 2.96 New Criteria
21/01/2011 Championship Barnsley v Millwall Millwall 3.50 2.47 New Criteria
21/01/2011 Championship Burnley v Derby Burnley 1.84 1.33 Old Criteria
21/01/2011 Championship West Ham v Notts Forest Notts Forest 5.96 4.51 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 1 Bury v Yeovil Yeovil 3.75 2.71 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 1 Charlton v Sheff Utd Sheff Utd 3.40 2.44 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 1 Oldham v Exeter Exeter 4.20 3.00 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 1 Preston v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 3.75 2.74 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 2 Crewe v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.71 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Port Vale Port Vale 3.70 2.68 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 2 Shrewsbury v Southend Southend 3.20 2.29 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Accrington Aldershot 2.63 1.86 Old Criteria
21/01/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v Motherwell Dundee Utd 2.25 1.61 Old Criteria
21/01/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dunfermline Dunfermline 6.50 4.96 Old Criteria

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/01/2011 Bsq Prem Braintree v Stockport Stockport 4.10 2.96 New Criteria
21/01/2011 Championship Barnsley v Millwall Millwall 3.50 2.47 New Criteria
21/01/2011 Championship Burnley v Derby Burnley 1.84 1.33 Old Criteria
21/01/2011 League 1 Charlton v Sheff Utd Sheff Utd 3.40 2.44 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 2 Crewe v Dagenham Dagenham 3.75 2.71 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 2 Northampton v Barnet Barnet 2.88 2.05 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 2 Rotherham v Port Vale Port Vale 3.70 2.68 New Criteria
21/01/2011 League 2 Aldershot v Accrington Aldershot 2.63 1.86 Old Criteria
21/01/2011 Premiership Sunderland v Swansea Sunderland 1.91 1.36 Old Criteria
21/01/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v Motherwell Dundee Utd 2.25 1.61 Old Criteria

Going against the crowd......

I was discussing something with a colleague at work the yesterday about the football bets I have. I was bemoaning the fact that I back a helluva lot of the same teams week in, week out and in my mind, there are some teams that continually cost me money!

Off the top of my head, I quoted to him that I’m sure Accrington never win for me (usually draw I thought!). The reason the topic of conversation came up though was because he’s a Hibs fan and I was annoyed that I had dropped Hibs as a bet on Saturday even though I thought they’d win (they were lucky in the end!). I’m pretty strict with the value bets on lower priced aways and quite simply, I will only go below around 7/4 on Aways if I think there is a great deal of value thrown up by the ratings. i.e. more than I’d normally need to make the team a value selection. This additional value buffer is something I introduced this season after last season’s performance of the lower priced away bets.

Anyway, I mentioned to him that I never seem to be able to get Hibs correct and every time I back them, they let me down.

You can maybe tell where this is going but am I right about the above teams? Which teams are bogey teams for the systems and which teams are friends of the systems?

Below is a table which shows the top and bottom 15 teams from all the backtesting and live results. I’ve sorted it by the number of points won on H/A betting but I could have easily sorted it on ROI or looked at DNB. I’ve also looked at last season and this season in particular since these seasons are live results only.

As you will see, it is interesting reading……..

For the record, I was spot on about Accrington! Last season, they lost the systems 87pts from 155 bets. This season, they’ve lost the systems 19.6pts from 47 bets. Since 2006, they’ve cost the systems 51pts from 386 bets.

As for my mate’s team Hibs, it’s worse than I thought…. Hibs have officially cost the systems the second highest number of pts in the last 6 seasons! A loss of 67pts from 183 bets. The worst team is actually Grays who lost the systems 87pts from 221 bets. Thankfully, this is solely from the early years as they haven’t been in the Bsq Prem the last two seasons, so I haven’t actually ever placed a bet on Grays!

I know I can’t do anything about it but it does make interesting reading. This season, Portsmouth, Plymouth, MK Dons and Braintree have no wins between them from 111 bets! I’ll definitely have lower confidence when I’m backing these teams the next time they appear!

At the other end of the scale, I said to my friend that I thought Aldershot were a favourite team of mines as I know I’ve backed them a lot in the last 18 months or so and they’ve done OK. Looking at the overall picture, Aldershot have won the second highest number of pts which shows my thinking wasn’t too far off! Last season, they won the 5th highest and this season, they are currently ranked 13th.

Oldham have actually won my systems the most points ever with a highly impressive 250pts from 517 games!

I think from looking at the tables, one thing that is apparent is the fact that I back unfashionable teams. When you consider that around ¾ of my bets are on away teams, then you can understand why backing these unfashionable teams away from home creates an edge in itself. They aren’t likely to be bet on from Joe Punter! If you did similar analysis with other people using football ratings on these leagues, I’m sure you’d see the same picture there where we’re all backing unfashionable teams.

I don’t honestly know how much this matters in betting but I honestly believe that an extra little edge is created by backing against teams that Joe Punter likes to back. This will be bigger name sides in the lower leagues against the more unfashionable teams. Hence, by going against the obvious (at the highest level which has to be team name!), then I suspect that you end up creating an edge over other punters anyway.

I’ve said this a lot on the blog over the past 2 years but going against the crowd at betting is definitely the best way to make money gambling in my opinion.

Weekend Round Up

At first glance, Saturday looks like a disaster but when you look at the overall P&L and the results, you can’t help but feel it could have been better. The draw reared its ugly head again on some systems and at the end of the day, most of the highest value selections didn’t win, so it was never going to be a good day. However, I think we were maybe one goal away from being an OK day. Whatever way I look at it though, it’s a losing day!

Algorithm one had 18 bets, 4 winners, 7 draws and 7 losers. A loss of 3.68pts for H/A betting and a loss of only 0.57pts if covering the draw using DNB.

Algorithm two also had 18 bets with 4 winners, 6 draws and 8 losers. A loss of 3.68pts for H/A betting and a loss of 1.57pts for DNB.

Algorithm three had 11 bets. 3 winners, 3 draws and 5 losers. A profit of 1.52pts for H/A betting and a profit of 1.10pts for DNB.

Can’t recall too many times this season when algorithm three has outperformed the other two if I’m honest.

The established systems made a loss of 32.84pts for H/A and 12.41pts for DNB. Splitting it by system, it is 16.08pts lost on the combined systems and 16.76pts lost on the single systems.

The new systems made a profit of 7.72pts for H/A and 10.27pts for DNB. The DNB single systems lost 3.48pts, the DNB combined systems won 3.04pts and the SGM systems won 8.16pts.

I suspect it may actually be the first time this season the SGM systems have made more profit than any other systems!

After this weekend, there are 16 systems in profit this season. System 8, TOX, STOY and STOZ are the ones not in profit. Annoyingly, if you look at Jan-12 in isolation, these 4 systems are the ones who are doing pretty well this month!

I’d sort of given up hope on these 4 systems this season if I’m honest. On 1st October, system 8 was 24.4 down from the peak last season. That’s a fairly big drop! It has now recovered to be only 13pts down 38 games later. Hence, it has made a profit of 11.4pts from the last 38 games (30% ROI).

I’ve mentioned this before on the blog but TOX, STOY and STOZ fascinate me in the sense that when my other systems do well, these systems struggle and vice versa. Most systems lost on Saturday but these systems all made profits. These systems have only been in profit once this season but they have a near 30% ROI on Homes this season. The Aways on these systems are easily the worst aways my other systems find! The aways on the other systems are +14% and the Homes are break-even!

It may well be the case that these systems can be used in some way to balance out the variations in the other systems. I run two portfolios and the combined system (6-21 to 8-22) lost badly on Saturday but the other portfolio of new systems covered a chunk of the losses. Ultimately, I bemoaned these other systems last weekend for being rubbish, so I’m not changing my tune yet but at least they didn’t lose this weekend!

Overall, a weekend where those that haven’t been doing well this season following the systems may have actually had an OK day and those that have been following the best systems this season struggled I suspect on Saturday. As always, can’t read too much into one day in isolation.

There are no midweek bets this week, so the next post should be on Friday unless I can find something interesting to write about before then…….

Tomorrow's Bets

It's hard to explain the significance of tomorrow in the context of this season. It's the busiest single day so far this season and looking back, it is one of the busiest days ever considering that there are only two games in the Bsq Prem!

Too many important games to mention but there is a massive bias towards Away bets as usual. The average odds are 3.85 and there are 160 bets across 20 systems. There are actually 21 different value bets and 17 appear on system 6-21, so 17 important games for the systems!

Wish me luck.......

The Football Analyst Bets for 14th January

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.88 2.01
14/01/2011 Championship Derby v Coventry Coventry 4.50 3.23
14/01/2011 Championship Hull v Peterborough Hull 1.80 1.33
14/01/2011 League 1 Brentford v Wallsall Wallsall 4.70 3.42
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53
14/01/2011 League 1 Exeter v Hartlepool Hartlepool 3.20 2.26
14/01/2011 League 1 MK Dons v Carlisle Carlisle 4.52 3.31
14/01/2011 League 1 Preston v Wycombe Wycombe 4.75 3.53
14/01/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Tranmere Tranmere 2.82 1.99
14/01/2011 League 2 Accrington v Barnet Barnet 5.00 3.74
14/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Morecambe Morecambe 3.29 2.34
14/01/2011 League 2 Macclesfield v Torquay Macclesfield 2.92 2.06
14/01/2011 Premiership Aston Villa v Everton Everton 3.30 2.31
14/01/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Fulham Blackburn 3.02 2.13
14/01/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Kilmarnock Aberdeen 2.21 1.56
14/01/2011 SPL Hearts v St Mirren St Mirren 5.21 3.81
14/01/2011 SPL Motherwell v Inverness Inverness 4.50 3.23
14/01/2011 SPL St Johnstone v Rangers St Johnstone 7.00 5.31

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.88 2.01
14/01/2011 Championship Hull v Peterborough Hull 1.80 1.33
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53
14/01/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Tranmere Tranmere 2.82 1.99
14/01/2011 Premiership Aston Villa v Everton Everton 3.30 2.31

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.88 2.01
14/01/2011 Championship Hull v Peterborough Hull 1.80 1.33
14/01/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Tranmere Tranmere 2.82 1.99

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.88 2.01
14/01/2011 Championship Derby v Coventry Coventry 4.50 3.23
14/01/2011 Championship Hull v Peterborough Hull 1.80 1.33
14/01/2011 League 1 Bournemouth v Notts County Notts County 3.86 2.80
14/01/2011 League 1 Brentford v Wallsall Wallsall 4.70 3.42
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53
14/01/2011 League 1 MK Dons v Carlisle Carlisle 4.52 3.31
14/01/2011 League 1 Preston v Wycombe Wycombe 4.75 3.53
14/01/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Tranmere Tranmere 2.82 1.99
14/01/2011 League 2 Accrington v Barnet Barnet 5.00 3.74
14/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Morecambe Morecambe 3.29 2.34
14/01/2011 League 2 Macclesfield v Torquay Macclesfield 2.92 2.06
14/01/2011 Premiership Aston Villa v Everton Everton 3.30 2.31
14/01/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Fulham Blackburn 3.02 2.13
14/01/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Kilmarnock Aberdeen 2.21 1.56
14/01/2011 SPL Celtic v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 14.40 12.13
14/01/2011 SPL Hearts v St Mirren St Mirren 5.21 3.81
14/01/2011 SPL Motherwell v Inverness Inverness 4.50 3.23

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.88 2.01
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.88 2.01
14/01/2011 Championship Derby v Coventry Coventry 4.50 3.23
14/01/2011 Championship Hull v Peterborough Hull 1.80 1.33
14/01/2011 League 1 Brentford v Wallsall Wallsall 4.70 3.42
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53
14/01/2011 League 1 MK Dons v Carlisle Carlisle 4.52 3.31
14/01/2011 League 1 Preston v Wycombe Wycombe 4.75 3.53
14/01/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Tranmere Tranmere 2.82 1.99
14/01/2011 League 2 Accrington v Barnet Barnet 5.00 3.74
14/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Morecambe Morecambe 3.29 2.34
14/01/2011 League 2 Macclesfield v Torquay Macclesfield 2.92 2.06
14/01/2011 Premiership Aston Villa v Everton Everton 3.30 2.31
14/01/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Fulham Blackburn 3.02 2.13
14/01/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Kilmarnock Aberdeen 2.21 1.56
14/01/2011 SPL Hearts v St Mirren St Mirren 5.21 3.81
14/01/2011 SPL Motherwell v Inverness Inverness 4.50 3.23

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.88 2.01
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.88 2.01
14/01/2011 Championship Hull v Peterborough Hull 1.80 1.33
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53
14/01/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Tranmere Tranmere 2.82 1.99
14/01/2011 Premiership Aston Villa v Everton Everton 3.30 2.31

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.88 2.01
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.88 2.01
14/01/2011 Championship Hull v Peterborough Hull 1.80 1.33
14/01/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Tranmere Tranmere 2.82 1.99

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.88 2.01

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 Championship Derby v Coventry Coventry 4.50 3.23
14/01/2011 League 1 Brentford v Wallsall Wallsall 4.70 3.42
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53
14/01/2011 League 1 MK Dons v Carlisle Carlisle 4.52 3.31
14/01/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Tranmere Tranmere 2.82 1.99
14/01/2011 League 2 Accrington v Barnet Barnet 5.00 3.74
14/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Morecambe Morecambe 3.29 2.34
14/01/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Fulham Blackburn 3.02 2.13
14/01/2011 SPL Celtic v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 14.40 12.13
14/01/2011 SPL Motherwell v Inverness Inverness 4.50 3.23
14/01/2011 SPL St Johnstone v Rangers St Johnstone 7.00 5.31

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53
14/01/2011 SPL St Johnstone v Rangers St Johnstone 7.00 5.31

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53
14/01/2011 SPL St Johnstone v Rangers St Johnstone 7.00 5.31

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 Championship Derby v Coventry Coventry 4.50 3.23
14/01/2011 League 1 Brentford v Wallsall Wallsall 4.70 3.42
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53
14/01/2011 League 1 MK Dons v Carlisle Carlisle 4.52 3.31
14/01/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Tranmere Tranmere 2.82 1.99
14/01/2011 League 2 Accrington v Barnet Barnet 5.00 3.74
14/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Morecambe Morecambe 3.29 2.34
14/01/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Fulham Blackburn 3.02 2.13
14/01/2011 SPL Celtic v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 14.40 12.13
14/01/2011 SPL Motherwell v Inverness Inverness 4.50 3.23

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34
14/01/2011 Championship Derby v Coventry Coventry 4.50 3.23
14/01/2011 League 1 Brentford v Wallsall Wallsall 4.70 3.42
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53
14/01/2011 League 1 MK Dons v Carlisle Carlisle 4.52 3.31
14/01/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Tranmere Tranmere 2.82 1.99
14/01/2011 League 2 Accrington v Barnet Barnet 5.00 3.74
14/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Morecambe Morecambe 3.29 2.34
14/01/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Fulham Blackburn 3.02 2.13
14/01/2011 SPL Motherwell v Inverness Inverness 4.50 3.23

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34 Old Criteria
14/01/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.88 2.01 Old Criteria
14/01/2011 Championship Derby v Coventry Coventry 4.50 3.23 New Criteria
14/01/2011 Championship Hull v Peterborough Hull 1.80 1.33 New Criteria
14/01/2011 League 1 Brentford v Wallsall Wallsall 4.70 3.42 New Criteria
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53 New Criteria
14/01/2011 League 1 Preston v Wycombe Wycombe 4.75 3.53 New Criteria
14/01/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Tranmere Tranmere 2.82 1.99 Old Criteria
14/01/2011 League 2 Accrington v Barnet Barnet 5.00 3.74 Old Criteria
14/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Morecambe Morecambe 3.29 2.34 New Criteria
14/01/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Fulham Blackburn 3.02 2.13 Old Criteria
14/01/2011 SPL Motherwell v Inverness Inverness 4.50 3.23 Old Criteria

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34 Old Criteria
14/01/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.88 2.01 Old Criteria
14/01/2011 Championship Derby v Coventry Coventry 4.50 3.23 New Criteria
14/01/2011 Championship Hull v Peterborough Hull 1.80 1.33 New Criteria
14/01/2011 League 1 Brentford v Wallsall Wallsall 4.70 3.42 New Criteria
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53 New Criteria
14/01/2011 League 1 Preston v Wycombe Wycombe 4.75 3.53 New Criteria
14/01/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Tranmere Tranmere 2.82 1.99 Old Criteria
14/01/2011 League 2 Accrington v Barnet Barnet 5.00 3.74 Old Criteria
14/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Morecambe Morecambe 3.29 2.34 New Criteria
14/01/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Fulham Blackburn 3.02 2.13 Old Criteria
14/01/2011 SPL Motherwell v Inverness Inverness 4.50 3.23 Old Criteria

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
14/01/2011 Championship Brighton v Bristol City Bristol City 3.30 2.34 Old Criteria
14/01/2011 Championship Crystal Palace v Leeds Leeds 2.88 2.01 Old Criteria
14/01/2011 League 1 Brentford v Wallsall Wallsall 4.70 3.42 New Criteria
14/01/2011 League 1 Colchester v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.50 2.53 New Criteria
14/01/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Tranmere Tranmere 2.82 1.99 Old Criteria
14/01/2011 League 2 Accrington v Barnet Barnet 5.00 3.74 Old Criteria
14/01/2011 League 2 Bradford v Morecambe Morecambe 3.29 2.34 New Criteria
14/01/2011 Premiership Blackburn v Fulham Blackburn 3.02 2.13 Old Criteria
14/01/2011 SPL Motherwell v Inverness Inverness 4.50 3.23 Old Criteria

Systems bounce back yet again.....

One common theme that I’ve written about on the blog over the last 18 months has been the fact that I’m personally more comfortable gambling when I’m following a system rather than following my own thoughts.

I know more than most what the pressure is like when you’re going through a tough run and you’re losing money but more importantly, what it is like to be followed by others who are using your advice to try to make money. Quite simply, losing runs can affect your judgement in a way that most people reading this would never appreciate and having been there with the horseracing before, it is something I could never do again.

When I stopped following horseracing at the end of 2009, I could barely recognise what it meant to pick a value selection as my judgement was so badly impacted by previous losers, I’d lost every bit of confidence in myself that I could find value. The fact that the previous 3 months, 6 months and 12 months indicated I had found myself a fairly significant edge no longer mattered as quite simply, once your judgement goes, you start to doubt everything you’re doing and the edge you once had is effectively gone. That’s not to say it will never return again but being honest, I’ve barely looked at horseracing since the day I turned my attention to trying to find an edge with the footie.

Anyway, the reason the above is important is because after Saturday’s wipeout, I wasn’t exactly brimming with confidence when I saw the two selections thrown up for this midweek on so many systems. Of course, the selections have little to do with me (I just press buttons and drag down formulas) but at the end of the day, I’m following many of the systems with my own cash and I lose confidence as much as anyone.

It has been a tough few weeks for the systems (or at least, it feels that way) and seeing both these bets thrown up, I was hardly brimming with confidence. Aways have suddenly embarked on a really bad run on the systems and many of the systems are 5-10 points down on a drawdown. Not a disaster but if you are following multiple systems, the drawdowns soon add up.

Throw in the fact that one of the Aways was in the Bsq Prem and that has been a graveyard for longer priced Aways this season and let’s just say I was expecting to be writing a post today saying that the systems have hit a really bad spell and we all better be strapping ourselves in.

Of course, the systems don’t know they are on a really bad run (I don’t tell them the results! ;) ) and therefore, they just continue throwing up the same bets day in, day out. I know for a fact that if I was picking the selections after the weekend (none of the teams were even close to winning), I’d have been doubting myself just a little. But no, the systems pull out two decent priced Away bets as value.

It’s easier to write this post now that I know both teams won but even before the games started last night, I had a little wry smile to myself. Both teams were punted very heavily pre-match and compared to the odds I backed at, they were much shorter at kick-off. That is effectively what this blog is about. Yeah, it’s good to hit lots of winners and I sometimes get great satisfaction from seeing a big drifter win when I’ve backed it but for the vast majority of the time, the systems are selecting teams at odds which then shorten and in the long-run, over 100s and 1,000s of bets, that gives the systems an edge over the bookmakers. That effectively is the edge I’ve created at this game.

Algorithm One had 2 bets, 2 winners.

Algorithm Two had 2 bets, 2 winners.

Algorithm Three had 2 bets 2 winners.

Established systems made a profit of 17.99pts for H/A and 10.55pts for DNB betting.

New systems made a profit of 26.79pts for H/A and 15.71pts for DNB betting.

If you look back to my previous post, you’ll see that overall, the systems have nearly recouped all the losses from the wipeout on Saturday. Of course, different systems may have won back more than they lost on Saturday and vice versa but I can’t do much about that in the short-term!

Next bets will be posted on Friday night for Saturday’s games.

Tonight's Bets

Below are the bets for tonight. Only two games of interest with Bristol Rovers and Grimsby thrown up as value bets.

Hopefully one of these two will stop the losing streak that has crept up on some of the systems……

The Football Analyst Bets for 10th January

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/01/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge Utd v Grimsby Grimsby 3.20 2.29
10/01/2012 League 2 Hereford v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 3.33 2.36

System 7
None

System 8
None

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/01/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge Utd v Grimsby Grimsby 3.20 2.29
10/01/2012 League 2 Hereford v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 3.33 2.36

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/01/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge Utd v Grimsby Grimsby 3.20 2.29

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/01/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge Utd v Grimsby Grimsby 3.20 2.29
10/01/2012 League 2 Hereford v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 3.33 2.36

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/01/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge Utd v Grimsby Grimsby 3.20 2.29

System 7-21
None

System 7-22
None

System 8-21
None

System 8-22
None

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/01/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge Utd v Grimsby Grimsby 3.20 2.29
10/01/2012 League 2 Hereford v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 3.33 2.36

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/01/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge Utd v Grimsby Grimsby 3.20 2.29

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/01/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge Utd v Grimsby Grimsby 3.20 2.29

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/01/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge Utd v Grimsby Grimsby 3.20 2.29

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/01/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge Utd v Grimsby Grimsby 3.20 2.29
10/01/2012 League 2 Hereford v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 3.33 2.36

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/01/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge Utd v Grimsby Grimsby 3.20 2.29
10/01/2012 League 2 Hereford v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 3.33 2.36

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/01/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge Utd v Grimsby Grimsby 3.20 2.29

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/01/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge Utd v Grimsby Grimsby 3.20 2.29

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10/01/2012 Bsq Prem Cambridge Utd v Grimsby Grimsby 3.20 2.29

Total Wipeout

Well, some of my posts last week were almost prophetic!

I was sort of strapping myself in for a rough spell and as if by magic, the systems suffered a total wipeout this weekend. 7 games, 7 losers. Doesn’t get any more straightforward than that.

Algorithm one had 6 bets, 6 losers. -6pts.

Algorithm two had 4 bets, 4 losers. -4pts.

Algorithm three had 7 bets, 7 losers. -7pts.

It then becomes a case of how good the systems are at missing bets out!

Thankfully, they did an OK job this weekend and it could have been worse I suspect.

Established systems lost 20pts and New systems lost 25pts. Not a disaster.

No point dwelling on this weekend. Not the first time the systems have had a wipeout and won’t be the last time either. Happens once or twice every season.

We’ll move on……..

Tomorrow's Bets

Here's the bets for tomorrow. A quieter day due to the FA Cup but still plenty of interest for the systems.

Good luck.


The Football Analyst Bets for 7th January

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Hayes Hayes 6.90 5.41
07/01/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Forest Green Forest Green 3.60 2.58
07/01/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 4.00 2.89
07/01/2012 League 1 Chesterfield v Exeter Chesterfield 2.25 1.61
07/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Rochdale Rochdale 3.25 2.32
07/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Plymouth Plymouth 3.75 2.73

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Rochdale Rochdale 3.25 2.32

System 8
None

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 League 1 Chesterfield v Exeter Chesterfield 2.25 1.61
07/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Rochdale Rochdale 3.25 2.32
07/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Plymouth Plymouth 3.75 2.73
07/01/2012 League 2 Southend v Port Vale Port Vale 4.33 3.16

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Rochdale Rochdale 3.25 2.32
07/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Plymouth Plymouth 3.75 2.73

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 League 1 Chesterfield v Exeter Chesterfield 2.25 1.61
07/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Rochdale Rochdale 3.25 2.32
07/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Plymouth Plymouth 3.75 2.73

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Rochdale Rochdale 3.25 2.32
07/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Plymouth Plymouth 3.75 2.73

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Rochdale Rochdale 3.25 2.32

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Rochdale Rochdale 3.25 2.32

System 8-21
None

System 8-22
None

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Hayes Hayes 6.90 5.41
07/01/2012 Bsq Prem Mansfield v Forest Green Forest Green 3.60 2.58
07/01/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 4.00 2.89
07/01/2012 League 1 Chesterfield v Exeter Chesterfield 2.25 1.61
07/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Rochdale Rochdale 3.25 2.32
07/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Plymouth Plymouth 3.75 2.73
07/01/2012 League 2 Southend v Port Vale Port Vale 4.33 3.16

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Hayes Hayes 6.90 5.41
07/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Plymouth Plymouth 3.75 2.73

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Plymouth Plymouth 3.75 2.73

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Hayes Hayes 6.90 5.41
07/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Plymouth Plymouth 3.75 2.73

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 League 1 Chesterfield v Exeter Chesterfield 2.25 1.61
07/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Rochdale Rochdale 3.25 2.32
07/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Plymouth Plymouth 3.75 2.73
07/01/2012 League 2 Southend v Port Vale Port Vale 4.33 3.16

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 League 1 Chesterfield v Exeter Chesterfield 2.25 1.61
07/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Rochdale Rochdale 3.25 2.32
07/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Plymouth Plymouth 3.75 2.73

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Rochdale Rochdale 3.25 2.32
07/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Plymouth Plymouth 3.75 2.73

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Rochdale Rochdale 3.25 2.32
07/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Plymouth Plymouth 3.75 2.73

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
07/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Rochdale Rochdale 3.25 2.32
07/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Plymouth Plymouth 3.75 2.73

Last thing before we move on.....

Just a quick post with a few graphs. Tom posted a comment on my last post asking to see a graph of all the results from last season and this season on the same graph.

The graph is shown below.



It’s quite an interesting graph and as usual, it tends to highlight the need for patience with any system that may have a significant edge. I don’t think there’s too much doubt that I have developed a decent edge with my systems (an ROI of 10.6% across 4,147bets) but you can see a spell of over 2,000 bets where no profit is made at all!

Obviously, at the average odds I play and the fact that Aways account for 70% of the overall number of bets, it isn’t unusual for large spells of unprofitability to occur. 2,000 bets is a bit of a one-off though as it incorporates 3 large losing months in the space of 6 months which is fairly unusual for my systems. Feb-11, Apr-11 and Sep-11 were all bad losing months but if I look back on my full data set back to 2001, there isn’t a period where my systems have had 3 losing months in 6 before. Hence, hopefully it won’t happen again!

On the other hand, although no profit was made over 2,000 bets, the drawdown wasn’t too significant as I said yesterday, so although the systems weren’t making profits, they weren’t suffering huge losses either.

There are two other graphs that are worth showing before I stop looking back and start concentrating on the next 5 months……

Here’s the same graph above but looking at DNB (AH0) profitability instead of backing the teams to win outright. As you can see, there is less 120pts less profit but over the piece, it doesn’t have the same level of volatility that the above graph has.



The last graph is a good graph to end this piece of analysis on. This shows the profitability of the systems for all backtested results and live results. There are now 15,705 games on these systems. 4,147 live proofed results and 11,558 backtested results. There are actually 34,000 results if I include the backfitted results (pre 2006) but I don’t use these for any analysis as I’ve discussed before as they don’t mean anything due to the backfitting.



I think this last graph shows how unexpected the spell was where no profits were made for over 2,000 bets. There have been 1,000+ bet spells 3 or 4 times where no profits have been made and therefore, I don’t get too alarmed when I see spells like this occurring. I obviously got alarmed when we had the 3 losing months out of 6 but now that it has happened once, I’m confident that if it happens again, we can all be confident that the systems will bounce back.

Hopefully we don’t need to worry about that happening again for a long time yet………….

The Elephant In The Room.......

The title of this blog post could have easily read ‘the second half of season 2010/11’ but instead, I’ve given it a more appropriate name for the blog!

Any long-term readers will know a fair bit of what happened in the second half of last season and after paying particular attention to the first half of this season and the similarities with the first half of last season in the last post, it seems only right to again highlight what happened in the second half of last season.

Mark Iverson left a comment on the last post asking to see a graph of the second half of the season in May. Now I’ve read Mark’s comment again, I think he’s actually meaning May-12 and doing the same comparison with the second half of this season and last season, but if you read my reply to Mark, you’ll see that I thought he meant a graph of the second half of last season!

Anyway, ignoring my misunderstanding, I think it’s good to look back (for old times sake!) before we look forward. I will of course paste up a graph at the season end which compares the second half of each season (as per Mark’s suggestion).

Now that I’ve looked at this again (which is 7 months after the event), I honestly don’t believe it looks as bad as it felt at the time. Again, this is probably due to the fact that the wounds aren’t quite as raw as they were in February and April but being honest, it’s always hard on a blog to remain totally subjective when you are losing money.

As I’ve mentioned before on the blog a few times, I actually increased my stakes after more than doubling my betting bank in the first half of last season and therefore, I felt the second half of the season harder than most. I say most as I know I was not along in getting slightly carried away after the start last season and many of us had burnt fingers at the end of last season. Of course, the overall results were very good for the first season but when you make all the profits in the first half of the season on a new venture, it’s odds on you will not end up where you hoped to be, come the season end! Increasing stakes seemed like the easiest decision ever after 4 months of amazing profits but it was a foolish thing to do with hindsight.

Anyway, here’s the equivalent graph to the one I showed yesterday but this only shows the second part of last season. I keep calling it the second half but clearly, the season last season ended up being very lopsided due to the number of postponements in November and December, so many more games were played after Christmas than in a normal season.



As you can see, the graph isn’t pretty and it includes one massive drawdown but overall, the lowest point was only -45pts. However, the highest point was actually +75pts as the systems started January in great fashion last season, so it was a drop of 120pts from the peak to the trough. Again, it’s not a disaster based on betting banks or anything but at the time, it felt like the end of the world to me!

Interestingly, Jan-12 has started in OK fashion with Everton and Gateshead winning for me on New Year’s Day but it is too early to know how the month will end up.

Having now decided that the second half of last season wasn’t quite as bad as it looked at the time (felt much worse than that bloody graph!), if we look at the season as a whole, again, it probably looks better than it felt last season. I’ve shown the split between the first part and second part of the season by a line.



When the season ended last season, I was very down about how the season had panned out and as I said a few times on the blog, I was really disappointed with a return of around 9.4% on the systems last season. Many people commented that I was being too critical and that it had been a much better season than I painted it to be. Well, I think 7 months on from the end of last season, they are probably correct!

I can’t change the past and of course, I actually can’t change the future either as the systems will ultimately decide how this season pans out but at the moment, I feel very apprehensive about the second half of the season as you can imagine.

One other thing I had noticed before last season was that this apparent half season split was already evident during the backtesting results. Of course, I couldn’t act on it and I still can’t act on it as the second half of each season is still profitable in its own right but there is clear definition between the first part of each season and the second part of each season.

This table shows this by month and by part of season where Aug-Dec is part one and Jan-May is part two.


You can all draw your own conclusions but the first part of each season is on average 60% better than the second half of each season. That’s a worrying statistic considering we’re now into this stage of the season.....

1st half of this season v 1st half of last season

There is enough analysis on this blog already without me adding to it by having a page for half season reviews!

However, I think this is probably as good a time as any to comment on how the first half of the season has went for the established systems and in particular, how it compares to last season. There have been 1,363 bets on the systems so far this season against a total last season of 2,784, so we could be 49% of the way through the season. As it happens, last season saw 40% more bets in the second half of the season as a result of all the postponements in November and December due to snow, so whether or not we are 49% of the way through the season is debatable but either way, we’re approaching the half way mark soon I suspect!

How has the season went so far? Well, as you can see in the table below, there is a 13.1% ROI for this season on H/A betting and an ROI of 4.7% for DNB betting.


When you compare this season to last season though, nothing else looks too familiar. Last season, H/A and DNB ended up with very similar returns over the season and interestingly, Homes and Aways ended up with very similar returns. This season, H/A is easily outscoring DNB and Aways are much more profitable than Homes!

As those following the blog for a while will remember, the first half of last season was nothing like the second half of the season. Therefore, possibly, we should be comparing the first half of this season to the first of last season? Here’s the results for the systems split into 3 parts. Part One last season which is up until 31st December, Part Two last season which is from 1st January to season end and part Part One this season which is up until Monday.

This is actually much more interesting to analyse.

As you can see now, the first half of this season isn’t too dissimilar to last season now is it? Of course, it’s not as profitable as last season but then again, we had a massive losing month in September this season that we didn’t have last season. This graph backs up this conclusion that this season isn’t too dissimilar to last season.



When you look at the performance of Homes and Aways and DNB v H/A, you can see that in the first half of last season, Aways did much better than Homes and of course, H/A was a much better strategy than DNB. Hence, the first half of this season actually looks very much like the first half of last season. If it wasn’t for September being as bad as it was, then the first half of this season could actually mirror the first half of last season!

I think it’s very interesting that there does appear to be this season split last season and of course, it does raise a question of what will happen in the next few months? Will it follow last season? Will it be different from last season and be profitable in the next few months?

At the end of the day, I don’t know the answers and therefore, we’ll see what happens as the season progresses.

What I would say is that if the systems have as bad a second half of the season as they had last season, then they don’t have as much profits to fall back on as they had last season! Of course, if they have an OK second half of the season, then they’ll get very close to the performance of the systems last season. If they have a good second half of the season, they’ll beat the performance from last season easily.

Success Breeding Complacency?

The title of the posts refers to something that popped into my head when I was writing the monthly review for December. I started off writing the first paragraph and I was pretty downbeat and mentioning the fact that it has been a very quiet month for the systems. I didn’t use the word disappointing in the paragraph but I was definitely thinking to myself as I was writing the opening paragraph that it had been a disappointing month for the systems.

Of course, as you all know, I’ve had 3 very disappointing months within my 13 months of live results and these disappointing months cost the established systems 62pts in Feb-11, 94pts in Apr-11 and recently, 86pts in Sep-11. Therefore, there is something not quite right with my thinking when the systems make a profit of 26.6pts from 295 bets (ROI of a measly 9%) and I’m classing it as a disappointing month.

What causes this? It can only be one thing I guess……. a loss of perspective from the writer of this blog!

If someone had offered me a 9% return at the start of the month for the established systems, would I have accepted it or got insulted by the mere suggestion that the profit in the month was only going to be 9%?

I think this is the first time in a while that I’ve maybe let my personal feelings get in the way of being as unbiased as I can be about tracking the systems. My own P&L in the month for the established systems was much in line with the overall return (even though I back DNB away and outright homes) and yet, I ‘m feeling down this month.

Why?

Well, my second portfolio using a bunch of the newer systems struggled badly in December and being honest, so far this season, it has been a waste of my time. A waste of time tracking the systems, a waste of time placing the bets, a waste of time calculating the profit (or lack of it!) and for someone like me, time is my most precious asset and yet, so much of it so far this season has been spent following rubbish systems with smaller stakes for next to no return.

The ROI on the second portfolio is only 2.8% this season after December. Of course, with smaller stakes and the fact these systems are unproven, it’s meant to be one step up from paper trading but being honest, I’ve never paper trialled a betting system in my life. I’m just not cut out for it and if I’m going to spend endless hours finding bets, updating results, tracking systems, then what’s another hour here or there to place the bets using small stakes (that being honest, I won’t miss as the other portfolio will pay for any losses many times over!).

However, I think I need to stand back for a moment. A 2.8% ROI may not be very good but considering it is over in excess of 650 system bets, it’s still a profit of 20pts. 20pts profit at low stakes may not mean much to me and definitely doesn’t cover my time of doing the work on these newer systems but what was I expecting to achieve this season?

I think that’s the crux of what has been bothering me over the few weeks. I expected these new systems to be very successful and be better than my systems from last season. Why did I think this? Well, because I’d built two algorithms 18 months ago, I expected the 3rd algorithm to be better and I even expected the Similar Games Model to be better than what I’d built previously!

I think I need to appreciate the systems I already have more and stop worrying about trying to find something that’s better than what I already have. Of course, for someone like me, searching for a better edge than the one I already have is what keeps me going but I can’t let it affect my judgement on the edge I already have.

The title of the post says it all really. Maybe I should be celebrating the success I’ve had so far this season with my established systems rather than worrying about the lack of success with the newer systems…….

Anyway, just a few thoughts from me which I thought I’d share. The monthly review for December is in the usual place. You can find it by scrolling down to the bottom of this page.


http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/p/201112-monthly-results.html

New Year Period Results Update

Hard to know where to start with the results update as there are a lot of system bets and it’s hard enough to track what goes on with this blog, never mind trying to interpret my results posts!

I’ll deal with each day at a time and take it from there for the overall results for the established systems and the new systems. My next piece of work is to write a monthly review for December and the review will pick up what has happened for each system. So, I’ll try to keep this post quite high level.

30/12/11

Carlisle were the big bet on both algorithms here. At odds of 4/1 against Huddersfield, it would have been a massive win for the systems but although they took the lead, the game finished 1-1.

Algorithm one had 2 bets, one winner and one draw. Algorithm two had 1 bet and 1 draw. Algorithm three had bets, one winner, one draw and one loser.

The established systems lost 3.75pts for H/A betting and made a profit of 0.6pts profit for DNB betting.

The new systems lost 8.75pts for H/A betting and a loss of 0.4pts for DNB betting.

31/12/11

Another frustrating day for the systems. Wigan and Rochdale were the two big away bets and both games finished in draws. The two big home games were Bristol Rovers (got hammered from Crewe!) and Colchester (easily beat Exeter). Overall, due to the away draws again, it was a tough day for H/A betting.

Algorithm one had 9 bets, 3 winners, 3 draws and 3 losers. Algorithm two had 7 bets, 2 winners, 3 draws and 2 losers. Algorithm three had 5 bets, 1 winner, 1 draw and 3 losers.

The established systems made a 13.27pts loss for H/A betting and a loss of 4.25pts for DNB.

The new systems made a loss of 14.35pts for H/A betting and a loss of 8.93pts for DNB.

Again, you can see the impact of the draws here with DNB betting outperforming H/A betting again.

01/01/12

A massive day for the systems with two very strong away bets appearing on multiple systems. Everton and Gateshead were the teams and thankfully, although both games looked like finished 0-0 for most of the game, both the bets managed to score late goals to sneak a win.

Algorithm one had 2 bets, 2 winners. Algorithm two had 2 bets, 2 winners. Algorithm three had 1 bets, 1 winner.

The established systems made a profit of 33.65pts for H/A betting and a profit of 18.30pts for DNB betting.

The new systems made a profit of 20.8pts for H/A betting and a profit of 11.24pts for DNB betting.

A great day to start 2012 and both sets of systems off to a flyer.

02/01/12

A very busy day with a whole host of bets on most systems!

Algorithm one had 19 bets. There were only 5 winners along with 4 draws and 10 losers. Thankfully, the winners were at decent odds, so it isn’t quite as bad as it looks!

Algorithm two had 15 bets, 5 winners, 2 draws and 8 losers. Again, it looks worse than it is as the winners were decent odds.

Algorithm three had 16 bets, 6 winners and 3 draws and 7 losers.

The strike rate was very low on each algorithm but as you’ll see by the returns, the average odds saved the day a little.

The established systems made a loss of 1.65pts for H/A betting and a loss of 13.78pts for DNB. Not great but when you think about the bets the systems were working with, a small loss seems like a good achievement!

The new systems did even better. They managed to make a profit of 12.85pts for H/A betting and a loss of 2.2pts for DNB betting.

Overall Update over the New Year Period (28th Dec to 2nd Jan)

The established systems made a profit of 14.98pts for H/A betting from 132 games. An ROI of 11.3%.

The combined systems (6-21 to 8-22) made a profit of 8.30pts for H/A betting from 52 bets. An ROI of 16.0%.

The single systems (6,7,8,21,22) made a profit of 6.68pts for H/A betting from 80 bets. An ROI of 8.4%.

The new systems made a profit of 10.55pts for H/A betting from 133 games. An ROI of 7.93%.

The systems relating to the DNB ratings (31,32,33,6-32,21-31,6-21-31) made a profit of 12.55pts for H/A betting from 88 games. An ROI of 14.3%.

The systems built on the SGM methodology (TOX, STOY and STOZ) made a loss of 2pts from 45 games. An ROI of -4.4%.

The reason for posting the above updates for each set of systems is because I’m amazed how close the results over the New Year Period mirror the overall results for my systems since they went live! Here’s the full record of live results for each set of systems to 2nd January:

Established Systems – 4,147 bets, a profit of 441.2pts and an ROI of 10.6%.

Combined Systems – 1,515 bets, a profit of 256.8pts and an ROI of 17.0%.

Single Systems – 2,632 bets, a profit of 184.4pts and an ROI of 7.0%.

New Systems – 1,249 bets, a profit of 35.7pts and an ROI of 2.90%.

DNB systems – 1,014 bets, a profit of 51.8pts and an ROI of 5.10%.

SGM systems – 235 bets, a loss of 16.1pts and an ROI of -6.80%.

I could write another long post about these results but you can all draw your own conclusions. As I said the other day on here, the new systems are now under pressure as the live results haven’t matched the backtested results so far this season and compared to my other systems which have been going since last season, there is clear daylight between them.

Obviously, we’re only half way through the season, so a long way to go and it won’t take too much for the new systems to turn this around I hope. They need to start improving soon though!

Anyway, that will do for this update. My next post will be the monthly review and I’ll post it in the usual place and update the blog so you know it’s done.

Today's Bets

I can't recall too many busier days this season if I'm honest. The month started off like a dream yesterday with Everton and Gateshead winning with late goals but today is likely to be the defining day for this month I suspect.

Good luck if you are following.


The Football Analyst Bets for 2nd January

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94
02/01/2012 Championship Cardiff v Reading Reading 3.50 2.47
02/01/2012 Championship Ipswich v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.30 2.35
02/01/2012 Championship Leeds v Burnley Burnley 3.50 2.48
02/01/2012 Championship Portsmouth v Watford Watford 3.75 2.65
02/01/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Sheff Utd Carlisle 2.80 1.98
02/01/2012 League 1 Charlton v Brentford Brentford 5.29 3.96
02/01/2012 League 1 Chesterfield v Oldham Chesterfield 2.60 1.84
02/01/2012 League 1 Exeter v Yeovil Yeovil 3.72 2.64
02/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.25 2.34
02/01/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Colchester Colchester 6.00 4.57
02/01/2012 League 1 Rochdale v Preston Rochdale 2.63 1.89
02/01/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54
02/01/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 5.00 3.67
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21
02/01/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Aldershot Aldershot 4.50 3.31
02/01/2012 League 2 Plymouth v Torquay Plymouth 2.88 2.04
02/01/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Northampton Northampton 6.50 4.97
02/01/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v St Mirren St Mirren 3.50 2.47

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94
02/01/2012 League 1 Charlton v Brentford Brentford 5.29 3.96
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21
02/01/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Aldershot Aldershot 4.50 3.31
02/01/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v St Mirren St Mirren 3.50 2.47

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94
02/01/2012 Championship Cardiff v Reading Reading 3.50 2.47
02/01/2012 Championship Ipswich v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.30 2.35
02/01/2012 Championship Leeds v Burnley Burnley 3.50 2.48
02/01/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Sheff Utd Carlisle 2.80 1.98
02/01/2012 League 1 Charlton v Brentford Brentford 5.29 3.96
02/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.25 2.34
02/01/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Colchester Colchester 6.00 4.57
02/01/2012 League 1 Rochdale v Preston Rochdale 2.63 1.89
02/01/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54
02/01/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 5.00 3.67
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21
02/01/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Aldershot Aldershot 4.50 3.31
02/01/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Northampton Northampton 6.50 4.97
02/01/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v St Mirren St Mirren 3.50 2.47

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94
02/01/2012 Championship Ipswich v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.30 2.35
02/01/2012 Championship Leeds v Burnley Burnley 3.50 2.48
02/01/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94
02/01/2012 Championship Cardiff v Reading Reading 3.50 2.47
02/01/2012 Championship Ipswich v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.30 2.35
02/01/2012 Championship Leeds v Burnley Burnley 3.50 2.48
02/01/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Sheff Utd Carlisle 2.80 1.98
02/01/2012 League 1 Charlton v Brentford Brentford 5.29 3.96
02/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.25 2.34
02/01/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Colchester Colchester 6.00 4.57
02/01/2012 League 1 Rochdale v Preston Rochdale 2.63 1.89
02/01/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54
02/01/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 5.00 3.67
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21
02/01/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Aldershot Aldershot 4.50 3.31
02/01/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Northampton Northampton 6.50 4.97
02/01/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v St Mirren St Mirren 3.50 2.47

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94
02/01/2012 Championship Ipswich v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.30 2.35
02/01/2012 Championship Leeds v Burnley Burnley 3.50 2.48
02/01/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94
02/01/2012 League 1 Charlton v Brentford Brentford 5.29 3.96
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21
02/01/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Aldershot Aldershot 4.50 3.31
02/01/2012 SPL Kilmarnock v St Mirren St Mirren 3.50 2.47

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94
02/01/2012 Championship Hull v Derby Derby 5.00 3.64
02/01/2012 Championship Ipswich v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.30 2.35
02/01/2012 Championship Leeds v Burnley Burnley 3.50 2.48
02/01/2012 Championship Portsmouth v Watford Watford 3.75 2.65
02/01/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Sheff Utd Carlisle 2.80 1.98
02/01/2012 League 1 Charlton v Brentford Brentford 5.29 3.96
02/01/2012 League 1 Exeter v Yeovil Yeovil 3.72 2.64
02/01/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Colchester Colchester 6.00 4.57
02/01/2012 League 1 Rochdale v Preston Rochdale 2.63 1.89
02/01/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54
02/01/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 5.00 3.67
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21
02/01/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Aldershot Aldershot 4.50 3.31
02/01/2012 League 2 Port Vale v Cheltenham Cheltenham 3.00 2.14
02/01/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Northampton Northampton 6.50 4.97

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94
02/01/2012 Championship Ipswich v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.30 2.35
02/01/2012 Championship Leeds v Burnley Burnley 3.50 2.48
02/01/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21
02/01/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Aldershot Aldershot 4.50 3.31

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Ipswich v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.30 2.35
02/01/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94
02/01/2012 Championship Ipswich v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.30 2.35
02/01/2012 Championship Leeds v Burnley Burnley 3.50 2.48
02/01/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21
02/01/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Aldershot Aldershot 4.50 3.31

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94
02/01/2012 Championship Ipswich v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.30 2.35
02/01/2012 Championship Leeds v Burnley Burnley 3.50 2.48
02/01/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Sheff Utd Carlisle 2.80 1.98
02/01/2012 League 1 Charlton v Brentford Brentford 5.29 3.96
02/01/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Colchester Colchester 6.00 4.57
02/01/2012 League 1 Rochdale v Preston Rochdale 2.63 1.89
02/01/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54
02/01/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 5.00 3.67
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21
02/01/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Aldershot Aldershot 4.50 3.31
02/01/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Northampton Northampton 6.50 4.97

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94
02/01/2012 Championship Ipswich v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.30 2.35
02/01/2012 Championship Leeds v Burnley Burnley 3.50 2.48
02/01/2012 League 1 Carlisle v Sheff Utd Carlisle 2.80 1.98
02/01/2012 League 1 Charlton v Brentford Brentford 5.29 3.96
02/01/2012 League 1 MK Dons v Colchester Colchester 6.00 4.57
02/01/2012 League 1 Rochdale v Preston Rochdale 2.63 1.89
02/01/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54
02/01/2012 League 1 Stevenage v Leyton Orient Leyton Orient 5.00 3.67
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21
02/01/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Aldershot Aldershot 4.50 3.31
02/01/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Northampton Northampton 6.50 4.97

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94 Old Criteria
02/01/2012 League 1 Charlton v Brentford Brentford 5.29 3.96 Old Criteria
02/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.25 2.34 Old Criteria
02/01/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54 Old Criteria
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21 Old Criteria
02/01/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Aldershot Aldershot 4.50 3.31 New Criteria
02/01/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Northampton Northampton 6.50 4.97 New Criteria

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94 Old Criteria
02/01/2012 League 1 Charlton v Brentford Brentford 5.29 3.96 Old Criteria
02/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.25 2.34 Old Criteria
02/01/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54 Old Criteria
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21 Old Criteria
02/01/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Aldershot Aldershot 4.50 3.31 New Criteria
02/01/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Northampton Northampton 6.50 4.97 New Criteria

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
02/01/2012 Championship Blackpool v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2.75 1.94 Old Criteria
02/01/2012 League 1 Charlton v Brentford Brentford 5.29 3.96 Old Criteria
02/01/2012 League 1 Hartlepool v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 3.25 2.34 Old Criteria
02/01/2012 League 1 Sheff Wed v Tranmere Tranmere 6.00 4.54 Old Criteria
02/01/2012 League 2 Crewe v Morecambe Morecambe 3.10 2.21 Old Criteria
02/01/2012 League 2 Gillingham v Aldershot Aldershot 4.50 3.31 New Criteria
02/01/2012 League 2 Shrewsbury v Northampton Northampton 6.50 4.97 New Criteria