Monday, 2 July 2012

Busy, busy, busy....

Apologies for the lack of updates on the blog in the past week. When I’m developing a new set of ratings and new set of systems, it’s sometimes easier to just not think about anything else and spend all my free time working on the ratings and systems.  I was planning on sharing info as I was going through the process but every time you reach the next milestone, it’s easier to log off and then come back the next evening and then, you can’t be bothered writing blog posts on what you did the previous evening as the time is better spent on reaching the next milestone.

Anyway, I’ve reached the stage now that the ratings are built and the new systems have been developed.  I’m just pulling together the systems into a results spreadsheet in the format I use to record results and once this is done, I’ll just need to cross refer the systems with systems 31-33 and I’ll have all 8 new systems created.

The new systems are systems 41 and 42.  As mentioned before, these systems are built by trying to maximise the returns from AH0 betting, rather than outright betting.  This makes them the equivalent systems of systems 31-33.  I hope that by cross referring both sets of ratings, I end up with another powerful set of combined systems.  If I’m honest, I’ve not even looked at the returns on any of the systems yet (41 or 42) although I do know the returns on the 10 preparation systems were a little disappointing at first glance.

I think my issue is that having come from building the European ratings and systems which produced phenomenal results, I’ve now moved back to the UK leagues and of course, I’m looking at AH0 returns rather than outright returns. Hence, the returns are around the 10% mark whereas the Euro systems seemed to have returns around the 30%+ mark, so I think it’s easy to get distracted by this and think the systems aren’t as good. 

In a way, these new DNB ratings carry much less risk as I’ve already proven I can build ratings on the UK leagues but more importantly, systems 31-33 showed last season that I can build systems looking at DNB returns rather than outright returns. Hence, although I don’t expect the results to be anywhere near as flashy as the Euro systems (they won’t be!), I wouldn’t be totally dismissive of them.

Once I have the results in a spreadsheet and can view them, I don’t intend on spending too much time on the blog analysing the systems.  These systems are going to be pretty low down the pecking order of the TFA systems next season and therefore, I want to get the systems created, get the results released, set targets for next season and then forget about them until I start seeing some live results.

I’m sure a few subscribers who like playing with data will be happy to hear that I’ll release the results of these systems along with the other historical results soon, so although I won’t be analysing the systems in depth, nothing to stop anyone else from doing so. 

After that, I just need to do a bit of tidying up on the website, getting the results shared on there for all systems, updating the performance summary table and basically drawing a line under all system building this Summer.  Quite soon then, we’ll have all 41 systems built and ready for next season.

I’ll then turn my attention to helping current subscribers decide on plans for next season.  I’ll spend around 6 weeks doing that and then I’ll decide what I’m going to be doing next season myself and spend time setting up processes in order for me to get these bets out in a timely and accurate manner next season.  Not looking forward to this part as it takes a lot of planning!

So, keep reading the blog and I should have the new systems ready in a few days and I’ll share more information about them then.

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