Saturday, 31 December 2011

TPI Returns......

The title may not mean much to some readers unless you were reading my blog from early 2011 but The Portfolio Investor has returned from his sabbatical and is writing a new blog from the start of next year.

Here’s a link to his blog and as always, Rowan’s musings should be an interesting read.

http://apuntersyear.blogspot.com/

Rowan and I go back a good couple of years now and he’s been an avid supporter of my exploits with the football systems since I started this project. He was one of the first guys to comment on the first ever post I put up in the TFA forum saying I was looking to build some football systems at the end of 2009. I met up with Rowan at Aintree in April 2010 and we discussed the football systems and where I wanted to go (I doubt he’ll remember this!) and again, he was very supportive and gave me great encouragement.

When I started out with my systems at the start of last season, Rowan did his homework and followed system 8 and then switched to system 8-22 and this season, he’s been following system 7-22. He was very supportive of the systems last season through his blog even though things went rapidly downhill on system 8-22 in the second half of last season but he never once had a bad word to say about the systems. A true gent. Hopefully he’s been repaid for his faith in the systems this season via the results on system 7-22 so far this season. :)

Anyway, I’m sure the blog will be worth reading and definitely one to bookmark.

The other blog I’ve added is one written by Eddie (Soccerdude) and the link for this one is:

http://footytradingposts.blogspot.com/

I’ve only read a dozen posts or so but it looks like an entertaining read and should be worth following as we move into next year.

I’d like to wish you all a Happy New Year and I’ll get on with finding the footie bets for Monday now!

Friday, 30 December 2011

And the updated bets.....

These systems have only had 187 between them so far this season. 24 bets this weekend!

I wouldn't like to say it's a last roll of the dice for these systems over the next 5 months but deep down (so deep down, even I'm struggling to believe it!), I think these systems may be my best systems. Of course, this season, they are so far behind my other systems, the referee would stop the contest but I'm not wrong too often about my footie system building (well, I can think of a few times!) but anyway, worth tracking these bets to see how they do. I don't expect miracles but a return to profitability would be a good start for the systems!

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02 New Criteria
31/12/2011 Championship Birmingham v Blackpool Birmingham 2.00 1.45 New Criteria
31/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Cardiff Notts Forest 2.75 1.92 New Criteria
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35 New Criteria
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73 Old Criteria
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33 New Criteria
31/12/2011 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Crewe Bristol Rovers 2.13 1.54 New Criteria
31/12/2011 Premiership Stoke v Wigan Wigan 5.50 4.10 New Criteria
01/01/2012 Premiership West Brom v Everton Everton 2.85 2.01 New Criteria

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02 New Criteria
31/12/2011 Championship Birmingham v Blackpool Birmingham 2.00 1.45 New Criteria
31/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Cardiff Notts Forest 2.75 1.92 New Criteria
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35 New Criteria
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73 Old Criteria
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33 New Criteria
31/12/2011 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Crewe Bristol Rovers 2.13 1.54 New Criteria
31/12/2011 Premiership Stoke v Wigan Wigan 5.50 4.10 New Criteria
01/01/2012 Premiership West Brom v Everton Everton 2.85 2.01 New Criteria

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02 New Criteria
31/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Cardiff Notts Forest 2.75 1.92 New Criteria
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35 New Criteria
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73 Old Criteria
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33 New Criteria
31/12/2011 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Crewe Bristol Rovers 2.13 1.54 New Criteria

A change to TOX, STOY and STOZ (Again!)

Right, this contradicts my last post a little on the blog about struggling for time but I’m going to loosen the criteria on TOX, STOY and STOZ this season from now. I was really into the idea of having very selective systems built on a different method with a high ROI this season but so far, it just hasn’t worked at all and therefore, I can either sit back and watch these systems struggle or do something about it.

Of course, it invalidates the historical results again (second time I’ve tweaked these systems this season as I added more Aways before) and this time, I’m definitely not updating the historical results but we can worry about the past when we get to the summer. At the moment, these systems are effectively dead systems as I’m not continuing with systems like this rubbish next season, so I’ll change the criteria to let more bets onto the systems now and see what happens.

Will it improve profitability? Not a clue but considering the Aways are -30% this season on these systems and +20% on my established systems, it can’t make things any worse I suspect!

If people are following one of these 3 systems, I’d take things really easy for a few weeks. I don’t know how many bets to expect going forward now, so just take things slowly for the timebeing. Reduce stakes. If you aren’t interested in the new bets, I’ll highlight the new bets clearly on these systems so you can still follow the old method! Seems a bit mad to have 2 types of bets within a system but I don’t want any more bloody systems to track and the methodology is the same, it’s just the criteria is tweaked. I could have done it without telling anyone but you’d have got suspicious by the number of bets going through the roof!

Anyway, I hope this breathes some life into these systems again. Deep down, I still believe these may be the best systems I have, they just have a funny way of showing it. Been saying that for 4 months and they haven’t been in profit once yet! :(

I’ll paste up the additional weekend bets in a bit.

Weekend Bets (including tonight)

As I mentioned on my last results post, it is an important weekend for me. I track my results on a monthly basis (I know it doesn’t mean much but you need to have cut-offs somewhere!) and this month is in danger of being a losing month. It’s actually not quite as bad as I thought when I looked last night at the monthly totals (got a few pts to play with) but it would be massively disappointing to have a losing month again this season so soon after September. September was followed by two exceptional months and December started well but the last 3 weeks have been very tough. I can’t recall having a disaster of a day in December (touch wood!) but it has been small losses most days with the odd winning day and overall, it has been a hard month.

I touched on it when replying to a comment in my last post but I’m starting to feel a little run down with the footie. I sometimes forget during the Summer months when I’m building new algorithms and new systems that I need to keep these algorithms updated, find the system bets, place the bets and monitor the results and at times like this, it is very hard.

I read back some of my posts from this time last year and the comment on the 27th of December last year read “Finding it really difficult to keep everything up to date and get my bets on as well as keep the blog up to date but just about managing it”. 12 months on, many more systems on the go, another algorithm on the go, a SGM on the go with 3 systems and I can sort of understand why I’m feeling absolutely drained at the moment.

I’m starting to wonder whether this is sustainable in the short-term, never mind the long-term. When things are going really well, it’s a great buzz doing all of this but when things are going through a sticky patch, it’s really tough on me emotionally and mentally updating the ratings and doing everything else that comes with it. Interestingly, I think it doesn’t help having weeks of break-even or thereabout like I’ve had recently as it feels a waste of time. At least when I’m winning or losing, it means something to me but at the moment, it all feels very tough and not enjoyable at all.

I also need to start thinking about next season and what the plans are and I honestly don’t know where I’ll find the energy to launch a website, never mind try to find myself some subscribers.

I’m hoping things go well this weekend, I have another winning month for the systems and then I can look forward to the second half of the season, starting with the New Year’s Day card.

Anyway, below are the bets for this weekend. A few games are taking place tonight including Carlisle who have another tough away game again. A little annoyed they appear on so many systems as I can’t honestly see them winning after losing a 3-2 lead at Preston last time in the dying seconds (must be draining for them too as well as me!) but we’ll see what happens.

Be back on Monday morning with the bets for Monday and the midweek fixtures. I won’t be updating the weekend results until next week and I’ll need to do a monthly review also. There is no let up………

The Football Analyst Bets for 30th December to 1st January

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02
31/12/2011 Championship Birmingham v Blackpool Birmingham 2.00 1.45
31/12/2011 Championship Coventry v Brighton Coventry 2.78 1.94
31/12/2011 Championship Millwall v Crystal Palace Millwall 2.15 1.52
31/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Cardiff Notts Forest 2.75 1.92
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73
30/12/2011 League 1 Tranmere v Bury Tranmere 2.25 1.60
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33
31/12/2011 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Crewe Bristol Rovers 2.13 1.54
31/12/2011 Premiership Bolton v Wolves Bolton 2.25 1.60
31/12/2011 Premiership Stoke v Wigan Wigan 5.50 4.10
01/01/2012 Premiership West Brom v Everton Everton 2.85 2.01

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33
31/12/2011 Premiership Stoke v Wigan Wigan 5.50 4.10
01/01/2012 Premiership West Brom v Everton Everton 2.85 2.01

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33
01/01/2012 Premiership West Brom v Everton Everton 2.85 2.01

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02
31/12/2011 Championship Birmingham v Blackpool Birmingham 2.00 1.45
31/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Cardiff Notts Forest 2.75 1.92
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33
31/12/2011 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Crewe Bristol Rovers 2.13 1.54
31/12/2011 Premiership Bolton v Wolves Bolton 2.25 1.60
31/12/2011 Premiership Stoke v Wigan Wigan 5.50 4.10
01/01/2012 Premiership West Brom v Everton Everton 2.85 2.01

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
31/12/2011 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Crewe Bristol Rovers 2.13 1.54
01/01/2012 Premiership West Brom v Everton Everton 2.85 2.01

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02
31/12/2011 Championship Birmingham v Blackpool Birmingham 2.00 1.45
31/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Cardiff Notts Forest 2.75 1.92
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33
31/12/2011 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Crewe Bristol Rovers 2.13 1.54
31/12/2011 Premiership Bolton v Wolves Bolton 2.25 1.60
31/12/2011 Premiership Stoke v Wigan Wigan 5.50 4.10
01/01/2012 Premiership West Brom v Everton Everton 2.85 2.01

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
31/12/2011 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Crewe Bristol Rovers 2.13 1.54
01/01/2012 Premiership West Brom v Everton Everton 2.85 2.01

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33
31/12/2011 Premiership Stoke v Wigan Wigan 5.50 4.10
01/01/2012 Premiership West Brom v Everton Everton 2.85 2.01

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Premiership West Brom v Everton Everton 2.85 2.01

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33
01/01/2012 Premiership West Brom v Everton Everton 2.85 2.01

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Premiership West Brom v Everton Everton 2.85 2.01

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02
31/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Cardiff Notts Forest 2.75 1.92
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73
30/12/2011 League 1 Tranmere v Bury Tranmere 2.25 1.60
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33
30/12/2011 League 2 Cheltenham v Rotherham Rotherham 3.75 2.71
31/12/2011 League 2 Northampton v Swindon Northampton 4.43 3.20
31/12/2011 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Crewe Bristol Rovers 2.13 1.54

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02
31/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Cardiff Notts Forest 2.75 1.92
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33
31/12/2011 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Crewe Bristol Rovers 2.13 1.54

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
01/01/2012 Bsq Prem Darlington v Gateshead Gateshead 2.90 2.02
31/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Cardiff Notts Forest 2.75 1.92
31/12/2011 League 1 Colchester v Exeter Colchester 1.85 1.35
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73
31/12/2011 League 1 Walsall v Rochdale Rochdale 3.30 2.33
31/12/2011 League 2 Bristol Rovers v Crewe Bristol Rovers 2.13 1.54

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
30/12/2011 League 1 Huddersfield v Carlisle Carlisle 5.00 3.73

Thursday, 29 December 2011

Festive Results Update

This post will bring the results up to date on the blog as of today. The last results post was exactly one week ago on 22nd December, so this post will cover all games from the 24th December to 28th December.

There has been a lot of games played in this time but ultimately, in terms of P&L, not a lot has changed if I’m honest. Any gains have been given back and things have remained remarkably stable over the last week. As always, there is the usual hard luck story of a late goal going against the systems and a really sore one at that if I’m honest but I’ll touch on it below.

I’ll deal with the established systems first. You can see the breakdown by day and system if you click on the picture but I don’t want to discuss the results in too much detail as the monthly results will deal with how each system has performed and I’m writing that next week, so I’ll stick with the overall results in this post although I’ll no doubt touch on some systems!

Across the period I’m reviewing, a profit has been made of 4.70pts for H/A betting and a profit of 0.96pts for DNB betting for the established systems. When you consider that this covers 80 bets, it’s pretty unusual for my systems to achieve anything like a break-even result over such a large sample of bets. It’s usually always a large profit or a large loss!

Looking at the combined systems only, then a profit of 1.9pts for H/A betting (0.44pts for DNB) was achieved across 33 bets. Again, a very similar result to the overall sample.

Overall, I can’t be too concerned and although this month has proven much more difficult than the preceding two months, I only need to look at some other services/blogs to see how difficult it has been in December to make a profit. With a full set of fixtures to come on Saturday, the month remains in the balance for the established systems as they seek to achieve a profit for the 10th month out of 13.

The same can’t be said for the new systems.

Across the period, a loss of 3.05pts for H/A betting and a loss of 9.90pts for DNB betting. This is from a sample of 64 games, so it is disappointing. As I touched on previously, there is now a clear divergence between the established systems and the new systems with the consensus being that the new systems aren’t as good as the established systems. That’s not to say that they aren’t profitable or won’t be profitable in the future but why would I (or anyone?) want to follow these new systems when they aren’t as good as my other systems. They may be better than most other football systems on the market but they are now starting to look exposed compared to my other systems which have a longer proofing period too.

I should probably split the new systems down into the 3rd algorithm (systems involving 31-33) and the SGM systems. As you will know, the SGM systems have really struggled this season (never been in profit!). The SGM systems made a profit of 4.35pts from 15 bets whereas the other systems made a loss of 7.4pts from 49 games.

As discussed previously, the only shining light on the SGM systems have been the Home bets. This trend is getting even stronger now if I’m honest. The SGM Homes have an ROI of 31% on Homes this season across 70 bets (small sample admittedly). The aways have an ROI of -30% across 120 bets!

When I look at all my systems and the performance of Homes this season, nothing can match the SGM Home bets. Hence, these systems are able to filter out the very best Home bets that all my systems have. Hence, although it may seem like I am wasting my time with these SGM systems this season, there is a glimmer of light at the end of the tunnel concerning the Home bets. May help us next season.

Overall, it has been a disappointing month for the new system bets and they do face a losing month. That will be their 2nd losing month in 4 months this season and when you consider that the established systems have only had 3 losing months in 12 months, you can see that the new systems don’t appear to be as strong as the other systems. Of course, Saturday could change that and the New systems may well turn the month around but as of this moment, I think the new systems are under pressure to start improving or they won’t be added to my established systems portfolio next season.

I can’t go without mentioning how different the results above would have been if Carlisle had held on against Preston. Carlisle appeared on 17 systems at odds of 3.2, so if they had won, it was a swing of 54.4pts. They were 3-2 up and conceded a goal in the 92nd minute of the game to draw the game 3-3. Change this result and I expect this post would have read a lot differently but as always, that’s what happens and it is out with my control. Thankfully, things like don’t annoy the systems as much as it annoys me!

I’ll be back tomorrow morning with a post for the weekend bets. I’ll also need a post first thing on Monday morning for the bets on Monday.



Tuesday, 27 December 2011

Midweek Bets

Here's the bets for midweek.

I'll update results on Thursday after all these games take place. Hard to keep on top of things at the moment.....


The Football Analyst Bets for 27/28th December

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/12/2011 SPL Aberdeen v Hearts Hearts 2.69 1.88
28/12/2011 SPL Celtic v Rangers Celtic 2.00 1.42
28/12/2011 SPL Hibernian v Inverness Inverness 3.15 2.22
28/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dunfermline Dunfermline 7.50 5.81

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/12/2011 SPL Celtic v Rangers Celtic 2.00 1.42

System 8
None

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/12/2012 SPL Celtic v Rangers Celtic 2.00 1.42
28/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dunfermline Dunfermline 7.50 5.81

System 22
None

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/12/2012 SPL Celtic v Rangers Celtic 2.00 1.42
28/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dunfermline Dunfermline 7.50 5.81

System 6-22
None

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/12/2011 SPL Celtic v Rangers Celtic 2.00 1.42

System 7-22
None

System 8-21
None

System 8-22
None

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dunfermline Dunfermline 7.50 5.81

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dunfermline Dunfermline 7.50 5.81

System 33
None

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dunfermline Dunfermline 7.50 5.81

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dunfermline Dunfermline 7.50 5.81

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dunfermline Dunfermline 7.50 5.81

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dunfermline Dunfermline 7.50 5.81
27/12/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Notts County Notts County 5.00 3.68

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dunfermline Dunfermline 7.50 5.81
27/12/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Notts County Notts County 5.00 3.68

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
28/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v Dunfermline Dunfermline 7.50 5.81
27/12/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Notts County Notts County 5.00 3.68

Friday, 23 December 2011

Weekend Bets

Below are the bets for Saturday and early next week.

Not sure how often this happens but for the second game running, Burnley are a 20 system bet! Considering you only get somewhere between 10-15 a season, to get the same team twice running is slightly unusual! Now I’ve mentioned them, they are sure to lose and it will be the last time I ever highlight one of these on the blog before the game takes place!

Reading, Carlisle, Hearts, Wycombe, Forest Green and Northampton are all massive bets this weekend. Thrown in Notts County next Tuesday too as a massive one and this weekend will make or break this month. There is currently only a small profit on each system this month overall (give or take a system here and there), so it will either be a big profit or a big loss after this set of fixtures. After this, the fixtures come thick and fast with another set next weekend before the end of the month, so there will be more games in the final two weeks of the month for the systems than we’ve had so far to date this month.

Fingers crossed for a good weekend.

I’d also like to wish all my readers a Merry Christmas. You can all think of me on Boxing day when I start my work at 7pm to find the bets for the midweek fixtures (won’t take too long mind you as it’s only the SPL) but then again, I also need to work on New Year’s Eve for the bets for the next day to be released on New Year’s Day and that will be a full fixture card!

Good luck over the Festive period.

Graeme

The Football Analyst Bets for 24th-27th December

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Braintree Braintree 4.57 3.36
26/12/2011 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Hayes Hayes 3.82 2.82
26/12/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Forest Green Forest Green 3.50 2.55
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Peterborough Notts Forest 2.05 1.49
26/12/2011 Championship Reading v Brighton Reading 1.80 1.31
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33
27/12/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Notts County Notts County 5.00 3.68
26/12/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Exeter Wycombe 2.45 1.77
26/12/2011 League 2 Northampton v Burton Northampton 2.70 1.94
26/12/2011 Premiership Stoke v Aston Villa Aston Villa 4.33 3.13
24/12/2011 SPL Dundee Utd v Hibernian Hibernian 4.75 3.46
24/12/2011 SPL Hearts v Motherwell Hearts 2.20 1.56
24/12/2011 SPL St Mirren v Rangers St Mirren 8.50 6.60

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Peterborough Notts Forest 2.05 1.49
26/12/2011 Championship Reading v Brighton Reading 1.80 1.31
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33
27/12/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Notts County Notts County 5.00 3.68
26/12/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Exeter Wycombe 2.45 1.77
26/12/2011 Premiership Stoke v Aston Villa Aston Villa 4.33 3.13
24/12/2011 SPL Hearts v Motherwell Hearts 2.20 1.56

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Peterborough Notts Forest 2.05 1.49
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33
26/12/2011 Championship Reading v Brighton Reading 1.80 1.31

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Braintree Braintree 4.57 3.36
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Peterborough Notts Forest 2.05 1.49
26/12/2011 Championship Reading v Brighton Reading 1.80 1.31
26/12/2011 League 1 Brentford v Bournemouth Bournemouth 4.00 2.85
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33
27/12/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Notts County Notts County 5.00 3.68
26/12/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Exeter Wycombe 2.45 1.77
26/12/2011 League 1 Yeovil v Charlton Yeovil 4.33 3.15
26/12/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Accrington Accrington 3.35 2.38
26/12/2011 League 2 Northampton v Burton Northampton 2.70 1.94
26/12/2011 Premiership Stoke v Aston Villa Aston Villa 4.33 3.13
24/12/2011 SPL Hearts v Motherwell Hearts 2.20 1.56

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Reading v Brighton Reading 1.80 1.31
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Braintree Braintree 4.57 3.36
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Peterborough Notts Forest 2.05 1.49
26/12/2011 Championship Reading v Brighton Reading 1.80 1.31
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33
27/12/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Notts County Notts County 5.00 3.68
26/12/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Exeter Wycombe 2.45 1.77
26/12/2011 League 2 Northampton v Burton Northampton 2.70 1.94
26/12/2011 Premiership Stoke v Aston Villa Aston Villa 4.33 3.13
24/12/2011 SPL Hearts v Motherwell Hearts 2.20 1.56

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Reading v Brighton Reading 1.80 1.31
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Peterborough Notts Forest 2.05 1.49
26/12/2011 Championship Reading v Brighton Reading 1.80 1.31
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33
27/12/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Notts County Notts County 5.00 3.68
26/12/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Exeter Wycombe 2.45 1.77
26/12/2011 Premiership Stoke v Aston Villa Aston Villa 4.33 3.13
24/12/2011 SPL Hearts v Motherwell Hearts 2.20 1.56

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Reading v Brighton Reading 1.80 1.31
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Peterborough Notts Forest 2.05 1.49
26/12/2011 Championship Reading v Brighton Reading 1.80 1.31
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Reading v Brighton Reading 1.80 1.31
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Braintree Braintree 4.57 3.36
26/12/2011 Bsq Prem Ebbsfleet v Hayes Hayes 3.82 2.82
26/12/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Forest Green Forest Green 3.50 2.55
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Peterborough Notts Forest 2.05 1.49
26/12/2011 League 1 Brentford v Bournemouth Bournemouth 4.00 2.85
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33
26/12/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bury Bury 3.40 2.46
27/12/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Notts County Notts County 5.00 3.68
26/12/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Exeter Wycombe 2.45 1.77
26/12/2011 League 2 Cheltenham v Shrewsbury Cheltenham 2.52 1.78
26/12/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Accrington Accrington 3.35 2.38
26/12/2011 Premiership West Brom v Man City West Brom 7.50 5.90
24/12/2011 SPL Hearts v Motherwell Hearts 2.20 1.56

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Braintree Braintree 4.57 3.36
26/12/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Forest Green Forest Green 3.50 2.55
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Peterborough Notts Forest 2.05 1.49
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33
26/12/2011 League 1 Scunthorpe v Bury Bury 3.40 2.46
27/12/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Notts County Notts County 5.00 3.68
26/12/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Accrington Accrington 3.35 2.38

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Forest Green Forest Green 3.50 2.55
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Peterborough Notts Forest 2.05 1.49
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33
27/12/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Notts County Notts County 5.00 3.68

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Braintree Braintree 4.57 3.36
26/12/2011 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Forest Green Forest Green 3.50 2.55
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Peterborough Notts Forest 2.05 1.49
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33
27/12/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Notts County Notts County 5.00 3.68

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Braintree Braintree 4.57 3.36
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Peterborough Notts Forest 2.05 1.49
26/12/2011 League 1 Brentford v Bournemouth Bournemouth 4.00 2.85
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33
27/12/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Notts County Notts County 5.00 3.68
26/12/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Exeter Wycombe 2.45 1.77
26/12/2011 League 2 Morecambe v Accrington Accrington 3.35 2.38
24/12/2011 SPL Hearts v Motherwell Hearts 2.20 1.56

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Bsq Prem Cambridge v Braintree Braintree 4.57 3.36
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 Championship Notts Forest v Peterborough Notts Forest 2.05 1.49
26/12/2011 League 1 Preston v Carlisle Carlisle 3.20 2.33
27/12/2011 League 1 Sheff Utd v Notts County Notts County 5.00 3.68
26/12/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Exeter Wycombe 2.45 1.77
24/12/2011 SPL Hearts v Motherwell Hearts 2.20 1.56

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Exeter Wycombe 2.45 1.77
26/12/2011 League 2 Northampton v Burton Northampton 2.70 1.94
24/12/2011 SPL Hearts v Motherwell Hearts 2.20 1.56

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Exeter Wycombe 2.45 1.77
26/12/2011 League 2 Northampton v Burton Northampton 2.70 1.94
24/12/2011 SPL Hearts v Motherwell Hearts 2.20 1.56

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
26/12/2011 Championship Burnley v Doncaster Burnley 1.80 1.34
26/12/2011 League 1 Wycombe v Exeter Wycombe 2.45 1.77
26/12/2011 League 2 Northampton v Burton Northampton 2.70 1.94
24/12/2011 SPL Hearts v Motherwell Hearts 2.20 1.56

Thursday, 22 December 2011

Midweek Results

A very quick update from the midweek games.

Algorithm one had no bets, algorithm two had 2 bets, 2 winners and algorithm three had one bet, one loser.

Overall, established systems made a profit of 7.53pts for H/A betting and 4.49pts for DNB betting. New systems lost 1pt for both types of betting.

Apologies for the quick update. Really short of time tonight.

It's a very, very busy set of fixtures coming up as you'll see tomorrow night on here!


Tuesday, 20 December 2011

The Great Escape

Sometimes when I’m watching the games unfold on a Saturday, I get a feeling very early on it’s going to be a good day or a bad day. I’m not always right and with so many late goals causing massive swings for or against you, it’s always difficult to know for sure whether you are going to make a profit or not.

As Saturday unfolded, the only thing I could be sure about was that I was facing a substantial loss! Not only that, I was maybe also witnessing the biggest let down I’ve ever had on a football bet and if that had happened, I’d have been really sick!

Things started so well. If you read my post last week about the number of times teams appear on my systems, you will have picked up the fact that in 5 and a bit seasons, there had been 68 bets where teams had appeared on all 20 systems. On Saturday, Burnley were the 69th bet where this had occurred.

The ROI on these bets was 49.1% and therefore, I felt like there was suddenly huge pressure on this game. Strange really as if I had never looked at the stats on this, I’d have never worried about it so much as it has happened a few times already this season. There were 9 previous times this season that teams had met this criteria. 9 bets, 5 wins and 4 losses. A profit of 2.13pts and an ROI of 23.67%.

Not sure why but for these previous 9 times, I didn’t feel as much pressure was on the game as was on Burnley on Saturday. Maybe it was because I’d thrown an extra £10 on Burnley which made them my biggest bet of the season but then again, doesn’t quite make sense when I had more than £10 on many other teams!

Anyway, I felt a lot of pressure with that game for some reason. Brighton had a man sent off in 6th and 12th minutes off the game. Not sure how often teams lose 2 players in 12 minutes at the start of a game but Burnley were now playing against 9 men for 78 minutes of the game. Surely it was a matter of how many goals they would score?

Well…no. They did score in the 32nd minute but that was it. Every time they went across to the game on Soccer Saturday, it was about Burnley dominating possession and Brighton playing on the counter attack. Late on, they went across and Brighton had gone close to equalising.

Honestly, I don’t think I’ve sweated so much on a game in my life. Given how other events were unfolding (I didn’t have a winning team on all the other games on system 6-21 which meant a potential disaster!), I knew I needed them to hold on.

As it turned out, Burnley held on against the 9 men, Middlesboro came from 2-1 behind to beat Cardiff and West Brom scored in the 89th minute to beat Blackburn. My only other winner was Lincoln to win in the conference.

17 bets this weekend, 4 winners. Absolute rubbish……Or is it?

As the title suggests, it was The Great Escape this weekend as my systems came to the rescue.

Algorithm one had 14 bets, 3 winners, 6 draws and 5 losers. A loss of 3.75pts for H/A betting and a loss of 0.71pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm two had 13 bets, 3 winners, 5 draws and 5 losers. A loss of 2.75pts for H/A betting and a loss of 0.71pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm three had 11 bets, 3 winners, 4 draws and 4 losers. A profit of 0.38pts for H/A betting and a profit of 1.19pts for DNB betting.

Looking at these core results, you can see how much of a disaster it would have been if West Brom, Middlesboro and Burnley hadn’t all won!

Anyway, as usually happens on days like this, the combined systems limited the damage. However, this weekend, they not only limited the damage, they somehow managed to make a profit!

As the combined systems filtered the bets, the bets got stronger and stronger.

System 7-22 (is there a better football system on the planet over the last season and a bit?) somehow managed to find 4 bets at the weekend and find 2 winners for a profit of 2.5pts! Amazing when I think that I only hit 4 winners in 17 games but then again, amazing is what this system does week in, week out.

Overall, the established systems made a profit of 3.15pts for H/A betting and a profit of 1.17pts for DNB betting. The new systems made a loss of 8.22pts for H/A betting and a profit of 1.72pts for DNB.

I think that going forward, it’s important to realise that there are now 5 ‘sets’ of systems on the go. I tend to think about established v old but in reality, within the established systems, I have the 5 single systems and the 6 combined systems. Performance looks nothing like the same for both portfolios, so it’s important to recognise the sets of systems for what they are.

Likewise, within the new portfolio, I have 3 sets of systems. I have systems 31, 32 and 33 which are based on DNB ratings and are fairly unique. I then cross refer these systems with the systems from my first two sets of ratings and that creates the new combined systems 6-32, 21-31, 6-21-31. Lastly, I have the 3 systems which aren’t based on my ratings but are based on some crazy Similar Game Model methodology which appears to be useless this season. This is systems TOX, STOY and STOZ.

I always steer people towards the established systems and in particular the combined systems and this was also the thoughts of the Secret Betting Club when they looked at my systems last season. Hence, these systems are the most important to me for obvious reasons. Most people follow these, I follow these and I always tell others to follow these.

After that, systems 6,7,8,21 and 22 are the next important systems since these are used by the combined systems. In addition, I know some people use these core systems to create other systems to use.

After that, the most important are obviously 31,32 and 33 as these are ultimately new systems which are then going to be combined with my first two sets of systems to create more systems.

We then have the combined systems involving 31-33 and any other systems.

Lastly, and in a sense, the least important, would be the SGM systems since they are a bit off the wall and totally unproven in the sense I don’t even know if the methodology works, never mind the systems!

I'm forever being asked which systems to follow........



Midweek Bets

Here's the midweek bets. A bit of a non event really!

The Football Analyst Bets for 20th-21st December

System 6
None

System 7
None

System 8
None

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/12/2011 Premiership Newcastle v West Brom West Brom 4.33 3.11
21/12/2011 Premiership QPR v Sunderland Sunderland 3.10 2.19

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
21/12/2011 Premiership QPR v Sunderland Sunderland 3.10 2.19

System 6-21
None

System 6-22
None

System 7-21
None

System 7-22
None

System 8-21
None

System 8-22
None

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
20/12/2011 Bsq Prem Hayes v Fleetwood Hayes 5.88 4.54

System 32
None

System 33
None

System 6-32
None

System 21-31
None

System 6-21-31
None

System TOX
None

System STOY
None

System STOZ
None

Saturday, 17 December 2011

Busiest day of the season so far for these systems....

A little shocked at the number of bets thrown up on these SGM systems today. Not exactly a make or break day but considering they are down on the season so far, they can do with a good bloody day for me to justify the work to find the bets!

Obviously, most of these teams below are the biggest bets on the other systems too, so it has the potential to be a disaster of a day I suspect if things go badly. Massive average odds today with very few home bets, so let's hope it's a good day for Aways!

Good luck.

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.45
17/12/2011 League 1 Charlton v Oldham Oldham 6.00 4.30
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.11
17/12/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.06
17/12/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 2.90 2.20
17/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v St Mirren St Mirren 4.50 3.23

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.45
17/12/2011 League 1 Charlton v Oldham Oldham 6.00 4.30
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.11
17/12/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.06
17/12/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 2.90 2.20
17/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v St Mirren St Mirren 4.50 3.23

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.45
17/12/2011 League 1 Charlton v Oldham Oldham 6.00 4.30
17/12/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Colchester Hartlepool 2.46 1.77
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.06
17/12/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.29
17/12/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 2.90 2.08
17/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v St Mirren St Mirren 4.50 3.30

Friday, 16 December 2011

Weekend Bets

A very busy weekend for the systems. The next 5 weeks will make or break my season I suspect, so the fun starts this weekend. It is going to be a manic few weeks over the Festive period. I expect to have around 600 system bets in this period, so it will be hard work to keep on top of things!

The bets for TOX, STOY and STOZ will be posted tomorrow before kick-off. Not had time to do these bets yet.

Good luck.


The Football Analyst Bets for 17th-19th December

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/12/2011 Bsq Prem York v Kidderminster York 1.80 1.34
17/12/2011 Championship Blackpool v Watford Watford 4.20 3.01
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37
17/12/2011 Championship Cardiff v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3.75 2.65
17/12/2011 League 1 Charlton v Oldham Oldham 6.00 4.56
17/12/2011 League 1 Exeter v Scunthorpe Scunthorpe 2.90 2.07
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.11
17/12/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.18
17/12/2011 League 2 Plymouth v Hereford Hereford 3.10 2.21
17/12/2011 Premiership Blackburn v West Brom West Brom 3.20 2.27
17/12/2011 Premiership Fulham v Bolton Bolton 6.45 4.83
18/12/2011 Premiership Man City v Arsenal Arsenal 5.50 4.09
17/12/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 2.90 2.06
17/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v St Mirren St Mirren 4.50 3.21

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/12/2011 Bsq Prem York v Kidderminster York 1.80 1.34
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.11
17/12/2011 Premiership Blackburn v West Brom West Brom 3.20 2.27
17/12/2011 Premiership Fulham v Bolton Bolton 6.45 4.83
17/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v St Mirren St Mirren 4.50 3.21

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/12/2011 Bsq Prem Stockport v Alfreton Alfreton 3.00 2.15
19/12/2011 Bsq Prem York v Kidderminster York 1.80 1.34
17/12/2011 Championship Blackpool v Watford Watford 4.20 3.01
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37
17/12/2011 Championship Cardiff v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3.75 2.65
17/12/2011 League 1 Charlton v Oldham Oldham 6.00 4.56
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.11
17/12/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.18
17/12/2011 Premiership Blackburn v West Brom West Brom 3.20 2.27
17/12/2011 Premiership Fulham v Bolton Bolton 6.45 4.83
18/12/2011 Premiership Man City v Arsenal Arsenal 5.50 4.09
17/12/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 2.90 2.06
17/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v St Mirren St Mirren 4.50 3.21

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/12/2011 Bsq Prem York v Kidderminster York 1.80 1.34
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.11
17/12/2011 Premiership Blackburn v West Brom West Brom 3.20 2.27
18/12/2011 Premiership Man City v Arsenal Arsenal 5.50 4.09
17/12/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 2.90 2.06

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/12/2011 Bsq Prem York v Kidderminster York 1.80 1.34
17/12/2011 Championship Blackpool v Watford Watford 4.20 3.01
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37
17/12/2011 Championship Cardiff v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3.75 2.65
17/12/2011 League 1 Charlton v Oldham Oldham 6.00 4.56
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.11
17/12/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.18
17/12/2011 Premiership Blackburn v West Brom West Brom 3.20 2.27
17/12/2011 Premiership Fulham v Bolton Bolton 6.45 4.83
18/12/2011 Premiership Man City v Arsenal Arsenal 5.50 4.09
17/12/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 2.90 2.06
17/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v St Mirren St Mirren 4.50 3.21

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/12/2011 Bsq Prem York v Kidderminster York 1.80 1.34
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.11
17/12/2011 Premiership Blackburn v West Brom West Brom 3.20 2.27
18/12/2011 Premiership Man City v Arsenal Arsenal 5.50 4.09
17/12/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 2.90 2.06

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/12/2011 Bsq Prem York v Kidderminster York 1.80 1.34
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.11
17/12/2011 Premiership Blackburn v West Brom West Brom 3.20 2.27
17/12/2011 Premiership Fulham v Bolton Bolton 6.45 4.83
17/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v St Mirren St Mirren 4.50 3.21

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/12/2011 Bsq Prem York v Kidderminster York 1.80 1.34
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.11
17/12/2011 Premiership Blackburn v West Brom West Brom 3.20 2.27

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37

System 8-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/12/2011 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Lincoln Lincoln 4.33 3.17
19/12/2011 Bsq Prem York v Kidderminster York 1.80 1.34
17/12/2011 Championship Blackpool v Watford Watford 4.20 3.01
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37
17/12/2011 Championship Cardiff v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3.75 2.65
17/12/2011 League 1 Charlton v Oldham Oldham 6.00 4.56
17/12/2011 League 1 Hartlepool v Colchester Hartlepool 2.46 1.74
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.11
17/12/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.18
17/12/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 2.90 2.06
17/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v St Mirren St Mirren 4.50 3.21

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/12/2011 Championship Blackpool v Watford Watford 4.20 3.01
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37
17/12/2011 Championship Cardiff v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3.75 2.65
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.11
17/12/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.18
17/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v St Mirren St Mirren 4.50 3.21

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
17/12/2011 Championship Blackpool v Watford Watford 4.20 3.01
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37
17/12/2011 Championship Cardiff v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3.75 2.65
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.11
17/12/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.50 3.25
17/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v St Mirren St Mirren 4.50 3.21

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/12/2011 Bsq Prem York v Kidderminster York 1.80 1.34
17/12/2011 Championship Blackpool v Watford Watford 4.20 3.01
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37
17/12/2011 Championship Cardiff v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3.75 2.65
17/12/2011 League 1 Charlton v Oldham Oldham 6.00 4.56
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.11
17/12/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.18
17/12/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 2.90 2.06
17/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v St Mirren St Mirren 4.50 3.21

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
19/12/2011 Bsq Prem York v Kidderminster York 1.80 1.34
17/12/2011 Championship Blackpool v Watford Watford 4.20 3.01
17/12/2011 Championship Brighton v Burnley Burnley 3.30 2.37
17/12/2011 Championship Cardiff v Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 3.75 2.65
17/12/2011 League 1 Charlton v Oldham Oldham 6.00 4.56
17/12/2011 League 1 Stevenage v Tranmere Tranmere 4.33 3.11
17/12/2011 League 2 Gillingham v Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 4.33 3.18
17/12/2011 SPL Kilmarnock v Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 2.90 2.06
17/12/2011 SPL Motherwell v St Mirren St Mirren 4.50 3.21

System TOX
TBC

System STOY
TBC

System STOZ
TBC

One for the future?

I thought I’d post this piece of analysis as I’ve been working on it for a wee while, behind the scenes. Conscious of the fact that the blog is in danger of falling off a cliff in respect of losing readership as I’m not really finding enough new topics to post about. Of course, people come back and follow the bets but I always hoped the blog would be more than just people using it to gain free bets!

Anyway, what I’ve been looking at is trying to devise a TFA ‘super system’. I’m conscious of the fact that people see 20 systems, think it’s too complicated and decide they’d rather follow a simple blog or a simple tipster giving out a few selections every weekend. May not be as profitable as what I’m doing (unlikely to be as profitable I would suspect!) but then again, you won’t need to read endless amounts of posts to understand which bets to follow as they are laid out on a plate for you.

My first idea was to try to look at pinpointing the very best Home and Away bets that appear on my systems but being honest, I could go to town on backfitting results here to suit myself. If you back Home bets that only appear on systems X, Y and Z together, you’ll be thinking you can retire off the future profits when in reality, I’m simply falling into a trap of backfitting.

This season, I have a few systems on the go involving the new systems from algorithm three and of course, I have the pretty useless (so far!) SGM bets on TOX, STOY and STOZ.

Therefore, at the moment, I have 20 systems on the go. What are the results depending on how many times each bet appears?

As you can probably imagine, this isn’t exactly a project to undertake a few weeks before Christmas and with massive databases of results for each algorithm and set of systems. I could easily get lost in data for weeks, if not months here as trying to manipulate over 25,000 bets on all the systems isn’t as easy as you may think as my data for each algorithm isn’t identical.

I won’t bore you all too much with the fact it’s taken a good few hours to get to the results I wanted to find. Of course, going one step further and pulling out data by season, month and so on isn’t impossible but it would involve creating a brand new data set of all 25,000 games and being honest, I don’t have the time. Not even sure it’s a summer job but I reckon I could do it next summer.

Anyway, here’s the results below along with a graph which I’ll explain below.



Simply, the table shows the returns by backing teams depending on how many times a team appears on the 20 systems. For example, only backing teams that appear on all 20 systems will have only generated 68 bets in 5 and a bit seasons. However, you would have made a profit of 33.4pts for H/A and 20.2pts for DNB.

As you work down the table, you can see that the fewer times a team appears on the systems, the less of a return is achieved.

If you graph the cumulative ROI as you work down the number of times appear on a system, then you can see it is a fairly steady trend. As a team drops from 10 systems, to 9 systems to 8 systems and so on, the drop in return is almost linear!

In addition, you can see that as the number of times a team appears drops, the gap between H/A returns and DNB returns narrows a little.

All very fascinating stuff.

What does it mean? Well, one thing I haven’t managed to achieve yet is to build a single TFA system that people with little time can follow. They may only want 3 or 4 bets a week with a simple staking plan. These results effectively show that I can build this single system for next season. I already own some of the best football systems that are available but I think I can add to it by having a single system that people can follow that is easy to follow and simple to track and will save them from having to look through 20 systems to come up with the bets for themselves.

Although it may appear like I’m not doing much at times as there isn’t much to read on the blog, you can rest assured that I’m usually looking at some other way to maximise the edge I have for myself and others following. ;)

The weekend bets will be posted on the blog tonight.

Sunday, 11 December 2011

Weekend Update

Firstly, there are no midweek bets this week, so don’t expect a post with any bets. There is only one game of interest and although Aberdeen offer slight value at 11/4, it doesn’t qualify as a bet on any system.

OK, a quick round up of the weekend. Apologies for the late post on Friday night. Hopefully anyone following the blog missed the Barnet game which meant it was probably a smaller loss than everyone else who’s following the bets. One advantage of following via the blog I guess. Would have been a disadvantage if Barnet had won though!

It was a strange weekend. I was short of time before I posted the bets up, so I didn’t get a chance to comment. I was going to say that I was apprehensive this weekend due to the fact that there were a number of weak bets at big odds away from home and as always, you need some luck.

As it turned out, Blackpool letting in a late equaliser along with Plymouth meant it was a losing weekend. If Plymouth could have held on, it would have been an OK weekend, so it’s a case of thin margins and all that.

When I see so few systems bets on systems 7-21 to 8-22 (there were none this weekend), my inclination is to believe that the bets thrown up aren’t going to be the best and the results this weekend back this up. However, with a bit more luck, it wouldn’t have been that way, so I don’t think you can read too much into one set of fixtures. There have been a few times this season when I wished the more selective systems had found more bets, so it’s swings and roundabouts I suspect. Maybe a few points saved this weekend on the systems but in the long-run, it won’t matter too much I suspect.

Algorithm one had 12 bets and only found 3 winners. A loss of 4.23pts for H/A betting and a loss of 3.43pts for DNB.

Algorithm two had 13 bets and found 5 winners. It found Wigan at 5.72 to beat West Brom, so it ensured a profitable weekend for this algorithm. A profit of 3.99pts for H/A betting and a profit of 1.3pts for DNB.

Algorithm three found one winner from 5 bets. A loss of 1.5pts for H/A betting and a loss of 1.53pts for DNB betting.

As expected, the systems couldn’t do much with these bets this weekend.

The established systems lost 5.47pts for H/A betting and 7.56pts for DNB betting.

The new systems were slightly worse. A loss of 15pts for H/A betting and a loss of 11.7pts for DNB betting.

I should mention that the SGM systems again had a very poor weekend. The record of Aways on these systems is shocking so far this season (25pts lost from 99 games). It’s amazing how different this record is to the rest of my systems based on shot supremacy. On the other hand, it has been a very tough season so for Homes on all my systems apart from these SGM systems. Homes have made a profit of 15pts from 57 games. I don’t have another system this season that can match this home record at the moment.

Too early to draw meaningful conclusions but for whatever reason, the Away wins this season just haven’t happened on these SGM systems. Interestingly, DNB is doing better for the Aways, so it may just be a case that a few teams that should have won have drawn the game and considering the average aways are 4.0+, then it makes a massive difference to the overall results.

Anyway, these systems are on trial this season along with all the other new systems from this season, so if they don’t start performing, they’ll be dropped as possible systems to be used next season and not added to the official TFA portfolio of systems.

Be back later this week with the weekend bets.



Friday, 9 December 2011

Weekend Bets

Posting these earlier tonight since Barnet kick off in 15 mins. Apologies for the late notice, just in from work.

Good luck.

The Football Analyst Bets for 9th/10th December

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10-Dec-11 Championship Barnsley v Ipswich Barnsley 2.06 1.49
10-Dec-11 Championship Middlesbrough v Brighton Brighton 4.97 3.59
10-Dec-11 Championship Southampton v Blackpool Blackpool 6.13 4.71
10-Dec-11 League 1 Colchester v Bury Bury 3.58 2.60
10-Dec-11 League 1 Leyton Orient v Exeter Leyton Orient 2.10 1.52
10-Dec-11 League 1 Scunthorpe v Carlisle Carlisle 2.92 2.10
10-Dec-11 League 1 Sheff Utd v Rochdale Rochdale 6.00 4.59
10-Dec-11 League 2 Aldershot v Shrewsbury Aldershot 2.75 1.96
10-Dec-11 League 2 Bradford v Plymouth Plymouth 4.65 3.40
10-Dec-11 League 2 Crawley v Burton Burton 7.25 5.64
10-Dec-11 League 2 Morecambe v Oxford Oxford 2.88 2.06
09-Dec-11 League 2 Torquay v Barnet Barnet 4.33 3.21

System 7
None

System 8
None

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10-Dec-11 Championship Barnsley v Ipswich Barnsley 2.06 1.49
10-Dec-11 Championship Middlesbrough v Brighton Brighton 4.97 3.59
10-Dec-11 League 1 Colchester v Bury Bury 3.58 2.60
10-Dec-11 League 1 Leyton Orient v Exeter Leyton Orient 2.10 1.52
10-Dec-11 League 1 Scunthorpe v Carlisle Carlisle 2.92 2.10
10-Dec-11 League 1 Sheff Utd v Rochdale Rochdale 6.00 4.59
10-Dec-11 League 2 Wimbledon v Accrington Accrington 3.50 2.47
10-Dec-11 League 2 Aldershot v Shrewsbury Aldershot 2.75 1.96
10-Dec-11 League 2 Bradford v Plymouth Plymouth 4.65 3.40
10-Dec-11 League 2 Crawley v Burton Burton 7.25 5.64
10-Dec-11 League 2 Morecambe v Oxford Oxford 2.88 2.06
09-Dec-11 League 2 Torquay v Barnet Barnet 4.33 3.21
10-Dec-11 Premiership West Brom v Wigan Wigan 5.72 4.26

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09-Dec-11 League 2 Torquay v Barnet Barnet 4.33 3.21

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10-Dec-11 Championship Barnsley v Ipswich Barnsley 2.06 1.49
10-Dec-11 Championship Middlesbrough v Brighton Brighton 4.97 3.59
10-Dec-11 League 1 Colchester v Bury Bury 3.58 2.60
10-Dec-11 League 1 Leyton Orient v Exeter Leyton Orient 2.10 1.52
10-Dec-11 League 1 Scunthorpe v Carlisle Carlisle 2.92 2.10
10-Dec-11 League 1 Sheff Utd v Rochdale Rochdale 6.00 4.59
10-Dec-11 League 2 Aldershot v Shrewsbury Aldershot 2.75 1.96
10-Dec-11 League 2 Bradford v Plymouth Plymouth 4.65 3.40
10-Dec-11 League 2 Crawley v Burton Burton 7.25 5.64
10-Dec-11 League 2 Morecambe v Oxford Oxford 2.88 2.06
09-Dec-11 League 2 Torquay v Barnet Barnet 4.33 3.21

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09-Dec-11 League 2 Torquay v Barnet Barnet 4.33 3.21

System 7-21
None

System 7-22
None

System 8-21
None

System 8-22
None

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10-Dec-11 League 1 Sheff Utd v Rochdale Rochdale 6.00 4.59
10-Dec-11 League 2 Wimbledon v Accrington Accrington 3.50 2.47
10-Dec-11 League 2 Bradford v Plymouth Plymouth 4.65 3.40
10-Dec-11 League 2 Crawley v Burton Burton 7.25 5.64
09-Dec-11 League 2 Torquay v Barnet Barnet 4.33 3.21

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10-Dec-11 League 2 Wimbledon v Accrington Accrington 3.50 2.47
09-Dec-11 League 2 Torquay v Barnet Barnet 4.33 3.21

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09-Dec-11 League 2 Torquay v Barnet Barnet 4.33 3.21

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
09-Dec-11 League 2 Torquay v Barnet Barnet 4.33 3.21

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10-Dec-11 League 1 Sheff Utd v Rochdale Rochdale 6.00 4.59
10-Dec-11 League 2 Wimbledon v Accrington Accrington 3.50 2.47
10-Dec-11 League 2 Bradford v Plymouth Plymouth 4.65 3.40
10-Dec-11 League 2 Crawley v Burton Burton 7.25 5.64
09-Dec-11 League 2 Torquay v Barnet Barnet 4.33 3.21

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10-Dec-11 League 1 Sheff Utd v Rochdale Rochdale 6.00 4.59
10-Dec-11 League 2 Bradford v Plymouth Plymouth 4.65 3.40
10-Dec-11 League 2 Crawley v Burton Burton 7.25 5.64
09-Dec-11 League 2 Torquay v Barnet Barnet 4.33 3.21

System TOX
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10-Dec-11 League 1 Sheff Utd v Rochdale Rochdale 6.00 4.59
10-Dec-11 League 2 Aldershot v Shrewsbury Aldershot 2.75 1.96
10-Dec-11 League 2 Bradford v Plymouth Plymouth 4.65 3.40
10-Dec-11 League 2 Morecambe v Oxford Oxford 2.88 2.06
09-Dec-11 League 2 Torquay v Barnet Barnet 4.33 3.21

System STOY
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10-Dec-11 League 1 Sheff Utd v Rochdale Rochdale 6.00 4.59
10-Dec-11 League 2 Aldershot v Shrewsbury Aldershot 2.75 1.96
10-Dec-11 League 2 Bradford v Plymouth Plymouth 4.65 3.40
10-Dec-11 League 2 Morecambe v Oxford Oxford 2.88 2.06
09-Dec-11 League 2 Torquay v Barnet Barnet 4.33 3.21

System STOZ
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
10-Dec-11 League 1 Sheff Utd v Rochdale Rochdale 6.00 4.59
10-Dec-11 League 2 Bradford v Plymouth Plymouth 4.65 3.40
09-Dec-11 League 2 Torquay v Barnet Barnet 4.33 3.21

Wednesday, 7 December 2011

Midweek Wipeout

As the title suggest, it was a total wipeout in midweek. Thankfully, most of the best systems didn’t have any bets, so it wasn’t quite as bad as it sounds. Here’s a very quick update.

Bath was the key game but after taking a 1-0 lead, they collapsed (not for the first time this season!) and lost 4-1.

The other couple of teams thrown up lost and drew and therefore, there were no winners.

Algorithm one had 2 bets and suffered a loss and a draw. I won’t quote the losses as it isn’t difficult to calculate!

Algorithm two had 1 bet and 1 loser.

Algorithm three had 3 bets, 2 losers and a draw.

Overall, the established systems lost 4pts for H/A betting and 3pts for DNB betting.

The new systems lost 8pts for H/A betting and 7pts for DNB betting.

Bit of a nothing week really but then again, when 9 systems come up with the same team away from home at odds of 4/1, it is only going to be a great midweek or a poor midweek.

I’ll be back on Friday with the weekend bets.



Tuesday, 6 December 2011

Have I found an edge?

I promised I’d post this last week but I forgot all about it if I’m honest. This only includes results up to the end of last month.


I showed a similar table last month but with 40 systems on the go (20 H/A and 20 DNB), it is difficult to look at it on one page.

This month, I’ve just shown the systems which have an ROI of 10%+ for their proofed results. In total, there are actually 18 systems from the 40 possible systems which have an ROI in excess of 10%. 6 systems are from this season (they’ll have fewer bets) but 12 systems are from last season.

So, I now manage 12 systems which have an ROI of 10%+ over a season and a bit.

Of course, this is slightly misleading as if a system like 7-22 DNB has an ROI of 10%+, it is odds on that system 7-22 H/A probably has a higher return.

Breaking it down then, the following systems have an ROI of 10%+. System 22 (H/A & DNB), System 6-22 (H/A & DNB), System 7-21 (H/A & DNB), System 7-22 (H/A & DNB), System 8-22 (H/A & DNB), System 6-21 (H/A), System 8-21 (H/A).

Hence, one could argue that I only really have 7 systems with a season and a bit results with an ROI above 10%. However, I only have 11 of these systems, so therefore, 7 of the 11 systems from last season have an ROI of 10%+.

Apologies if I’m boring anyone slightly but I know it is sometimes difficult to judge whether a set of football ratings have an edge or not. I know it more than anyone as over the past 2 years, I’ve often wondered whether I’d created an edge or not. It’s always difficult to know how many live results you need to see before you believe you have an edge. 100, 200, 500, 1,000, 2,000, 5,000……

After last weekend, I now have 4,771 proofed bets from the 20 systems. If you treat H/A and DNB as separate systems as I tend to do, then that doubles the number of proofed bets to 9,542 bets.

Do I believe I have an edge using my football ratings? Well, at the end of this month, this will be exactly two years since I started out on this journey to find an edge on football. I think for the first time in all this time, I actually believe deep down that I have created an edge for myself (and those others following) in this market. I will have proofed 5,000 bets (10,000 if we include DNB) and I think that sample is enough evidence in my eyes to show that an edge exists.

Obviously, it is one thing to find an edge in a market but it is even more difficult to maintain the edge. As well as keeping ahead of bookmakers, I also know that my ratings are similar in some aspects to many others who sell football tips for example. I didn’t come up with the idea of shot supremacy ratings (I wish I had as I’d get better odds on many of my bets!) and therefore, at some point, someone smarter than me will come along and create a set of ratings that are better than mines. After all, I’ve done the same to others over the past season and a bit.

In the meantime, we should all enjoy this while it lasts.

Midweek Bets

Here’s the bets for tonight. Only really one game that matters although it doesn’t appear on too many systems. May look like a strong bet at first glance but in reality, it appears on the 6 new systems which aren’t as good as the systems from last season, so I’d be more inclined to believe the established systems that it is a fairly weak bet.

Anyway, we’ll see what happens.

The Football Analyst Bets for 6th December

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Bath Bath 5.00 3.75
06-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Griimsby v Mansfield Mansfield 3.17 2.26

System 7
None

System 8
None

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Bath Bath 5.00 3.75

System 22
None

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Bath Bath 5.00 3.75

System 6-22
None

System 7-21
None

System 7-22
None

System 8-21
None

System 8-22
None

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Forest Green v Tamworth Tamworth 3.75 2.70
06-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Bath Bath 5.00 3.75
06-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Griimsby v Mansfield Mansfield 3.17 2.26

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Bath Bath 5.00 3.75

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Bath Bath 5.00 3.75

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Bath Bath 5.00 3.75

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Bath Bath 5.00 3.75

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
06-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Kidderminster v Bath Bath 5.00 3.75

System TOX
None

System STOY
None

System STOZ
None

Sunday, 4 December 2011

From the sublime to the ridiculous......

If there is one thing I’ve learned over the past 2 years, it’s that when things are going like a dream, you’ll soon get brought down to earth. No matter how good things are going, the next poor run is just waiting to creep up on you. Well, this weekend was a real weekend of two halves.

Having been following these systems for 2 years now, I sort of know what to expect and when things click, I honestly don’t believe I’ve seen another gambling system that looks so good. As I was watching events unfold on Saturday, I was sort of thinking to myself that it can’t honestly get better than this.

Burnley at 6.5 beat West Ham from a goal behind, Barnsley at 4.0 throw away a 3-0 lead and come back to win 4-3, St Johnstone beat Hearts at odds of 4.25, Inverness beat St Mirren at 4.00 and Watford score a late goal at 3.10 to beat Ipswich. If these results happened in a month of bets, you’d be pleased but for them to happen on the same day, it really is amazing!

42 bets on the combined systems on Saturday, 54.75pts profit and seriously, I’m thinking to myself, this can’t last! I’ve followed up a record month of over 100pts on these systems with a day which has made over 50pts. The new systems didn’t do bad either with a profit of 30.25pts from 32 games. Unbelievable. Absolutely sublime……

Roll on Sunday.

4 bets appearing on multiple systems including Everton at 1.75. I was thinking to myself, at the very least, if Everton win, it will be a very, very good weekend.

0-1, 0-1, 0-1 and 1-2. 4 games, 4 losers. Ridiculous!

Of course, if I break the weekend down, the disappointing aspect is that the 3 highest rated bets this weekend lost. Aberdeen, Birmingham and Everton were the 3 biggest bets for anyone following the systems and at the end of the day, all 3 lost. However, these selective systems with the 30%+ ROI so far this season have to hit some losers at some point, so I’m not overly concerned. Disappointed for anyone following system 7-22 for example as they hit 2 losers but then again, the ROI drops to a paltry 36% for the season after this weekend. Hardly a disaster.

Anyway, enough of my ramblings. Onto the results.

Algorithm one had 13 bets this weekend. A profit of 13.35pts for H/A betting and a profit of 7.01pts for DNB betting. Outstanding performance on this algorithm.

Algorithm two had 13 bets this weekend too. A profit of 10.85pts for H/A betting and a profit of 6.24pts for DNB betting. Again, a very good performance from this algorithm.

Algorithm three had 11 bets this weekend and generated a profit of 9.75pts for H/A betting and a profit of 6.05pts for DNB betting. Again, amazing performance from this algorithm.

Usually, when each algorithm does so well, you hope the systems take these bets and reproduce them on as many systems as possible but unfortunately, this weekend, the winners didn’t appear on too many systems and the systems did a remarkable job in filtering out the winners and keeping the losers!

The established systems made a profit of 37.75pts for H/A betting and a profit of 14.61pts for DNB betting. There were 59 bets this weekend, so it was still an amazing ROI overall on the systems. Let’s just say I’ve had worse starts to a month!

The new systems made a profit of 23.25pts for H/A betting and a profit of 14.15pts for DNB betting. There were only 39 bets this weekend, so again, an amazing ROI on these systems too.

Overall, I feel like I should probably be much happier after this weekend than I am. I made a profit from the systems I follow, I’m hoping some others did too but I find it hard to be overly excited knowing that system 7-22 had 2 losers this weekend. On the other hand, the 6 combined systems made a profit of 12.2pts from 23 games, so I’d have taken that to start the month if offered it. Over 50% ROI and I'm feeling a bit flat after the weekend!

I’ll be back with the midweek bets on Tuesday morning. There’s a couple of Championship games this midweek along with a full card in the Bsq Premier.



Friday, 2 December 2011

Weekend Bets

Here's the bets for the weekend. A fairly busy weekend considering the number of leagues in play but as usual, we'll see what happens.

I'll be back after the weekend with the results as usual.

The Football Analyst Bets for 3rd/4th December

System 6
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Barrow v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 3.75 2.70
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Bath v Telford Bath 2.50 1.76
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Newport v Lincoln Newport 2.00 1.39
03-Dec-11 Championship Brighton v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.40 2.42
04-Dec-11 Championship Cardiff v Birmingham Birmingham 3.70 2.67
03-Dec-11 Championship Ipswich v Watford Watford 3.10 2.19
03-Dec-11 Championship Peterboro v Barnsley Barnsley 4.00 2.94
03-Dec-11 Championship West Ham v Burnley Burnley 6.50 4.85
03-Dec-11 Premiership Blackburn v Swansea Swansea 3.72 2.67
04-Dec-11 Premiership Everton v Stoke Everton 1.75 1.28
03-Dec-11 SPL Hearts v St Johnstone St Johnstone 4.25 3.00
03-Dec-11 SPL Kilmarnock v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.50 2.50
03-Dec-11 SPL St Mirren v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.86

System 7
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
04-Dec-11 Premiership Everton v Stoke Everton 1.75 1.28
04-Dec-11 Championship Cardiff v Birmingham Birmingham 3.70 2.67
03-Dec-11 SPL Kilmarnock v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.50 2.50
03-Dec-11 SPL St Mirren v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.86

System 8
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03-Dec-11 SPL Kilmarnock v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.50 2.50

System 21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Barrow v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 3.75 2.70
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Darlington v Forest Green Forest Green 3.20 2.28
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Newport v Lincoln Newport 2.00 1.39
03-Dec-11 Championship Brighton v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.40 2.42
04-Dec-11 Championship Cardiff v Birmingham Birmingham 3.70 2.67
03-Dec-11 Championship Ipswich v Watford Watford 3.10 2.19
03-Dec-11 Championship Peterboro v Barnsley Barnsley 4.00 2.94
03-Dec-11 Championship West Ham v Burnley Burnley 6.50 4.85
04-Dec-11 Premiership Everton v Stoke Everton 1.75 1.28
04-Dec-11 Premiership Wolves v Sunderland Sunderland 3.23 2.28
03-Dec-11 SPL Hearts v St Johnstone St Johnstone 4.25 3.00
03-Dec-11 SPL Kilmarnock v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.50 2.50
03-Dec-11 SPL St Mirren v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.86

System 22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03-Dec-11 Championship Brighton v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.40 2.42
04-Dec-11 Championship Cardiff v Birmingham Birmingham 3.70 2.67
03-Dec-11 Championship Ipswich v Watford Watford 3.10 2.19
04-Dec-11 Premiership Everton v Stoke Everton 1.75 1.28
03-Dec-11 SPL Hearts v St Johnstone St Johnstone 4.25 3.00

System 6-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Barrow v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 3.75 2.70
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Newport v Lincoln Newport 2.00 1.39
03-Dec-11 Championship Brighton v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.40 2.42
04-Dec-11 Championship Cardiff v Birmingham Birmingham 3.70 2.67
03-Dec-11 Championship Ipswich v Watford Watford 3.10 2.19
03-Dec-11 Championship Peterboro v Barnsley Barnsley 4.00 2.94
03-Dec-11 Championship West Ham v Burnley Burnley 6.50 4.85
04-Dec-11 Premiership Everton v Stoke Everton 1.75 1.28
03-Dec-11 SPL Hearts v St Johnstone St Johnstone 4.25 3.00
03-Dec-11 SPL Kilmarnock v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.50 2.50
03-Dec-11 SPL St Mirren v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.86

System 6-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03-Dec-11 Championship Brighton v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.40 2.42
04-Dec-11 Championship Cardiff v Birmingham Birmingham 3.70 2.67
03-Dec-11 Championship Ipswich v Watford Watford 3.10 2.19
04-Dec-11 Premiership Everton v Stoke Everton 1.75 1.28
03-Dec-11 SPL Hearts v St Johnstone St Johnstone 4.25 3.00

System 7-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
04-Dec-11 Championship Cardiff v Birmingham Birmingham 3.70 2.67
04-Dec-11 Premiership Everton v Stoke Everton 1.75 1.28
03-Dec-11 SPL Kilmarnock v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.50 2.50
03-Dec-11 SPL St Mirren v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.86

System 7-22
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
04-Dec-11 Championship Cardiff v Birmingham Birmingham 3.70 2.67
04-Dec-11 Premiership Everton v Stoke Everton 1.75 1.28

System 8-21
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03-Dec-11 SPL Kilmarnock v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.50 2.50

System 8-22
None

System 31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Barrow v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 3.75 2.70
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Darlington v Forest Green Forest Green 3.20 2.28
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Newport v Lincoln Newport 2.00 1.39
03-Dec-11 Championship Brighton v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.40 2.42
04-Dec-11 Championship Cardiff v Birmingham Birmingham 3.70 2.67
03-Dec-11 Championship Peterboro v Barnsley Barnsley 4.00 2.94
03-Dec-11 Championship West Ham v Burnley Burnley 6.50 4.85
04-Dec-11 SPL Dundee Utd v Celtic Dundee Utd 6.50 4.88
03-Dec-11 SPL Hearts v St Johnstone St Johnstone 4.25 3.00
03-Dec-11 SPL Kilmarnock v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.50 2.50
03-Dec-11 SPL St Mirren v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.86

System 32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Barrow v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 3.75 2.70
04-Dec-11 Championship Cardiff v Birmingham Birmingham 3.70 2.67
03-Dec-11 SPL Kilmarnock v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.50 2.50

System 33
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Barrow v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 3.75 2.70
04-Dec-11 Championship Cardiff v Birmingham Birmingham 3.70 2.67
03-Dec-11 SPL Kilmarnock v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.50 2.50

System 6-32
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Barrow v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 3.75 2.70
04-Dec-11 Championship Cardiff v Birmingham Birmingham 3.70 2.67
03-Dec-11 SPL Kilmarnock v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.50 2.50

System 21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Barrow v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 3.75 2.70
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Darlington v Forest Green Forest Green 3.20 2.28
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Newport v Lincoln Newport 2.00 1.39
03-Dec-11 Championship Brighton v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.40 2.42
04-Dec-11 Championship Cardiff v Birmingham Birmingham 3.70 2.67
03-Dec-11 Championship Peterboro v Barnsley Barnsley 4.00 2.94
03-Dec-11 Championship West Ham v Burnley Burnley 6.50 4.85
03-Dec-11 SPL Hearts v St Johnstone St Johnstone 4.25 3.00
03-Dec-11 SPL Kilmarnock v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.50 2.50
03-Dec-11 SPL St Mirren v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.86

System 6-21-31
Date League Game Selection Odds DNB Odds
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Barrow v Ebbsfleet Ebbsfleet 3.75 2.70
03-Dec-11 Bsq Prem Newport v Lincoln Newport 2.00 1.39
03-Dec-11 Championship Brighton v Notts Forest Notts Forest 3.40 2.42
04-Dec-11 Championship Cardiff v Birmingham Birmingham 3.70 2.67
03-Dec-11 Championship Peterboro v Barnsley Barnsley 4.00 2.94
03-Dec-11 Championship West Ham v Burnley Burnley 6.50 4.85
03-Dec-11 SPL Hearts v St Johnstone St Johnstone 4.25 3.00
03-Dec-11 SPL Kilmarnock v Aberdeen Aberdeen 3.50 2.50
03-Dec-11 SPL St Mirren v Inverness Inverness 4.00 2.86

System TOX
None

System STOY
None

System STOZ
None

Wednesday, 30 November 2011

Monthly Review Completed

I’ve updated the monthly results section on the blog. If you click on the link and scroll down, you’ll find it! You could also navigate via the tabs at the top. ;)

http://the-football-analyst.blogspot.com/p/201112-monthly-results.html

As always, lots of ways to look at the results of these systems but a few highlights which stand out to me which people reading the blog may not know are:

• The 11 TFA established systems (or the ones alive last season!) achieved their best results in terms of pts won since December 2008. When you consider Dec 2008 had 359 bets and achieved 128pts profit, then a profit of 107.7pts this month from only 224 bets can possibly be described as a better performance.
• In terms of ROI (48.1%), it was the 3rd best month from the two fully backtested years and last season’s live results. Hence, the 3rd best month from the last 31 months of results. In a way, this doesn’t tell the full story as May-11 is the 2nd best month as it had an ROI of 52.3% but that was only over 101 bets.
• The systems which are being proofed by the Secret Betting Club for my proofed results (the 6 combined systems) are now sitting with an ROI of 17.1% since they went live. This is over a sample of 1,364 bets. November-11 is the highest month by far for ROI at 72.5% although the pts won 52.2pts is 1.6pts less than last month! Hence, the two best months these proofed results have had is the last 2 months.

I could go on and on about the results but as I always say, it’s only one month. If we look at all the established systems in total for this season, they have now had 977 bets and generated an ROI of 12.2%. They achieved 9.4% last season across 2,784 bets, so based on the number of bets, we’re only 1/3 of the way through the season. A long way to go but the systems are in a good position so far. Given they suffered record losses in September, it’s amazing how quickly things can turn at this game.

I’ll be back on Friday with the weekend bets. I’ll probably do another post tomorrow though showing all the live results on each system to date on a single page. I like analysing this as it is interesting to compare the systems from this season with last season as well as comparing a system with DNB returns against H/A returns. All very interesting.

Hope you all had a good month too. :)
One of the best things about following systems and having no human intervention is that there are no mind games involved when it comes to the betting side of things. After Saturday’s loss, I would have happily settled for seeing no bets this midweek on the systems if I’m being perfectly honest. Therefore, when I was doing the work to pull out the bets, I cringed a little when I saw Newport as a bet.

Not only did they appear on every established system and the 3 similar game models (ignore the fact the DNB systems didn’t appreciate how strong a bet they were!), but they were also one of the highest rated bets I’ve had all season. Simply, according to my ratings, Hayes were playing like a team that should be bottom of the league and although Newport were very inconsistent, they were playing so much better than their league position suggested, it was impossible to believe that they were 7/4 to win this game (or 2.62 when I gave the bet out).

They’d beaten Fleetwood (top 3 team) 4-1 away from home and played them off the park, lost narrowly to Tamworth (top half side), beat Kettering easily 3-1 (worst team in the league aside from Hayes on my ratings at the moment), drew 0-0 away at Wrexham (top 3 team), lost narrowly at home to Ebbsfleet, drew 2-2 with Grimsby (top half side) and lost narrowly to Luton (top 3 side) 1-0 on Saturday by conceding a last minute goal.

Based solely on the last 7 games, Newport are a top half side and considering they’d played the top 3 sides in the league and competed very well, then they should have made mincemeat of a team like Hayes who had lost 5 of their last 6 games!

It’s not often ratings work out as well as they did in that game last night but Newport should win that game roughly 50% of the time according to my ratings. I therefore smiled when they started at 11/10 in places at kick-off after steaming in from an opening show of 7/4 and the fact they were 3-0 up at half time was very sweet.

I’m sure everyone in the market who uses football ratings in this league had this one down as a value away win but again, the systems were able to spot how good a bet this actually was and I therefore staked it accordingly, along with others who follow the systems I suspect.

Anyway, it’s only one game but it felt great to bounce back after Saturday with such a strong bet that won so easily.

Algorithm one had 2 bets and 2 winners. A profit of 2.45pts and 1.25pts for DNB betting.

Algorithm two had the same 2 bets and 2 winners. A profit of 2.45pts for H/A betting and 1.25pts DNB.

Algorithm three didn’t have such a great night. 4 bets and only one winner. A loss of 1.35pts for H/A betting and a loss of 1.10pts for DNB betting.

With the 100% record on the first two algorithms, the established systems had to have a good night. A profit of 22.15pts for H/A betting and a profit of 11.60pts. There were 16 bets.

The new systems didn’t have such a good night but it wasn’t too bad. A profit of 4.90pts for H/A betting and a profit of 1.37pts for DNB betting. There were 11 bets.

Overall then, a really good night for the established systems. When you consider they lost 28pts on Saturday for H/A and 16pts for DNB, to win 22pts and 11.60pts back so quickly is a great end to the month. For those following the combined systems 6-21 thru to 8-22, all of the losses were recouped from the weekend, so we can start next month from a decent closing position this month.

I’ll get on with the monthly review and update on here when it’s done.